Current Trends & Projection Methodology

Current Trends & Projection Methodology

October 27, 2021

Blue Valley Schools | Finance & Operations

• Current Enrollment Facts• Projection Methodology• District Growth and Enrollment Factors• Projection Accuracy• Current Projections



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Blue Valley Schools: Enrollment History Since 1990-91

ES Portion MS Portion HS Portion

Source: BVSD Enrollment Data, Finance & Operations Division


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TSBVSD Annual Enrollment Change

Filling the K-12 Deficit

Annual Net Growth K to Prev. 12th Deficit


Count Day Cohort Growth, Previous Year to Current

2019/20 2020/21 Cohort ChangeGrade Count Grade Count

K 1,363 --K 1,540 1 1,504 -361 1,581 2 1,516 -652 1,540 3 1,549 93 1,608 4 1,597 -114 1,683 5 1,676 -75 1,636 6 1,646 106 1,684 7 1,682 -27 1,787 8 1,794 78 1,779 9 1,790 119 1,749 10 1,759 1010 1,926 11 1,938 1211 1,821 12 1,794 -2712 1,917 --

Total 22,251 21,608 -89

Count Day Cohort Growth, Previous Year to Current

2020/21 2021/22 Cohort ChangeGrade Count Grade Count

K 1,554 --K 1,363 1 1,515 1521 1,504 2 1,611 1072 1,531 3 1,604 733 1,548 4 1,574 264 1,597 5 1,631 345 1,676 6 1,702 266 1,646 7 1,676 307 1,682 8 1,696 148 1,794 9 1,824 309 1,790 10 1,761 -29

10 1,759 11 1,752 -711 1,938 12 1,947 912 1,794 --

Total 21,622 21,847 465


• Blue Valley’s growth comes largely from cohort growth, where a class picks up additional students as it progresses from kindergarten through 12th grade.

• Derived from “move-up” housing and good student retention.


The Projection ModelA collection of individual projections for 520 different “planning areas,” influenced by :

• Current student counts• Building permits• Engagement with developers and cities• Retention rates (neighborhood turnover)• Transfer data• Special Education placement data• Immersion Programs• Economic forecasts





Long-term population growth forecasts in the Kansas City metropolitan region show Blue Valley receiving a large share.

(Source: Mid-America Regional Council)


• New plats and development proposals can be found on both the east and west sides of the district.

• Single family residential development activity has increased from recent years.

• The west side of the district currently has most of the new homes, but there is renewed activity on the east side as well.


Most Active SF Subdivisions, 2019-2020

• The Willows 63• Terrybrook Farms 41• Mission Ranch 39• Century Farms 28• The Hills of Leawood 15• Coventry Valley 12• Watersedge 12• Glen Eagles 11• All others (each) < 10


Most Active SF Subdivisions, 2020-21

• Terrybrook Farms 85• The Willows 78• Mission Ranch 70• Sundance Ridge 43• Century Farms 34• The Hills of Leawood 28• Retreat at Maple Crest 26• Arbor View 25• Coventry Valley 18• GlenEagles 17• All others (each) < 15


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479 456 398 422 425

379 318 315 309 322 357 361 342

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Blue Valley Development Fast Facts:

• Through September 30th, Overland Park had approved 479 single-family house permits, compared with 237 for the same period last year, and 226 in 2019.

• 30-year fixed mortgage rates a three years ago had climbed to around 5%, but have dropped two or more whole points since that time, with averages near 3% and even lower for much of the past year.



• Neighborhoods are monitored for growth or decline in student population. This number is referred to as their “retention rate.”


These items are for discussion purposes only and do not represent recommended changes. Any recommended changes arising from the committee’s work will be detailed in a report to the Board of Education.

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2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Past & Projected Students: Study of Possible Elementary Adjustments

WSE (Add Walnut) WSE (Current) STI (Keep Walnut)STI (No Walnut/Sundance) STI (Current) BRE (Add Sundance)BRE (Current)

BLUE VALLEY HIGH

Potential Solutions: Closing BVH to incoming transfers could promote a modest amount of relief over time. Apermanent addition to replace mobileclassrooms is also recommended.


School Current Count 2017/18 2018/19 ProjectionCapacity (18/19) Type Enrollment Enrollment Type 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

1. Blue Valley Low 99.0% 97.4% 93.4% 89.4% 84.1%with mobiles 1,606 Head Count 1 1,614 1,638 Mid 101.8% 103.2% 102.3% 101.3% 99.0%

High 104.6% 108.9% 111.1% 113.3% 113.8%

Projection Year

School Current Count 2017/18 2018/19 ProjectionCapacity (18/19) Type Enrollment Enrollment Type 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

1. Blue Valley Low 116.4% 114.5% 109.8% 105.1% 98.9%1,366 Head Count 1 1,614 1,638 Mid 119.7% 121.3% 120.2% 119.1% 116.4%

High 122.9% 128.1% 130.6% 133.2% 133.8%

Projection Year

10 mobile classrooms

10 mobile classrooms


21,778 22,023 22,078 22,183 22,206 22,251

21,608 21,847

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5-Year Projections and Annual Head Counts

5-yr Proj. Span 4-Yr Proj. Span 3-Yr Proj. Span 2-Yr Proj. Span 1-Yr Proj. Span Head Count

Questions about:


Enrollment?Projection Methods?




• Most schools have fairly level enrollment over the 5-year period

• Cedar Hills, Leawood, Overland Trail, and Wolf Springs are the schools that may exceed 110% by the end of the 5-year projection period.

School Current Count 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 ProjectionCapacity (21/22) Type Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Type 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

1. Blue River Low 461 443 433 429 42224 Head Count 1 467 454 477 Mid 479 474 475 481 479

High 496 505 517 532 5362. Cedar Hills 24 Low 576 559 547 529 529

22 Head Count 1 649 596 593 Mid 589 582 583 572 5784 mobile classrooms High 602 606 618 614 627

3. Cottonwood Point 21 Low 350 344 343 325 33724 Head Count 1 401 374 340 Mid 358 357 361 345 362

High 365 370 380 366 3864. Harmony Low 490 482 466 455 443

26 Head Count 1 542 503 501 Mid 503 506 499 494 484High 516 530 531 533 526

5. Heartland 22 Low 385 402 395 390 39117 Head Count 1 401 368 380 Mid 393 417 415 416 420

High 401 432 436 441 4496. Indian Valley 20 Low 348 342 352 345 346


7. Lakewood 26 Low 521 508 492 497 48925 Head Count 1 613 557 545 Mid 531 525 515 526 520

2 mobile classrooms High 541 543 539 555 5528. Leawood Low 569 546 542 530 544


9. Liberty View 26 Low 415 402 395 393 38725 Head Count 1 435 416 415 Mid 426 420 418 419 416

High 437 439 442 446 44410. Mission Trail 24 Low 372 363 365 360 369


11. Morse 19 Low 330 333 315 315 31720 Head Count 1 387 379 357 Mid 339 349 336 341 346

2 mobile classrooms High 347 365 357 367 37512. Oak Hill Low 455 463 454 461 453


13. Overland Trail 24 Low 585 568 577 571 56926 Head Count 1 577 572 593 Mid 631 652 683 691 699

2 mobile classrooms High 677 736 789 812 82814. Prairie Star 22 Low 380 376 370 358 356


15. Stanley Low 299 282 273 269 26720 Head Count 1 312 314 312 Mid 310 303 299 300 299

High 322 324 324 330 33216. Stilwell Low 254 273 307 311 342


17. Sunrise Point 22 Low 456 444 427 412 40324 Head Count 1 392 403 451 Mid 469 467 457 445 436

High 482 490 487 477 47018. Sunset Ridge Low 348 346 331 337 342


19. Timber Creek 28 Low 589 567 564 555 56327 Head Count 1 623 596 618 Mid 605 597 603 601 615

2 mobile classrooms High 622 627 642 648 66620. Valley Park Low 572 556 541 520 505


21. Wolf Springs 24 Low 572 611 631 659 68225 Head Count 1 419 415 516 Mid 608 687 730 783 821

High 643 762 830 906 959Greenbush Virtual 0 0 38Source: Enrollment Projections and Historical Data, BVSD Finance and Operations Department1 Off icial Headcount for that school yearDistrict-based programs not included in projections > 110% Current Capacity

Year When # of Sections are Within Current Capacity< 75% Current Capacity

All buildings, regardless of shading color, are subject to potential boundary changes when necessary to balance enrollment across the district.

Blue Valley Elementary Schools 5-Year Enrollment Projections: 2022/23 to 2026/27Projection Year


School Current Count 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 ProjectionCapacity (21/22) Type Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Type 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

1. Blue River Low 461 443 433 429 42224 Head Count 1 467 454 477 Mid 479 474 475 481 479

High 496 505 517 532 5362. Cedar Hills 24 Low 576 559 547 529 529


3. Cottonwood Point 21 Low 350 344 343 325 33724 Head Count 1 401 374 340 Mid 358 357 361 345 362

High 365 370 380 366 3864. Harmony Low 490 482 466 455 443


5. Heartland 22 Low 385 402 395 390 39117 Head Count 1 401 368 380 Mid 393 417 415 416 420

High 401 432 436 441 4496. Indian Valley 20 Low 348 342 352 345 346


7. Lakewood 26 Low 521 508 492 497 48925 Head Count 1 613 557 545 Mid 531 525 515 526 520

2 mobile classrooms High 541 543 539 555 5528. Leawood Low 569 546 542 530 544


9. Liberty View 26 Low 415 402 395 393 38725 Head Count 1 435 416 415 Mid 426 420 418 419 416

High 437 439 442 446 44410. Mission Trail 24 Low 372 363 365 360 369


11. Morse 19 Low 330 333 315 315 31720 Head Count 1 387 379 357 Mid 339 349 336 341 346

2 mobile classrooms High 347 365 357 367 375

Blue Valley Elementary Schools 5-Year Enrollment Projections: 2022/23 to 2026/27Projection Year


High 347 365 357 367 37512. Oak Hill Low 455 463 454 461 453


13. Overland Trail 24 Low 585 568 577 571 56926 Head Count 1 577 572 593 Mid 631 652 683 691 699

2 mobile classrooms High 677 736 789 812 82814. Prairie Star 22 Low 380 376 370 358 356


15. Stanley Low 299 282 273 269 26720 Head Count 1 312 314 312 Mid 310 303 299 300 299

High 322 324 324 330 33216. Stilwell Low 254 273 307 311 342


17. Sunrise Point 22 Low 456 444 427 412 40324 Head Count 1 392 403 451 Mid 469 467 457 445 436

High 482 490 487 477 47018. Sunset Ridge Low 348 346 331 337 342


19. Timber Creek 28 Low 589 567 564 555 56327 Head Count 1 623 596 618 Mid 605 597 603 601 615

2 mobile classrooms High 622 627 642 648 66620. Valley Park Low 572 556 541 520 505


21. Wolf Springs 24 Low 572 611 631 659 68225 Head Count 1 419 415 516 Mid 608 687 730 783 821

High 643 762 830 906 959Greenbush Virtual 0 0 38Source: Enrollment Projections and Historical Data, BVSD Finance and Operations Department1 Off icial Headcount for that school yearDistrict-based programs not included in projections > 110% Current Capacity

Year When # of Sections are Within Current Capacity< 75% Current Capacity

All buildings, regardless of shading color, are subject to potential boundary changes when necessary to balance enrollment across the district.


• Aubry Bend and Oxford are projected to possibly exceed 110% capacity for their mid-range projection in the last year of the 5-year outlook.

• Aubry Bend sees a bump in enrollment next year thanks to large 5th grade classes at Morse and Timber Creek. The rate of growth slows after that.


• No high schools are expected to exceed 110% of their capacity in the 5-year projection period.

Questions about projections?



Facility Planning Committee

Documents

Current Trends & Projection Methodology