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Cummings Economics. The Cairns Economy Recent Movements and Short-Term Prospects Presentation to the Cairns Chamber of Commerce Luncheon Sep tember 2005. Bill Cummings - Principal. Cummings Economics Compass Research North Australia Research Group. Cummings Economics - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Cummings Economics
The Cairns EconomyRecent Movements and Short-Term Prospects
Presentation to the Cairns Chamber of Commerce Luncheon
September 2005
Cummings EconomicsPh 4031 2888 Fax 4031 1108 Email [email protected]
Bill Cummings - Principal
Cummings EconomicsCompass ResearchNorth Australia Research Group
A Record Year
VALUE BUILDING APPROVALS OVER $600 m
VALUE TOURISM TO REACH $2.5 bn
VALUE AGRICULTURE TO REACH $1 bn
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Tourism Growth Since 1998 / 99
Pax Movements
Cairns Airport
Takings
Hotels / Motels
1998 / 99 2,770 m $243 m
2004 / 05 3,689 m $314 m (est)
GROWTH +33% +29%
* Estimate based on first 9 months
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Source : Cummings Economics from - Cairns Port Authority - ABS. Data
Agricultural Indicators
Gross Value of Production
2002 / 03 $880 m
Sugar Price 2002 / 03 Current
Growth
8.0 ¢ US/lb
10.5 ¢ US/lb
+31%
Banana Production Up in 2004 over 2003 & likely to hold in 2005
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Source : - ABS Data - ABARE - Cummings Economics
Value of - Building ApprovalsFar North Qld Statistical Division
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980/8
1
1982/8
3
1984/8
5
1986/8
7
1988/8
9
1990/9
1
1992/9
3
1994/9
5
1996/9
7
1998/9
9
2000/0
1
2002/0
3
2004/0
5
$M
Source : ABS. The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Value of Building Approvals 2004/05
New Dwellings
Total Value
Cairns / Far North 2747 $850m
Townsville / North 2011 $665m
Darwin / NT 1388 $641m
Mackay / Mackay 1521 $523m
Rockhampton / Fitzroy 1149 $345m
(cf. Tasmania 2424 $852m
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Cairns / FNQ in the NorthCompared with other northern regions
Source : ABS.
Est Residential Population
2003 / 04Growth
2003/04
Cairns / Far North 234,849 (3385)
Darwin / NT 199,913 (1369)
Townsville / North 200,909 (3298)
Rockhampton / Fitzroy 187,916 (2562)
Mackay Stat Div 143,699 (1970)
Estimated Gross Value of “Base Industries”Tropical (Far) North Queensland 2002/03 (2)
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Agriculture $890 m 18%
Sugar Cane $241 m
Fruit $345 m
Other $302 m
Fishing $200 m 5%
Mining $230 m 5%
Manufacturing (3) $650 m 15%
Tourism (4) $2020m 47%
Other $300 m 7%
TOTAL $4290 m 100%
(1) “Base Industries” defined as those mainly
oriented to earning income from outside the region.
(2) Latest year for which consistent statistics for the
different industries are available.
(3) Turnover adjusted to exclude value of
Agricultural inputs.
(4) Overnight visitors.
Source : Cummings Economics, Cairns.
Growth in Jobs – Service Industries1976 – 2001 (FNQ Stat Division)
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
1976 2001 % Increase
Wholesale 2514 3983 +58%
Retail 5863 14970 +155%
Tpt & Storage 2236 6576 +194%
Communications 676 988 +46%
Finance & Business Services
2349 9309 +296%
Public Admin & Defence
2189 8088 +269%
Education 2487 6904 +177%
Community Services 3358 8463 +152%
Total Workforce 42,496 100,930 +138%
Source : ABS Census Data.
Short-Term FluctuationsPopulation Growth Rates - Cairns
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%1
97
6/7
7
19
77
/78
19
78
/79
19
79
/80
19
80
/81
19
81
/82
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
Source : ABSThe Cairns Economy
Cummings EconomicsSeptember 2005
Major Sources of Fluctuations
Growth in outside earnings
Investment Cycles Consumer Sentiment
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Growth in Passenger MovementsCairns Airport
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
Source : ABSThe Cairns Economy
Cummings EconomicsSeptember 2005
Short Term – Overseas Departures from Australia
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
Source : ABSThe Cairns Economy
Cummings EconomicsSeptember 2005
Growth in Room Nights – Hotels Motels
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%1
99
7/9
8
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
Source : ABSThe Cairns Economy
Cummings EconomicsSeptember 2005
Brazilian “Real” to Australia Dollarat end June
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
Source : ABSThe Cairns Economy
Cummings EconomicsSeptember 2005
Banana Production QueenslandSold Through Markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
'000 Tonnes
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Source : ABGC.
Mining ProductionFar North Queensland
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1991/92 1994/95 1997/98 2000/01 2003/04
$M
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Source : Q’ld Dept of Natural Resources & Mines.
Other Service Industries
Recent
International Education $50 m
Sports Tourism $50 m
Business Tourism $190 m
Aviation Servicing $50 m
Maritime Servicing (Shipbuilding) $115 m
Research ?
Professional Services ?
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Other Income SourcesGeneral Trade PNG / Indonesia $270m
Fly in – Fly out $25m
Defence & Surveillance $180m
Indigenous Programs (Commonwealth) $150m
Dwelling ApprovalsCairns
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
87/88 89/90 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04
Number
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005Source : Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Ratio of Dwelling Approvals to Residential Population Growth
Cairns City
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
87/88 89/90 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04
Number
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005Source : Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Avg : 0.54 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
House Prices
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Source : Cummings Economics from RP Data.
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Median Price
Interest Rate Differential with US
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
Source : Cummings Economics from Reserve Bank of Australia Data
WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH NARROWLY BASED
US & CHINA
THREAT - HIGH OIL PRICES
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY
SOUND
The Cairns EconomyCummings Economics
September 2005
CONTINUING STRONG
GROWTH
