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Current Status and Prospects Current Status and Prospects of Energy Efficiency and Renewable of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy in Latin America & CaribbeanEnergy in Latin America & Caribbean
Manlio F. Manlio F. CovielloCovielloChiefChief, , EnergyEnergy & Natural & Natural ResourcesResources UnitUnit
ECLAC, ECLAC, UnitedUnited NationsNations
ENERGY EFFICIENCYENERGY EFFICIENCY
Latin America and the Latin America and the Caribbean in the Caribbean in the
global energy contextglobal energy context
Changes in productive structure, in Changes in productive structure, in sectoralsectoral composition of composition of consumption and in the share of the sources, explain the consumption and in the share of the sources, explain the nonnon––desirable pathwaydesirable pathway of the Energy Intensity in LACof the Energy Intensity in LAC……
ENERGY INTENSITY (BOE/1OOO US$ at 2000 prices)
Index 1980=100
60
70
80
90
100
110
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
60
70
80
90
100
110
OECD Total América Latina y Caribe
ALC
OECD - USA
Asia
China
The The EIEI’’ss trajectory of LAC is not far from OECDtrajectory of LAC is not far from OECD’’s, even s, even with a different concentration of primary industry with a different concentration of primary industry
(i.e. the natural resources exploitation in LAC)(i.e. the natural resources exploitation in LAC).
0
1
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Tep
/ Mile
s de
U$
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5CHINA USA OECD Asia (sin China) ALAC-OLADE CHINA
Oil Oil consumptionconsumption in in TransportTransport VS VS EconomicEconomic GrowthGrowth
1980‐2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
P ib P ercápita US $2000
C.Final (Tep
)/Hab
América L atina y C aribe E s tados Unidos UE ‐15 C hina OE C D Korea
LAC is converging towards pathways already stepped by Korea and LAC is converging towards pathways already stepped by Korea and EU EU
1980 1980 -- 20072007
GDP/capita, 2000 US$
Consumo de energía final per cápita. ALC vs. OCDE
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50
2006 2015 2020 2025 2030cons
umo
ener
gía
final
per
cáp
ita
(toe/
hab)
ALC toe/hab OCDE toe/hab
In the In the IEAIEA’’ss WEO Reference Scenario 2010WEO Reference Scenario 2010--2030, 2030, the energy consumption of ALC keeps its relative the energy consumption of ALC keeps its relative
position, if referred to OECDposition, if referred to OECD ( ( i.ei.e 4 times less4 times less……))
3.94.2
0.73 0.93
PerPer--Capita Final Energy Consumption ( toe/Capita Final Energy Consumption ( toe/habhab))
A;lk;’lksf’;l’;l’;lfd’;l’;l’;ladf’;jk;ljkkl’;ldasf
PromotingPromoting EnergyEnergy EfficiencyEfficiencyin in LatinLatin America & Caribbean:America & Caribbean:
pendingpending issuesissues andand challengeschallenges
EE IN LAC: AN OVERVIEWEE IN LAC: AN OVERVIEW
The region is The region is characterised by specific obstaclescharacterised by specific obstacles to to the implementation of EE investment, both by the implementation of EE investment, both by private businesses and the public sector. private businesses and the public sector.
Notably:Notably:
1) In many countries, the 1) In many countries, the climate of political climate of political instabilityinstability has led to a general has led to a general uncertainty of the uncertainty of the normative contextnormative context, hindering the feasibility of such , hindering the feasibility of such longlong--term investments ( as the EEterm investments ( as the EE--related..)related..)
EE IN LAC: AN OVERVIEWEE IN LAC: AN OVERVIEW
2) the fact that most countries are either energy 2) the fact that most countries are either energy exporters or control utilities market, exporters or control utilities market, removes removes in in
many casesmany cases the incentives to reduce the consumptionthe incentives to reduce the consumptionof energy through EE investment, since of energy through EE investment, since taxation on taxation on energy consumption represents a massive source energy consumption represents a massive source of revenue, at little political costof revenue, at little political cost
3) the rather 3) the rather clean energy mixclean energy mix consumed by the consumed by the economies of the region economies of the region (thanks to (thanks to biofuelsbiofuels and and hydroelectric power)hydroelectric power) makes makes environmental concerns environmental concerns less urgentless urgent
Main EE Main EE programs programs
in LACin LAC•• URE URE (Rational Energy Use) in (Rational Energy Use) in ArgentinaArgentina ((‘‘9292--’’9999))
•• PUREE PUREE (Energy Efficiency Project) in (Energy Efficiency Project) in ArgentinaArgentina since since 20062006
•• PROCELPROCEL (National Elect. Conservation (National Elect. Conservation ProgrProgr.) in .) in Brazil Brazil since since 19851985
•• CONPETCONPET (Rational Use of Oil and Gas Programme) in (Rational Use of Oil and Gas Programme) in Brazil Brazil since since 19911991
•• PPEEPPEE (Energy Efficiency Country Programme) in (Energy Efficiency Country Programme) in ChileChile since since 20052005
•• PROUREPROURE ((ProgrProgr. for the Rational Use of Energy) in . for the Rational Use of Energy) in ColombiaColombia
•• PRONACEPRONACE (Nat. Energy Conservation (Nat. Energy Conservation ProgrProgr.) in .) in Costa RicaCosta Rica since since 19941994
•• PAECPAEC (Cuba Electricity Conservation Programme) in (Cuba Electricity Conservation Programme) in Cuba Cuba since since 19971997
•• PAEPAE (Energy Saving Programme) in (Energy Saving Programme) in EcuadorEcuador
•• PESIC PESIC (EE in Commercial and Industrial Sector) in (EE in Commercial and Industrial Sector) in HondurasHonduras since since 20042004
•• CONAECONAE (National Commission for Energy Efficiency) in (National Commission for Energy Efficiency) in MexicoMexico since since 19891989
•• FIDE FIDE (Electricity Conservation Trust) in (Electricity Conservation Trust) in MexicoMexico since since 19901990
•• PAEPAE (Energy Saving Project) in (Energy Saving Project) in PeruPeru since since 19941994
•• PAEPAE (Energy Saving Project) in (Energy Saving Project) in Uruguay Uruguay since since 20042004
downloadable at:downloadable at:http://http://www.cepal.org/drniwww.cepal.org/drni//
Coordinated by
H. Altomonte & M. Coviello
March 2010
MAIN FINDINGS OF THE STUDYMAIN FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
BasedBased onon thethe resultsresults ofof thethe thethe studystudy, , 10 fundamental 10 fundamental conclusionsconclusions couldcould be be obtainedobtained at regional at regional levellevel, as , as followsfollows::
ConclusionConclusion #1)#1) SituationSituation ofof EnergyEnergy EfficiencyEfficiencyprogramsprograms, , projectsprojects andand initiativesinitiatives in LAC are in LAC are veryverydifferentdifferent dependingdepending onon thethe country country analyzedanalyzed
ConclusionConclusion #2)#2) TheThe regulatoryregulatory andand institutionalinstitutionalcontextscontexts are are veryvery differentdifferent andand cannotcannot be be addressedaddressed withwitha similar a similar approachapproach. A . A strongstrong processprocess ofof ““local local adaptationadaptation”” mustmust be done in be done in orderorder toto be be successfulsuccessful
ConclusionConclusion #3)#3) ItIt isis notnot possiblepossible oror convenientconvenient totomerelymerely copycopy foreignforeign regulationsregulations. . TheyThey mustmust be be ““taylortaylor--mademade”” forfor LAC LAC countriescountries
ConclusionConclusion #4)#4) In In severalseveral countriescountries ofof thethe RegionRegion, , lacklackofof continuitycontinuity in in EnergyEnergy EfficiencyEfficiency policypolicy regulationsregulations has has beenbeen ((andand stillstill isis……) ) criticalcritical
CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDYCONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY
ConclusionConclusion #5)#5) ThisThis discontinuitydiscontinuity generatesgenerates thethe riskrisk ofoflosinglosing experiencedexperienced technicaltechnical teamsteams.. In In factfact, , countingcounting onon trainedtrained nationalnational expertsexperts ableable toto managemanagenationalnational EnergyEnergy EfficiencyEfficiency programsprograms, , requiresrequires a long a long time time andand continuecontinue effortsefforts
ConclusionConclusion #6)#6) In In mostmost countriescountries investigatedinvestigated ((exceptexceptMexicoMexico) ) do do notnot existexist local local financialfinancial sourcessources focusedfocusedtoto specificallyspecifically supportsupport EnergyEnergy EfficiencyEfficiency programsprograms
CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDYCONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY
ConclusionConclusion # 7)# 7) a a relevantrelevant difficultydifficulty in in monitoringmonitoringthethe resultsresults ofof energyenergy efficiencyefficiency programsprograms, , isisevidentevident. .
TheThe introductionintroduction ofof Performance Performance IndicatorsIndicators forformonitoringmonitoring EnergyEnergy EfficiencyEfficiency ProgramProgram, , turnsturns out out totobe a be a keykey--issuesissues in in everyevery regionregion’’ss country country
TheThe mostmost recentrecent ECLACECLAC’’ss FlagshipFlagship studystudy onon EE EE isisattackingattacking thisthis specificspecific issueissue
CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDYCONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY
ConclusionConclusion #8 )#8 ) TheThe mere mere existenceexistence ofofcompulsorycompulsory energyenergy efficiencyefficiency lawslaws oror regulationsregulationsdoesdoes notnot guaranteeguarantee at at allall thethe successsuccess ofof a a nationalnationalEnergyEnergy EfficiencyEfficiency ProgramProgram
AnAn interestinginteresting exampleexample toto thisthis regardsregards isis thethe PUREE PUREE programprogram in Argentinain Argentina. . UnderUnder itsits compulsorycompulsory frameworkframework, , itit givesgives $ $ awardsawards toto usersusers thatthat show show –– at at leastleast –– a a 10%10% in in energyenergy savingsaving withwith respectrespect toto 2004 2004 levelslevels..
And establishes And establishes $ fines$ fines to users that donto users that don’’t reach the t reach the target.target.
The results of all this have bThe results of all this have beeneen…….. ..
CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDYCONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY
PUREE/Argentina – Amount of awarded and fined usersJune 2005 – December 2008
AWARDED F I N E DF I N E D
Users preferred to pay finespreferred to pay fines instead of saving energy !! This, is strictly related to the very low price of energyvery low price of energy in Argentina
ConclusionConclusion #9 )#9 ) NationalNational EnergyEnergy EfficiencyEfficiencyprogramsprograms stillstill dependdepend excessivelyexcessively onon internationalinternationalsupportsupport, , althoughalthough volatilityvolatility ofof energyenergy pricesprices are are startingstarting toto triggertrigger somesome local local investinginvesting initiativesinitiatives
ConclusionConclusion #10 )#10 ) BarriersBarriers referredreferred toto lacklack ofofinformationinformation forfor energyenergy consumersconsumers,, aimingaiming at at beingbeing be more be more efficientefficient in in usingusing energyenergy, are , are stillstillhighhigh
CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDYCONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY
•• To correct To correct price distortionsprice distortions that that ““fightfight”” against the against the sustainable management of energy demand sustainable management of energy demand
•• To actively promote and To actively promote and finance national EE programsfinance national EE programs
•• To put in place transport, urban infrastructure and To put in place transport, urban infrastructure and territorial territorial policies to reduce fuel consumption & pollutionpolicies to reduce fuel consumption & pollution
•• The EE and Renewable sources policies must be part of an The EE and Renewable sources policies must be part of an integrate energy policyintegrate energy policy, conceived from the perspective of , conceived from the perspective of the sustainable developmentthe sustainable development
The The ECLACECLAC’’ss proposals for more effective proposals for more effective EE Public PoliciesEE Public Policies
All the above, calls for the All the above, calls for the proactive participationproactive participation of different of different actors, mainly the actors, mainly the energy companiesenergy companies
Nevertheless the Nevertheless the leadership of the Governmentleadership of the Government –– in its role in its role of planner, promoter and regulator of planner, promoter and regulator –– is fundamentalis fundamental
Though the State must lead the process, EE policy Though the State must lead the process, EE policy constitutes constitutes a national responsibilitya national responsibility in this respectin this respect
From there, the From there, the need to generate a political need to generate a political ““dialogue"dialogue"inside inside andand between regionbetween region’’s countries, aiming at exchanging s countries, aiming at exchanging experiences and jointly advance towards a sustainable path experiences and jointly advance towards a sustainable path
The The ECLACECLAC’’ss proposal for more effective proposal for more effective EE Public PoliciesEE Public Policies
The new The new ECLACECLAC’’ss challenge:challenge:
the EE Policy Dialoguethe EE Policy Dialogue
With the support of the German Cooperation (BMZ/GTZ) ECLAC is With the support of the German Cooperation (BMZ/GTZ) ECLAC is launching a new initiative aiming to launching a new initiative aiming to stimulate & coordinate a stimulate & coordinate a deeper discussion about the need for more sustainable and deeper discussion about the need for more sustainable and sustained energy efficiency policiessustained energy efficiency policies in Latin America & Caribbeanin Latin America & Caribbean
ProjectProject’’s overall objective: to contribute to strengthen the horizontal s overall objective: to contribute to strengthen the horizontal & international cooperation in EE in LAC, establishing:& international cooperation in EE in LAC, establishing:
1.1. An An Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Policy DialoguePolicy Dialogue(1(1stst EEPD: November 18 & 19EEPD: November 18 & 19tt, Santiago, Chile); and , Santiago, Chile); and
2.2. an "adan "ad--hoc" hoc" Regional FundRegional Fund for Energy Efficiency (Energy for Energy Efficiency (Energy Efficiency Fund) Efficiency Fund)
OBJECTIVES OF OBJECTIVES OF ““UNECEUNECE--GEE21GEE21”” FULLY FULLY MATCH WITH ECLACMATCH WITH ECLAC’’S WORKPLAN !!S WORKPLAN !!
Given the overall situation and the bottlenecks Given the overall situation and the bottlenecks presented above, ECLAC is strongly interested in a presented above, ECLAC is strongly interested in a more systematic exchange of experience on capacity more systematic exchange of experience on capacity building, policy reforms and investments project building, policy reforms and investments project financefinance with countries of other regionswith countries of other regions
The experience accrued by with The experience accrued by with UNUN--ECEECE the the EE 21EE 21project and the expected accomplishments of project and the expected accomplishments of GEE21GEE21programme, are programme, are unsurpassed opportunitiesunsurpassed opportunities in this in this sense, that sense, that ECLAC is seriously intended to supportECLAC is seriously intended to supportand take advantage ofand take advantage of
RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY
In 2009, In 2009, worldworld investementsinvestements in in renewablesrenewables havehavesimplysimply collapsedcollapsed, , duedue toto thethe financialfinancial crisiscrisis……
……andand RenewableRenewable EnergiesEnergiesdo do notnot ““taketake--off off ““ in in thetheLatinLatin americaamerica eithereither……
AMERICA LATINA & CARIBE - 2002 - OFERTA ENERGÍA
Petroleo40.1% Leña Residencial
4.7%
Leña Agropecuario
0.3%
Leña NO Sostenible.
2.7%Geotermia
0.7%
Otras NO Renovables
0.6%
Hidroenergía14.7%
Otras Renovables0.5%
Productos Caña4.1%
Carbon2.6%
Gas natural28.3%
Leña Industria0.2%
Carbón Veget.0.6%Renovables
25.7%
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN –– TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY -- 20022002
AMERICA LATINA & CARIBE - 2005 - OFERTA DE ENERGÍA
Carbon5.2%
Nuclear1.1%
Geotermia0.4%
Otras No Renovables
0.1%
Hidroenergía11.7%
Productos Caña5.8%
Otras Renovables1.2%
Carb Veget Sosten1.4%
Leña Sosten/Industria0.7%
Leña Sosten/Residen4.0% Leña Sosten/Agropec
0.3%
Centrales Eléct. Renov.0.1%
Leña no Sostenible.
1.7%
RENOVABLES25.7%
Petroleo39.2%
Gas natural27.1%
==
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN –– TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY -- 20052005
AMERICA LATINA Y CARIBE - OFERTA TOTAL DE ENERGÍA - 2008
Carbon4.6%
Nuclear0.8%
Leña no Sostenible.
1.7%Otras No
Renovables0.4%
Gas natural25.6%
RENOVABLES24.7%
Otras Renovables1.5%
Petroleo42.1%
Hidroenergía9.2%
Leña Sost/Residen4.0%
Productos Caña7.0%
Centrales Eléct. Renov.0.1%
Leña Sosten/Agropec0.3%
Geotermia0.5%
Carb Veget Sosten1.4%
Leña Sosten/Industria0.7%
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN –– TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY -- 20082008
(Oferta Renovables/Oferta Total de Energía)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
CARIBEORIENTAL
GRANDESANTILLAS
AMERICACENTRAL
COMUNIDADANDINA
MERCOSUR MEXICO BRASIL
IRO - INDICE DE RENOVABILIDAD DE LA OFERTA DE ENERGÍA
2002
2005
2008
RENEWABILITY INDEX (RENEWABILITY INDEX (RenewablesRenewables Supply / Total Energy Supply)Supply / Total Energy Supply)
BRASIL - 2002 - OFERTA ENERGÍA
Leña Residencial3.2%
Carbón Vegetal2.7%
Renovables37.6%
Otras NORenovables
2.8%
Leña NOSostenible.
2.9%
Carbon7.0%
Gas natural6.0%
Leña Agropecuario
0.6%
Productos Caña12.5%
Hidroenergía14.8%
Leña Industria1.5%
Nuclear1.1%
Otras Renovables2.2%
Petroleo42.6%
BRAZIL BRAZIL –– TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY -- 20022002
BRASIL - OFERTA TOTAL DE ENERGÍA - 2008
Centrales Eléct. Renov.0.1%
Leña Sosten/Industria
1.5%
Hidroenergía12.6%
Productos Caña17.9%
Otras Renovables3.4%
Petroleo34.9%
Otras No Renovables
2.8%
Leña no Sostenible.
3.1%
Nuclear1.4%
Carbón5.8%
Gas natural9.6%
Carb Veget Sosten3.4%
Leña Sosten/Agropec
0.7%
Leña Sosten/Residen
2.8%RENOVABLES42.4%
EFECTO PROINFAEFECTO PROINFA
BRAZIL BRAZIL –– TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY -- 20082008
Available at: Available at: www.cepal.org/drniwww.cepal.org/drni//
SomeSome stepssteps towardstowards a more a more ““stimulatingstimulating”” regulationregulation
havehave beenbeen takentaken, , thoughthough……
LAW YEAR MECHANISMS / INCENTIVES
ARGENTINA Law N. 26190 2006 A Fiduciary's Fund is created; managed and allocated by the Electric Energy Federal Council. Pays up to 1,5 cents US$/kWh wind, solar, biomass and geothermal power.
BRASIL Law N. 10438/02 (PROINFA)
2002 Direct incentives to the national grid connection of biomass thermal electricity plants, wind power plants and small hydroelectric plants.
CHILE Law N. 20.257: 2008It has been set, for electric operators, a minimum level of electric generation through renewable energies (
5%) - "Renewable Portfolio Standard System".
COLOMBIA Law N. 697 – 2001 2001 PROURE program is created to promote the Rational Use of Energy and the non-conventional energy sources.
ECUADOR Regulación N. 004/04 2005Regulates the operation of the renewable energy generation units installed in the country, as the parameters
to set the tariffs ("feed-in tariff" system).
GUATEMALA Decree N. 52-2003. 2003 Economical and fiscal incentives
EL SALVADOR Law "LIFFER" 2007 A Revolving Fund to Promote the Renewable Energies (Fomento de las Energías Renovables - FOFER) will grant soft credits, securities and assistance to financing feasibility studies.
MEXICO Law "LAFRE" (in process) Creates a 55 MM US$ annual Trust that will allow the renewable energies to cover the 12% of national generation in 2012.
NICARAGUA Law N. 532 2005It establishes a 10 years period with tax benefits to the investor company. It guarantees a
payback for renewable sources of energy between 5.5 y 6.5 cents US$/kWh.
PERU Law Decree N. 1002 2008 It fix a "Bonus" for renewable energies on electric tariffs, in order to guarantee a minimum profitability (12%) to renewable generators.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Law N. 57-07 2007It guarantees a 100% exemption from tax on machineries imported by companies ; moreover the
companies are exonerated from the the Income Tax during 10 years.
URUGUAY Decree N. 77/006 2006 It authorizes UTE ( Govt'l Electric Utility) to subscribe special purchase agreements on energy with national suppliers that produce energy through renewable sources.
WhichWhich barriersbarriers stillstill preventpreventthethe ““taketake--off off ““ ofof thetherenewablesrenewables in in LatinLatin
America?America?
FINANCIAL BARRIERS FINANCIAL BARRIERS
•• LimitedLimited availabilityavailability ofof thethe promotionpromotioncreditscredits/loan/loan
•• HighHigh transactiontransaction costscosts
•• LackLack ofof financialfinancial internationalinternationalcooperationcooperation mechanismsmechanisms
TECHNICAL BARRIERSTECHNICAL BARRIERS
•• InsufficientInsufficient technicaltechnical--economicaleconomicalinformationinformation aboutabout nationalnational resourcesresources
•• LimitedLimited technicaltechnical capacitycapacity toto designdesign andanddevelopdevelop projectsprojects
•• LimitedLimited developmentdevelopment ofof supplysupply andand serviceservice
systemsystem chainschains in in ““offoff--gridgrid”” zoneszones
REGULATORY BARRIERSREGULATORY BARRIERS
•• ShorterShorter periodsperiods ofof contractscontracts forforpurchasimgpurchasimg energyenergy ((maxmax 36 36 monthsmonths))
•• LimitsLimits toto thethe installedinstalled capacitycapacity ofofrenewablerenewable projectsprojects
SOCIAL BARRIERSSOCIAL BARRIERS
•• Social Social rejectionrejection ofof hydrohydro projectsprojectswithwith reservoirreservoir
•• ReducedReduced paymentpayment capacitycapacity ofof lowlow--incomeincome sectorssectors (rural (rural areasareas, remote, , remote, poorpoor citycityareasareas))
POLITICAL / ECONOIMICAL BARRIERS POLITICAL / ECONOIMICAL BARRIERS
•• WeakWeak insertioninsertion ofof renewablesrenewables in in thethe energyenergypoliciespolicies andand in in thethe nationalnational regulatoryregulatoryframeworksframeworks
•• RegardlessRegardless thethe hugehuge volatilityvolatility ofof hydrocarbonhydrocarbonpriceprice, , thethe renewablesrenewables continuecontinue havinghaving economiceconomiccompetitivenesscompetitiveness problemsproblems VSVS conventionalconventionalenergiesenergies ((seesee nextnext graphgraph))
TheThe renewablerenewable energiesenergies’’ insertioninsertion requiresrequires solidsolid((i.ei.e $$$$$$$$ …….).) promotionpromotion mechanismsmechanisms !!! !!!
• Medium-Big Hydro • Natural Gas • Oil & Coal
Source: IEA, January 2007 Source, IEA, January 2008Source, IEA, January 2008
•• MainMain problemproblem ofof renewablerenewable energiesenergies isis thethe difficultydifficultycalculatingcalculating in a in a integratedintegrated wayway thethe efectiveefective economiceconomiccompetitivenesscompetitiveness in in comparisoncomparison withwith conventionalsconventionals..
•• ConceptConcept ofof LevelizedLevelized CostCost ofof EnergyEnergy ((LCoELCoE oror LCE) : LCE) : enablesenables toto compare compare –– in a in a comprehensivecomprehensive mannermanner –– costscosts
ofof differentdifferent technologiestechnologies, , throughoutthroughout theirtheir lifetimelifetime
•• RepresentsRepresents costcost ofof energyenergy ofof a a projectproject forfor whichwhich NPV = 0NPV = 0
•• In In otherother wordswords: : LCoELCoE = = minumumminumum priceprice at at whichwhich thetheenergyenergy has has toto be be soldsold in in orderorder toto reachreach thethe ““breakbreak--eveneven””
LEVELIZED COSTS OF ENERGYLEVELIZED COSTS OF ENERGY____________________________________________________________
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
GRAN HYDRO = 5.38
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
L a r g e H Y D R OL a r g e H Y D R O
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
GEOTERMIA = 5.97
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
G E O T H E R M A LG E O T H E R M A L
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
MiniHYDRO = 6.79
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
M i n i H Y D R OM i n i H Y D R O
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
BIOMASA = 7.02
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
B I O M A S S B I O M A S S (gasification)(gasification)
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
CARBON (eficiencia planta: 34%)= 7.38
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
C O A L C O A L (price: 50 US$/ton(price: 50 US$/ton))
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
EOLICA = 8.89
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
W I N DW I N D
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
C.C a GAS = 9.60
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
C O M B I N E D C Y C L E C O M B I N E D C Y C L E (price of natural gas: 12 US$/(price of natural gas: 12 US$/mmBTUmmBTU))
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
NUCLEAR = 9.65
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
N U C L E A RN U C L E A R
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
C S P = 15.95
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER (CSP)CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER (CSP)
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50 100 150Precio Petroleo (US$/barril)
LCO
E (c
ents
/kW
h
PETROLEO
DIESEL = 24.20
Fuente de datos: ESMAP 2007 y L. Monari, World Bank
GENERACIGENERACIÓÓN N a FUEL OILa FUEL OIL
L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y L e v e l i z e d C o s t o f E n e r g y ((LCoELCoE) :) :
D I E S E L D I E S E L (price: 3.50 US$/gallon)(price: 3.50 US$/gallon)
Price of Oil (US$/barrel)
INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERSINSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS
•• LimitedLimited institutionalityinstitutionality ofof thethe
renewablerenewable energiesenergies
•• TendencyTendency toto prioritizeprioritize red red expansionexpansion
insteadinstead ofof renewablerenewable projectsprojects ““in situin situ””
•• Global Global benefitsbenefits notnot recognizedrecognized by by thethe
energyenergy authoritiesauthorities ((seesee nextnext graphicgraphic))
EXTERNALITIES AND GENERATION COSTEXTERNALITIES AND GENERATION COST
SOURCEGENERATION COST
(US$ cents/kWh)EXTERNALITIES *
(US$ cents/kWh)
COAL 4 - 5.5 9.2
NATURAL GAS 3 - 4 0.8
LARGE HYDRO 1.8 - 3 0.01
FUEL OIL 3.9 - 5.3 9
NUCLEAR 2.4 - 7.2 0.4
GEOTHERMAL 4.5 - 8.5 0.6
MINI - HYDRO 5 - 10 0.01
BIOMASS 4 - 9 0.5
WIND 3 - 8 0.1
PHOTOVOLTAIC 30 - 80 0.7
Range min - max , world average
“Uniform World Model”for Spain – calculated by UAH
*** Damages produced by polluting emissions coming from an energy source. Calculated througout the whole “lifelife ciclecicle” of each kilowatt/hour
....andand ifif thethe World World imposesimposes a a COCO22 TaxTax toto fossilfossil fuelsfuels……. .
Impacto de la Tasa de CO2 sobre el LCoE
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
0 50 100 150Tasa sobre CO2 (US$ / ton CO2)
LCO
E Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
IGCC withCCS
Data source: ESMAP 2007 & L. Monari, World Bank* Integrated Gasification Combine Cycle
with Carbon Capture & Storage
*
Impact of CO2 Tax on Impact of CO2 Tax on LCoELCoE
Today, not only Today, not only technical, ethical and technical, ethical and
environmental, but also environmental, but also economical elementseconomical elementsexist that could open exist that could open the way to a massive the way to a massive
implementation of implementation of selectedselected renewable renewable
energies.energies.
So, letSo, let’’s go on s go on promoting our promoting our
““Green DreamsGreen Dreams”” !!
ThankThank youyou
[email protected]@cepal.org