CSD-15 Learning Centre Course 30 April 2007,

8/14/2019 CSD-15 Learning Centre Course 30 April 2007,

1/30

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

CSD-15 Learning Centre Course

30 April 2007, UN Headquarters, New York

How to align actions to address cHow to align actions to address climate changelimate change

withwith national sustainablenational sustainable developmentdevelopment goals?goals?

P.R. ShuklaP.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, IndiaIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India


Agenda

Developing Country Dynamics

Scenarios: Transitions of Goals, Institutions, Demographics, Incomes, Preferences

Modeling: Co-benefits, Lock-ins, Endogenous and exogenous environment

Policy analysis: Balancing Equity, Efficiency and Sustainability

Some Illustrations (from India)

Aligning Energy Security and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals

Co-benefits from Aligning Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia

Sustainable Development and Adapting Long-life Assets to Climate Risks

Modeling Climate Stabilization Induced Development Paths

Modeling Transition to Low Carbon Future through Sustainable Development

Conclusions


2/30


What make developing countries different? Different stage of development: priorities and capabilities

Different economic dynamics than assumed in scenario assessments

Need and opportunities to align climate and development agenda

Developing Country Dynamics


Understanding development

Dual Economy

Multiple Transitions

Informal Activities

Subsistence Production

Market Performance and Disequilibria

Non-commercial Fuels

Non-economic Concerns Policy Distortions


3/30


TransitionsSocio-Economic

Demographic Population

Urban / Rural

Gender ratio

Migration

Development

Soft indicators: Income, Equity, Literacy, Health

Hard indicators: Infrastructure, Housing, Vehicles, Appliances

Political

Institutions Laws

Policies


Demographic Transitions in India: Age/Gender Profile

Populat ion Project ion for 2030

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

Ago

Populat ion (million)

FemaleMale

Popu la t ion Pr o jec t ion fo r 2010

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700- 45- 9

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 8485 - 8990 - 9595 - 99100+

Aggo

Population (mill ion)

FemaleMa le


70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700- 45- 910 - 14

15 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 8485 - 8990 - 9595 - 99100+

Aggo


FemaleMale

Population in 1970

50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 500- 45- 9

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 8485 - 8990 - 9595 - 99100+

Aggo


FemaleMale


4/30


Demographic Transitions in India: Urban/Rural

Urban & Rural populat ion of India (Medium Var iant)

0102030405060708090

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Year

%She

Rural

Urban


Composition of India's GDP by Sector

Data Source: CMIE and Economic Surveys of India

1980 - 81

41%

37%

22%

1950 - 51

13%

28%

59%

2003 - 04

24%

51%

25%

Agriculture Agriculture

Agriculture

Industry

Industry

Industry

Services

Services

Services

22%


5/30


Shift in electricity demand and generation

Industry59%

Domestic11%

1980

78 TWH

Industry35%

Domestic22%

Commercial6%

Agri29%

2000

313 TWH

Traction 3% Others 5%

Agri17%

Traction3%

Commercial6%

Others4%

Demand

G

eneration

Oil-Thermal

3%

Nuclear3%

Gas-Thermal

11%

Coal-Thermal

70%

Hydro

13%Coal

Thermal

51%

Oil

Thermal0.02 %

Gas Thermal0.04%

Hydro45%

Nuclear4%

1971

61 TWH

2001

558 TWH


Past Energy transitions: Global & India

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1850 1900 1950 2000

Percentag

eofPEC

Traditional

renewables

Coal

Oil

Gas

HydroNuclear

Coal

Global0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1953-54 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02

PercentageofPEC

Non-commercial

energy supply

Hydro

Coal &

LIgnite

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

India


6/30


PercentageofPrimaryEnergyConsumption

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1952 1960 1970 1980 1990

TraditionalBiomass

Nuclear

How to transit toModern Biomass?

Food Security?

Fuel Supply?

Waste disposal?

Safety?

En. Security:+Ve

Changing Structure of Energy Use

2001

Hydro

Coal

Oil

Gas

Domestic Resource: +ve

Direct Employment: +ve

Energy Security: -ve

Foreign Exchange: -ve

Geopolitical Risk: High

Foreign Exchange: -ve

Regional water disputes?

Indirect Benefits


Efficient Appliances

Substitutions (e.g. Information for transport)

Advance Technologies

- Fuel-cell

- Hydrogen economy

- Bio-engineering

TransitionsDemand-side Opportunities


7/30


Transition in Household Energy Use in India:

Fuel-wood to LPG

Data Sources - Census 2001, NSS 1994, 2000

Urban

Rural

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

%

0

5

10

15

20

25

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Index:1981=1

LPG consumption in India

0

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Index:1981=1

Population

Fuel-wood

production

% Household LPG penetration in India


Awareness- Pressure groups

Income-effects- E.g. Kuznets phenomenon

Laws and Regulations- Global agreements

- National policies

Technology- Zero-effluent Processes

- Recycling

Environmental Transitions


8/30


Conservation- Substitutions

- Recycling

City Planning

Architecture/ Building Codes

Changing Preferences

Income Effects

Consumption/Life-style Transitions


Logistics- Pipelines

Electricity T&D- Decentralized utilities

Information- Wireless

Nanotechnology

New and Renewable Energy- Hydrogen

Backbone Technology Transitions


9/30


Path Dependence: Lock-ins vs. Innovations

Elasticity of long-term paths to short-term influences

Lock-ins from current technology supply

SRES Scenarios and Technology paths

Development policies and path dependence

Decarbonization of Primary Energy: History

400

600

800

1000

1960 1970 1980 1990

kgC/toe

China

India

USA

Japan

France

2000

??

IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Year

CO2(GtC)

A1

A2

B1

B2

WRE550


Emerging drivers of technological change

International Labor market Wage differential

Income gaps

Migration

Human Capital

Knowledge flows Diasporas and social networks

Shifting comparative advantage in knowledge services Role of local and contextual knowledge

Governance, risks and investment flows


10/30


Modeling Developing Country Dynamics

(Some illustrations from India)

Aligning Technology Transitions with Climate Goals

Conjoint Market for CO2 and SO2 Emissions

Co-benefits from Aligning Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia


Enhanced sink capacity, reduced

GHG and local emissions; lower

fossil imports; reduced pressure onland, resources and ecosystems

Higher adaptive capacity to from

enhanced supply of water, health &

education in rural areas

Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and

33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)

Sustained access to potable drinking water

to all villages by 2007

Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012

via decentralized sources

Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by

2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

Goal 7: Ensure environmental

sustainability

Targets: Integrate SD principles in country

policies/ programs to reverse loss of

environmental resources

Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of

people without sustainable access to safedrinking water

Higher income enhances access toservices, food, fuel, information, an

enhances mitigative and adaptive

capacity

Higher climate variability would

enhance risks to meet the goal

Double the per capita income by 2012

Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012

Contain population growth to 16.2%

between 2001-2011

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty andhunger

Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015,

the proportion of people with income

below $1 a day and those who suffer from

hunger

Interface with Climate ChangeIndias National plan targetsMDG and global targets

MDG, Indias National Targets and Climate Change

Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development

Aligning climate policies and actions with: MDGs / National development targets

Agreed goals under extant international agreements

Developing resilience to Vulnerabilities and Adapting to changing Climate Parameters


11/30


Bio-energy: Climate and Development Goals

Rural Employment: (MDG1)Large scale employment potential in Jatropha plantation,seed collection and extraction

Farm Income (from waste lands): (MDG1)Net income Rs. 12000/Ha/year

Energy Security (MDG1&7)Imported fossil oil is replaced

Environment (MDG7)Carbon neutral, Rehabilitates waste land

Rural Employment

Oil Extraction Plant

Jatropha Plantation in India


Householdlighting,cooking

equipments

Farm auto,component

industry

Constructionand autoindustries

Bankingindustry

INPUTS

Land

Fertiliser

Labour

CapitalMachinery

Energy

Water

Ruralinfra-

structure

Ruralunemployed &under-employed

Surplus land fromfoodgrainssufficiency

Waterconservation,river linking

Fertiliserindustry

Rural Financinginfrastructure

RE technologies

solar, wind, fuelcells, bio-fuels etc

Roads, godowns,heavy vehicles

BIOMASS

Social-economic setup-Animal waste-Human waste-Crop residues-Waste-wood-Forest produce-pipeline transport

network

Technology change-agricrop productivity-farm m/c efficiency-Biomass andbiotechnology R&D-fuel enduse efficiency

OUTPUTS

Biomassfor power

Biomassfor Gas

Biomasspellets forburning

Biomassliquid fuels

Biomass

waste

Setting upof local

small scaleindustry

base

Hydrogenproduction

Biomass firedelectricityindustry

Communitylighting andequipments

Transportation- personalvehicles

- LCV, HCV

Farm equipmentwater pump,

tractor fuel, agriprocessing

Fertiliser use infields +

hand-madepaper

Fuel-cells

Waterprocessing +equipments

industr

Land markets

Network for Biomass Technology/Fuel Deployment


12/30


Conjoint Market for CO2and SO2 Emissions

MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability


India

China

Pakistan

anistan

Myanmar (B

NepalBhutan

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

TajikistanUzbekistan

IndonesiaMaldives

District-wise CO2 Emissions

India

China

Pakistan

anistan

Myanmar (B

NepalBhutan

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka


Indonesia

Maldives

Million ton

< 00.01 - 1.501.51 - 3.003.01 - 7.007.01 - 15.0015.01 - 39.29

1991 2005


13/30


")

") ")

")

")

")

")")

")

")

")

")

")

")

")

")

")

")

") ")

")")")

")

")

")")

")")

")

")

")")

")")")

")

")

")

")")")")")

")

")

") ")

")

")

")")")")

")

")

")

")

India

China

Pakistan

anistan

Myanmar (Bu

NepalBhutan

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka


Indonesia

Maldives

CO2 Emissions from Powe r secto r(2005)

0.00 - 1.40

1.41 - 3.66

3.67 - 8.67

more than 8.67

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

")

") ")

")

")

")

")")

")

")

")

")

")

")

")

")

")

")

") ")

")")")

")

")

")")

")")

")

")

")")

")")")

")

")

")

")")")")")

")

")

") ")

")

")

")")")")

")

")

")

")

India

China

Pakistan

anistan

Myanmar (Bu

NepalBhutan

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka


Indonesia

Maldives


0.00 - 1.40

1.41 - 3.66

3.67 - 8.67

more than 8.67


Legend


0.00 - 1.40

1.41 - 3.66

3.67 - 8.67

more than 8.67


Legend

0.00 - 1.40

1.41 - 3.66

3.67 - 8.67

more than 8.67


LegendCO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

CO2 emission from Power Sector (2005)


^_

^_^_^_^__

^_^_ ^_

^_

^_^_^_^_^_^_^_

^_^_

^_^_

^_^_

^_

^_^_^_^_^_

^_^_

^_

^__^_^__^_^_^_

^_

^_

^_

^_^_^_^_^_^_

^_^_

^_

^_

^_^_^_

^_

^_^_

^_

^_

^_^_^_^_^_^_^_ ^_

^_^__

^_

^_^_^_

^_

^_

^_^_^_ ^_ ^_^_ ^_^_^_^_ ^_ ^_^_

^_

^_^_

^_ ^_^_

^_

^_^__

^_^_

^_

^_

^_

^_^_India

China

Pakistan

anistan

Myanmar (B

NepalBhutan

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka


IndonesiaMaldives

CO2 Emissions from Ce ment sector(2005)

0.00 - 0.08

0.09 - 0.23

0.24 - 0.60

more than 0.60


Legend

^_

^_^_^_^__

^_^_ ^_

^_

^_^_^_^_^_^_^_

^_^_

^_^_

^_^_

^_

^_^_^_^_^_

^_^_

^_

^__^_^__^_^_^_

^_

^_

^_

^_^_^_^_^_^_

^_^_

^_

^_

^_^_^_

^_

^_^_

^_

^_

^_^_^_^_^_^_^_ ^_

^_^__

^_

^_^_^_

^_

^_

^_^_^_ ^_ ^_^_ ^_^_^_^_ ^_ ^_^_

^_

^_^_

^_ ^_^_

^_

^_^__

^_^_

^_

^_

^_

^_^_India

China

Pakistan

anistan

Myanmar (B

NepalBhutan

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka


IndonesiaMaldives


0.00 - 0.08

0.09 - 0.23

0.24 - 0.60

more than 0.60


Legend


0.00 - 0.08

0.09 - 0.23

0.24 - 0.60

more than 0.60


Legend

0.00 - 0.08

0.09 - 0.23

0.24 - 0.60

more than 0.60


Legend


Legend

CO2 emission from Cement Sector (2005)


14/30


LPS Locations

Year: 2000 Year: 2030


Co-Benefits: Joint SO2 and CO2 Mitigation

Joint mitigation costs $400Million less

Joint Mitigation: CO2mitigation @ $5/ton

& same SO2

target

Little carbon mitigationSO2mitigation alone

Co-benefitsMitigation Regime

Joint Mitigation (Period 2005-2030)

SO2 Emissions

MillionTonSO2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

7

Frozen SO2 Control Policies

A2 ScenarioEmission

Carbon Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

MillionTonofCarbon

A2 ScenarioEmissions

With Carbon Price @$5/ton of CO2

With BAU SO2 Control Policies


15/30


Co-benefits from Aligning Energy-Water

Markets in South-Asia

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability


Adaptation Challenge: Food/Water/Energy/Climate

Food

Agriculture uses

Ground Water for

Irrigation

WaterWater use depends on

crop pattern, cultivationpractices, electricity

supply, Climate

ClimateGHG emissions

depend on Energy/Technology Mix

EnergyEnergy use depends onpump efficiency, water

depth and Agriculture

practices


16/30


Rainfall, Inflows and Hydro Electricity GenerationState of Andhra Pradesh

0

800

1600

2400

3200

4000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Inflow(MTC)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Rainfall(mm)Water Inflow

Rainfall in Catchments Area

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1980 1984 1988 1992 2000

HydroElectricityGeneration(TWh)

1996

Rainfall and Water Inflows Hydro Electricity Generation


0.031050 Million TonSO2

0.98359Total

0.08285.1 Billion TonCO2 Equiv.

0.8732160 ExaJouleEnergy

% GDP$ BillionBenefit (Saving) Cumulativefrom 2010 to 2030

South-Asia Energy-Water Cooperation: Co-benefits

Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits

More Water for Food Production (MDG1)

16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)

Flood control (MDG1&7)

Lower energy prices would enhancecompetitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)

Integrated South-Asia Energy-Water Market


17/30


Modeling Climate Stabilization

Induced Development Paths


Stabilization induced technological change

Depends on the underlying endogenous development path

Stabilization would induce significant technological change

How to represent future technologies in models?

Architecture of climate regime is the key driver

Addressing Questions from Negotiators

Allocations of Emissions Rights Taxes and Revenue Recycling

Who pays?

Technology protocols


18/30


Indian Carbon Emissions Scenarios

Fragmented

IA1

Market Efficiency

IA2

Hybrid Economy

(Reference)

IB1

SustainableDevelopment

IB2

Self RelianceClosed Economy

Centralizatio

n

D e c e

n t r

a l i

z a

ti o n

Market integration

Governance

Integrated

2002000

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2020 2060 2100

CO2Emissions(MT)

1800

2040 2080

IA2: Reference Scenario

IB1: Sustainable Development

IA1: Market Efficiency

Carbon Emissions

Indias Total Carbon Emission in 21st Century(Billion Ton CO2)

Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363

Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario : 286(79% of IA2)

Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 198 (55% of IA2)

Indian Emissions Scenarios


Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Medium-Term (2050)

IA2

IB1

IA1

750

2000

1500

2250

3000

3750

4500

2020 2050

CO2Emissions(MillionTon)

20402010 2030

Frozen Technology

Conventional Technology Path: Includessignificant endogenous technological change

Renewable Energy Technologies

Push for renewable energy & recycling

Advanced car pooling, Shared assets

Sustainable habitats, Reforestation

Dematerialization, Community institutions

High speed trains, Swap of transport by IT

Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear (Thorium)

Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure

Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas

Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks

Advanced materials, Nanotechnology

Sustainable Development Scenario

Globalization/Market Efficiency Scenario


19/30


Indian Emission Scenarios and Stabilization

2000

1

2

3

4

5

6

2020 2060 2100

CO2Emissions(BillionTon)

7

2040 2080

550 ppmv

IA2

IB1

IA1

Carbon Emissions for Indian Scenarios

Indias Total Carbon Emission in 21st Century(Billion Ton CO2)

Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363

Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario : 286(79% of IA2)

Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 198 (55% of IA2)

550 PPMV Cost-effective Regime : 140 (39% IA2)


Modeling Transition to Low Carbon Future

through Sustainable Development:

An Analysis for India


20/30


LCS is a Development Pathway which:

a. facilitates achievement of the national socio-economic objectives and targets,

b. while contributing to the achievement ofglobalobjectives and targets for stabilization ofgreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,

c. in a cost-effective and sustainable manner.

Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Developing Country context?


Specifics of the roadmap would differ across countries.

What is important is to communicate transparently the

qualitative story and its quantification (i.e. modeling)

Low Carbon Society Roadmap

LowCarbonSociety

Innovations(APEIS/SDB)

Co-benefits

Sustainability

Technological

Social/Institutional

Management

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock-ins

Long-term Vision

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

NationalSocio-economic

Objectivesand Targets

GlobalClimate Change

Objectivesand Targets


21/30


Key areas for interventions:

Demographics Lower Population Growth (e.g. investment in womens education)

Higher investment in social infrastructures (e.g. health, education)

Conservation Efficient technology, Substitutions, Recycling, Pricing, Dematerialization

City Planning Architecture/ Building Codes; Land use policies; Public Transport

Infrastructure choices

R&D, technology transfer and selective technology push

Incentives for environmental industry

Influencing consumer preferences/ behavior

Low Carbon Society: Scenario Development for India


How sustainable development policies influence LCS?

E.g. Education, Employment and Productivity nexus

Policies for public private partnership higher (public and private)

investments in education Increases supply of education services

Incentives for education for women and socially and economically backward

sections enhances demand for education

Womens education reduces fertility rates & this together with family planning

campaigns lead to lower population (than in reference & some others cases)

The increases in labor participation rates and enhanced skill profiles maintains

labor supply and higher productivity in next few decades

Rural development policies (including education, employment, infrastructure

push and reduced risk for investments) break through the rural/ urban dualism

(Likewise for other drivers, the sustainability scenario story differ)


22/30


Factors of Production Labor Supply, Land-Use, Capital (Savings/ Investments)

Inputs: Resources supply/ Technologies Energy

Intermediate goods & investments Infrastructures

Energy (& Carbon) Intensive Sectors

Final Demand/ Behavior Private Consumption (Income effects/ preferences) Government expenditure

Governance Rents

Taxes Geopolitical Risks

Global/ External Trade Geopolitical Risks

Scenario Drivers

Demographic Transitions, Human Capital,

Productivity, Growth and Sustainability


Indias GDP (Index: 2005 GDP = 1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Index:2005GDP=1

CAGR 2005-32

VH- 9%, H - 8%, M- 7%, L- 6%

CAGR 2005-50

VH- 7.79%, H- 7.16%, M - 6.45%, L- 5.95%

Very High

High

Medium

Low

Indias Economic Growth: Future GDP Projections

Indias GDP Growth Rate (%)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

GDPGrow

thRates%

Very High

High

Med

Low

2050


23/30


Demographic Transitions in India: Age/Gender Profile


70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700- 45- 9

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 8485 - 8990 - 9595 - 99100+

Aggo


FemaleMa le


70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700- 45- 9

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 8485 - 8990 - 9595 - 99100+

Aggo


FemaleMa le


70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700- 45- 910 - 14

15 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 8485 - 8990 - 9595 - 99100+

Aggo


FemaleMale

Population in 1970

50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 500- 45- 910 - 14

15 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 8485 - 8990 - 9595 - 99100+

Aggo


FemaleMale

1970 2010

2030 2050


Population and Working Age Population

Population (Million)

358

555

849

1183

1449

1593

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Annual Growth Rate of Population

2.22% 2.15%

1.67%

1.02%

0.47%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

1950-70 1970-90 1990-2010 2010-30 2030-50

Labor Supply

133210

360

595

795915

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Annual Growth Rate of Labor Supply

2.30%

2.74%2.54%

1.46%

0.70%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

1950-70 1970-90 190-2010 2010-30 2030-50


24/30


Growth Scenarios

Human Capital Government Expenditure in Education

Private Expenditure in Education Urban / Rural & Gender-wise Education Expenditure

(Net) Migration by Labor Classes (intra & inter county)

R&D Government/ Private Expenditure

Knowledge Flows

Technology Backbones (infrastructures)

Learning, transfers, deployment

Saving/ Investments

Social Security

Lifestyles, Behaviors

Governance

Institutions

Laws

Policies

Savings Rate

20.6022.80

24.60

31.50

33.00

30.00

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

4035.00

26.00

??


Changing Structure of the Economy

1980

41%

37%

22%

1950

13%

28%

59%

2005

Agriculture Agriculture

Industry

Industry

ServicesServices 22%

52%

26%

Agriculture

Industry

Services

22%

History

Services

47%

Industry

25%

2000

Agri.28%

Services

56%

Agri.

18%

Industry

26%

2050

Industry

28%

Agri.

10%

Services

62%

2100

Future


25/30


Modeling & Analysis of

Low Carbon Development Path


Low Carbon Society (LCS) Scenario

Drivers of Indias LCS Scenario

Carbon Market Signal (e.g. from 2oCentigrade Global Target)

Energy Device Efficiency (Demand and Supply-side)

Dematerialization Building Materials and Design

Reduce (demand), Recycle & Reuse (3R) Materials

Infrastructure investments Avoid lock-ins

Shift demand (e.g. transport modal split)

R&D and Technology Transfer Leapfrog (to the efficiency frontier)

Innovations (to shift the efficiency frontier)

Planning & Governance Facilitate change in Lifestyles & Behaviors

Institutions, Laws, Policies


26/30


Carbon Emissions: Base vs. LCS Scenario for India

Mitigation

Indias Cumulative CarbonEmission from 2000-2050

Billion Ton of CO2

Reference Scenario: 127.2

LCS Scenario: 64.3

Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 62.9

% Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 49.5%

% Mitigation in LCS in 2050: 70.0%


Mitigation in LCS Scenario for India

Electricity (Supply+ T&D Efficiency)

Buildings(Materials/Design)

Transport (Modal shift)

Material substitutions

Renewable Energy

Reduced ConsumptionRecycling

745

384

328

274

207

90

102

265

Device Efficiency

2840Total CO2 Mitigation

Mitigation in LCS(in 2050)

173

272

Urban Planning

Transport Infrastructure

20502000 2006

1284

MillionTonofCO2

1032

4057

2050 LCS Emission: 1217

(70% Mitigation target in 2050)

2050 Base Scenario


27/30


Mitigation through dematerialization in LCS Scenario

Dematerialization in LCS vis--vis Base Scenario iscontributed by multiple direct and indirect policies,

most of which belong to the policy packages relatingto sustainable development.

Change in building materials and design contributesignificantly to dematerialization and energyefficiency in construction

In addition, three other key contributors tomitigation through dematerialization are:

Mitigation (MT CO2) in 2050

Material Substitutions 207

Reduced Consumption 173

Recycling 90

Energy and carbon intensive materials - of whichthe substitutions and reduced consumptioncontribute most to mitigation in the LCS scenario -are steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer and paper.

Recycling reduces the energy and carbon intensityof the materials, besides delivering environmentalco-benefits.

Materials Demand in Base vs. LCS

Cement

Fertilizer Paper

Steel

Base

LCS

Base

LCS

Base

LCS

Base

LCS


CO2 Intensities: Base vs. LCS Scenario

Indias CO2 intensity of GDP: Index 2000=100

Index2

000=100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

12.1

Base Scenario

LCS Scenario

3.6

Indias Per Capita CO2 Emissions (in Ton of CO2)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000

PerCapitaEmissions

Base Scenario

LCS Scenario

3.0


28/30


SO2 Mitigation Co-benefits of LCS Scenario

LCS policies generate benefits equivalent to 30% lower SO2in 2050 and cumulative saving in SO2 Emissions Reductionequivalent to $11.2 billion over period 2006-2050

SO2 Co-benefit in LCS Scenario

Little carbon mitigationSO2mitigation alone in Reference Scenario

Co-benefitsMitigation Regime

Joint Mitigation (Period 2007-2050)


Adapting to Climate Change:Vulnerability and Adaptation of Long-life

Assets from Climate Change


29/30


Monsoon Rainfall (2050)

Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure


2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

RepairandMainten

anceCosts

Cost with adverse

Climate Change

Conventional Bath-

Tub Curve

Cost with adverse Climate

Change and Deforestation

Maintenance Cost Curve

More number ofdays with >200

mm rainfal l Very h ighnumber of dayswith >200 mm

rainfall

Less numberof

days with >200mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future ClimateProbabilityofOccurrence

Light and

spread-over rai n

Heavy and

concentrated rainNumber of days with

> 200mm rainfall

Increase in mean and variability due to Climate Change

Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability

Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure


30/30


Conclusions: Aligning Climate & Sustainable Development Actions

Transiting to a Sustainable and Low Carbon Society

The LCS actions in developing countries should be development centric and

facilitate achieving national sustainable development and global environmentalobjectives simultaneously and cost-effectively

Developing Scenarios for Sustainable and Low Carbon Society Developing scenario storyline to gain development and climate co-benefits in

the near-term and avoid lock-ins in the long-run to transit to a sustainabledevelopment pathway

Mainstreaming climate actions, including mitigation and adaptation, withdevelopment actions that include innovations, co-benefits and sustainability

Modeling and Analysis for Sustainable and Low Carbon Society Multi-purpose soft-linked modeling tools linked to strategic global & national

databases Mainstream assessment of climate change and development actions through

national sustainable development objectives and targets


Thank you

Documents

CSD-15 Learning Centre Course 30 April 2007,