Report No. 487a-NIR

Current Econonmic Position and FEL Cop Development Prospects ofNiger(In Three Volumes)

Volume IIl: The Agricultural Sector(Annexes)

August 20, 1974Western Africa Regional Office

Not for Public Use

Document of the International Bank for, Reconstruction and DevelopmentInternational Development Association

This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may notbe published, quoted or cited without Bank Groulp authorization. The Bank Group doesnot accept responsibility for the accuracy or comrjleteness of the report.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Before 1969: US$1.00 = C.^'AF 2471969-1971: US$1.00 = CFAF 278

1972: US$1.00 = CFAF 2521973: US$1.00 = CFAF 222

1974 and after: US$1.00 = CFAF 250

WEIGHTS AND EASURES(Metric System)

1 hectare (ha) = 2.469 acres1 kilometer (km) = 0.6215 miles1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2047 pounds

1 ton (t) = 1.1023 short tons= 0.9842 long tons

1 liter (1) = 1.057 US quarts

FISCAL YEAR

October 1 - September 30

NIGER

CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITIONAND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS

LIST OF ANNEXES

I. The Drought

II. Current Situation of Agricultural Research

III. OFEDES and the Problem of Water Resources

IV. Exports of Fresh Vegetables: SONIPRIM

V. Badeguicheri Project

VI. Rural Development Project for the Zinder Region

VII. Maradi Integrated Rural Development Project

VIII. Rural Development Project for the Department of Dosso

IX. Feedlot Fattening Using Irrigated Fodder Crops: The TiaguirireProject

X. Irrigation Development in the River Niger Depressions

XI. List of Projects Plaking up the Emergency Program (1 973)

XII. List of Pre-Investment Studies

XIII. Marketing Institutions

XIV. Projections: Production, Exports, Investment

This report is based on the findings of an economic mission thatvisited Niger in October-November 1973. The mission included Messrs. L. deAzearate (chief), P. Streng (economist), and R. Sordoillet (agronomist,consultant). This volume was prepared by Messrs. Sordoillet and de Azearate.

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

BDRN Banque de D6veloppement de la R6publique du Niger

CCCE Caisse Centrale de Coop6ration Economique (France)CFDT Compagnie Fr;anqaise pour le D6veloppement des Fibres TextilesCNCA Caisse Nationale de Credit AgricoleCSPPN Caisse de Stabilisation des Prix des Produits du Niger

FAC Fonds d'Aide et de Coop6ration (France)FED Fonds Europeen de D6veloppementFNI Fonds National d'Investissement

IRAT Institut de Rlecherches.Agronomiques Tropicales

NER 1inistere de l'Economie Rurale

NITEX Societe Nige:rienne des Textiles

OCDN Organisation Commune Dahomey-Niger des Chemins de Feret des Transports

OFEDES Office des EDux dii Sous-SolCLANI Office du Lait du NigerOPVN Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger

SEPANI Societe d'E)cloitation des Produits d'Arachide du NigerSHN Societ6 des Tuileries du NigerSCONIGER Societe Industriel)e et Co5merciale du NigerSNC Soci6t6 Nationale de CimenterieSONARA Societ6 Nig6:rienne de Commercialisation de l'ArachideSONERAN Societ6 Nige:rienne d'Exploitation des Ressources AniimalesSONICERAY Soci6tg Nig6erienne de C6ramiquesSONIFAMIE Societ6 Nigercienne de Fabrication de Neubles NetalliquesSONIPRINi Soci6t6 Nige:rienne des PrineursSOTRAMIIL Soci 6tA de T:ransformation du Yil et du Sorgho

UNCC Union Nig6rienne de Cr6edit et de Cooperation

Page 1 of 3 pages

ODUNTRY DATA - NIGER

ARA POPULATION DENSITY

1,2167,000 ka2 4.25 ifUon (rid-19172)*32 /a Per km2of arable land

SOCIAL INDICATORS

Reference Countries

RiEr lyV7 1970 I0F

GNP PER CAPITA US$ (ATLAS hASIS) a 130 90 b 100 /b 120 /b 260 /b

DEMOGRAPHICCrude birth rate (per thousand) 52 /e 52 'A 49 /d,e 49 44Crude death rate (per thmwand) 27 o 23 24 1,: 18 22Infant mortality rate (per thouaand live births) 200. .. 94 156 IfLife expectancy at birth (years) 37c 4,2 39 48 b2

Gross reproduction rate /2 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.0

Population growth rate 3.0 2.9 / 26 /g 2 2.31IPopulation growth rate - urban 6Ah 77E 7r 1,5 4

Age structure (percent)lo-lb 44 45 44Sab /D 45 4215-64 531 527i 52 7. 52 5465 and over 37T 37; 4 7ii 3 4

Dependency ratio A 1.6 7;i 1.0 7an 1.1 7E 1.0 /n 1.1 /n

Urban population as percent of totaL 6A 8 A 6 It 12 129 IAFanily planning. No. of acceptors oamolative (thous.) .. ,.

No. of users (% o married wnaen)

ZeNPYKNNTTotal labor force (thousands) 770 1,900 /a 2,000 / ?,4OC /e 1,600 /e,q

Percentage employed in agriculturn. - 91 7 88 7p 80 7i 73Percentage unemployed 7

INCOME DISTRIBUTIONPercent o- national income roceived by highest 5% 23 ..

Percent of national income received by highest 20% 42 ..Percont of national income received by lowest 20% 6 .Percent of national incomc received by lowest 40% 18 ..

DISTRIBUTION O LAND ONRSH}P% owned by top 109 of owners .. ..

S owned by smallest 10% of owners

HEALTH aND NUTRITIONFopulation per physician 71,000 Ir 58,260 75,250 /I 15,94G, 31,940Population per nursing person 7,5oo 7;r 7 040 16,090 7i 1,950 2,1,10Population per hospital bed 1,880 Zt 2,230 640 1,04,0 /u 730 /u

i'r capita calorie supply as % of requireaento / .. 90 /I 98 85 /r 96 /vPer capita protein eupply, total (gross per day) .. 78 7; o 59 7; 64 7i

Of which, animal and pule .. 24 77 9 24 7; 28 7i;Death rate 1-4 yearn .. ..

SWCATIONAdJusted 8 prilmary school enrollanL ratio 6 14 37 25 /a 44 IfAdjust.d cecoradary school enrollunt ratio 0.3 hv 1 3 9 7 7 72Tears of achooling provided, first aid second level 13 13 14 12 13Vocational enrollment as % of sec. s:hool enrolleent 4 2 6/s 3 1 /a 12 /aAdult literacy rate % *- *- *- 19 7; 10 7;

hOUSINAverage No. of persons per room (uwbin) .. .. 1.9 /aa 2.5 /e,vPercent of occupied units without piped water 78 7o ab 36 aAccess to electricity (as % of total population) 16 S_ 3 26Percent of tural population connected to electricity .. .. 0.0

NStPTIONRadio receivers par 1000 population 1 36 20 12 If 69Passenger cars per 1000 population 0.6 t 1 2 2 11Electric power consumption (kwh p.c.; 3 9 32 25 81Newsprint censumption p.c. kg per year 0.03 O .0. .014 0.2 0.08

Notes. Figures refer either to the latel,t perioda or to a*oount of noviroorental tmperature, body weights, andthe latest yearn. Lateet periods refer :n principle to diatribution by age and * x of national popalations.the years 1956-60 or 1966-70 the latest years in prin- / Protein standards (requirenents) for all countries am estab-ciple to 1960 and 1970. - liehed by aSDA Econceio Research Service provide for a minimuma The Per Capita GNP estimate it at maruet prices for allowance of 60 grams of total protein per day, and 20 pams of

ye.ro other than 1960,calculated by Ihe asse conversion animal and pulse protein, of which 10 gron should be animaltechnique as the 1972 World Bank Atl,,s. protein. Theme atandarda are somewhat lower than those of 75

2. Average numaber of daughters per womaxu of reproductive vrams of total protein and 23 grams of animal protein am anage. average for the world, proposed by lAO in the Tbird World Poond

L2 Population growth rates are for the Cecades ending in Survey.1960 and 1970. a Somne studies have auggested that crude death rates of children

&L Ratio of under 15 and 65 and over age brackets to ages 1 through 4 aay be used as a first approximation index ofthose in labor force bracket of ages 15 through 64. malnutrition.

& FAO reference standarda represent physiological re- Li Percentage enrolled of oorreaponding population of school agequirements for normal activity and health, taking am defined for each nountry.

* Resent 2ek ision estint. for mid-1972 is 4.2 1-.

/a 1969; A 1972; /c 1959-60; /d 1965-70, U estimte; /s Estimatel /f 19681 /g 1960-72; A Definitionnot evaiSb4e; It -Ai tomabips and to planning areas and i district cenere; LI 7E;ty-eight tewn's

A Cap-not region and the cities of Saint-Louis, Thies, aolack, Dicurbel and Ziguinchor- /1 Eatimate for dejurepopulation, bae d on reslts of smple surve y k! 1966; /j Ratio of population ander and 65 and over to totallabor forcel Lo Estimate based on the resulta of a sample srveY and excludee labor force of iazq city, nomadpopulation and reignera; & 110 estimt; l q 1970-71n r 1962; LB Cavrage of data incoaplete; A 1963;

^ a Government hospital eatablishmenter; /a lPdjp.66f hgNot inolvding privat vocational schoole; /x 1965;Public oducation only; /s Not inaludfng teacher tr iling; / 1967; /ab Urban only; /ac 1964.

Senegal has been selected as an objective country since its ONP in about three times that of Niger; both countriename in the same geographical rea, have similar production patterqs (with the same dominant crop -- groundnuts),share the same monetary aytem and have about the same population.

R2 Novotber 5, 1974

A.N, imic

Page 2 of 3 pages

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1969 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant prices)

FCFA Bln % 196 -6 196 - 19GNP at Market Prices 103.0 100.0Gross Domestic Investment 6.3 6.1Gross National Saving 4.9 4.8Current Account Balance - 1.4 - 1.4Exports of Goods, NFS 10.6 10.3Imports of Goods, NFS 17.2 16.7

OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1971

Value Added Labor Force V.A. per WorkerFCFA Bln % Mln 7 FCFA

Agriculture, Livestock, Fishing 51.95 47.6Manufacturing 11.92 10.9Construction 3.07 2.8Services 40.15 36.8

Public Administration ( 8.24) ( 7.6)Other 2.03 1.9

Total/Average 109.12 100.0

GOVERNMENT FINANCE Central GovernmentFCFA Bln % of GDP1971/72 1971/72

Current Receipts 12.13Current Expenditure 11.24Current Surplus 0.89Capital Expenditures 2.45External Assistance 1.33

MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES (IFS) j1965 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

(Million FCFA outstanding end period)Money and Quasi-Money 6,722 9,212 9,596 12,135 12,896 15,504 20,315Bank Credit to Public Sector (net) -1,046 - 396 -1,652 -2,324 -3,458 _3,402 -7,152Bank Credit to Private Sector 8,644 10,064 10,047 9,738 10,677 12,464 20,973Money and Quasi-Money as % of GDP .. 9.4 9.4 11.1General Price Index (1964 - 100) 2/ 104.0 125.0 125.9 131.2 144.0 160o9 166.3

Annual percentage changes in:General Price Index --- 4.7 --- 0.7 4.2 9.8 11.7 3.4Bank Credit to Public Sector . . .

Bank Credit to Private Sector --- 3.9 --- -0.2 -3.1 9.6 16.7 63.3

1/ Data are not strictly comparable with those shown in the Statistical Appendix.2/ Consumer price index, Niamey.

Page 3 of 3 pages

TRADE PAYMENTS AND CAPITAL FLOWS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1970-72)

1970 1971 1972 FCFA Mln 1 n(MillW FCFA)

Exports of Goods, NFS 16,802 18,1i1 20,640 Groundnut Products 5,504 49.8Imports of Goods, NFS 25,873 24 268 26 272 Live Animals 1,958 17.7Resource of Gap -9,071 :-,127 - Uranium Concentrates 1,449 13.1

Factor Payments (net) - 208 - 218 - 218 Cotton 305 2.8Private Transfers (net) i48 - 50 Hides and Skins 245 2.2

Current Balance -9,231 :7,345 -5,800 Onions 233 2.1

Direct Investment and Beans 149 1.3

Other Private Long-Term Other 1.216 l.DCapital (net) 5,193 2,960 1,120 Total Recorded Exports 11,059 100.0 85.9Inflow (5,704) (3.171) (1,330) Unrecorded Exports (est.) 1 822 14.1Outflow (- 511) (- 211) (- 210) Total Merchandise Exports 12,881 100.0

Official Transfers (net) 7,725 7,430 8,700Government Capital (net) 691 - 84 437 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1973

Inflow (1,050) ( 726) (1,304) US$ Mln

Outflow (- 359) (- 810) (- 867) Public Debt, incl. Guaranteed 116.7

Other Items (net) -1 815 377 -2,187Change in Reserves 23 w3 2,270 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1972

Gross Reserves (end year) 5,561 9,791 12,113Central Bank (5,200) (8,592) (10,558) Public Debt, incl. Guaranteed 2.9 /

Net Reserves (end year)3/ 3,275 7,613 9,883Central Bank (5,081) (8,580) (10,553) IDA LENDING, DECEMBER 31 , 1974

US$ MlnPetroleum Products

Imports - FCFA million 603 1,183 1,392 Undisbursed s7.e

- us$ million 2.2 4.3 5.4 Outstanding, incl. Undisbursed 237.8- 1,000 tons 51.0 56.9 60.3

Exports - - -

RATE OF EXCHANGE

Through November 1971 US$1.00 - FCFk 277.71December 1971 through

January 1973 US$1.00 - FCFA 255.79Since February 1973 US$1.00 - FCFA 230.10

FF 1.00 - FCFA 50.0

T Including US$15.3 million undisbursed./ Ratio of external debt service (US$2.3 million) to exports of goods and non-factor services as shown in the

balance of payments.3/ Including medium- and long-term foreign liabilities of development banks.

Original principal amount (US$22.10 million) plus adjustment to reflect the devaluation of the United Statesdollar (US$1.71 million).

not available

not applicable

December 1974

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A11'N1EX IPage i

Th. DROUGHT

1. Over the 6 years extending from 1968 to 197'1 drylands of tropi-cal Africa have been exposed to _Lve years of intensive 4rought, in the courseof w.,ich the annual rainfall def--it has been amongst . - most acute ever ex-per.' -iced by the region dutring - period covered by e:i3ting records. In1973 is appears to have suffered worst of all.

2. The repercussions have been many and varied. In order, however, tofully appreciate these consequences and consider effective remedies, one mustfirst attempt to define the true nature of what has ha9pened. Is this regionfaced i-ith a progressive drying up of the climate and a consequential rever-sion to the desert? Is this a cyclical movement?

(a) The same questions were being asked as far back as 1935. That year,an Anglo-French mission composed of administrators and forestry per-sonnel had surveyed the Niger-Nigerian frontier region between Niameyand Lake Chad, reaching the conclusion that nothing in the naturalphenomena occurring at that time warranted the assumption of a pro-gressive reversion to desert conditions;

(b) Even if the desert made inroads into the region in the geologicalperiod extending from 2,500 BC to 500 BC, the available meteorologi-cal data provide no basis for assuming a similar climatic pattern inthe present era. Annual fluctuations at Niger weather stations (cf.annexed curves for three stations with a longitudinal spread) aresuch that it would be misleading to draw any firm conclusions fromthe 50 years of observations they represent;

(c) In the recorded past (1913-16, 1942-44, 1955-56) there have beenother droughts as severe as --and even more severe than- thosethat have occurred recently, though, it seems, extending over short-er periods of time. Moreover, in order to tmderstand the true scaleof the drought, one should consider not only rainfall levels butalso the duration of the rainy season and the distribution of rain-fall. Whiatever the explanation may be and even if the occurrenceof certain periods that are drier than others can be related tosolar activity, we cannot describe them as cyclical phenomena;

(d) The reasons for the apparent reversion to desert must therefore besought elsewhere.

It is clear that the immediate cause is a twofold process of erosion:

- by water, whose long-run effects, in terms of Niger floods andlower groundwater tables, have become more marked;

- by the wind, which strips off the loose soil, whips up the sandand destroys the seeds sown by the plant cover.

ANNEX IPage 2

This twofold process of erosion is, furthermore, promoted by deforestation,uncontrolled use of land by herdsmen (overgrazing, cutting of branches,bush fires) or by farmers (cultivation of pedologically and climaticallymarginal land without special safeguards).

Reversion to desert would therefore appear to be made possible bythe action of man himself, even without a change in climate.

One is indeed entitled to ask whether the rapid increase in thenumber of men and livestock, accelerated by the benefits of medical andveterinary science, has not upset the balance created between man and thesoil, before the extremely limited achievements of agricultural technologyhave been able to do anything to offsat the process.

3. The effects on agriculture have been many and varied:

(a) The most immediate result has been the food shortage. The 1973relief effort was organized to meet the shortfall in the 1972rainy-season crop. It mobilized close to 120,000 tons of food(cereals, flours and powdered milk) to support over 500,000 peoplefor a more or less protracted period. The year was both the occa-sion for a show of international solidarity and for the organiza-tion of the shipment and distribution of food within the countryunder the aegis of OPVN. It was a year that focused attentionon transportation difficulties, both those involved in linkingthe coastal ports to Niger's major centers and then in redistri-buting food through secondary centers and finally from these tomore remote points. Deficiencies both in transportation facilitiesand in secondary roads were very evident. The use of aircraft(drops with or without parachute) on an emergency basis proved tobe ruinously expensive. 1/ The total cost of emergency aid in1972-73 amounted to CFAF 10.5 billion.

The 1973/74 season may well be marked by even more severe shortagesbutt these should be handled less haphazardly.

Given the present status of both agricultural and demographic statis-tics, it is difficult to evaluate the extent of the food shortageresulting from a deficit 1973/74 campaign. The following estimatefor the entire country has been made by Niger's Agriculture Direc-torate:

1/ It was estimated that it cost CFAF 50/kg just to airlift sorghum fromLagos to Agadez or about twice the c.i.f. price Lagos.

ANN!EX I

Page 3

Gross food requirements

250 kg per capita 192 kg per capitaper annum per annum

Population 1973/74 4,468,000

Total gross foodrequirements 1,117,000 tons 857,856 tons

1973/74 production(millet plus

sorghum) 795,000 tons

Available foodsupplies (net) (80%) 636,328 " 636,328 "

Shortfall 480,672 " 221,528 "

Other estimates, based on a more refined evaluation of unit needs(SEDES norms for consumption in urban, nomad and sedentary popula-tion groups) but suffering from the same uncertainties with respectto production, conclude to a shortfall of 250,000 tons.

(b) W4e have seen the impact on food crops, where total production(millet plus sorghum) will amount to 795,000 tons instead of the1,300,000 tons that might be expected in a year when the weatheris normal. It has already been noted that, while a bad year hasa direct impact on cash crop yields, its effects are continuedin the following year in the form of a reduction in the area sownwith the crops in question, as a result of a relative sense ofdisenchantment on the part of the farmer and a natural tendencyon his part to more than ever give priority to his food crops.In the case of groundnuts, the seed may well be eaten as food.For cotton, on the other hand, although parasitic attacks are less

severe, their effect is immediately felt in Niger where pest anddisease controL treatments are rarely applied. The upshot is amarkedly unfavorable impact on commercial crops. The lesson hasbeen clearly dr2awn and applied in the current so-called producti-vity operation and those in course of preparation: these seek tomake simultaneous improvements in both food and cash crops.

(c) Animal husband:y is affected not only in terms of its current out-

put but, more seriously, in its future potential.

Until statistical surveys have been made in conjunction with theforthcoming 1974 inoculation campaign, one can only guess as tothe number of livestock lost. It is the grazing area that has beenmost depleted. It may be found that the total normal herd of 4.5million head has been reduced to 2.5 million.

ANNEX IPage 4

Of the 2 million missing:

some have died;

some have been exported on an emergency basis;

some have been prematurely slaughtered;

some have been prematurely moved south of the border and have notreturned (500,000?);

some have been settled in new areas.

The effect of all this on the structure of the herds is equallyimportant for the future. It is clear that the old cows and calveswill have been the first to die. Overall, this reduction couldhave a rejuvenating effect and favor the reproduction rate.

4. Remedial action falls into two categories, short and lonR term:

(a) Short-term remedies should seek to mitigate the food shortage.

(i) In the first place, food reserves must be created to replacethose traditionally held by each family in the days of indi-vidual subsistence farming. This stockpiling policy fallsnaturally within the terms of reference of OPVN. A projectto build storehouses is currently under consideration withthe twin objectives of:

- regulating the prices of cereals (millet plus sorghum)consumed by the urban and semi-urban sectors of the popu-lation (centers with more than 5,000 inhabitants), esti-mated to total 623,000 persons in 1982;

- creating reserve stocks for this population, representingstandby supplies for a full three months.

On the basis of consumption at the rate of 210 kg per capita perannum (intermediate estimate) with the 20% margin needed to regulateprices, we arrive at the following estimates of the capacity needed:

Buffer stocks Reserve stocks Total

1972 12,000 tons 15,000 tons 27,000 tons

1982 27,000 tons 28,000 tons 55,000 tons

ANNEX IPage 5

A first stage of 15,000 tons will be completed by the end of 1973(US-AID loan). This capacity should be increased to 27,000 tons by 1975.

(ii) Storage capacity is nevertheless costly to create and maintain. 1/It is therefore justified ito think of investing at the same time in irrigationprojects, which perform a similar role by making available to the market acertain tonnage of food-in years of scarcity. Well-designed irrigation facil-ities, especially when located along the river, allow the harvesting of twointensive crops a year unaifected by the vagaries of climate.

(b) Long-term remedias should provide for ecological conservation andthe maintenance of agricull:ural production potential.

(i) In arable farming, soil protection and restoration techniques (ridg-ing and terracing), i.e. cc'ntour farming, have long been known. The plantingof Acacia albida (known as gao in Niger) in trench systems (10 x 10 meters)or as a windbreak, at least along property lines, should be widely introduced,whenever possible. In research every effort should be made to select or createvarieties (cereals, pulses) whose short growing-cycle will enable them to adaptto a rainfall of 80% of the current normal rainfall of the area where they areto be grown.

Turning to agricultural policy, one notes that the years in whichrainfall is scarcest are also those in which it is unequally distributedthroughout the country, so that every opportunity for geographical diversifi-cation should be seized and the number of individual projects for raising the

productivity of food and cash crops alike increased so as to cover the widestpossible area - in fact from Dosso to Zinder.

(ii) In forestry, priority sbould be given to reconstituting forestsclose to population centers as a source of firewood.

(iii) In animal husbandry, it had become clear in the course of the pastdecade that it was not enough to develop an infrastructure of stock wateringfacilities. A rational pasture system, avoiding overgrazing and permittingresowing, i.e. providing a positive and permanent assurance of fodder growingpotential, can only be achieved by specialization in the breeding function.This will allow the young livestock and the males to be taken out of the herd(destocked) at an early stage and it is also readily adaptable to wide fluc-tuations in the weight of sires.. The systematic exploitation of grazing areas(regular management of pastures and of watering points) will then be much

easier.

1/ Between CFAF 30,000 and 40,000 per ton for large silos, including clean-ing tower and handling equipment. CYAF 10,000 to 15,000 per ton forcooperative silos with a capacity of a few tons.

ANNEX IPage 6

5. One can hardly close these observations on the drought without somereference to artificial rainfall, which was twice attempted experimentally inNiger in the 1973 rainy season.

The first operation (which lasted 30 days) was entrusted to a spe-cialist company from Oklahoma (cost: CFAF 30 million), where this method issaid to have been used regularly over a long period. This American processis applied to cold clouds, which are bombarded with silver iodide. The techni-que has the advantage of only calling for limited and relatively light equip-ment, although silver iodide itself is a costly product. The operation tookplace principally in the eastern part of the country.

The French Government, for its part, improvised a similar operationunder its aid program. The French process is applied to warm clouds, whichare seeded-with sodium chloride. Substantial amounts are required on eachoccasion (several quintals) and a Transall aircraft (heavy cargo) is thereforeused.

The reports on these operations are not yet available. The factthat Niger's meteorological resources are very thinly spread will presumablymake it difficult both to adopt such methods and to evaluate their true results.

VARIATIONS IN ANNUAL RAINFALL AND IN NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS AT NIAMEY

heighth m m/m

1000 a K

900 A - Rainfallj B - Number of rainy days

[ 0~~~~~C- NORMAL ranfl

800 L. _C|-mD -ORMAL number of rainy days l

600 -

600- -2

400 4 160 A1

30 Ba

300 20

1921 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 19j50 1955 1960 1965 1970 -

World Bank-8825(R)

VARIATIONS IN ANNUAL RAINFALL AND IN NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS AT MARADI

heighth m m/m

1000|-

A - RainfallB - Number of rainy daysC-NORMAL rainfall I

900 D - NORMAL number of rainy days

800 '

E

e 11 A I700 - j, ,! (I -A

60-

600 7 -60 / A

V~~~~~~~~~~~350

300 20 \

1921 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1r50 1955 1960 1965 1970

World Barik-8826(R)

VARIATIONS IN ANNUAL RAINFALL AND IN NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS AT TAHOUA

heighth m m/m

1000 _

900 -A - Rainfall8 - Number of rainy daysC - NORMAL rainfallD0-NORMAL number of rainy days

E

700

600 0

500 -60 lA A + A/ I\4.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Z X

-50

I -.. - --

400 - -40 00', 00 4\7 7I 300 L \I ?n

\'xq '~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-A

200 1 1 1 1 1 i1921 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 r

World Bank-8827(R)

ANNEX IIPage 1

CURRENT SITUATION OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH

1, Most of the results summarized below 1/ were obtained during thepast decade as a result of the work of:

IRAT 2/ for general agronomy, cereals, pulses, forage crops and sugarcane;

IRCT 3/ for cotton.

2. In general agronomy, studies of mineral deficiencies in growingsilts and land-parcels hauve been made for the principal types of soil inNiger and supplemented by leaf diagnoses. In ferruginous tropical dune soils,phosphorus represents the main limiting factor; sulphur deficiencies are lessin evidence and occur less regularly; magnesium and trace-element deficiencieshave been noted in the soLls of the northern cereal-growing region; potassiumdeficiencies are exceptional. In the clay-loam soils of the valley of theNiger, Goulbis, Maggia and Komadougou, nitrogen is the only limiting factor.Land improvement studies were accordingly undertaken in the light of theabove situation. The dune soils at Tarna were given a corrective fertilizerdressing of 75 units of P205 and this, in association with 135 units of nitro-gen, enabled them to achieve the maximum output of P3 Kolo millet i.e. 30quintals ha 4/, whereas without fertilizer the yields for this crop are only6 - 8 quintals ha.

3. Since 1966 the yields from the succession cropping of groundnuts andmillet have been maintained at a high level of 20 quintals for millet and 23quintals for groundnuts through the application to 'each crop of a maintenancedressing of 20 kg of Pi05 on groundnuts and 20 kg of P2O5 plus 65 1gj of nitrogenon millet; these ferti izer quantities are computed by deducting from the re-quirements for each crop the nutrients left in the soil by the preceding crop.After seven years'of caltivation' the res:toration of the potassium has not yet.proved to be necessary.- It:'has been observed that the application of thesedressings has had a very favorable effect'on the resistance of the crops todrought..

4. In,order to-correct deficiencies,in'ph,o,sphoric acid, experimentalapplications of-basic phosphate'fertilizer-have been .made,since 1966 at

1/ Based on an IRAT'memorandum of December 1972.

2/ Institut de Recherches- Agronomiques Tr'opicales.

3/ Institut de Recherche pour le Coton et les Fibres Textiles.

4/ Quintal - 100 kilograms.'

ANNEX IIPage 2

Magaria and 1967 at Tarna with phosphate obtained from Tahoua. The natureof these soils (low acidity and little organic matter) and the generally in-adequate level of rainfall do not promote the achievement of rapid resultswith this phosphate. At Magaria the effect of its use did not become markeduntil the fourth year, when each kilogram of phosphate produced an additionalyield of I quintal of millet. At Tarna it showed results in the third year,each kilogram of phosphate producing substantial additional yields of 1.5 to2 quintals of millet.

5. As regards the fertilization of alluvial clay-loam soils, themaximum output of 137-62 sorghum obtained with 100 units of nitrogen hasbeen 51 quintals in Goulbi soils and 50 quintals in Maggia soils. On theirrigated rice plantations at Kolo the maximum output of 62 quintals wasobtained with D52-37 rice using 90 units of nitrogen. With organic manure,millet fertilization first shows significant results with an applicationof 10 tons/ha. The plowing in of 6 tons of groundnuts shells has proved asefficient on millet as that of 12 tons of manure an effect resulting fromthe improvement of the soil structure.

6. In the case of green manuring, cultivation techniques for producinga maximum green crop and for plowing it in have been perfected. On the basisof these techniques, detailed experimental work, including the study of thetransformation of organic matter in the soil, was again taken up in 1969 atTarna and Magaria; these experiments have not shown any significant resultsother than those attributable to working the soil.

7. So far as rotation patterns are concerned, the studies that havebeen made show that the succession cropping of cereals should be avoided.After fallowing, a groundnut/millet sequence is preferable to the reverse.Studies on the value of inter cropping (companion crops) as compared withsingle crops, point to the economic benefits of millet/groundnut and millet/cowpea associations, using only non-sophisticated methods.

8. With regard to working the land, a series of experiments on dunesoils with a fallow/groundnut/millet/millet rotation have been carried outsince 1965 at Tarna, since 1967 at Magaria and since 1968 at Kala-Pate:they point to the substantial results achieved by plowing (+40%) and byweeding (+20%) with millets under rotation, although the effect on ground-nuts is very minor. The reduction in soil fertility has not been established.With alluvial soils, preparatory field-work, plowing after the first rainson Goulbi soils and dry-plowing before the rains on the sandy loams of theMaggia,. double the yields. For field maintenance work, equipment that canreadily be drawn by a single ox has been perfected in association with CEEMAT.In the case of groundnuts, two spells of early maintenance work in the fieldsgive the same results as 3 or 4.

9. Between 1964 and 1972, agroclimatological and bioclimatological ex-periments undertaken by SEHA at Tarna have provided the basis for studies onthe water requirements of various crops, both dry season (wheat, onions,

ANNEX IIPage 3

tomatoes, maize and cowpeas) and rainy season (sorghum and cotton). It hiasithus been possible to recomnend certain guidelines for intensive cultivation,establish the soil potential in the Goulbi valley in Maradi under such con-ditions, study the allocation of water to these crops and thus ascertainoptimal irrigation guidelines from both technical and economic standpoints.These practical results are immediately available to engineers responsiblefor the design of improvements or to technicians directly supervising theexecution of projects and the operation of irrigation facilities,

10. So far as cereals are concerned, many new varieties of millet havebeen introduced as a result of internationally conducted cooperative experi-ments. Up to now, no variety has proved to be superior to the local P3 Kolo,which gives the best yield throughout the country with the exception of theTera region. Turning to fertilizers that show an immediate return, 15 kg ofnitrogen and 15 kg of P205 applied in the form of urea and triple superphos-phate give in Tarna an average additional yield of 5 quintals/ha. Its re-sults have proved uncertain in experiments in a number of other locations:it appears that, at best, additional yields of 3 quintals/ha can be obtainedwith P3 Kolo, which just about breaks even with the cost of the fertilizer.For sorghum, experiments at a number of locations have pointed to the valueof Jan Jare and of 137-62 in valley soils and of P3 Matankari on dune soils.In international cooperative experiments conducted since 1966, Indian andAmerican short-stemmed hydrids such as NK 300 and ms 172 x is 84-2 have givenyields exceeding 50 quintals/ha.

11. In the case of rice the D52-37 variety has been created as a resultof experiments: this variety has been created as a result of experiments:this variety has many uses and is adaptable for most purposes in Niger. IRAThas a wide range of very productive varieties such as IR8, although theirgrain quality is not yet satisfactory. A nitrogen dressing of 70 units ofnitrogen applied in the form of urea is a very good investment.

12. For groundnuts, experiments at a number of places have providedthe basis for determining the variety best adapted to each climatic region:

28.204 for areas with rainfall below 500 mm;

47.16 for areas with rainfall between-550 and 650 mm;

28.206 for areas with rainfall between 650 and 750 mm;

48.37 for the part of the region of Gaya with heavy rainfall,although groundnuts in this area are exposed to the risk ofrosette.

As far as fertilization is concerned, experiments conducted both on thestation and on various trial plots between 1965 and 1968 have pointed up theimportance of the application of 15 kg of P205 in the form of simple super-phosphate. This very economical fertilizer provides worthwhile additionalyields, ranging from 5 quiritals/ha in years of normal rainfall to 3 quantals/ha in drier years. Important residual effects have been-noted in millet crops

ANNEX IIPage 4

following groundnuts. With the first crop increases in yields run between2 and 3 quintals/ha and even with the second crop they are still of theorder of one quintal.

13. In the case of cowpeas (niebe), erect varieties insensitive tophotoperiodism have been under study since 1965. In each range of earlycowpeas, the most productive varieties have been selected and hybridized toobtain a cowpea with good seed qualities. The following can be recommendedfor widespread use:

TN 88-63 and 36-64 with a 70-day growing cycle, for areas withrainfall below 500 mm;

TN 4-69 and TN 65-64 with a growing cycle of 90 days, for areaswith rainfall between 550 and 650 mm;

TN 98-63 (sensitive to photoperiodism) with a growing cycle of130 days for areas with good rainfall.

14. So far as plant health is concerned, good yields (1,500 to 2,000kg/ha) can be obtained in monoculture with two applications of insecticidesat the rate of 3 litres/ha of Thymul 35 (35% Endosulfan), the first applica-tion being made at the beginning of the flowering period and the second tendays afterwards. An economically acceptable technique for preserving theseed under plastic bags with the use of carbon tetrachloride has beendeveloped.

15. Research work on the cultivation of vegetables has mainly been con-fined to tomatoes, onions and sweet peppers. For tomatoes, the Marmande andRonita varieties can be recommended in the light of experiments. The lattervariety is very hardy, is resistant to nematodes and is the one that doesbest as a rainy-season crop. Water requirements and critical watering periodshave been established. In the case of onions, experiments have furnished awide range of varieties to be eaten fresh (Blanc de Soumarana). Experimentshave shown that the best density both in terms of yield and in terms of keep-ing qualities has been 450,000 plants/ha. As for tomatoes, water requirementsand critical watering periods have been established. For sweet peppers, twoselected local types, viz. TP 16-61 and TP 20-61, with very spicy tastingfruit, low-growing and bright red in color, can produce more than 3 t/ha(dried peppers).

16. With respect to fodder crops, the best fodder species have beenselected from varietal series and experiments for rainfed valley cultivation(early sorghum) and with irrigation (Pennisetum purpureum, Brachiaria ruzziensis)and for dune cultivation (late millet, early cowpea, hyacinth bean (dolique)).

17. Certain varieties of sugar cane are showing their superiority incane yields (130 t/ha) and in sugar content (12%). These are NCO 310 and

ANNEX IIPage 5

B 43-62 as early varieties for the beginning of the season and CO 740 andNC 376 as mid and end of season varieties. The water consumption of sugarcane has been determined by nuclear methods. For a 12 months crop it is ofthe order of 22,000 m3/ha, i.ev 2,200 mm (including 500 mm of rainfall).Planting in trenches, by increasing the amount of soil available to the roots,permits economies in the use of water. The sprinkler irrigation parametersthat provide for a most efficient use of irrigation water have also beenestablished (irrigation period; class of sprinkler; pressure; water flow;mesh). The appendix to this Annex outlines the technical specifications forthe irrigation of sugar cane at Tillabery, based on the results of 5 years'experimental work.

18. In the case of cotton, it has been shown that the water content ofalluvial soils is generally adequate as a result of flood irrigation. Inthese soils nitrogen may become the limiting factor: increases in yield ofbetween 2 and 3 quintals/lha can be obtained with an application of 50 kg/haof urea. With respect to varieties, the HAR 444.2 hybrid has so far shownitself to be the best in terms of agricultural yields and technologicalsuperiority.

ANNEX IIAPPENDIX

SUMMARY OF SPECIFICATIONS FOR THE CULTIVATION OF SUGAR CANE

UNDER IRRIGATION AT TILLABERY

Planting period: October-NovemberFebruary-March

Irrigation:

- quantity 25,000 m3/ha/year

- watering time 5pm - 9am

Varieties:

- initial period (November/December) NCO 310 - CO 775 - N 50/211

- middle period (January/February) NCO 376 - CO 740

- final period (March/May) CO 740 - NCO 376 - B 43/62

Fertilizer - first growth N: 100 kg/ha - P05: 80kg/-ha k20: 150 kg/ha

- ratoons N: 100-130 kg/ha - K20:

150 kg/ha

Risks to plant health Striga - culmiculous smut(charbon)

Number of ratoon crops 5

Average yield in tons of cane per hectare(large-scale cultivation) 100-105

Industrial content of the cane (%) 13.5-14.0

Sugar extractable from the cane (%) 11.0-11.5

Yield in tons of extractable sugar per hectare 11-12

Start of processing period May 15

Close of processing period October 15

Duration of processing period 160-165 days

Source: IRAT - Experimentation canne a sucre - Synthese

(Sugar cane experiments summary), 1973

ANNEX III

OFEDES AND THE PROBLEM OF WATER RESOURCES

1. The aim of the Niger Government water policy is to progressivelymeet the water needs of all utilizable territory, i.e. in the region southof the 300 mm isohyet. A program to provide a more effective water supplyfor some 2,150 villages of over 300 inhabitants was drawn up in 1965 by con-sultants with FED financing NEDECO.

2. The Office des Eaux du Sous-sol (OFEDES - Ground IWater Office) wasestablished in May 1963 and placed under the aegis of the Ministry of Ruraleconomy. Its principal roLe is the maintenance and operation of wells ofall kinds in rural areas. It is represented in every Department in thecountry. This organization appears to be an efficient one, especially whenit is borne in mind that the lack of maintenance of both structures andpumping facilities represents the major obstacle to the operation of wellsin Africa. OFEDES maintains some 1,300 wells a year, visiting each well onceevery three years. OperatLng costs (personnel and fuel) and maintenance arecharged to consumers, save in pastoral areas, where the State is fully re-sponsible for the operation of all wells.

3. OFEDES is also responsible for the manpower investment ("investissementhumain") in wells, for which it undertakes the "underwater" excavation: some150 wells are provided each year. It is estimated that the population con-tributes some 25% of the cost of this work (1970). The cost per linear meteris of the order of CFAF 20,,000 to 30,000.

4. Realizations include some 4,000 modern cemented wells serving 9,000villages. A substantial part of this has been financed by FED over the pastten years (CFAF 2 to 3 million a well).

5. A four-year program (1973-76) provides for the construction byOFEDES of 200 to 225 wells a year in the Departments of Niamey, Dosso, Tahouaand (more especially) Maradi. It is expected to be financed under a seriesof bilateral and international aid agreements.

ANNrEX IVPage I

EXPORTS OF FRESII VEGETABLES: SONIPRIM -

1. European demand for vegetables is constantly increasing. In addition,consumers want to have throughout the year vegetables that were formerly notavailable in winter. Except for hothouse-grown vegetables--which rank asluxuries-- and early vegetables grow¢n under glass or plastic one or two monthsahead of the main season, European production is unable to meet this demandfrom December 15 to April 15. The Sudan-Sahel region with its long dry season(November-March), in which the temperature is low enough (28-32' C) not todamage growing plants, is well placed to produce such vegetables under irriga-tion. It has the additional advantage of having inexpensive manpower avail-able for these labor-intensive crops (some 3,000 hours/ha).

2. The varieties concerned must be valuable enough to be able to carrythe high cost of airfreight (some Ff 1.70/kg between Western Africa and Europe).The Prices fetched in the Rungis (Paris) market in France provide a basis fordividing these off-season varieties into three categories:

- vegetables whose price is consistently above Ff 5/kg: 2/ strawqberries,fine and extra fine string beans;

- vegetables whose price lies between Ff 3 and Ff 6/kg: eggplant(aubergine) and sweet peppers;

- vegetables whose price lies between Ff 2 and Ff 4/kg: tomatoes andcucumbers.

To these may be added melons, which grow very well in dry tropical regions butwhose price very largely depends on quality.

3. SONIPRIMI was formed in December 1970 to exploit this opportunity ofproducing off-season vegetables. It is located at Goudel, a fewq kilometersfrom Niamey where it has irrigation facilities along the river. SONIPRIMis a mixed corporation, 80% of its capital of CFAF 20 million belonging tothe Niger Government and 20% to a French importer. Under an agreement withthe Government, SONIPRIM received an area of 62 hectares equipped with sprin-klers, which was increased to 87 hectares at the end of 1973 in return itis required to maintain and amortize these facilities, supervise the farmersundertaking the field work, purchase their output at a price set in advance,and package and market the produce. In addition to this irrigated area,SONIPRIM has a packaging station, offices, agricultural equipment and somevehicles. It has so far been receiving technical assistance from a BDPA 3/(FAG) expert.

1/ Societe Nigerienne des Primeurs.

2/ Ff 1.00 = IJs$0.20.

3/ Bureau pour le Developpement de la Production Agricole (a French Govern-

ment development agency).

ANNEX IVPage 2

4. Production has expanded as follows, giving an average yield of about10 tons/hectare:

. 1971/72 360 tons

. 1972/73 500 tons

. 1973/74 700 tons

. 1974/75 1,000 tons (estimated)

Tile land produces two crops between September and April on an averageof 2.6 crops per calendar year. The crops fall into the following categories:

- export crops (Septemnber-April): beans, melons, sweet peppers;also eggplants;

- rainy-season crops sown with an eye to rotation: principally maize,but also sorghum and sesame, with additional irrigation if necessary;

- dry-season crops for the domestic market: onions, cabbage, water-melon.

Tile program of export crops for 1973/74 is as follows:

Area Estimated yield Marketable output(hectares) (tons/hectare) /1 (tons/hectare) /2

Melons 21 6 4.8

Beans 72 6 5.3

Sweet peppers 14 7 - G 6 - 7

Egg-plant 2

/1 Including local consumption./2' 10 to 20% rejections at packaging stage.

On the 67 hectares available at present some 200 farm workers are employedunder the supervision of 3 instructors (moniteurs). These farm workers areneither wage-earners nor independent cultivators, either status being in-compatible with an operation of this kind. They are, in fact, piece-workers.Each farm worker is allotted a parcel of ten to thirteen ares 1/(1,000 to 1,300m2) of each crop planted. The farm workers follow the cultivation program estab-lished by SONIPRIM, which undertakes certain field work, furnishes supplies,

1/ One hlectare = 100 ares.

ANNLX IVPage 3

and purchases the output at a price fixed in advance, after acceptance andsorting at the packaging station. The most senior farm workers are establishedas independent settlers on parcels alloted to them.

The annexed table shows production costs of some crops.

The packaging station has 90 m3 of cold storage at 7° C. It is runby a station manager and uses seasonal labor (120 to 140 women) paid on apiece-work basis (CFAF 5/kg (packaged) for string beans) or by the hour.

5. Produce is exported to Ivory Coast, Brussels, Paris and Marseille.

Average prices at Niamey are around CFAF 150/kg and at Le Bourget(Paris) CFAF 250/kg.

6. The operating accounts of the farm workers indicate that they arevery well remunerated for their work, which is, moreover, not very demandingin the rainy season. To consider only the three major export crops, theaccounts of a farmer working 12 ares (1,200 m2) of each crop are as follows:

SONIPRIM Net Net In- Hours ofCrop Purchase Total income Marketed output come from work on

Price Cost /1 per kg kg/ha kg/12 ares 12 "ares" 12 "ares"

Melons 50 24.60 .25.40 6,000 720 18,290 204

Beans 75 62.20 12.80 6,000 720 9,220 324

Sweetpeppers 30 24.20 5.80 8,000 960 5,570 144

33,080 672

/1 Excluding labor.

Each hour worked is paid almost CFAF 50, i.e. 1.7 times the SMIG (legal minimumwage).

7. SONIPRIM's operating accounts for 1972/73 should show a net profit(still modest in relation to previous cumulative losses, which have exceededCFAF 44 million):

ANNEX IVPage 4

Charges (CFAY) Proceeds (C.FAF)

Depreciation 6,707,000

Operations (local personnel, office,finance costs, insurance, fuel,electric power, miscellaneous) 15,590,000

Net profit on export sales:string beans (135,000 kg X CFAF 35) 4,725,000sweet peppers (113,000 kg X CFAF 27) 3,051,000melons (255,000 kg X CFAF 37) 9,435,000

Net profit on local melon sales(rejects)

(64,000 kg X CFAF 25) 1,600,000other 4,000,000

Operating profit 513,60022,811,000 22,811,000

8. Thus, after a diifficult start, SONIPRIM now seems to get its accountsbalanced; however, it has not yet entirely solved certain problems:

- the present status of the labor force is the outcome of otherexperiments, in which the field workers were either paid %Yages orwere independent cultivators. The present approach appears to bea wise one. It might well lead to a production cooperative inorder to blend into the general pattern of Niger rural development;

- the cost of air freight (CFAF 85/kg between Niger and Europe) andthe availability' of freight space from Niamey limit the expansionof SONIPRIM's activities;

- sprinkler irrigation is undertaken every two days; it is a major itemin the costs of production (20 to 25% of total costs excluding labor).Water consumption could be reduced by erecting windbreaks (oasiseffect) and by using the drip dressing system;

- it has proved difficult to find the 25 tlha of manure required toenrich the soil with organic matter. A link-up with the traditionallivestock fattening operations being developed in the Niamey region(along the river) should provide a solution to this problem;

ANNEX IVPage 5

the drying-out of harvested vegetables is a major factor in thisseason of the year (10 to 30 per cent); it is as important to combatthis at the sorting stage in the field (under shelter) as well asat the packing station and in cold storage (humidification);

there is still not even an insulated truck available for trans-portation from the packing station to the point of shipment, noris there any refrigerated transit storage at Niamey airport; itis planned to provide such facilities (with FED financing);

the system of sales on commission having proved a disaster, theadoption of firm selling prices should now restore SONIPRIM'snegotiating power;

European import duties (of the order of CFAF 25/kg since January 1,1972) weight heavily on SONIPRIM's operations, since they are ofthe same order of magnitude as its profit. Some reduction in theseduties should be negotiable with EEC.

ANNEX IVPage 6

SONIPRIM - Fresh vegetable produce

Produiction costs

(CFAF/ha)

Operating costs String beans Melons Sweet peppers

(a) Soil preparation

1/2 sub-soiling 5 tractcor hours 3,750 3,750 3,7502

x 1,500

1/2 double-furrow plowing5 tractor hours x 1,50V 3,750 3,750 3,750

2

disc plowing 1.5 hours x 1,500 2,250 2,250 2,250

rotary plowing 3 hours x 1,500 4,500 4,500 4,500

Total (a) 14,250 14,250 14,250

(b) Sowing or planting

drill-sowing (or planting) 2tractor hours + labor 3,180

planting by hand 6,700 plants x 6 40,200

labor + 40,000 plants :X 0.50 27,500

(c) Treatments (dressings)

CFAF 1,500 per hour of treatment 9,000 15,000 4,500

(d) Supplies

Seeds 51,300 3,750 1,750Fertilizer 10,000 20,000 50,000Manure 10,000 12,500 12;500Pesticides 7,800 20,250 6,300Water 6,000 m3 x CFAF 8 48,000

6,5007,200

Total (d)117,100 109,000 128,150

(e) Amortization and miscellaneous 43,"072 43,072 43,072

Cost per hectare without labor(SONIPRIM services) 186,602 221,522 217,472Labor 2,700 hours x CFAF 30 81,000

1,700 hours x l'FAF 30 51,0001,200 hours x CFAF 30 36,000Prime cost per hectare 267,602 272,522 253,472

Output marketed kg/h.a 3,000 9,000 9,000

Total cost in CFAF/kg 67 30 28

Source: SONIPRIM

ANNEX IVPage 7

SONIPRIM - Fresh vegetable produce

Costs of export packaging and marketing(CFAF/kg)

String beans Melons Sweet peppers

Operating costs

(a) Purchases

10% sorting losses 75 + 8 8350 + 5 55

30 + 3 33

(b) Packaging 11 7 9

(c) Crating and labeling 30 52 25

(d) Intermediate costs

Transport from field topacking station 2

Cold storage 3Handling 2

Transport to airport 3Transit 2

12 12 12 12

(e) Export duties - Niamey 5 5 5

(f) Air transport Niamey - Europe

(freight CFAF 85/kg) 98

(1 kg + 0.15 kg box) x 85 7.10

1/6 x (6 kg + 0.6 kg crate + 0.5 kg breakages) x 85 94

(1 kg + 0.1 kg box x 85)

(g) Commission (14%); selling costs in Europe (9%)

Average selling price

CFAF 350 - 350 x 0.23 81

CFAF 350 - 350 x 0.23 81

CFAF 250 - 350 x 0.18 45

Total cost (including marketing) 315 313 223

Average selling price 350 350 250

SONIPRIM profit 35 37 27

Source: SONIPRIM

ANNEX VPage 1

BADEGUICHERI PROJECT

1. The Badeguicheri. Valley is located in the region usually known asAder-Doutchi-Maggi (ADM), for which a 15-year development program was pre-pared in 1965. In view of the size of the program and the impossibility ofdeveloping the entire ADM region, it had been decided to postpone the develop-ment of the Badeguicheri V'alley until a later stage. Meanwhile studies havebeen prepared by Consultarnts - ORSTOM and SOGETHA - concerning the introduc-tion of irrigated farming into the valley. The justifications for the presentproject are various. The main one is that to ensure an adequate return on thedevelopment of the valley, there must first be an improvement in cultivationmethods. There are others that arise out of the urgent problems the area isnow facing, such as overpopulation, shortage of land, severe erosion and in-adequate utilization of the agricultural potential of fertile land in thevalley.

2. The aim of the Badeguicheri project is therefore: (i) to increasethe total output of cereals, which at present is barely sufficient to coverlocal food requirements in an average year; (ii) to increase cotton productionin order to raise the cash earnings of the farmers; and (iii) to protect andultimately restore the soil through anti-erosion measures.

3. The principal characteristics of the Badeguicheri Valley and theproject are the following:

- an area of 670 km2 fed by a catchment area of 1,415 km2;

- tracks barely passable in the rainy season;

- average rainfall 450 mm/year over 3 to 4 months;

- the valley soils, of alluvial origin, are extremely fertile, whileon the tablelands overlooking the valley soils are of low fertility;

- area covered by the project:

8,100 hectares of valley land;

3,900 hectares of table land;

- total population affected by the project: 30,700 (in 1969) with a2.6Z estimated growth rate;

- during the dry sf!ason each year, one third of the male working popu-lation leaves for countries on the coast.

- crops grown are:

AŽiNE.X vPage 2

(a) in the rainy season: millet, sorghum and cotton (the last(mentioned) only recently introduced);

(b) in the dry season, under irrigation: onions, tomatoes, tobaccoand others;

- the valley is subject to severe and progressive erosion with thethreat of rapid soil deterioration if counter-measures are nottaken.

4. The above seems to indicate that the land is being overworked sinceland lying fallow has practically disappeared. Due tc the population growthrate and the effects of erosion a critical situation may soon emerge, if onlyin terms of the food supply. Agricultural research has, however, shown that:

- yields of food and vegetable crops can be substantially increased;

- cotton yields can at least be doubled;

- measures against erosion can be effective.

5. The present project has the following components:

- action to increase yields of cereals, vegetable crops and cotton;

- action to protect and restore the soils (3,000 hectares);

- action to develop rural roads (100 km of dirt roads) to improvecommunication and transportation.

The duration of the project is 4 years starting April 1972. Its cost isCFAF 345 million, of which CFAF 315 million is being financed by FED (invest-ments and operations) and CFAF 30 million by the Niger Government (localpersonnel).

6. Extension and application of modern techniques in the cultivationof cereals, cotton and vegetables should succeed, whether the assumptionsmade are conservative or optimistic, in creating substantial production sur-pluses by the 6th year.

ANNEX VPage 4

the project will be covered by additional revenues arising out of the pro-ject. 1/

8. At the end of the first season (early 1973), the operation had

gotten off to a good start --1,437 ha of cotton (of which 323 had been treat-

ed) produced 1,170 tons of seed cotton (814 kg/ha); soil protection and res-

toration measures had begun on the Raha site, where the target of 400 ha was

achieved, though at a higher than estimated cost (CFAF 21,100/ha). Also, the

project is experiencing difficulties in recruiting staff, both local and ex-

patriate.

1/ Source: Ministry of Rural Economy + IBRD 1971. The IBRD missiondoes not necessarily confirm these figures although they appearreasonable for this kind of project.

ANNEX VIPage 1

RURAL DEVELOFNENTI PROJECT FOR THE ZINDFR REGION 1/

1. -The long-term project of integrated rural development in the Zinderregion is the first so-called productivity operation launched in Niger. Itaffects only the 3 southern Arrondissements of the Department (Mirria, Mata-meye, Magaria), hence its name of "3M' project. The project area is typicalNiger groundnut country, straddling the 600 mm isohyet. With an area of28,000 km2, it has a population (including the towm of Zinder) of 570,000,i.e. three-fourths of the population of the Department. There are 120,000farms cultivating 611,000 hectares. The average farm grows the followingcrops on some 5 ha.:

- cereals: 2.9 ha.

- cowpeas (niebe): 1.3 ha.

- groundnuts: 1.8 ha.

Cash income is derived from groundnuts.

2. The aim of the project is to combat extensive methods of cultivationand the consequential reduction of agricultural incomes. It is conceived inthree successive phases of agricultural intensification (food and commercialcrops) with a view to an increase in yields and the maintenance or restora-tion of soil fertility; t:he development of cattle fattening and, finally, the

establishment of forest plantations for firewood. It was initially plannedthat the first phase would cover 6 years, but this has now been reduced to4. The technical program of the first phase provides specifically for:

- an agricultural, program based on the progressive dissemilationof established techniques (for groundnuts: fungicides, selectedseeds, seed density, weeding, corrective fertilizer treatment,maintenance dressing);

- an infrastructure program: 55 kilometers of rural feeder roads;50 cemented wells for village water supply (to be built ulthmanpower furnished by OFEDES);

- organization of the farmers;

- experimental work and trials in preparation of the subsequent phases(introduction of cattle fattening and firewood plantations).

1/ Sources: Project 3M, (Commissariat General au Developpement - July1971) and UNCC.

ANNEX VI

Page 2

3. For the purposes of this program the project area has been divided

into three zones that are relatively homogeneous in terms of population den-

sity, growth pattern, and saturation and degree of exhaustion of the soil. In

each of these zones the typical farm must evolve gradually, both in its rota-

tion techniques (areas devoted to various crops) and in its cultivation,

methods. The following table shows a typical farm in zone I at the outset

and at the end (sixth year) of the development period:

Area in hectares Yield Production Gross proceeds

(kg/ha) in kg in CFAF 1/

Traditional farming

Cereals 2.6 460 1,196 11,960

Groundnuts 2.1 485 1,018 14,250

26,210

Intensive farming

Cereals 2 1,500 3,000 30,000

Groundnuts 2 1,500 3,000 42,000

72,000

Supplies, credit and marketing are ensured through the cooperatives. At the

farm level gross proceeds would be tripled and agricultural income doubled.

Total production should increase as follows (in years of "normal"

weather):

Year 0 Year 4

Cereals 161,000 tons 177,000 tons

Groundnuts (in shell) 116,000 tons 139,000 tons

4. The zone is currently organized into 43 farming cooperatives (418

GMVs (Groupements Mutualistes Villageois) grouped in 9 ALCs (Associations

Locales de Cooperatives).

1/ At 1971 prices.

ANNEX VIPage 3

The cooperative organization will be gradually expanded and willdevelop its own supervisory structure:

- at the GMV (village) level: 1 farmer-demonstrator;

- for each cooperative: extension assistant responsible for basicliteracy and ior training in new techniques. Recruited from amongstthe farmer-demaonstrators and paid CFAF 5,000 per month, he will beresponsible for the area covered by a single cooperative, i.e. anaverage of 10 villages, 3,000 people and 500 farms.

The operational structure itself will comprise:

- at the ALC level, a team of officials from UNCC and from the agri-cultural, extension and basic literacy services, under the super-vision of a coordinator coopted for the purpose, and under UNCCmanagement;

- a similar teau' at the arrondissement level;

- at the project level, the project manager will be the UNCC depart-mental representative. He will be assisted by:

1 deputy responsible for on-farm extension services;

1 agricultural instructor;

1 agricultural economist.

UNCC is responsible for the project under the terms of an agreement-made withMER (Ministere de l'Economie Rurale). Officials from other services are, how-ever, not detached to bul: merely placed at UNCC's disposal as part of an "inte-grated operation".

5. The cost of the first phase of 4 years will amount to CFAF 826million, of which (end oij 1972) CFAF 521 million is to be financed by a grantfrom FED (European Development Fund) covering:

- soil studies;

- support missions;

- theoretical and practical training;

- facilities for supervisory personnel;

- corrective fertilizer treatment;

- construction of rural roads and wells;

ANNI ŽY vPage 4

- construction and improvement of buildings.

The Niger Government's contribution of CFAF 305 million covers the cost ofsupervisory personnel, maintenance costs and an increasing part of operatingcosts. No conclusions-can be drawn from this project as '1973 has been thestart-up period.

ANNEX VIIP'age 1

MARADI INTEGRATED RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1/

1. With some 20% of the rural population, almost 20% of the cultivatedarea, and accounting for about 20% of cereal and 50% of groundnut production,the Department of Maradi is one of the main agricultural regions of Niger.Together with the neighboring Department of Zinder it produces 90% of totalgroundnut output. As in the Department of Zinder, the main problem is presentedby extensive farming methlods resulting in poor utilization of inputs, relative-ly inefficient cultivation methods, and very inadequate on-farm extension andagricultural credit faci:Lities. The project, covering a period of five years(1974/75 to 1978/79), is designed primarily to introduce the methods neededto raise yields and production, without increasing cultivated area, whichalready represents a large proportion of the cultivable potential. Otherimportant components such as animal husbandry, irrigation, training, health,and roads, together with the acceleration of the cooperative movement, makethis project potentially by far the most important integrated rural develop-ment project in Niger.

2. The project would cover the entire Department, although the develop-ment of rainfed crops is likely, of course, to be limited to the north by the350 mm isohyet, the southern fringe of the region having a rainfall of 650 mmin normal years. The scheme would affect 500,000 people (90% of the popula-tion of the Department, i.e. 80,000 families or farms, distributed among 700villages and cultivating 430,000 hectares. The cooperatives have expandedtheir role in the marketing of groundnuts: there are now a total of 50 co-operatives grouped in 13 ALCs. 2/ For the purposes of the agricultural part ofthe project the region has been divided into four roughly homogeneous zones:

- North: sandy dune soils with rainfall below 500 mm;

- South: sandy dune soils with rainfall exceeding 500 mm;

- The goulbis: valleys with seasonal washes and clay soils;groundwater tabLe; (the average farm in these valleys issmaller with 3.1;0 ha against an average of 5.40 ha);

- Danissa: the best watered region, in the south, in whichmost cotton-growing is concentrated.

3. The operational program has 10 components:

(i) continued development of rainfed crops through an increasein yields to be obtained by the adoption of technical methodswell-tried in the region. As in other so-called productivityoperations based on rainfed crops, any projection of resuLtsshould incorporate a number of fixed margins or progress ratios:

1/ The following is a summary of the project status in January 1974 anddoes not imply approval by the Government or IDA in this or any other form.

2/ Associations Locales de Cooperatives.

ANNEX VIIPage 2

(a) the potential yield obtainable under normal soil and climatic

conditions through correct application of cultivation methods(based on research); i.e. the margin of increase in relation to

traditional yields;

(b) the adjustment factor to be applied to this margin in order to

obtain the margin that can reasonably be expected in the local

agricultural context: this margin will increase as the programdevelops (in step) with the improvement of the farmers' technical

slcills;

(c) the proportion of the total number of farms that will adopt

modern techniques; analysis of a rural population shows that

initially a small group of farmers, naturally responsive to newideas, can very rapidly be mobilized; a much larger number will be

mobilized progressively, especially by the example of the success

of the first group; lastly, for various reasons, a third group(some 30 to 50%) is, in practice, almost wholly unresponsive and

represents wastage. In addition, different new ideas may be more

or less difficult to introduce and therefore adopted more or lessrapidly, producing final rates of acceptance varying from veryhigh to very low (90% to 2%);

(d) during the implementation period of the project, the percentage of

cultivated area benefitting from the new techniques will graphi-

cally have the form of an S-curve, following the acceptance pat-

tern described above, since farmers who have only recently been

won over to new methods apply them only gradually to the total

area they cultivate.

In the case of Maradi, the combined effect of these factors should have the

following impact on the output development of the principal rainfed crops:

Initial year Final year of program End of maturation periodCrop 1974/75 1978/79 1982/83

(tons) (tons) (Percentage (tons) (Percentageincrease increase79/74) 83/74)

Sorghum +millet 137,000 157,000 15 175,000 28

Groundnuts 69,000 92,000 33 115,000 67

Cowpeas (niebe) - 1,600 100 1,600 100

Cotton 300 1,500 500 1,800 600

ANTEX VIIPage 3

Extension services as well as supplies of inputs (particularlyfertilizers with a 50% subsidy), credit and marketing will be provided byan operational machinery based on the expansion of the cooperative structure:

Level Personnel Personnel at endof program (year 5)

Cooperative 1 extension officer forevery 3 villages 475

ALC 1 ALC chief plus two assistants(extension services, basicliteracy, bookkeeping) 25 + 50

Arrondissement 1 chief of arrondissement 6

Project (Maradi) 1 project director;1 agronomist; 1 assistant 2

On completion oE the project its basic personnel (extension personnel)will be taken over by the cooperatives: the Government will merely be chargedwith the recurrent cost of supervisory personnel.

(ii) irrigated crops will be developed in the goulbis through theutilization of groundwater for the irrigation of riversideterraces, thus :Leaving the goulbi lands proper to their presentcrops or reserv:Lng their future development to possible irriga-tion schemes on a larger scale. Within a radius of 10 to 15 kmaround Maradi, 'O wells will be dug and equipped with electricalpumps to be supplied with power from Maradi. Each pumping unitwill be capable of irrigating a nucleus of 10 ha, divided among20 families. Each family lot of 0.50 ha will be divided intotwo parts of 25 ares, one being devoted to cotton, and the otherto sorghum in the rainy season (possibly supplemented by :Lrriga-tion), and to on!ions, tomatoes and tobacco in the dry season.The tomatoes prciduced will help to supply a tomato concentratefactory projected for Maradi. These 500 ha of irrigated landare expected to produce the following crops by the fifth year:

ANTNEX VIIPage 4

Tons

Cotton 700

Sorghum 800

Tomatoes 2,700

Onions 3,100

Tobacco 50

The development of these irrigated crops is to be supervised bya special team made up of one agricultural engineer and 10 exten-sion agents.

(iii) concerning animal husbandry, the project restricts itself to ac-celerating the rate of recovery of the herd, estimated at 348,000head of cattle in 1973, through more effective health protectionand better conditions for cattle movements (transhumance), i.e.additional vaccination facilities; drovers' trails; grazing re-serves. No fattening of stock on the irrigated nuclei is planned,except on an experimental basis. The size of the herd and salesproceeds (milk, and especially meat at an estimated price of CFAF70 or 80/kg live weight) are expected to be the following:

Program year

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-20

Number ofcattle(thou-sands) 360 379 401 420 433 443 450 467

Proceeds ofsales (CFAFmillion) - 967 1,091 1,356 1,540 1,743 1,729 1,756 1,954

(iv) the project will itself realize a number of subsidiary measures:

- seed production (groundnuts); the project will be responsible forthe seed multiplication plan and will itself undertake the MI,M2 and M3 multiplications;

- associated experiments on about 10 pilot-farms;

ANNEX VIIPage 5

- evaluation of results through continuing surveys based on statis-tical analysis with random sampling;

- training of ext:ension personnel at the Maradi CFJA (Centre deFormation des Jeunes Agriculteurs) converted for this purpose;refresher trairning of officials responsible for project Super-vision;

- training of village blacksmiths (60 a year).

(v) the development of the cooperative structure will focus on theformation and equipment of 12 new ALCs;

(vi) special importance will be attached to the training of young farmers(one center to each ALC), rural leaders (7,000), members of coopera-tives (3,500), and supervisory personnel for cooperatives (4,000).14,000 persons will receive basic literacy training (one center toevery three villages);

(vii) rural roads will be built to open up the southwestern region (75 kmof roads plus one bridge);

(viii) three hectares of trees for firewood will be planted for eachvillage, i.e. 2,000 ha in all;

(ix) in the health fLeld, first-aid personnel, midwives, and women'sconsciousness-raising agents ("animatrices feminines") will betrained to double their present number, four dispensaries will bebuilt with Govelnment budget financing;

(x) to ensure adequate agricultural credit, the project will have aworking capital of US$1,400,000 deposited in an account opened inits name at BDPI. 1/ Credit is based on joint and several recipro-cal guarantees at the cooperatives level.

4. For rainfed crops the impact of extension activities is projectedon the basis of a number of assumptions based on previous experience: Theyields L:,at can be obtained by farmers through the successive introduction ofnew techniques are estimated as follows (in kg/ha) for the worth (of isoyet600 mm) and the south of 1:he project area:

1/ Banque de Developpement de le Republique du Niger.

ANNEX VIIPage 6

Groundnuts MilletType of technique used North South North South

Traditional technique 400 500 400 500

Fungicides 450 550 425 525

plus selected seeds 550 700 - -

plus seed density 800 950 - -

plus fertilizer 950 1,150 - -

plus improved varieties - - 500 650

plus soil preparation - - 700 850

plus carry-over effects of fertilizer:(Ist year) - - 900 1,100(2nd year) - - 800 1,100

Furthermore, the effective application of the new methods, expressed as apercentage of the number of farmers reached by extension services in year 1,is estimated to develop in the following way during the subsequent 5 years,after which no further progress is expected:

Groundnuts

Program year

1 2 3 4 5Category

Fungicides 50 65 75 85 90

plus selected seeds 10 20 30 45 60

plus seed density 5 10 20 35 50

plus fertilizer (North) 5 10 15 20 25

plus fertilizer (South) 5 15 20 25 30

ANNEX VIIPage 7

Millet and Sorghum

Program year

Type of technique used 1 2 3 4 5

Fungicides 15 25 40 55 75

plus selected seeds - 5 10 20 35

plus carry-over effect of fertilizers(North) - 5 10 15 20(South + goulbi) - 5 15 2n 25

plus cultivation with animal traction - 1 2 3 5

From this standpoint the operation can be divided into two phases, one ofinvestment (years 1-5) and one of maturation (years 6-10), at the end ofwhich the increased yields estimated above will have been fully realized.It is further assumed that all normally cultivable land is occupied and thatthe area under cultivation and the ratio of cereals to groundnuts remainunchanged. Moreover, the primary aim of the project is to maximize output ofrainfed crops, without regard to changes in rural employment resulting froma population increase of more than 20% in the course of the (full) durationof the project (10 years).

5. The project would be implemented by an ad hoc agency, e.g. an"Organisme de Developpement Rural de Maradi" (ODRM) under the supervisionof the Ministry of Rural Economy, which is to integrate the functions andpersonnel of the four Government services currently active in the field(Agriculture, UNCC, Animation rurale and Promotion Humaine). The road,forest, health and livestock components of the project would be the respon-sibility of the competent liger authorities based on a work program agree-ment with the Maradi agency; all other components will be the direct respon-sibility of the project. Project management and supervisory services wouldbe reinforced by 6 permanent expatriate technical assistants recruited in-dividually:

1 agricultural adviser,1 chief of irrigal:ion and cotton programs,1 agricultural engineer in charge of the seed multiplication unit,1 agronomist responsible for associated research,1 expert to assist: the director of training.

6. The project cost would amount to about US$16.5 million (CFAF 4billion), of which US$3.5 million for contingencies and US$13 million forinvestment or development expenditures, broken down as follows:

ANNEX VIIIPage 8

in US$ thousands

Project headquarters 1,000

Rainfed crops 2,400

Irrigation 800

Animal husbandry 1,100

Research - seed production 500

Training of extension personnel 500

Training of village blacksmiths 90

Location of cooperatives 1,200

Training - basic literacy 2,300

Roads 800

Forests 300

Health 300

Credit funds (working capital) 1,400

Consultants 400

Total 13,000

It is estimated that after the investment period, representing the first five

years, recurrent expenditures in each subsequent year will amount to CFAP 230

million (personnel and operating costs of ODRM and of the technical or co-

operatives staff for which the cooperatives themselves are not assuming re-

sponsibility), to which should be added a subsidy for insecticides and fer-

tilizers rising from CFAF 165 million in year 6 to CFAF 295 rallion in year10.

7. The economic appraisal of the project, covering a 10-year period,

shows an economic internal rate of return of the order of 20%, (including

20-30% for rainfed crops, 50% for animal husbandry and 30% for irrigated

crops).

ANNEX VIIIPage 1

RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF DOSSO

1. In recent years the Department of Dosso has been the subject of anumber of studies and experiments:

- 1967/70 - UNDP/FAO - Development study for the Dallol Maouri - MER 1/Project, principally involving hydrogeological surveys;

- 1970/72/76 - UNDP/FA0) - Pilot agricultural development project in theDallol Maouri. At fLrst oriented toward irrigated cultivation in thesouth, the project was subsequently widened to include rainfed cropsin the north (three 'Locations in all, at considerable distances fromone another, in the north and south, together with the Bengou Experi-mental Center, which was created to determine the most effective methodsof developing the southern marshlands);

- 1971 - rural developmient project for the Department of Dosso; (prepara-tory document from CCD); 2/

- 1972 - aerial survey (1/20,000) followed by photo-interpretation, aspart of the first phase of the project;

- 1972/73 - agricultural sample survey - MER - Division of Statistics.

2. The Department of Dosso (31,000 km2; 503,000 inhabitants; 5arrondissements) is a vast tableland of dune soils broken by dallols (dryvalleys), of which the largest is the Dallol Maouri, stretching between the400 mm isohyet in the north and the 850-900 mm isohyet in the south. Dosso'sproductive resources consist of some 63,000 farms growing the following cropson a total area of 573,000 ha:

millet; sorghum 482,000 ha

groundnuts 42,000 ha

cowpeas-niebe (monoculture) 15,000 ha

cotton (Gaya) 375 ha

1/ Ministere de l'Economie Rurale.

2/ Commissariat General au Developpement.

ANNEX VIIIPage 2

The average farm comprises 7.9 individuals (3 of whom are actively engagedin farming) and cultivates 9.1 ha as follows:

Cereals 7.6 ha

groundnuts 0.7 ha

miscellaneous 0.8 ha

3. An analysis of the studies made shows that, as in most of Nigertsother agricultural regions, the Dosso area is characterized by:

- a shortage of food supplies as a result of population growth and fallingyields;

- an expansion of cultivated area associated with an exhaustion of soils;

- a steady fall in the production of groundnuts;

- a weak organization of extension services.

4. For these reasons the project proposes, as in the case of theDepartment of Zinder, to initiate the following corrective measures:

- intensification of food crop production;

- intensification together with limited area expansion of cash crops;

- regeneration of exhausted soils;

- introduction of mixed farming, primarily with a view to maintaining soilfertility and developing traditional livestock fattening;

- planting of trees for firewood;

- organization of farmers and training of local supervisory personnel.

For the purposes of the project the Departmeut is to be divided into 30 basicaction and program zones (ZEAPs = Zones elementaires d'action et de program-mation). The ZEAP would represent the potential sphere of activity of amultidisciplinary team providing basic technical supervisory services. Itwould foreshadow the future cooperative structure. The ZEAP should be anatural homogeneous micro-region of 10,000 to 20,000 inhabitants, having avillage center with either a traditional or a modern market as its focalpoint. The division of the region into ZEAPs should also respect administra-tive or traditional boundaries. The ZEAP would therefore in effect corres-pond to the area of responsibility of a future ALC. The method of operationwould be the same as that practiced in the Zinder project, i.e. integratedactivities with UNCC management and responsibility.

ANNEX VIIIPage 3

5. A first stage covering six years and 30 ZEAPs was started withFAC financing in 1972. It is divided into two phases:

- an initial experimental phase extending over two crop years (1973 and1974) encompassing 14 ZEAPs;

- a second phase of expansion and formation of the remaining ZEAPs.

The first phase comprises:

(a) Studies aimed at obtaining a better understanding of socio-economic con-ditions in the Department. The basic data will be derived from a study ofthe aerial photographs (1/20,000) taken in September 1972, supplemented bysurveys;

(b) The training of a farming elite;

(c) Various measures to raise productivity:

- a general campaign (promoting non-sophisticated methods) to improve pro-duction of food crops;

- specific measures, more intensive in character: development of the cow-pea (niebe) in monoculture in the north; introduction of improved ground-

nut varieties; development of cotton in the south; experiments in animalhusbandry (Maradi-Sokoto goats, poultry-raising, cattle-fattening).

The total FAC grant amounts to CFAF 428 million, of which CFAF 145 millionfor the first phase (CFAF $0 million for the aerial survey and photo-

interpretation).

6. The southern region (Gaya) appears to be particularly attractivedue to its higher rainfall (700-850 mm) and the availability of abundant andreadily exploitable groundwater said to provide a total discharge of 5 m3/sec,which would warrant unit discharge rates of more than 50 I/sec. It wouldtherefore be sufficient to irrigate 15,000 to 20,000 ha and would also permit

the reclamation of sekveral thousand hectares through marsh drainage. Manyproblems still remain, such as the questions of water quality and soil perme-ability, price of energy etc.

ANNEX IXPage 1

FEEDLOT FATTENING USING IRRIGATED FODDER CROPS:THE TIAGUIRIRE PROJECT

1. As a result of the experiments and full-scale trials conducted inrecent years at Kirkissoye, and of the slow, late, but nevertheless real,upward trend of meat prices, intensive cattle fattening based on foragegrown under irrigation, without the use of supplementary feed, appears to beeconomically feasible. The Tiaguirire project is in a way the "practicalapplication" of the methods developed. The Tiaguirire depression is situated40 km downstream from Niamey; it is a long, narrow strip a few hundred meterswide of which an area of 300 hectares can easily be reclaimed; it is at pre-sent used as pasture when the water level of the river is at its lowest.

2. Plant production would take the form of an irrigated crop of barn-yard millet (Echinochloa stagnia), renewed by transplanting every 4 years andproducing 150 to 180 tons of green fodder or 25 to 30 tons of dry matter perhectare. The water requirements of the plant are 15,400 m3 per hectare, or(assuming a 65% efficiency) 23,600 m3 from the pumping station. If 5,600 m3rain water are deducted, a total of 18,000 m3 per hectare needs to be pumpedannually. In short, the annual cost of the crop is as follows:

CFAF/ha

- operations (plowing, harrowing, manurespreading) 10 tractor hours x CFAF 750(excluding labor) 7,500

- fertilizer 18,000

- irrigation 18,000 m3 x CFAF 2 36,000

- transplanting, 20 days x CFAF 200 x 1/4 1,00062,500

3. Animal production is planned on the basis of the following con-sumption figures established for a daily weight gain (without supplementaryfeed) of 600 g and for varying fattening periods:

ANNEX IXPage 2

Fattening period

85 days 165 days 250 days

Live weight of lean animals on entry (kg) 300 250 200

Average daily consumption of dry matter (kg) 6.6 6.3 6.0

Total consumption of dry matter per animal(kg) 620 1,150 1,650

Number of animals fattened per hectareduring the year:

Yield = 25 t/ha dry matter 40 21 15

Yield = 30 t/ha dry matter 48 26 18

Live weight of fat animals (kg) 350 350 350

Slaughtering weight ratio 53% 53% 53%

Carcass weight 185 185 185

Requirements to feed and care for the animals would be:

- for every 60 head, 1 laborer (CFAF 6,000/month) to cut the fodder;

- for every 60 head, 1 laborer to collect the fodder and transport itto the feedlots with an animal drawn cart;

- for every 30 head, 1 herdsman (CFAF 6,000/month) to feed, water,care for, and clean the animals.

4. The irrigated part of the project would consist solely of an embank-ment along the river; pumping station (propeller pumps) with an output of2 liters/s/ha, an irrigation and drainage network (0.5 to 1 ha checks, roughlyleveled) and 2 sets of mobiLe motor-driven drainage pumps (1 liter/s/ha).For 300 hectares, the cost of these works, on the basis of CFAF 700,000/ha,is estimated at CFAF 210 miLlion.

5. The animals will be kept in feedlots, in batches of 10 (100 m2 offenced area, of which 10 m2 under cover) arranged in feedlot units of 100to 200 head. The cost per animal of these buildings amounts to CFAF 27,000if they are of the modern type (metal frame + corrugated iron roof, with use-ful life of 15 years) or CFAF 9,000 if they are of the traditional type (palmframe and thatch, with a useful life of 5 years). The annual depreciationcharge per head of cattle is CFAF 1,800 in both cases.

ANNEX IXPage 3

6. The total investment, for a first phase of 150 hectares, is esti-mated as follows:

In thousands of CFAF

Irrigated agriculture project + access road 135,000

- Livestock

Stockraising equipment:

- fancing 1,200

- administrative buildings 18,000

- animal quarters (traditional) 15,300

- water supply 6,500

- technical facilities (weighing scales,vaccination chute, dip) 3,500

- agricultural equipment 9,500

- service vehicle 1,200

- shed (storage, garage) 6,000

- miscellaneous, contingencies: 5% 3,100

64,300 64,300Total 199,300

7. The intention is to buy lean cattle at CFAF 65/kg live-weight foran animal of 200 to 250 kg, and CFAF 70/kg for one of 300 kg. This priceis CFAF 5/kg higher than the highest quotations prevailing on the Ayoroumarket. The expected selling price is CFAF 85/kg live weight, delivered atthe Niamey slaughterhouse; the gross proceeds of the sale of a 350 kganimal will therefore be CFAF 29,750. These prices are lower than the(apparently more realistic) prices adopted by SEDES in the project for themodernization of the pastoral zone: young animals (140 kg) entering thebackgrounding ranch, CFAF 80/kg live-weight, and animals leaving the ranch(that is, on being sold to the feedlot), CFAF 100/kg live-weight.

8. The study of the project (definite area, final engineering, typeof operation - with hired labor or settlers, agency in charge of the project)is not sufficiently advanced to allow a tentative operating account to beestablished and an economic evaluation to be made. However, Germany (FederalRepublic) has already made a commitment to finance this project.

ANNEX XPage 1

IRRIGATION DEVIELOPMENT IN THE RIVER NIGER DEPRESSIONS

1. The development of the depressions along the river has been in pro-gress for about fifteen years, with varying degrees of success. By 1973, almost2,500 ha had been reclaimed under about twenty projects. A number of conclusionscan be drawn from this rather extensive experience. 1/

2. The general water conditions are summarized in the attached diagramwhich shows the time-lag between the rainy season (June-October) and the riverwater level (lowest level in July, highest level in February).

Accordingly there are two rice-growing seasons:

- rainy-season crop (June 10 - November 10);

- dry-season crop (December 10 - May 10).

3. Because of their geomorphological situation in the main river bed,the depressions are, as a rule, small (average = 300 ha), elongated, and some-times have a difficult microrelief. The basis of reclamation is embanking, whichprotects the rice fields against excess flood water and rice-eating fish, andpermits gravity irrigation.

Starting from this basic infrastructure, improvements can be added:

- to the irrigation area itself, in order to betterregulate the water layer on the rice fields: contourlevees, or leveled lots;

- to water control: addition of pumping equipment, whichmakes it possible to compensate for the lack of rainin the rainy season and of flood water in the dry season.

4. In Niger, the following typology has been adopted:

Type A - Natural flooding

Al - Tradiitional rice-growing: naturally flooded areas,subject to the vagaries of rainfall and flood,

A2 - Ditto., but with a floodable dike provided witha fish screen (small depressions).

1/ This note is primarily based on information supplied by the Gen:Le Rural(GR - Rural Engineerintg Service) and UNCC.

ANNEX 'CPage 2

Type B - Uncontrolled flooding

B1 - Nionfloodable dike provided with intake and outletstructures. Water layer: 0-1.70 m;

B2 - Uncontrolled flooding on terraces: Ditto, butwith internal layout in terraces with levees0.60 m to 0.80 m high, limiting the water layeron each terrace to 0.20 - 0.70 m. Irrigationand drainage canals link the terraces to theintake and outlet works.

Type C - Controlled flooding

Cl - Nonfloodable dike and intake and outlet works,supplemented by auxiliary pumping equipment;

C2 - Controlled flooding on terraces: Ditto, butwith internal layout in terraces limiting thewater layer to 0.20 - 0.50 m.

Type D - Artificial flooding

Dl - Nonfloodable dike with structures, auxiliarypumping equipment, internal layout in leveled plotslimiting the water layer 0.10 - 0.20 m. Completeirrigation and drainage network;

D2 - Ditto, but the irrigation canals are replacedby low-pressure pipes.

Each type of arrangement can be converted into a more sophisti-cated one.

5. Very general equipment standards have been established by Genie Rural.The standards used in the Niamey region are set forth below. They would haveto be adjusted for the Tillabery region (upstream, further north), or for theGaya region (downstream, further south).

(a) Since at Niamey, evaporation varies from 2.2 to 8.5 mma day, and infiltration is estimated at 0.5 mm/day, waterrequirements have been evaluated as follows for the leveledplots (type D), in which there are no excess layers of waterdue to irregularities of relief.

ANNEX XPage 3

Rainy-season rice:

June 10/July 5 (filling 6 mm/day + maintenance) .... .... 285 mmJuly 5/September 30 (sufficient rainfall - reserve) .... 50 mmOctober 1 - 31 (maintenance) ...... ..................... 155 mmNovember 1-10 (waintenance) ............................ 62 mmWater requirements of the irrigation unit . ............. .552 mmWater requirements at the pumping station 552 = 690 nun

0.8 3= 6,900 m /Iha

Dry-season rice:

December 10 - June 4 (filling 6 mm/day + maintenance) .. 308 mmJune 5 - June 31 (maintenance) ..... .................... 186 mmFebruary 1 - August 30 (maintenance) ..... .............. 773 mmMay 1 - 10 (maintenance) ............................... 78 nmmWater requirements of the irrigation unit space ...... 1,345 mmWater requirements at the pumping station 1,345 = 1,681 mm

0.8 3= 16,800 m /ha

These total requirements of 6,900 + 16,800 = 23,700 m3 /ha are amaximum, because:

- in theory, rainy-season irrigation is unnecessary (-500 m /ha);

- with transpLanting, the period of vegetative growth ofthe D 52-37 variety (5 months in the rainy season, a littlelonger in the dry season) must be reduced by the length ofstay (25 days) in the nursery (approximately: -1,500 m3/hax 2); on the other hand, the nursery beds must be irrigated,but they colter only 3 - 4 ares;

- for dry harvesting, irrigation can be suspended threeweeks before the rice is cut in order to allow theplots to dry out by evaporation (approximately: -1,500m3/ha x 2);

- varieties with a shorter growing cycle (type IR, or nybridsobtained frcm IR) would make it possible to shorten theperiod of vegetative growth by about twenty days 1/ (approx-imately 1,200 m3/ha + 1,750 m /ha = approximately: -3,000m3/ha).

/ Unfortunately the IR varieties are just as sensitive to cold as theD 52-37. Ideally, the D 52-37 should be adopted in the dry season andIR in the rainy season. But there would be a danger of their being mixed.

ANNEX XPage 4

(b) The discharge of the pumps is determined by the most unfavorablesituation possible which occurs in June when the water level ofthe river is exceptionally low and iz 58 re is no rain. Waterrequirements from June 10 to 30 are = 2,950 m3/ha, orfifteen hours of pumping a day (2 x 8 hurs less 1 hour break)or a continuous discharge of:

20 1 = 2.8 liters/s/ha.20 15 X3.6

The exceptionally minimum water level (1 year out of 5)corresponds to the reading + 0.90 on the Niamey gauge.

Maximum dynamic head:

Delivery head 5.40 - 0.90 = 4.50Lost head 1.50

6.00 mMotor power 2.8 x 6 = 0.45 hp

75 x 0.5

Installed power 0.45 x 1.3 = 0.60 hp/ha

(c) The dimensions of the canals are also determined by conditionsin the least favorable month which in this case is December,since evaporation is then greater than in June. But sincethe river is at its highest level at that time, the deliveryhead is reduced by 3 m and the 2.8 liters/s pump will givemore than 4 liters/s; this month therefore does not limitthe choice Sf1g5mps. Water requirements between December 10and 31 are _ = 3,200 m3/ha, o 28ohours if pumping a day,giving a con°inuous discharge of x .28 liter/s/ha.

21 x15 x 3.6

Thus, the canals are dimensioned like the pumps.

6. The cost of the irrigation works may be estimated from an analysisof two recent projects:

Area Typ Year

Karma 150 ha C2 1972Saga (Chinese mission) 300 ha Dl 1971/73

ANNEX X

Page 5

KARMA (C2)

Works Method of execution Total % Cost/ha

(CFAF (CFAF tlhousand)million)

Embanking Contractor (SNGTN) /1 31.1 37 207.0

Pumping equipment Contractor 11.0 13 73.3

Internal layout Force-account (GR) 29.6 35 197.3

Border levee 12.4 15 82.6

84.1 100 560.2

/1 Societe Nationale des Grands Travau>: du Ni-er (mixed enterprise).

KARMA - Detail of force-account works

Breakdown x

Wages 27

Fuel, lubricants 25

Maintenance, repair of vehicles and equipment 20

Construction site tools 5

Equipment (gates, pipes, culverts) 5

Cement works (structures and canal lining) 18100

It is to be noted that this list includes no provision for the replacement of

earth-moving equipment. Experience shows that this item represents about 30%

of equipment costs. The cost per hectare would therefore have to be increased

by (197.3 + 82.6) x 25 f+Z° x (1 - 1) = CFAF 55,000.- ~~100 0.7

On the other hand, when taxes are excluded, the cost of contract works should

be reduced by approximately 25% (registration of contract 5%, turnover tax

13%, customs duties), or CF,AF 50,000/ha.

In short, the cost of the Karma project net of taxes would come to CFAF

565,000/ha.

ANNEX XPage 6

SAGA (D1)

Works Methods of execution Cost/ha (in CFAF thousand)

Embanking Contractor 105Pumping station - building Chinese force-account 35

- motor-drivenpumps Contractor 45

Irrigation and drainagenetworks Force-account 65

Layout of irrigation unit(ditches, culverts,gates, leveling) Force-account 230

480Supervision, 15% 72

552

These charges likewise do not include the cost of replacement of earth-movingequipment, and it is not known whether they include taxes.

7. Obviously these costs data are only indicative. The cost of embank-ing alone, which is a large item, depends of course, on the shape of theirrigated area; it is considered that, if more than 300 m3 embankment per haprotected is required, the site is not suitable for development. In short,the following standards, which recapitulate those of the Genie Rural -- andwhich seem to have been generously estimated in the light of the two casesjust described may be taken into consideration in an economic evaluation:

Cost in CFAF 1,000/ha - 1973

GR Standards RecommendedStandards

Contractor Force-Account(1) (2)

Embanking (2/3 dike, 1/3 works) 450 - 325

Pumping equipment (1/2 motor pumps,1/2 civil works and miscellaneous) 150 - 110

Internal layout in terraces, andmain canals 300 200 215

Leveled lots and terminal network 200 150 150

(1) Costs include 25% for taxes.(2) Force account works are understood to be 30% cheaper than contract works.

Total development costs per hectare, on the basis of these standards, aresummarized in the following general table which shows the characteristicsof the various types of projects.

ALNNEX XPage 7

Types of projects(CFAF - 1973)

B1 C2 Dl

(a) (b) (a) (b) (a) (b)

Embanking 450,000) 325,000 450,000 325,000 450,000 325,000Layout in terraces,

and main canals - - 300,000 215,000 300,000 215,000Pumping - 150,000 110,000 150,000 110,000Leveled plots and

main water networks - - - - 200,000 150,000

Total 450,000 325,000 900,000 650,000 1100,000 _00,000

Note: (a) = contractor's cost 1973(b) = target costs 1974: only the dike to be constructed by the

contractor.

8. Pumping cost is largely dependent on the annual water flow, sincepumping time varies according to the ratio of gravity irrigation to pumpedirrigation and the influence of the characteristic: discharge times head ofthe propeller pump. In the average year, gravity irrigation in C2 or' Dl projectsis possible on some of the irrigation units for about two months. In a poorwater year at Niamey, the pumping equipment described above (2.8 liters/s/ha)has to operate 550 hours in the rainy season and 1,150 hours in the dry season,totalling 1,700 hours in all.

(a) Under these circumstances, and with the use of combustion engines,pumping cost is estimated as follows (in CFAF per ha):

ANNEX XPage 8

CFAF/annual crop season- Operation:

Diesel oil: 0.6 hph x 0.23 litersx CFAF 42.50 x 1,700 9,970

Lubricants 20% 1,99011,960

Maintenance:Motor pump 60,000 x 0.01 x 1,700 hrs 10,200Machine maintenance section

(according to UNCC) 6,700Pumpman - wages 2,500 19,400

Depreciation:Diesel engine 35,000 x 1,700 hrs 8,750

7,000 hrsPump 17,500 x 1,700 hrs 4,375 13,125

12,000 hrs

Wear and tear (4% per annum) 2,500

Total 46,985

The cost price per m3 therefore comes to approximately 46,985 CFAF 2.0023,700 CF 20

(b) However, certain irrigation units near Niamey are (or will be)equipped with sets of electrically operated pumps and will beaccorded a preferential rate (CFAF 13/kWh in 1973). Sinceelectricity will be brought to Niamey from Nigeria (from theKandji dam - works to be completed in January 1976) it is -planned to electrify the Niamey-Tillabery section, and evenbeyond (Namarigoungou).

The changeover from diesel to electric power, if the latteris costed at CFAF 25/kWh (cost of electricity supplied by anindependent generating unit 1/) will probably result in asubstantial reduction in pumping costs, which would become:

Before the rise in prices due to the energie crisis that began inNovember 1973.

ANNEX XPage 9

CFAF/annual crop seasornOperationElectric energy (efficiency

of electric motor = 0.85) 12,5100.40 hph x 0.736 x 1,700 hrsx CFAF 25 2,000

Lubricants 14,510

MaintenanceElectric pump 3,000Mlachine maintenance section 6,700Punpman - wages 2,500 12,200

Amortization (electric pump 8 years) 4,000

Wear and tear 1,200

Total 31,910

Cost price per m of water 31,910 CFAF 13423,700 CF 13

9. Yields per hectare depend upon the degree of sophistication of theproject, reflected, on the one hand, in the irregularity of the water layerand of the irrigated surface with traditional or natural flooding (types A orB); and, on the other hand, in the relative regularity of the water layer inthe paddy field with controlled or artificial flooding (types C or D).

However, yields have apparently been measured only at Karma (1973),where they were as follows:

rainy season 4.5 t/hadry season 4.0 t/ha

8.5 t/ha

10. The organization of the rice-growing areas is based on the provisionsof Law No. 60-28 of May 25, 1960, which prescribes the methods of reclamationand management to be used in irrigated agriculture projects executed by theGovernment.

(a) A prior land survey makes it possible to regulate theallocation of the plots after reclamation, in the lightof the following principles:

- priority instailation of the holders of customaryrights;

- installation of0 owner-farmer families;

- allocation of t:he plots according to the work capacityof the family, on the basis of ten acres per work unit(standard established in order to ensure self-sufficiencyand to provide a minimum income).

ANNEX XPage 10

(b) The management of the project is entrusted to an agency (UNCC)under an agreement which authorizes it to collect management("redevance d'exploitation") and to receive a subsidy repre-senting the expenses incurred by the Government.

The fee to be paid by the allottees must cover the followingexpenses:

- general maintenance of large structures;

- operation, repair, maintenance, amortization of pumpingequipment;

- expenses of the management agency;

- contribution to the solidarity fund, the purpose of whichis to cover bad debts, exemptions, etc.

Through the subsidy, the Government carries the cost of:

- the amortization of the infrastructure and of the civilworks;

- the cost (wages and operation) of supervision; the de-gressive subsidy, which formerly covered the part of thefee not borne by the farmers during the early years, wasabolished in 1971.

(c) In turn, the managing agency enters into a management contractwith each farmer, which completes the internal organization ofthe project. Under this contract, UNCC supplies not only thewater and supervision, but also the necessary means of produc-tion (plowing, nurseries, fertilizer), usually on credit ata low interest rate (4-5%).

(d) The participating farmers are initially organized in afarmers council, which is intended to become a GMP, 1/the basic grouping of the Niger cooperative system.

In each arrondissement, a land development commission solves land allocationproblems, approves annual cropping plans, and settles disputes.

11. The operating account of the project, from the standpoint of themanaging agency (UNCC), is established for each rice-growing season:

rainy season May 1 - October 30dry season November 1 - April 30

1/ Groupement Mutuel de Producteurs.

ANNEX XPage 11

As an illustration, estimated expenses for two crop seasons, in an averagewater year, are as follows:

CFAF/ha

Normal maintenance 3,000Provision for maintenance of large

structures 3 5,000Pumping (approximately 26,000 m

at CFAF 2'1 52,000Management expenses (administra-

tion and management, centralworkshop) 3,0001/

Gross fee 63,000

Solidarity iund, 10% ' 6,300

Total Expenses 69,300

If the actual fee is fixed at CFAF 60,000 (or CFAF 30,000 per crop season),the Government subsidy will. make up the difference, or CFAF 9,300.

12. The farmer's account is as follows (for Karma):

Expenses CFAF/ha

Management fee 60,000Cultivation expenses (to be repaid

to UNCC)For 1 crop season: plowing 3,000

fertilizer 2/ 3,500nursery 4,000

10,500

For 2 crop seasorLs 21,000

Total 81,000

Income

The farmer's harvrest of 8 t/ha for two crop seasons represents grossreceipts of CFAF 172,000/ha at the official price for paddy of CFAF21.50/kg and CFAI' 200,000/ha at the actual market price of CFAF25/kg (1973). His net income of approximately CFAF 120,000/ha fixes

1/ As a matter of fact, the real management expenses should be increased byCFAF 7,000/ha to fully account for expenses of UNCC as the managing agency.In other words, they should be approximately CFAF 10,000/ha.

2/ Urea, which received a 35% subsidy.

ANNEX XPage 12

the value of his work day (120 days for the first crop season,

140 days for the second) at 120,000 CFAF 460 or nearly twice

the SHIIG (legal minimum wage). 2 6 ctually, labor productivity could

be increased by the use of small rice cultivation implements (rotary

lhoe, portable thresher, winnower, husker, float), used communally

within the GMP.

13. For a project of the Karma type, the total operating cost, regardless

of the economic agent incurring any particular element of it, is therefore as

follows:

CFAF/ha

Gross fee 69,300plus additional UNCC management expenses

(approximately) 7,000

plus cultivation expenses(two crop seasons) 21,000

plus subsidy for fertilizer

(approximately) 3,700101,000

The direct or indirect Government subsidy, viz. (69,300 - 60,000) + 7,000 +

3,700 = CFAF 20,000 represents almost 20% of the total cost. If the farmer

had to pay all the operating expenses, his net receipt would be only around

CFAF 100,000 or CFAF 385 per work day, which is still high.

14. (a) In making an assessment of the type of project to be recommended

it must be borne in mind that, in view of the decisive weight of the cost of

embanking and interior layout, and of the fact that these two factors vary

appreciably from site to site (shape, relief) there is no standard layout,

but an optimum layout for each individual site. However, the projects executed

show that it is too risky to finance an interior layout in terraces with uncon-

trolled flooding (B2); that pumping is not well used unless it is combined with

this type of refinement (Cl); and that the replacement of the main canals by

pipes rules out gravity irrigation (D2). 1/ Types B2, Cl, and D2 are therefore

virtually ruled out from the start. It would be advisable, moreover, to try

to standardize costs, expenses, and yields for each type of project.

(b) Furthermore, for each type of project, the selection criteria,

i.e. the benefits and costs, must be defined for each of the "operators" con-

cerned: the Government, the managing agency (e.g. UNCC) and the farmer. As

the representative of the national conmunity, the Government bears the cost

of the investment, endeavors to create rural employment, to ensure food supplies

for the country and to develop the land and water resources of each region.

1/ Type D2 - low-pressure pipes (Californian system) - may be justified in

certain special cases in which the microrelief is very pronounced or

the reclaimable areas are dispersed in 'clusters" of 20 to 30 ares.

ANNEX XPage 13

In view of these objectives, it will be guided in the choice of each projectunder the irrigated agriculture program by the internal economic rate of returnwhich determines the efficient use of scarce factors of production, in particu-lar capital and foreign exchange. In the case of Niger, it is difficult to saywhat the appropriate level of this rate is, but at first sight it would appeartnat a prcject which does not yield a rate of at least 10% is suspect, i.e.constitutes a serious risk of wastage of resources. A few preliminary calcula-tions slhow that type C2 or type Dl projects should, with paddy valued at thenew official price of CFAF 30/kg, reach or exceed this level. It is to benoted that this price is not necessarily a shadow price which would take intoaccount the price of a kilo of imported grain in a famine year, either underemergency conditions (CFAF 100/kg in 1972-73) or "normal" conditions (estimatedat CFAF 40-45/kg at present). It is further to be noted that the price ofCFAF 25/kg, which UNCC used in its calculations and which was higher than theofficial price of CFAF 21.50/kg, was plainly justified in the case of thedomestic market by the addition of a kind of insurance premium amounting to afew CFA francs per kilo equivalent to the cost of building up stocks whichwould guarantee the supply of this kilo of paddy in a famine year. 1/ Further-more this price was already, recorded and frequently exceeded on the market.

The standpoint of' the managing agency is not necessarily the sameas that of the Government. Its criterion is financial rather than economic,the essential difference being that the bulk of the operating expenses areborne by the farmer and nol: by UNCC, which receives, as has been noted, certainGovernment subsidies. A satisfactory financial rate of return appears, accord-ing to the calculations of UNCC itself, to have been achieved for projects ofthe Karma type (C2).

Finally, the farmer is concerned with the remuneration of ilis labor,the more so because in the projects the beneficiaries usually put in work addi-tional to that required by their traditional farm. The remuneration of thefarmer is also affected by possible subsidies and taxes. The standpoint ofthe farmer may be based on the profit per work day or the total annual profit:the difference is important because the number of work days depends on thetype of project and not on the choice of the farmer. Thus under present con-ditions, the net daily income is higher in a B1 project, but this type ofproject requires (or provides) only 90 days of work per hectare; the netannual income is clearly higher in a C2 or Dl project, which require 220 and210 days of work, but the work day is less well paid, in other words the margi-nal income is less. The following table summarizes typical situations. Clearly,the attitude the farmers concerned will adopt and whether or not they are inter-ested in maximizing their daily income or their annual income must be known foreach site to be developed.

1/ The investment in stocks is actually about CFAF 30 - 40/kg. The annualcost may be estimated (amortization, interest, maintenance) at CFAF 3 -4/kg.

ANNEX XPage 14

Farmer's Remuneration

Type of project B1 C2 Dl

Price of paddy(CFAF/kg) 21.5 25.0 21.5 25.0 21.5 25.0

Number of work days/ha 90 220 210Annual income per ha

(rounded figures) 43,000 54,500 78,500 106,500 102,000 133,500Income per day per ha 478 606 357 485 636

(c) It would appear that there is a great difference in productivity fora small difference in cost between types B1 and C2 (pumping representing only1.3 of the cost of the dikes); and a great difference in cost (leveling cost-ing almost twice as much as terracing) for a small difference in productivitybetween types C2 and Dl. These differences are shown in the rate of return,which is highest in the case of type Dl on all assumptions but ruled outtype B1 in almost every case. The investment per job in rice cultivationis very similar in the three cases, but in view of the high demand and limitedsupply, types C2 and Dl use half as much area per job as type Bl. Also, theadditional production from the B1 project is problematical, for it varies con-siderably, both in the yield and in the area harvested, according to rainfalland flood conditions on which it is completely dependent. Uncontrolled flooding(B1) is therefore ruled out and this justifies the redevelopment, at presentbeing undertaken by Genie Rural, of the depressions reclaimed earlier underthis type of project. Purely economic criteria do not allow to clearly differ-entiate between C2 and Dl projects, the more so because the special character-istics of the site may modify the basic standards. Furthermore, non-economicconsiderations may be involved. The scraping of the soil by leveling may turnout to be detrimental and thus lead to recommend C2 rather than Dl. In addi-tion, C2, which is less sophisticated than Dl, offers possibilities of "humaninvestment" (non paid labor) and better training in water management than Dl.C2 will therefore often recommend itself at least during a first phase lastinga few years in which yields are limited more by the skill of the farmer thanthe degree of sophistication of the project.

15. Aside from the choice of the type of project, other as yet unresolvedproblems handicap the operation of the projects:

(a) Customary rights are still an obstacle to the enforcementof the Land Law and to an allocation of the plots consistentwith efficient operation, based on the family work capacityof the rural population near the site;

(b) The Djerma population is only slowly becoming interested inworking in the projects and does not willingly accept thecollective constraints which such cultivation necessarilyrequires. This is a matterof training, which should beintensified within the GMPs and the cooperatives;

ANNEX XPage 15

(c) The recovery of fees is time-consuming, difficult, andcostly since it entails pursuing the debtors for monthsin the local markets where they gradually sell theirground rice and thus earn money. It may be asked whether,in view of the fact that rice cultivation is necessarilycollective and directed in fact by UNCC, the managingagency (choice of varieties, cultural methods, transplant-ing dates; plowing, nurseries; water management), produc-tion cooperatives, at least in the initial phase, would notbe more suitable than independent rice-growers grouped intoservice cooperatives. Even if such an arrangement retainedthe individual plots within the rice fields, at least itwould make it possible (with the introduction of threshingwith the Japanese thresher) to recover the fee on the spot,after the harvest, and in the form of paddy. This paddywould enable UNCG. to make up the shortfall in the supplyof the Tillabery rice mill.

16. Finally, from the standpoint of the efficient development of thewater and land resources of the entire river valley, i.e. about 30,000 haof depressions and 20,000 ha of terraces, with the minimum annual flow fallingbelow 100 m3/s for 50 days each year in the period June - August, and givinga discharge (90% frequency) of 21-26 m3/s,1/ it would appear that, in thepresent state of the river., both in Niger and upstream in Mali, water is likelyto become a limiting factor. Water requirements must be evaluated in terms ofstream-flow and not in volume. It can be very roughly estimated at 51 m3/s inthe critical period, that :is to say when the low stream-flow coincides with arainless June. Under these exceptional circumstances, water would be pumpednight and day:

m3/s

Depressions - rice fields - filling 6+5.3= 11.3 x 1 = 14.1 mm/day

0.8141 m x 23,000 ha/86,400 38.0

- fodder crops for fattening of120,000 head of cattle at a 3rate of 17 head/ha 6 = 90 m /ha

0.7x 7,000 ha/86,400 7.3

Terraces - sugar cane 2,000 ha x 1.2 liters/s 2.4

- other: supplemental or emergencyirrigation on the sown areas, whichrepresent only part of the totalsurface. Average 500 m3/hax 18,000 ha/86,400 x 30 3.5

51.2 m /s

1/ The absolute minimum stream flow ever recorded was 3 m'3/s in June 1973.

ANNEX XPage 16

A reduction in these requirements could be obtained by a delay of

one month (transplanting in July instead of June) in the schedule for the rainy

season rice so as to make better use of the rainfall at the time when the water

level has not yet risen.

Nevertheless, in order to make use of all the land, within the frame-

work of an efficient agricultural program, it would be necessary to "step up"

the low stream-flow, either by a retaining dam upstream (Kandadji project) or

by reducing losses (65% of the inflow) in the Mali "inland delta".

A very important threshold to be considered is therefore that at

which a dam will become necessary. If it is intended to satisfy irrigation

requirements with 90% security, this threshold is determined by the low

stream-flow which can be counted on 9 years out of 10, viz. approximately 25

m3/s. Such a stream-flow is compatible with the following irrigation program,

which is proposed in the body of the report:

3Rice fields 12,500 ha (or 10,000 additional ha) requiring 20.0 m /s

Sugar cane 2,000 ha 2.4Fodder crops 3,000 (fattening of 50,000 head of cattle) 3.12 "

17. In conclusion, it is believed that the efficient development of the

Niger river valley can only be contemplated within the regional framework of

the development of the entire basin. The threshold just determined, namely

15,000 additional hectares, that can be reclaimed and exploited without regula-

tion of river flow, gives an idea of the time available for making studies and

holding consultations, in particular with the other riparian States. French

aid (FAC) has been requested to send a hydrologist in 1974 to go into further

details of this scheduling.

RIVER NIGER DEPRESSIONS AND TERRACES - AGRO-HYDRO-CLIMATIC CHART

Water levelFlood of River Niger at Niamey 200

high level flood \1954-55 1

2000 1t_- 60

low level flood1949-50

1000 120 SSS e

1~~OC OO 000 80

Climate /

~-~ Normal rains 500 _/

Niamey

0

Month Jul. Aug. Sep Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan Feb Mar, Apr. |May |un.

Average evaporation 3.4 2.2 2.6 4.5 5.7 5. 6 4 7 7 8.5 8 3 7.3 5 3Piche, Niamey mm/dav 3.4 2 2 4

Crop schedule

Transplanting

D52/37 rice Rainy Season . -_ - - - - t |Transplanting

Dry season _ - - - - S _ E -

Harvest

Tomatoes -. -...... E...... ... 13 1 -

Onions ...................- _. _|- -

Cowpeas ....... ..... ] 311 1…ll 1…

Planting Planting

Sugar cane .. .... -1 _ _ _ i

_ _ = _ = _ __ __ _ _|ldrN B Z I. I. __| W r Ban I 93

World Bank-8933

AN_NEX XI

Page 1

LIST OF PROJECIS MAKING UP THE EMERGENCY PROGRAM (1973)

IBRD/IDA

The following projects will be charged against a credit of $2 mil-lion (about CFAF 470 million);

CFAF million

- village storehouses in critical areas to be usedby OPVN for buffer or security stockpiling; 130

- training of UNCC extension agents (33) intendedmainly for the productivity schemes; 18.4

- study of the Galmni irrigation project (agri-cultural compone-nt of the 260 ha onion growingand processing complex); 26.6

- protection and exploitation of gum-trees (2,000ha, 800,000 trees) to increase the collectionof gum and contr:ibute to soil conservation; 22.3

- anti-erosion measures in the upper Keita valley; 59.1

- centers for saving young cattle. 93.9

355.3

Federal Rxepublic of Germanyt_ _ _ _ ~~~~~.~r_ n

- centers for saving young cattle (it is not yetknown whether the young cattle will be boughtto be nourished in regrouping centers or onranches or whether the stockraisers will simplybe given a loan to enable them to keep theircattle). 300

European Development Fund (FED)

- dug wells and tubewells in the pastoral area,especially Agadez (CFAF 1 million per dugwell, CFAF 30 to 40 million per tubewell). 400

ANtTEX XIPage 2

US-AID

- storage facilities for OPVl (15jOOO t in 1973).

While these projects will help to some extent with the reconstitution of the

herd, they scarcely touch the longer-range problems such as rehabilitation of

pastures (especially by reseeding) or the extension of irrigated areas.

ANNEX XIIPage 1

LIST OF PRE-INVESTMENT STUDIES

1. The prospects presented in the report (Chapter VI) explain whichstudies should be started immediately. General or pre-investment studiesshould be distinguished from those related to already identified projects(feasibility studies, detailed engineering studies).

2. Without setting forth their terms of reference here the generalstudies that should be undertaken now can be listed as follows:

- Demographic study based on a sample survey to definethe present situiation, make forecasts and to serve asfoundation to population policy.

- Niger River Comaission - Indicative plan for the Nigerbasin. Potential for development. Development schemesencompassing, considering the needs of the riparian coun-tries, hydroelectric power generation, flood control,irrigation, and navigation.

- In conjunction with the preceding study, a Study of adevelopment scheme for the valley of the river in Niger.Potential - programming - organization (plan for an Officedu Fleuve).

- General study oi irrigation possibilities outside theriver valley.

- Study of export markets for cowpeas.

- Study of the size and structure of the cattle herd, in-tended to assist. the livestock projects program.

- Study of the possibilities of expanding "human investment"in Niger. Potential labor force. Jobs. Practical standardsof mobilization. Prospects.

- Agricultural research: as part of a regional program forthe Sahel, perfection of a hybrid rice suited to conditionsin the region, i.e. not sensitive to photoperiodism, nottoo sensitive to dry-season temperatures, responsive tofertilizers, with medium stem length.

3. The following are the most urgent of the project-related studies:

- Study of a buffer stock project, at both the national andlocal level. Programming phasing, technical standards,costs, management.

ANNEX XIIPage 2

Development of natural depressions, as part of the general

"tRiver"' study; feasibility studies for 700 ha per year

(study of the Namarigoungou site underway).

In conjunction with the UNDP (Dallol Maouri) and FACprojects, completion of the pilot phase of the Dossorural development project (it should go into operation in1976-78).

- Feasibility study on the livestock chain linking thepastoral area I (South Tamesna), the Ekrafane ranch, anda feedlot of 1,200 ha of fooder crops grown in irrigateddepressions (resumption and extension of the Tiaguirire

project).

- Resumption of the feasibility study of a sugar cane and

processing complex.

4. The cost of these studies has not been evaluated and has not been

included in the basic investment program given in the body of the report.

ANNEX XIIIPage 1

MARKETING INSTITUTIONS

1. For a long time the Government has controlled the marketing ofgroundnut and cotton exports. More recently, it decided to take part inthe marketing of locally consumed basic foodstuff, mainly cereals. Ground-nut producers sell to cooperatives or to approved buyers (stockpiling agencies)which in turn sell to the Societe Nigerienne de Commercialisation de l'Arachide(SONARA). SONARA exports the groundnuts or sells them to local oil imills.Cotton is also sold through the cooperative system to the Compagnie Francaisepour le Developpement des Fibres Textiles (CFDT), which gins the cotton andexports the fiber or sells it to the local textile plant, the SocieteNigerienne des Textiles (NITEX). A stabilization fund, Caisse de Stabilisa-tion des Prix des Produits du Niger (CSPPN), receives the financial surplusesresulting from SONARA's or CFDT's marketing operations and makes compensatorypayments to them in the event of marketing losses. As regards locally con-sumed food, whether produced locally or imported, Government interventiontakes place through the Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger (OPVN).

SONARA: Purposes, Finances and Organization

2. SONARA was set up in 1962 to market and export groundnuts. SONARA'spresent capital is CFAF 31)0 million, of which the Government holds 20 mil-lion, BDRN 1/ 62.5 million, CSPPN 119 million, 2/ the other 98.5 million beingin the hands of approved Niger or foreign buyers and a Government commercialenterprise. At present SONARA's Board of Directors consists of 9 members:3 representing the Govermnent, 1 CSPPN, 1 BDRN, 1 the Government commercialenterprise and 3 the approved buyers. The President and the Director Generalare appointed from among 1:he directors designated by the Government. TheBoard appoints a Deputy D:Lrector General on the recommendation of iLs Chair-man. The Government also designates a Government Commissioner who attendsmeetings of the Board and audits the accounts of SONARA., its loans, the con-clusion of contracts, the remuneration of its staff and, in general, super-vises SONARA's major activities. The general stockholders meeting appointstwo auditors.

3. SONARA, which hlzs the monopoly on the sale of groundnuts for exportand to the local oil mills, is not directly involved in primary marketing.When SONARA was set up,.primary marketing was handled by 22 commercial firms,most of them foreign. At present, primary marketing is handled by coopera-tives in about half the producing areas. In other regions, the foreign ap-proved buyers, with two or three exceptions, have been gradually replacedby Nigerien nationals. Apart from its purely commercial activities, SONARAalso takes part in the transportation and shelling of groundnuts.

1/ Banque de Development: de la Republique du Niger.

2/ CSPPN's share in the capital is CFAF 62.5 million, but in addition CSPPNprovisionally holds CFAF 56.5 million in shares formerly held by approved(mostly foreign) buyers.

ANNEX XIIIPage 2

Management and Staff

4. SONARA has a permanent staff of about 400, including 22 supervisorsand technicians (of whom 4 are expatriates), 25 foremen, 80 skilled workersand about 275 unskilled workers. About 80 persons work in the Niamey head-quarters, about 300 in the two main local agencies at Maradi and Zinder, anda few at Dosso. SONARA also has a sales office in Paris and representativeoffices in Kano and Lagos, Nigeria, which are responsible for arranging andsupervising the transportation of groundnuts through that country. In addi-tion, SONARA employs temporary workers for 3 to 5 months to shell groundnuts.Thus SONARA employed up to 1,100 temporary workers in 1972, but their numberdiminished in 1973 and probably will fall again in 1974 because of the dropin groundnut production. SONARA's management, which changed in 1968, isefficient.

SONARA's Finances

5. SONARA transfers marketing surpluses to CSPPN and receives compensa-tory payments from CSPPN in the event of losses. The financial surpluses andlosses from marketing are determined by deducting from SONARA's gross receiptsfrom the sale of groundnuts the theoretical costs of handling, transportationand operation. This system leaves SONARA a comfortable margin. Since itsestablishment, after paying the profit tax of 35% and commissions, SONARA hasnetted annual profits varying between CFAF 50 million and CFAF 300 million.After payment of a dividend of 6% to its stockholders, SONARA has transferredits profits to reserve accounts. SONARA's cash situation and overall financialposition are satisfactory.

SONARA's Present Activities and Prospects

6. SONARA was set up esseAtially to market groundnuts for export:between 1962/63 and 1970/71, 75% to 80% of the marketed production of ground-nuts was exported, the rest being sold to the local oil mills, except for asmall percentage (1% to 3%) sold for seed. Since groundnuts are exportedshelled, SONARA has undertaken the shelling, thus replacing the farmers, andhas set up 3 shelling plants with a total capacity of about 80,000 tons, whichcame into operation in 1964, 1965 and 1966, respectively.

7. This situation has been radically changed in recent years owing totwo factors:

(a) the drop in production resulting from the pro-longed drought;

(b) the increase in the capacity of the local oil mills,which rose from about 45,000 tons of unshelled groundnutsin 1967/68 to about 130,000 tons at present and will reach175,000 tons in 1974.

ANNEX XIIIPage 3

As a result, SONARA exported only about 40,000 tons of shelled groundnuts in1973, and in 1974 exports will be reduced to practically nothing -- some 3,000tons of edible groundnuts. SONARA has already closed down the two smallestshelling plants, which had a combined capacity of 35,000 tons of unshelledgroundnuts, and the third shelling plant is working very much below capacity.If groundnut production does not regain its 1966/67 level SONARA, whichhas a heavy organizational structure and a large staff, will no longer bejustified in its present activity and the problem of its reconversion willarise. In fact, this prob:Lem will arise even if production picks up, sincean increasing proportion oi the groundnuts is used by local oil mills andno longer exported.

Compagnie Francaise pour le Developpement des Fibres Textiles (CFDT)

Organization

8. CFDT was established in 1949 to provide specialized technical assist-ance to the French overseas territories and later to other regions for the devel-opment of textile fibers, particularly cotton. CFDT is a nonprofit enterprise(a mixed economy company)-with a capital of FF200,000, contributed mainly bythe French Government. Its Board is made up of representatives of variousFrench ministries and of French commercial and industrial enterprises, theCaisse Centrale de Cooperat:ion Economique (CCCE) and the Institut de Recherchesdu Coton et des Textiles Exotiques (IRCT). Its headquarters is in Paris andcomprises 4 main divisions: agriculture; industry and equipment; commerce; andfinance and accounting. There appear to be considerable advantages to central-ization in Paris: the quality of the services is undoubtedly greater thancould be achieved by each country on its own in view of their low individualproduction; similarly, CFDT can obtain more favorable prices for purchasesof equipment and capital goods by placing group orders for all the countries,and can obtain advantageous, insurance and freight rates; lastly, it managessales of cotton from its Paris office, which facilitates delivery of the productto the various buyers in the quantities and qualities desired and at the timerequired. CFDT operates in 14 countries of Africa south of the Sahara, 2countries in the Mediterranean region and 6 countries in Asia.

Activities

9. CFDT's activities in Niger consist of providing supervisory ser-vices for production, ginning and marketing of cotton. In activities linkedto production, CFDT wQrks under agreements different from those existing inmost other African countries: CFDT acts as a technical assistance agencyunder contract with UNCC, 1/ which is responsible for extension services forcotton and has its own extension staff. CFDT provides 5 expatriates for UNCC'sextension service (3 in the main cotton-growing area in the Department ofTahoua, 1 in the Department of Maradi and 1 in the Department of Dosso).

1/ Union Nigerienne de Cooperation et de Credit.

ANNEX XIIIPage 4

CFDT runs 3 ginneries at Madaoua, Maradi and Gaya, with a total capacity ofabout 18,000 tons. It buys the cotton from the producers or the coopera-tives and, after ginning, exports the cotton fiber or sells it to the localtextile plant NITEX 1/ in Niamey, which began operations in 1970. Most ofthe cottonseed is exported, except for seed required by the producers.

10. The cost of the 5 expatriate production specialists and part of thecost of the expatriate director responsible for operations in Niger is paidby France (FAC); this cost amounts to about CFAF 50 million a year.

CFDT's Finances

11. CFDT transfers marketing surpluses to CSPPN and receives compensatorypayments from CSPPN in the event of losses. The surpluses and the losses aredetermined by deducting from CFDT's gross receipts from sales of cotton thetheoretical costs of handling, ginning, transportation and operation. Becauseof the sharp fall in cotton production, the theoretical costs have become muchlower than the real costs and, in 1973/74, CFDT will no doubt incur losseson its operations in Niger.

Caisse de Stabilisation des Prix des Produits du Niger (CSPPN)

12. CSPPN was established in 1960. It is a State agency directed by aBoard of 10 members, viz. the Minister of Economic Affairs (Chairman), theMinister of Finance, the Minister of Rural Economy and the Minister of Devel-opment, 2 members from the National Assembly, the Chairmen of the Boards ofCNCA, UNCC, OPVN and SONARA, and the President of the Chamber of Commerce,Agriculture and Industry. The Director of Economic Affairs in the Ministryof Economic Affairs and Industry is responsible for the day-to-day managementof the CSPPN. The essential purpose of CSPPN is the stabilization of pricespaid to groundnut and cotton producers by making compensatory payments tothe marketing agencies or by receiving their financial surpluses from market-ing, since the prices to the producers are also fixed by Government decree.

CSPPN's Finances

13. CSPPN's financial resources are essentially the following:

(a) 15% of the proceeds of the export taxes on groundnuts,groundnut oil and cakes, and cotton;

"(b) SOINARA's and CFDT's marketing surpluses (see paras. 5 and 11)

(c) certain transfers made by the Government out of levies relatedto controlled imports and marketing of sugar.

1/ The shareholders of NITEX are Agache-Willot 70%; the Niger Government,BDRN and CSPPN 15%; and private textile merchants 15%.

AiNEX XIIIPage 5

CSPPN's resources have been used for:

(i) making comp)ensatory payments to SONARA and CFDT;

(ii) financing the Fonds d'Amelioration de la Productivite

Rurale (FWTR), which itself to some extent subsidizes

OPVN, the rice mill (Riz du Niger), SONIPRIM and a few

other agricultural development operations;

(iii) making transfers to the Government budget;

(iv) subscribing to the capital of various public agencies

and State enterprises (SONARA, Societe Nationale deCimenterie, BDRN, NITEX, Societe Nigerienne d'Electricite);

(v) making various loans;

(vi) participating in financing such items as public buildings.

CSPPN's liquidity position is not accurately known but can be estimated at

CFAF 2 to 4 billion at the end of 1973.

Marketing of Groundnuts

14. CSP'PN made a compensatory payment of CFAF 170 million to SONARA for

the 1967/68 groundnut season. In subsequent years, however, CSPPN has received

substantial surpluses from SONARA, as shown in the following table:

1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73

CFAF million 470 1,059 1,666 1,350 1,8CO*

* Preliminary estimates.

15. The surpluses realized by SONARA are considerably affected by thegrowing volume of groundnuts delivered to local oil mills, since the two main

oil mills have a 10-year agreement with the Government, whereby SONARA is

to supply them with groundnuts at a price equivalent to 54.5% of the export

price obtained by SONARA. The same price is applied to the groundnuts de-

livered to the third oil mill. On this basis, the marketing margin received

by CSPPN from SONARA in the 1972/73 crop year was about CFAF 29,900 per ton

for groundnuts exported, whereas it was only CFAF 7,000 for groundnuts de-

livered to the local oil mills. It is more than likely that the difference

between the margin on exports and the margin on sales to local mills will

be even greater in 1973/74. This difference between the two margins, however,

does not take into account the fact that Government participation in the oil

mills is to gradually increase to 30% and that it will therefore reveive a

corresponding percentage of the profits of the mills, or of the fact that one

of the mills is already paying 35% profits tax, whereas the other two under

ANNEX XIIIPage 6

an agreement with the Government will only pay this tax from 1982 and 1984,respectively.

Mfarketing of Cotton

16. Between 1962 and 1966, CSPPN paid CFDT compensatory payments ofabout CFAF 75 million, it paid another CFAF 65 million in 1968. In subsequentyears till 1972/73, CFDT turned over a surplus to CSPPN. As in the case ofgroundnuts, sales of cotton fiber to local industry considerably affect themarketing margins that may be received by CSPPN. The following table showsthe distribution of sales, in terms of volume, between exports and NITEX.

Cotton fiber(tons)

Year Export Sales to NITEX Total

1969/70 2,834 966 3,800

1970/71 2,918 550 3,468

1971/72 2,065 1,014 3,079

1972/73 853 1,000 1,853

1973/74* 0 1,000 1,000

* Preliminary estimate.

In the last four years, CFDT had to deliver the cotton fiber toNITEX at a price that would just cover its costs, whereas on exported cottonfiber CFDT was realizing large marketing margins which were transferred toCSPPN, as shown in the following table:

Surplus per ton Total surplusof cotton fiber for CSPPN

Year CFAF CFAFmillion

1969/70 13,056 37

1970/71 41,810 122

1971/72 48,426 100

1972/73* 117,233 100*

* Prelimary estimates.

AiNEX XIIIPage 7

Under the present agreements, and at present world prices (at endof 1973), CFDT would suffer a loss of about CFAF 21,000 per ton on the cottondelivered to the local pl.mt and could receive about CFAF 9,000 per ton ascompensatory payment from CSPPN (the difference representing a net loss forCFDT), while on exports CFDT would realize a net margin of CFAF 160,000to 180,000 per ton, which would be transferable to CSPPN.

Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger (OPVN)

17. In the marketing of food products, the main purpose of OPVN (whichwas established in 1970) has hitherto been the regulation of prices withineach crop-year. For millet and cowpeas, a decree passed at the beginning ofeach crop-year based on the recommendation of OPVN fixes the terms of opera-tion of the Office, the approved stockpiling agencies, and the cooperatives.The prices to be applied are left to the discretion of the Office, which setsthem in the light of economic conditions, but they cannot fall below a fixedfloor price (e.g. CFAF 12.50 per kg of millet in 1972). The products boughtlocally, plus imports, are distributed throughout the country, first: to theregions reported to have a shortage, generally to the administrative centersof the arrondissements, where they are supposed to be sold at official pricesfixed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Because of the food deficits inrecent years, the prices of millet on the large consumer markets of Niamey,Tahoua and Agadez have substantially increased.

18. Through a US-AID loan, OPVN was to receive in 1973 additional stor-age capacity of 15,000 tons, which it plans to raise to 27,000 tons in 1975.This equipment will enable it to better perform its stabilizing role and tobegin year-to-year security stockpiling. To achieve this goal, it will haveto move toward a wider-reaching association with the basic cooperativestructure. So far however, the Office's transactions have involved only4,000 to 5,000 tons of local products a year, and its main activity has beento sell or to distribute free of charge in the shortage areas the importedproducts supplied by external aid (14,000 tons in 1971/72 and over 80,000 tonsin 1972/73). It must also be the principal tool for forwarding and distri-buting the estimated 250,000 to 300,000 tons of food products to be importedin 1973/74; but the size of the task seems well beyond its present capacities;support might be sought, for example, from SONARA, which, owing to the fall-off in groundnut production, has the means, equipment and the organizationrequired.

19. OPVN also has a purchasing monopoly for paddy and ground rice.Prices were fixed at CFAF 21.50/kg and CFAF 35/kg, respectively, up to theend of 1973. In fact, the current price (end of 1973) of paddy on thetraditional markets is CFA1? 25/kg, and OPVN. is experiencing the greatestdifficulty in securing supplies for the rice-mill. This explains why theofficial price of paddy to the producer was raised to CFAF 30/kg beginningin 1974.

ANNEX XIVPage 1

PROJECTI ONS: PRODUCTION, EXPORTS, INVESTMEUIT

The projections are made only for the basic programs on the develop-

ment of which the future depends:

Cereals - Production and consumption

Groundnuts - Production and uses

Livestock - Production and offtake

Principal agricultural exports

Basic agricultural investments

The present note, briefly explains and justifies the assumptions

used in the preparation of the attached tables (following this Annex).

Table A - Cereal Production and Consumption

The table compares food requirements, calculated on the basis of

250 kg of cereals per capita per year, with the production of millet and sor-

ghum expected from the implementation of four productivity schemes ("integrated

rural development projects") and the production of paddy resulting from a

development program along the Niger River covering an additional 10,000 ha

during the period.

In the productivity schemes, where the principal investment con-

sists of the technical training of farmers, two phases can be distinguished:

an investment period of 5 years, followed by a 5-year maturation period, during

which technical progress continues with a smaller supervisory and extension

staff.

The projected growth of cereal production is based on the estimates

made for the ilaradi project:

Maradi Standards

Investment Maturationperiod Period

Duration 5 years 5 years

Gain in productivity ) Cereals 15% 15%

at end of period ) Groundnuts 33% 67%

Cost per farm(family of 7 to 9 persons) CFAF 48,000/yr. CFAF 5,600/yr.

A4NEX XIVPage 2

The productivity schemes would be limited as follows:

Zinder: The 3 arrondissements ("3M") currently involved;

Maradi: The department, cut off at the 350 mm isohyet;

Dosso: The Department; and

Niamey: The Department less the arrondissements of Say and Tera.

These 4 schemes would cover from 80% (cereals) to 100% (groundnuts)of the agricultural production apparatus of the country.

In the rest of the country production is assumed to remain at the

1971 level (considered a "normal" year). For the paddy developments a yieldof 8t/ha (2 harvests) is assumed, a figure which has already been reached atKarma (type C2), from the second year of implementation. As irrigation projectsare developed, traditional production will fall slightly, since part of itsarea is taken away.

Table B - Groundnut Production

Groundnut production is expected to increase with the implementationof the productivity schemes for Zinder, Maradi and Dosso since practicallyno groundnuts are grown in the Department of Niamey. This increase is basedon the standards establishled for Maradi as given in text table above.

Table C - Livestock - Production and Exports

Livestock development consists of a phase of herd reconstitution andslower offtake, estimated at 8 years (1975-82), followed by improved off-takerates.

The table if based on the following hypotheses:

- the cattle herd (4 million head in 1971) is reduced to 2.5 millionl/head in 1974, but its reproductive capacity is slightly improved;

- in view of this and the implementation of the pasture improvementproject discussed below, the rate of reproduction of the herdwould rise from 12% (the traditional rate) to' 15%;

- according to the needs of stockraisers and consumers this figureof 15% is divided as follows: 9% offtake (sale of animals of200 to 250 kg for slaughter or fattening) and 6% reconstitutionof the herd. Thus the herd would be reconstituted in 8 years;i.e. it would again number 4 million head in 1982, consideredan optimum in viLew of the agrostological potential of thepastoral zone;

1/ In view of the latest: estimates of losses (April 1974) of 50-60 percentthis may be a little optimistic.

ANNEX XIVPage 3

because of the projected rise in the price of meat, internalconsumption would remain at its present level of 6 to 7 kg ofbeef per capita per year at least for the first 10 years;

in the next 10 years, fattening will be based essentially onirriaated crops developed either along the river (chiefly inindustrial feedlots) or on small irrigated plots under theDosso fodder operation (traditional fattening). One hectareof fodder crop makes it possible to fatten about 17 animalsa year from 250 to 350 kg; and

- since this fattening program is located in the west of thecountry, the number of lean animals it will require willnever exceed 1/4 of all the lean animals available (removalsfrom herd less slaughter for domestic consumption).

Four livestock projects would be implemented (cf SEDES study):

(a) a general pasture improvement project (stock wateringfacilities and infrastructure);

(b) a "chain" operation called Project I, linking action zone I(South Tamesna, a breeding herd of 82,000 head), the (existing)Ekrafane ranch (capacity 10,000 head), and a feedlot on the rivercomprising 1,200 ha of irrigated fodder crops:

In zone I the standard offtake rate would be improved to 21%broken down as follows:

Young males of 140 kg 13%

Culled cows 8%

The flow of animals down the chain would therefore be asfollows:

Feedlot

ZoneIl= 82,00Ox13% m 11OOO x 250 Ig 1,200 ha 20,OOOx 350 kg82,COO ThCXJ0xli~0 lO-Japo about 2 000

\cows 82,000Ox8%= 7.000x 29Jg0k

A[NNEX XIAVPage 4

(c) a feedlot of 1,800 ha of irrigated crops on the river,requiring at the end of the development phase 30,000 leananimals from herds in the west of the country; and

(d) traditional fattening operations on 2,000 ha of irrigatedcrops in the south of Dosso Department under the productivityscheme - same number of lean animals (35,000).

Animals taken from the herd which do not go to a Niger slaughlter-house or to a fattening ranch are exported on the hoof. Since they are soldat the beginning of the dry season their weight (250 kg) is a little higherthan that of the animals killed throughout the year for domestic consumption(200 kg). Animals fattened are sold and exported at 350 kg average weight.

Tables Dl to D5- Agricultural Exports

The projections are derived from the volume forecasts described hereand the commodity price forecasts of the World Bank (January 1974). 1/

Cotton

The projected increase in production from the present slump (300tons of cotton fiber in 1973) is postulated on the rehabilitation project pre-pared by CFDT providing for cultivation of Niger's total potential of 20,000ha in 1984. Yields are 400 kg/ha in extensive cultivation, 900 kg/ha inintensive cultivation (treatment and animal-drawn plow and fertilizer in theGaya region):

1974 1977 1984

Hectares: 1'),000 (ext. + int.) 18,000 20,000

Tons (seed cotton): 5,200 12,200 14,000

Cowpeas (Niebe)

The increase in production of this fast expanding crop is expectedto come chiefly from the implementation of the productivity schemes.

According to the norms established for Maradi (1,600 tons in the5th year of the program), production would develop as shown below:

1979 3,200 tons

1984 4,800 tons

1989 6,400 tons

1/ See remark to Table DI below.

ANNEX XIVPage 5

Onions

The increase in production is expected from the development ofirrigated lots in the productivity schiemes (average of 100 ha x 30 tons =

3,000 tons per scheme) and from the Galmi project (expected exports of 1,000tons of dehydrated onions, corresponding to 7,000 tons of fresh onions).

Out-of-season-vegetables

At present, early vegetables for export are grown on some 100 ha

(largely by SONIPRIkl). It may be possible to double this area after theNiamey airport runway is extended to allow the normal operation of heavy cargoplanes.

200 ha x 7t/ha of exportable produce = about 1,500 tons

Table E - Basic Agricultural Investments

These are public investments - or rather development expenditures -corresponding to projects to develop rain-fed crops (productivity schemes),rice-growing along the Niger river and livestock, as well as security storage

facilities for 140,000 tons of grains (or about 10% of the projected millet +sorghum production).

All of these investments are estimated at early-1974 prices taken

from the relevant project dossiers. In the case of the productivity schemes,where the main and most costly item is staffing and training, the cost esti-mates for Maradi were extrapolated on the basis of the number of farms givenby the Agriculture Statistical Service (cf. Vol II, Agriculture, StatisticalAnnex, Table 10).

TABLE A - NIGER - CEREALS - PROJECTIONS OF PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

1971 1973 1979 1984 1989 1994

Population (2.25 percent p.a.), in 1000 4,100 4,300 4,915 5,490 6,120 6,860

Cereals consumption, in lOOOt 1,025 1,075 1,230 1,375 1,530 1,715(2<0 kg per capita per year)

2/Millet and sorghum (lOOOt)

Zinder scheme (1974-78) 213 245 273 273 273Maradi scheme (1975-79) 215 247 275 275 275Dosso scheme (1979-84) 215 215 247 275 275Niamey scheme (1984-89) 274 274 274 315 351

Departments of Tahoua and Diffa 200 200 200 200 200+ arrondissements not coveredby the schemes in the otherdepartments

Total millet + sorghum 1.117 1,181 1,269 1,338 1,374

Paddy (lOOOt)

Traditional production (lOOOt) 15 12 10Production on develoEqd land

area developed / 2,000 2,500 6,500 12,500Production (1OOOt) 12 52 100

Total paddy 27 64 110 110 110

Total cereals 1,144 1,245 1,379 1,448 1,484

1/ 1971: below-normal reference year for the schemes.

2/ The increase in cereal production is founded on the estimates made for Maradi, i.e. in normal years:+15 percent in the 5th year of the program - +28 percent in the 10th year of the program.

Moreover, the Zinder scheme is assumed to be remodeled according to Maradi norms.

3/ 1974-79 - 700 ha/yr = +4,000 ha1970-84 - 1200 ha/yr +6,000 haAfter 1984 production levels off, pending possible regulation of the river, which would permitextension of the irrigation schemes.

TABLE B NIGER - GROUNDNUTS - PROJECTIONS OF PRODUCTION (IN MILLIONS OF TONS IN SHELL)

(Current Prices)

1971 1979 1984 1989 1994

Principal producing regionswhen productivit /schemesare carried out -

Zinder (1975-79) 108 144 181 181 181Maradi (1975-79) 121 161 202 202 202Dosso (1979-8h) 18 18 24 30 30

Other regions (departments of 10 10 10 10 10Niamey, Tahara, Diffa +arrondissements not covered bythe schemes in the other departments

Total 257 333 417 423 423

1/ Below-normal reference year.

2/ The growth of production is based on the estimates made for Maradi, i.e. in normal years:+33 percent in the 5th year of the program+67 percent in the 10th year of the program.

TABLE C - NIGER - LIVESTOCK- PROJECTIONS OF PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS (CATTLE)(Current. Prices)

192' 1974 1 75 1976 1977 L_7& 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1284reference Phase of herd reconstitution and slower offtake Normal offtake

year Reproduction + 15 percent per year (9 percent rates+ 6 percent normal reconstitution)

Cattle herd (in 1000) 4,000 2,500 2,650 3,150 3,760 4,000

Exports. number of head)eaving herd (in 1000). 325 225 283 338 600

Population (in 1000)+2.25 percent per year ±.lO0 bL00 ,50nn 4,,l5 5,135 5,370 549

Internal consumptiontons (7t/l000) 28,700 31,500 34,400 36,ooo 37,600No. of head (200kg/head) in 1000 145 157 172 180 263

Remainder for export+ fattening (in 1000head) 180 68 111 158 337

Fattening (350 kg/head)1/

Project I Offtake (in 1000) Pastoral modernization projectdevelopment - 1,200 ha 14 20 20

Production (t) 5,000 7,000 7,0002/

River Offtake (in 1000) 15 30Production (t) development = 1,800 ha 5,800 10,500

Dosso Offtake (in 1000) 7 21 35Production (t) Small irrigation works

2,000 ha 2,500 7,500 12,000

Export on the hoofNo. of head (in 1000) 180 68 104 122 272Tonnage (t) 45,000 17,CO0 26,ooo 35,000 68,000

(250 kg/ head)

Total Exports (t) 45,000 17,000 33,500 50,800 97,500 10,000

NOTES TO TABLE C

1/ Channel linking Pastoral Zone I and Ekrafane + 1,200 ha River Feedlot exploiting a breed-ing herd of 82,000 head.

2/ Feedlot on the River, 1,800 ha, taking lean animals from the pastoral area.

3/ Fattening on irrigated lots under the Dosso rural development scheme.

D 1 - tIGER - PROJECTION OF EXPORTS = GROUNDNUTS AND DERIVATI'VES Rate of Exchange $1 1971=2781972=252

(Current Prices) 1073=222i974=250

1971 1972 1973 19714 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 198L 1 9Rc

2. Production (lOOOt shelled) 158 140 70 140 160 170 180 190 20c 215 251 2613. EProduction crushed (1OOOt) 65 65 130 130 130 130 1_30 130 130 1304. Production of oil (1OOOt)5. Exports of oil (1O0t) 10 14 30 30 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 606. c.i.f. price oil ($/t) 426 545 708 687 673 652 637 620 6057. Costs ($/t) 77 93 98 lOh 110 116 123 130 1378. f.o.b. price oil ($/t) 349 452 610 583 563 536 514 490 468

10. Value of oil exports ($million) 3.5 4.8 13.5 18.3 35.0 33.8 32.1 30.8 29.4 28.1

12. Production of cakes (1OOOt) 35 35 70 70 70 70 70 7013. Exports of cakes (1000) 9 18 32 32 67 66 66 66 66 66lh. c.i.f. price ($/t) 149 317 195 201 200 198 194 187 17515. Costs ($/t) 61 83 88 93 98 104 109 116 12216. f.o.b. price ($/t) 88 234 107 108 102 94 85 71 53

18. Value of cake exports ($million) 1.0 1.6 7.5 3.4 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.6 4.7 3.5

20. Exports of shelled groundnuts 93 92 75 5 10 30 4o 50 60 75(lOOOt)

21. c.i.f. price ($/t) 249 261 381 394 392 385 377 368 355 34222. Costs ($/t) 614 69 73 77 81 °6 91 96 10223. f.o.b. price ($/t) (132)-/ 197 312 321 315 304 291 277 259 24025. Value of ronutexports

2 emillion) (12.2)-/18.3 23. 1.6 3.1 9.1 11.6 13.9 15.5 18.0

28. Total exports of groundnutsand derivatives ($million) 16.7 24.7 44.4 23.3 45.3 49.6 49.9 50.3 49.6 49.6

Note: World Bank price forecasts of February 1974 were revised in April and June 1974. The new forecastsslightly modify the above projections up to 197u. For the 'LI years (1977-80) export values, under therevised price projection, would roughly n.rease by 7, 12, 20 and 25 percent res-ectivelr.

NOTES TO TABLE D 1

General Note: all prices c.i.f., in current US$ prices, Liverpool.

Line 2: Marketed production.

Line 3: Crushed production: tied to production of preceding year.

Line 5: Yield of oil 46 percent.

Line 7: Costs (oil), according to SICONIGER estimate for 1972/73 - CFAF 19,500 (not includingexport duty of CFAF 7000/ton, +5.7 percent (world inflation).

Line 13: Exports of cakes = production less estimated local consumption rising from 3000 tons1972-75 to 4,000 tons 1976-80.

Line 15: Costs (cakces) according to SICONIGER = CFAF 17,350 (not including export duty of CFAF565/ton) for 1972 + 5.7 percent per year (the figure for costs deduced from the customsfigures comes to less: $61 or CFAF 13,500 approximately).

Line 20: Exports of groiindnuts: tied to production of preceding year.

Line 22: Costs (groundnuts) according to SONARA information 1973 = CFAF 15,300 (rounded) + 5.7percent per year (not including export duty of CFAF 2250/t).

Note 1/ Lines 23 and 25: accordlng to customs figures: the f.o.b. price appears abnormally low,having regard to 1971 world prices.

D 2 - PROJECTIONS OF EXPORTS: COTTON - CURRENT PRICES

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1984

Production

1 . Cotton seed (lOOOt) 8.3 5.2 3.0 5.0 8.0 10.0 13.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 15.0

2 . Cotton fiber (1OOOt) 1.9 1.1 1.9 3.0 3.7 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.2

3 . Exportation fiberk -LV0^U 1 4., 7 I .4 0 -9 a u- 1 -n0 r-n n 3. 3.3 3.7 3.7

4 . f. o. b. price ($/t) 735 695 990 1,585 1,234 1,179 1,101 1,043 964 950

5 * Export costs ($/t) 180 191 201 212 224 237 250 264

6 . c.i.f. price ($/t) 783 838 1,170 1,766 1,435 1,391 1,325 1,280 1,214 1,214

Value of exports($million) 1.5 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.2 2.3 2.4 3.4 3.2 3.5

Notes to Table D 2

Line 1: Production 1971 CFDT figures1973 CFDT estimate1977-84 = according to CFDT project for boosting cotton productionthe 15,000 t (1984) and 17,000 t (1989) correspond to the total potential of

20,000 haLine 2: Ginning yield - 37 percentLine 3: 1000 t/yr to NITEK (1972/73 level) up to 1975; thereafter 1,500 tLine 5: Estimate based on CFDT informationLine 6: World Bank forecasts (January 1974)

D 3 - PROJECTIONS OF EXPORTS - MEAT AND LIVE ANIMALS - CURRENT PRICES

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1984

Meat on the hoof (1000 t) 42.6 55.2 16.0 26.0 30.5 68.0

Carcasses in live equivalent 0.7 0.6 1.0 7.5 20.3 29.5(1000 t)

Total 43.3 55.8 17.0 23.0 25.0 32.0 33.5 40.4 50.8 97.5

Price per kg live weight onthe hoof f.o.b. port ($/t) (162) (262) (340) (340) 357 375 394 413 434 450 472

Value of exports ($million) 6.1 8.6 9.8 13.2 14.5 18.1 24.0

D 4 - PROJECTIONS OF EXPORTS - SECONDARY AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

(Current Prices)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1984 1989

Hides and skinsgoat (lOOOt) 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 o.6 0.6 0.9 1.C 1.2 1.2f.o.b. price ($/t) 1000 1500 1890 1980 1050 990 1200 1290 1350 1500Value ($million) 1.2 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5

Cowpeas(lCOOt) 3.0 C.U u.8 0.8 1.0 1.5 8.3 3.2 5.0 5.5 6.3 7.5f.o.b. price ($/t) 108 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 160 160 150 150Value ($million) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 o.6 0.8 0.9 0.9

Fresh onions(1OO0t) 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 11.0Price ($/t) 250 270 285 300 317 335 354 374 396 418Value ($million) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5

Dried onions(1000t) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0c.i.f. priceShipped/t/Ff (500/600/Ff)

($1170) 1500 1670 1710Value ($million) 1.5 1.6 1.7

Fresh vegetables(1000t) 0.35 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5f.o.b. price ($/t) 1000 1057 1117 1180 1250 1320 1390 1470Value ($million) 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2

1/ 1/Total secondary exports 2.2 1.7 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.8 6.1 7.1 7.8

1/ Reported exports.

D 5 - TOTAL AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS - CURRENT PRICES

($ millions)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1984 1989

Shelled groundnuts 12.2 18.3 23.4 1.6 3.1 9.1 11.6 13.9 15.5 18.0

Groundnut oil 3.5 4.8 13.5 18.3 25.0 33.8 32.1 30.8 29.4 28.1

Groundnut cakes 1.0 1.6 7.5 3.4 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.6 h.7 3.5

Total groundnuts 16.7 24.7 44.4 23.3 35.3 49.6 49.9 50.3 49.6 49.6

Cotton fiber 1.5 0.8 1.0 0 1.2 2.3 2.4 3.4 3.2 3.5

Animals + meat 7.1 9.8 1.0 0 6.1 8.6 9.8 13.2 14.5 18.1

Hides and skins 1.2 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5

Cowpeas, onions,vegetables 1.0 0.8 0.9 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.1 5.3 5.9 6.3

Uncontrolled exports 5.0 7.5 0.9 2.2 - - - - - -

Total 32.5 44.5 49.7 28.2 h5.4 63.8 65.9 73.0 74.4 79.0

Index of value 100 137 152 87 1h0 196 203 225 229 243Index of volume 166Index of price 146

TABLE E 1 -NIGER - PROJECTIONS OF BASIC AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS - CURRENT PRICES(CFAF millions)

1974 75 76 77 7o 79 80 81 82 83 84 o5 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 931/

Productivity schemesZinder (100,000 farms) 206 3840 (960/yr) - - 60/vrMaradi ( 80,000 " )3880 75Dosso ( 70,000 n ) 3,3-O (672-rT - 392/yr - _

Niamey ( 90,000 " ) (h6ryr)

Rice-growing eauipment 2/ 2,500ha 6,500ha 12,500haDevelopment of depressions +4,000ha=700 ha/Yr +6,000ha-1 200 ha/yr

3/ 2,600 = 435/yr 3,900 = 7d0/yrRice mills +14,000t +20,000t

IV 300 400Stockpiling facilities lOO.OOOt +20,000t +20,000t

i,ouu k53i)yr) 320 32u

LivestockModernization pastoral zone Zone I 870+Stk.wat,760=1,630(Zone I +6 tock watering) (272/yr)Feedlot I- 1, 200ha

1,320 (660/yr)River feedlot 1'800ha

1,980 (459/yr)Traditional fattening: Dosso 2000ha

6,000t 7T0(152/yrTSlaughterhouses - Niamey

extension 145 +19 0008010

Others MaradiZinder Tahoua

1/ Estimated according to Maradi norms: investment period CFAF 48,000 in 5 yearsmaturation period CFAF 5,60o per year

2/ Average cost CFAF 650,000/ha3/ Capacity 6,000 t paddy in 1974T7/ 10 percent of cereal production: 4/5 in cooperative silos at CFAF 10,000/t

1/5 in government silos at CFAF 40,000/t, or CFAF 16,000/t on average5/ See SEDES project/ Irrigated agricultural development + livestock infrastructure evaluated at CFAF 110 million for 100 ha according

to Tiaguirir6 project./ Component of the Dosso project - CFAF 380/ha for small-scale irrigation using dug wells.Note: Investment period;

Maturation period;

TABLE E 2 - PROJECTIONS OF BASIC AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS - CURRENT PRICES

(CFAF million)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

Annual investment 1,319 2,975 3,020 3,147 3,102 3,681 4,481 3,381 3,154 2,614

Cumulative investments 1,319 4,294 7,314 10,461 13,563 17,244 21,725 25,106 28,260 30,814

Yearly average 3,087

1984 1985 E9Q6 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Annual investments 2,806 1,656 1,256 1,256 1,256 504 504 504 504 504

Cumulative investments 2,806 4,462 5,718 6,974 8,230 8,734 9,238 9,742 10,246 10,750

Yearly average 1,075

Note: 1. The apparent precision of the figures results from exact addition of the components of the program:it does not claim to be exact.

2. Figures for the second decade (1984-93) refer by construction to continuation of the basic programproposed and do not include the cost of new operations that might be undertaken above and beyondthat program.

3. Figures are estimates of 1974 prices.