Crisis Monitor / 1st Quarter Report 2017 Conflict ... · Philippines remains the deadliest ... ten rankings in Q4 2016. ... and strategic infrastructure appears to

Conflict Countries To Watch In 2017

Crisis Monitor / 1st Quarter Report 2017

2Crisis Monitor / Q1 Report 2017

> Table of Contents > Director’s Note > Regional Analysis > Special Focus > Contact Us

Americas

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Asia

> At a Glance


> Director’s Note

“Nearly 50 percent of the 190 victims were released unharmed, while security forces rescued 30 percent. The remaining victims are still in captivity or were killed by their captors.”

Paul AllumDirector – IntelligenceUnity Resources Group

> At a Glance> Director’s Note > Regional Analysis > Special Focus > Contact UsAmericasEuropeAfricaMiddle EastAsia

The number of foreigners kidnapped abroad rose significantly in the first quarter of 2017. Criminal groups were responsible for over half of the abductions. Nearly 50 percent of the 190 victims were released unharmed, while security forces rescued 30 percent. The remaining victims are still in captivity or were killed by their captors. The key takeaway to note is that the Abu Sayyaf Group in the Philippines remains the deadliest kidnapping group having killed seven foreigners since 2016.

Africa was the worst affected region with Libya and Nigeria ranking in the top 10 kidnapping hotspots. The Democratic Republic of the Congo moved into 8th place following two abductions, one of which resulted in the beheading of two foreign captives. The Kamwina Nsapu militia, which has

been fighting the security forces since late last year, was likely to blame. A group of miners is also missing in the east of the DRC.

Migrants and tourists comprised the most targeted groups, collectively accounting for 55 percent of all kidnappings. A mass abduction of tourists in Myanmar attributed to the increase, while migrants remain vulnerable to criminal networks and human trafficking routes in Mexico and Libya.

Somalia and Turkey moved into fifth and seventh place with piracy and criminal groups culpable for the kidnapping of Iranians and Pakistanis. Both countries were outside the top ten rankings in Q4 2016. Notwithstanding the worsening kidnap risk climate, there is an overall deterioration in Somalia where the al Shabaab militant group has accelerated attacks in the capital, Mogadishu. Similarly, terrorism manifested as suicide bombings against tourist areas and strategic infrastructure appears to be transcending attempts by Turkey to minimise the threat.

The kidnapping risk remains insignificant in Europe, although terrorists again targeted France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and at the time of writing, Sweden. Media coverage greatly publicised the incidents, which despite the abhorrent loss of life, were a clear indication that security cooperation on the Continent is having some success in detecting and deterring larger, more sophisticated attacks.

At the same time, the threat of terrorism in Europe will rise as the Islamic State loses further ground in Iraq and Syria. The corollary of this territorial loss is that more battle-hardened foreign fighters are likely to return home, disillusioned, but driven by the same extremist principles with a determination to attack the West.


> At a Glance

Most Affected Regionsin Q1

Most Affected Nationalities in Q1

Most Targeted Groups in Q1

Africa 36%

Asia 31%

Americas 24%

Middle East 8%

Europe 1%

Top 10 Foreigner Kidnapping Hotspots in Q1

Highest Ransom Payments (P) and Demands (D) in Q1

Mexico 44

Myanmar 37

Libya 23

Nigeria 19

Somalia 16

Philippines 12

Turkey 11

DRC 4

Afghanistan 4

South Sudan 3

Cuban 41

Thai 37

Egyptian 13

Pakistani 12

Turkish 10

Migrants 62

Tourists 42

Maritime 35

Education 13

Medical 9

$950,000 USD (D) Nigeria9 Turkish students and teachers

$500,000 USD (P) PhilippinesSouth Korean and Filipino crewmate

$215,000 USD (D) Libya 13 Egyptian labourers

$200,000 USD (D) Turkey Syrian dependant

$190,000 USD (D) Nigeria 2 German academics


>

Country Security Rating INSIGNIFICANT LOW MEDIUM HIGH EXTREME

Fig 2. Regional Risk Map


> Regional Analysis

In line with the previous quarter, Mexico remained the most dangerous country for kidnapping. Colombia, alternatively, fell out of the top 10 hotspots, while Venezuela rose to the second most dangerous country in the Americas.

Americas

> The Americas was the most dangerous region for foreigners in 2016, accounting for 38 percent of all kidnappings. The ongoing political turmoil across the continent ensures the region will remain a high risk for kidnapping, though locals will bear the brunt of the problem.

> In Q1 2017, there were more regional expatriates kidnapped than Westerners in the Americas, with businesspeople and migrants the most targeted groups. In line with long-term trends, kidnappings were overwhelmingly financially motivated and carried out by criminals. In one case, a local man was kidnapped in Colombia after informing assailants that he was a singer. The case highlights the benefits of remaining as low key and discreet as possible when in an unfamiliar environment.

> Looking to Mexico, from 2015 to 2016 the homicide rate grew by 22 percent. Violence was especially high in Colima, which saw a 221 percent increase in murder rates as warring drug gangs fought over territory. With homicides linked to organised crime, violence is

relatively concentrated. Yet deep structural problems in law enforcement, ongoing corruption, and proposed austerity measures ensure a bleak picture going forward.

> Q1 witnessed a decrease in homicides in El Salvador, a trend which has continued since 2016. This reduction can be attributed to two prime factors: firstly, a de facto truce between rival street gangs Barrio 18 and MS13; and secondly, the government’s severe crackdown on their activities. The leadership of both gangs has also reportedly told their members to halt killings. Although the downturn in homicides is welcome news, it is likely only temporary.

> In Colombia, the demobilisation and withdrawal of FARC has created a power vacuum, enabling alternate armed groups and BACRIM (organised criminal gangs) to expand. This quarter, sporadic fighting has occurred over drug routes and for territorial control, such as in Chocó, and there is a heightened potential for violence as territory shifts.

Countries inside Unity’s top ten global kidnapping hotspots

Kidnap flashpoint areas: Caracas (Venezuela), Guerrero (Mexico)

A foreigner was rescued after 3 weeks in captivity in Mexico

2 regional expatriates were killed by their captors in Venezuela and Mexico


1

Killed

Captive

Rescued

Released

Fig 1. Outcomes for Q1 2017

>




> Regional AnalysisEurope

The risk of abduction in Europe remains insignificant. However, Europe continues to experience a level of transient terrorism with intermittent attacks that target crowded areas and popular tourist sites.

> Of the Europeans kidnapped abroad this quarter, the top two most targeted groups were maritime workers at 40 percent and tourists at 15 percent. Pirates and militants represented the greatest threat, jointly responsible for 65 percent of kidnappings, followed by criminals at 20 percent.

> Approximately 70 percent of Europeans were kidnapped in Africa this quarter. Hotspots included Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea, although Central Africa also saw remote workers such as miners and oil workers targeted.

> The terror threat across Europe remains severe, with the recent attack in London highlighting the ongoing threat presented by lone actors. Multiple attacks occurred in Europe this quarter, including attacks at the Louvre, Dusseldorf train station, and Orly airport. Blunt force tactics are favoured by attackers, representing a threat that is low in sophistication but extremely difficult to detect and prevent.

> Inside Europe, two Pakistanis were kidnapped by criminals in Cyprus. They were held to a ransom of $8,500 USD,

although were quickly rescued by police.

> German tourist Jurgen Kantner was executed by the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in February 2017 after spending over three months in captivity. His execution followed the failure to pay a ransom of $10 million USD (reportedly lowered to about $600,000 USD). This demand was the highest made of any European this quarter.

> According to Europol’s SOCTA 2017 report, organised crime is growing more sophisticated. In particular, cybercrime is on the rise with Russia, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and Norway representing the most affected states. This quarter saw the European energy sector under attack by cybercriminals seeking proprietary information.

> In addition, IBM notes that globally, the ransomware attachment per email rate has increased from 0.6 percent to 40 percent over the past year, with more than half of businesses paying scammers. As such, businesses should be aware that there is an increased risk of receiving emails that contain malware.

Fig 1. Europeans Abducted By Region Q1 2017 – the number of Europeans abducted in the Middle East and Europe was insignificant this quarter


0 2 4 6 8

Belgian

British

German

Spanish

Portugese

French

Russian

Swiss

Swede

Ukrainian

Asia Americas Africa

>




> Regional AnalysisAfrica

> Africa witnessed the most abductions of any region this quarter, accounting for 36 percent of total kidnappings. Regional insecurity can be attributed to poor governance and protracted conflicts.

> South Sudan has seen a spate of abductions by anti-government force, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLMIO). Notably, three South Asian oil workers were kidnapped in two separate incidents in Juba and the Upper Nile region and held for three weeks. At this stage, abductions appear to be politically motivated, with the SPLMIO attempting to force the government to cease oil production.

> Pirates succeeded in hijacking a fuel freighter off the coast of Somalia, raising concerns about renewed piracy in the region. Piracy remains contained, yet there is a heightened risk to some ship owners that have taken short cuts both in distance-travelled to economize on fuel and in terms of their security measures.

> Following the abduction of a Swiss missionary last year, a Colombian nun

was kidnapped in south Mali in Q1. The kidnapping suggests that the operational footprint of Islamist militants is growing. A recent merger of several al Qaeda linked groups in West Africa will only see this threat grow.

> Security at OR Tambo airport in Johannesburg, South Africa has again been questioned after a large scale heist. Thieves dressed as policemen managed to enter a restricted area of the airport and seize over $1.5 million USD in cash. The complexity of the crime, which included bypassing multiple security measures, indicates weak and ineffectual security and the possibility that insider information assisted in the theft.

> INTERPOL and Trend Micro have found a significant growth in cyber crime, particularly cyber fraud, against businesses and individuals in West Africa. Most of these attacks remain relatively unsophisticated, with many reliant upon social engineering. With a year-on-year increase, however, both the volume and sophistication of attacks will undoubtedly rise.

Compared to last quarter, kidnappings in Africa increased by just over 90 percent. Hotspots included Libya, Nigeria and Somalia, while the greatest threat to the region originated from militants.

Fig 1. Percentage Kidnapping Incidents Q1 2017

Countries inside Unity’s top ten global kidnapping hotspots

Kidnap flashpoint areas: Somali Coast, Kasai (DRC)

8 Filipino nurses were released after 1 year 7 months after being held captive by ISIS in Libya


Most targeted groups: maritime, followed by migrants

5

33%

27%

23%

7%

5%

3%

1%

1%

Libya

Nigeria

Somalia

DRC

South Sudan

Mali

Mozambique

Chad

>




> Regional AnalysisMiddle East

> The captivity period for victims held by criminals ranged from a few hours to 3 weeks this quarter, reflecting a prevailing trend for short duration kidnappings by criminals. Ransom demands were also relatively low, averaging about $22,400 USD.

> Following Unity’s increase of Turkey’s country security rating from medium to high risk last quarter, the security situation remains potentially unstable. Concurrently, this increased threat saw 79 percent of regional kidnappings occur in Turkey.

> Militants kidnapped a South African photojournalist in Syria in January. He had been working for an aid group and was near the Turkish border when he was abducted by gunmen. No group has claimed responsibility.

> A second proof of life video was released in January for an Australian aid worker kidnapped in Sanaa, Yemen. His captors are seeking an unspecified ransom payment. Proof of life videos generally signal a desire for negotiations to progress.

> In January, the Lebanese army foiled a suspected Islamic State suicide attack in a popular area in Beirut, Lebanon. The attempted bombing at Costa cafe on Hamra Street differed from previous suicide attacks that have rather focused on the southern suburbs of Beirut, which are predominantly Shiite and Hezbollah-controlled. In contrast, Hamra Street is a central shopping district and popular for its nightlife. The risk rating for Lebanon remains high and travellers are advised to practisegood situational awareness across the capital.

> Another cyberattack derived from the notorious Shamoon virus occurred this quarter. This virus can steal computer files and wipe hard drives, potentially resulting in huge data loss for a company. According to Symantec, the virus has so far targeted Saudi government ministries, aviation companies and several petrochemical firms – one of which was joint US-owned. Spear-phishing appears to be a component of the virus, so companies should ensure staff are trained in recognising spear-phishing attempts.

Kidnappings in the Middle East doubled this quarter from Q4 2016, with the majority of kidnappings undertaken by criminals. Jordan fell from the top 10 hotspots, replaced by Turkey which rose to 7th place.


Country inside Unity’s top ten global kidnapping hotspots

Most targeted group: migrants

Fig 1. Groups Targeted Q1 2017

An Australian aid worker abducted in October 2016 remains captive in Yemen

The dependant of a Syrian businessman was held to a ransom of $50,000 USD

1

Journalists

Migrants

Dependants

Job seekers

Low skilled




> Regional AnalysisAsia

> In line with the previous quarter, and excluding a mass kidnapping in Myanmar, the Philippines remains the most dangerous country for kidnapping in the region. More victims were killed during the initial kidnapping or while in captivity than in any other part of the world. Furthermore, the highest ransom payment globally this quarter was made to ASG, with negotiators securing the release of a South Korean and his Filipino crewmate against a ransom of just over $500,000 USD.

> Afghanistan continues to be extremely dangerous for NGOs. This quarter, an Australian aid worker held captive by the Taliban was released after four months in captivity. According to the Aid Worker Security Database, Afghanistan is the second most dangerous country for aid workers, having been recently overtaken by South Sudan.

> In two separate incidents ASG kidnapped three Indonesians and six Vietnamese sailors from their vessels near the Philippines. The International Maritime Bureau noted that throughout 2016 global maritime kidnappings

increased threefold, even as piracy is at a near 20 year low. Much of this increase can be attributed to ASG’s activities in the Sulu Sea. Joint maritime patrols between the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are due to start in April. These patrols should assist in decreasing maritime kidnappings, however, they will not decimate the group, which retains considerable in-land influence and territorial control enabling them to reorganise and launch attacks.

> As in Pakistan, Bangladesh experienced a surge in militant attacks. Security forces are the prime target, although one attack occurred at a checkpoint close to Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka. The attacks have been claimed by the Islamic State, suggesting that despite a government crackdown following the July 2016 café siege, extremists remain operationally active. Meanwhile, militancy is growing in Pakistan, with Jamaat ul Ahrar, connected to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, announcing the start of ‘Operation Ghazi.’ Consequently, there has been an increase in bombings.

Asia witnessed a considerable increase in kidnappings this quarter, jumping by more than 180 percent. Tourists and maritime workers were the most targeted groups, with maritime kidnappings in the Sulu Sea a prevailing risk.

Fig 1. Percentage Kidnapping Incidents Q1 2017

3Countries inside Unity’s top ten global kidnapping hotspots

Kidnap flashpoint area: Sulu Sea

German tourist Jurgen Kantnerwas killed by ASG in the Philippines

5 Malaysian crewmates were rescued from ASG after 8 months in captivity


62%

20%

7%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

Myanmar

Philippines

Afghanistan

Australia

Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Cambodia


> Special FocusQ1 2017


Conflict Countries to Watch in 2017Measuring potential impacts from political instability and violence is increasingly challenging for foreign travellers and businesses. The international system is facing uncertain times, with intractable conflict and growing authoritarianism transcending efforts by world leaders to unite against multiple security threats.

Deepening civil and interstate conflict across the southern hemisphere coupled with sporadic terrorist attacks in the United States, Canada, and Europe offer a less than sanguine outlook.

“Anticipating the spectrum of hazards will test the most travel-savvy tourist or security practitioner.”

A rising number of rogue and lynchpin states eschewing their moral responsibility to protect their people have destabilised parts of the Americas, Africa, and Asia.

Anticipating the spectrum of hazards will test the most travel-savvy tourist or security practitioner attempting to stay ahead of the evolving threat picture. While government travel websites will advise on much of what you need to know, from Unity’s perspective, eleven places are considered increasingly volatile in 2017.

Venezuela

Looking towards the Americas region, few countries can match Venezuela’s gloomy prospects. The country may not be in open conflict but its capital Caracas has the world’s highest murder rates, inflation has soared by 700 percent, the healthcare system is poorly equipped to manage treatable illnesses, and food shortages are prevalent. Regional discussions are underway on how to manage the situation, but with desperation growing, the situation on the streets is increasingly dangerous.

South Sudan

Violence persists in the Equatoria and Upper Nile regions of South Sudan. A 2015 peace deal that preceded a heavy bout of fighting appears to be dead in the water with the vast majority of the South Sudanese opposition excluded from political negotiations by President Salva Kiir.

Democratic Republic Of Congo

With the DRC’s leader Joseph Kabila showing signs of a refusal to leave office and outlawing protests, tensions in the DRC are palpable. Militias are mobilising, with rebel group, M23 re-entering the country from demobilisation camps in Uganda, and Kamuina Nsapu rallying in the central Kasai. Kabila’s refusal to leave office could beget a new and popular urban uprising in a country already suffering a decades-long bloody civil war.

Burundi

Burundi remains politically adrift and could

descend into sudden chaos. Recurrent fighting between State and opposition forces has continued since Burundian President Pierre Nkrunziza secured a controversial third term in office in August 2015. Recent suggestions that he may seek to alter the constitution and secure a fourth term in 2020 do not bode well for Burundi’s future.

Turkey

Turkey’s increasingly despotic leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been emboldened by a failed coup in 2016 and is ambitiously planning to expand the powers of his presidency. Consequently, civil-military relations are in flux and terrorism has become the new norm.

Syria

To the south, efforts by Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the USA to end the Syrian conflict will further entrench all parties militarily and politically. Although a ceasefire has temporarily helped to stabilise the situation, a resolution will remain unobtainable while Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in power. Meanwhile, the opposition continues to squabble over power, doctrine and money.

Yemen

Though a largely forgotten war, Yemen mirrors Syria in 2017. The Gulf Arab States and Iran are fuelling the conflict with no end in sight. Al Qaeda-affiliated groups have expanded their reach, and weeding out their influence will be far harder than defeating ISIS. Further, the Iranian–backed Houthis are unlikely to disband, ensuring a protracted political conflict.


> Special FocusQ1 2017


Risk Reduction Checklist

> Carefully assess the risks before travel

> Take proactive steps to mitigate the most significant risks

> Ensure personnel are aware of and prepared for the prevailing risks

> Equip staff with robust communications

> Establish a reliable 24/7 hotline for reporting critical incidents

> Consider active or passive tracking to enhance accountability of personnel

> Implement and enforce resilientoperating procedures for:

> Booking travel/accommodation

> Journey management

> Develop and rehearse key contingencies for critical scenarios including:

> Evacuation

> Medical emergency

> Adopt a low profile to avoid attracting unwanted attention

> Monitor local conditions closely during travel

> Retain a credible risk management partner for advice and support

Iraq

Despite their contribution to the liberation of Mosul from ISIS, the ongoing presence and government legitimisation of Iranian-backed Shia militia groups will have a paradoxical effect on security. Internecine fighting is expected to extend Baghdad’s security woes long after ISIS has melted back into society.

Afghanistan

Moving towards Asia, an absence of military power in Afghanistan has allowed the Taliban to strengthen and intensify attacks against the government and its external supporters. On the current path, the Kabul government is unlikely to initiate diplomatic overtures with the group to find a sustainable solution. Without such efforts, there will be no sustainable solution.

Myanmar

The situation in Myanmar’s Rakhine State is extremely tenuous after security forces used excessive force against the minority Muslim Rohingya in October 2016. The potential for a new wave of violence between Muslim Rohingya and Buddhist Rakhine should not be discounted. The brutal treatment of the Rohingya by Myanmar’s security forces further suggests a retreat from earlier moves towards political liberalisation.

Thailand

In neighbouring Thailand, political change is underway as King Vajiralongkorn ascends the throne. The military junta that has ruled

since May 2014 retains its hold on power, while the new king is asserting his authority and seeks to be more politically dominant than his predecessor. Increasingly, a return to any semblance of civilian democracy looks unlikely. As in the violence surrounding the February 2014 elections, elections forecast for 2017 may well give rise to mob violence and domestic upheaval, especially in Bangkok.

Potential For Deterioration

It is not surprising that many of the countries above are categorised as HIGH to EXTREME risk on Unity’s ‘Security and Kidnap Risk Map 2017.’ Beyond these conflicts, there was a resumption of fighting in eastern Ukraine that could have the unintended consequence of drawing Russia and NATO members into a confrontation.

Another escalation of military action between Armenia and Azerbaijan over disputed territory in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is also possible this year. Domestic opposition to the Philippine government for its drug and foreign policies, political fracturing in Libya, and more terror attacks in Pakistan complete this snapshot of Unity’s watchlist countries for 2017.

There is no denying that the countries outlined above are all complex and challenging environments, however, ‘risk intelligent’ organisations can still operate in these countries providing they employ careful planning and adopt a proactive approach to managing risk. To quote Benjamin Franklin, “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.”

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Thank YouFor more information contact us at: AMERICAS – EUROPE – AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST – CENTRAL ASIA – AUSTRALASIA

[email protected]

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Crisis Monitor / 1st Quarter Report 2017 Conflict ... · Philippines remains the deadliest ... ten rankings in Q4 2016. ... and strategic infrastructure appears to