Current Surveys of Wholesale Current Surveys of Wholesale and Retail Tradeand Retail Trade

An Overview of the Wholesale and Retail Programs

Timothy WintersService Sector Statistics Division17 June 2011

0:00

Overview of Wholesale and Retail Overview of Wholesale and Retail Topic AreasTopic Areas

Importance of Wholesale and Retail Estimates Story Ideas Annual Surveys Monthly Surveys E-Commerce Statistics Survey Processing Benchmarking Data Dissemination Major Data Users

2

1:54

Importance of Wholesale and Retail Importance of Wholesale and Retail Trade EstimatesTrade Estimates

Provide most comprehensive data available on wholesale and retail activity in the U.S.

Significant inputs into Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates

Estimates influence financial markets Affect business decisions Indication of current economic trends

3

2:51

Retail Sales vs. GDPRetail Sales vs. GDP

4

6:10

Story Ideas- Wholesale & RetailStory Ideas- Wholesale & Retail

Example Headlines:• January Wholesale Trade Leap Confirms Recovery• Here’s Why Wholesalers are Bullish on the Economy• Retail sales show modest increase as gas and food prices eat

into disposable income• U.S. Online Retail Sales Grow 16.1% in 2010• The Economic Slowdown and Consumer Spending• Top Ten Retail Holiday Trends• Retailers Get Creative with Easter Promotions• The Road to Recovery Runs Through Retail

5

7:22

Annual Wholesale Trade Survey Annual Wholesale Trade Survey (AWTS)(AWTS)

NAICS Sector • 42 (Wholesale Trade)

Sample of 8,000 Companies• Merchant Wholesalers• Manufacturers’ Sales Branches & Offices (MSBOs)

Mandatory survey with high response Estimates benchmarked to the Census of

Wholesale Trade

6

10:30

Annual Wholesale Trade Survey Annual Wholesale Trade Survey (AWTS)(AWTS)

Data Items Collected• Sales• E-commerce Sales• EDI Sales• Beginning Inventories• End-of-Year Inventories• Inventories Held Outside U.S.• Purchases• Operating Expenses

7

14:09

Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS)Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS)

NAICS Sectors:• 44-45 (Retail Trade)• 72 (Accommodation and Food Services)

Sample of 25,000 Companies Mandatory survey with high response Estimates benchmarked to the Census of Retail

Trade, Accommodation, and Food Services

8

14:47

Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS)Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS)

Data Items Collected• Sales• Sales Taxes• E-commerce Sales• Beginning Inventories• End-of-Year Inventories• Inventories Held Outside U.S.• Purchases• Accounts Receivables• Operating Expenses• Merchandise Lines (NAICS 4541 only)

9

15:53

Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey (MWTS)(MWTS)

Conducted Monthly since 1946 NAICS Sector 42 (Wholesale Trade) Sample of 4,000 companies Sub-sample of AWTS Merchant Wholesalers Only Voluntary Survey

10

16:36

Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey (MWTS)(MWTS)

Data Items Collected• Sales• End-of-month Inventories

11

17:44

Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS)Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS)

Conducted Monthly since 1951 NAICS Sectors:

• 44-45 (Retail Trade)• 722 (Food Services)

Sample of 12,000 companies Sub-sample of ARTS Voluntary Survey

12

17:55

Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS)Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS)

Data Items Collected• Sales• E-commerce Sales• End-of-month Inventories

13

18:30

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTS)and Food Services (MARTS)

Conducted monthly since 1953 NAICS Sector 44-45 and Industry 722 Highly Sensitive Indicator Sample of 5,000 companies Sub-sample of MRTS Voluntary survey

14

18:42

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTS)and Food Services (MARTS)

Data Items Collected • Sales• E-commerce sales

Published on the 9th workday following the reference month

15

20:24

E-commerce StatisticsE-commerce Statistics

E-commerce includes sales, receipts, and contributions from any transaction completed over an Internet, extranet,

EDI network, electronic mail or other online system. Transactions are agreements between buyers and sellers

to transfer ownership of, or rights to use, goods or services. Payment for these goods and services may or may not be

made online.

Two Main Publications:• Annual E-Stats• Quarterly Retail E-commerce

16

20:37

Annual E-Stats PublicationAnnual E-Stats Publication

Published since 1999 Multi-sector Report

• Annual Wholesale Trade Survey (AWTS)• Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS)• Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)• Service Annual Survey (SAS)

Estimates available• E-C Shipments/Sales/Revenue vs. Total Sales• Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) vs. Total E-C• Merchandise Lines for Selected Retail Industry

Released approximately 17 months after the reference year

17

21:14

Quarterly Retail E-Commerce ReportQuarterly Retail E-Commerce Report

Published since 4th Quarter 1999 Part of the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) Retail Sector Only E-commerce Sales Released approximately 45-50 days after the

reference quarter E-C was 4.5% of Total Retail Sales in the 1st

Quarter of 2011

18

22:40

Survey ProcessingSurvey Processing

Mailout (includes FAXED questionnaires) Data Collection

• Completed questionnaires are mailed and faxed back by respondents

• Fax reminders for delinquent respondents• Telephone follow-up for delinquent respondents and edit failures• Internet reporting for MWTS, ARTS, and AWTS

19

24:28

Survey ProcessingSurvey Processing

Tabulation• Data edits identify cases that are inconsistent with previous

reporting or are growing or declining faster than similar cases• Put all responses on a calendar basis• Estimate for nonresponse based on response data

20

25:31

BenchmarkingBenchmarking

Once a year we benchmark the quarterly & monthly survey estimates to the annual survey estimates

The sampling error of the estimates is lower in the annual surveys• Annual samples are larger than the monthly samples• Annual samples are mandatory and have better response

Every 5 years we benchmark the quarterly and annual estimates to the Economic Census

21

26:49

Data DisseminationData Dissemination

Economic Indicator Releases• Monthly Wholesale Trade Report• Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services• Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales

Other Data Releases• Annual Wholesale Trade Release• Annual Retail Trade Release• Annual Benchmark Report for Wholesale Trade• Annual Benchmark Report for Retail Trade• Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Report

Electronic• Census Bureau website: www.census.gov tables in Excel, PDF, and text format• White House Briefing Room (for indicators only)• Search Database Tool

22

27:55

Demo access of data

23

31:35

Search Database ToolSearch Database Tool

Customizable downloads of economic indicator estimates

Excel or text standard formats Future expansion beyond indicators

24

33:56

Demo search tool

25

33:57

Major Data UsersMajor Data Users

Leading Economic Indicators – used by policy makers, investors, large companies, consultants, etc.

Users• Federal Reserve Board & Treasury – economic trends• Bureau of Economic Analysis- GDP• Council of Economic Advisors – economic analysis• Large Retail and Wholesale Firms – economic conditions, to forecast future

demand, and market analysis• Financial Markets – Wall Street and other markets• Consultants• Market Research Firms• Academia• Media

26

41:13

Wrap-up and OverviewWrap-up and Overview

Annual Estimates

Detailed estimates that include additional data items beyond core items

Estimates not as timely Mandatory response Large sample size

Quarterly/MonthlyEstimates

Estimates at a higher level and include core data items

Estimates available shortly after reference period

Voluntary response Small sample size

27

43:31

Thank You!Thank You!

Website address: www.census.gov• Wholesale: www.census.gov/wholesale• Retail: www.census.gov/retail

Contact Information:• U.S. Census Bureau• Timothy.C.Winters@census.gov

28

44:42