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CENTER FOR WEATHER FORECAST AND CLIMATE STUDIES - CPTECCPTEC
Cachoeira Paulista – SP - BRAZIL
IMPROVEMENTS IN SEASONAL PREDICTION AT CPTEC - 2008
by
Pedro L. Silva Dias (1) (2)
(1) National Laboratory for Scientific Computing
(2) University of São Paulo - Brazil
Based on information provided by Christopher Cunningham - Climate Prediction Group Team Leader
Climate Prediction Group
Msc. Ana PrestesCarlos Renato
Msc. Christopher Cunningham (Team Leader)Gisele Fernandes
MSc. Helena BalbinoMsc. José PesqueroMsc. Lincoln Muniz
Coupled Modelling
Dr. Paulo Nobre
Operational Division
Dr. Marcelo Seluchi
Modelling Division
Dr. Dirceu Herdies
Main Researchers:
Dr. Chou Sin Chan – Dynamic Downscaling
Dr. Iracema Cavalcanti – Climate Dynamics
Dr. Jose Marengo – Climate Changes
Dr. Silvio Nilo – Convection
Dr. Caio Coelho – Statistical Modelling
Comitee for Interactionbetween Research and
Operation
Dr. Paulo Nobre
Scientific Advisor
WHO IS THE CLIMATE PREDICTION GROUP?
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Climate monitoring
DAILY DATA FLUX OVER BRAZIL AND SA Maintenance of the flux and products based on it
CPTEC´s AGCM, T062L28• KUO, persisted SSTA, predicted Atlantic and/or Pacific (15 members ENSEMBLE)• RAS, persisted SSTA, predicted Atlantic and/or Pacific (15 members ENSEMBLE)• GRELL, persisted SSTA, predicted Atlantic and/or Pacific (15 members ENSEMBLE)
Numerical Seasonal ForecastNumerical Seasonal Forecast
Currently we run every month:
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Numerical Seasonal ForecastNumerical Seasonal Forecast
All 90 members are combined into a multi-model ENSEMBLE
• CPTEC´s CGCM 10 member ENSEMBLE; RAS convection scheme
Currently we run every month:
Numerical Seasonal ForecastNumerical Seasonal Forecast
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• Regional model (Eta/CPTEC - 40km) 5 members ENSEMBLE
Currently we run every month:
Numerical Seasonal ForecastNumerical Seasonal Forecast
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALINGSTATISTICAL DOWNSCALING
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STATISTICAL DOWNSCALINGSTATISTICAL DOWNSCALING
Monthy Meetings for Climate Prediction
Since March/2007 the VISITview® has been used during the monthly meetings
It allows the remote interaction between participants
http://visitview.cptec.inpe.br/clima/0908/reuniao.html
For more information http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visitview/
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Dissemination of Information:Dissemination of Information: Infoclima
Joint work with the National Institute of Meteorology
Seasonal ForecastSeasonal ForecastSMS is an application that enables users to run a large number of programs which may have dependencies on one another
SMS is SMS is an application that an application that enables users enables users to to run run a a large large number number of of programs which programs which may have dependencies on may have dependencies on one anotherone another
Supervisor Monitor
Scheduler(SMS)
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We upgrade to a version with 2m-temperature
A long run DERF-style was processed
So far DJF and JFM are ready
Run characteristics• Kuo cumulus convection• From 1970/1971 to 2000/2001• 10 members ENSEMBLE• Grid histories over South America• Observed SST• 2m-temperature
GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER -- OMMOMM
MSSS – PRP - DJF
MSSS – SAT - DJF
GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER -- OMMOMM
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GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER -- OMMOMM
New web page, new forecast products
Skill scores in agreement with theOMM standards
SUMMARYSUMMARY
The Climate Prediction group is going through a re-organization in order to be more productive and improve the quality of the forecast
CPTEC has been recently accepted as Global Producer Data Centre. This will allow us provide better support to the climate and user community.
High quality and effective way of communicating the forecast to the users is as important as producing the prediction itself
CPTEC collaborates with other institutions in order to improve the seasonal forecast products to the final user