CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03 Asian Monsoon - ENSO Teleconnections + Climate Change Scenarios for India K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow ([email protected])

CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

Asian Monsoon - ENSO Asian Monsoon - ENSO TeleconnectionsTeleconnections

++Climate Change Scenarios for Climate Change Scenarios for

IndiaIndia

K. Krishna KumarK. Krishna KumarCIRES Visiting FellowCIRES Visiting Fellow

(([email protected]@colorado.edu))


OutlineOutline

• Monsoon Variability and ENSO LinksMonsoon Variability and ENSO Links

• Recent indifferent behavior of MONSOON-Recent indifferent behavior of MONSOON-ENSO links and some plausible ENSO links and some plausible explanationsexplanations

• A brief description on Climate Change A brief description on Climate Change Scenarios for the Indian region and Scenarios for the Indian region and possible impacts on Rainfall/Temperature possible impacts on Rainfall/Temperature Extremes and Cyclonic StormsExtremes and Cyclonic Storms


Indian Summer Monsoon FlowIndian Summer Monsoon Flow


Monsoon –Monsoon – A Gigantic Land-Sea A Gigantic Land-Sea BreezeBreeze


Agriculture Agriculture FactsFacts

India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them Roughly 65% of the population is rural India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92

was about 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period

Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4th in the world About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture


IRRIGATIONIRRIGATION CropCropArea Area under under crop crop (mn. (mn. hec)hec)

Irrigated Irrigated area area

under under crop crop (mn. hec.)(mn. hec.)

Irrigated Irrigated area as % area as % of total of total

area area under under cropscrops

FoodgrainsFoodgrains 121121 4545 3737

RiceRice 4343 1919 4545

WheatWheat 2323 1919 8484

Non-Non-foodgrainsfoodgrains

6161 1919 3131

GroundnutGroundnut 99 22 2020

CottonCotton 77 33 3333

SugarcaneSugarcane 44 33 8686

TotalTotal 183183 6464 3535


Total Total Foodgrain Foodgrain Production in Production in India and its India and its Relation to Relation to Indian Indian RainfallRainfall


UNESCO (2000) Report on World UNESCO (2000) Report on World WaterWater

• Earth's hydrosphere contains a huge Earth's hydrosphere contains a huge amount of water equivalent to 1386 amount of water equivalent to 1386 million km3.million km3.

• 97.5% of this amount is saline and only 97.5% of this amount is saline and only 2.5% fresh water.2.5% fresh water.

• The greater portion of this fresh water The greater portion of this fresh water (68.7%) is in the form of ice and (68.7%) is in the form of ice and permanent snow cover in the Antarctic, permanent snow cover in the Antarctic, the Artic and in the mountainous region.the Artic and in the mountainous region.

• Next 31.3% exit as utilizable fresh water.Next 31.3% exit as utilizable fresh water.

• Only 0.26% of the total amount of fresh Only 0.26% of the total amount of fresh water on the earth is concentrated in water on the earth is concentrated in lakes, reservoirs, and river systems where lakes, reservoirs, and river systems where they are most easily accessible for our they are most easily accessible for our economic needs and absolutely vital for economic needs and absolutely vital for water eco system.water eco system.


India’s Water SituationIndia’s Water Situation


Indian Institute of Tropical Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, IndiaMeteorology, Pune, India(An Autonomous Institute under Dept. of Science & Technology, (An Autonomous Institute under Dept. of Science & Technology, Govt. of India)Govt. of India)

• Established 1962Established 1962

• Initially part of Met Initially part of Met DepartmentDepartment

• Autonomous in 1971Autonomous in 1971

• 100 Scientists100 Scientists

• Focus on Monsoon Focus on Monsoon ResearchResearch

• Climate Diagnostics Climate Diagnostics and Modellingand Modelling


Mean Rainfall PatternsMean Rainfall PatternsData Source: CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source: CMAP (1979-2000)

Summer Monsoon(mm/season)

Annual(mm/year)


Indian Summer Monsoon Indian Summer Monsoon Contribution to Annual Rainfall and its VariabilityContribution to Annual Rainfall and its Variability

Data Source : CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source : CMAP (1979-2000)

Monsoon/Annual (%) Coefficient of Variation (%)


Mean Annual Cycle of Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly RainfallAll-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ra

infa

ll (m

m/m

on

th)


Monsoon Monsoon VariabilityVariability

Intraseasonal Interannual Decadal/Century Millennia & longer

Onset/withdrawal; Active and break-monsoon phases;30-50 day oscillations; severe rainstorms

Droughts and floods

Changes in the frequency of droughts and floods

Changes in the areal extents of monsoons

Atmospheric variability;tropical-midlatitude interactions;Soil moisture;Sea surface temperatures

Atmospheric interactions;El Niño/ Southern Oscillation;Top layers of tropical oceans;Snow cover;Land surface characteristics

Monsoon circulation variations;Deep ocean changes;Greenhouse gases increase;Human activities;Biospheric changes;Volcanic dust

Global climate excursions;Ice ages;Warm epochs;Sun-earth geometry

Fa

cto

rsF

act

ors

Fe

atu

res

Fe

atu

res


Daily Evolution of Rainfall on all-India Daily Evolution of Rainfall on all-India ScaleScale

20022002 20032003


The Stability of the Indian Summer The Stability of the Indian Summer MonsoonMonsoon

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Years

Ra

infa

ll (c

m)

Mean (R) = 84.8 cmStandard Deviation (S) = 8 cm

R

R+S

R-S



MonRF epochsMonRF epochs




Schematic view of sea surface temperature and tropical rainfall in the the equatorial Pacific Ocean during normal, El Niño, and La Niña conditions

..


Global Impacts Global Impacts of ENSOof ENSO

CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

Low-frequency co-variability of Monsoon Low-frequency co-variability of Monsoon Rainfall and ENSORainfall and ENSO




Difference in the Composites of Winter (Prior to Monsoon) Surface Air Difference in the Composites of Winter (Prior to Monsoon) Surface Air Temperatures over the Eurasian Region during El Nino Events pre-Temperatures over the Eurasian Region during El Nino Events pre-

1980 and post-1980 periods1980 and post-1980 periods

(1981-97) – (1951-80)(1981-97) – (1951-80)El NinosEl Ninos

Diff. Climatologies of these PeriodsDiff. Climatologies of these Periods


Relation between Indian Monsoon Rainfall and Relation between Indian Monsoon Rainfall and 200 (A,B) and the Composites of 200 (A,B) and the Composites of 200 for El Nino 200 for El Nino

Events pre-,post-80’s (C,D)Events pre-,post-80’s (C,D)


Sea Surface Temp Anomalies in 1982 & Sea Surface Temp Anomalies in 1982 & 19971997

JJA 82 SON 82

JJA 97 SON 97

Monsoon Rainfall: -13%

Monsoon Rainfall: +2%


Sea Surface Temp Anomalies: 1987 & Sea Surface Temp Anomalies: 1987 & 20022002

JJA 87 SON 87

JJA 02 SON 02




Precipitation Anomalies: JJAPrecipitation Anomalies: JJA

1982 1997

1987 2002

Monsoon Rainfall: -13% Monsoon Rainfall: +2%

Monsoon Rainfall: -18% Monsoon Rainfall: -19%


Precipitation Anomaly in NE Australia (DJF) and NE Precipitation Anomaly in NE Australia (DJF) and NE Brazil (JFM) in 1988 and 1998Brazil (JFM) in 1988 and 1998

1988 1998

1988 1998


Surface Temp Anomaly over North Surface Temp Anomaly over North America: DJFAmerica: DJF

1983 1998

1988 2003


Precipitation/Forecasts of SST and Precipitation in JAS 2002 by Different GCMs




SST Patterns Used for ENSO SST Patterns Used for ENSO ExperimentsExperiments


SST Patterns Used for Indian Ocean SST Patterns Used for Indian Ocean ExperimentsExperiments


AA

AA

CC


Response of Indian Monsoon Rainfall to DifferentResponse of Indian Monsoon Rainfall to DifferentEl Nino Related SST PatternsEl Nino Related SST Patterns

Model Model MonsooMonsoon n RainfallRainfall

ENSO - ENSO - CTLCTL

NINODL-NINODL-NINONINO

ENSOGW-ENSOGW-ENSOENSO





JJA-1JJA-1 SON-1SON-1

DJF-1DJF-1 MAMMAM



Documents

CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03 Asian Monsoon - ENSO Teleconnections + Climate Change Scenarios for India K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow ([email protected])