CI Tracking Poll Maine

172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine

www.criticalinsights.com1

October 2010May 2010

Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey

~ Fall 2014 ~

Full Service Market Research and Public Opinion Polling

172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor � Portland, Maine 04101

www.criticalinsights.com

Residents’ Views on Politics, the Economy, & Issues Facing the State of Maine

October 2014




Introduction



Background & Methodology• Each Spring and Fall, Critical Insights conducts the Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey, a

comprehensive, statewide public opinion survey of registered voters which covers a variety of topics of interest to business, government, and the general public.

• Critical Insights on MaineTM has been documenting the attitudes, perceptions, and preferences of Maine’s residents for over 18 years, making it the longest running, consistently administered Tracking Survey in the Northeast.– In addition to general interest items (the results of which are released to the media as a public service) the survey

also includes a number of proprietary items included in the poll on behalf of sponsoring entities, with results of those items released only to those sponsors.

• For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a total of 606 telephone interviews (including cell phones) with randomly selected likely voters across the state between September 24th

and September 30th, 2014.– With a sample of 606 interviews, results presented here have an associated sampling error of +/- 4 percentage

points at the 95% confidence level.– All interviews were conducted with self-reported registered and likely voters; final data were statistically

weighted according to relevant demographics to reflect the voter base in Maine.– The reported sample size on some items may be less than 606 due to respondent refusal on selected items.– On average, the entire survey instrument – including both general interest items and all proprietary subscriber

items – was 20 minutes in administrative length.

• This document presents findings from general interest items included in the current round of measurement, with comparisons made – as appropriate – to results from past iterations of the Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey.

October 2014




Research Highlights




The Economy



Economic concerns persist as the most pressing issues among Mainers, with the economy in general and unemployment worries, respectively, topping the list of perceived issues facing Maine.

Consistent with findings over the last year, roughly half of Maine voters are concerned with one of these economic-focused issues.

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Economy 14 17 16 12 16 13 16 36 59 35 31 33 33 31 35 36 44 26 30 22 31Unemployment 25 23 17 17 14 17 17 6 12 27 11 27 30 30 44 27 20 24 18 23 20Education 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 2 1 3 3 7 6 3 4 3 4 8 5 5 7Taxes 25 21 21 20 34 24 18 10 8 7 10 9 8 5 4 4 3 7 5 7 4Welfare programs 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 8 4Health care 13 7 12 9 12 14 15 5 7 7 17 7 5 7 3 7 4 5 14 6 3

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In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine today? *

* Top trended responses shown.

October 2014



Job loss has nearly doubled since last Spring to emerge as the leading near-term financial concern for Mainers, the highest it has been since the Fall 2011 measurement. Remaining responses are highly fragmented, suggesting that a fairly diverse set of financial worries are also weighing on the minds of Mainers.

Fall '10 Spr '11 Fall '11 Spr '12 Fall '12 Spr '13 Fall '13 Spr '14 Fall '14Job loss 32 17 25 20 18 16 16 14 27Economy 12 7 13 9 10 7 8 9 10Taxes 15 4 5 6 7 12 7 9 8Cost of living 20 19 18 21 19 16 15 12 6Health care 11 10 9 11 15 15 25 11 6Gov't spending/Debt 5 5 8 6 7 9 6 8 6Price of gas/utilities 12 32 16 21 22 11 9 8 4Education 7 5 6 7 5 11 6 5 4

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As you think about the next 6 months what economic or financial situations concern you the MOST? *

* Top tracked responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.

October 2014



In a significant uptick from Spring 2014, one-third of Maine voters now feel the economy will improve over the coming year.

In results nearly identical to six months ago, fully half of voters believe things will remain roughly the same into 2015; given the number of residents currently citing economic concerns, the notion of steadiness in the state of the economy is a troubling finding.

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Better 30 14 12 17 18 16 12 15 35 46 43 43 35 34 30 41 41 34 30 25 33About the same 41 33 33 35 44 46 35 26 26 27 34 33 38 36 41 37 27 40 45 51 50Worse 25 51 53 44 31 37 49 55 33 24 20 19 20 24 25 17 10 22 22 21 14

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Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12 months, do you think the economy will be . . .

October 2014




National Politics



With figures that have continued to trend a bit below national averages, President Obama has remained below majority favorability among Maine voters over the last three iterations of Critical Insights on MaineTM.

Perspectives on the President continue to be sharply divided along party lines.

66 61 56 56 5547 53 52 54

4356

4755 51 53

46 5245 48 44

2925 37

2941

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45

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4339

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4249

46

514

715

412

515

211

511

29

4 102

133

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Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/refused

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama?

**** Source: Daily Kos poll, May 18-21, 2009

*** Source: Daily Kos poll, Oct. 19-22, 2009

** Source: Daily Kos poll, May 3-6, 2010

*Source: Daily Kos poll, April 28-May 1, 2011

Support for the President continues to be strongest

among residents of Southern Maine (50%) and the 1st District

(49%), more well-educated Mainers (59%), and self-

reported Democrats (74%).

Disapproval tends to be highest among men (52%), residents of Northern Maine (55%), those in the 2nd District (52%), and self-

reported Republicans (81%).

^ Source: ABC-GfK poll, Oct. 13-17, 2011

^^ Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, April 11-15, 2012

^^^ Source: Gallup Poll, April 11-14, 2013

^^^^ Source: Gallup Poll, Sept. 15-16, 2013

October 2014

# Source: Gallup Poll, Feb. 6-9, 2014## Source: McClatchy-Marist Poll. Sept. 24-29, 2014.



Unlike last Spring when a large bloc of respondents expressed mixed views about the direction of the nation, Mainers are currently more certain about their opinions. In results consistent with Fall 2013, only one-quarter of Mainers claim to have a positive sense of where the country is headed, while a majority see things headed in the wrong direction.

33 37 32 25

4530

17 1933 30

41 38 34 28 30 26 2818

29 26

59 47 5960

52

45 74 66

5955

50 53 5954

62 6469

42

6559

816 9 15

3

259 15 8

14 9 9 719

8 10 3

40

615

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Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know

All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Oct. 6-10, 2011^^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, April 13-17, 2012^^^ Source: AP-GfK poll, Oct. 19-23, 2012

***Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, March 11, 13-14, 2010**Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Oct. 14-18, 2010*Source: AP-GfK poll. May 5-9, 2011

October 2014

Optimism about the country’s direction is most acute among more highly-educated (31%)

and wealthier (38%) Mainers, as well as self-reported

Democrats (45%).

Among the 6-in-10 Mainers who are bullish on the

country’s direction, feelings about heading in the wrong

direction are strongest among less highly-educated (70%)

Mainers and Republican voters (83%).

# Source: CBS News/New York Times poll, April 24-28, 2013## Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Sept. 5-8, 2013### Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, April 24-27, 2014

~ Source: CBS News Poll. Oct. 3-6, 2014



* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.

Why do you say that? *

October 2014

Wrong Track (n=360)

Dysfunction in Congress/Leadership/Government

18%

Bad economy/No jobs 15%

Obama’s leadership/ideas are the problem 14%

Overall/In general things are going downhill 13%

Foreign policy/We help other countries, not our own

12%

Right direction26%

Wrong track59%

Mixed/Don't know15%

Among the majority who feel the country is on the wrong track, results are fragmented. Reasons cited focus on what is seen as government dysfunction, a poor economy, and opposition to the President’s policies, including foreign policy. All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?



Among the 26% of Maine voters who feel the country is headed in the right direction, reasons cited are centered on a belief that the economy is improving and that the President is providing good leadership.



October 2014

Right Direction (n=160)

Economy improving/Unemployment down 29%

Overall/In general things are improving 21%

President Obama making good decisions/providing good leadership

20%

Believe in our country/Democracy/Optimism 5%

Right direction26%

Wrong track59%

Mixed/Don't know15%

All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?




Maine Politics



Doubling from six months ago to results consistent with the Fall 2013 iteration of Critical Insights on MaineTM, more than one-third of Mainers currently have a positive sense of where Maine is headed, but 42% do not (+8 percentage points since Spring 2014).All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

34 30 3023 23

40 37 4230 35

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52 49 62

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40 4240

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Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know

October 2014

Views on the direction Maine is headed tend to split according to

party lines, with 56% of Democrats claiming the state is off on the

wrong track (vs. just 25% of Republicans who feel similarly) and

57% of Republicans believing Maine is headed in the right

direction (vs. only 23% of Democrats).





October 2014

Wrong Track (n=255)

Bad Governor/Disapprove of Governor 40%

No jobs/Job outlook bleak 13%

Bad economy 8%

Partisan politics/Little cooperation 5%

Maine not business friendly 5%

All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

Right direction37%

Wrong track42%

Mixed/Don't know48%

However, among the 42% of voters who feel Maine is off on the wrong track, Gov. LePage and his policies play a contrasting role, with 4-in-10 blaming the governor for this sense that Maine is on a downward trajectory as a state.





October 2014

Right Direction (n=223)

Good Governor/Governor doing good job 34%

General optimism 16%

Gradual improvement in economy 15%

Welfare reform 10%

Right direction37%

Wrong track42%

Mixed/Don't know48%

All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

For the 37% of Maine voters who feel the state is headed in the right direction, one-third attribute this belief to Gov. LePage and his policies.



Governor LePage’s job performance is currently at a 45% approval rating (+6 percentage points since Spring 2014), the highest it has been over the past two years.Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor LePage is handling his job as governor of Maine?

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Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused

October 2014

Support for Gov. LePage continues to be strongest among men (52%),

residents of Northern Maine (56%), those in the 2nd District (51%), and

Republican voters (82%).

Disapproval tends to be most acute among Southern Mainers (57%), the 1st District (55%), and self-reported

Democrats (76%).


www.criticalinsights.com19October 2014

Support for Senator King is strongest among those in the 45-

64 age band (64%), the most highly educated (65%) and wealthiest (67%) Mainers,

residents of Southern Maine (62%), those in the 1st District

(62%), and self-reported Democrats (76%).

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In a slight change since one year ago, 58% of Mainers polled approve of the job Angus King is doing as U.S. Senator (-5 percentage points). One-fifth are still unsure.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Senator Angus King is handling his job as US Senator?



Support for Senator Collins is highest among those in the 45-64 age band (69%),

the wealthiest (69%) Mainers, residents of

Northern Maine (74%), and Republican voters (75%).

Approval for the way Susan Collins is handling her job as U.S. Senator is currently at 64% (-5 percentage points since Fall 2013), while 27% disapprove of her performance.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Senator Susan Collins is handling her job as US Senator?

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The gubernatorial race has U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud polling in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Paul LePage, with each garnering close to 40% of the projected vote.

If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were held tomorrow, would you vote for…

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for…

Which candidate are you leaning toward?

October 2014

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Independent, Eliot Cutler

Democrat, MichaelMichaud

Republican, Paul LePage

Percent

Definitely Probably Leaning



Demographically, LePage has an advantage over Michaud among men and the 18 to 64 age range; meanwhile, Michaud’s definite support is stronger among women and with the oldest (65+) portion of the electorate.If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were held tomorrow, would you vote for…

October 2014

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18 2016

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Definitely Michaud Definitely LePage Definitely Cutler

ACCORDING TO CORE DEMOGRAPHICS: Definites (n=417)



Among voters who have definitely decided on their preferred gubernatorial choice, Michaud and LePage are virtually tied in the 1st

Congressional District, while LePage holds a dramatic 16 percentage point advantage over Michaud in the 2nd CD.If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were held tomorrow, would you vote for…

October 2014

3741

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ACCORDING TO CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Definites (n=417)



Among Mainers who definitely know which candidate they will vote for, those who are more pessimistic about the broader economy have a much greater tendency to support LePage, who leads both Michaud and Cutler by a wide margin.If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were held tomorrow, would you vote for…

October 2014

3745

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ACCORDING TO PERCEPTIONS OF THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE: Definites (n=417)



Democrat Chellie Pingree garners just over half of the projected vote to lead the 1st Congressional District race, followed by Republican Isaac Misiuk with 19% and Independent Richard Murphy with 10%.

In the 2nd District, Republican Bruce Poliquin has a slight advantage over Democrat Emily Cain (41% vs. 36%, respectively), while Independent Blaine Richardson trails with 6% of the projected vote.

Now turning to the Congressional Races, if the election were held tomorrow, would you vote for…

October 2014

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Don't know

Independent, RichardMurphy

Republican, IsaacMisiuk

Democrat, ChelliePingree

Percent

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Don't know

Independent, Blaine Richardson

Democrat, Emily Cain

Republican, Bruce Poliquin

Percent

CD1 (n=311) CD2 (n=295)




Voter Preferences



Stated Voter Political Affiliation

October 2014

Democrat36%

Republican30%

Unenrolled/Other27%

DK/Ref.7%

In what political party are you registered to vote?



Stated Voter Plans for November 4th

October 2014

Do you think you’ll vote in person at your polling place on Election Day, or vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in/absentee ballot?

Vote in person82%

Early voting/absentee

15%

Don't know/Refused

3%




Other Issues



More than 6-in-10 Mainers claim to be at least somewhat satisfied with the quality of education K-12 students are receiving today in Maine, while about one-third are dissatisfied.

October 2014

Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality of education students receive in kindergarten through grade 12 in Maine today? Would you say…

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23

94

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Completelysatisfied

Somewhatsatisfied

Somewhatdissatisfied

Completelydissatisfied

Don’t know

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NET DISSATISFIED32%

NET SATISFIED63%

Overall satisfaction tends to be greatest in Southern

Maine (69%) and among the wealthiest Mainers (70%).

Dissatisfaction is most prevalent among women

(36%), lower-income Mainers (41%), and

Coastal/Downeast Maine residents (39%).



Agree20% Disagree

71%

Don't know9%

Even respondents more likely to agree to the fee –those in the 45 to 64 age band and higher-income

households – still overwhelming oppose the

fee by more than a 2:1 margin.

Fully 7-in-10 residents disagree with the idea that all of Maine’s telephone users should pay a fee to subsidize local telephone companies.

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement:

All of Maine’s telephone users – including those who only use a cell phone – should pay a fee on their monthly phone bill to subsidize local telephone companies that provide affordable, basic landline service to residents of Maine.



October 2010

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May 2010

Sample Profile



Socio-Demographic Profile

October 2014

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Gender Age

Education



Residential Profile

October 2014

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15 16

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None One Two Three ormore

< $35K $35K to <$50K

$50K to <$75K

$75K+

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Children in household Household income

Documents

CI Tracking Poll Maine