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Center for Weather Forecas/ng and Climate Studies (CPTEC)
Na/onal Ins/tute of Space Research (INPE)
BRAZIL
Iracema F.A. Cavalcan/
Climate Simula/ons of Precipita/on over South America and Teleconnec/ons in the
Southern Hemisphere
Simula/on of Precipita/on • CPTEC/COLA CPTEC AGCM • HADGEM2 HADCM3 HADGEM1
• Regional models – ETA, PROMES, LMDZ
• GPCP
Simula/on of teleconnec/on CPTEC/COLA AGCM HADGEM2 Reanalyses NCEP
Simula/on of the annual cycle of precipita/on CPTEC AGCM and regional models
Two main modes of variability in the SH
EOF1 : Southern Annular Mode or AAO
EOF2: PSA Correla/on aolr SACZ X v
Life cycle of South America Monsoon
• From: Raia, A., and I.F.A. CavalcanP, 2008: The Life Cycle of the South American Monsoon System. J. Climate, 21, 6227–6246
Identification of onset and demise of SAMS
Based on the modified criterion of Fasullo and Webster (2003)
TZUN
-1
+1 Onset: positive index
Demise: negative index
Advantage : Use of humidity rather than precipitation- the humidity field is better simulated than the precipitation
onset demise
REGIONAL MODELS
From CLARIS LPB project -‐ Europe-‐South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin
ETA-‐ BRAZIL (HADCM3) LMDZ-‐ FRANCE (IPSLA) PROMES-‐ SPAIN (HADCM3)
+ 4 regional models
OBSERVATIONS: GPCP
CONCLUSION
• CPTEC AGCM and HADGEM2-‐ES simulate the main teleconnecPon paZerns (SAM and PSA)
• Dipole precipitaPon paZern is represented by both models
• CPTEC AGCM represents well the life cycle of SAMS
• Annual cycle is beZer simulated in regional models
• CPTEC AGCM needs further improvements, mainly to reduce the negaPve bias over South America.
• Analysis of other CMIP5 models –precip. & teleco.