CAN H E

WIN?

Executive Summary Ted Cruz has committed his entire life to the Foundational principles that made

America great. From reciting the Constitution to Chambers of Commerce as a teenager; to his time in the Bush Administration; to his powerful victories before the Supreme Court; and finally, as one of the leading conservatives in the Senate, Ted has been a Courageous Conservative.

If Republicans nominate a conservative in 2016, there is a good chance we can win the White House

The Establishment however never seems to learn that moderates dont win

The 2016 Primary will be completely different from past primaries due to changes to the primary calendar and the number of well-funded candidates

Ted Cruzs leadership role on the most important issues that matter to primary voters: Marriage, Religious Freedom, Immigration, Common Core, ObamaCare, Debt and the Second Amendment uniquely position him to build the coalition of votes necessary to win a crowded primary

Cruz has the most complete portfolio of campaign assets

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign almost won.

Romney lost by only 428,000 votes in just five states:

Ohio 103,000

Florida 70,000

Colorado 113,000

New Mexico 76,000

Nevada 66,000

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign almost won.

He was the one man on the planet who could not use ObamaCare as a wedge issue

Romney HAD NO WEDGE OR MAGNET ISSUE to turn out the voters he needed

Social media amateurs

Campaign manager could not harness the power of data analytics for message creation, message targeting, and performance evaluation

NO GROUND GAME Moderates dont attract block-walkers

Terrible performance with Hispanics

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible team almost won Florida.

In 2012, 49% of the states Cuban Voters supported Obama while 47% supported Romney

Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban Vote in 2000 and 2004.

Obama carried Florida by only 70,000 votes

There are 1,400,000 Cubans in Florida

Cuban Cruz would have only needed 66% of the Cuban vote in order to have won Florida

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign lost Ohio due to record African-American turnout.

African-American Voter Participation increased 50% with Obama

In 2012 African-Americans made up 15% of Ohio Voters and they went 96% for Obama

In 2004, African-Americans made up 10%

Black population is flat to declining, roughly 12.1% of Ohios total population

Assuming that African-American support for the Democratic candidate had reverted the 2004 levels results in a vote swing of 193,648 Republicans would have won

Hillary will have to drive African-American turnout 25% over 2004 levels to win Ohio

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign managed to lose Virginia.

Since 2000, African-American citizen voting-age population actually shrank from 20% to 18.7% in Virginia by 2012

Likewise, since 2000, the Hispanic share of potential voters also shrank from 3.4% to 2.5% by 2012

Yet Romney managed to generate a turnout rate among non-Hispanic whites (66.4%) that was not only lower than among African-Americans (69.5%), but lower than among Hispanics (71.9%)

If African-American turnout just reverts to 2004 levels (54.8%) and nothing else changes the Republican presidential nominee will win the state in 2016

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign did not win New Mexico because his Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.

46% of state is Hispanic

Romney lost New Mexico, who has a Republican Governor, by 10 points or 81,000 votes

Romney only captured 21% of the Hispanic vote compared with Bush, who got 40% in 2004

Romneys disgraceful performance was hurt further by the fact that New Mexico former Governor, Gary Johnson, ran as a Libertarian garnering 3.5%

Rafael Ted Cruz can achieve George Bush totals giving him 62,000 additional Hispanics, while the Democrats lose 62,000, would more than offset Romneys 81,000 loss margin

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign did not win Colorado because his Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.

Hispanics made up 14% in 2012 and expected to make up 15% in 2016

Romney only received 23% of Hispanic vote versus 40% for Bush in 2004

Cruz achieving Bush numbers with Hispanics and turning out Republicans makes Colorado, who just elected a conservative Senator, a very achievable target

Cruz would still need to turn out additional married, white people in order to carry state

Cruz positioned to do well with the Libertarians in the state

Looking to 2016

242 296

Hillary 2016 Strategy

MAKE THE RACE ABOUT HISTORY, NOT HER

Hold on to as many African-American voters as she can

Increase turnout amoung single women to offset reduction of African-American vote and potential losses with Hispanics

Republican Must Dos for 2016

Perform better with Latino voters in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada - Target George Bushs average of 40% (he got 56% in Florida)

Shrink the gender gap that has increased to 4% favoring women

Turn out white, married people over the age of 40 by focusing on wedge issues and targeting evangelicals

Republicans win with wedge and magnet that drive their voters to turnout

issues

Reagan 1980: The Economy and National Security

Bush (Atwater South Carolina Conservative) 1988: Willie Horton/Flag Burning *A+

Bush (Baker Establishment Republican) 1992: No Wedge Issue

Bush 2000: Gay Marriage, Restore Honor and Dignity to the White House

Midterms 2010: ObamaCare

Midterms 2014: ObamaCare/Immigration

Every Senator in 2014 ran as a Ted Cruz Republican

Moderate Candidates are Losers

More Conservative c GW Bush (2000)"

GW Bush (2004)"

Reagan (1980)"

Reagan (1984)"

McCain (2008)"

Romney (2012)"

GHW Bush (1988)"

GHW Bush (1992)"

Ford (1976)"

Dole (1996)"

0" 12" 23" 35" 46" 58"

Rove won for Bush by driving Evangelical turnout Now he loses by doing the opposite = winning campaign Exception was when Bush 41 ran as a hard conservative in 1988 with Atwater and Reagans help

The Establishment Never Learns

Operate under the Media-created myth that moderates win elections

Give away through candidate selection key wedge and magnet issues that are must-haves in order to drive turnout and win

Successful Wedge Issues in the past have been:

- Willie Horton/flag burning in 1988

- Gay Marriage, Restoring Honor to the White House in 2000

- ObamaCare in 2010 and 2014

In 2012 they chose the one man on the planet who could not take advantage of the most effective wedge issue: ObamaCare

The Establishment Never Learns

For 2016 they have chosen, Jeb Bush. The one person on the planet that forfeits Republicans on every Hillary wedge issue:

- National Security

- Immigration

- Future Not Past

- Common Core

- Foreign Money

Ted Cruz is the only leading candidate who

on has a consistent/strong record the top Clinton wedge issues

Money

Immigration and Common Core Very Important

Common Core

Immigration

Future Not Past

National Security

Foreign

CRUZ

BUSH

NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

HUCKABEE

NO

-

NO

PAUL

NO

RUBIO

NO

WALKER

NO

NO

White Vote Shrank in 2012

Evangelicals are not voting

Evan euca I Voters

Number of

# of Evenfelloel Voters % of Eleotorete

#of CVAPEvangelicals # of Evangelical Voters who

sta ed tiome

22.1 million 21% 74.5

million

52.4 million

25.7 million 21%

79.4 million

53.7 million

30.2 mill ion

23% 83.2

million

53 million

29. 7 million 23%

86. 7 million

57 million

In 2004 Rove drove conservative and religious voter growth to new highs but that

slowed and stopped progress

POPULATION -0.1 .

. ...:

...

...: ../........................

-0.3 .CONSERVATIVES....... .

.

. . .

.: : .. :

-0.4 .

....

.........

.

. .

-0.5

RELIGIOUS.

0

. '96

. .l .: O -0.6

'04 '08 '12

The only time Republicans got more of the popular vote since 1988.

WHERE WE ARE TODAY

GOP NOMINATION CONSIDERATION II

METHODOLOGY

! 739 autodial phone interviews conducted nationwide among likely Republican primary voters

! Conducted May 15-16, 2015

! Margin of error is +/- 3.6%

! Comparative data results pulled from February 2015 polling

OF NOTE

! This is a baseline study of Republican primary voter attitudes. The Republican field and attitudes of primary voters are dynamic and we fully expect the underlying structure of the electorate to continue evolving in the coming months.

! Successful vote coalitions among the early primary and caucuses may likely only require 20-40% support.

! This survey was conducted by TargetPoint Consulting for its own use and was not conducted on behalf of any candidate or associated organization.

CANDIDATE AWARENESS AND CONSIDERATION

Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is unlikely you would

ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a candidate were

considered Aware, while those who selected 9 were considered Not Aware. Total

February Awareness 1-7 Aware 9 Not Aware

94 JEB BUSH

MIKE HUCKABEE 92

RAND PAUL 89

CHRIS CHRISTIE 89

MARCO RUBIO 85

TED CRUZ 80

- DONALD TRUMP

RICK PERRY

86

RICK SANTORUM 83

SCOTT WALKER 75

BEN CARSON 70

LINDSEY GRAHAM -

BOBBY JINDAL 69

CARLY FIORINA 50

JOHN KASICH 59 57 43

66 35

69 32

70 30

75 25

75 26

81 19

82 19

84 17

84 16

86 14

86 14

90 10

91 9

94 7

CANDIDATE AWARENESS

Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is

unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9.

Mean Scores 1 Certainly Consider 2-3 Consider 4+9 Neutral 5-6 Not Consider 7 Certainly Not Consider

MARCO RUBIO 2.99

SCOTT WALKER 3.01

JEB BUSH 3.57

MIKE HUCKABEE 3.48

TED CRUZ 3.51

BEN CARSON 3.31

RAND PAUL 3.80

RICK PERRY 3.90

3.88 BOBBY JINDAL

RICK SANTORUM 4.08

CHRIS CHRISTIE 4.42

CARLY FIORINA 4.09

JOHN KASICH 4.00

DONALD TRUMP 4.91

LINDSEY GRAHAM 4.63

*Chart order is by total 1-3 consideration.

3 13 45 17 22

5 15 29 16 35

7 15 59 11 9

5 20 52 11 13

6 23 31 18 22

6 26 39 16 13

6 26 46 12 9

6 31 38 15 11

11 34 26 17 13

19 29 37 8 8

15 33 31 10 12

18 32 24 14 12

18 33 21 13 15

24 29 37 5 5

22 39 24 9 7

CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION

Comparing the total awareness of each candidate to their 1-3 consideration score we see candidates who have higher awareness and popularity overall (Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, Paul, and Cruz) and we see that a group clustered toward the bottom left quadrant that are less unknown.

CONSIDERATION CONVERSION RATE

WELL-KNOWN LESS POPULAR CANDIDATES WELL-KNOWN TOP CHOICES 100 Paul Bush

Huckabee

Cruz

Christie Perry

Santorum

90 Trump Rubio

80 Walker Graham Jindal

Carson 70 Fiorina

60 Kasich

50

40

30

20

10

LESS KNOWN/UNDERPERFORMING POPULAR LOWER-RECOGNITION 0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Total Consideration % 1-3

*Announced/Unannounced candidates are listed based on current status at the time of the poll and does not account for candidates with end of May and June planned announcements

*Conversion rate was calculated by dividing the total consideration (1-3) score by total awareness 1-7.

Tota

l Aw

aren

ess %

Rubio

71% Walker

71% Carson

64% Cruz

57% Huckabee

55% Bush

54% Paul

50% Jindal

46% Perry

45% Santorum

40% Kasich

39% Fiorina

38% Christie

34% Trump

24% Graham

23%

Unannounced Candidates

Announced Candidates

HIGHEST CONSIDERATION V. AWARENESS

Below is the total consideration (1-3) for each candidate from our February poll and our current May poll.

0 0

Rubio Walker Bush Huckabee Cruz Carson Paul Perry Jindal Santorum Christie Fiorina Kasich Trump* Graham*

*not included in February Poll

FEB

RU

ARY

M

AY

16

20

23 22

25

13

33

29

34 33

35

32

43

37

44 43

47

47

48

43

51 50

54

51

58

53

61

54

COMPARED CONSIDERATIONS

Below is the change in consideration(1-3) for each candidate from our February poll to our May poll.

FIORINA +12

RUBIO +7

CRUZ +5

PAUL +1

CARSON 0

HUCKABEE -1

-1

-1

JINDAL

KASICH

-3

-3

BUSH

SANTORUM

CHRISTIE -4

WALKER -5

PERRY -6

*Lindsey Graham and Donald Trump were not included in February Poll

CHANGE IN CONSIDERATION

reasonable compromises to get things done, or should

compromise, even if things dont get done in the short-run?

Social Conservative

Mainstream

Get Things principles

44

Could Support Any

Libertarian

Unsure

CANDIDATE PREFERENCES

Generally speaking what type of

candidate do you prefer nominating?

FEBRUARY 29

MAY 28

24 25

20 Tea Party

16

14 15

5

6

8

9

Do you think that the Republican nominee, if elected president, should reach out to Democrats and work to find

they try to lead on strong conservative principles and not

Stand by

Done

56

In our February poll, the party was split on this issue.

How would you describe your views in the area of social/fiscal issues?

51

41

34 32

17 12

5 3 2 1 Very Cons

Somewhat Cons

Moderate Somewhat Lib

Very Lib

17#

SOC

IAL

FISC

AL

30% of Republican primary voters are both very socially and very fiscally conservative.

70% are both socially conservative and fiscally conservative.

16% are socially moderate or liberal and fiscally conservative.

ISSUE PREFERENCES

Below is the political breakdown of our designated clusters. The dotted circles represent the clusters from our February polling and the red circles represent where the clusters are now.

Social

Tea Party 17%

Conservatives

19% Moderates Uncommitted

Partisans

Percentage of cluster that chose get things done

Bubble sizes represent relative size of each cluster.

Perc

enta

ge o

f cl

uste

r tha

t is

bot

h ve

ry fi

scal

ly a

nd s

ocia

lly co

nser

vativ

e

Since our February Poll, we no longer

conservatives. Our February group of

We have also seen the equilibrium of

16%

Conservatives see a cluster of mainstream

establishment voters has fragmented into what we show as mainstream

16% moderates and pragmatic partisans.

the party move slightly less Undecided conservative and more pragmatic.

8% Dissatisfied 10%

14% Mainstream

Moderates Pragmatic

UPDATED POLITICAL CLUSTERING

We looked at each candidates total consideration score (1-3) and subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potential growth of each

candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.

Current Derived Ballot Potential Growth

MARCO RUBIO

SCOTT WALKER

TED CRUZ

MIKE HUCKABEE

JEB BUSH

BEN CARSON

RAND PAUL

RICK PERRY

BOBBY JINDAL

RICK SANTORUM

CHRIS CHRISTIE

CARLY FIORINA

JOHN KASICH

DONALD TRUMP

LINDSEY GRAHAM

*Candidates are rank ordered by potential growth.

9 52 9 44 5 43 9 41 11 40 8 39 6 38

35 1 32

30 3 26 0 25

20 18

0 16

POTENTIAL GROWTH

We looked at the top derived ballot scores based on voter preference for a particular nominee: social conservative, mainstream, tea party, any, or libertarian candidate. Below are each of their top 6

choices and the number of undecided voters based on these nominee types.

Social Conservatives Mainstream Tea Party Could Support Any Libertarian

12 19 14 17 23 HUCKABEE BUSH CRUZ RUBIO PAUL

11 11 11 11 12 BUSH RUBIO WALKER WALKER BUSH

10 9 9 10 7 WALKER HUCKABEE CARSON BUSH WALKER

9 8 7 7 6 CARSON WALKER PAUL CARSON CARSON

9 7 7 6 6 RUBIO CARSON HUCKABEE HUCKABEE CHRISTIE

4 7 5 6 5 CRUZ CHRISTIE RUBIO PAUL RUBIO

32 24 27 34 UNDECIDED 32 UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED

BALLOT AND NOMINEE TYPE

TED HAS REAL

GROWTH POTENTIAL

WITH EVANGELICALS

AND LIBERTARIANS.

THIS PRIMARY IS REALLY DIFFERENT.

Schedule is significantly different than past years favors more conservative candidate

The first 14 states (through Super Tuesday) have 574 delegates (83%) that will come from conservative states

At least six well-funded candidates making it very difficult for Establishment to destroy the conservative challenger

The Calendar leans

SOUTH DELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY

South North Total

477

69/o

31 /o

216

693

The Calendar leans

RIGHT DELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY

Conservative

7310

507

Moderate

2710

186

Total

693

The Calendar leans

CRUZ

A number of well-financed candidates

Historically, the Establishment Candidate uses his financial resources to destroy the leading challenger who has already been weakened by the other challenger candidates.

TED IS WELL-POSITIONED

TO WIN THE PRIMARY.

Cruz has been consistently right on the issues that matter most to primary voting blocs.

Sources: " https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates" http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdf " "

http://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htm " http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm "

BUSH

HUCKABEE

CRUZ

PAUL

RUBIO

WALKER

EDUCATION / COMMON CORE

IMMIGRATION

SOCIAL / RELIGIOUS ISSUES

STRONG NATIONAL DEFENSE

DEFICIT / GOVT SPENDING

OBAMACARE

SECOND AMENDMENT

Cruz campaign has the most complete portfolio of Assets

Small Dollar Donors

Large Super PAC

Social Media Followers

Grass Roots Support

Sophisticated Data Analytics

CRUZ

BUSH

?

NO

NO

HUCKABEE

NO

NO

PAUL

NO

RUBIO

WALKER

?

?

Cruz in best position to run an Obama caliber campaign in 2016

A proven data-driven infrastructure that is a small dollar fundraising and voter ID juggernaut. Eight full-time data scientists on staff.

Raised $10 million from 90,000 donors in the first 100 days of campaign

Campaign managed by great executives not people who can write and produce TV commercials

Creative/Messaging Team led by one of the worlds premier firms hired by the Establishment to rebrand the Party - They want to work with Ted. The creative minds behind the Salvation Army Campaign, Chick-fil-A, Home Depot, Paul Harvey I am a farmer Superbowl ad

Cruz in best position to run an Obama caliber campaign in 2016

Cruz has set a new standard for social media for Republicans both in the quantity of follower but just as importantly the effectiveness of the interactions.

Has 8 million email addresses

Grassroots organization is nationwide not just Iowa the only candidate even close is Paul

Great communicator that can appeal to young people

Ted showing great strength in must-win South Carolina

Straw Poll Results

Greenville and Spartanburg victories are most impressive as they are two largest and most populated GOP counties in the state

Greenville

Anderson County

Spartanburg

Aiken

Dorchester

Cruz

28%

27%

32%

36%

30% Bush

5%

1%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Carson

9%

1%

N/A

N/A

16%

Graham

3%

6%

N/A

N/A

4%

Huckabee

3%

9%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Paul

3%

1%

7%

6%

7%

Rubio

8%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Walker

22%

25%

30%

32%

25%

Enhancing Cruz Brand

A powerful biography comes out in late June

Associated book tour

Richards Group hired along with a team of branding experts

Keep the Promise rolls out a positive campaign in key primary states around the first debate

Real upside potential - Ted is polling very low with Evangelicals as many are unaware of his deep faith

3 of the Top 10 Donors on Ted Cruz

Top Individual Donors to Conservative Super PACs 2012

Rank Donor Total Given 1 Adelson, Sheldon & Miriam $91,780,000 2 Simmons, Harold $25,665,000 3 Perry, Robert $23,450,000 4 RickeFs, John $13,050,000 5 Mercer, Robert $5,409,354 6 Thiel, Peter $4,735,000 7 Childs, John $4,225,000 8 Perenchio, A Jerrold & Margaret $4,100,000 9 Rowling, Robert $3,635,000 10 McNair, Robert $3,175,000

To elect a principled conservative, donors cant wait until November or December to decide

Television rates start to skyrocket in December making it impossible for candidates to define themselves and their views so therefore are defined by the Media

By January there is limited space at any price

In September the major news organizations will decide which reporters will cover which candidates the stronger the candidate is with money is the key factor to get the most well-known reporters which translates into earned media

Fundraising success breeds fundraising success

The competition for grassroots leaders is intense and fundraising momentum is a key driver

CAN H E

WIN?