Crime Report for Southern California 2015ilssc.soceco.uci.edu/.../ILSSC_SoCal_Crime_Report_2015.pdfii Crime Report for Southern California 2015 Authors: Graduate Student Researchers:

Presented by the UCI Irvine Lab for the Study of Space and Crime

(ILSSC)

School of Social Ecology

University of California Irvine

December 1, 2016

Crime Report for Southern California

2015

ii

Crime Report for Southern California 2015 Authors:

Graduate Student Researchers:

Young-An Kim

Christopher J. Bates

Nicholas Branic

Christopher Contreras

Benjamin Forthun

Rupa Jose

Michelle D. Mioduszewski

Rylan Simpson

Seth Williams

James C. Wo

John R. Hipp Charis E. Kubrin

iii

The Irvine Laboratory for the Study of Space and Crime (ILSSC) in the Department of

Criminology, Law and Society at the University of California, Irvine is dedicated to researching

the social ecology of crime at all levels of analysis including street segments, blocks,

neighborhoods, cities, counties, and metropolitan areas. Together with our collaborators and

community partners, our team seeks to generate high quality scientific research on the space-

crime nexus, and to foster intellectual exchange among faculty, graduate students, and

undergraduate students at the University of California, Irvine, as well as members of the larger

community. The team studies: 1) Foundational issues, including the dynamics of urban crime,

the micro-environment of crime, and the role of local institutional resources for fighting crime;

2) Enduring challenges, including inequality, concentrated poverty and concentrated affluence,

urban processes such as economic redevelopment and gentrification, and trends in immigration

and other demographic population shifts; 3) Contemporary challenges, including the housing

crisis and foreclosures, the spatial clustering of multiple social problems, and the continuous

cycling of offenders in and out of prison and on and off of supervision. The ILSSC is a subsidiary

of the Metropolitan Futures Initiative (MFI).

ABOUT THE IRVINE LAB FOR THE STUDY OF SPACE AND CRIME (ILSSC)

iv

Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1

Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 1

Overview of results ................................................................................................................................... 3

Chapter 2. Violent and property crime ......................................................................................................... 4

Top 10 cities with cities with highest violent or property crime rates in 2015 ........................................ 4

Top 10 cities with highest violent and property crime rates averaged over 2013-2015 .......................... 6

Top 10 cities with lowest violent or property crime rates in 2015 ........................................................... 9

Top 10 cities with lowest violent and property crime rates averaged over 2013-2015 ......................... 10

Adjusted Crime rates based on city characteristics ................................................................................ 13

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2015 ......................................... 13

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged over 2013-2015 ......... 15

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2015 .......................................... 16

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged over 2013-2015 .......... 17

Chapter 3. Change in Violent and Property Crime in last 10 years ............................................................ 19

Top 10 cities with biggest increases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years ...................................... 19

Top 10 cities with biggest increases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years................................... 23

Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years..................................... 27

Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years ................................. 29

Chapter 4. Violent and Property Crime long-term change and projections .............................................. 31

Changes since 1990 in violent and property crime for U.S. cities .......................................................... 31

Projections of violent and property crime for 2017 ............................................................................... 32

County-level changes in violent and property crime .......................................................................... 32

Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 34

Los Angeles County ................................................................................................................................. 35

Orange County ........................................................................................................................................ 49

Riverside County ..................................................................................................................................... 56

San Bernardino County ........................................................................................................................... 62

San Diego County .................................................................................................................................... 68

Ventura County ....................................................................................................................................... 74

v

Chapter 1. Introduction Methodology

This is the third annual Crime Report for Southern California. In these annual reports, we use

data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program to describe the level of crime in cities

located in the Southern California region. It is well-known that these data underestimate the actual

amount of crime. This occurs because some crime events are not reported by citizens or detected by

the police. The crime data can also be inaccurate if the police classify some non-crime events as crimes,

or if they code some crime events as non-crimes. Despite these limitations, UCR data is generally

recognized as the best data source available for tracking crime trends in U.S. cities.

In our report, we examine the six most serious types of crime: homicide; aggravated assault;

robbery; burglary; motor vehicle theft; and larceny.1 For the analysis, we analyzed the level of crime for

all cities in the region with a population size of at least 4,000. We use this value given that cities with

very small populations can have excessive crime rates even with very few crime events. The Southern

California region is an area that includes 196 cities in the following counties: 1) Los Angeles; 2) Orange;

3) Riverside; 4) San Bernardino; 5) San Diego; 6) Ventura; 7) Imperial. The region contains 21.7 million

people.

We present results for cities with the top 10 levels of each crime type, cities with the bottom 10

levels of each crime type, and the top 10 increases and top 10 decreases in each crime type. The last

part of the report presents results for each county one at a time.

Throughout the report, we have standardized the crime rates to facilitate comparisons between

cities within the Southern California region. We refer to these as standardized crime rates. We first

compute the crime rate by dividing the number of crimes by the most recent estimate of the population

in the city. We standardize this value, and therefore a city that has a crime rate at the average value for

the region as a whole will have a standardized crime rate value of 100. Cities with standardized crime

rates greater than 100 are cities with crime rates greater than the average for the entire region;

likewise, cities with standardized crime rates less than 100 are cities with crime rates that are below the

average of the region. For example, a city with a value of 150 for the standardized aggravated assault

rate measure has 50% more aggravated assaults than the average of the region in that year. And a city

with a value of 60 has an aggravated assault rate that is only 60% as large as that of the average of the

region (or, we might say their aggravated assault rate is 40% less than the average of the region).

Violent crime combines aggravated assaults, robberies, and homicides. Property crime combines

burglaries, motor vehicle thefts, and larcenies.

1 We do not include rape in the analyses. Definitional differences, as well as policy differences, can lead to

differences in the reported level of rapes across cities that do not represent true difference in the level of this type of crime. Other crimes are less dependent on such reporting decisions.

2

In several cases in the report, we computed the crime rate averaged over a 3-year period (2013-

15). This is done to smooth out possible random year-to-year fluctuations in crime that might occur.

While some year-to-year changes in crime reflect true change in the city, others can be due to

idiosyncratic events in a particular year. These 3-year moving averages adjust for these fluctuations.

For computing the change in overall violent or property crime rates, we compute the difference

in these standardized crime rates.

This year we have added a new section (part of Chapter 2), that adjusts the crime rates based on

the demographic characteristics of the city. Thus, these rankings adjust the level of crime based on

certain demographic characteristics that criminologists are well aware are related to levels of crime in

cities. These adjusted values show the level of crime above what might be expected for a city with the

socio-demographic characteristics of the particular city.

This year we have added another new section (Chapter 4), that makes a forecast of the expected

violent and property crime rate for the cities in Southern California. We used a statistical model that

allows us to make forecasts of the level of violent crime and property crime in the Southern California

cities next year (2017). Our statistical models take into account the level of crime in these cities over the

last 15 years, and how it has been changing, to make forecasts of how much violent and property crime

there will be in these cities next year. We assessed the quality of our model on crime data from 1970 to

2010, and found that the average correlation between our projection of the property crime rate and the

actual property crime rate was .89 over these prior years. The average correlation of our violent crime

projection with the actual level was .95 over these prior years. So our model appears to do a reasonable

job projecting crime levels forward in time. Nonetheless, we caution the reader that the forecasts for

individual cities have a confidence interval around the predicted value.

3

Overview of results The main findings of the analysis are:

San Bernardino has the highest violent crime rate in 2015

Commerce has the highest property crime rate in 2015

Villa Park has the lowest violent crime rate in 2015

Imperial has the lowest property crime rate in 2015

Yucca Valley has experienced the largest increase in violent crime from 2014-2015

Adelanto has experienced the largest increase in violent crime in the last 5 years

Lynwood has experienced the largest increase in violent crime in the last 10 years

Signal Hill has experienced the largest increase in property crime in the last year

Big Bear Lake has experienced the largest increase in property crime in the last 5 years, and the

last 10 years

Compton has the largest decrease in violent crime from 2014-2015

Murrieta has experienced the largest decrease in violent and property crime in the last 5 years

Riverside has experienced the largest decrease in violent crime in the last 10 years

Coronado has the largest decrease in property crime from 2014-2015

Victorville has experienced the largest decrease in property crime in the last 10 years

Our forecast model projects an average decrease in violent crime across cities of 21% in 2017,

and 11% for property crime

Our forecast model projects violent crime decreasing in 82% of the cities in the region, and

property crime decreasing in 79% of the cities in the region

4

Chapter 2. Violent and property crime

Top 10 cities with cities with highest violent or property crime rates in 2015

In 2015, the highest violent crime rate was in San Bernardino. The adjusted violent crime rate of

362 indicates that whereas the average city in the region had a violent crime rate of 100, San

Bernardino’s rate was 262% higher than the average (362 – 100 = 262). It should be noted, that in

December of 2015, San Bernardino suffered a major terrorist attack that claimed the lives of 14 people.

Barstow had the second highest violent crime rate, 247% higher than the average city in the

region. Eight of the ten top violent cities were in either Los Angeles or San Bernardino counties. None of

the top ten violent cities were located in Orange County, Imperial County, or Ventura County. Below we

display the population of each city below to give a sense of the city size.

Commerce had the highest property crime rate in 2015, with almost 270% more property crime

than the average city in the region. The cities with the highest property crime rates come from four of

the six counties in the region. Three cities appear in the top 10 list for both violent and property crime:

Commerce, San Bernardino, and Hemet.

Below we present maps showing which cities have the highest or lowest adjusted violent or

property crime rates (averaged from 2013-15). In these maps, the cities with the highest crime rates are

shown in red, the second highest are in orange, the third highest are in yellow, those with the second

lowest are shown in green, and those with the lowest are shown in blue.

5

Top 10 cities with highest violent crime rate, 2015

City County

Violent

crime Population

1 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 361.6 216477

2 BARSTOW San Bernardino 346.6 23700

3 BIG BEAR LAKE San Bernardino 300.9 5209

4 COMPTON Los Angeles 289.3 99125

5 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside 237.0 28416

6 WEST HOLLYWOOD Los Angeles 224.1 36256

7 HEMET Riverside 209.0 84030

8 HAWTHORNE Los Angeles 206.2 88410

9 COMMERCE Los Angeles 205.5 13137

10 YUCCA VALLEY San Bernardino 202.2 21672

Top 10 cities with highest property crime rate, 2015

City County

Property

crime Population


2 SANTE FE SPRINGS Los Angeles 271.3 17867

3 SIGNAL HILL Los Angeles 260.1 11655

4 PALM SPRINGS Riverside 247.1 47388

5 EL CENTRO Imperial 234.2 44033

6 CULVER CITY Los Angeles 186.0 39890



9 REDLANDS San Bernardino 174.6 71078

10 HEMET Riverside 173.4 84030

6

Top 10 cities with highest violent and property crime rates averaged over

2013-2015

These lists show the cities with the highest crime rates, averaged over the last three years

(2013-15). This takes into account unusual yearly fluctuations. This list shows that Lynwood had the

highest violent crime rate, with 269% more violent crime than the average city in the region over the

last three years.

Commerce had the highest average property crime rate over the last three years (nearly 160%

more property crime than the average city in the region), as well as one of the higher violent crime

rates. Big Bear Lake, Compton, Signal Hill and Desert Hot Springs also had some of the highest violent

and property crime rates over the last three years.

Top 10 cities with highest violent crime rate (based on average over 2013-2015)

City County

Violent

crime Population

1 LYNWOOD Los Angeles 369.3 72398

2 ADELANTO San Bernardino 348.7 33005



5 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles 323.4 3962726




9 BELL GARDENS Los Angeles 286.2 43411


Top 10 cities with highest property crime rate (based on average over 2013-2015)

City County

Property

crime Population






6 BLYTHE Riverside 204.8 18961

7 PERRIS Riverside 192.5 75036



10 CALEXICO Imperial 164.5 40085

7

Figure 1. Average adjusted violent crime rate (2013-15) for Southern California cities

8

9

Top 10 cities with lowest violent or property crime rates in 2015

These lists show the 10 cities with lowest violent or property crime in 2015. Villa Park in Orange

County had the lowest violent crime rate (just 4.8% as high as the average city in the region). Several

other Orange County cities also had very low violent crime rates: Irvine, Yorba Linda, and Aliso Viejo.

Several Los Angeles County cities had very low violent crime rates: La Habra Heights, Palos Verdes

Estates, and Calabasas.

Imperial had the lowest property crime rate in 2015. Several cities are among the lowest in both

violent and property crime: La Habra Heights, Imperial, Yorba Linda, Canyon Lake, and Aliso Viejo.

The only city with an over 200,000 person population on these lists was Irvine.

Top 10 cities with lowest violent crime rate, 2015

City County

Violent

crime Population

1 VILLA PARK Orange 4.8 6002

2 IMPERIAL Imperial 8.4 17338

3 LA HABRA HEIGHTS Los Angeles 10.6 5500

4 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles 14.8 13739

5 IRVINE Orange 16.2 258198

6 YORBA LINDA Orange 16.5 68698

7 CALABASAS Los Angeles 17.8 24505

8 CANYON LAKE Riverside 18.3 11112

9 MURRIETA Riverside 18.3 109495

10 ALISO VIEJO Orange 18.3 50751

Top 10 cities with lowest property crime rate, 2015

City County

Property

crime Population

1 IMPERIAL Imperial 12.0 17338

2 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange 23.6 49719

3 ALISO VIEJO Orange 27.7 50751


5 OJAI Ventura 33.3 7665

6 FILLMORE Ventura 35.4 15519

7 MOORPARK Ventura 36.3 35804

8 YORBA LINDA Orange 36.6 68698


10 CITY OF POWAY San Diego 39.3 50327

10

Top 10 cities with lowest violent and property crime rates averaged over

2013-2015

These lists show the cities with the lowest violent and property crime rates averaged over the

last three years. Indian Wells of the Coachella Valley in Riverside County had the lowest violent crime

rate. The city of Rancho Santa Margarita had the lowest property crime rate over the last three years.

Six cities are among the lowest in both violent and property crime: Canyon Lake, Calabasas, La

Habra Heights, Laguna Niguel, Rancho Santa Margarita, and City of Poway. Temecula is the largest city

on these lists with an over 100,000 person population.

Top 10 cities with lowest violent crime rate (based on average over 2013-2015)

City County

Violent

crime Population

1 INDIAN WELLS Riverside 14.2 5279





6 LAGUNA NIGUEL Orange 18.5 66035


8 TEMECULA Riverside 21.6 111673


10 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles 22.3 11226

Top 10 cities with lowest property crime rate (based on average over 2013-2015)

City County

Property

crime Population





5 LAGUNA NIGUEL Orange 26.7 66035


7 MOORPARK Ventura 32.2 35804

8 SAN MARINO Los Angeles 32.7 13491

9 LAKE FOREST Orange 32.9 80798

10 RANCHO PALOS VERDES Los Angeles 34.0 42993

11

Figure 2. Average adjusted property crime rate (2013-15) for Southern California cities

12

13

Adjusted Crime rates based on city characteristics

Whereas we have been presenting crime rates for cities, in this section we adjust these rates for the characteristics of the city. That is, criminologists are well-aware that cities with certain characteristics typically have higher rates of crime. For example, cities with high levels of poverty tend to have higher rates of crime. Therefore, in this section we adjust the level of crime in the city for a number of these characteristics.

Specifically, we adjust for the following city-level characteristics: 1) percent aged 16 to 29 (the most crime-prone population); 2) the racial/ethnic composition (percent Asian, percent black, percent Latino, and the level of racial/ethnic heterogeneity); 3) the percent immigrants; 4) the average household income; 5) the level of income inequality; 6) the unemployment rate; 7) the percent aged 16 to 19 who are drop outs from school; 8) residential stability (the average length of residence for renters, and for owners); 9) percent vacant units; 10) the ratio of adults to children (a measure of social control); 11) the population density of the city; 12) the population of the city; 13) the average age of the housing stock.

We are therefore adjusting the level of crime for these factors; this is somewhat analogous to adjusting school performance scores based on the demographic composition of the school. Thus, a city that is particularly advantaged based on these demographic characteristics, and yet has an average level of crime, would actually have a relatively high adjusted level of crime, given that the level of crime is higher than would be expected based on the city’s demographic characteristics.

So we might refer to this as the unexpected level of crime. That is, these are cities that have either much higher levels of violent or property crime than we might have expected based on their socio-demographic characteristics, or much lower levels of violent or property crime than expected. Why cities might differ from what is expected could be due to a number of different reasons. We are not able to determine why these cities differ from expectations.

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2015

There are notable differences between the list in this section and the earlier ones that did not

adjust for the city characteristics. For example, we earlier saw that San Bernardino had the highest

violent crime rate in the region. However, this list shows that when we adjust for the socio-structural

characteristics of San Bernardino that make it more vulnerable to violence, it in fact is not among the

ten highest violent crime cities in the region. Likewise, other high violent cities overall such as Big Bear

Lake (#3), Compton (#4), and Desert Hot Springs (#5), are not among the highest violent crime cities

after taking into account the city’s characteristics.

Instead, we see that whereas Yucca Valley has the tenth highest violent crime rate in the region

in 2015, it has the highest level of violence after taking into account city characteristics. And the

14

relatively affluent beach cities of Manhattan Beach, Laguna Beach, and Del Mar have relatively high

adjusted violent crime rates compared to what we would expect given the characteristics of these cities.

For property crime, there is more overlap among the top 5 on this list and for the earlier

unadjusted list, as four of the five cities are near the top for both lists (Del Mar is the exception, as it has

an unexpectedly high property crime rate). The relatively advantaged cities of Hermosa Beach and

Fountain Valley have relatively high property crime rates after adjusting for city characteristics.

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent crime rate in 2015

City County

Adjusted

violent

crime Population


2 FILLMORE Ventura 87.0 15519

3 MANHATTAN BEACH Los Angeles 77.3 36065

4 INDIO Riverside 76.6 87195

5 LAGUNA BEACH Orange 70.7 23485

6 BARSTOW San Bernardino 69.3 23700

7 BANNING Riverside 68.2 31030

8 ARTESIA Los Angeles 66.6 16988

9 SANTA ANA Orange 64.8 337304

10 DEL MAR San Diego 59.8 4346

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted property crime rate in 2015

City County

Adjusted

property

crime Population




4 DEL MAR San Diego 68.2 4346


6 HERMOSA BEACH Los Angeles 64.2 19986

7 CALEXICO Imperial 54.0 40085

8 COACHELLA Riverside 53.8 44953

9 EL SEGUNDO Los Angeles 53.4 17164

10 FOUNTAIN VALLEY Orange 53.2 57392

15

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged

over 2013-2015

When assessing the cities with the highest average crime rates over the last 3 years, we see that

four of the top five cities from the unadjusted list do not appear on this list (only Desert Hot Springs is

the exception). After adjusting for the city composition, Lynwood, Adelanto, Commerce, and Los

Angeles do not appear among the highest violent crime cities over the last three years.

Based on these adjusted rates, relatively advantaged cities such as Los Alamitos and Beverly Hills

have the highest unexpected average violent crime rates over the last three years. Beach communities

such as Oceanside, Carlsbad, and Hermosa Beach also appear on this list.

We see many of the same cities with the highest adjusted property crime rates, including

Hermosa Beach, Los Alamitos, and Beverly Hills. And cities such as Commerce and Big Bear Lake, which

topped the unadjusted property crime 3-year list do not appear on this list.

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent crime rate (based on average over 2013-2015)

City County

Adjusted

violent

crime Population

1 LOS ALAMITOS Orange 91.3 11789

2 BEVERLY HILLS Los Angeles 90.0 35054


4 ARTESIA Los Angeles 85.6 16988

5 OCEANSIDE San Diego 81.4 176319

6 CARLSBAD San Diego 77.1 113972

7 WESTLAKE VILLAGE Los Angeles 76.0 8522




16

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted property crime rate (based on average over 2013-2015)

City County

Adjusted

property

crime Population


2 LOS ALAMITOS Orange 70.4 11789

3 STANTON Orange 69.3 38921




7 REDONDO BEACH Los Angeles 58.0 68492


9 LA MESA San Diego 55.9 59676

10 BEVERLY HILLS Los Angeles 53.8 35054

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2015

Whereas Villa Park and Imperial had the lowest unadjusted violent crime rates in 2015, they also

have the lowest adjusted rates. However, cities such as Palos Verde Estates and Irvine do not appear on

this list of lowest violent crime rates after adjusting for city characteristics that are related to lower

violence levels.

The cities of Monrovia and Maywood in Los Angeles County have the 3rd and 4th lowest violent

crime rates, after adjusting for their city characteristics.

The cities of Imperial and Rancho Santa Margarita were on the top ten lowest unadjusted

property crime list and also appear here after adjusting for city characteristics. However, the cities of

Aliso Viejo and Canyon Lake were among the lowest unadjusted property crime rates, but do not appear

on this list after adjusting for city characteristics. The cities of Santa Paula, Sierra Madre, and Imperial

Beach all appear on this list after not appearing on the list of lowest unadjusted property crime rates in

2015.

17

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent crime rate in 2015

City County

Adjusted

violent

crime Population

1 IMPERIAL Imperial -147.3 17338

2 VILLA PARK Orange -127.0 6002

3 MONROVIA Los Angeles -97.1 37618

4 MAYWOOD Los Angeles -93.7 28070

5 LA HABRA HEIGHTS Los Angeles -91.3 5500

6 OJAI Ventura -84.2 7665

7 SEAL BEACH Orange -81.3 24800

8 CORONADO San Diego -77.5 25138

9 GLENDORA Los Angeles -75.5 51753

10 MURRIETA Riverside -74.9 109495

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted property crime rate in 2015

City County

Adjusted

property

crime Population

1 IMPERIAL Imperial -151.8 17338

2 OJAI Ventura -107.0 7665

3 SANTA PAULA Ventura -84.3 30710

4 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles -83.3 11226

5 FILLMORE Ventura -81.9 15519

6 IMPERIAL BEACH San Diego -77.8 27341

7 HOLTVILLE Imperial -74.5 6376

8 TWENTYNINE PALMS San Bernardino -73.0 26105

9 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO Orange -68.6 36666

10 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange -59.5 49719

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged

over 2013-2015

There are sharp differences between this list of lowest adjusted violent crime rates over the last

three years and the earlier unadjusted rates. The top 5 cities from the unadjusted list do not appear

here. Instead, the very small city of Holtville has the lowest adjusted violent and property crime rate

over the last three years, after taking into account the city’s characteristics. And the small city of

Calimesa in Riverside County ranks among the lowest adjusted violent crime rates over the last three

years. The big cities (over 100,000 population) of Rialto, Inglewood, and Temecula all appear the top 5

cities for lowest unadjusted violent crime rates.

18

The cities with the lowest adjusted property crime rates over the last year tend to be smaller

cities. The exceptions are Rancho Santa Margarita and Lake Forest (both above 50,000 population),

which have low adjusted property crime rates. Relatively disadvantaged cities such as Lawndale,

Maywood, and Twentynine Palms appear among the cities with the lowest average property crime rate

over the last three years, after adjusting for city characteristics.

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent crime rate (based on average over 2013-2015)

City County

Adjusted

violent

crime Population


2 RIALTO San Bernardino -93.2 103590

3 CORONADO San Diego -89.5 25138

4 INGLEWOOD Los Angeles -87.9 112450

5 TEMECULA Riverside -86.6 111673


7 CALIMESA Riverside -71.1 8553

8 BELL Los Angeles -70.4 36395

9 SEAL BEACH Orange -68.9 24800


Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted property crime rate (based on average over 2013-2015)

City County

Adjusted

property

crime Population


2 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange -79.1 49719

3 LA HABRA HEIGHTS Los Angeles -78.2 5500

4 CANYON LAKE Riverside -71.4 11112

5 LAWNDALE Los Angeles -70.4 33605


7 TWENTYNINE PALMS San Bernardino -69.6 26105

8 LAKE FOREST Orange -68.6 80798


10 IMPERIAL BEACH San Diego -63.4 27341

19

Chapter 3. Change in Violent and Property Crime in last 10 years

Top 10 cities with biggest increases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years

These tables focus on the cities showing the biggest increase in violent crime in recent years. We display three tables: 1) Top 10 with the biggest increase in the last year (2012-2015; 2) Top 10 with the biggest increase in the last five years; 3) Top 10 with the biggest increase in the last ten years.

We also present maps throughout this section, and the following section, showing which cities

have experienced the largest changes in standardized crime rates over the last five years. In these

maps, the cities with the largest increases are shown in red, the second largest are in orange, the third

largest are in yellow, those with the second largest decrease are shown in green, and those with the

largest decreases are shown in blue.

In the last year, Yucca Valley experienced the largest increase in their violent crime rate. They

went from about 17% above the regional average to 102% above the regional average in the last year.

But this is a recent jump, as they do not appear on the top ten lists for the last 5 years or the last 10

years.

Signal Hill has experienced a large increase in violent crime rate over the last 5 years and the last

10 years, but does not appear on the list for the most recent year.

Lynwood has seen the largest increase in violence over the last 10 years—going from 113%

above the regional average to 269% greater.

None of the top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime in last 5 years appear in the top

10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate from 2012–2015. Nine of the top 10 cities with

largest increase in violent crime rate from 2012–2015 were a change from the recent years as they are

not included in the list of cities experiencing large increases in the last 5 or 10 years.

Desert Hot Springs is among the largest gainers in violence in the last 10 years and from 2012–

2015.

The largest increases in violent crime over the last 5 years and last 10 years have typically

occurred in cities in San Bernardino, Riverside, and Los Angeles counties. Four cities from San

Bernardino County appeared on the list as having large increases in the last 5 years and last 10 years.

Five cities from Riverside County appeared on the list as having large increases in the last 5 years and

last 10 years. Ten cities from Los Angeles County appeared on the list as having large increases in the

last 5 years and last 10 years.

20

Top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate from 2012-2015

City County Change First year This year Population

1 YUCCA VALLEY San Bernardino 85.3 116.9 202.2 21672

2 BRAWLEY Imperial 76.0 86.8 162.8 26023

3 BANNING Riverside 61.2 123.0 184.3 31030

4 FILLMORE Ventura 47.6 105.7 153.4 15519

5 CALEXICO Imperial 41.4 80.9 122.4 40085

6 ARTESIA Los Angeles 40.6 102.9 143.5 16988

7 BEAUMONT Riverside 37.0 54.8 91.8 43626

8 HAWAIIAN GARDENS Los Angeles 36.5 134.1 170.6 14629

9 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside 35.8 201.1 237.0 28416

10 HEMET Riverside 34.8 174.2 209.0 84030

Top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 ADELANTO San Bernardino 204.7 143.9 348.7 33005

2 SIGNAL HILL Los Angeles 197.5 86.7 284.2 11655

3 BIG BEAR LAKE San Bernardino 181.0 117.3 298.3 5209

4 HEMET Riverside 145.0 62.9 207.8 84030

5 ROSEMEAD Los Angeles 140.4 63.6 204.0 55231

6 BELL GARDENS Los Angeles 129.9 156.2 286.2 43411

7 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 129.9 187.8 317.7 216477

8 HAWTHORNE Los Angeles 116.1 145.4 261.5 88410

9 EL MONTE Los Angeles 114.5 80.4 195.0 117376

10 PERRIS Riverside 107.4 110.0 217.4 75036

Top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 LYNWOOD Los Angeles 256.5 112.7 369.3 72398


3 ADELANTO San Bernardino 204.4 144.3 348.7 33005


5 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles 175.0 148.5 323.4 3962726



8 BELL GARDENS Los Angeles 149.0 137.2 286.2 43411

9 BLYTHE Riverside 130.0 106.7 236.7 18961


21

Figure 3. Change in average adjusted violent crime rate (2010-15) for Southern California cities

22

23

Top 10 cities with biggest increases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years

These next tables look at the cities with the biggest increase in property crime. Signal Hill

experienced the largest increases in property crime over the last year. Signal Hill also experienced large

increases in property crime in the last 5 years, and the last 10 years. In the last 10 years, they have gone

from a city about 26% above the region average in property crime to one 127% higher than the average

(averaged over the last 3 years). In the last 5 years, they have gone from a city about 11% below the

region average in property crime to one 127% higher than the average (averaged over the last 3 years).

In the last year their property crime rate increased to 160% above the regional average. Signal Hill is #1

over the last year, #4 over the last 5 years, and #3 over the last 10 years.

In last year’s Report, Palm Springs was the city with one of the largest increases in property

crime. This year Palm Springs does not appear on the top 10 list for the most recent year, or the most

recent 5 or 10 years. Costa Mesa has seen a large spike in property crime in the last year, going from

60% below the regional average to 61% above the average. However, this may simply be a spike, as they

do not appear on the lists over the last 5 or 10 years. Signal Hill is the only city that continues to

experience property crime increases.

Although Big Bear Lake has experienced a large increase over the last 10 years to go from a 52%

above average level in 2003 to almost 140% above the average, they do not appear on the list for the

most recent year. However, Big Bear Lake is the #1 increase in property crime over the last 5 years and

the last 10 years.

El Centro is an Imperial County city that appears on the top 10 lists for property crime increases

for the current year and over the last 10 years. This city has seen a steady increase in property crime

over the last 10 years, and has gone from slightly above average property crime to a very high property

crime city.

24

Top 10 cities with largest increase in property crime rate from 2012-2015



2 COMMERCE Los Angeles 75.0 292.0 367.0 13137

3 EL CENTRO Imperial 44.4 189.8 234.2 44033

4 COSTA MESA Orange 39.8 121.1 160.9 113477


6 BARSTOW San Bernardino 37.2 131.9 169.2 23700

7 HAWAIIAN GARDENS Los Angeles 34.2 49.8 84.0 14629

8 SOUTH PASADENA Los Angeles 32.2 71.9 104.1 26287

9 FOUNTAIN VALLEY Orange 31.4 70.7 102.2 57392

10 DEL MAR San Diego 31.1 125.5 156.6 4346

Top 10 cities with largest increase in property crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving

averages)






5 COLTON San Bernardino 77.2 69.5 146.7 54503


7 SOUTH EL MONTE Los Angeles 74.8 60.5 135.3 20679


9 OXNARD Ventura 66.3 55.2 121.5 207221

10 BEVERLY HILLS Los Angeles 66.3 88.9 155.2 35054

Top 10 cities with largest increase in property crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving

averages)







6 CALEXICO Imperial 103.6 60.9 164.5 40085

7 COLTON San Bernardino 97.7 49.0 146.7 54503


9 EL CENTRO Imperial 87.6 104.2 191.9 44033

10 STANTON Orange 80.1 54.2 134.4 38921

25

Figure 4. Change in average adjusted property crime rate (2013-15) for Southern California cities

26

27

Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years

These next tables review the cities experiencing the largest relative decrease in violent crime.

The crime levels that are shown are standardized to the regional average for a particular year.

Therefore, some of the cities on this list appear to have “higher” crime even though they are among

those with the biggest decreases in violent crime. They actually have experienced decreases, and these

standardized measures simply obscure this fact.

Compton has seen the largest decrease in violent crime in the last year, going from 303% above

the average to 189% above the average. So while violence remains high, this is a promising recent sign

for this city.

The small cities are more likely to experience drops in violence over the last year, as small cities

are low violence cities that have nonetheless experienced further decreases. In 2015 nine cities are

above the region average in violence, but nonetheless have experienced large drops in the last year.

The city of Murrieta has experienced the largest drop over the last 5 years, going from 226%

above the region average, to 72% below the region average.

Highland has also experienced a large drop in violence over the last year, going from 58% above

the region average to 7% above the average. This continues a long-term drop in which they have the 5th

largest drop in violence over the last 5 years, going from 76% above the region average to 6% below the

region average over the last 5 years. Furthermore, Highland had the 9th largest drop in violence over the

last 10 years, going from 36% above the region average to 6% below the region average over the last 10

years.

Riverside has the largest drop in violence over the last 10 years, although they do not appear on

the most recent lists. Los Angeles, which had the largest drop in violence over the last 10 years in 2013

and 2014 reports is no longer included in the 10 ten cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate in

the last 10 years.

28

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate from 2012-2015


1 COMPTON Los Angeles -115.7 403.6 289.3 99125

2 HOLTVILLE Imperial -75.1 143.2 68.3 6376

3 PORT HUENEME Ventura -62.9 140.7 79.6 22249

4 PICO RIVERA Los Angeles -61.9 149.6 89.5 64551

5 HAWTHORNE Los Angeles -57.4 262.7 206.2 88410

6 HIGHLAND San Bernardino -51.0 157.6 106.6 55011

7 HUNTINGTON PARK Los Angeles -51.0 238.8 187.8 59668

8 DEL MAR San Diego -51.8 117.0 66.8 4346

9 IMPERIAL BEACH San Diego -44.0 137.4 93.4 27341

10 LA HABRA HEIGHTS Los Angeles -43.8 52.8 10.6 5500

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 MURRIETA Riverside -298.2 325.5 27.7 109495

2 VICTORVILLE San Bernardino -135.8 279.8 145.7 123332

3 BEAUMONT Riverside -96.4 149.3 53.7 43626

4 LAWNDALE Los Angeles -89.1 234.4 145.5 33605


6 EL CAJON San Diego -67.7 109.5 43.2 103942

7 PASADENA Los Angeles -61.2 143.4 82.6 141815

8 COMPTON Los Angeles -61.3 380.7 320.0 99125

9 HAWAIIAN GARDENS Los Angeles -58.7 242.4 185.1 14629

10 FONTANA San Bernardino -55.6 156.4 102.0 206982

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 RIVERSIDE Riverside -116.5 229.5 114.0 323064

2 PASADENA Los Angeles -113.8 194.8 82.6 141815


4 MONTCLAIR San Bernardino -71.4 190.5 119.8 38899

5 EL CAJON San Diego -70.8 112.4 43.2 103942


7 RIALTO San Bernardino -60.6 113.1 53.7 103590

8 NEEDLES San Bernardino -53.2 145.6 92.8 4998


10 BELLFLOWER Los Angeles -39.3 210.5 171.8 78635

29

Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10

years

These next tables review the cities experiencing the largest relative decrease in property crime.

The crime levels that are shown are standardized to the regional average for a particular year.

Therefore, some of the cities on this list appear to have “higher” crime even though they are among

those with the biggest decreases in property crime. They actually have experienced decreases, and

these standardized measures simply obscure this fact.

Coronado experienced the largest decrease in property crime in the last year, going from an 8%

below the average rate the prior year to 42% below the average this year. The remainder of the top ten

is made up of relatively smaller population cities that have experienced decreases: Ojai, San Jacinto, Big

Bear Lake, and Victorville.

The city of Murrieta has experienced the largest drop over the last 5 years, going from 388%

above the region average, to 56% below the region average.

Victorville has also experienced a large drop in property crime over the last year, going from

41% above the region average to 26% above the average. This continues a long-term drop in which they

have the 3rd largest drop in property crime over the last 5 years, going from 48% above the region

average to 13% below the region average over the last 5 years. Furthermore, Victorville had the 1st

largest drop in violence over the last 10 years, going from 25% above the region average to 13% below

the region average over the last 10 years.

Beaumont has also experienced a large drop in property crime over the last year, going from 7%

below the region average to 21% below the average. This continues a long-term drop in which they have

the 4rd largest drop in property crime over the last 5 years, going from 14% above the region average to

41% below the region average over the last 5 years. Furthermore, Beaumont had the 7th largest drop in

violence over the last 10 years, going from 26% below the region average to 41% below the region

average over the last 10 years.

30

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in property crime rate from 2012-2015


1 CORONADO San Diego -34.4 91.9 58.3 25138

2 OJAI Ventura -29.1 62.2 33.3 7665

3 SAN JACINTO Riverside -21.5 160.0 139.5 47022

4 BIG BEAR LAKE San Bernardino -17.3 200.7 184.1 5209


6 LA QUINTA Riverside -15.0 131.3 116.3 40554


8 BRAWLEY Imperial -15.8 156.6 142.3 26023

9 CANYON LAKE Riverside -14.4 45.9 32.4 11112

10 NATIONAL CITY San Diego -12.0 104.2 92.2 60768

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in property crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 MURRIETA Riverside -444.0 488.4 44.4 109495

2 CERRITOS Los Angeles -86.5 190.4 105.0 50238




6 HOLTVILLE Imperial -47.7 90.4 44.1 6376

7 ANAHEIM Orange -37.7 120.7 84.3 349471

8 CORONA Riverside -31.9 137.1 107.0 163633



Top 10 cities with largest decrease in property crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving

averages)



2 IMPERIAL BEACH San Diego -29.8 75.1 46.9 27341

3 LA PUENTE Los Angeles -24.7 63.2 39.9 40958



6 NEWPORT BEACH Orange -20.5 115.9 96.4 87749


8 FULLERTON Orange -12.0 84.0 72.0 140771


10 UPLAND San Bernardino -11.7 94.6 84.3 76581

31

Chapter 4. Violent and Property Crime long-term change and projections

Changes since 1990 in violent and property crime for U.S. cities

Given the discussion in the media about the long-term trends in crime in U.S. cities, we show

how violent and property crime have changed in U.S. cities since 1990. The following chart shows how

violent crime rates and property crime rates have changed since 1990 in U.S. and Southern California

cities with at least 10,000 population. The chart highlights that whereas the property and violent crime

rates were higher in Southern California cities compared to U.S. cities in 1990, they have exhibited an

even sharper downward trajectory compared to the U.S. and are now lower.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Long-term trend in crime for U.S. cities and Southern California cities

National violent crime rate (right axis) So Cal violent crime rate (right axis) National property crime rate So Cal property crime rate

32

Projections of violent and property crime for 2017

We next present the forecasted violent and property crime rates in Southern California cities for 2017 based on our statistical model.

Based on the model, we first present the expected change in all cities in the region from 2015 to 2017. We then describe how the model projects changes in the cities in each county. We remind the reader that the forecasts for individual cities have a confidence interval around the predicted value, and therefore the forecasts are simply our “best guess” of the level of crime for 2017.

County-level changes in violent and property crime

In general, our projection model forecasts an overall relative drop in violent and property crime

in the region from 2015 levels to 2017. Whereas the average city had a violent crime rate in 2015 of 310

violent crime events per 100,000 people, our model projects an average decrease across cities of 21% in

2017 (a decrease of 65 violent crime events per 100,000 people). Our model projects an 11% decrease

in property crime events from 2015 to 2017 (a decrease of 267 property crime events per 100,000

people).

The projection model forecasts violent crime decreasing in 154 of the cities in the region (82%),

and increasing in just 34 of the cities. And the forecast model sees property crime decreasing in 148 of

the cities in the region (79%), and increasing in just 40 of the cities.

Turning to the individual counties, our model forecasts that cities in Los Angeles county will

generally fare similarly to the region overall. The model forecasts a nearly 21% decrease in violent crime

and a nearly 11% decrease in property crime in 2017, on average, for the cities in Los Angeles County.

About 88% of the cities are projected to experience a decrease in violent crime, whereas 80% are

projected to experience a decrease in property crime.

The model forecasts that Orange County cities will experience slightly larger decreases in crime

compared to the region overall. The cities in Orange County are projected to have, on average, 21.5%

less violent crime and 11.5% less property crime. Fully 94% of the cities are projected to experience

decreasing violent crime and 81% are projected to experience decreasing property crime.

Riverside County cities are forecasted to experience, on average, the largest decreases in

violence (35.5% less than 2017). Nonetheless, this is not uniform: although 83% of the cities are

33

projected to experience decreases in violence, 17% are projected to increase. Riverside County cities

are projected to experience decreases in property crime that are similar to the region overall.

San Bernardino County cities are also projected to experience decreases similar to the region

overall. San Bernardino cities, on average, are projected to experience a 19% decrease in violent crime

and an 11.5% decrease in property crime from 2015 to 2017. 74% of the cities are projected to

experience a decrease in violent crime, and 83% for property crime.

San Diego County cities are forecasted to experience the least change in violence. The model

forecasts just a 3% decrease in violent crime, on average, across San Diego cities, with about half

projected to increase and half projected to decrease. However, the projected decrease in property

crime in San Diego County cities is similar to that of the region overall.

Finally, whereas Ventura County cities are projected to experience a similar decrease in violent

crime to the region overall, property crime is projected to remain stable on average across these 10

cities.

Projected change for cities in the counties of the region from 2015 to 2017

County

Average

projected

change in

violent crime

Average

projected

change in

property crime

Percent cities

projected

decreasing

violent crime

Percent cities

projected

decreasing

property crime

Region -21.0% -10.9% 81.9% 78.7%

Los Angeles -20.7% -10.7% 87.7% 80.2%

Orange -21.5% -11.5% 93.8% 81.3%

Riverside -35.5% -12.1% 83.3% 75.0%

San Bernardino -19.3% -11.5% 73.9% 82.6%

San Diego -3.0% -11.7% 55.6% 88.9%

Ventura -21.2% -0.8% 60.0% 40.0%

34

Appendix

In this Appendix, we display the adjusted crime rates for all cities in each of the six major counties in the region. We present the results for each county separately, beginning with Los Angeles County. The first table for each county shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2015) for all cities in the county. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2013-15) for all cities in the county. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county. Each Figure presents the trajectories for a geographic cluster of cities. A map in each section shows the geographic clustering of cities for these figures. For each Figure, the scale is typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the bottom value

is a city with no violent crime, whereas 400 indicates a city with a violent crime rate 300% higher than the regional average (400 -100 = 300). For a few of the Figures, we had to extend the scale if certain cities had particularly high violent crime rates.

To understand how to interpret the

tables, note that in the first table for Los Angeles County, the city of Artesia has an adjusted aggravated assault rate of 143.8, indicating that in 2015 their aggravated assault rate was 43.8% higher than the average city in the region. The burglary rate in Artesia was 24.9% higher than the average city in the region (124.9 – 100 = 24.9). Artesia had no homicides in 2015, thus the adjusted homicide rate is 0. However, their larceny rate was below the average of the region at just 79.6% of the regional average.

35

Los Angeles County Standardized crime rates for cities in Los Angeles County, 2015

City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 AGOURA HILLS 17.9 31.2 0.0 83.8 24.4 54.2 20970

2 ALHAMBRA 43.6 93.6 27.8 75.9 113.7 85.9 86175

3 ARCADIA 24.0 57.6 40.8 115.4 50.6 79.6 58694

4 ARTESIA 143.8 192.6 0.0 124.9 303.5 79.6 16988

5 AZUSA 103.6 108.1 96.8 100.6 184.2 83.1 49431

6 BALDWIN PARK 113.3 108.3 30.9 67.2 198.3 58.7 77538

7 BELL 171.6 209.7 65.8 114.3 172.3 63.8 36395

8 BELL GARDENS 86.6 128.1 0.0 44.9 319.9 47.3 43411

9 BELLFLOWER 118.9 210.8 30.4 123.2 329.0 54.4 78635

10 BEVERLY HILLS 65.7 124.4 68.3 143.1 95.4 139.0 35054

11 BURBANK 43.5 51.5 22.6 60.1 97.8 105.7 105865

12 CALABASAS 1.9 40.0 0.0 49.9 26.5 43.0 24505

13 CARSON 148.9 133.9 178.8 107.3 195.8 71.7 93677

14 CERRITOS 35.5 99.8 0.0 151.0 204.3 138.1 50238

15 CLAREMONT 46.5 45.0 65.9 146.9 79.3 97.2 36331

16 COMMERCE 189.5 232.4 364.4 163.2 1233.8 318.3 13137

17 COMPTON 289.0 365.2 313.9 107.3 359.4 60.6 99125

18 COVINA 62.9 73.0 48.5 103.5 130.0 80.0 49300

19 CUDAHY 94.3 98.3 98.0 42.2 156.0 38.0 24410

20 CULVER CITY 87.1 213.2 0.0 115.0 124.6 209.9 39890

21 DIAMOND BAR 20.6 53.5 41.9 105.1 78.9 39.2 57085

22 DOWNEY 54.0 164.4 146.0 96.0 320.5 72.4 114754

23 DUARTE 105.9 93.5 0.0 65.7 138.3 55.1 22171

24 EL MONTE 91.2 132.9 163.1 84.2 269.1 44.2 117376

25 EL SEGUNDO 46.5 139.8 139.4 183.6 129.9 130.1 17164

26 GARDENA 94.3 267.3 236.2 112.5 274.3 72.5 60782

27 GLENDALE 22.8 40.4 59.2 56.2 81.0 68.1 202298

28 GLENDORA 21.8 52.7 0.0 75.8 53.8 110.7 51753

29 HAWAIIAN GARDENS 186.2 178.9 327.2 96.7 193.7 68.4 14629

30 HAWTHORNE 181.2 303.4 162.4 116.1 281.1 87.0 88410

31 HERMOSA BEACH 58.8 65.5 0.0 129.8 95.3 110.9 19986

32 HUNTINGTON PARK 136.2 323.5 40.1 63.2 619.6 92.7 59668

33 INGLEWOOD 152.9 347.2 149.0 99.7 282.1 65.5 112450

34 LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 13.6 31.5 115.3 109.4 26.8 42.7 20763

35 LA HABRA HEIGHTS 8.5 0.0 0.0 77.9 25.3 30.5 5500

36 LA MIRADA 40.7 48.3 0.0 68.2 115.0 60.8 49685

37 LA PUENTE 88.3 93.2 0.0 47.6 144.0 33.9 40958

38 LA VERNE 30.3 60.2 0.0 123.0 68.4 111.4 32595

39 LAKEWOOD 63.5 123.6 87.5 98.8 172.7 96.8 82047

40 LANCASTER 171.0 219.3 103.4 177.5 141.5 64.1 162095

36

41 LAWNDALE 174.7 201.2 0.0 72.7 143.7 44.3 33605

42 LOMITA 98.9 88.7 114.5 82.1 97.8 69.5 20893

43 LONG BEACH 147.8 241.3 180.9 139.2 275.9 92.6 476318

44 LOS ANGELES 162.5 246.3 170.3 87.4 189.3 80.9 3962726

45 LYNWOOD 157.0 224.4 165.3 86.8 411.9 35.0 72398

46 MALIBU 36.0 58.6 0.0 138.2 74.8 102.5 13033

47 MANHATTAN BEACH 33.9 108.9 0.0 122.4 56.7 101.3 36065

48 MAYWOOD 78.6 69.9 170.5 29.8 238.3 32.7 28070

49 MONROVIA 27.5 55.1 127.2 58.7 117.3 70.2 37618

50 MONTEBELLO 55.5 123.8 111.7 194.1 363.4 48.7 64280

51 MONTEREY PARK 30.4 100.7 0.0 131.2 182.8 61.8 61750

52 NORWALK 99.2 132.9 200.4 78.8 185.0 53.0 107470

53 PALMDALE 155.4 171.5 105.0 107.8 132.4 56.8 159613

54 PALOS VERDES ESTATES 6.8 31.7 0.0 127.9 30.4 29.8 13739

55 PARAMOUNT 127.3 236.8 42.9 94.6 408.4 89.9 55727

56 PASADENA 78.2 100.7 67.5 125.5 105.8 93.9 141815

57 PICO RIVERA 76.4 125.0 148.3 87.3 277.0 65.2 64551

58 POMONA 127.5 205.5 155.0 96.1 377.8 86.8 154410

59 RANCHO PALOS VERDES 26.2 30.4 55.7 103.2 42.1 37.2 42993

60 REDONDO BEACH 64.5 111.4 69.9 108.9 111.9 95.2 68492

61 ROLLING HILLS ESTATES 28.3 52.6 0.0 124.0 28.0 35.4 8296

62 ROSEMEAD 60.4 144.1 86.7 104.4 269.9 62.3 55231

63 SAN DIMAS 59.1 90.5 68.5 71.7 83.7 74.8 34955

64 SAN FERNANDO 109.7 140.6 0.0 108.8 224.5 55.5 24823

65 SAN GABRIEL 50.8 107.1 58.8 68.4 98.1 53.9 40714

66 SAN MARINO 41.8 32.3 0.0 128.7 41.3 51.3 13491

67 SANTA CLARITA 41.4 64.0 79.3 66.6 65.6 48.9 211132

68 SANTA MONICA 115.2 200.0 25.5 150.8 109.4 165.0 93796

69 SANTE FE SPRINGS 99.9 256.3 133.9 193.2 561.5 257.2 17867

70 SIERRA MADRE 29.3 29.1 0.0 91.7 41.4 27.5 11226

71 SIGNAL HILL 80.6 290.0 205.3 187.6 358.6 266.2 11655

72 SOUTH EL MONTE 195.3 142.4 694.4 166.9 366.1 82.4 20679

73 SOUTH GATE 163.1 224.2 49.5 127.1 504.4 89.5 96775

74 SOUTH PASADENA 8.9 91.3 0.0 115.0 54.8 106.9 26287

75 TEMPLE CITY 39.9 71.7 65.5 90.4 50.9 40.2 36524

76 TORRANCE 29.3 62.1 32.1 77.6 98.6 71.1 149243

77 WALNUT 18.5 60.8 78.5 100.6 33.5 27.0 30469

78 WEST COVINA 64.2 99.0 43.9 78.6 207.5 100.7 109030

79 WEST HOLLYWOOD 218.9 270.7 132.0 123.6 114.0 159.3 36256

80 WESTLAKE VILLAGE 11.0 25.6 0.0 118.2 32.7 87.3 8522

81 WHITTIER 69.0 111.8 27.3 77.9 219.5 107.2 87807

37

Standardized crime rates for cities in Los Angeles County, average from 2013-2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 AGOURA HILLS 33.3 24.6 0.0 43.9 22.7 37.5 20970

2 ALHAMBRA 73.0 168.0 33.9 103.5 148.5 70.6 86175

3 ARCADIA 42.9 90.6 24.8 103.2 109.2 93.9 58694

4 ARTESIA 227.2 213.3 249.9 107.0 192.7 54.6 16988

5 AZUSA 90.4 93.8 97.3 101.5 126.5 80.4 49431

6 BALDWIN PARK 125.4 161.5 123.8 108.5 203.0 51.2 77538

7 BELL 88.1 201.1 73.2 87.0 157.9 45.9 36395

8 BELL GARDENS 303.8 280.1 317.0 130.1 218.7 54.5 43411

9 BELLFLOWER 160.1 215.0 12.5 107.8 238.2 57.5 78635

10 BEVERLY HILLS 61.6 338.0 147.1 167.5 190.4 147.0 35054

11 BURBANK 60.2 91.7 46.1 48.6 156.4 80.0 105865

12 CALABASAS 9.5 25.7 0.0 33.3 12.8 32.1 24505

13 CARSON 199.7 161.0 193.5 76.1 198.6 56.3 93677

14 CERRITOS 55.1 148.2 36.1 80.0 225.8 98.1 50238

15 CLAREMONT 38.9 73.7 97.5 97.1 83.2 80.3 36331

16 COMMERCE 289.1 421.4 464.9 127.0 874.9 222.3 13137

17 COMPTON 260.3 479.9 363.9 302.2 445.3 104.3 99125

18 COVINA 64.7 117.7 40.6 82.1 132.6 79.3 49300

19 CUDAHY 162.5 171.5 165.6 79.1 176.3 33.8 24410

20 CULVER CITY 59.4 237.9 99.5 125.0 189.9 139.8 39890

21 DIAMOND BAR 67.1 71.6 34.5 53.9 106.5 34.8 57085

22 DOWNEY 47.1 168.4 114.6 124.6 216.0 81.5 114754

23 DUARTE 132.2 121.9 30.2 88.0 121.0 48.8 22171

24 EL MONTE 172.3 265.5 174.8 135.5 238.3 67.6 117376

25 EL SEGUNDO 83.7 179.4 80.6 128.4 227.7 118.3 17164

26 GARDENA 129.5 302.7 199.2 79.3 190.6 52.7 60782

27 GLENDALE 31.8 80.7 68.4 111.5 126.0 77.0 202298

28 GLENDORA 31.5 56.3 0.0 83.6 60.6 70.8 51753

29 HAWAIIAN GARDENS 158.0 256.5 325.6 63.3 182.9 56.4 14629

30 HAWTHORNE 229.2 359.8 140.5 100.8 275.2 79.1 88410

31 HERMOSA BEACH 47.4 122.9 105.9 196.5 171.1 79.5 19986

32 HUNTINGTON PARK 166.5 453.0 245.4 214.8 354.9 83.8 59668

33 INGLEWOOD 135.2 319.6 189.2 98.4 219.8 65.8 112450

34 LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 49.0 50.3 31.7 90.9 49.8 39.2 20763

35 LA HABRA HEIGHTS 22.9 0.0 0.0 42.4 21.0 21.4 5500

36 LA MIRADA 44.9 34.9 26.7 35.4 74.0 40.2 49685

37 LA PUENTE 112.4 91.7 93.2 35.1 136.8 29.5 40958

38 LA VERNE 70.1 55.6 21.3 73.3 74.1 72.9 32595

39 LAKEWOOD 128.3 195.5 110.2 71.2 244.3 80.3 82047

40 LANCASTER 139.9 167.6 85.2 95.0 90.7 45.1 162095

38

41 LAWNDALE 142.9 153.8 0.0 38.9 92.1 31.2 33605

42 LOMITA 123.1 108.2 261.0 108.9 92.5 46.0 20893

43 LONG BEACH 121.8 284.6 188.9 137.0 237.3 80.7 476318

44 LOS ANGELES 290.0 423.9 291.4 87.5 269.4 82.0 3962726

45 LYNWOOD 268.5 628.0 391.9 246.2 324.9 110.4 72398

46 MALIBU 59.0 38.4 0.0 76.6 45.7 63.1 13033

47 MANHATTAN BEACH ... ... ... ... ... ... 36065

48 MAYWOOD 122.8 146.2 300.1 33.3 186.8 31.2 28070

49 MONROVIA 65.2 124.8 159.6 141.4 110.2 93.3 37618

50 MONTEBELLO 85.1 145.5 73.4 131.8 268.3 55.4 64280

51 MONTEREY PARK 60.8 209.6 95.5 90.9 199.1 49.1 61750

52 NORWALK 141.5 179.7 226.3 63.3 213.4 50.2 107470

53 PALMDALE ... ... ... ... ... ... 159613

54 PALOS VERDES ESTATES 13.5 16.8 0.0 99.4 25.6 59.9 13739

55 PARAMOUNT 202.7 280.5 208.8 127.1 312.7 75.9 55727

56 PASADENA 73.0 102.2 101.5 84.7 76.8 81.0 141815

57 PICO RIVERA 244.4 178.6 191.2 69.1 196.2 46.7 64551

58 POMONA 219.8 341.7 293.4 182.7 239.8 90.1 154410

59 RANCHO PALOS VERDES 32.1 28.7 22.9 49.6 42.9 27.8 42993

60 REDONDO BEACH 85.0 146.5 83.0 99.6 170.3 96.5 68492

61 ROLLING HILLS ESTATES 41.4 64.6 0.0 108.3 39.3 50.9 8296

62 ROSEMEAD 197.0 243.1 162.8 114.9 239.0 54.4 55231

63 SAN DIMAS 123.0 85.0 117.7 78.0 99.7 59.5 34955

64 SAN FERNANDO 163.6 177.5 61.5 76.3 243.9 54.8 24823

65 SAN GABRIEL 92.7 130.0 16.1 121.7 109.3 73.0 40714

66 SAN MARINO 20.1 33.5 0.0 41.2 20.9 31.4 13491

67 SANTA CLARITA 33.9 49.0 65.4 35.7 42.0 34.4 211132

68 SANTA MONICA 112.2 292.0 85.2 159.0 209.9 134.8 93796

69 SANTE FE SPRINGS 201.7 295.6 238.7 167.0 517.0 203.5 17867

70 SIERRA MADRE 28.6 9.9 0.0 52.1 36.4 33.3 11226

71 SIGNAL HILL 267.6 340.9 331.0 280.9 380.7 190.4 11655

72 SOUTH EL MONTE 241.0 192.8 298.5 206.2 266.5 96.3 20679

73 SOUTH GATE 89.6 244.1 94.6 143.3 285.5 75.9 96775

74 SOUTH PASADENA 34.2 89.0 53.3 74.6 112.5 55.1 26287

75 TEMPLE CITY 72.6 107.5 58.1 82.8 84.2 40.7 36524

76 TORRANCE 47.7 100.6 31.6 66.9 126.8 63.6 149243

77 WALNUT 57.8 60.7 83.2 144.3 93.3 55.0 30469

78 WEST COVINA 37.0 69.1 12.1 143.3 112.0 87.7 109030

79 WEST HOLLYWOOD 179.1 206.9 108.8 66.2 73.0 112.1 36256

80 WESTLAKE VILLAGE 68.9 32.1 132.3 99.4 54.4 57.9 8522

81 WHITTIER 60.9 107.6 61.5 93.2 139.6 87.2 87807

39

40

41

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Los Angeles County - last 10 years

0

50

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North Los Angeles County

LANCASTER

PALMDALE

SAN FERNANDO

SANTA CLARITA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Northwest San Gabriel Valley

BURBANK

GLENDALE

LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE

PASADENA

SAN MARINO

SOUTH PASADENA

SIERRA MADRE

42

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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teAdjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North central San

Gabriel Valley

ALHAMBRA

ARCADIA

MONROVIA

MONTEREY PARK

ROSEMEAD

SAN GABRIEL

TEMPLE CITY

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central San Gabriel Valley

AZUSA

BALDWIN PARK

DUARTE

EL MONTE

GLENDORA

43

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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teAdjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East Los Angeles

County

COVINA

CLAREMONT

LA VERNE

POMONA

SAN DIMAS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South San Gabriel Valley

DIAMOND BAR

LA HABRA HEIGHTS

LA PUENTE

WALNUT

WEST COVINA

44

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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teAdjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central Los Angeles

County

BELL

BELL GARDENS

CUDAHY

HUNTINGTON PARK

MAYWOOD

SOUTH GATE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central Los Angeles County

COMMERCE

DOWNEY

LYNWOOD

MONTEBELLO

PARAMOUNT

45

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central east Los Angeles County

LA MIRADA

NORWALK

PICO RIVERA

SANTA MONICA

SOUTH EL MONTE

WHITTIER

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Adj

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rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South central Los Angeles County

CARSON

COMPTON

LONG BEACH

LOS ANGELES

SIGNAL HILL

46

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Adj

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rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East central Los Angeles County

ARTESIA

BELLFLOWER

CERRITOS

HAWAIIAN GARDENS

LAKEWOOD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Palos Verdes

PALOS VERDES ESTATES

RANCHO PALOS VERDES

ROLLING HILLS ESTATES

47

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South Bay

EL SEGUNDO

HERMOSA BEACH

LOMITA

MANHATTAN BEACH

REDONDO BEACH

TORRANCE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West-central Los Angeles

GARDENA

HAWTHORNE

INGLEWOOD

LAWNDALE

48

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Westside Los Angeles

BEVERLY HILLS

CULVER CITY

SANTE FE SPRINGS

WEST HOLLYWOOD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Western Los Angeles County

AGOURA HILLS

CALABASAS

MALIBU

WESTLAKE VILLAGE

49

Orange County This section shows the crime rate trends for Orange County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2015) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2013-15) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.

These cities are clustered geographically into city clusters, and the map shows the clustering of cities for these figures. For each Figure, the scale is typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the bottom value is a city with no violent crime, whereas 400 indicates a city with a violent crime rate 300% higher than the regional average (400 -100 = 300). For a few of the Figures, we had to extend the scale if certain cities had particularly high violent crime rates.

50

Standardized crime rates for cities in Orange County, 2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 ALISO VIEJO 22.2 6.4 0.0 22.4 31.1 28.5 50751

2 ANAHEIM 92.1 137.0 123.3 90.5 221.8 103.4 349471

3 BREA 52.5 80.4 0.0 78.0 76.2 129.0 42043

4 BUENA PARK 84.2 87.3 28.6 85.0 214.2 114.7 83684

5 COSTA MESA 86.9 117.2 21.1 131.9 191.1 164.3 113477

6 CYPRESS 28.4 50.6 0.0 63.1 90.9 68.3 49560

7 DANA POINT 49.3 38.1 0.0 75.0 70.4 63.7 34312

8 FOUNTAIN VALLEY 31.9 45.6 41.7 100.1 104.4 102.3 57392

9 FULLERTON 71.1 85.2 0.0 71.3 154.1 110.1 140771

10 GARDEN GROVE 81.1 96.0 54.4 107.8 171.2 86.3 176041

11 HUNTINGTON BEACH 58.0 62.8 0.0 76.3 85.2 99.2 203233

12 IRVINE 10.6 24.1 18.5 43.4 36.2 63.8 258198

13 LA HABRA 45.1 64.6 0.0 64.8 120.4 77.8 62488

14 LA PALMA 17.6 47.7 0.0 151.4 61.0 55.7 16001

15 LAGUNA BEACH 112.0 55.7 0.0 71.2 118.7 93.7 23485

16 LAGUNA HILLS 33.2 45.5 0.0 55.1 68.6 66.6 31139

17 LAGUNA NIGUEL 20.6 19.8 72.5 36.7 34.5 42.0 66035

18 LAKE FOREST 41.3 31.0 0.0 35.6 51.7 44.4 80798

19 LOS ALAMITOS 15.9 92.5 203.0 94.6 200.9 53.8 11789

20 MISSION VIEJO 18.7 35.5 24.4 33.8 35.9 45.8 98217

21 NEWPORT BEACH 35.3 29.8 54.5 96.2 71.5 98.7 87749

22 ORANGE 30.7 48.1 119.2 80.1 117.6 75.2 140572

23 PLACENTIA 48.1 35.1 0.0 53.6 84.5 51.5 52753

24 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA 25.5 19.7 0.0 19.4 8.4 26.2 49719

25 SAN CLEMENTE 30.7 26.5 36.4 53.1 52.3 42.6 65755

26 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 50.0 44.6 0.0 55.0 67.1 40.3 36666

27 SANTA ANA 130.5 169.1 85.1 57.8 257.1 69.8 337304

28 SEAL BEACH 34.1 22.0 0.0 69.1 67.4 101.0 24800

29 STANTON 94.1 168.1 0.0 71.6 218.4 61.5 38921

30 TUSTIN 46.4 50.6 29.2 56.8 87.3 85.9 81953

31 VILLA PARK 0.0 18.2 0.0 121.4 15.5 41.0 6002

32 WESTMINSTER 82.1 138.9 25.8 116.2 162.9 120.1 92640

33 YORBA LINDA 17.1 11.1 0.0 47.4 23.7 35.3 68698

51

Standardized crime rates for cities in Orange County, average from 2013-2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 ALISO VIEJO ... ... ... ... ... ... 50751

2 ANAHEIM 60.6 99.6 85.2 90.9 116.9 78.3 349471

3 BREA 26.2 35.3 0.0 59.9 38.5 73.2 42043

4 BUENA PARK 47.7 56.6 30.0 51.1 102.4 65.9 83684

5 COSTA MESA ... ... ... ... ... ... 113477

6 CYPRESS 30.1 78.6 14.7 99.6 62.3 78.9 49560

7 DANA POINT 103.2 51.1 119.2 95.5 71.1 73.7 34312

8 FOUNTAIN VALLEY 39.9 77.5 34.3 61.3 114.4 82.1 57392

9 FULLERTON 55.6 72.6 0.0 49.9 100.8 75.6 140771

10 GARDEN GROVE 82.9 83.1 80.8 53.0 131.1 59.7 176041

11 HUNTINGTON BEACH 53.8 72.8 45.7 133.8 110.1 95.9 203233

12 IRVINE 47.0 26.4 50.6 134.6 64.7 65.6 258198

13 LA HABRA 60.9 85.5 37.2 62.6 124.2 75.1 62488

14 LA PALMA 24.9 47.0 0.0 68.0 50.3 44.7 16001

15 LAGUNA BEACH 89.1 64.8 104.6 209.8 96.4 108.7 23485

16 LAGUNA HILLS ... ... ... ... ... ... 31139

17 LAGUNA NIGUEL 16.9 15.1 59.7 19.6 22.1 29.5 66035

18 LAKE FOREST 36.7 29.0 0.0 26.3 37.7 34.4 80798

19 LOS ALAMITOS 98.7 87.5 55.8 136.1 115.5 89.4 11789

20 MISSION VIEJO 54.1 29.8 15.2 68.1 56.1 55.5 98217

21 NEWPORT BEACH 46.1 34.7 24.5 105.5 81.3 95.4 87749

22 ORANGE 77.6 136.3 107.3 105.8 204.6 96.5 140572

23 PLACENTIA 59.7 51.1 59.9 51.4 95.3 49.7 52753

24 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA 19.1 14.9 0.0 13.9 10.3 22.2 49719

25 SAN CLEMENTE 40.8 70.2 113.7 103.5 142.4 98.2 65755

26 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 60.0 38.7 62.5 58.0 65.5 47.0 36666

27 SANTA ANA 100.1 183.0 134.1 107.9 171.6 85.9 337304

28 SEAL BEACH 32.7 44.4 26.3 89.7 59.3 92.4 24800

29 STANTON 74.8 173.4 0.0 173.6 135.2 121.8 38921

30 TUSTIN 43.2 72.8 20.5 70.1 116.9 90.1 81953

31 VILLA PARK 23.5 31.3 0.0 77.2 25.1 41.9 6002

32 WESTMINSTER 44.0 71.3 41.9 126.7 88.1 75.2 92640

33 YORBA LINDA 48.5 17.2 11.2 46.8 26.9 38.9 68698

52

53

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Orange County - last 10 years

0

50

100

150

200

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300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North Orange County

FULLERTON

BREA

LA HABRA

YORBA LINDA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central Orange County

ANAHEIM

LA PALMA

BUENA PARK

ORANGE

CYPRESS

VILLA PARK

54

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West-central Orange County

SANTA ANA

GARDEN GROVE

WESTMINSTER

TUSTIN

LOS ALAMITOS

STANTON

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North beaches Orange County

SEAL BEACH

HUNTINGTON BEACH

FOUNTAIN VALLEY

NEWPORT BEACH

COSTA MESA

55

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South Orange County

IRVINE

LAGUNA HILLS

LAKE FOREST

MISSION VIEJO

RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South Orange County beaches

SAN CLEMENTE

SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO

DANA POINT

LAGUNA BEACH

LAGUNA NIGUEL

56

Riverside County This section shows the crime rate trends for Riverside County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2015) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2013-15) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.


57

Standardized crime rates for cities in Riverside County, 2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 BANNING 198.3 101.9 617.0 171.3 208.0 37.3 31030

2 BEAUMONT 106.6 52.5 54.9 77.1 157.6 69.9 43626

3 BLYTHE 148.6 126.5 126.2 331.2 61.2 146.2 18961

4 CALIMESA 65.9 63.7 0.0 177.9 184.6 114.0 8553

5 CANYON LAKE 25.4 9.8 0.0 34.7 66.9 27.8 11112

6 CATHEDRAL CITY 45.3 99.0 133.1 129.9 275.5 49.1 53947

7 COACHELLA 100.3 123.7 159.7 95.4 243.8 93.5 44953

8 CORONA 22.7 65.3 73.1 80.6 132.3 84.7 163633

9 DESERT HOT SPRINGS 243.0 237.9 589.5 346.3 555.7 57.4 28416

10 HEMET 216.9 225.8 284.8 231.6 306.2 143.8 84030

11 INDIAN WELLS 44.5 0.0 0.0 134.0 105.6 104.2 5279

12 INDIO 228.4 160.1 137.2 111.6 250.9 71.3 87195

13 LA QUINTA 56.8 64.5 59.0 95.7 76.7 125.6 40554

14 LAKE ELSINORE 60.7 86.4 0.0 87.7 228.2 114.5 61871

15 MENIFEE ... ... ... ... ... ... .

16 MORENO VALLEY 75.3 146.2 70.0 124.3 262.8 110.1 205182

17 MURRIETA 14.2 29.9 0.0 56.2 101.8 56.1 109495

18 NORCO 45.4 77.0 0.0 107.5 119.0 98.3 26925

19 PALM DESERT 66.1 86.2 0.0 155.0 121.8 180.7 51847

20 PALM SPRINGS 166.5 193.3 151.5 406.2 334.2 197.9 47388

21 PERRIS 61.3 110.4 95.7 92.3 300.2 71.6 75036

22 RANCHO MIRAGE 80.2 36.0 0.0 209.0 156.0 153.3 18156

23 RIVERSIDE 112.5 175.5 74.1 108.4 252.2 115.9 323064

24 SAN JACINTO 76.9 118.3 0.0 168.2 239.0 121.0 47022

25 TEMECULA 24.4 45.9 21.4 88.1 142.2 99.3 111673

58

Standardized crime rates for cities in Riverside County, average from 2013-2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 BANNING 190.1 64.5 251.6 108.1 108.5 44.2 31030

2 BEAUMONT 56.5 40.1 144.0 67.8 85.8 53.1 43626

3 BLYTHE 279.7 168.5 130.3 226.7 78.0 213.6 18961

4 CALIMESA 53.9 48.7 0.0 95.3 118.3 80.2 8553

5 CANYON LAKE 20.7 7.5 0.0 18.6 42.8 19.6 11112

6 CATHEDRAL CITY 212.3 106.7 258.4 162.4 198.4 65.7 53947

7 COACHELLA 191.7 119.7 233.6 117.8 152.2 80.1 44953

8 CORONA 56.0 52.3 144.9 118.8 94.4 104.9 163633

9 DESERT HOT SPRINGS 419.1 177.1 488.1 367.7 362.1 135.5 28416

10 HEMET 244.3 146.7 164.6 168.8 216.7 131.2 84030

11 INDIAN WELLS 18.2 7.9 0.0 107.7 53.6 85.3 5279

12 INDIO 200.9 169.2 331.5 209.5 246.8 113.7 87195

13 LA QUINTA 66.4 45.2 54.6 110.7 102.8 105.0 40554

14 LAKE ELSINORE 174.8 94.4 241.7 92.2 186.0 85.6 61871

15 MENIFEE ... ... ... ... ... ... .

16 MORENO VALLEY 74.8 166.8 116.5 104.7 198.9 72.3 205182

17 MURRIETA 30.1 24.9 0.0 41.1 75.6 41.7 109495

18 NORCO 92.5 95.8 27.6 88.9 169.4 84.0 26925

19 PALM DESERT 54.1 65.9 0.0 83.0 78.1 127.1 51847

20 PALM SPRINGS ... ... ... ... ... ... 47388

21 PERRIS 241.5 197.0 124.9 251.4 219.7 170.4 75036

22 RANCHO MIRAGE 59.6 18.4 0.0 108.8 80.7 102.8 18156

23 RIVERSIDE 110.4 125.7 94.7 110.4 184.0 101.0 323064

24 SAN JACINTO ... ... ... ... ... ... 47022

25 TEMECULA 15.2 35.0 28.5 54.3 71.4 65.2 111673

59

60

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Riverside County - last 10 years

0

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North-western Riverside County

CATHEDRAL CITY

DESERT HOT SPRINGS

MORENO VALLEY

NORCO

PERRIS

RIVERSIDE

0

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400

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-western Riverside County

BANNING

BEAUMONT

CANYON LAKE

INDIO

MURRIETA

SAN JACINTO

TEMECULA

61

0

50

100

150

200

250

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350

400

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West-central Riverside County

COACHELLA

HEMET

PALM DESERT

PALM SPRINGS

RANCHO MIRAGE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East-central Riverside County

BLYTHE

CORONA

LA QUINTA

LAKE ELSINORE

MENIFEE

62

San Bernardino County This section shows the crime rate trends for San Bernardino County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2015) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2013-15) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.


63

Standardized crime rates for cities in San Bernardino County, 2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 ADELANTO 210.6 158.6 145.0 281.9 168.9 40.3 33005

2 APPLE VALLEY 109.3 75.5 33.2 126.8 169.9 86.2 72173

3 BARSTOW 394.4 322.1 202.0 404.3 356.7 90.2 23700

4 BIG BEAR LAKE 396.8 104.7 0.0 308.6 142.7 157.9 5209

5 CHINO 80.0 66.9 0.0 93.1 140.9 91.1 86344

6 CHINO HILLS 24.2 32.4 0.0 59.7 57.5 51.4 77515

7 COLTON 81.0 154.1 131.7 142.0 396.2 85.5 54503

8 FONTANA 123.0 112.2 34.7 79.1 231.3 62.6 206982

9 GRAND TERRACE 45.1 113.4 191.4 126.9 193.2 62.9 12502

10 HESPERIA 99.6 97.0 76.9 131.8 188.1 71.6 93348

11 HIGHLAND 104.2 115.0 87.0 158.6 254.1 50.9 55011

12 LOMA LINDA 33.3 31.8 0.0 164.4 305.9 86.5 23985

13 MONTCLAIR 146.1 213.1 246.1 140.0 454.9 148.9 38899

14 NEEDLES 169.2 87.3 478.8 343.1 213.7 86.0 4998

15 ONTARIO 81.7 139.0 42.2 112.9 290.8 98.7 170274

16 RANCHO CUCAMONGA 34.1 60.0 40.7 113.0 115.1 76.3 176376

17 REDLANDS 67.4 113.5 67.3 155.0 282.9 166.9 71078

18 RIALTO 105.6 161.1 69.3 141.5 323.3 41.1 103590

19 SAN BERNARDINO 344.3 487.6 486.4 313.3 647.1 101.9 216477

20 TWENTYNINE PALMS 113.4 54.3 183.4 114.1 56.9 48.4 26105

21 UPLAND 78.5 112.5 125.0 159.5 197.1 101.9 76581

22 VICTORVILLE 187.8 202.5 116.4 190.3 236.5 97.1 123332

23 YUCAIPA 54.4 44.8 89.5 105.4 180.6 82.1 53498

24 YUCCA VALLEY 244.9 151.0 0.0 214.6 141.4 92.1 21672

64

Standardized crime rates for cities in San Bernardino County, average from 2013-2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 ADELANTO 478.9 106.2 59.8 234.6 141.0 74.1 33005

2 APPLE VALLEY 103.2 89.5 126.9 126.5 160.3 79.1 72173

3 BARSTOW 182.4 206.6 218.7 168.6 208.9 112.4 23700

4 BIG BEAR LAKE 398.0 93.4 0.0 324.2 143.8 226.0 5209

5 CHINO 126.0 83.6 80.3 130.6 151.9 84.1 86344

6 CHINO HILLS 19.8 24.7 0.0 32.0 36.9 36.2 77515

7 COLTON 124.5 187.3 224.4 192.4 296.0 113.6 54503

8 FONTANA 94.2 124.7 132.8 148.2 138.7 78.3 206982

9 GRAND TERRACE 54.6 103.0 167.1 113.6 227.0 55.8 12502

10 HESPERIA 76.9 65.4 47.3 73.3 111.1 54.3 93348

11 HIGHLAND 84.4 107.4 172.3 78.3 193.8 43.6 55011

12 LOMA LINDA 40.9 42.6 105.6 90.1 174.3 62.4 23985

13 MONTCLAIR 112.9 135.8 131.6 124.3 247.2 112.2 38899

14 NEEDLES 93.3 80.7 374.4 119.4 104.7 74.7 4998

15 ONTARIO 163.3 189.5 154.8 144.9 278.6 97.4 170274

16 RANCHO CUCAMONGA 78.4 65.1 55.6 86.2 115.2 66.6 176376

17 REDLANDS 88.9 78.2 45.7 101.5 146.2 107.5 71078

18 RIALTO 40.5 81.8 19.0 178.3 118.7 86.1 103590

19 SAN BERNARDINO 278.0 427.8 427.2 209.8 384.1 113.7 216477

20 TWENTYNINE PALMS 87.4 36.3 142.4 70.1 45.0 35.6 26105

21 UPLAND 62.8 93.7 43.2 82.2 155.6 76.2 76581

22 VICTORVILLE 136.9 175.2 88.6 124.6 136.2 69.3 123332

23 YUCAIPA 66.8 44.1 36.9 93.8 120.8 65.8 53498

24 YUCCA VALLEY 200.4 115.4 0.0 114.9 90.6 64.8 21672

65

66

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in San Bernardino County - last 10 years

0

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-west San Bernardino County

CHINO

CHINO HILLS

MONTCLAIR

ONTARIO

RANCHO CUCAMONGA

UPLAND

0

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-central San Bernardino County

COLTON

FONTANA

HIGHLAND

RIALTO

SAN BERNARDINO

67

0

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400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North San Bernardino County

ADELANTO

APPLE VALLEY

BARSTOW

HESPERIA

NEEDLES

VICTORVILLE

0

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Eastern San Bernardino County

BIG BEAR LAKE

GRAND TERRACE

LOMA LINDA

REDLANDS

TWENTYNINE PALMS

YUCAIPA

YUCCA VALLEY

68

San Diego County This section shows the crime rate trends for San Diego County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2015) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2013-15) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.


69

Standardized crime rates for cities in San Diego County in 2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 CARLSBAD 41.6 36.4 0.0 68.8 57.5 74.8 113972

2 CHULA VISTA 70.3 98.3 54.1 57.4 142.9 61.1 265215

3 CITY OF ENCINITAS 64.2 46.8 0.0 63.4 65.0 59.3 62909

4 CITY OF LEMON GROVE 168.3 215.7 0.0 40.8 159.4 68.6 26798

5 CITY OF POWAY 22.4 28.2 47.6 49.0 27.7 38.2 50327

6 CITY OF SANTEE 43.0 39.5 41.3 42.9 48.1 62.8 57934

7 CITY OF SOLANA BEACH 41.9 16.2 0.0 106.8 110.5 74.4 13448

8 CORONADO 37.4 4.3 0.0 46.9 31.4 64.0 25138

9 DEL MAR 86.5 0.0 0.0 231.8 74.8 147.1 4346

10 EL CAJON 90.8 112.3 46.0 79.8 162.2 76.5 103942

11 ESCONDIDO 92.2 126.5 110.4 67.7 185.5 79.7 151732

12 IMPERIAL BEACH 115.1 63.8 0.0 59.6 117.2 41.0 27341

13 LA MESA 90.5 115.1 120.3 99.1 179.0 108.4 59676

14 NATIONAL CITY 129.1 254.8 78.8 64.6 247.6 81.2 60768

15 OCEANSIDE 109.0 133.6 122.2 71.6 123.0 105.2 176319

16 SAN DIEGO 120.8 107.3 63.2 78.5 169.0 70.8 1400467

17 SAN MARCOS 57.7 38.9 75.3 62.3 118.4 54.8 95314

70

Standardized crime rates for cities in San Diego County, average from 2013-2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 CARLSBAD 87.6 105.6 50.3 141.1 120.7 105.2 113972

2 CHULA VISTA 46.2 71.0 44.3 107.6 85.5 99.4 265215

3 CITY OF ENCINITAS 56.3 32.1 16.1 41.1 38.0 43.4 62909

4 CITY OF LEMON GROVE 125.6 162.9 0.0 50.7 141.2 50.8 26798

5 CITY OF POWAY 18.3 21.5 39.2 26.2 17.7 26.9 50327

6 CITY OF SANTEE 58.0 41.7 35.6 35.4 68.3 48.3 57934

7 CITY OF SOLANA BEACH 58.6 49.7 51.2 77.1 72.4 48.9 13448

8 CORONADO 23.3 26.0 65.4 76.4 42.5 110.7 25138

9 DEL MAR 88.0 18.5 0.0 92.7 87.0 102.1 4346

10 EL CAJON 37.6 47.3 53.2 78.2 84.6 77.7 103942

11 ESCONDIDO 107.0 94.8 78.9 60.4 171.2 72.9 151732

12 IMPERIAL BEACH 120.9 90.1 101.4 47.6 105.4 39.4 27341

13 LA MESA 54.8 153.7 57.3 112.1 197.3 94.0 59676

14 NATIONAL CITY 191.0 272.8 112.6 97.4 354.6 83.4 60768

15 OCEANSIDE 150.3 193.6 114.6 118.9 128.6 96.2 176319

16 SAN DIEGO 149.0 206.1 122.6 147.4 251.7 109.6 1400467

17 SAN MARCOS 83.6 52.1 48.6 56.6 90.0 42.3 95314

71

72

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in San Diego County - last 10 years

0

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-west San Diego County

CHULA VISTA

CITY OF ENCINITAS

CORONADO

ESCONDIDO

LA MESA

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Eastern San Diego County

CITY OF POWAY

DEL MAR

EL CAJON

IMPERIAL BEACH

OCEANSIDE

73

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North-west San Diego County

CARLSBAD

CITY OF LEMON GROVE

CITY OF SANTEE

CITY OF SOLANA BEACH

NATIONAL CITY

SAN DIEGO

SAN MARCOS

74

Ventura County This section shows the crime rate trends for Ventura County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2015) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2013-15) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.


75

Standardized crime rates for cities in Ventura County, 2015 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 CAMARILLO 46.0 48.6 71.1 69.1 40.7 65.4 67325

2 FILLMORE 196.7 42.2 154.2 55.3 65.8 27.0 15519

3 MOORPARK 31.5 21.3 0.0 46.7 32.4 34.1 35804

4 OJAI 36.8 14.2 0.0 41.9 12.1 33.5 7665

5 OXNARD 113.8 202.6 138.6 114.1 187.1 120.3 207221

6 PORT HUENEME 50.7 117.6 215.1 105.0 131.5 66.2 22249

7 SANTA PAULA 104.0 56.8 77.9 70.5 75.6 43.5 30710

8 SIMI VALLEY 38.3 38.5 18.8 42.9 40.8 47.1 127472

9 THOUSAND OAKS 31.4 19.3 0.0 38.6 36.4 50.0 129976

10 VENTURA 83.2 122.8 43.5 116.5 109.7 144.8 110077

Standardized crime rates for cities in Ventura County, average from 2013-2015

City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 CAMARILLO 46.9 36.8 19.5 60.1 62.6 53.4 67325

2 FILLMORE 85.1 36.4 42.4 79.4 46.4 49.2 15519

3 MOORPARK 40.0 32.7 0.0 43.3 30.8 28.8 35804

4 OJAI 54.1 8.4 0.0 68.1 39.2 43.1 7665

5 OXNARD 150.0 187.4 124.2 146.1 172.8 107.4 207221

6 PORT HUENEME 63.6 106.9 223.6 100.6 70.9 62.8 22249

7 SANTA PAULA 99.2 78.1 21.4 112.3 53.5 71.8 30710

8 SIMI VALLEY 34.6 31.4 70.4 97.9 63.4 60.4 127472

9 THOUSAND OAKS 30.0 44.5 0.0 75.3 59.5 57.9 129976

10 VENTURA 70.4 100.5 94.4 166.5 103.7 136.9 110077

76

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Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Ventura County - last 10 years

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West Ventura County

OXNARD

PORT HUENEME

OJAI

SANTA PAULA

VENTURA

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East Ventura County

CAMARILLO

FILLMORE

MOORPARK

SIMI VALLEY

THOUSAND OAKS

78

NOTES

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Documents

Crime Report for Southern California 2015ilssc.soceco.uci.edu/.../ILSSC_SoCal_Crime_Report_2015.pdfii Crime Report for Southern California 2015 Authors: Graduate Student Researchers: