Slide 1Dr. MRUTYUNJAY MOHAPATRA DIRECTOR GENERAL OF
METEOROLOGY
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
NEW DELHI-110003
[email protected]
As per study (1970-2019), 33% of hydrometeorological disasters
are
caused by TCs.
One out of three events that killed most people globally is
tropical
cyclones (TC).
Seven out of ten disasters that caused biggest economic losses in
the
world from 1970-2019 are tropical cyclones.
It is the key interest of 85 WMO Members prone to tropical
cyclones.
In terms of deaths due to TCs, casualties of 300,000 in Bangladesh
in
1970 is still ranked as the biggest casualties for the last five
decades;
Cyclone Monitoring, forecasting & warning services deal
with
application of all modern technologies into operational
services.
Hon’ble PM’s Statement after Cyclone Hudhud hit Visakhapatnam
coast
In this Cyclone, India Meteorological Department provided accurate
forecast by applying science and technology. The actual track,
intensity and landfall were same as predicted
STATEMENT BY MEDIA ON PARADIGM SHIFT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECASTING BY IMD
• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 1999): SCIENTIFIC FAILURES. The
scientific systems whose responsibility it was to predict the
contours of the cyclone did a far from perfect job. To be able to
do a better job next time around, an integrated approach to cyclone
studies is needed.
• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 2013): ACING THE STORM. The India
Meteorological Department, with improved models and
observation systems and greater forecast skills, predicts
accurately not only the intensity of cyclone Phailin but also its
landfall.
Cyclone Phailin, Hudhud or Fani are not an isolated cases of
success
Due to several initiatives taken by IMD, Ministry of Earth sciences
(MoES), Govt of India, the cyclone forecast has improved in recent
years significantly
Forecast Performance during 2013
•VSC HUDHUD), Oct., 2014
Cyclone Forecast Accuracy The forecast accuracy is at par with
leading centres of the world.
The cyclone track forecast errors of IMD has reduced from 124 km in
2009-13 to 86 km in 2014-18 for 24 hr forecast, from 202 to 132 km
for 48 hrs forecast and from 268 to 177 km for 72 hrs
forecast.
The uncertainty in track forecast for all the lead period upto 5
days has been reduced by about 30% during the same period.
The 24 hrcyclone landfall forecast error has reduced from 91 km to
42 km during the same period.
The error in intensity forecast is also less (about 10-15 knots for
24-72 hr forecasts).
The accuracy of adverse weather warning including rainfall,
thunderstorm, fog. storm surge and wind also improved significantly
by about 10-20% in recent five years compared to previous five
years.
Outcome Due to above improvement in cyclone forecast accuracy,
there has
been increase in confidence of disaster managers and public
leading to
• Minimum loss of human lives (limited to double digits) in
recent years
• Decrease in area of evacuation by 100 km in 5 years and
hence evacuation cost.
• Awards and Appreciations to India and IMD from various
national and international agencies.
OUTCOME: Loss Of Lives Due To Very Severe Cyclones crossing
coast
• Significant reduction in human deaths due to cyclones • Number of
deaths less than 100 in recent years compared to
thousands due to similar cyclones in past, • For example. Odisha
Super Cyclone in 1999 (10,000)
Cyclone warning improvement over the years • Super
Cyclone-1999
• No genesis forecast
• Accuracy was moderate
• 3 day Genesis forecast
• Objective track, intensity and
landfall forecast-5 day lead
• Accurate impact based warning
• Super Cyclone-1999 • Max wind:140kt
CYCLONE, 1999 VSCS PHAILIN,
2013 1. Loss of human life 9887 21 2. Ex-gratia paid by Govt.
@
Rs 6 lakhs
3. Area of evacuation 500 km (approx) 180 km
4. Cost of evacuation per km (10 lakhs assumed)
50 crores 18 crores
Calculation is based on assumption that similar amounts would have
been spent for evacuation and payment of ex-gratia in 1999 as in
2013
• There is decrease in area of evacuation by 300 km in 20 years and
hence evacuation cost by 60 percent
• Decrease in ex-gratia paid by Govt. to survivors by about 99
percent as compared to 1999.
HOW DID IT HAPPEN? • What was the game changer? Is it Odisha Super
Cyclone causing
10,000 human loss?
with IMD as a partner
• Modernisation Programme of IMD-2007
IMD decides to modernise cyclone warning System through its
own
modernisation programme
• Modernisation programme of IMD as well as cyclone warning
system
starts -2008
UPGRADATION OF CYCLONE WARNING SERVICES
• Upgradation of cyclone warning services taken up in holistic
manner
addressing all components of early warning system including:
(i) policy and planning,
(ii) Introduction of new tools and technology for monitoring,
analysis,
forecasting and warning services
forecasting and warning services
(vii) outreach,
IMPROVEMENT IN POLICY AND PLANNING • Vision 2020 document was
prepared in 2010
• Benchmarking to fix target of forecast accuracy of landfall,
track,
intensity, heavy rainfall, wind and storm surge in 2010
• 20% by 2015 and 40% improvement by 2020 with base year as
2010.
Standard Operation Procedure for
• Daily Watch and Methodology
• Dissemination mechanism and triggering
National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project by NDMA
Cyclone management guidelines of NDMA in 2008.
Hazard & Vulnerability Atlas as per requirement of NDMA
Institutional Mechanism: Establishment of Ministry of Earth
Science
COMPONENTS OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM • Institutional Mechanism
• Early Warning system
Institutional Mechanism
IMD is mandated to monitor and issue warnings regarding tropical
cyclones over the north Indian ocean for the country.
International Responsibility: IMD also acts as RSMC to provide
tropical cyclone advisories to 13
countries under WMO/ESCAP Panel (Bangladesh, India, Maldives,
Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Yemen, UAE, Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, Iran.
Acts a Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre for international civil
aviation Provides Global maritime Distress Support System (GMDSS)
over NIO.
Improvement in policy and planning
Action Runs of different Models, Consecutive runs from the same
model, Ensemble runs ("choosing the best member") Numerical
forecasts
• Geoststionary Satellites • Polar Orbiting Satellites
• AWS • ARG • SYNOP • BUOYS • AVIATION • SHIPS
Early Warning System
SOP : BULLETINS AND WARNINGS for NATIONAL PURPOSE Four stage
cyclone
warning i. Sea area bulletin ii. Coastal weather
bulletin iii. Bulletins for Indian
navy iv. Fisheries warnings v. Port warnings vi. Aviation warning
vii. Bulletins for AIR/
Doordarshan/ press viii. CWDS bulletins ix. Warnings for
registered/ designated users.
x. Impact based forecast and warning using historical damage
potential
Pre-cyclone watch (Yellow) – Issued to Cabinet Secretary and Senior
Officials indicating formation of a cyclonic disturbance –
potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone and coastal belt to
be affected.
Cyclone Alert (Orange)- Issued at least 48 hrs in advance
indicating expected adverse weather conditions.
Cyclone warning (Red) – Issued at least 24 hrs in advance
indicating latest position of Tropical Cyclone, intensity, time and
point of landfall, storm surge height, type of damages expected and
actions suggested.
Post-Landfall Outlook- Issued about 12 hrs before landfall &
till cyclone force winds prevail; District Collectors of interior
districts besides the coastal areas are also informed.
Finally a ‘De-Warning’ message is issued when the Tropical Cyclone
weakens into Depression stage.
Introduction of New Methodology
• Fishermen warning • Text cum Graphics
bulletin for entire North Indian Ocean days in stead of only for
coastal area
• Validity period of fishermen warning increased from one day to
five days
EXPECTED DAMAGE AND SUGGESTED ACTION Intensity Damage expected
Action Suggested Deep Depression 50 – 61 kmph (28-33 knots)
Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures.
Fishermen advised not to venture into the open seas.
Cyclonic Storm 62 – 87 kmph (34-47 knots)
Damage to thatched huts. Breaking of tree branches causing minor
damage to power and communication lines
Total suspension of fishing operations
Severe Cyclonic Storm 88-117 kmph (48-63 knots)
Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power
and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees.
Flooding of escape routes.
Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to
be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain
indoors.
Improvement in policy and planning
EXPECTED DAMAGE AND SUGGESTED ACTION Intensity Damage expected
Action Suggested Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 118-166 kmph (64-89
knots)
Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Partial disruption of power and
communication line. Minor disruption of rail and road traffic.
Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape
routes.
Total suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from
coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
People in affected areas to remain indoors.
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm 167-221 kmph (90-119 knots)
Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings.
Large-scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption
of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential
threat from flying debris.
Total suspension of fishing operations. Extensive evacuation from
coastal areas. Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
People in affected areas to remain indoors.
Super Cyclonic Storm 222 kmph and more (120 knots and more)
Extensive structural damage to residential and industrial
buildings. Total disruption of communication and power supply.
Extensive damage to bridges causing large- scale disruption of rail
and road traffic. Large-scale flooding and inundation of sea water.
Air full of flying debris.
Total suspension of fishing operations. Large-scale evacuation of
coastal population. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in
vulnerable areas. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY
(i) Introduction of new technology for Observations automated
weather stations, high wind speed recorders, Ocean buoys, Doppler
weather radars, GPS-Sondes and satellite based monitoring tools for
estimation of location and intensity, monitoring, analysis,
modelling, forecasting, early warning generation and dissemination,
(ii) Adaption of new versions of global & regional models •
Implementation of atmosphere Ocean coupled model (iii) Tropical
Cyclone Module and Ensemble prediction system (EPS) (iv) Synthetic
vortex of cyclone for NWP model improvement. (v) IIT Delhi storm
surge model and INCOIS Coastal inundation model (vi) Digital
Forecasting workstation and PWS
Extended Range Forecast (ERF) of Cyclogenesis •First information
about formation of LPA over EIO & adj. south BoB during week
ending 25th and beginning of week ending at 2nd May with
probability of intensification into depression was indicated in the
ERF issued on 18th April.
WEEK 1: 19.04.2019- 25.04.2019
WEEK 2: 26.04.2019- 02.05.2019
• Based on large scale process like MJO
• NWP models like IMD GFS, GPP, NCEP GFS, NCUM and NEPS indicated
no cyclogenesis during next 2 weeks.
• GEFS and ECMWF indicated low pressure system around 26th.
• MoES CFSv2 model indicated cyclogenesis during later part of
week1 with 30-40% probability.
Short to Medium Range Genesis Forecast • Likely formation of LPA
over EIO & adj. southwest BoB to the SE of Sri
Lanka around 26th April & intensification into D on 27th was
predicted on 21st.
• Further modified on 22nd indicating an LPA over the same region
on 25th April and likely intensification into a D during subsequent
48 hours.
NWP modeling : TC track forecasting methods i) Statistical
Techniques
Analogue, Persistence, Climatology, CLIPER i) Synoptic Techniques –
Empirical Techniques ii) Satellite Techniques Techniques iii) Radar
Techniques v) NWP Models
• Individual models (Global and regional) • IMDGFS (1534), NCUM,
ARP (Meteo France, ECMWF, JMA, UKMO,
NCEP, WRF (IMD), HWRF (IMD)-coupled with POM, UM-R • MME (IMD) and
MME based on Tropical Cyclone Module (TCM) • EPS (Strike
probability, Location specific probability : • IMD, NCMRWF and
TIGGE products are available Development of EPS of regional models
in progress HWRF coupling with POM implemented since cyclone Ockhi
and
coupling with HYCOM in progress with INCOIS MME is run from the
stage of T1.5 instead of T2.5 since 2018
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY
NWP modeling : TC intensity Forecasting methods
i) Statistical Techniques
i) Synoptic Techniques
ii) Satellite Techniques
iii) Radar Techniques
v) NWP Models
vi) Dynamical Statistical Model (SCIP) : SCIP is being run from
T1.5
stage since 2018
vii) RI technique
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY
Adoption of new versions of global and regional deterministic and
ensemble prediction systems,
96 h 72 h 48 h
24 h Ensemble Pred. Model GEFS(1534), UMEPS
Global Models GFS(T1534), Unified Model
Regional Models WRF (9KM/3KM), HWRF(18/6/2kms)
Nowcasting Tools ( SWIRLS,ARPS
Model) Warnings Activities
Nowcasting
24 h 00 h 120 h
By 2020:1-3 km Regional multi-model prediction system,
ocean-atmosphere-land surface coupled severe weather pred. systems,
Parametric models and Expert systems – severe weather Warning up to
5-7 days, Forecast outlook up to 10-15 days.
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY
CYCLONE FANI: Multi-model tracks
http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/tropcyclones/Forecast/strike_new!2014!03B_HUDHUD_05!2014100812!dummy!/
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
In te
ns ity
(k t)
Observed FC1(00Z-26APRIL2019) FC2(12Z-26APRIL2019)
FC3(00Z-27APRIL2019) FC4(12Z-27APRIL2019) FC5(00Z-28APRIL2019)
FC6(12Z-28APRIL2019) FC7(00Z-29APRIL2019) FC8(12Z-29APRIL2019)
FC9(00Z-30APRIL2019) FC10(12Z-30APRIL2019) FC11(00Z-01MAY2019)
FC12(12Z-01MAY2019) FC13(00Z-02MAY2019) FC14(12Z-02MAY2019)
Observed Track and Forecast based on 0530 hrs IST of 30th April (72
hrs prior to landfall) with cone of uncertainty & wind
distribution
Introduction of New Methodology Introduction of 120 hrs track
forecast
alongwith cone of uncertainty Introduction of 120 hrs wind
distribution forecast for 28, 34. 50 and 64 knots wind
threshold
A
B
forecast every 5 years
Reduction in Cone of Uncertainty in 2014
Reduction in Cone of Uncertainty in 2019
Consistency in Track, Intensity & Landfall F/C •Landfall point
and intensity at the time of landfall was correctly predicted at
least 72 hrs in advance. •The forecast issued on 30th April, 1st
& 2nd May were almost same as actual track as shown in Fig
below
Observed & forecast track based on 0530 IST/30th April (72 hrs
prior to landfall) of ESCS FANI indicating accurate landfall
prediction near Puri)
DATE/TIME IN IST
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE ASSOCIATED WITH ESCS “FANI” (BASED on IC – 02
May 1730 hr IST)
02/1730 IST
02/2330 IST
03/0530 IST
03/1130 IST
Hydro-meteorological Tools
Customized Rainfall Information System (CRIS) developed based on
GIS platform includes; Preparation of operational real time
rainfall maps, graphs and statistics (Daily ~130 rainfall products
are generated on real time basis)
RIVER BASIN-WISE SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND STATISTICS OF RAINFALL FOR
FLOOD
FORECASTING AND WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY
satellite and Raingauge
Hydromet support for Flood Forecasting in Cyclone
NWP Grid point WRF and GFS model forecast data operationally being
sent to CWC for flood forecasting.
WRF(ARW) (3x3) (00UTC & 12 UTC) for 3 days GFS (12x12) and UM
for 10 days GEFS, UMEPS for seven days Probabilistic QPF Heavy
rainfall
OUTPUT PRODUC
Monitoring & Forecasting of VSCS BULBUL
MME Forecast 5-9 Nov
Telephone, Tele-fax, Mobile Phones (SMS) through IMD severe weather
network, Agromet Network, INCOIS network.
VHF/HFRT/Police Wireless Satellite based cyclone warning
dissemination System Aeronautical Fixed Terminal Network Global
telecommunication system (GTS) : Websites, Dedicated website for
cyclone (rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in) Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM,
FM, Comminity Radio, Private TV) :
Prasar Bharati and private broadcasters NAVTEX , Internet (e-mail),
ftp GAMES and NAVIK
Advances in Warning Dissemination Mechanism
Number of unique visitors on IMD website
(imd.gov.in) during cyclone Fani
• Popular talks/lectures and articles
A Glorious Decade of IMD (2006-2016)
Cyclone Warning in India: A Success Story,
Early Warning System of IMD.
• Users Workshop
response to media and people
• Documentation on each cyclone and its forecast since 2008
• Pre-cyclone exercise with disaster managers
• Verification of all forecasts
(ii) Data bases prepared for R&D activity:
(a) Cyclone E-Atlas and Web-Atlas
(b) Six hourly best track parameters of cyclones during
1982-2018,
(c) Digitisation of Annual RSMC Reports during 1990-2018,
(d) Hazard proneness of coastal districts,
(e) Tropical Cyclone Energy Metrix,
(f) Life Cycle,
(i) Landfall characteristics
R&D AND CAPACITY BUILDING
Cyclone Hazard Analysis Cyclone Hazard Prone Districts Based on
Frequency Intensity Wind strength PMP PMSS
Mohapatra (2015), JESS
Presentation Notes
Background: 1. 96 districts including 72 touching the coast and 24
not touching coast, but lying within 100 km from coast are
classified based on Frequency of cyclone Frequency of severe
cyclone Probable maximum Precipitation Wind strength Storm surge
Out of 96 districts, 12 are very highly prone, 41 highly prone,
30moderately prone and 13 less prone. The above classification is
based on the recommendations of National Disaster Management Agency
(NDMA). Work was carried out by a sub-committee constituted by NDMA
with member from India Meteorological Department. 2. The cyclone
warning service in India is a Three tier system, being monitored at
IMD HQ, New Delhi Cyclone Warning Division finalises the
monitoring, forecasting and warning information in case of a
cyclone forming over north Indian Ocean. 2. The warnings are issued
in four stages, viz., precyclone watch at least 72 hrs in advance,
cyclone alert at least 48 hrs in advance, cyclone warning at least
24 hrs in advance and post-landfall outlook at least 12 hrs in
advance of landfall. 3. The warning bulletins are issued at
national level by cyclone warning division, at regional level by
Area Cyclone Warning Centre and at state level by Cyclone Warning
Centres every three hrs in cyclone stage. 3. Cyclone Warning
Division acts as WMO recognised Regional Specialised Meteorological
Centre (RSMC) to provide Tropical Cyclone Advisories to north
Indian Ocean rim countries. 4. It also acts as Tropical Cyclone
Advisory Centre for international civil aviation and provides
tropical cyclone advisories to Airport Meteorological Offices. 5.
Dissemination mechanism: Telephone, Tele-fax, Mobile Phones (SMS)
through IMD severe weather network, Agromet Network, INCOIS network
VHF/HFRT/Police Wireless Satellite based cyclone warning
dissemination System Aeronautical Fixed Terminal Network Global
telecommunication system (GTS): Internet (e-mail), ftp Websites
(rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in) Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM, FM,
Comminity Radio, Private TV) : Prasar Bharati and private
broadcasters INMARSAT
National Lab to Lab Network programmes initiated and continued
with
• IITM for global modeling, cyclogenesis forecast and ERF
• INCOIS for storm surge modeling, HWRF modeling and warning
dissemination
• NIOT for meteorological buoy network planning and data exchange
and evaluation
• NCMRWF for implementation of global deterministic and ensemble
models,
• ISRO for customized satellite product development, planning and
validation of products
• IAF, Indian Navy for meteorological observations including
lightning data
• IIT Delhi for storm surge modeling, coastal inundation
• IIT, Bhubaneswar for HWRF Modeling
R&D AND CAPACITY BUILDING
International Bilateral/Multilateral network programmes conducted
with
(i). NOAA USA for adaptation of HWRF model in IMD,
(ii). UKMET Office for Global and Regional Modeling, IBF
(iii) JMA for Ensemble prediction system,
(iv). WMO/ESCAP Panel for regional cyclone operational plan,
(v) WMO Typhoon Committee for synergized SOP for coastal
multi-
hazard warning,
southeast Asia
(vii) WMO’s SWFDP-Bay of Bengal for forecast on heavy rain,
wind,
wave & storm surge to member countries,
(viii) IBTrACS, USA
Way Ahead Still there are gaps in technology vis-a-vis
capibility.
Gap in scientific understanding required for better forecasting
that
includes:
Interaction between cyclone, Ocean, the surrounding
environment
Internal physical and dynamical processes in clouds.
Gap in observational and modeling systems for forecasting with
high
spatial resolution
There is still scope for improvement in Forecast skill with the
above
Warning dissemination to be further improved for most
vulnerable
groups at last mile (Along the coast and in the sea).
MoES is continuously upgrading its plan and strategy for all the
above
Lessions learnt from past cyclones will be used for future
Thank you
Slide Number 1
Slide Number 2
Hon’ble PM’s Statement after Cyclone Hudhud hit Visakhapatnam
coast
Statement by Media on Paradigm Shift in Tropical Cyclone
Forecasting by IMD
Cyclone Phailin, Hudhud or Fani are not an isolated cases of
success
Slide Number 6
Cyclone Forecast Accuracy
Outcome
OUTCOME: Loss Of Lives Due To Very Severe Cyclones crossing
coast
Cyclone warning improvement over the years
OUTCOME
Institutional Mechanism
Slide Number 19
Introduction of New Technology
Slide Number 27
Slide Number 34
Slide Number 42
Way Ahead