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CRAFT BEER
Market Insights Brief 2019
2
IntroductionYou’ve seen the news: consumers are drinking less and caring more about what goes into their bodies. But are those headlines just hype or actual reasons to worry?
Unfortunately for craft brewers, our data shows that: • Consumer conversations about craft beer have plummeted 16% since 2017.• In the past two years, the category hasn’t successfully attracted new consumer segments.• Craft beer under-indexes with growing health & wellness trends like self-care, low carb & moderation.
Thankfully, you don’t need a crystal ball to know where the market is heading. Instead, we’ve analyzed 75 million social posts to provide insight into what consumers want, including:• The current state of craft beer and health & wellness trends impacting the market. • The styles of craft beer growing in popularity with consumers.• White space opportunities around flavors & packaging your brewery can leverage.• Influencers that deliver highly engaged audiences that love your products.
Chasing fads won’t help in a changing consumer environment. Discover data-informed strategies for keeping your customers happy and business booming.
3
How we do itSocial Standards is a consumer analytics platform powered by social data. We provide actionable insights to cutting-edge brands and investors who are ready for deeper answers than what boolean queries and panels can provide.
Our data provides complete coverage of the Beverage Alcohol market, enabling us to benchmark performance, identify relevant influencers, and spot emerging trends & threats before anyone else.
Where do we get all this data? We used the Social Standards platform to:
Capture 75 million public Instagram posts
Analyze consumer conversations, organizing by market vertical
Contextualize data against BevAl-specific benchmarks
Quantify the relationships between topics
4
Before we get to the data, let’s make sure we’re all on the same page about what it means. Here’s some of the core terminology you’ll encounter in this report:
• Conversations – Authentic public consumer conversations on social media.
• Growth – The number of social media conversations about a specific topic within a market vertical over time. This is often a leading indicator of a rising or falling trend, product, or brand.
• Strength of connection – The significance of the relationship between two topics, generally reported as an index or percentile. For this report, we’re using percentiles because they fall on a fixed scale (0 to 100), making it easier to compare results. Here’s how we interpret the numbers:
• 61st percentile or above = relatively strong relationship• 40th–60th percentile = normative relationship• 39th percentile or below = relatively weak relationship
Source: See Appendix
Key Concepts
With Beverage Alcohol overall on the decline, there’s good reason for craft brewers to be concerned.
Let’s take a look at how craft beer is faring in the market and which consumer segments are flocking to brews that are infused with a mix of tradition & innovation.
5
State of Craft Beer
6Data Source: Nielsen total sales – US, Sept 2017–Sept 2019
The good news: sales are (slightly) up
Both beer and craft beer sales were slightly up this summer, with craft beer outperforming the category.
That’s great news, but don’t celebrate just yet.
Since 2017
+4%Beer
+5%Craft Beer
Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19
$1.6
$3.2
Tota
l US
Sal
es in
Bill
ions
Since 2017
+4%Beer
+5%Craft Beer
Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19
$1.6
$3.2
Tota
l US
Sal
es in
Bill
ions
7
2 Year Trend
BevAl -6%
Beer -9%
Craft beer -16%
Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – US, Oct 2017–Oct 2019
The not-so-good news: consumer interest is down
Consumer conversations on social media are down for both beer and craft beer. That’s cause for concern because social conversations are often leading indicators of large-scale market trends.
Craft beer isn’t losing revenue yet, but stagnant growth, increasing competition, and decreasing consumer interest could spell trouble for brewers.
0
400
800
1.1
2.2
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19
US C
onversations by Category
in Thousands
US
BevA
lCon
vers
atio
nsin
Milli
ons
0
400
800
1.1
2.2
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19
US C
onversations by Category
in Thousands
US
BevA
lCon
vers
atio
nsin
Milli
ons
0
400
800
1.1
2.2
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19
US C
onversations by Category
in Thousands
US
BevA
lCon
vers
atio
nsin
Milli
ons
8Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – US, 3mo rolling average, Jun-Aug 2019
Craft beer’s core consumersLooking at the norm for BevAl, it’s clear that beer is fairly middle of the road. In comparison, craft beer skews older and white.
This demographic makeup has held relatively steady since 2017, suggesting that craft beer has a stable fan base but hasn’t successfully converted new consumer segments.
Read as: Craft beer is in the 71st percentile for 30-44 year-olds, meaning that only 29% of BevAl topics are more talked about by this consumer segment.
Why use percentiles? They account for differences in raw volume and create an apples-to-apples comparison base, making them a more objective way to view the data.
BevAlNorm
BevAlNorm
78th
55th
52nd
46th
53rd
46th
31st
53rd
85th
24th
71st
63rd
31st
62nd
65th
63rd
Male
21-24
30-44
55-64
Hispanic
White/caucasian
Under $20k
$50K+
Beer vs. Craft Beer
BevAlNorm
BevAlNorm
78th
55th
52nd
46th
53rd
46th
31st
53rd
85th
24th
71st
63rd
31st
62nd
65th
63rd
Male
21-24
30-44
55-64
Hispanic
White/caucasian
Under $20k
$50K+
Beer vs. Craft Beer
BevAlNorm
BevAlNorm
78th
55th
52nd
46th
53rd
46th
31st
53rd
85th
24th
71st
63rd
31st
62nd
65th
63rd
Male
21-24
30-44
55-64
Hispanic
White/caucasian
Under $20k
$50K+
Beer vs. Craft Beer
BevAlNorm
BevAlNorm
78th
55th
52nd
46th
53rd
46th
31st
53rd
85th
24th
71st
63rd
31st
62nd
65th
63rd
Male
21-24
30-44
55-64
Hispanic
White/caucasian
Under $20k
$50K+
Beer vs. Craft Beer
BevAlNorm
BevAlNorm
78th
55th
52nd
46th
53rd
46th
31st
53rd
85th
24th
71st
63rd
31st
62nd
65th
63rd
Male
21-24
30-44
55-64
Hispanic
White/caucasian
Under $20k
$50K+
Beer vs. Craft Beer
BevAlNorm
BevAlNorm
78th
55th
52nd
46th
53rd
46th
31st
53rd
85th
24th
71st
63rd
31st
62nd
65th
63rd
Male
21-24
30-44
55-64
Hispanic
White/caucasian
Under $20k
$50K+
Beer vs. Craft Beer
All that industry chatter about consumers drinking less isn’t just hype.
Let’s find out what’s driving consumers to change their drinking habits and whether craft beer is at risk.
9
Health & Wellness in BevAl
10Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – US, Oct 2017–Oct 2019
Health & wellness is on the rise in BevAl
Currently, conversations about health and wellness topics are up 63% in relation to Beverage Alcohol.
What’s more, 5% of BevAl conversations mention topics related to health & wellness. To put that in context, IPA commands roughly the same amount of attention.
+63%Beverage Alcohol
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19
H&W
Con
vers
atio
n Sh
are
(US)
+63%Beverage Alcohol
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19
H&W
Con
vers
atio
n Sh
are
(US)
11Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – US, Oct 2017–Oct 2019
Diet, moderation & self-care dominate
Looking at craft beer specifically, health & wellness topics make up a small but growing share of consumer conversations.
While consumers aren’t yet talking much in terms of low ABV, it’s clear that they’re interested in non-alcoholic and low carb options, even when they’re enjoying a brew. But are these trends that craft brewers should care about or just a fad like the “IBU bombs” of days past?
+183%Non-Alcoholic
+145%Low Carb
Since 2017
+427%Self-Care
+140%Low ABV0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19
Shar
e of
US
Con
vers
atio
ns
abou
t Cra
ft B
eer
+183%Non-Alcoholic
+145%Low Carb
Since 2017
+427%Self-Care
+140%Low ABV0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19
Shar
e of
US
Con
vers
atio
ns
abou
t Cra
ft B
eer
12Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – Global, Sept 2017–Sept 2019
Consumers are sticking with new drinking habits
Consumer interest in each of these topics has held relatively steady for the last two years, suggesting that these are trends that aren’t going anywhere soon.
In fact, when measuring by repeat mentions month-over-month, consumers are more loyal to low carb (18% average) than to lager, which averaged just 15% over the same period.
Low Carb 18% avg
Self-care 8%
Non-Alcoholic 14%
Low ABV 12%
0%
10%
20%
Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19
MoM
Con
vers
atio
n R
ate
Low Carb 18% avg
Self-care 8%
Non-Alcoholic 14%
Low ABV 12%
0%
10%
20%
Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19
MoM
Con
vers
atio
n R
ate
13
BevA
lN
orm
0
50
100
Self-Care Low Carb Non-Alcoholic Low ABV High ABV
Stre
ngth
of C
onne
ctio
n to
Cra
ft Be
er(P
erce
ntile
)
Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – Global, Aug 2019
Craft beer isn’t keeping up with wellness trends
With the exception of low ABV—which has a normative relationship to craft beer compared to other BevAl topics—health & wellness topics under-index with craft beer.
If these trends continue, that could spell trouble for craft brewers. But there’s also opportunity: Adding low-carb or low-/no-alcohol brews to your lineup could enable you to capitalize on consumers’ search for healthier options.
BevA
lN
orm
0
50
100
Self-Care Low Carb Non-Alcoholic Low ABV High ABV
Stre
ngth
of C
onne
ctio
n to
Cra
ft Be
er(P
erce
ntile
)
Health & wellness may be top of mind, but it’s not the only thing consumers are thinking about when they’re drinking.
Let’s take a look at which styles, flavors, and packaging craft brewers should have on tap to keep up with changing consumer tastes.
14
What consumers want from craft beer
15
Quantify relationships, understand impactBy looking at the strength of the relationship between craft beer and different products and plotting that against product growth, we can better understand the product’s potential impact on craft beer.
Strong connection to craft beer but consumer
interest is down—proceed with caution.
Weak connection and low consumer interest—avoid.
Strong connection—consider continued investment in the product.
Weak connection but consumer interest is growing—could be a white space opportunity.
Average connection & growth—needs further consideration.
Nor
m
0
50
100
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Stre
ngth
of C
onne
ctio
n to
Cra
ft Be
er(P
erce
ntile
)
YoY Growth in Conversations about the ProductBubble Size is Based on Posts per Day
trendline
Nor
m
0
50
100
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Stre
ngth
of C
onne
ctio
n to
Cra
ft Be
er(P
erce
ntile
)
YoY Growth in Conversations about the ProductBubble Size is Based on Posts per Day
trendline
Nor
m
0
50
100
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Stre
ngth
of C
onne
ctio
n to
Cra
ft Be
er(P
erce
ntile
)
YoY Growth in Conversations about the ProductBubble Size is Based on Posts per Day
trendline
16Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – Global, Aug 2019; bubble size represents posts per day
Consumers love light beers
Consumer interest in lighter beer options is growing quickly.
Pale and light lagers hold particular promise, as conversations are on the rise. These styles aren’t currently associated with craft beer in consumers’ minds, making them potential white space opportunities for craft brewers.
Bubble size is determined by posts per day. It reveals that while pilsner and Mexican beer are both popular with consumers, they don’t command the same level of attention as pale lager.
Nor
m
Pale Lager
Mexican Beer
Pilsner
Strong Ale
Light Lager
Porter Amber/Red Ale
KolschAmber Lager
Bock
Brown Ale
0
50
100
-25% 0% 25% 50%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
Pale Lager
Mexican Beer
Pilsner
Strong Ale
Light Lager
Porter Amber/Red Ale
KolschAmber Lager
Bock
Brown Ale
0
50
100
-25% 0% 25% 50%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
Pale Lager
Mexican Beer
Pilsner
Strong Ale
Light Lager
Porter Amber/Red Ale
KolschAmber Lager
Bock
Brown Ale
0
50
100
-25% 0% 25% 50%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
17Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – Global, Aug 2019; bubble size represents posts per day
Bold beers are crucial to craft
These flavor-forward brews are all strongly associated with craft beer.
IPA still commands the most consumer attention, but interest in flavored and fruit/vegetable beers is on the ascent.
Nor
m
IPA
Pale Ale
Belgian-Style Beer
Wheat Beer
German Beer
Flavored Beer
Fruit/Vegetable Beer
Seasonal Beer
50
75
100
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
IPA
Pale Ale
Belgian-Style Beer
Wheat Beer
German Beer
Flavored Beer
Fruit/Vegetable Beer
Seasonal Beer
50
75
100
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
IPA
Pale Ale
Belgian-Style Beer
Wheat Beer
German Beer
Flavored Beer
Fruit/Vegetable Beer
Seasonal Beer
50
75
100
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
18Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – Global, Aug 2019; bubble size represents posts per day
Qualities consumers crave
Consumers favor beers with these flavors and qualities, which are also strongly connected to craft beer.
Consumer tastes are shifting to include floral and spicy flavors, but they currently under-index with craft beer.
This represents white space opportunity for brewers looking to change up their product mix.
Nor
m
Crisp
Spicy
Hazy
Floral
BitterFruity
SourHoppy
Dark
Malty
Juicy
Acidic
Dank
0
50
100
-10% 0% 10% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
Crisp
Spicy
Hazy
Floral
BitterFruity
SourHoppy
Dark
Malty
Juicy
Acidic
Dank
0
50
100
-10% 0% 10% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
Crisp
Spicy
Hazy
Floral
BitterFruity
SourHoppy
Dark
Malty
Juicy
Acidic
Dank
0
50
100
-10% 0% 10% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
Crisp
Spicy
Hazy
Floral
BitterFruity
SourHoppy
Dark
Malty
Juicy
Acidic
Dank
0
50
100
-10% 0% 10% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
19Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – Global, Aug 2019; bubble size represents posts per day
Drilling into flavor profiles
While traditional ingredients like hops and barley are getting less attention, consumers are talking more about fruity flavors like guava and tangerine.
TangerineGuava
Yeast
Wheat
Barley
Hops
Brett
Grapefruit
Passion Fruit
0
50
100
-20% 0% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
TangerineGuava
Yeast
Wheat
Barley
Hops
Brett
Grapefruit
Passion Fruit
0
50
100
-20% 0% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
TangerineGuava
Yeast
Wheat
Barley
Hops
Brett
Grapefruit
Passion Fruit
0
50
100
-20% 0% 20%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
20Data Source: Social Standards Market Insights – Global, Aug 2019; bubble size represents posts per day
On-premise options are on the rise
There’s good news for breweries seeking on-premise sales: on-tap and draught options are growing in popularity.
Pitchers have potential for breweries as well. Consumers are talking more about them, but they haven’t yet saturated the craft beer scene.
Nor
m
Draught
On-Tap
Can
Growler
KegFlight
Stein
To Go
12-pack
Bottle
Pitcher
0
50
100
-25% 0% 25% 50%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
Draught
On-Tap
Can
Growler
KegFlight
Stein
To Go
12-pack
Bottle
Pitcher
0
50
100
-25% 0% 25% 50%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Nor
m
Draught
On-Tap
Can
Growler
KegFlight
Stein
To Go
12-pack
Bottle
Pitcher
0
50
100
-25% 0% 25% 50%
Impo
rtanc
e to
Cra
ft Be
er
YoY Growth Relative to Craft Beer
Brewing up excitement for a new product is a lot easier when you can leverage influencers who speak to the right audience.
Let’s look at how to approach the vetting process using some example influencers whose audiences are craft beer fans.
21
Craft beer influencers
22Data Source: Social Standards Influencer Insights – Global, Aug 2019
Identify influencers whose audiences are into craft beer
Evaluate potential influencers based on goals like engagement (likes & comments) or growth, not just follower count.
All of these example influencers’ audiences are craft beer fans, but @saltncopper and @dallaskicksass are growing in popularity. If you’re looking for engagement, however, @spoonfulofsandiego is the way to go.
Norm
90th
62nd73rd88th
Craft Beer
Like RateComment Rate
Growth Rate
@saltncopper
Norm
96th
57th65th70th
@dallaskicksass
Norm
94th
67th66th55th
@nbptfoodie
Norm
97th
80th78th59th
@spoonfulofsandiego@spoonfulofsandiego@nbptfoodie@dallaskicksass@saltncopper
Norm
90th
62nd73rd88th
Craft Beer
Like RateComment Rate
Growth Rate
@saltncopper
percentile
23Data Source: Social Standards Influencer Insights – Global, Aug 2019
Dial in your target audience
Looking to target 25-29 year-olds? Go with @dallaskicksass. Want to reach Asian American consumers? @nbptfoodie is your best bet among these example influencers. Other qualifications you might consider are location and interests (e.g., sports or trivia).
@spoonfulofsandiego@nbptfoodie@dallaskicksass@saltncopper
12th13th84th89th
21st50th16th77th
21-24 y/o25-29 y/o30-44 y/o
45+ y/o
African AmericanAsian
HispanicWhite
@saltncopper
Norm
12th13th84th89th
21st50th16th77th
21-24 y/o25-29 y/o30-44 y/o
45+ y/o
African AmericanAsian
HispanicWhite
@saltncopper
percentile
Norm
10th61st74th89th
47th
1st77th
@spoonfulofsandiego
Norm
10th11th90th57th
71st2nd85th
@nbptfoodie
Norm
20th80th68th50th
64th48th46th37th
@dallaskicksass
24
All of these influencers' audiences are similar in terms of popularity—meaning that they're likely to have a similar impact in terms of network size.
If you're hoping to go viral, @spoonfulofsandiego and @nbptfoodie are the best choices because their extremely active audiences are most likely to post and share your message.
Data Source: Social Standards Influencer Insights – Global, Aug 2019
Weigh the potential for virality
@spoonfulofsandiego@nbptfoodie@dallaskicksass@saltncopper
Norm
70th77th
@dallaskicksass
Norm
94th80th
@nbptfoodie
Norm
100th79th
@spoonfulofsandiego
Norm
80th78th
Audience activityAudience popularity
@saltncopper
Norm
80th78th
Audience activityAudience popularity
@saltncopper
percentile
TakeawaysConsumer tastes are changing, which can be a threatening prospect. The good news? Every market shift is an opportunity for innovation.
The data suggests that craft brewers should:• Include low-carb or low-alcohol offerings to leverage
rising health & wellness trends. • Showcase lighter beer options within their assortments.• Invest in on-premise options like draught brews.
From marketing to R&D, our data can guide your biggest business decisions. Contact us for info on how your brewery can leverage these and other industry-disrupting trends.
25
26
Have questions?Craft breweries can’t afford to ignore consumer trends. Our Market Insights and Influencer Insights tools are designed to give you data-backed insights into:
Which buzzy new trends pose a real threat to your brand & which are prime white space opportunities
How to craft compelling messaging that speaks to craft beer consumers
Which of your products or competitors stand to win—or lose—thanks to industry shifts
The consumers most likely to defect to new trends—plus tactics for retaining them
How to craft data-driven influencer campaigns that actually move the needle
For info on these and other questions you can answer with Social Standards—or to request the data & charts from this report—please get in touch!
Social Standards bridges the gap between social media and market research by capturing every market-relevant public social post on Instagram & Twitter, organizing the data by market vertical, and
benchmarking it for comparative analysis. The result is a platform that enables users to unlock deep, contextualized insights into every brand,
product, and trend consumers talk about on social media.
If you have any questions about this report or would like to see a demo of the Social Standards platform, please contact us!
© 2019 Social Standards, Inc.
28
AppendixHere’s how we calculate strength of connection:
• First, we choose a topic to explore, like ‘hard seltzer.’• Next, we analyze how many times a second topic like ‘carb consciousness’ is mentioned alongside
hard seltzer to find the penetration or share. • Then we divide that penetration by carb consciousness’s share of the average topic within BevAl. • Finally, to find the percentile, we rank the share on a scale from 0 to 100 to determine how carb
consciousness’s share of hard seltzer conversations compares to the market at large.
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