Critican Insights on Maine Tracking Survey — Spring 2015

172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine

www.criticalinsights.com

1October 2010May 2010

Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey

~ Spring 2015 ~

Full Service Market Research and Public Opinion Polling

172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland, Maine 04101


Residents Views on Politics, the Economy, & Issues Facing the State of Maine

April 2015

April 2015




Introduction



3

Background & Methodology

Each Spring and Fall, Critical Insights conducts the Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey, a comprehensive, statewide public opinion survey of registered voters which covers a variety of topics of interest to business, government, and the general public.

Critical Insights on MaineTM has been documenting the attitudes, perceptions, and preferences of Maines residents for over 19 years, making it the longest running, consistently administered Tracking Survey in the Northeast.

In addition to general interest items (the results of which are released to the media as a public service) the survey also includes a number of proprietary items included in the poll on behalf of sponsoring entities, with results of those items released only to those sponsors.

For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a total of 601 telephone interviews (including cell phones) with randomly selected voters across the state between March 24th and March 29th, 2015.

With a sample of 601 interviews, results presented here have an associated sampling error of +/- 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

All interviews were conducted with self-reported registered voters; final data were statistically weighted according to relevant demographics to reflect the voter base in Maine.

On average, the entire survey instrument including both general interest items and all proprietary subscriber items was 17 minutes in administrative length.

This document presents findings from general interest items included in the current round of measurement, with comparisons made as appropriate to results from past iterations of the Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey.

April 2015




Research Highlights




The Economy



6

Economic concerns persist as the most pressing issues among Mainers, with the economy in general and unemployment worries, respectively, topping the list of perceived issues facing Maine.

Consistent with findings over the last two years, roughly half of Maine voters are concerned with one of these economic-focused issues.

Fall'04

Spr'05

Fall'05

Spr'06

Fall'06

Spr'07

Fall'07

Spr'08

Fall'08

Spr'09

Fall'09

Spr'10

Fall'10

Spr'11

Fall'11

Spr'12

Fall'12

Spr'13

Fall'13

Spr'14

Fall'14

Spr'15

Economy 14 17 16 12 16 13 16 36 59 35 31 33 33 31 35 36 44 26 30 22 31 25

Unemployment 25 23 17 17 14 17 17 6 12 27 11 27 30 30 44 27 20 24 18 23 20 21

Taxes 25 21 21 20 34 24 18 10 8 7 10 9 8 5 4 4 3 7 5 7 4 8

Education 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 2 1 3 3 7 6 3 4 3 4 8 5 5 7 7

Health care 13 7 12 9 12 14 15 5 7 7 17 7 5 7 3 7 4 5 14 6 3 5

Welfare programs 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 8 4 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Per

cen

t

In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine today? *

* Top trended responses shown.

April 2015



7

Though job loss remains the leading near-term financial concern for Mainers, it has dropped 9 percentage points since last Fall to be more consistent with prior measurements. Concerns about taxes have nearly doubled since six months ago, while remaining responses are highly fragmented, suggesting that a fairly diverse set of financial worries are also weighing on the minds of Mainers.

Fall '10 Spr '11 Fall '11 Spr '12 Fall '12 Spr '13 Fall '13 Spr '14 Fall '14 Spr '15

Job loss 32 17 25 20 18 16 16 14 27 18

Taxes 15 4 5 6 7 12 7 9 8 14

Health care 11 10 9 11 15 15 25 11 6 10

Gov't spending/Debt 5 5 8 6 7 9 6 8 6 10

Economy 12 7 13 9 10 7 8 9 10 9

Cost of living 20 19 18 21 19 16 15 12 6 8

Price of gas/utilities 12 32 16 21 22 11 9 8 4 8

Education 7 5 6 7 5 11 6 5 4 7

0

10

20

30

40

50

Per

cen

tAs you think about the next 6 months what economic or financial situations concern you the MOST? *

* Top tracked responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.

April 2015



8

In results identical to one year ago, and a significant decline from Fall 2014, one-quarter of Maine voters feel we will see economic improvement over the coming year.

More than half of voters believe things will remain roughly the same into 2016, an uptick from six months ago.

Fall'04

Spr'05

Fall'05

Spr'06

Fall'06

Spr'07

Fall'07

Spr'08

Fall'08

Spr'09

Fall'09

Spr'10

Fall'10

Spr'11

Fall'11

Spr'12

Fall'12

Spr'13

Fall'13

Spr'14

Fall'14

Spr'15

Better 30 14 12 17 18 16 12 15 35 46 43 43 35 34 30 41 41 34 30 25 33 25

About the same 41 33 33 35 44 46 35 26 26 27 34 33 38 36 41 37 27 40 45 51 50 55

Worse 25 51 53 44 31 37 49 55 33 24 20 19 20 24 25 17 10 22 22 21 14 19

0

20

40

60

80

100

Per

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t

Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12 months, do you think the economy will be . . .

April 2015




National Politics



10

In results consistent with the nation as a whole, and an increase of seven percentage points compared to six months ago, one-third of Mainers claim to have a positive sense of where the country is headed. A majority still see things headed in the wrong direction.

33 37 3225

45

3017 19

33 3041 38 34

28 30 26 2818

29 26 3033

59 47 5960

52

45 74 66

5955

50 53 59

5462

6469

42

6559

62 53

816

915

3

25

915

814

9 9 719

8 103

40

615

814

0

20

40

60

80

100

Per

cen

t

Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know

All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

^^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, April 13-17, 2012

^^^ Source: AP-GfK poll, Oct. 19-23, 2012

# Source: CBS News/New York Times poll, April 24-28, 2013

## Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Sept. 5-8, 2013

***Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, March 11, 13-14, 2010

**Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Oct. 14-18, 2010

*Source: AP-GfK poll. May 5-9, 2011

^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Oct. 6-10, 2011

April 2015

Optimism about the countrys direction is most acute among higher SES Mainers as well as

self-reported Democrats.

Among the Mainers who are pessimistic on the countrys

direction, feelings about heading in the wrong

direction are strongest among lower SES Mainers and

Republican voters.

### Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, April 24-27, 2014

~ Source: CBS News Poll. Oct. 3-6, 2014

~~ Source: CBS News Poll. March 21-24, 2015



11

Support for both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination for President among Maine voters is merely half of that reported for the nation as a whole.

April 2015

Im going to mention a number of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for President in 2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016. If you dont know the name, please just say so.

86

46

13

47

21 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

US * Maine Residents

Per

cen

t

Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name Unsure

* Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, March 1-5, 2015

54

25

40

64

34

2 7

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t


HILLARY CLINTON JOE BIDEN

Support for Clinton is predominant among women and more highly-educated and higher-income Mainers.

Not surprisingly, views on all potential candidates tend to split according to party lines.



12

Elizabeth Warren garners one-quarter of Maine voter support for the Democratic nomination for President, compared to fully half of US residents. Large blocs of both Maine and US residents are unfamiliar with either Warren or Bernie Sanders.

April 2015


51

27

17

35

2931

3 6

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t



2114

21 35

5446

4 5

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t


ELIZABETH WARREN BERNIE SANDERS

The likeliest supporters of Warren include the 65 and older age band, higher SES Mainers, and the 1st Congressional District.



13

There is a significant lack of awareness among both Maine and US residents for either Jim Webb or Martin OMalley.

April 2015


156

24

24

5767

4 4

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t



114

2021

6772

2 3

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t


JIM WEBB MARTIN OMALLEY



14

Opinions are evenly split among Maine voters in terms of whether they would be proud to have Hillary Clinton as President, while US residents are a bit more enthusiastic.

April 2015

Thinking of the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesnt apply to Hillary Clinton:

Someone you would be proud to have as President.

57

45

42

48

17

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t

Applies Doesn't apply Unsure

* Source: CNN/ORC Poll, March 13-15, 2015

Again, women and more highly-educated Mainers tend

to be more supportive of Clinton than others, as do

Democratic voters.



15

Again, Maine voters are divided in their views on Hillary Clinton using personal email while she served as Secretary of State, though a sizable bloc do not offer an opinion.

April 2015

Do you think that Hillary Clinton did or did not do anything wrong by using a personal email address and home-based server to send and receive emails while she served as Secretary of State?

5140

47

44

2

16

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t

Did something wrong Did not do anything wrong Unsure

Men, lower SES Mainers, and GOP voters have a greater likelihood of saying Clinton was wrong to use personal

email.

Conversely, subgroups more likely to feel she did nothing

wrong include women, higher SES Mainers, and self-reported Democrats.




Maine Politics



17

In results consistent with the Fall 2014 iteration of Critical Insights on MaineTM, fully 4-in-10 Mainers currently have a positive sense of where Maine is headed, though 47% do not (+5 percentage points since six months ago).

All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

34 30 3023 23

40 3742

3035

18

37 40

59

52 49 62

45

40 4240

44

47

34

4247

7

17 2115

31

19 21 1826

16

48

2113

0

20

40

60

80

100

Spring'09

Fall'09

Spring'10

Fall'10

Spring'11

Fall'11

Spring'12

Fall'12

Spring'13

Fall'13

Spring'14

Fall'14

Spring'15

Per

cen

t

Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know

April 2015

Views on the direction Maine is headed tend to split according to

party lines and gender.

Indeed, 59% of Democrats claim the state is off on the wrong track (vs.

30% of Republicans who feel similarly) and 53% of Republicans

believe Maine is headed in the right direction (vs. 31% of Democrats).

Additionally, 45% of men believe the state is headed in the right

direction (vs. 36% of women), while 51% of women feel Maine is off on the wrong track (vs. 41% of men).



18

* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.

Why do you say that? *

April 2015

Right Direction (n=240)

Good Governor/Governor doing good job 31%

Gradual improvement in economy 30%

Balancing budget 16%

General optimism 11%Right direction

40%Wrong track

47%

Mixed/Don't know21%


For the 40% of Maine voters who feel the state is headed in the right direction, one-third attribute this belief to Gov. LePage and his policies, and another one-third to economic improvement.



19

* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.

Why do you say that? *

April 2015

Wrong Track (n=280)

Bad Governor/Disapprove of Governor 36%

Partisan politics 16%

Bad economy 9%

No jobs/Job outlook bleak 7%

Program cuts/MaineCare cuts 4%

Over taxing/Over spending/Debt 4%


Right direction40%

Wrong track47%

Mixed/Don't know21%

However, among the 47% of voters who feel Maine is off on the wrong track, Gov. LePage and his policies play a contrasting role, with 36% blaming the governor for this sense that Maine is on a downward trajectory as a state.



20

Governor LePages job performance is currently at a 41% approval rating, consistent with results observed previously.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor LePage is handling his job as governor of Maine?

31

47

43

42

37

39

39

45

41

54

40

48

47

53

53

49

49

48

15

12

9

12

10

8

12

6

11

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Spr '11

Fall '11

Spring '12

Fall '12

Spring '13

Fall '13

Spring '14

Fall '14

Spring '15

Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused

April 2015

Support for Gov. LePage continues to be strongest among men (49%), residents of Northern

Maine (50%), and Republican voters (75%).

Disapproval tends to be most acute among women (55%),

Southern (54%) and DowneastMainers (53%), and self-reported

Democrats (75%).




Other Issues



22

More than half of Maine voters polled disagree with Governor LePages proposal to pay higher reimbursements to communities spending less on General Assistance, versus one-third who agree.

April 2015

General Assistance, administered by towns and cities and partly reimbursed by the State, provides short-term help for basic needs such as food, shelter, and medicine for people who do not qualify for other public assistance.

Do you agree or disagree with Governor LePages two-year state budget proposal which would pay higher reimbursement rates to cities and towns that spend less on General Assistance? Under this proposal, Portland, Bangor, and Lewiston are projected to lose funding.

Agree35%

Disagree54%

Don't know11%

There are significant differences for this issue

across party lines:

56% of GOP voters agree with LePages proposal (vs. only 18% of Democratic voters

who feel similarly), and 73% of Democrats disagree (vs. only 29% of Republicans).



23

Views on whether the City of Portland mismanaged General Assistance funds are split, and 37% of Maine voters declined to offer an opinion.

April 2015

Do you think that Portland has mismanaged the money from the General Assistance program to help the Citys homeless population?

Yes29%

No34%

Don't know37%

Residents of Maines 1st

Congressional District are significantly more likely than

those in CD 2 to state that Portland mismanaged the money

(35% vs. 22%, respectively).

Additionally, Republican voters have a greater tendency to say

the City mismanaged funds (36%), while Democrats are more likely to state they did not (48%).



24October 2010

24

May 2010

Sample Profile



25

Stated Voter Political Affiliation

April 2015

Democrat34%

Republican27%

Unenrolled/Other32%

DK/Ref.7%



26

Socio-Demographic Profile

April 2015

4753

12

29

1823

1720

24

35

18

0

20

40

60

80

100Pe

rcen

t

Gender Age

Education



27

Residential Profile

April 2015

60

1419

7

22

1418

36

0

20

40

60

80

100

None One Two Three ormore

< $35K $35K to

Documents

Critican Insights on Maine Tracking Survey — Spring 2015