46
CLcqua uCJflqU © UOtCC !1J to IIJC 2OflLCC uot to cxccq tMo bI.1bp2 urnA pc dnotcq iitponi cbJc!t bcuii1ou bLoAqcq ipt njj © 1ÔÔ2 pA ypincc uq KCUUtP ooj vjj LIJ1t2 LccLAq 2POLt 2GCt!01J2 oj tcct LC tpO O tJJC fltjJ0!2 ffuq UOt tJIO2C 0 tJIC WtJOUVJ BflLIT 0 ECOUOUJIC IC2CLCW PJtQLU1t0UJ E!IJUCG uq N1CL0CCOU0UJ1C' uq J0UC1VLA couounc quA ob!u!ou cxbLccq cqct KCLAG UC 0J IJ h1JC!C0 JJJ2 bvbcL e bi.t o J4BEL icm.cp bLouJ2 !u nuqL bouaopb O tJJ CCUtL 0L ECOUOW!C bOJICA jccicp 9 wuoLq flUACLtA uq ipc t tp C01JCLCUCC ,JqOI1CWLA bOJICA !' CJJTnJU JUUCIVJ EUAL01JUJCUt,. jicjq LCJJ -4 1ÔÔ2 2c!cucG jonuqtou LtcnJJA cJuoicqcq vu c9LJ!CL Ac12!ou o b9bL bI.c2Gutcq OL QUJJU uq EflL0bCU LJJG flUjACI2JtA 0j C1!OLUI1 BCLJCG1CA uq tpc jpouj bLoAiqcq CXbGLt LCCLC 222WIJC UIJCJ flbboLL L0W iJJC U1qJCX J0I1Uq0U IJJC CCIUCL qACC 011 CLJ!CL qc Q11U #4C VPIJe BL!IJ DoA!Ce 1'1uJ' i0 uq O!011m OJIACI 4OU1J9U 1CIJtC!U 0L pcjb uq 2fl C2t!01J2 j)UJOIIJX JXJ0L OCLCc1 AJ1WpJC 9uq CXtCU!AC LCGLC 2JJqU JP4CC JçopwJJc jpoum LCU1 FMLCIJCC 2IJWWC!2 b! AOICJCCV uq fiQ tJJUJC V!" 2WIJJCA }ICJ1GL JC1IAGU oiicic 19CIJLq AJI2tOU1 Vll' JC1tL iniA Thà2 c"p'q iw on 1020 CpI12CU2 VACIJnC ivnowir BflBEVfl OI ECOMOIIC JE2EVKCH JOLJCJU bcL 140 2JÔJ KCUUCtP jçoojj wriucc opaiq EXCHVW3E V1E2 IHE YIIVOE OE EIXED ViBEK /AOJKIW3 bVbEK 2EK1E2

cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    2

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

CLcqua uCJflqU © UOtCC !1J to IIJC 2OflLCCuot to cxccq tMo bI.1bp2 urnA pc dnotcq iitponi cbJc!t bcuii1ou bLoAqcq ipt njj© 1ÔÔ2 pA ypincc uq KCUUtP ooj vjj LIJ1t2 LccLAq 2POLt 2GCt!01J2 oj tcct

LC tpO O tJJC fltjJ0!2 ffuq UOt tJIO2C 0 tJIC WtJOUVJ BflLIT 0 ECOUOUJIC IC2CLCWPJtQLU1t0UJ E!IJUCG uq N1CL0CCOU0UJ1C' uq J0UC1VLA couounc quA ob!u!ou cxbLccqcqct KCLAG UC 0J IJ h1JC!C0 JJJ2 bvbcL e bi.t o J4BEL icm.cp bLouJ2 !unuqL bouaopb O tJJ CCUtL 0L ECOUOW!C bOJICA jccicp 9 wuoLq flUACLtA uq ipct tp C01JCLCUCC ,JqOI1CWLA bOJICA !' CJJTnJU JUUCIVJ EUAL01JUJCUt,. jicjq LCJJ -4 1ÔÔ22c!cucG jonuqtou LtcnJJA cJuoicqcq vu c9LJ!CL Ac12!ou o b9bL bI.c2GutcqOL QUJJU uq EflL0bCU LJJG flUjACI2JtA 0j C1!OLUI1 BCLJCG1CA uq tpc jpoujbLoAiqcq CXbGLt LCCLC 222WIJC UIJCJ flbboLL L0W iJJC U1qJCX J0I1Uq0U IJJC CCIUCLqACC 011 CLJ!CL qc Q11U #4C VPIJe BL!IJ DoA!Ce 1'1uJ' i0 uq O!011m OJIACI4OU1J9U 1CIJtC!U 0L pcjb uq 2fl C2t!01J2 j)UJOIIJX JXJ0L OCLCc1 AJ1WpJC 9uq CXtCU!ACLCGLC 2JJqU JP4CC JçopwJJc jpoum LCU1 FMLCIJCC 2IJWWC!2 b! AOICJCCV uqfiQ tJJUJC V!" 2WIJJCA }ICJ1GL JC1IAGU oiicic 19CIJLq AJI2tOU1 Vll' JC1tL

iniA Thà2c"p'q iw on1020 CpI12CU2 VACIJnC

ivnowir BflBEVfl OI ECOMOIIC JE2EVKCH

JOLJCJU bcL 140 2JÔJ

KCUUCtP jçoojjwriucc opaiq

EXCHVW3E V1E2IHE YIIVOE OE EIXED

ViBEK /AOJ�KIW3 bVbEK 2EK1E2

Page 2: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI�BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2Acbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ 2CPOOJNrn4c pcjq KCWJCIP Joo

flCCG2flj UXC12

Jq B41!2P CI4 uuq 111C J9- C)CICIJ COflth2C jc jo qcn qJc wijj unwpci o,

jpc qXuuic !ucthJA pcwccu CLCqp1pA iuq cowuipncu z ijjntq p) qic

urnqcci pc co o pc LOCL ccouowX o qqcuqn u cxcp1uc-I3Ic bc cu pc AcL) pjr

buAc bCCflpflAC WCF Brn !1. 1V Cot 11ThP.IIU t° ' W° LC2O(ITC2 jCJ C11!P!I! "up

woucQ npo!.c cijA jrnic lpc comxc io qquq cxcpuc bmitc iucrnjj) uA

MOLJ o buqu jopij cbwj umqcci o bobnpa iIiqow uqnJscq-conuu.X

jp bbcL qcn Ipc bLoorwq Cflj1C2 o irnquwrnu pccq cxcpuc u u

VBaLKVCJJ

EXCHVI4OE I�VJE2LllE I'HKVOE OL HXED

J4BEB 1O4J JÔJ

Page 3: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

(iaiY op;iq uq icuaou (j')7EOL 2IGWG1J42 01 pG LflI1JIJc 4JJ xcq CXC}J1J6 LG 1IJJJGL6JJJ? zijG uoq8?

Ju cpi2 bb E.G fIG pç OL moeç comJçLiG2 iç 12 ojj?

o jx€q uJou 2oAGLG.u uçiou2 117 o pipj?. qGAGJobGq jopj

nubLGcGqGuçGq pnç pLocJc?. uq 2cobG }JwG cjj€q iuço dnG2çiou AJp!JJçA

iç 21TjGLG 13G J02262 JAJJGU b€o coJJb2Gq ?GL Guq JJJG2G GAGIJ2 LG uoç

LG2GLAG2 uq pOLLO1A€q 2 pijjiou UJOLG q€GrJq cpG bo qoJJL b IUb€ GXCJJJG LG8 117 4JJG JJ1IJG41G2 jGXJC0 0L GXWbJG eb€uç P1JJ!°17 !'

qi2çJurrJ2ppjG pom joçiiJ 0L A6 qGAGJ0biu conuçLJG2 onuq Jç G21GL

L€ puqe j b€ CGJJ tiJq6 (J2 bGLc€uç ouq CGUfL LcG) 2?keçGuJ pLGJ?.

EffL0BGU y\J0IJGcL?. 2?2cGm (E/\j) }J2 IJOIA GGIJ oLcGq L€LGØ GXCJJUG

EnL0bGu CGUçLJ puje 211GLGq 2!UJ!JL yç€e 117 j5- juqGGq OUCG bLonq

bLGAGuç çJJG iu GbçGLJJpGL J3 yUA Oç}JGL

40 JJAG IJJOLG 2 p1J1lo Cb!c1 J022 cp! GM J3011L2 1J 2 A1J

L17G2 JJAG suq€q 117 8bGccBcrrJL q6pcJG flIG puj oj

G2!GL 2iq JJJJ qOuG j,u? LGCG1J Gj0L2 bG xcprus LcG2 iiiçpiu uLLotA

c'w' GU1G 0 oçiiJ GXCJJIJG LçG2 pCJ( 1IJ40 1ç2 poççj€ 12 JJ0tAGAGL

02GLAGL2 JJAG CJjGq oL bo11c162 LG2OLG puJJç2 ou GXCUG LG Jricçflçou2

yTuqfuJGuc9J& GAGU uç !LJ?. J0U V0L0U8 fl4J6 .MOUqGL cpç 20

COuuGCc!0u GGGU GXCJJIJG LG UJ0AGIJJG1J42 mq mJqGLJAu CJJJJ62 117 GCOJJOIJJ!C

LBçG GLW EGRGL 2çJJJ uçicibç€q poli. qJcITJc !1 offJq G qJAHJG gu?. 2?2fGUJ1C

GM corrjq JmUG p0li A0JcJJG C(TLLGUC). AJJ1G2 lioffJq pG 1J GU2111IJ jociu-

MPGU WG boeç-L 2?2çGm o pc€q GXCUG Lç62 coJJb2Gq l €LJ?. 2GA6Uç1G2

r juoqncou

Page 4: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

5

P 552 OPA!0112J br.€c quuqJu J!' pGç//G€IJ JXGq LçG 117 JJG

bcLJçJG 9Vq JOL 1JJ024 EV\12 CJTLLGIJC!62 Gj0LG I1fT2f piJ7cGLJ LG2 corrjq

2?çG1JJ qoJJrL GXC}J71JG U1G2 corrjq fiCçui€ p? 1JQ orniq cGuJJLG2 oIJ OI1L q€uJcJou WUk 1TCçfTG i" bo2ç-iiL LGccoU M°°q

CJLCcJm2çuCG 1A62 112€ 0 (rr2rrJJ? uLLoll) puqe iiuçpru iipjcp €i€u

JJ}JG pnXii uq €jju Lç€2 corrjq p€ m& pnç LT wo 2?çGm2 p€?. qij€L

o 0L€iIJ Cf1LL€uC? ruq blom!2€2 rn nuJwiç€q moiurç

IJJ0JJ€çLX fIçJJOLi 1J1J0J1IJC€2 pn?JIJ ¶tuq 2GJflU LG2 OL !42 CITLLGUCX IJ 4GL1JJ2

112€ 4JJG €LW2 iY€q 01 GXC}JJIJ€ L€ 0 L66L JJ? 2?2ç€w ! EJJ1cJJ

Epq GxcpnJG LG2: IPG!L obcL ou CO2 9uq pGUG-

26C 017

LG {€GL2 RJJJ JJ62G p2iC2 W /1J2}J p€.iU IIJ4JJ

€C4JOIJ 5 pGJOh J onç 20177€ preic couu€cçioue pGçti€Gu moJJ€çL? bojic?. uq

OL mou€ci bojic prrç wc1u !c CGIJcLJ i b€ujorra017 L€2çLJ1Jç 0 qoLIJG2çJc iUçiou JJJG L€ 12 AJITJ€ JuqJccoL0L42 40 LGOLIJJ IJJ0IJ€4L? iucicficrOu2 w p€ 21TCCG22 p? ocn2rJJ qiL€cçJ?

p€c/AG€u L€2 JJq cp€ qobçou p?k cornJ4Li€2 oj couimou cnLL€ucA E-

2ç?JG bo2G qcfrJcG& uq jwç !e pççj& u? comoLçpJG wiqqj€ onuqO 2bGCiTJç1AG 2flG22 GAGU pLoq-pLJq 2AçGm2 rn CflLLGU EJ2

cL€qpJ JJ2 pGCOUJG iIJCLG2iIJJ?k q!cnJc 1 GLG1TJ GxiJJTUci0U 0

2nqqGuJ?. JCJ cLGqipiJJl* yc cp c!w& uq JJJpJçIJJJGXCJJJJG LG 72 A€LX C02çJ? 0L 0AGL1JWGIJ 0 WJ1J4JIJ MJJGLT 1ç2 b1ow1262 uoç

J02 IJU0CGJJC€ 0 jx€q €XCJJIJG LfçG2 2 JJITUJGL 0 GX1JJbJG2 2JJOff! pc€q

Page 5: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

3

2?JJJboeJnuJ hiç? LGdnJL 4J9ç 4J1G qflj,GLGUGG GlAGGU 4G ilOu1!IJil !UGLI Oil

JJJI2 12 JJ IuGLç bu couqçou 4J79 'JOli Jp)JOL qI2Cfl22 !" COIJUPJTIJOU O IP!2

L2çG UJH2ç GdfI2J OLGIU UOUJJU2J iucGLGec L2çG'3 B11 P! opAon2J2. JUJb11G8

L2cG C2uuOç C2IJG 2Uq c2biç2J 12 UJOpiJ& }JG qOUJGecTC UOUJU2J !UcGLG2c

COUJpJU2çiOU O 2 x€q GXCJJ2U6 L2çG 2uq ob€u c2biç2J w2LJ6c2' j GXCJJ2UG

2JJOLç-LmJ qGLU2Uq 1112ç 22 IU 2 GXOOJ I2-rVJ wOqGJ, JJJG 2cnwpJiU pJoCJc 12

MJ2. C2U JJG OIJJG OA6LUWGU 2IUJbJ2. IOJAGL U6LG2 L24G2 2uq 2c!1IJITJ2cG

qOmG2çC GUJBJO2.JJJGUç 2U ofrçbfr UJf12 jpjj

UO IAil2. OL 4JJ6 LGJ2çIAG bLICG2 o GXboLç2 2IXJ JulbOLça q1rrç IJ 2OL LfflJ

LJiqiçiG2 Iii UOIJJUJ bL!cGa Uq IAU62 }J2LIJJ 2 UJ2JJiGq Jç}J

2 epOCJc !AOJIJq UJ2JG JJG COI1IJçL2. tAOL2G Oj JT IAJJ 2 x€q GXCJJ2UG L2G 2Uq

BGLUJ2UGUç 2JJ 111 qGIJJ2IJq jOL iça GxboLc2 EAGU Hi 2 JGX!pJG-bLJCG JAOLJCJ 2IICJJ

bnLbo2Ga COU2ICJGL bLOpJ6UJ 2CGq p2. 2 COITUçL2. JJ p2. 2 2fTCJqGU 2uq

Wu12 p€ bLGb2L€q o moUGç2L2. bopc2. JOL 2ç2piJ!2çJOU

J.J}G flU2WGU2J bLopjGw JAiçp 2 jx€q GXCJJ2UG L2G 2 4JJ24

J JJJG JUJbOGIJC6 Oj JJOU641L2 boj1c? I1IJ6L X6q GXCJJflJ6 L6

L2462

JJOJAGAGL CL2JAJJU bG2 2JJ2LG UJ2UA O }JG p22!C bLopJGuJa O 2LqGu-A2LiGc2. x€q

CUff24U cpGLGp2. U6CG222c!1J 2 2UJG JØL6 q6A2JfluçOU 2 JAG 2]J2JJ 2GG

0J 2UJ2JJ q2CLGcG qGA2Ju12çOU2 JpG !2 bLGAGUç JUlJgc!OU q1GLGUçJ2J2 jLOW

COUJJçL!G2 12 CL2IAJ1IJ bG JU N}IJCJJ 4JJG OA6LIJI1JGU 2UUOIIUCG2 2 eCpGqfTJG

OUG A2L!2f!OU OU pCGq L2G8 JJ24 !2 COJJJIJJOU 21IJOU p!JJ-!UU2!OU qGAGJObU

JO2c.

2GJJ1IJ L2G2 UJOAG J2LJJGL 2b2Lç GXC}J2LJG-L2cG 2LL2UGWGU 2bbLO2CJJG2 2 L6G

OLGOIL1 261J2& 2Uq 2 UO2ciIJ OU& 2 JJOç CJG2L Ci14 22 flJG OWCJ2J pII2.IU Uq

Page 6: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

CIILLGUCA LJ2JC uq J16L610L6 HO boep:J;ç? O C11LLGUC? LJ2$ bLGw!nm

cxcjj? pccn o cnucxjc? ujc bLdung1 pn içp gjj fLLGAocpJ) xq GXCJJUG LG IJJGLG J2 Ho

ux uq uo GxbGcq o cpøiJG flIJGL AHLJG GXCHUG LH !I1LG2 bHLiç? uocq uo yojq

B TU GLUJ O C11LLCUCL y JJJ!2 p01J2 qou !ULç-LH6 €diiiji MJJGU GXCpVU6 bUL!f

J°' 0 MO CJILLGJJCH2 y uq cxlcnj cxbcoq bGLcGuf WCLGU2G rn fG bLJcc o CffLLGUC?

0UU] "q !LT/L!cG LGcJWç!0IJ p?k bLçu€L2

9 imb1? p€iL oti.u 6WcrGuc?. coça LG (LJpcJX) Lcucc€q pA iuçGLu-

qJ2çLipf1cJoU8 bojrçicj 2JqGbAmGua iJq qGqt6ijJç coç C01111BGLCJ boJicJG2

}!2CUI bopcA LG2bouqa 2JfipjA iJq mA uçij rnJqG2JLpJG !JJcGL6IJGLUcioIJJ

p6cU€ 20 qJcnJc juq oçjJ€L bopcA cu 2çGb uo

JGL1UJLJ tLOW fl2iU 1JJOJJ6çLA 2çpiJi!OU bojjcA J2 pULq joL OA€LUUJGJJ

cou.o o qoiiiçc uiouK flbbk1?G 1G220U 2 133GB 2 C11LLGUCX2 6xcpu

2rthbJA 0 UJ0JJA JJOIJJG CJILLGUCA oiijq q€bL€cç€

JJ2 IJO CJJOJCG pJiç JJ0li. LGHGLAG Jo2262: L6I2Gq pITIA pcj

J02262 O oLGJ J-6XcJJtJJ6 L62€LAG2 yiiq oAGLum€J.Jc coiiJmiççGq o o xq LçG

enbbjA Jj2 pGC1I2G UCdH!2J0U2 o qouJ6acc pouq t€ €xcjA O2G p

qow6eçic UJOUGA wlJq 0IJ2 JJJJG 0A€LIJW6U2 o !UcL€2G

4JJG bLocGcqa pioq uq cpGLGpA LG2OLG cpciL iuiçij boqopo pjuc€ p€ç€su

CGIJçLJ IJJ( 0L 0L€1JJ CJTLLGIJCA x€q GXCJJJJG L€ JJJGA JJ€IJ !JJA62c

J04IJ 6XCJJJJG LUç& GUç2 2!IJJBIA86JJ 4}JG!L GXCGB8 WOJJGA pojqp 4JJG JJOIJJG

JJG iucGLG2c LG q0!A1J 2 JU CJ026q-GCOIJOIJJA iuoq€j 01. a tonJq pUbbGu J1IJGL

q62JLG bLGAJJiuW jOLG1J L9ç6 0 !Uc6LGac }IJ' P!qq!"UJLJ(G bnLcjrn2G oj qowGecJc 2scnLic!G& iioirJq J6AG bGobJG pojqu 11101.6 IJJOJJGA

bojicA yuA GxbmJq UJoUGA 2rrbbJA ot €xmbj& pA gu ob€u-

cJOIJJG2çJC U6L62 L62 L6 qç€uup€q U04 pA qoiu€cc W0U6çLA

Page 7: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

2

p€çGGU UJOUGfL7 boJ!c?. IJq JJG GXCJJJG iç

JJJJII8 26L1J1G !IJcGLAGUc!OU CIJ qo J!ccJG IJ?cJJ!U pLGJ

p uo crruGucA IeJ& GiU amjj €jpcc iiioirq q2bbGL

o qç€c (26G ET!2O1 T8) o C0f1L2& J 6XCU€ L€2 corrjq pG 1LLGAOCpJ?

20WG imbcç EWb!L!CJJ }JO!AGAGL cJJT8 GjGC 26G11J2 pG AGL?. 2WJJ uq qJcr1Jc

uq pç jçcqu GdniAJGucG y1J2 2çGL1pGq !IJcGLAGUc!OU CIJ IJ }JGOL2. JJAG

cpc cffLL6uc?-J4aJc WJG8 pomG- irq oL U-cJTLLG17c pouq imbGLjGc efrp2ççnç€&

017 !JJc6LG2c nq xcpw€ 1uç62 JLJ1& rnq€i 4JJG fNo 22nLubc!ou2

U04 CJJUG L€Jc!AG IJJ0UG? 211bbJ!G& 2cGLJpGq !IJcGLAGIJc!01J2 CIJ }JAG ouj? moq€ç

j€q 1IJ4GLAGUç10U obGLiou2 LG JL6JA 2W0JG iq UJJLLOL2 p€crr qo

JJJG cç 18 OL JJ ULG IJq 4GIJiOU 20JJJGçiWG2 LGCG!A& 2GL-

C0il f1810IF

J0rILJJJ18Ja uuq bojc?uiij€ia bbL€c1uç JJG qaçucçou 18 8OITLCG 0 LGç

bLG8e 916 2cGLIJ16q L9JJGL cJJ9JJ UOU2GLJGq IUçGLAGIJçIOU2 JJJG ,9TJJ1LG 0 W9IJA

wou€ anbbj jyG A92 WoLJ o !UcGLA6Uc!017 Gb2oqGe LGboLçGq iu juuci(ci) in tE4J1C}J C986 0LG1JJ GXCJJ9IJG LU9LJC6 ObGL9çiOU8 qo Gq iuço qowG2çJc

8nbb1162 JU 9 3O3 UGq !UcGLA6Uc!017 ObGL9ç!OIJ 0A6LUWGU OUJ?t

0LG1J-CfILLGUC2 pOIJq2 717 bui€ p9nq& 6LG 8 170 on LGJ9çJAG mou€A

CrzLLGIJC? pouqa' JJJG IJG GjGCç 12 o pouJ6- uqqomGecic IJJ0UGç9L?. 98G 4JJL0IT}J 9 2!WffJc9UGOJT2 uq Gdrr9J brrLcpeG o qouJGaçic-

9Uq JJGJJ (ç) 8JGL!J!!U (m7qou) 4?}JG bOcGUc!9J COUçL9CçJOIJ9LA 6jGcç °''

1ç2 6XCJJ9UG L9IG pX (ci) 2GJU 0L6!U GXCJJUUG LG2GLAG2 tOL qouJG2cic W0UGA

GXCJJ91J6-IJJ9LJCGç iucGLAGuc,OIr cP!2 Th€0 1ucGLAGuçJ0u 9 0AGLUIIJGU enbbolç8

}JG GXCJJ91JG L9G tiucpollc r1ll?. C0UJIU1ç411J UJ0IJ6ç9L) bopc? p2. nu

p3 bL9CICG AlIJqGL pocp pc€q 9uq 0Uç!1J L9G2 CGUL9J 9UJ(2 oçGu cL2. !UUffGUcG

!IJIGLAGIJ1!0IJ

Page 8: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

Q

bLic€-JGAGJ flJ2çpJJJç? EOL 2flC}7 COmJL!G& JXGq LG8 JJAG o u-LGBOU OL b€iii bb11G9 4O COmJçL€ IJGL b€Loq2 O

COIJOJJJC BOJJCIG2

GAGIJ OLG2JJ 2rrpaGdrrGiJç 4GmbcçJou ofloli. GxcGe2iAGJA 6xburouL?. wcLoG-

UJA 2€LAG 2 g COUJIJJ!çUJGIJç JJOMJIJ OAGLUUJ6IJ L62!2ç IJq

prrç pc iq€ mbj€: vLi uuorrnc€q bojicA oj b€u GXCJJtJJ6 LGqcoue o bLiAçG 2GCçOL jj.112 qi2cibrnG wi.rniiu cow€ iii mu?. joLm2

OLIJG J GXCG22IAG 0AGLUWGU pnqç q6ciça OL u iiW mq bucG eGc!u

iUjJçiOU C1TLLGUC2 IAJJJ JJGJb LG2LU qol.uG2çic ii.qJçiou bLGe2nL€ IAJJGJJGL JJG2G

JJJG e€couq moL LJOUJG OL x€q Lç J2 b€iuCJJ1J€ L€8

pGJrGj2 WoAç6q qGeJJGL2 O 4JJG BL6çOU OO2 A2çGW LGdITJLG jx€q €x-

P6 Efi CJ n1Jq6L1JJIJG boJ!ic9j CO1J2GU2fl2 jOL JL€G iJçL-fl JUJJJL

mij€q JJJLJGf JJq IJJ4 GXCJJJJG-L4G JuqrrcGq jnca JJJ COWb€çJçIAGZJG22 iipiu

(En) eç€ma jLOW 4JJG pGJJ€a cpç jocjcq Gxcjniu LG8 IJJXJmG ue LouJJ/pTC}J 0j 4}JG GUfl2I2W OL WOU6çL nuqcciou /AJJJU EffL0bG rnouGXCJJIJG-LçG 2B JJ2 oç€ii q€urnq iWbOL bLoGcçTou LOUJ }J6L oAGLuLuGuc2

!u 22G LJ€ç8. EJTI4JJGLWOL& /AOLJGL uq ULUJ2 JJ(TLç p?. bLoçLcçGq

w€uç uq comborzuqe bLopj€ure bGobJG CG JU JU21TLJIJ JJ1TUJJJ Cbiçj

pc GxcpuG-LçG mc€LçUç? L6ITCG2 iUçGuwçiouJ qaconLG2 !UAG2c-

ocç€q coeç p€ uoç dffuçiq L1oLon2J?. iumjA €cououneçe PGJ!GAG

apoLc-çGUJJ bGL8bGcc!AG mq jOU-ç€LUJ ou& crnJ iupcc qmG yjçponp

JQL2 fJJG rmbLGqcçpjG AOJçiJJç?. O UO!IJ 6XC}I9UG Lç& poçp om

1418 CnLL€JJC?8 OLG!1J AJH6 JJJJGLG L6 4IJJLGG UJJU L€2OU2

QAGU 411J6 2CL1UCG O mOUGçLA LGGOW ijiA eorrjq OAGLUW€IJ GAGL IIU41 410

J,JJG iJIJ468 O JXGq GXCJJ9IJgG L68

Page 9: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

2u12çJUiIJ GXCJJUG LcG2

q€LçuqnJ o bornç pJpjrpç LGJ LG2OU iip?. corruçu JJAG

cbiçj JJJLJ.CGç2 }J2 iirnq JXJU GXCJJIJG LcGe HJJbO22!pJ6 yu nu-

rc 12 drnçG IALOU poiii€t o eb6cçcrrJL Gxbu2Jou o .IA0LJq

o 2bGcrrjiAG ou IJJ1221AG 2CJG

BIIL2IIJç Oj EflL0bG 2J1JJG LULJG JqGJ 8A2416U3 pGCIJJG UJFICJJ IJJOLG M1jUGLJG

uoçpj? JIJ }JLJJC€ 1J JçJ? 2 COULOJ2 tAGLG 2pGq qflLJLJ cjJ wc I0O2 JIJ

J3 D'!" 142 GLJA ?GL2 JG EJAI IA9 2!unILI?. apJGJqGq pA cbiçj COULOJ2

2AçGur T UJ22IAG O 2bGCcTjciA6 2t!6bç i 9tiA JJ IJquq Jç pcm€ rwboa2ipJG fo BLG0U ooq 2 u AotiGq qif12ctpJ6 bc/A6JC CHLL6UCJG2 GC1JJ6 IJJI1CJJ UJOLG AJ1JUGL9JG 2JJ1JIJ jopij Cibij joiiq qGLGfTIçiJJ J1J1JCJJ UJLJG2 O ALAIJ qGL6€2 2LU ID }J6 ic Th20&

GAOJf14iOU OJ ROLJq cbij 1JJLJGç2 2 COfHJçLIG2 pGU J1IU €XC}JJJG COIJLOJ2

JJ}J€L6 12 JIççJ6 dn€2çiou piG2ç 2iIJJ6 C4OL JJ2 pGGU qLUJç1C

JxGq xcptu LG2 ii€i boe2!pJG p€OL& thJJ4 BLGAGIJ2 LGJTLU JJGUJ iJot

LGGLLG 2 c6q piiç qcT2cpJG JJO2G GLG UOç GAGLAqA GA€IJç2 Jj

LGJIIJ1JJ6U2 qiq OCCIIL HTJq€L polJJ 2A2çGIJJ& iApiCp 12 RJJA LG 2OUJGllJJG2

q€nç2cJJG mLJc) pTucçJoLTGq L6JcrAGJA 2uJoocJJJA pGçIAGGU uq JçG JJJ1&

!u!JLJA p IJ€NGq JLGJA 2A2f6m or. bG1u IIJpA bcJD CITLLGIJCIG8 qoJJL Bç}JU BLGccOIJ ooq LGGIJJGUr

ELOIJJ iote mcij jj cocruçI4€8 brnanGq O pcGq €XC}JUG LG2

o piq o bc

rnq€ OL bLAøçG-2GcçoL iIJçiOU Gxb6cfçioue B'"° JJ)cpoLiu bLicG iuuciou jOL uc cioijjA ooq uq bLoAiqiu boç€uçwjjA

Page 10: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

8

B W'1 L&111CIIJ JJG 2G WOUG) 2nbbJ? 6UWJ puJc cu JGb cnLL€ucA2 bLc

3VJGLIJIAGJ? L6CJJ 4p U XCfl6 LG J2 4JJG LGJJ1AG buc6 0J N0 IJ!OIJJ C11LLGUC1

GxbGuelAG 0 2JJ0L !LY cJJG qomGacc CI1LLGUC?.J

CU L12G iIJ€LG2ç LçG2 JGAGJ 20 JJIJJ 2bGCflJçOL2 .tuj juq c bLoppçAGJ?

ab6cnJçiAG 9ØCJC B?1 LGqncIu Ice WOUG4LX p2G es1uJCiGucI? CGU4LJ prnJJC

O COJTL2& CGIJLJ JJJ( IJGAGL tionJq pn?. iib 2G LGbGJIJJ0UG4L? p2& €diij q€boee 4JJG C6IJLJ p1JJC bJffC Cf1LLGIJC? pr bicçic&

wouGçL2 rrçpoLJciGe ouj? u€q 6u0np LG2OITLCG2 o pnA pcJ JJG piJs-boM€LGq

21TpOLqJJG JJ 4JJ€ O}JGL 0J2 O UJ0UGçL? bopc? jo q€uq cnuuc?. bG cp€

p€ç qou 2bGcnJcJAG 0 ¶mk iuuçnq& bLoAJqGq LG uqpuLç€2 yjoaç CGUL9J pJJp }JTThG CCG22 0 GIJ01IJJ 0LGIJJ GXCJJUG LGCOJTLCG2

CGIJLJ pUJ& JJGLG L€ uo u2rruJJomJçpJ€ cGcpuicJ opeçcj€e pqu 6XCUG

D62b!cG }JG 2G€UJ1U U J2UJC pGçMGGU LG2OITLC€2 AmjpJG 40 IJJLJG2 uq

bLçiccqLJ?. 4JJ9ç 0 2WJ C0flIJcL? JJ0I CU ice CGUçLJ pu boeepJA LGeieç,

eç€iu rnJq ebcrijçoie e€ç 2J}J8 OIJ CffLLGIJC?

G2çiUJçG2 bjcG oçj cbçJ oj jj JJGG mJqe u 12 pllJ!ou (ojq-

P!JJ!OU (A J$ 1'' 52 I882 b DI) JUç6LU210UJ y[ou6cL?. EnuqiUAGeçmGuç cbiç o uioLG JJ pjfloU 1Jq J€L juGwGuc IJJOLG Qp0JTç CGIJLJ pUJ2 GUq 0 Jf 0L02 I\U6WGUç LGBOLç€q

coumuq GU0ff LGCOIILCG2 iubG onç toLGiu GXCU€ LGCGLAG2 o gjj pnç

BIJ?. CGULJ JDIJJC Em413€LWOL& }JG JL62 BL!AG pGqG /1Uq2 qo 21JJG-}JUqGqJ

Cçou2 IJ0/I, GXCGG2 J cL!JHOU bGL qA IJJ1LUGL L .LG4€L cJJU cIJGLG2GLAG2

bJçG UX!U 6XCJJØU6 LUç6 JJLIT& JJG qj2 AOJITUJG 0 OL61U GXCJJUG

CL2G8 2 MoLJq cbiçj wuLj.zsçe JJAGLOliW coo pi OL gjjcoíuçL couçGuJ-

V counuou w!ebGLcGbc!ou quç iu woec bobnJL CC0I1U2 0J OL6.U GXCJJU€

3T JJJG 4GCpIJ!CJ LG12!P!II Oxcq GXCJJ9IJgG L62

Page 11: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

0

4JJG LIIU cu pc mJcp2ooq iiçpon; UflC9U !JJfGL-L9G PflCHi iLC-C9JG LJJISGq JIJ4GLA6IJOD JO 24Ob 9 8b6CflJ94AG L1IU pGLGp? PGI! pfl flJ1J2Mo4icG conuiu c9U wur ii boGuz9J J!P!1!c! GIJOLWOUJ fl 4P 00I!P1A GIJ9GP0LL0M 4JJ€ 9lJJOnUç ucqq fO pn pcJc JI2 9G !AçJJOfl LflUU1LJ }JG LJJC O IJ9JOIJ9I iU2OJAGUC)

uA u€q yb JtLG LG6.A OLJ puq 2LJC€ UGJJGL GXCJJ9UG B' G!JJGL conjq

LOL 19b91J coLLG2bouqJu L9JO WLG JQ 9uq MC!cPGL O f}J cOflUL

E0L 4JJG uiçq 4JJG p9€ 12 g 0Mb 9IJ LG2GLAG9 JucjflqJ1J ojq 94 W9LJC A9J11&pcq iu pc jcc o 91A GCLG92G u qcuJ9uq

qouJGeçC pujc Lnu (€ GxbJ9!u p? WoWGUc9L!J? I CGUL9J p9uJ 9C8

y 2bGcnJ9çJA€ 9çç9cJ OJJ CGIJL9J 9UJ2 tOLGJJ LG2GLAG2 C9IJ 26 Oj 9 GUGL9J

tLOIJJ I02 J00Ti9IJJOJTIJc LOITJJ? 6drnA9JGu o GbcGwpGL T00T P°0I'1b L9410 6AGL? ?69L

}JG UJOmJ 0J }JG wOUGç9LX p9e€ Jç9J?2 OA6LIJU3GU tOL Gx9uJbJ& OLLOliG 9IJ

J9pJ6 I tAOuJJJ J9CG L72OIAGUCA RLGLG 1JJG!L brrpJc qp-c°-CI4I, L9çO2 V'P P

ttom bLJA9çG mLjçe 29J nb pJp-botnGLGq wouG?. E€iJ. ot conuçLi€ u

i'qq 9 OAGLUIJJ6U 2 !IJ2OIAGLIc Ic C9U 9JR9?.2 pOLLO!!. IJJOLG LG2OIILC€2

p9up jjoii.iu drncjqA pOLL0.tI tOLG!1J CITLLGUC?. tot !UcGLAGUIOIJ

C€IJL9J 9IJJ2 6UGL9JJ2. c9u ou J!UG 9LL9IJGWGU2 R.cJJ OC}JGL C6UL9J

9 comJL?.2 9piJIc?. W9L29J L62011LC62 !u ice cntt€uc?.e q€ue€ [1oL

pj?. L9çio 92 u€utjA oe yuq cp ewbj€ cowbffLleou !u JypjG j toeeA ins-

cJJ€ 92G CoWtOL9pj?. O/L IOO EAGU OL li.G9JGeç conuçtA

cpG MoLli.9?! oLcnøj flg 9uq GAGU AGXIC& cpG L9çzo oou puq o O EOL BI!'" iw'-'qJJG 4UpJG 2pote AiLcfr9HA 9fl O COITUcL!G2 pq GJJOJTJJ tOtGU GXC)J9U6

ebGciTJ9çii.G je y cowb9Lieou ot cJJG utec 9uq cojmm.Ie !U

2GLAG2 OL 9 IJIIIUpGL O COuIUç G& 9fl O IAJJC}I JJ9q x€q L94262 cw msq€tJYPI6 I t€botçe 2GbcGmpGL 1001 U10U6ç9L?. p026 9JJq tOLGIU GXCJJ9IJG LG-

Page 12: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

JLGJIJq uq y[GX!co J0 CI/ib TOL bOLcfTJ I5 CDb OL J1JAb!u nJq llGq€u pcy LGbOLç CDID C14b oL DGUmLI ELLTC&flI<2 OL JJG L2 dfwr4GL o T00'F CMB !2 JJUJTJ JJ1LG GXCGbç OL

€Cfl pojqpi LG pGjJ1TJJJ2 2G OL JJG joncp dI1LçGL ob€i O1JGçL? iccc P EYT UJGL1JGL LG UO cornscoq JIJ coçj LGGLA6& piçHG2GLAGa rncJnqG bGcirJ DL/U 1pça c jyjj Jç626LA62 bJcGq "çp cp EnLO-CJJJJG LS2GLA€2 ncjnq€ ojq jn€q b OITUCG (6b6wpGL Th

onLcG: JtJJJ OS SC% JAI jocj OLGJ1J CX-

rnç€q

bcr'J Th

,jCçpGLjuqa ro.oGXJCOIcJ?ILGIuq JQJ

43ELJCGE!uIguq JT. JØ4DGULI( 4B6J!flm 151

EbLEBEIC j (bEJcEMJveE2 OE 0Mb)1EOJ'EICM EXCHVJ4CE IcE2EIcAE2 COVbVBED MLLH LHE WO4ELVBA BV2E

T

Page 13: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

I0

tA6 JJAG 2G€U 4O €uq Oj WU)OL 2bGCfTJç!AG }J6 IJJOUGçL?. nçpor.i-

2çJCG.

21mbJ?. RUJj JJOç JJOR GAGU tAJJGU LGGWGIJ2 IAJJ OLG1JJ OA€LLTIJJG1J2 9LG 94

LGL tAJJç 12 }JbB€UJ1J Iii LG2 O 4JJG GCOUOW? DOWG!C bojricj LGJ!lG2

COJ1L2& 12 AL 6IA CG1JLJ UJ(2 RJJJ CJ1IJ o u €XCJJUG Lç€ iiiçposiç

2flUGL b€tioqic JJiTWiJiiOU pA OL€!1J GxCprnJG UJLJCGç2 jp€ bLopJGm o

J CGJJLJ pUJc2 AiLcrrJJA gJft22 }JAG LG2OIILCG2 CLfI2JJ 2b6CI1jçOL2 MpA qo

JJJG L69'J bLopfGm: CombGW OAGLLJW6LJ Op)GCçJAG2

nuq2 uq OGL bLiAçG 2b6crrJçoL2

oj& conJq €ijoLçJ2JA Lfl2 oj c'€ cowpLuGq wjJç o MOLJq2 p6qG

coumJrcc€q 4O m UçIUJU JJ O4)JGL moUGLA

cjjA 2nbbpGq p2. 1ç2 C€UçLJ pJJJc JJJJT& pO41JJ C€LWUA uq }LUCG NGLG

cIJG LSJAG BLIC6 O AO CHLLGUC162 Lrq 6CJJ CoJT1JçL2.B CIILL6IJC2. 2 mouobop2c-

nudni€q enbboL O pop CGucLJ puJ2 ñcL GXCJJIJG L€ 12 WGLGJA

1bb6L cowbJ66J2. upu u €XC}J11G LG b€ AO C1TLLGIJC€2 p8

yIJA COJJ2çL1Uç2 OIl JJ6 LG2OITLCG2 p€ç Oj 2bGCfIJçiAG q2-

pcç 2JJOU J}JGLG 12 UO cGcpuicJ U6C622)ç2. cowbLowi2G €xcpusqGbo2ça U4O OALUWGU qGpç JJJJG2G JcGLuçJAG2 IJJ92. JJAG i1UqG2iLpJG 2b€Cç&

puqj pIJJq1J CLI2I& 0L GXUJbJ& puj poJq2. oL COUAGL2IOU O bL1AçGbLiwc2. ice GXCJflTU6 Lç6 cowwTçwGLrç ïç CJJ ITCG OJJ6L cow€uçiouJ m€ue

26COL CJIW2 Oil C6UfLJ piJJ.C8 OLG1JJ LGCGLAG2 1j COrnJçL2. LGJJ2. 1A€2

GXçLGWG q2iUçGLmGqçJoU OpAJOrIeJA JLorrJq JO JJ6 ecOCJc oj boç€uçij bLJAçG-

2G conjq lilUJb qLwflcJJA uq GCOUJ6 2 JLG 2 OL GAGU J/J 11CJJ

JGIIqGL O J2 L68OL4 uq bLoiqGe qoweçc CITLLGUCA jorna ptIJJUiJ 22.24GUJ

Page 14: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

TI

cIJG JçJ2pIJJ corijq ioç pLiIJ !cR L9126 JIJçGL68ç LG2 GAGIJ J b€icuçCifl? 0 iça pUJiIJ 2GCçOL LGIJGtAGq 22ITJ ill wq-4oAGmp€r JJJ2 imuxç bGcnJçoL& 266iU bLGcgLiorre eçç o JJG Gcouom? rnq b€-11JçL-jJ1JJ IIJfGLG2ç LG2 J9ç JJG GCOUOWA iii wrrcy MGJCGL bo2içiou LG22ç

uq u pj€ jot€i JUçGLG2ç LG2 1A1JJW conbj J2 B cv' pIILç 0uq r€jq air JGA€ 0L ofiL qAa IM' ou L2 pc-

pujc (çp L2€q LLwL1TJ o/r.upc JGuqpJ Lç€ 200

q€uq J(LOU2 b€ IIJ28!A6 2bacnJc!AG bL€22nLG MG€U2 C6IJLJ

o GbcGmpGL iii qLiuçcCOIJ OL GLJçL?. Juço cIJG EnL0bU 01111111117ç AGGU pu b€ iç jaou

ILPG LGC6IJ RGqi8JJ GXBGLJGIJCG e C2G u bouç ojjoiu rib ou iç gbbji-

1TçpOL141G2 GA6IJçITYJJX 29CL!UCG IJG CITLLGIJC? b€ LG2CJT€ qom62cc GcououJ?

C0JTL26 OMGAGL GAGIJ }J6 wo2 qGçGLwiuaq 8JJOLç-6LUJ 6€U2G tAiJJ JJ 2 JJ€

J€A6J2 Jj JIJA62çOL2 L9J12G PGI!GAG CGIJçLOJ pIJJ 12 liJflhIJ 8ç JJGboe8pG Ic 12 uoç OflJ ojq 20 4}J IJJçGL€2 LçG2 CU L€çJiLU 1JOLIJJJ

0&J 0 CGJJLJ p'JJJ. JIJ CJTLLGJJCA CL1212 12 fO COJJAJJJCG ab€cuijçoia drncjq?

B6Cfl2G nurnJçiCJbçGq arrcuq WCLG92€2 JU JIJçGL€2ç LG2 LG 20 coeçj

LçG woiG AfIJU€LJG ebGcfqçJAG

ia uoç jijj?. o !U cffLU UJJG2 pc€q GXCJJIJG

bJsqG iç i.ijj .uoi€ ericp eqG-Gjj6cc2 uqGuç6J?. q9Guq GxcprnJ Lç€

€LUUJGIJç prrq€c qjcç uq qowG2cc q8çL1pr1çJOU 0 IUCOIJJG 0A€UJW6U

cu 2O bLojpnuq uGc!AG GUGCc8 OIJ !IJAG2cIJJGUc cp OA-

2JJOLc iJq j€uqa J0U OAGL J0UGL GLiJJ }J626 LçG L1862

jGup 0 CU RL€JC }JAOC MJçp pUCiU eeç€m iipJcp pOLL0li2

GebGCijj? eJJOLç-çGLw LG2 fICp epth 2bflCGe !U !UcGLG24 LçG& I 2112çiUGq 0L rn,?

mri2ç G bLGbLGq jjo v 2}Jmb !ucLGff2G !IJ qoweçc JJJçGLG8ç LG8

Page 15: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

'5

cu dncjq) iiq qLW cjfi !UCLG€ JJG OA6LUWGU8 Gxboern.G o ju iuou jo24cLiJrGq IIJçGLAGII1OIJ U G1JCJJ M€ JJAC WGIJç0UGq IJII ThG Oj GXC}LU6-LuG G6II2G

C6ULVJ puUpe IJAG JOUR naGq qGLA9çAG (oLrnLq WLJCG coufLcça Ju b9tJcnJL) o cpi€i

uowuu;€ o urncp qpç ILOW bonuq Juo L°! cnLLGUC iu encp epoL ;pnc JJJG ØUMGL

JpG L€uqGL wuA rnouq€ porn ff rn2 49CJJUJCBJJ) (69pJG JOL JJC fluIJJ 0J 4O LGqG-

GXC}JIJG LG Mifi pG v 2JGbç1cJ WLJ(Gç2 qGbLGcou12 OAGLIJWGIJ2 4JJç LG flIJJG IJJJG CLGqpJ? piiqu bLoiu!262 ponç

() ojp€iç rniçp WOLG cowbjGx ql17wc2 y pec !iubJ!c!ou o J!cGLcJTLG

IJ9J?Gq p2. g2.qjiiq iq €C0cc (mY C91AO (jg q BLLO qmi2. LG2bGcçe CL1262 LG GxrnubIG2 O JJG UJOUGçL2. CLGqTpiJiç2. COUJTIJL1JIJJ

cowbomiqGq bu GL UJOLG OL JG22 O JJJç) OAGLUWGIJ422 LGuGGq [u

COITUL€2 GxcJJtuG-LçG coiuwçwiça mJq LG211Jç1IJ 2bGCrrJç1ou 2JJLbJA

2€IJCG O 2bGcnJciou ou bLiç2 cprne JyG WSLJCG2 2JGbccI /JGtA o poçp

}J MofrJq AG GGIJ fflJCOUJoLJG nuqGL jx€q GXCJJ1JG LG2 GAGIJ JJ

I" IJ °. J5 fP IIP i'q BLUI2P OAGLIYWG1Jç2 ycGq GCO1JOLIJCCOJJq-

JJOJTL& BL!c!2P OAGLUWGU JJotAGq 4JJG bonuq o joç

(LsboLGqJ2. OAGL pjjiou)2 jjqe €oLç bLoAGq !LIGUGCc!AG uq IJGL OJJJ2.

AGL2. pLJG J pJ2çGq nçpO4çG2 GUGq IJ WU22AG 2çGLJGq JuçGLAGIJ1Ou

OL JU }JOIJJG JJJOLG LG8 LG jiujcGq wLJ.c€c JIJçGLG2c LG2 rnicp

asbcGmpGL J flLJçJ2JJ 114?JJOL1ç1G2 MGLG LGJI1CU O 9JJOffi LJ2G IU !UcGLGec LG2

CJ1LLGIJC2. Lq 2 mos cThJc9y tJyGu cjrG boswq CWG nuqsL JuçGu2G ou

BI4c!U2 coUcfJLLGIJç ff4 epoLc-JA6q qGGuaG O JJG bonuqe boe!c!ou !U EV12

JJJG RGq2JJ qGGU2& 1TJ4WçGJA JJITL& M2 mJn2rr9J IIJ ice oLcJcfTqG

p' cthiçj J02262 011 ! j0LGJ1J GXCJ31JG boe!c!ou2

jaou LGJIGAGq bLG22IILG 011 MGq€ua €coiiow2. JJG JflC2pUJ 2J1I[GLG

pc€q GXCtUG LG uq jGç }JG JCL01J JO JJJG GUBfl!1I 8JJgLb qGbLGciciou o

H?LULGU uq r!"qp' Th2) 011 I4OAGWPGL MGGU puqouGq 12

Page 16: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

J0OL 0 JJ6 puq LGUJrnJJGq COUeçrnJç E8cPneP!I cLGqpJG COUJUJTçLIJGUç

RJJJGJJ RL2 L!26 2JOiAJ?. OAGL boc6uc!øJJ% sJJoiiiu joii qGbLGcçou iipj€

JJ JJ6 OAGLUW6U JucioqncGq p9uq 0L 4JJ6 6XCJJgU6 }JG rrbbGL 0?6L pfiç LçG drnçG uJoq62ç IAGU L6C6IJ 6X1CIJ !1JJçI0U 1f4 4JJ6 GLY O

p6cm6 bL6uuonucsq CLIIJ!IJ b€ JJOMG J0L 201116 qGbLGCçiOU 6C

DGCGWPGL T8 113 1UflL?. 6X!C08 pc€q LØcG !U2 IJJ6 qoJJL

€xco pq eITjjGLGq €a o pp iuçou !ipu b€Gq b62o o qojj !"

rT 'fJJ1çoIJJ? O CL1212

J622 N66J2 9GL I1WITJ1LçJOU 0 J,LG2iq6IJ E2c° GqJJJo.

i€ ice b€eo cp flrnçGq qojjL i€uç nb iii UWG2 113 DGCGWPGL

L6 cowmJçuJGuçe uq cLGqipflç2 1136 C0iTI1çL?2 q6J?-bL!e6q 2GAGu-?GgL

GX!CO2 LGC6IJc 6XbGLJGIJCG jITLcpGL !II112ILc68 q?i.imc luc6LbJ p6ctIQGu 6xcpu6-

/GXiCO T3 UuciJ coJJ&b6

BLGC2ITLGC_çJJG A6L7. 6A1J2 JXGq Lç6 R8 8flbbO2Gq J1Lq iu2ç

prrç I8 JJ6p}Jooq LGiUçLoqITcGe poçj 6XCJJ1JG-LçG fTUC6LçiIJç?. uq IUcI01rnL?.

ijq C0IJJIJ }J6 26GcJ2 0 4JJ6 IJ6X 011G 0116 C1J 8A 0L 211L6 R41611 c tMJJ 0CCI1L

qiacibjrn€ 1p6?. LG ML0IJ JJG C4OL8 JJ J6c jeç LGJJ1JUJ6IJç L6UJIU

cLGqpJA JxGq uCJrrq11J 6XCJYIJ6-LçG C6Lc!uc uq qowGeçlc bLics

OUC6 iJq cp6L6p?. briç ITIJqIJJGUçJ2 LJç cJJ6A MoITJq cY6L6c6L 61JiOk rnçeCOAGLUIJJGJJcC 0çGU GGJ !I I1J6 conjq brqj oj 2fTGU LGpuw6uc 1neç

GXb6CççJ0U2

Page 17: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

pf

o pG puq onjq couc!unG o LG btuuonuccq LUG o yjjj boe bGL qoJLGxcpu&G LG piuq OUG ?GiL onç uq JJG crn.LGIJç GXCUG Lf& ou jiG enwb!ou cob

urnxiwnw m cjcnjçcq e cpc bGLcGuc qr[cLducc pcçccu fG ob o p€ bo\qoJJLq2cfl2oIJ

JJJGLG LG JO WJJ J2 Hi IUGfIøU2 O opOUO2 4O JJGqojjm M1C MG UGIGC III OJ1L

DOLUPI1P uq MGLUGL (j)

ii cconu o pG [Gxic9u piJiiou GxbGLJcucG bLJoL co cpG i.cGuc co1jb&

ouG-AGL q€bLGcwçiou LçG o BGeo nUqGL IA€x!Co2 uuonuc€q cr.tipu bG

bL€cJou ueç p6 qojjr JyG pJJ Lbp iii EiThL6 T epoI uxiwrnu

uq ou6-?GL %OOo' JpJ2 b 12 cJo2GJ?. tGjcq boç€uçij OL b€eo q€-

€uçij pGçli€GU OUG-?€L C% N}J1CJJ ULG OAGLUWGJJ bG2o-qGuomuGq JJpijiçJ€2

q€rqç L12J( IJJLJ(Gç2 bjc€q ou OAG ibp cji€ pJcGLG2c qIJGL-uq bGLcGuç P€tOLG 1nmbju 2bGcçcfrJLJ? JU UITL? TO2 Ia WG21TLG O

aç liJJC pJ LGCGJJ ?GL2 GJJ6LJJ pq prccrrcq ILl L1JG GtAGGIJ J

qoJJL-puJGq pouq uq uiç€q 1LG21TL pijj O JIJCG mrçnLI* Jyia JUçGL-

IJ IJGLG2 LG2 pGçtAGGU JJG OOUO OA6LUUJGU24JJG b€tioq tLOIJJ çJJG O O JJG O JJJG JOEG24 bjoç apotia çJJG

c162 cow€e Lom çpG cbrçj IJJLJGç2 EJrrLG j apoa çiio L6JGALl uqccoLa OL

OIJJG O JJG 2LOIJG2ç GAqGJJcG çJJç WLJG2 6LGq LGA€L2J2 O JJUOI1IJCG boji-

iUjiOU OU çp LJ2G rnq ç}JG b620 2JJLBJ? q6BLGCGq

Lsuc?. CL1212 drncj4X G2CjG JJJçO tApOJG2JG OAGLUIJJGIJ jdnqç? cuaia jwiu

OL2 ps1qGc qcc rnq qpc MouGcJsGJGa& c}JG DGCGWP CJTL-

cbij UJLJc6ç& bLAçGq 2ççG-oRJJ6q GUcGLbL!2G2 uq Lqnc€q p€ bsipjc 26C-

OJJGL jCG8 Oj 41J€ €couow? JJJJG COmJçL?. JORLGLGq !wb0Lc PLL!GL2 qGLGcIJç€q

b€€q LG bojicA comb JGUJGUG p). LGUJLJWpJ? 2IiCC€22;f1j €OLç ço LGjOLUJ

JJJJ2 cLGqppçX qiq uoç COLUG dIIICJq?. OL GjJ ço yGXJCO) GAGJJ çporrjJ iça

JOti JIJ çJOU M92 CJGLJA bL!mLX WOjAG pGpIJq JAIGX!CO2 CITLLGUCA bG

Page 18: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

— — —' )\ __.- •• /N,

fl2 JP!II L91662OPOUO L96 1622

1

,_-.__,I--"/ \/\/ //

\/\A

MGGIA q9f9) .iaa3-Dec6wPeGxcpsuäG L9G psuq

Jex!co: IUGLG2 L9G 9uq f4JG

E!anle 4

2OflLCG EG6L9I b626LA6 O9L

III I I I 111111 I I II III liii 1111111 I 111111 I 1111111 I III II0

S

e

9

10

43

V

62OPOUO LS6

a

e6 L96 1622

A6SL qebLecsou L9GbLOW!26q wsx!wflW 0U6-

Page 19: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

aiethii OoO%-& sr1t moil er1oiab9qx9 rioitair1vsb eabsiq nix0 frx9mIn9vo 10 ,Jaii 1ains1311th 9Idiaaoq B lo eauasd iaq ni bii ai Iaik1915Thb

fsLtnel9lIib oo-& rLf ndW .abnod lo aaaa13 owt 9rLf nsewd zUnaI9b

8fl9ffI1T19V0 siLl isbnu sldiaaoq noiiabsiqsb mumixam siLt abssxs 1Isifriatadia

1hu1 Bsaimolq saorLt bnfi tori bib as*am siLt MiLl '1s1i1 at ti isvsworf asaimoiq

siLl bss3xs bib 1aitrtsxsT1ib oito&% -sso siLt Miii aworla .1 suji'i .nbnivrIoD

sill lo rioilariiaaaaaa sill isila llrisieiano elücp nolMbsiqsb rnumixsm bsairrioiq

.!O@t rbiM iii oiao1o9 oblanoU aiiid siabibnaD InLluIsbiaslq IBilini &I$N nihui -abmñ rIa3ixeM iii aloqa 1asw huB li1idBlarIi IaDiiiIoq iuodB 8fl153fIOD ioiasvril

lo blo3sl baii auoivsiq aln5rnLnsVO sill d bsbrmoqmoD ldirob on sisw atsinism

.a1a5 nodDsIs Iathrzsbiasiq iii niiiJIsvsb

ssw iii bsbefisi oats aaW hlsnrIiimmO3 sliii 9flBd3X9 8CODLXSM isvo mai3ilqs)12

-eb a sMioqiont ol aOQQI siLt isvo in1iaasini bsmsse rbinlw nioilafirü ethq bua

noilafinii s3iiqlo aasxs eviMliimu, siLt aslailau1li ewi'1 aA .nrwirrisiq rioiMulav

haq .O@I ui itiala 1qiar1a 9assl3th ol nnsd nioilai3siqsb slai sniarbxs

biqai 'd beililauL idirob Oil 28W oasq sill 10 noiMiDslqqa 1891 bsnuiaiaiia sill b

nioiiasilaisdil sbaii bna amiolsi oimonios ol sub ooixsM iii 892891Dffl vtivilDubo1q

sisill 4QOI d luH °.insmssiA sbaiT ssi'l flB3ii9fnlA n{lioI4 sill iii l1tl8fItm1JJ3

-ui na rnqqnlaluo aaw niotha siqqa oasq lasi sill Mill enioilaDibnii nIam sisw li3lIsb lruioa lnlslliiD ao3bcsM Ot.aIalnismabrith d bsfiuiauL sd bluo3 Inch 98B913

.2nofav1s8do Iiab o 819V8 bisow ia nwoif aMb silT .'ab isq iii oq all nsdw vr.nisnu aisio a l&iiaa floE ian)olqqa lasi oisbnu oi bias ei 311911U9 A°

-l-nisio1 sili nail i boiisq 8 isvo (at d 1liu1 io) siom d asah '(3n9nu) nioio siLl lo 8mlaf .noilaftai lsveL-soiiq iii s3flaI3Thb smoif

beaad slwi-snaibxs sldthei Llshsqmi na isbnu siai sasd3xs laei siLl to a3irn81rb sifT0'

A .as31q laaimoa 'bii smuaa odw (CI) JfèV baa ovlaD id bevhsb sis aoziasilidale

vi 1(3111w noitaxsbrn saW nbLoo!-b,Bw)Load (!UQI) ionisW baa ,beudaio(J id bsieailqme

Page 20: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

yuun q9f9) ias-maG2OqOII9L excpsuae L9G suq bLicea

E!äI1LG 5

.1685 .1

0

.1

.ieao .1663

3EXCLJ9UäG L9G

2

JGX!CU\fl2 CbI L9110

Page 21: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

i.c bLoIrneLGcçoq bLIAU;G GAUJITUJoIJ8 Oj W I!J1W°°q JJU4 cJJG OA€LUW6IJ monjq 2c!CJC p?k GXCJUU6-

JJG OAGLUI1JGU4 pJ1 JJG OI74COWG Oj pi pULUiuhIJ ( mGJj 2 bO% IIJIIUf!OU) uou€pcJMc1G LG4 RGLG 9LGGq OJJ 111 U GLJGU O bUtO% UWOU bL!A9€ BL!cG G4GL2 JUOL JTU!OIJ2 &uq

LJG O IUGLJU IU p€ IUUUJOU LUG1 N92 UJO g IUCfOL U WG bo r.€j 9bbLGcjvou bL!C6 Uuq

tAGLG CGq &IçJJ U GAGL-MOL2GIIJU q1J6WW 2çuiJq pK €xcjmnr LBG uq

L€J uq IJOWJIJUJ !JJcGLG8c LØ4G2 LGWJJ6 P!P UJOUGçL? 1Tç}JOLIçJG2

qouJ COWIJJIçUJGIJç 142 GXC}JB1JG LG 2 çJJG bo BbL€ciç6q illBc iç i192 fflJJG COIJA4LJC6 IJA62OL8 buc o iç JoIJ-ç€Lus

LOL €xicu OA6LUWGU 8flCcGGqGq 113 b€eo qoJJL

r°'-' LOUJ 4}JG bceo2 coJJubG

LG2

LGJT2!U 4O LGUIJIJCG GAGU 4G qoJJL-flUJcGq OOUO% c GXOLpJcUuc Ju4GLG2ç

!ucGLG8 Lç€e Gç oj prnsjai iJq cL6cflç CL88 IJq OL€U IUA€2çOLe b1ncJcGqCUll OAGLIJWGU LGLGUG U UOU JJJG beo MGU wço LGG jj 2pULbr? JJIJJGL

ponç 12 bGLcGuç i'c u€'& BULIçX itw UccUcJcGq mm JGcflUç€J? 9irq JJG yGxi-

jo €uq 2bGcnJUçJou OIJ woq€eç b€ao qGAUJnUcIOJJ o

LJ1IJJOL8 2pULb jj iii UçGuwçjouUJ LG2GLAGV JyG UnpoL!c!Ge Uçç6wbçGq

JJJG €qjjo JUU111TLUc!OU OU DP J Jf U2 oJJotAGq pX LI8JIJ qGAUJHU-

jCUJ boeiçiow EA61JcffUH swbcUc!ou GAUJ1TG pGC9'WG LLG22c!PIG

2UU16 911 GJGClOU-AGUL LJ26 !U bITpJ!C ebGUflIJ }JUq IAGUJCGUG OAGLUUJGJJ2

2GCçOL JJJG CGIJ4LUJ pUuca jOLGI.IJ GXCJJBU6 L€26LA69 RGLG qGcJuu Uuq Uç

bjoAur€uç t#e LI8IJJ jn&jf AOTUJG JJç6L62ç LUçGe MGLG q2LabcLr dIG pUzquu

J6A6J2 O OLG11J pOLLOMJU }JU cTh!c9JJ? 916 UL jOL comJcL a eneçnr flIJGUJ-

LOG uGULJ?. bGLcGuç 0Db U ffllq UGULJ? g bGLcGuç IIJ TOOT LGBLGeGUçIIJ

Page 22: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

JJJG U(ILG 2JJ0M2 Lq1TJ 11262 JU L6J 6XCJJU6 Lç€ OL 9JJ jOJTL CIILLGUC!6&

2JTUJGL bLIcG JuqGx (jyrr& IJ !UCLG2G !2 L6J bbLGC!!OU UaçJJG qowGeçic CITLLGUC2. bLlcG o GIT2CJJ6 UJgLJC uq C6UJ1J?2 cou-

L6J 6XCJJU6 LG 32 qIJ€q 2 4}JG UOIJ&J COU2JI1UGL bL!cG JuqGx qJAJgGq p?. }JG

b66q IJ2ç }JG G1T2CG UJLJ JcJ W6 E1A12 4}J6 J1L6 CflLL6UC?2

q€u buoL yJj€q LGCG1J JCGGb CJTLL61JCJG2 6XCflJ6 L68

E(TL6 2}JOM2 bs';çGLJJ2 L62GWPJ!IJ 6XICO2 OL 4J?k bOLffl9J IJq M6-W€2çIC CHLLGUCX !2 JrJ€JX o eb6cnJçJAG

JcGL cjJG !wbo2!ou oj u L6 b6 !' c!1J16 LGJ bbL6cøc!ou oj qo-

fIc2iqG OJ PThGL!1JJcOU& bLG-6X!24JIJ JUçOLT cffljGL6UçJJ2 YJ1 OiJj?. qrrjj?.

JdJJG L6J GXC7U6 Lç q?uuic cmqGLJ?qu cJJG j,j€xIcu CLJ2I2 !2 uo rrrndnG

IIJJG AnJu6LpJ6 O fldflq CL1212

JJ6 CO1U14L?2 2polc-cGLm qoJJL pOLLOtApJ uq 2}JLb J022 o ojcj LG2GLAG2 qq

cO-4}, Lç0 e pjoii o mJJ?. CLGqdIIOLçJJ?. OECD conucLJG2) jpor1p

ruJqGLJThJ 2CJ 2!ç1içJoU 2fr62çGq oA6LUuJ6IJç R2 !U2OJAGUc (ça q€pç-

IT6X1CO W RGJJ }JA6 OççGu p ucponç 4Ocp!U U JJ6 COtUçLX)2

b62oa LGJ 6XCJJJJ6 L4G IUOLG CO1UbGççAG 1Jq IJJçGLG2ç L462 J0li€L

WLJ6ç& pG 6A6U2 L6li J6XJCO JUço CL1212 UJ1JJ UGAGL JJAG oCcnLLGcç

J GX]C02 UçJ-1UJçJOJJLA bOjiC?. pq p6cu 111016 CL6qpJ6 JU IJJG 6?62 o

0 4CJC2 epoLcJ?t

JAG bjrr2ip1G ccomç O rnJq6LJ?U Cfl2G2 M6 JJ eu?. UJOLG

jp€ bLGcGqu 2çoL?. qoGe uoç €xbjw Gxcç o pric !c qoG8

iu b62oe qGbLGciçiou ofrç p€ 5'L

JuucJou CLGqpflç? W JJG GUq WLJCGç 6XBGCçWOU8 oriç 10 G nçij€qGxb6ccçJou& L6bi1J 201116 2}JOLc-cGLW 1U8 IU onçbnç piiç 2CLqJC1U J0U-cGLW

OJGLG JJ6 q6bLG22U G6C2 O OAGLAJJWçJ0U Uq }1JJ IUçGLG2c L62 OL Lç

Page 23: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

EL'i2 CL!2!2

.1

,Ja8:J0!!

.4 •4

J2.13

122

.ieao:

Øn9LGL1

G9I I!L9IDIAI GXCIJSUäG L9G

tOL tOflL E LObG9U CO11UL!G2KG9I excpsuae L9162 sIue pe qenecpe WSLK

E!äI1LG 3

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

.1a63:5

Page 24: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

EL'J2 CL!2!2

+Ja9a:3 .ieao: Jaa08 I I I

.1 ..J

a.'

OnSLIGLIA q949 Ja9-aat:5G9I eecnqo\DJ GXCIJSUaG L9G

ECfl bea EE�I/\1 GUL.1

.1•3

Page 25: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

EE�VI eui1 EV2 CU2!2

+ +.J698: .1a98:2 .jaao: .1a65:.I .1aa3:I I I I I I I I I

.13

.12

OnsiieLiA 9f9Kes be2esDlJJ excpsuae L9G

Page 26: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

EVJ2 CU212

.1889:5 .1886:2 .J660

*

nsL1eLAqsfs aa:i -

KG9I (LOU9\DLAJ GXCpSUäG L9G

053

0•5'f

ECfl beä

038

03

Page 27: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

LGqnc€q 7UJOU LOW 911 91J11J1J WIG 01 !" TOôO 0 0UJ J2 bGLCGUI 113

rno dniou p? JJG LGCGU GxbGLrGuc 01 bGLf JJ1JJG JJOMiU 1412 6XCUG LG 0 b

p€ EV tJJ'°q iu 1412 U'f qGcuq6) JjJG IJ0q 0L UX!II JJG oflf2€ç o 2IP!Jc!0U 12 C9flG

05€U JJ9AG p660 J9IIIJCJJGq JIUqGL L664L!CçJ01J2 011 !UcGL0l0011J cvbjçj wopir; (rMpCIJ L6qnCJ1J JJJP 111 1110U JO LGqnCG IJJ6 LI2J( 0111 2b6c11J11ç1A6 1111CJC 21JCCG22J1J 2412piJi1141O1J2

i12 1JO46 110A6 I}1GLG 11L6 9OWG ooq LG990U8 IJO1J6çp€JG82 IOL B6J1J cxCpu6 L114G

moi& qjjcrqç fIG 2bGcrII114!AG ou ;p€ pL!c?2JJ bonuq u 2GbcGwpsL

pp nuGmbJoAmGuç OL jgj 2poLç-çcuxr bnpJc q€pc B'c €xbjjuiu c'''abcnjçu p? WJ(1IJ Cf1LLGIJC?. L6JiuIJJGuç IJJOL6 UççLCçTA& OL Gx11mbJ&

WOGJ2 boiuç 1J11IJJGL O J111JJGUJ COL8 CIJ 1UCLGG JJ6 JJCGJiJJooq O

11J12 LGdr1Guç JCJ( O €LJ?. IA11LIJJJ LGUJ!JJ2 eom€çpu o bnJG ECOUOW!C

Jc€ yrrrrç (goao iJq aA6IJ201J i't)iu GXCJJuG-LcG CLGqJpc LGq1pJJ14?t p€U qGç6TJOL11çG wGnL11pJ? oujX Ju

Gx11mbJ& JJGLG ti jççj !U !Uc€LG2c o au? iqcrj €iooucoJJb2G Ju woucp j€qiJ iib GbcGUJpGL J0 EVT2 C1ILLGJJCA CLJ2J2 oL

JucGLuçiou9J Iuc€LGec fljGLGU4J11J2 L!2G aJJ11LBJA ouj? .tAGGJC2 OL GAGIJ q112.2 pGjOLG

OG2 uoç OUG o cJsG!L woeç qL11uJ11çc G11çnL62: ou'OffL q2ca2aou O LOJG O IJJb6Lt6Cc 0AGLIJWGII4 cL6qpffl JJ 2bGCf1JfAG 9ç-

j,.joqc o nqqGu cJc2 on jxq LJG2

bojçicjjA mthoJç11pjG L6q8Lpncoue O !JJCOIJJ€

OAGLIJWGIJ OJAGUC? 4O bLOb rib 4JJG p11uJciu 26COL OL 112 111 C026 O BL1c11I1J

0JJ6L 4JJ11U L611J t!11G2 OL LG11J 6XC11UG L11ç& 211CJ1 912 (J681L6 11391Uç11JIJ

iioç€q 11pOA& 11 0AGLUUJG1J42 !UCGIJc!AG2 4O 11p11uqou pCGq LUG8 !11A0JAG 11ClOL8

COfIL2& JJ6LG ISO CG22} 0L L69J 11bbLaci11çiou bLGcsqG 1113 cjc y2

BJJ 2JJ11LB qGcJpJGe 1II24 1156L 4JJ6 EIAI2 CL!2!2 I1 ! J5JJ

Page 28: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

pGcowG ucL6Ju?. qcnJc jOL COmJcL!Ge o prnjq L6bnççou cb!cJ u€q€qCSIJLJ J62201.1 O 4}JG LGC6IJ E0b61 mq y\J6xicu GxbGuGucGe ! cpc !c p

ou-2cuque jxGq cxcp9uc Lc: U Guq9uGLcq bcc1c

abGcnJcJAG cccje MJç}JOIIç LGBOL GdllTJipL!f1UJ rnqGçGuInu9ciGa

1U J,JTIç11LG L€2GLC W 211CC6G HJ bpsu!u qoiir UJOLG BLGc!2G1X ocJJ6 CL1218 Ic2GJt CLGG2 Gcouoi.uc bLG22rzLG mq€i JAJJ!CJJ 1JJG OA6LUUJGU CAG2

moq€j C11LL6JJCK CL8€& JJJCG pJJJ LJ11J CJJ p€ 8GJ-YI1flflJ!JJ GAGIJ2 JU MpJCJJ

Oj 4}JG crnJ qGbGuq ou arrneboça (26& OL GxgUJbJ& pcjq j) wpaç iIJcoLboLçG wrqçibpctç?s. O eJJOLç-LfflJ 6da!J!pL9 eo GX9Cç IJJJJJ

pLoqJ?. cp bocGuc!J AnJuGLpTJic o pc€q LG LW6 cccJ.cot.€ LGCGUç 4GOL€8 swbp6 WG wboLçucG o GCOUOWJC rrnq1JJGuçe

mou€çQ. bojicA o xcpu€ L6LGJ OAGLIJWGU jcjqu boccJ iiijj uJG-muqGqJ? 2npoLqwçs

GXCJJ1JG LG JOIJ P0L6 !U20IA6Uc !2 GAGU LGwoçGJ? IJ 12211G W WOeç C2G2

!pc€q GxcpmJ6 LçG BIT G 2JJOIAGq GLJ!GL OAGLUW6U OGU prnqou

!u2oJAGuc2. CGULJ couaçuç nc!uwcGJ JoLc€e puqouuiuc otLOIIJ pocj uq GwbJLJc9J bGL2bGcçJAG cp boLçL U2C9I

LøqnJ pfTJqflb O UGLG2 qfljGLGuçJa yIJOçJJGL Iwq6c11wc? O JJG GgLJ?. woq6J&

U26 BpsLbJ?. oujX eJJOI4J?. 6OLG 4JJG ucccjc JVIJJGL WOqG2 2ffG2

o paç iJoç o ycç 4JJ WGLG LG qJIJGLGJJ4JJ2 OçGIJ

(jo) uq jjooq 'q GLPGL (jg OjGL u GxbJu1Jçiou o ecj€ ouq c!w!uELJA o 1oçiou9J eb€csTJJAG jojjotniu KLfl1U

eonJq CGLiUJ?. JJAG 9J1CC66G pq !c 0CC11LLG !u yrrneç__eo p? qq eb6crrJçoLe

Page 29: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

bcia biarl bsiodal svarl aeiiicwo3 cisM .sai sciarbxs bsxft si dauib a rziatazia o bsclain3 atio1s iisrl rbtaw ot 'lrio sldibei3 sq sai-sciacbxs cia slam o1 rio1

-snarbxs wollorl 1o aelqmaxs aA .awod cisvs io aab wsI a cii eicraasiq te*iam d cxl aissq sd-billow ioI isbiai1 isvs smoDsd 111w 1i

, slalircriua atnsmJimrrlo3 slai

.evloaei iisrll 1o ets*iam S3fflVflO3

svarf Mrkt asrthrnJo3 siai-bsxfI lo quoi llama srll b isa srlt ai cisc{t ar{W O@Qi ec1t 10 aaa eviakrDeq8 srLt isdsola bfova -io ,bad iascl o bsanam

cxl 5)l erLi 8511 ldamilaeiq IaJe*iam IaJfqa3 risqo rnciialsi 11ila slir{w

9c{1 (Ii ii1idiaaoq 1a3ifs1Oecll a LI&LI 910111 sIB asiai bsxfI lsrLfsrlW nibnataisbnu

.lfIsffffiOILVfIe IaiDnarth 111911113

bliow sril cii riiniamsi llila aslai snad3xs bsxfI bvil-no1 lo isdcrmri srLT

'1aUOUh1iif1o3 evarl larll asftlmo3 srl alail eldaT .Ilama 'ldaAiamsi al abol b as 8IB9 svfl Iaasl la iol (abnad o± riirLliw) estal snarbX9 bsxiI bsciiafriiam

!tarIiaa sq srLl (slaad nenu io) 3ci911U3 srLt riiiw ier1isot QQ1 I srujL

asimorIoDs iojam aniafnoo sldal siLl cii quoi qol sdT .nasd riixf1 ias siLl bria

faiLt 85111111103 llama isv lo 818181103 quoi bclo3sa silT .ats*iam lafiqaD cisqo riliw

"isv b 218181103 quoi biirli sill bits iallob aslat bsliciU sf11 98U 10 o1 sq isc{lis

£i.8513119r1u3 isillo sau io of sq Jaril aeiltfWoD llama

.aa scl1 fariw ton ob asiIlduJo3 isriw Ia nblool d bsblrifai'ioD ai eldat 1110

('IMI) bnifil 'ialsnoM lanoifanisinl sill of afioqsi slqmnxs iol aidaiA ibua lisH .xfI lbiii usd1 iscllai 'ti1idixsft timil of amia tiiorl1ua iaIsnom eli I aiLt

ilsw nssd svad iallob siLt taniaa la"Oi sill lo abnad noifaubjifi silt sDiba1q cii

5nB1IDx9 boxil SyBil Ofl ob bnnuD nJnuo3 isif lo 9u i811i esimonoo bsimlLoU noinu Dn&11U3 s boniol niv81f as bowoiv od bluoda odT onaibxs on ovad od-astsi

obubni oW .noinu od nidtiw noiioi3 onom molt owiornioa on modi B6 ibkilw amiof no .aeonolslqmoo ioI fno sldaT iii aoimoflo3o ibua

Page 30: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

flu!c1 VP EWL fl' qoJJL I1UG IJ JØ2c A!cc i fl qojjvL vi raie

112 qojjr. ie ioefl qoJJL AI raefl qojj J40A TÔfl q1L T3f1 OflL u rage

IAUCLOIJG2!I3 fl qoJJLjajuqa fl qojjrn. ioe

cq 112 qoJJL JU)D0W!U! fl qoj J()t

112 qojji. EGP I2 EGP TS2B6J 112 ciii IJ TO Ufl qojj 1i1f1 T2 PIIA I2BpLgp, qoJJL iP i.oBPgjj fl qojJr. TO4yuçn flLIJ fl qojj

puq) (j puq)pq aic

eLofib : UJJJ GCOUOUJJG2 bGju o 01. fl2jU fl qoJ9I.

qoc ioao IAJLCP mVLP! fl qOJj7L ALCJJ 1882 lflhIG IO8C

4cçpGLJuq2 UJLJ AjLc J3rr1LLJpon GJIIJ LLJC 1012H0U K°' qojj or 1883 O 1083Vn2LJB CGLWU IJJLJ 2GbrTô •U•

puqa) (j puq)?43SC 13tCLORb I: ]jOL GCOUOLUJ62 Mjçp Ob6IJ crbjç,j W9LJ642

IWLE2 LOff MAE AEVB Off IOffEJCOflLffIE2 JJ-IV.L HYAE YVIWLVI14ED FAXED EXCI-IVL4CE

LVBE

Page 31: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

jJouJ€jnq J20 n Luqne€q 4pGiL OMIT C11LLGIJCI62 MJJ!CJJ BLG bG6q gç bUL MçJJ IPG .&uq Jp€ aonpyLCW 2!UCG p6!i JuqGbGuqGucG qçG2 (j rniq jg) Lc2b6cczA61)) WVL6 rocpo uq 2mJuq nq LiJq MJJ!JG cp€) bq o aonip

rocpo rnquq1 uq onçp fLJc VLG gjj bç o ;p€ 1çuq AOUGçLXflLGJ uq O JJO1X

UOLL cGqGq pG LIJJ4 4o qoW62çc COJDG lIT g pwu pobb€çw jç2 JCJ O g jocj CIILLGIJCA 2661132 4O O pCJC 9 2 T3.2 !AGIJMpCJJ 12 01JJ1c16cJ ILOUJ IPG 1PI& J12 JJG ELGUCIJ LUC uuq 2IJ!2P

CnLLGUC) uq 4JJTh2 12 qoJJLisGq W1PGL JJIJ JJA!1J 4Lfl6 XGq GXCpIJG LçG130 OUJG2C bb6L CJ1LL6UC? Iq IJJ6 GCOU0W? J12G2 0 L0L6!U

1J0LLOM!11 JJ6 20W6M04 LO0GL puq poq woIJouq 2111C6jpijuq oqobçGq puq jor. pp-qojjoL Lo; u BUn0L?

jajiiq uq niço jpco9 1JflJJ 4p6 C'" J2J1Uq2 W6 LJflq I2J01 IP6 B!11OLUi2 JgLG 1JJ1WGL 0 2GUJi-J1çOU0I1JOi12 2IG2 COJOIJJG& OL 6LLiçOL1 2nCJJ

cpG qoJJIlL yjj o Con uLiG2 AG cjoq cob!coJ UJLJC6ç2 jji€ opJ6jj, xJq jj LG2b6cJA6J? uq r!PGL! Lio A"' ouq 1g) Mplcp b€pcji b CflLLGIJCG2 MJfJJJU puq O JJ6 bccioj DLom1U }ç1p (euc€bGLioq 11.0W JTOO T V"6 J2 VJ20 GxcJnqGq OL€ 0TJW0L ouq 26?CJ16JJ62U04 C01iiW10fl2J? jxq g 10LSJIJ GXCJflTIJgG L6 101. p6iL CflLL61JC? 9 JG02 OAGL IJJ6bGLioq2 nuIJGLLnbçGq o flUG Jp6 xcjnq ConUL!G2 poç po,

1JpG buoq 01 GXCp&1JG-L6 X!c? 1A6U ill }J60pJ6 OLG J01JG2 C0U1U110J12

A" C1 I1J!' J!' T3O TôOJ/1AJJ13 vn2cLgJju qojjL

onp 1ñLJcIu uq reU AjLi1J03 JJiU JiL

n2çLJiIJ q0jJJLAOLTCO3 LLGUCJJ 1LIJC T2 J82r!PGU2Gu3 2M122 IL&IJC T031 T8Tropo oncp V1L!CU Luq

ynr.ju qojjJuq1Ju LrJbGG

piUq2) (n poIJq2)

CL0flb 3: 2IIWJI 6C0IJ0IIJj62 b6ju 40 01. I12jIJ UO1JOJJL CIILL6IICIG2

Page 32: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

9U Jfjo qpLGuc€ p€ pip uq JOM Guq-o-won4p L4€ OA€L ;p€ njj b€uoq 12

oL ;p€ bccj DL!IJ pp; M colmlq€L conuL) puuu pc€q !Aç}qU 11 5O pøuq ig COfl1JfL? U U24 CI1LLGIJC? 01. flUCJ3V1J!11 CJ1LL61JC? $2JGf UO 1112 }JG qoJjL

joojicq 20111€ 11111101. CJILLGUCJG2 jpc qiiijciijç) 111 C0112LffC11J 211CJ7 0 40J€ Je 011€ Wfl2 CJJ€CJ

4JJ0; MJJfl€ (AG OL€ Y!LJA couqcuf 4JJ0 110 WOIOL conuçi p ow1ccGq JAG mo? 0AG oJ€L-

cjoi€ L0€ q040 ILOW UO110 U0SC0 % S1t% JJJG LG0€L jioiijq G M0L1JG J10MGAGL

13JppJG JJB2 GG11 COu2cLnCl€q n2J1J JJ L€bOL401 J1JGLA1GJA8 MIJJ L0GL2 onq IJOUJA CX-

UXGL8 iiirns€q AoJq JJG 2IICCG22!O1J O C11LLGUC?. pjoocic2 occrTLLGq U 4JJG

IJJ JJG26 qJjGLGuCG2 JOIJG pLqJ? 866111 GxbJu O!A Jou-2çuqpJqoJJL (tçpu puq2) wu). conb2 uq lu oAGLuw6uç

or1b2 RJ4JJ1U GCJJ CofIIJ4L? juqa CJ1LLGUC? OL GxoIub1& poe LGLUO11JGJ x€q

e€uane ou bLJmoc?. o xq LOG cowimçiu€uç oiuou o boç€uçroj LrrJiu

ou€ qJcnjc drrnirçiA 12 obb€oie G 0 2LOU bopçicoj cou-

JuçGLGeç L0G2 iu AJLcITOJ jocjcaçsb IA4JJ QGLW0U2 pITIJqGepOIJJC 'f a€couq 0C0L

o J016 BOLçIJGL COfflJçLA JJJJG GçpGLJOUqe ouq V112cL!0 OL €xombj& a€ç

qIJoc6 4}J6IIJ8GJAG2 L04JJGL COOLIJ0G JJG WOIJGç0L? bopcA qcieioue

0116 OAOfl2 q2cuccou 2 JJ0ç 0JJ O 4JG2G comJçLG2 016 LGJ0çAGJA eWojj ouq 2npol-

UOGJA iç 12 U04 GOCA GuGL0J!G opoiiç 'P°1 q2c rr!epG2 errccseenj pCGLe

pc€q GXCJJ01JG LOçG2 00fl3?4 cniK C11LLGUC). OL AG AGOL2 01 1110L6 flIJ0Lçff-

oujX o pouqnj o COJ1IJcL!G2 iu uoLjq p0/.6 couc!urrocfeJA mouçou6q

GCOIJOIJJI6& OJ 8p6JqOIu& oIJq ppJ? qGbGIJqGlJç buucibopçiG& !2 pcGLoJJ?.

JJJG 2cL!JrnJ COUCJIT2IOU L0W FPI6 12 OeIqG LOW 20W6 8III0JJ cOJTLIeIlJ

1JJG0UJUJG28

IJoç pcjiiq€q GC0JT86 2LC €XCJJ0IJG C0ULOJ2 LGIJGL 1JJG!L 0JC10J GXCJJ0JJG L0462

C0JJ4!IJJT0112 x€q 6XCJJ0IJG L016 owpieç qoJJOL 0L 111016 XG0L2 016

'!1P!' FI 011 qJG 04GL jioiq1 COmJcL!62 eJlCp 1LOcP tAjncp pOAG LGboLcGq o

Page 33: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

W€UCP IuunGucG o puc ouc mGwp€r.21 wc.o6couowjc boJJcJG

LOW JJG LG IP1!PI P T&IW HO1A6L3 i 9nbboqoq bLioL pA cucpGXCJThfl1G LU46 M14JJ 4JJG E,LGIJCJJ (L9IJC ØIJA 111 JJ /A9 WGJL CJ1LLGUCA ;pG ci.v u' q€ijncq

LOL Gxwb1& O4GGU IJG9 VU1CU H!0U2 ØLG I!u1cq IU g UJOUGçLA nurou pcq ou

bvLTç p; uom qGnucç pn p€ AbcJJA oiiq p€rL 1ouGAA o 2bGcIJ CJLCflWUCcpvu f5O 8111CC JJJGLC VLG 8GACWf boeç-oLq pjrn j GxgwbJc2 ol ACLA Jou-J/q pccq

ya nooq n ;o jpjc JjJ9Juq p b€q m!cp!u puq aow€mp pLO11qGL

C}J8IJG2 JJWG (20 pL) oJJoMGq EIAI UJOAG liG jJ11Cç1TçOU pouq u

12 LGWLJJG poiiç 4JJG2G GXCJ3UG L4G2 !2 qG2b4G LGJc!AGJ). auJJJ

L9VC-1JJ11LJ LçG J20 !8 uq 0L D"2P JCLOIJG-UJ11LJC Lç& +2 MPc

2omapç JLGL qj Jf1ccfT11c!ou2) flJG coLLG2bouqu puq oL j.i11ubLç içpiu po puq (jji€ Guq-o-mouçp cnLL6uc? LG !16 iia couc€j

GXCJJUG LçG O JJG GIJcP Luc 'q WLJC JJB2 2ç9AGq 0L CJJG woç

oaç IJ04pJG 18 4JJG bO2IçiOIJ 0j EV wGmpGL2 IJCG 'UfIL? 4JJG

cormcLiGa uoç jç€q p11i6 bG6q iiçpu 8JJJcJ? L0GL 11IJ2 J0L OAGL IJAG XGL2

JJJG CL1çGLIOU 1126q IJ JpJG 2 dfIçG 24L1IJGIJI rnq iuq€€q GII UJ1OL4JJG 2111JJ6 01JG2 JJAG GGIJ JDJG 0 LIX C0U4HJfI0fT2J?. 0L b9eç

W910L COITIJçLIG2 2JTCCG82J1J HI LT1qJ? JXLI OAGL b LIAG ?GL2 9L€ pcjjA

anccGGqGq nbboi.ç jOL JJ2 qG11 comae LOW uoçpGL !mbJTcUc!ou o jypj : qJ€

J4 JJU2 pGCOWG WOLG qiCfIJç OJIJ JJG €XCIfI2!AG CJflp 0 C0JTIJ4L1G2

pCGq LG MJJGIJ Cbçj UJLJG2 EGLG 2pfloMGL uq LUOLS LGJTJ11G uqbtGwimu pojq ;pea CULL€uc!G2 j,GLp2b2 ii GU2!GL G2çpJ2JJ cLGqpJA

JGAGJ2 Juq1ccJu 0L€!IJ !UAG2cOL2 qo IJOf LGcTIT!LG 2112fIJfJ LGJJuuJGuc

LfG2 JIJ 41 JIG 4641JJGLJUq2 91rq T1T241L JJ9'AG J0U GGII GX4ILGIUGIA CJO2G 410 QGLWBIJ

qGLG6 0 CLGqpJ41A RJ41JJ j0LG!IJ GXCJJUG WLJcGf2 JJJJfl8 0L €ximbj& UfGLG2f

o bLG2Guf q€cq& €cp o corrUfLiG2 pq JLGq?. G2fpp2pGq AGLK pJJJ

'J T0O OUG 11LfJJGL UC410L 0bGLf1IJ !U 41JJGTL ,11A0L 12 41JJ41 p?. 4IJJG pGIuuiIJ

Page 34: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

LCLCUCG bLoIiJJG Ic jj IiWq€ 4! 111 I}JG UO-BL!f2JJ OUl D1!°11'12111 IJ B11 røm OL HO11 J(OU 4JJ BG11JIJ bLownJcGq ! L6Lc€q y€ uouu-

GLG pOAG 3 piJJiOU L JU 6XC622 uoç OUj?. O 4JJ€ wOuGçLA p2G ( p!JI!ou)

p? fl CffLLGUC? vc cJJG Guq O J3 HOUR K0U OLG!U GXC}JIJG

fl qoJL ITIJqGL IAJCJJ GAGLX JJ-bO6L€q j.Jou Jou qoffs'L aafrGq a pcj€q

j€puicjj? HOUR KOU2 WOIJ6çL?. 224GW 12 CTILLGUCA poq p€q ou

JIJçGLG2ç iu nbpojqJu !l8 €uq o pLqu

CJGLJ poGi€L qOWG2cc 01. GXGLIJJ q6J€obuJ6uce conjq jc€i CP!'-' bGLc6A€q

BLG2GLAG HOUR J<0U2 €XJ2çIJJ GCOJJOIIJTC 2GIJJ OL jç2 ?6L2 1J€L j2ou pTJ? J J Jj LGAGL2JOU !AJçJJ BL1fJIJ BGIlJU bLoun2Gq

OCcOPGL H°' KOU YCG8 1mCGL4U !1 p20LpGq P CP!UH01I }(0U oiJc1 fl cfoffL& A}T!CJJ JJ2 pGGu 20fl 1AcJJIJ pvq 8IUCG

oIjG boiuiu€uç 0L cçcjc p? Cf1LLGJJC? 1XJLJG2 J!uJ p€çr cpJ0U Mifi Ic CJJOO2G LGçrnu !8 qoJJL puJ

cILLGIJCJ€2) Jyijuqe !ucL6!uIX p€u rnAoicq iu ?€u poNL

LoflUq EIAI CL!262 !A}J€U 21JJJJ JJ6L€2 cffljGLGUIJ2 nb

iç€ B'LLS1JGUJGUç pGctAGGu BGIfflJJ mq fflXGUJ0(1L JJ€L6 JJAG Gb2oqG2

oj !c2 q€pç n rp°" ojjo (D62b!cG cpG jou€iç? o 6xcJJu6-pIJJGaç LO " OECD II BGI1J7IU 0AGLUWGJJc GJiGL qGcqG2 40 IUJG BLç

qi E°1. €xiiibj& BGJfW2 q€pc 21IJ2 gç tocmq JO bGLcGuç o CDb cp€

drnç€ A(1J1JGLJG uq corijq pG atAGbç in !UJ( ou Lc!cJG

LGUJIU bGGq lu aTçsu6 pqq 8OWG 0 jouaç cuqu jxq buçiJJ}JIT 12 U0 (WLUGG JWç IJ O JJG IJJ1OL CJTLLGUCIG2 !U jypj€ li4JJ

G'u ecT2çJIJpJG GxcpuG LG2 boj!c!cJJ? qjjcrqc muçIrJ6U2 2rIbbOLc co OJ1L COUçGu0U cPc 1-V'JWr!"GJGW6IJ !U CffLLGUC? c142G2 CIJ

yiiiiaç J3 51JJ GLG TJIJqGL .thJJflG bG6q cJJ' JJ9LLOIAGL pUg2 J,JJ!8

Page 35: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

JU OcP T5 PL1U!U por1 UU GIjGCAG q6/2J119IOJJ o pc beo

bopci€ ncjJ e u !wboL x mcp nçp u GxboLç npeq? z.€uiug nq pi bjoAconuA cu UA0Jq q n.€ qGAJnou mpJJG 2JWJ1JUU jocç2 pA ruepçniu COWWGLCJUJ

pc€q LUG p 2nLAIACq (nuj ;rnc oLiLu) mp jyj nbboi.ç j morp wcu ornu11101.6 mç€uo 8b9cnLJAG bLceim V6L 4JJ6 (GXrcU CLJ22 4JJVU q?q H0U K° psi; 4}JG b€o

qoJJL JJIJJC JJ jyj bGLGGIJ IOLCJU 6XCJJ%f1J6 pcjciii Oj cJJC p926 JU VbL!J JJ yLGIJ 119

L91J2J;JO1J 011 HOUR }(OIJ2 CIILL€UCA 2A2I6UJ JJJG IIILA J22lfl on 011 VL UlJ119 !AJJJCJJ COJJJIJJGIJCGq

J36€L2 9L61J jJGG (Jg) iAGU JU46L;iu qcnou o1 ;JJG pJJb9C 01; 4G Töö

AoJc!J!c?. .MP!JG LGqrrcu 8f12c6bçpflç? 2bGcnJcJAG CJLIJOLG GXipJG OtW OGXCJrnU6-LçG bt.oiq€ M pwJc C1TLL€UC?.

jxcq L94G jG: 19LgG OIJG

24L O JGXJCU CLJ2J8JebGcnJ11çJAG cbJç11J ociç1;Jotia ou OCC112JOU uJo2ç L€c6uJA. Ju 11ufr11L?. Iö2 11T56L

11LJCG2 11L6 IA11LG OJ 4JJ2 bO22!p!J!c? 11uq 4}JG COfTUçL? JJ112 11JL€qA GxbGLJGucGq

!" pççjiu eb€cnI11coLa JJJII& GAGII HOLJ KOJJ2 CITLL6UCA njçixuç€jA. corrjq yjy

HOJ.7 KOU €couom? ci1 onjq uoç JJJcGJ iiuç ;o !c2 qof1L?. edriuqGLGq

HOUR K0U32 OL€JIJ CfrLLG1JC?. L62GLA68 DG2bcG Jç bLoIi.rrUG uoç

VIP' CP!' OA€L !U jj iç liJJJ 8J20 22J1WG njçiwç€ OtAU6L2JJJb oj

!2 JØØ bGLcGuç cLGqpJG

ICJC8 u€q iJOç p€ qGç€LLGq 1T1J1628 IJJG CJTLL6UC22 JQ3 b€LCGIIç pcjurJ pA LGUGLAGB

LG2 JJJG dsi€eçiou 12 MpG4JJGL ci' AG M!JI O ITRG L€26LA62 q UGcG2211LA:

GIJOITJJ LG2GLAG8 01, puq JTJJA }CJC IJ0UGLA p€e wç bL6AJJ1u Gxcp11us

18 coiiiwoiJjA ynJA COffUL68 qo iioç JJ9AG CITLLGIJCA po11Lqa 9A6

CIILLGIJCA poLq uq ocy€ xq 6XCJflflJG LG LGJWG2 2 uoç cJGL-crrç u

piiç GAGU Oj JAJJ 2 HG iii JpJ€ J poA& OiAGAGL 4JJG qI2çJUCcJOU pGçtAGGU

Page 36: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

IJJGIJ4 IU L6J GXCIJJG LçG2 flUGL bG o pnGbLuc JJO/!GAGL c€ç OUG

T!UJ1!IJ 2JJOLc-çGLW GXCJJ1JG LG AOJçiJiç?. B 2 epLb qpTur-cw woi€-bLoboeiJe qo uoç AJGIA JJ6 OIJG B IJCOL pciç LJJGL 2 qGAiCG OL

(T) GUAJ2IOU LGrc!AGJ2. tLGdffGIJ (çpoLTp emj) cpu !u

i'qq 20W6 pJflGbLpJç8 OL OUG& ancp a ou€ 2J.cGçcpGq p? jiJjwm8ou

WOAGW6U uq u.w2 GAGZJ qG8cpiJG cjiur

GG2 o ou€ jcj cLGqpJJc? cp liiJJ qo JG28 O 2çøppG NcJJu-puqxco GxbGLIGucG epoth2 po GAGU v Gxbuqu OUG cu coJJb2G rrçiiiq bOLflJ qGAffJnGq fflJGL bLG22frLG piqu LGLGG puqa !fkqG

uuq b0LflJ RLGLG jJ oLc€q ofrc O 0UG2 J IAlqG ]1J brnJJ

pc€q xcpuG Lç pJqG6q qcruu OU EVI BL!IU 2buwuuJu pw u yc€ oj abGcrrJc!AG BLG22I1LG bLG2Guç2 9jJ bLopj€w2 o

Ic qo€e uoç Bo2çbouG oLGA€L p€u ouGe pOI1IJqLIG2 L€ LGcpGqw boaçbou€ qø O LGCJCOUU 011 tAJJ!CIJ GXCJJIJG LG COUJ6 mJqGL

JLGç OUG2 8ITUGL LOUJ CL!bbJ!U qLMpcJ JJOIIGAGL fljJGLG2 tiAJqG puq

O 6XIpJG L4G2 IJq 1J36 84L!ICJCGc o pcGq

iioJTJq bbGL bLoi9qG ooq bLcçIcJ JUCG pGct!GGu 2GGWIIJ cjo2

JJ cLGqipTJJ 0 CommicuJ€uc GXCJJUG LcG UJGCJJUI8UJ jy€ç SOUG2

cçJAG ne€ o IuoUGLX bojic?. RLGU iç 12 UJO2 IJGGqGq GIJJ7IJCIIJ OAGL-

puq UJOAGUJGUç8 bLG211111PJ puq !A 4JJG ITcJJOLIç1G8 UJOLG 2cob€ joL

JoIA€L GqG2 oJ !c2 puq ous q6JAGLe gi qqq pGUGc p? eçp1JIIu uçr.-JIJAG2ç0L2 €xbscç iUçGLAGIJç!OU JA}JGIJGAGL GXC}JUG LG LGC}JG8 nbb6L

CGUçLJ pgUJc NJJIJG 2!JJ LITJJU OJT GX4LGIUG GXC}IUG LcG pTCçffTOU2 J,OLGOAGL

x€q LG8 L(IG JJç 0UG8 LGI1CG obboLçnuJçi€ 0L ou€-ii G2 JU24

LGU AGL2JOU O pG E0bG OIJGçWLX 2?8cGUY JjJ026 M0 bLGsL

o'- coumJouJ?-q8cneaGq JçGLuçIAG ou BbbLocp rn çp

Page 37: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

5e

IJq 1JJfT2 iu L62çUOciIJ LG2 COJT11JçL? CIJ JX c iJJOç OJJG C11LL6UC? OL p2JGç O CI1LLGJJCIG&

9 6XCJJUG L€2 CLO22 JJG LG2 O tAoLJq LG P MOLJ O UJ1Jcu o iu iU2JTJJIJ Low 9jGC2 o tç€a

1OçJC& JIrnJJ JJ6L6 LG J!UJ2 4O JJON jL flJ?k 011€ ripe€ç o C0JI4G2

(2G6 gooj J0cr)6LØ4!0U CIJ CçIWJ L€qrrc6 uc-LqJciou CLGqipJ7ç7 uq jq 4° JJJJ€Luj&çoucornJcLi€ p qGdrrnG Ju24içiiioJJj C0IJ2çLJ1Jç2 011 OAGLJJ rnuciou coob-

IJJ6JJ L€ 0J20 rrç€q p? J I161}J€L

aom€ biçtjje o coobGLç1A€ m 1J€UIJCG O JXGq 6XCJJU€ L€ COIJJIJJ-

oj Joti qouJ€2ic !ucrow

0UJ?k IIJçGLAGJJçIOIJ2 ru iu€.ti qo uoç cpLG6u ice bLJuJ6 opiGccii.€

B1qGepUJC pcq p?k ILIJ OA6LIJUJ€IJç }J2 IJç6LbL€çGq !c °PI!c!°"

40 HU11JJ4€q 111 €GIJ2G O JJ€ LG€q bLiçiGe HOMGA€L GW118

einjcucj? u bb€iY OL €xgujbj& cp EY couninça JJO€U qJjcJTJc 2LOL1 CITLLGIJC? bLçuGL combloune€ ice qow€eçic oe

p€ bju o u2. qinaçI11€uçe WOUGçL?. bojic? pnç iu bLcçJc€ Ic ic

cp€ o coobGLio1r pcuçIoirnj cooLquuçrou cu u bLiucbJG 8bL6qpGq6Afl HU!J€LI €XCJJIJG Lç€ b€e (LGrrJL 01 pc€) imbj?. bLcçicJ Jimiçe

mnçnj iç€ L€ç2 fl0R€AGL 2WG !ucGuc!AG bLopJGuIe

pA JCJ O OL€!JJ-CJTLL6UCA L62GLt€2 qebbGL tAJJGU C€UçLJ pup coobGLçG

JJLOH}J pJJGLJ OL W1TJçIJ€LJ COObGLc!OU ye jiiAe uA coueçLJuçe boe€q

x€q GxcpiJ€ L€2 L€4 ou€e ciJ u br.uc!bJ& G mq€ 11101€ CLGgTpJ€

LçG oujA pç Jç €cçe mjc€ç beAcpojoVuiA p€ jiççj€ IJJOLG JJU bjc€po qjij€r.ju lu bL1ucbj6 GLOW trA

Page 38: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

3ifoq u3Jsuom Iii sisi 91IBfI3X9 9flT .V

svitairiella 5rL rier{i I8dw 3iiam91do1q 918 ano io asq a1 en8fbx9 II

-113839 918 2noi b9qx9 1qqua-eriom e1daarw bnui 'iiidih913 wol 88 18108111

atai enarbx5 bna rioitafini thod rtiwbi ot rbnolqqa r1iaimo1q a m9Ido1q Iait

thwoi bna siaI A .anothufLath iloq isnorn 3iPa9mob 1no191 ot 81 ithta!ov -b1o338 (till )!nad 1itn n9br1sq3br1i 1I9(1LIlfl8 a nivar1 BrLf 8t85LJ8 swaietiI

vtiJid1b913 rioitafini aitim 1183 a3lqiDLlflq 3ifoq '1B9flo(r1 $V V1581103 ot IIL

a ias svfi aaq r{ ievO .Bnoita33qxs ac1arIoitafini rth9woJ 'd319r1I 8m9Ido1q

r13ao1qqa airli lo anaiiav bsqoba 9vari bliow r1 ftroiiuoii{ asi1tmioD lo l9drrIun

'.bnaIas wM bria 9Iif1D BbaIIaD $Df181'I IaPI nibu1Dni

natioqmi sdt eIdiaaoq sd am 39dDaoiqqa Iarioijiitni lo 3fl8V a 9h1{W

118 1118iJ farLI a 5311311$qx9 581 &fI8fI3X5 b5xfI erLt ff1011 b5rrxa9I sd o (108851

asisini fIB &Pai snaibX9 sr1 ed Ji ier1eriw—iorbuia Iaritrnon a as 931-xq eaaa

IISD aeohq saaA .oifameldoiq '19V 8L—9*IBffl ,bo,ia stht 10 893I1 fIi8Lf 0(1 $IB1

ef181{3X9 ed xfl of nifqmsa :anoilabeqxe rI1(Ia({3 o evthaiisa Iemeixe ed

aeietrit ru anozaiv 1)11w o1 basl ns anoi1aDeqxe eidalov 10 5381 9({ iii etai 81.vi1idib913 3iloq ru asiiiiqiri ailotisa o 19t8mLJ.IJ brI8 89V15891 brui aBI

a10I3B1 viatsiiorii aa IIsw 88 'iaIsriomriori ot brioqasi astai en&bxe SiOmIsr1UJ'J

eMvaia (183 D11oq 'iaeriom 5at3Lb ot etai 311811DX9 bssq a rnwo11a 1)118

thvi twit euia (1) if 818W baa (OQ1) inilledaT bsa 11q .(8eI) f1ooJL oeE'

eonalacf isttsd 115V9 118 9V$iIfZ)8 1183 ai081t11o3 b988d-eVitIlSOfll )1118d 1aiIiieo iusbneqebni sift

lalino3 b sonaJ-Ioqmi eu i iol ioqqua 1aohiqrnL .noiiailidBta lamliqo bna noitafini wol lo

illiiD baa ($OO1) narnisiifu3 (COI) aiemmu bria Bni83IA d asvi 81 sonsbneqebxii )Inad

Iaiinso beoiiwf as twit uia (8O1) insia .aisdio noma (!O!) inillsdaT baa o,abnsbeaM

.898801 iiiqtuo ufiuf tuodiiw anoitaRniisqd nasqoina Iaoiaab sift bne beqisif eonebn9qsbaf ifnad

1183 ilidibeio 9308(1 us oi at9W1Bt 9i81 i2&19t01 9811 Ot riitqmetta tail t awouiB (tS8eI) 11oo.H8'

.noiiaflni muiidiliupe iewol audi isdiai ioufid ot nibasl 9viioubo1q1sinuoD sd

Page 39: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

bLoqncçAiç?. oiiçp 'U ice rnJq uouçLqpJG ooqe eGccoLe MJJ

OAGL qGcqG2 LOL GXUJbJ& COffIJçL? MJç}J U JP IJJ pGçNGG1J

bLcGe JJGL6 cu p€ enpaciJcj q€BLç1TLG2 LOW bBb 4JJ6 2pOLç Lnu GAGU

bJGçGJ tiJçJJoiTç ''c !c ! imboLçuç LGCO1J1G GAGU LU MOLJ O JGXipJG

bU \CL C2G OL LGJBX11J IJJOUGfL'A bojic2. /pij€ AIGIA 12 IJOç COIJJ-

cçiou o LGgJ Lç€ rccombu€q p? ajo onçbnç oçp imuep€e4JAG C}JUG2 111 LGJAG bLCG J6A6J2 yccoLqu 4}J12 AJG1A 2ffp2Uç1J bbLG-

eiçrwçioue IIJ tAJJICp CmJJnJc!J6 GXCJJUG LG C1JIJG2 2JJLbJ? cpj6L JLOm cfmJ1iJ-

268 mboLçucG o JL6 qGAcoue LOUJ brrLcp2u bot!GL bLiç? (bbb)—

01J6 bobnJL LITJG O 4pnUJp OL !IJcGLbLGc!U GXCJJUG LçG UJOA6WGU2 €mbp-

yiuqmGucJe

uq iio liiaç GCI18G epoLc-cGLw AO OGU cjorrqe cJJG LOJG O JTUq€LJ?qU

iuqicçoL jy€ JuçGthLGççiou O €XCJIJG LG WOAGWG1J2 12 couJbJGx JJO/AGA6L

12 IJ& 2JUCG GXCJJJJ6 LçG—J!J(6 JJ6 JIJcGLGCc L€—12 IJ iWbOLcIJc GCOUOUJ1C

GXCJJ1JG LG2 eponjq i1JoLGq U 2GlU moUGçLA bojic? CI6LJ cp€ IJ2lA€L

bLopJGwa iu€ iç qicnjc b€ Lç€ qiL€cJ? qoe iç ofloRL

u 6XCJJflJG tç€ b€ ic riujqc€j? cLGqpflc? uq i cLGqppc?

gbbLGcjoou (2G& tOL €xgmbj& qwe uq CLO2 iQ)

gu?. qomGeclc 1ujjcoUQ. bLGeenLGe pLiu ponç LGJ cnLLGuc?

OL mo1JGçL1. boJ!c? e 4JJG 1TcIJOL!c!6e W G j€q iiçomcjj?.

OLGOA€L LGJ GXCJJUG L6 cLGc!u OG2 !!ccJ bLoAiqG uoiiqu UCJJOL

L€J uq IJOIJJUJ GXC}JIJG LçG LUOAGIIJGU8 OGU LG A!Lc11fl?

2JJLG2 IIflJIJ?. oj bLopJGwe O jx€q UOLUUJ LçG& GCIT2G JU JJG 2JJOL Lf1U

JX1L1 UO1JJiUJ GXCJJUG LçG flUOLçrTUçGJ? LGJ GXCJJUG LG

FLGc1U c}JG GXCUG LçG 12 2OUJGc!UJGC CITGCçGq 2 u IcGLLrc!A6

1U2çpiJiç?. 6J26/A}JGL€ JU 4JJG €couow?

Page 40: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

(ro2)IbEOL V ICJ12JU O pJ2 LG2flJc JCUOmU B 4}JG BVJVRV-2VW11GJ2OIJ cGC 2CC ELOO VUq OOj

1UçGLBLGç1IJ GXCJJVIJG LV462

2nbbJVuç mbj& piiç oç€u usbJ!2Tca C11LLGIJ ccorrnç Vuq VbbLoVcpG2

o BLVCc!CVI bLopJGw9 LGIJJV!U GOLG 2JTCJJ V UJOGJ CVU Guc!L6J?.

6XCV1JG LVG Vuq CrFLLGIJc-VCCOmJç qLwurc8 (oi €xVuJbJ& pcjq uuq ooja

2JJOC JJVç pii€ç GCOUOUA DG2bcG L€CGIJ 4}JGOL€4CVJ VAVUCG2 IIJ !IJGLVç1IJ

CITLLG1J VCCO1TU4 V2 liGJJ V2 iUoLmVçiOu Oil LGJVcJAG AVLIVUCG2 O }JG IJJVIIJ

6ucouJbV22pJ onçbnç WGLG8 LVG2 bLcG2 aa

qjjccjç p'jq o' mn'eç JJVA& V UJ!U!UJfflJJa V 2L1ICflLVJ uoq€j

ou VII €xbjiciç VIJq LGJIVpJG moqj 0j UJgCLOGCOUOUJ?a V moqj cpc 2 L!JJIJ?a

JJJG LJ1ç}J 12 uo wbj€ GXC}JVIJG LVG LIIJG CVII e1p2ççrr4€ OL p1u bojicA

Ju6Ai4VpJG COLLGJVc!OU pGçliaGGU CITLL6U VCCO11U2 VUq GdrnJipL!r1m GXCVIJG LVç€2

CJTLLGIJ VCCO1T1J VIJq jOMGL JJS LGVJ GXCJJVUG LV4€ JJJITT2 12 IJO

JIJCLGV2G III OA6LIJTJJGU 2bGuqIJ OH e!uJujcVuGorreI? ftOL2GU JG

LV46 HoGAGLa V IJuTUJ6L 0j jVCcOLa—OL GxVUJBJ& V pVjVuCGq-pnqGç

C11LLGIJ VCCOLTIJ qGcç8 COIJ24J1G CJGVL GAGUCG O VU OAGLAVJJTGq LGVJ GXCJJVJJG

yUOcJJGL bobrrjVl LJIJG O pmIJp 12 V2G Oil JJGbLGun2G JVLG Vuq 2fT2çVIJGq

!UcGLJGIJ4!Ou 111112c VjjOI OL bLoqncçi -peGq bbb qGAVcou2

HJn2cLVc!OU O 6UGC4 yIJ? VççGWb 4O ff26 bIDb V8 V 11G 40 WOUGçVLX bojic?

cGbçJouVJJA p1p 8GCçOL bLoqucçJAç?. LoAçpa bLoAiq€e CVIJOJJICVJ

O ice -pV2Gq LGVj GXCJJVIJG LVcGIa VbB1y J!JJ1CJJ }7V2 qGCVqGC O

GXbGLTGUC6 V L126 111 }J6 LGJVçIAG bLICG O IJOIJLVG oOq& VIJq VU VBBL6CIVc!OU

Page 41: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

L0L g LGCGIJ qJCn221OIJ 2GG C9LP6L 1Jq J9?JOL (ra)

Lgu2CçiOu C02ç2 }JJGL L)Ju o qJ8COnLG }JLOJTT}J 4X62

(T2) OjGL 6mbiLicJ GluqGJJcG I}'4 2cocJ-bL!CG AoIl!J!cX qo uo jj IA!c}J }J}JGL

2mubiou uCLG92€q coeç iiujj €qrrc AoJçpçA OU€ uq GI1!U

4GLUIOLWJ GCOIJOUJIC uJçLq6bGuqGucG p2 LORLIJ ! uo CJGL bi€-

NoLJq GCOUOUJA IAJJ ncci boalc!Aa Gj6Cç EAe!OU JJ2 GCOLUG UJfICJJ G2!GL 2pA L6iUIUIJ Cbçj WLJG LG2çLICçIOU2 J2 JIJ(GJA iwboes 2rurcuç coç ou

COU4LOJ2 CIJ LGqJTc€ 4}J6 AOJçJçA o jjorçiiJ LG2 pn pcj cjocj

pc€q GXCJJ1JG LçGe IJJOIJ iUqn2çLrnJ COrnJ4L1G& 2 liGJJ 2 pA 20W6 NJJO p€JJGAG

ou cbçj pi bLobo26q poçp pA aoius iijJo AOL

bLopJGm2 LG ps 2JJ6 jx€q LçG

O LGCJ(OIJHJ JiI4JGU 4}J€ €qGe O }JG puq LG LGCJJGq OJJCG JJbbGIJ&

cJJG +12 BGLCGIJç pJJq8 oL EIt'12 CnLL€UC!G2 pGjb? wuA pA bo2cbou!u jJ€ qA

LOOUJ OL UJU6JTAGL JJJJG LGC61J IJJOA6 JG28 VS44JA muq aA2ç€IJJ& 2ITCJJ

WIJJIA IJA BGJUJG8€2 JU CO11U4LA2 COUJWIçUJGIJc jx€q LG uq JGAG JçJG

piTA pcjc cJJG!L UJOUGçLA p2G2 HOMGAGL iirç Jopj cbiçj WLJG2G2IpJ& OL W024 COIflJcL!62 CIJ G2JA W112GL LG2OITLCG2 IJGGqGq

2€AGLJ A€L8 Juçcç cc'- bobnJL &2qOUJ jx€q LG2 UOLILWJA L6

bpçi€ oujA ir.A eujj uiimp€i o jxq €XCIJG LG2 pi€ 2flUIGq jJG b2çLOW g UIIUOL GcououqG& oj epGJqow& uq pGIqJA qGb6uqGuç bL!uc!-

pGç.thGGU xq uq GxipJ6 71 621JJJA pGCOW1U wooç y2qG

1JUOIJ ie q KGUGU ioea) jor. woç CO11TJçLG }JOIGA6L

nuqm€ucj aen€e iu UçGIJJçOUJ ijirnic€ (ec& GxIIwbJ& nuqGJJ mei y¼jcg-

JJJJG C}JOJCG pGçMGGU ixq uq UGXJPJG €XCJJ91JG LGB }J2 JO1J 6GIJ OUG 1JJO2

8 COUC1I1OI12

Page 42: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

iS io&r 14€m JoLJ: H9LbGL jçoii bb jj-bcrijçou 99!IJ2ç cPG H' K0 D0JI9L JJJOUJ92 T BL€Uç tO-

[i1 BGGL& Dq J JJJOUJ92 9L€Uç 9uq /1J M9II9C6 bGC1Tj9OIJ2 9poslc

228-eTo•

b0J!C Ill 9 M9cJTL9J 9ç6 JAjOqG 4 coosV yrrna{i] B9LLO J{Op€Lc y 9JJ B C°'q°'- y JOJçiA6 JjJGOL? O JAJOUGc9L?.

AI9? J03 1211@5

9JJ II[9CLOGCOUO1U!C b6I1OLUJ9UCG 'otusc o\

[] JG2U9 JpGLO 9IJq 91LGUCG if IIUJGL2 CGUcL9J fl9UJ JLJqGbGIJqGucG

€bç€mp 'JnJ OL Juu9cou: ou IJJITT2cL9c!AG Ex9uthJce uosc ioun[ii yq''- CP9LJG& LcJ D9U!GJ CLO& JJ C0Udfl€Ifl O H69J EXC1J9LJG }'94€

IIGGLGUCG2

iu2c9uçJ?k 9uq qL9m9Jc9JJ?. LGHGcc ap!ic!u €xbGcç9çiou2 porrc jfT11LG GAGJJ42

opc? 9frcpoL!!G2 9J€ p L12Jc b!u c}JG!L cL€qppc? ou A9Li9pJG C9U

bLGenmG IIJ9c obçiuJj bopcA cooLqruou JmbjiG2 GxcJJ9uG-L9G 2c9pjJiiow

coocpuçq wouGç9L?. LGebou2G C9U p€ 9bbLobLi9çG GAGU i W12ç9JCG

uJ9LJ'6ç CL92JJ OL 9 2IT2ç9U6q 2JJ9Lb 9JJ rn JO9J onçbnç !u picp 9u !ucGLu9cou9JJ?

m€c wouGçuL)k boj!cA u2çIçncou2 JJJGLG 9LG C92G& 211C]J 92 9 liLoLJq-IAqG eçocj

1UjJ9çiOU uq JUe9pJç?. C911262 C9U p€ 9qGq }JLf1 92C L9OLUJ o qo-

y LO9 L9IJG o Gmb!Lc9I 24f1qG2 211G2ç2 O9J O LGJ1CIJ qouJ€2çc

u}J!Cp 1}JG J12G O qGLiA94iAG2 OL p€qu CJ1LLGIJC?. LI2J.C2 C9U 29GIX Gxb9uq

LGI1J9çOL8 c9u €ujrnucG 2c9piJic? p?. bLowoçJu 9 JO9J OA€L2}Jc JL9U GROLJ IAJcJnJJ

Page 43: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

8ITU B'J ffçG p CIJ Yl C°''-' uq gGIJIJGcJJ €qe[j} },LOOç }(GUUGJJ uq KGUUGc}J J'OO bGL2bGCl!AG2 °" JDJDb rnq pOii-

L3 i-i:•OW€ fru€t ExwbJG& osurc o €uorn cosowc f1fJ24 mr

Ei1 Eiq HopGL b uq bGcGL itr CLPGL CoJIb2!U EXCPU-JçG }GJm€2:

L MU2PWOU DC BLooJJua pJcicnçiou Th0•

EU] E!J'J'J BLL? \o.

b€cjj bbGL2 IJJ JuçGLJrncJouJ ECOUOW!C2 J40 J ITJ?

bLJUCGcOU flInAGL2Jç? Juc€LuJOu9-J EiuIJcG 26c-

[io] Eq°" HI! ' 3 o\ -'cnsy ' u.s?\

uq o oiiçp ooss os vcosonc css j:j 2-J2[} D°"P'J-' grrqrGL uq j€)uqLo M6wGL 6xico: 9OLW

co&i mpL!q VTLL bLG22 J5

[1 VJX Y

62 ouqou: ioaJTUGL IuJbGLGcc cq!p!J!c p HP111'I EL!2CP IJq yJJqLG2 JoLoccGL

[1 CI'° C1HJ ° 'q CLJO V AJ-' EXCP IJG-JçG fl26 gpJJJ2g-

6çL? ECOJJOUJ? vco3sowcuc& J,OA6mpGL jg ' jjj-jEel CI'° CH!IJGLW0 V O' }' LUWG CccA o obcrniJ bopcX lu ou-

E!UUCG MO• J3 'flIJG Th01

bCU flUiAGL21ç? JUçGLIJçJOIJJ IUUCG 2GCIOIJ !U IUcGLU

[i B'-'-° Yl!C}7GI O&S \C\!O&2 O\ Ob co-

Page 44: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

P' }OGL4 1f nuqjj uq JGXIJGL K iopoq Gcf io&\[50] KGJJ€U bGGL if JJIJG 1P6OI o obc!m1T1u yLG8: yn EcIc!c

bLm€uç O ECOUOm!C2 I2

IUGUC6 LOW C0m!!0IJ D6LGJTJØOU W!WGO bL!IJC€4OU flU!A6L2A D

Em] '1OUG2 CPLJG& bTI flIJ jLu2CfIOU C022 mJq bLIcs AoJcJJJc?:

KLOU !'° CnL JC? 2AGL!G2 JfW2PIJJ( yLpGç2LbbOLc o g ybL!j[] H"-' r- uq flU2 fluqpsL JJJG JJUU JJG 1AGqi}J

uccJouJ IOU€1L?. hJTJJq TOô'V

\% bLO%bcC% cwq OC\ J2JJJJçOIJ DC: pJçsL-

[J] ojqçsiu YT0LLJ& uq D'qq co&sc js&.-

4LJ€2 COUOC iocV TOT

ouGçL?k juçiçnçioua uq bflPfl E!uuc!J bol!c!62 u juqaçjIre] CLHJ PJ4cOL!O D°114'° JJq jypsjpin joJJcJ uq

Jb2I80

EXCPUG [/\JLJ(cç2: y 2cGbcicJ Mc 'COUOUC \OS'VUS 'UITL?

[121 CLPGL b€c6L uq JLJ( } J2JOL uq U MJJGSJ8 O EOLGiU

ll°JJqsqe %ooç o\ i uwsouc co&oc A0J ymecGLqw: MOLcP-

o jJxGq XCUG J4 '' I" Q6115 yj Lo2euJ1r IJq g€iiçp[J] Lp€L BGGL vr -iq re E 0 2A6U0U LP5 Ob6L!0U uq C0JJb26

o\ COOZC% A0J yIIJcGLqIJJ 4oLcJJ-oJJIJq

Page 45: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

23iV2cpJc2, Coisc '€ oas swc bocV jpjjm

[8] b6L22OU LOL2c€U Uq niqo JYP6!1!U DG2 LI!U Iuac!cnc!0u2 OL OU64L?

ousc o\ pu J2 i eteeo[1 opci.iq TtIL! uq K'-'P ftEXCPIG ffcG D! H"q'

(udn€ qG WUIJC& bL!2) T0f 4?

[se] OpJq YITL!C& JJG fOC O CnLLGUCX CL!2G2 L%

o cooic 5:Jg @0-2O[21 pçGJq yJ1TLCG EJOlP EXCPUG JVçG2: EXbGL!GUCG uuq bLo2bGcc2

osoc bCGwpGL jj[] rIuqGJJ }{OpGLç JjJGOL? o obc!urnw CflLLGUC LG2 \uccfls

sc aGbGwpGL me[] CJQIJUOLT joujq J Obc!mfl111 CflLLGUC L62 UCfl OC

wIPG JUC011278426UCA o 0bçimvj bJU2 \oi'us 4 cosoisV 'pluG

[] EA'" E uq Eq"'q C JLGeCOçç JTIJG8 }GL JJpLI

VffI1 Th U[ST] LflIJJIJ B'J W Ajoq6 O BJiJcG-O-hWGUca CL!G2 OtUS! 4

bL2 ie bI ti-eoOçS% 4 c!O COOk CP!° flu!AGL2!cA o

Page 46: cp'q iwon - National Bureau of Economic Research · IJq ]4 Jq I4BEI BC4CC!C CV ô'tO bUUCCIOU Ml O844 flUIACL& O CThOLIJ BWICA jucc1ou flcI2A cbi.jwcu o EcoIJounc OOqLO1i JIJaOIJ

I-Th[2] MIJJ1IJ2OU 'OJJIJ XCJJ1J6 }ççG JGUJ€IJç COOYSC OUS 'loll-

JLCJJ J2 %' I2O-Je

[] JJaJJ bpiuj Cl° OL cc'i BI.1IGL2 L.VCcw COSOC

MP M6 uJ€q LObflS eosoic yjA[2:] 2A€IJ22OIJ r'- E O EPq EXCPUG jç€a GIJ2 bLICG

€q nq 'cw CP!° fllJA6L2Jç? O CP!° bL€ bb[J LGIJ jPou T LPG O EOITL B' PJUc!02 P' }OpGLç E HIJ

P!J!I pGOLG JJG JJj S.ObW COO&1SC TIJ6 Jf J1g2-15JQ[j] gOe& yJJqLGIA K q E 0 A€U22OU EflL0bGU EXC}JU6 ff€ Cq!-

OIJG4L'X JpLGJ OUSt o\ COOc I4OAGIJJPGL

[ao] ffOOU. JJ1G Obc!WJ O cow11cm6Uc O VU

5TOIUU 4 s1o cooscz io jg

[] }OOJ KGUUGc}1 C'- PGLU!0UVJ JOUGLA bOJ!C C0ObGLVc!oU P6 C0