COVID-19 ONE YEAR INJan 01, 2021 · would still lead to fewer rush-hour trips, less congestion in urban areas, and freer movement of remaining traffic. Freer moving traffic might

COVID-19ONE YEAR IN

FEBRUARY 2021

© 2021 CCC Information Services Inc. All Rights Reserved 2

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control received notification of the first case of laboratory-confirmed

COVID-19 in the U.S. on January 22, 2020.¹ As of late January 2021, over 99M cases globally had been

confirmed, with over 25M of those in the U.S. ²

With cases, hospitalizations, and deaths still high, much of the U.S. remains in some version of shelter-

at-home. For the full year, CCC registered a 26 percent drop in non-comprehensive repairable appraisal

counts. As of late January, non-comprehensive repairable counts were down between -30 percent in

California to -3 percent in Iowa; up 1 percent in Wyoming; and down about 25 percent nationally versus

the same period in CY 2019 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Percent Change in YTD Non-Comprehensive Repairable Appraisal Counts CYd2021 through Jan 25 versus same period in CY2019SOURCE: CCC INFORMATION SERVICES INC.

AK, -14%

AL, -14%

AR, -2%AZ, -17%

CA, -30% CO, -24%

FL, …

GA, -20%

IA, -7%

ID, 0%

IL, -31% IN, -…

KS, -21%KY, -25%

LA, -17%

ME, -…

MI, -33%

MN, -20%

MO, -24%

MS, -…

MT, -20%

NC, -20%

ND, -26%

NE, -8%

N…

NM, -41%

NV, -24%

NY, -24%

OH, -28%

OK, -16%

OR, -28%

PA, -23%

SC, -23%

SD, -24%

TN, -16%

TX, -25%

UT, -24%

VA, -33%

V…

WA, -29%

WI, -21%

WV…

WY, 1%

-41%

1%Variance %


As we look forward to a time where we can confidently emerge from the pandemic, all are trying to

predict what may happen to accident and claim counts in CY 2021 and beyond. Among the projections of

what the post-pandemic world may look like are several studies that look specifically at traffic patterns.

The first, “Impacts of Covid-19 mode shift on road traffic” from Vanderbilt University and Institute for

Software Integrated Systems and Cornell University released in May 2020, looked specifically at how a

potential shift from public transportation to single occupancy vehicle (SOV) might worsen traffic post-

pandemic. Their study used a business process re-engineering (BPR) model to relate average travel

times to the estimated number of commuters traveling by car; then evaluated increased vehicle volume

as people switched to SOV’s and its resultant impact to travel time.³ Metro areas that historically had

high capacity ratios (more vehicles than the network can handle) like Seattle and San Francisco saw an

increase of 45.63 percent and 187 percent in average travel times respectively when the model had 25,

50, and 100 percent of carpool and transit commuters switch to SOV (Figure 2).⁴

Figure 2: Percent Increase in Average One-Way Travel Time with 100% of Carpool and Transit Commuters Switch to SOVSOURCE: YUE HU, WILL BARBOUR, SAMITHA SAMARANAYAKE, DAN WORK. “IMPACTS OF COVID-19 MODE SHIFT ON ROAD TRAFFIC.” MAY 4, 2020.ARXIV:2005.01610V1. P. 14.

1.30% 5.28% 4.97% 3.41% 4.91% 9.62% 10.07% 8.34% 10.30%24.12% 16.23% 23.57% 20.32%

45.63% 49.82%

77.50%

187.00%

Ogden-Clearfi

eld, UT

Oklahoma City, O

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Las Vegas-Henderson-P

aradise, NV

Minneapolis-S

t. Paul-B

loomington, M

N-WI

Phoenix-Mesa-S

cottsdale, A

Z

Jacksonville, F

L

Pittsburg

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Austin-R

ound Rock, TX

Houston-T

he Woodlands - S

ugarland, T

X

Portland-V

ancouver-Hills

boro, O

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Baltimre

-Columbia-T

owson, MD

Chicago-Naperville

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Los Angeles-Long Beach-A

naheim, C

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Seattle-T

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Boston-C

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A-NH

New York-Newark-J

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San Francisco-Oakland-H

ayward, C

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As the study points out, while travel times could increase by only a few minutes, when multiplied by the

number of travelers in each metro area, and applied to each trip, the total impact would be thousands of

additional hours spent in traffic every day.⁵

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, pre-COVID-19, 86 percent

of people in the U.S. used a personal vehicle to commute to work each day, a number that had fluctuated

only moderately since CY 2005. The time many spend commuting to work had also grown (Figure 3)⁶, and

among the fifty largest cities in the U.S., fewer than 12 percent of jobs were reachable within 30 minutes. ⁷

Figure 3: Workers by Commute Time and Vehicles Available, CY2005, CY2009,CY2013, CY2017SOURCE: AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY; HTTPS://WWW.CENSUS.GOV/LIBRARY/VISUALIZATIONS/INTERACTIVE/WORK-TRAVEL-TIME.HTML

TRAVEL TIME TO WORK CY2005 CY2009 CY2013 CY2017LESS THAN 10 MINUTES 14.7% 14.0% 13.1% 12.2%

10 TO 14 MINUTES 14.3% 14.6% 14.0% 13.3%

15 TO 19 MINUTES 15.5% 15.7% 15.5% 15.1%

20 TO 24 MINUTES 14.5% 14.7% 14.8% 14.4%

25 TO 29 MINUTES 6.1% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5%

30 TO 34 MINUTES 13.2% 13.5% 13.6% 13.8%

35 TO 44 MINUTES 6.4% 6.3% 6.6% 7.0%

45 TO 59 MINUTES 7.5% 7.4% 7.8% 8.3%

60 OR MORE MINUTES 7.9% 7.8% 8.4% 9.3%

MEAN TRAVEL TIME TO WORK (MIN) 25.1% 25.1% 25.8% 26.9%

VEHICLES AVAILABLE CY2005 CY2009 CY2013 CY2017NO VEHICLE AVAILABLE 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.2%

1 VEHICLE AVAILABLE 20.9% 21.4% 21.6% 20.3%

2 VEHICLE AVAILABLE 43.2% 42.1% 41.6% 40.5%

3 OR MORE VEHICLES AVAILABLE 31.8% 32.2% 32.3% 34.9%


Unfortunately, distracted driving has been on the rise; with people forced to sit in their vehicles longer

per trip, it’s likely distraction will also increase. Analysis by CMT found drivers distracted by mobile phone

motion have a relative risk of filing a claim that is 3.5 times higher, while those distracted by screen

interaction increase their relative claims rate by 300 percent.⁸

The second study was released in January 2021 by Infrastructure Victoria in Australia.⁹ Their analysis

looked at the impact of reduced public transit use post-COVID, which they estimated could increase the

number of daily car trips by 15 percent versus pre-COVID. This is despite their assumption that between

10 and 20 percent of people will continue to work from home on any given day.10

Finally, a study from the Brussels federal planning office in Belgium revealed that while more remote

work would reduce travel from home to work by 5.8 percent, it would be compensated for by other trips.11

Additional trips taken for “other reasons during teleworked days” would lead to little change in aggregate

transport demand, but instead cause a ‘spatial, modal and temporal redistribution of demand’.12 Finally,

longer-distance trips taken during peak periods to large employment areas would be offset by shorter

journeys taken mostly at off-peak hours; with the lower relative concentration of trips resulting in a slight

increase in average speeds possible across the road network.13

Each of these studies underscore the longer term challenges faced as traffic patterns emerge differently

post-COVID-19. For example, if approximately 40 percent of U.S. jobs could be done fully remote in the

future, but workers chose to do so only one day per week, there would still potentially be an impact to

daily travel. Overall miles driven and trips taken might not see a significant decline, but more telework

would still lead to fewer rush-hour trips, less congestion in urban areas, and freer movement of

remaining traffic. Freer moving traffic might help combat distraction driven by boredom, but means

higher speeds, and potentially more severe accidents.

According to research from the Insurance Information Institute, PCIAA and CAS, collision frequency in

the United States is strongly and positively related to various measures of congestion. To distinguish

among the variables and find the ones which best predict collision frequency, a random forest was

constructed to compare the importance of each variable to the model. Variables with more importance

have the best predictive ability. Five variables stood out: Drivers per Lane Mile (Licensed drivers/lane

miles total), Urban Average Commute Time, Rural Average Commute Time, System, and Urban VMT.14


In many ways traffic patterns during COVID-19 have potentially given us some idea of what the future

may look like, and what that means to our industry. How much of that remains permanent is difficult to

predict. What is safe to say is that there will be more cars on the road than there have been, whether

during peak rush hour times, or at other times during the day. Historically this also means more

accidents - just how many more remains to be seen.

CCC TRENDS

SOURCESThe information and opinions in this publication are for general information only, are subject to change and are not intended to provide

specific recommendations for any individual or entity. Although information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed

to be reliable, CCC does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. CCC is not liable for any typographical

errors, incorrect data and/or any actions taken in reliance on the information and opinions contained in this publication. Note: Where

CCC Information Services Inc. is cited as source, the data provided is an aggregation of industry data related to electronic appraisals

communicated via CCC’s electronic network or from total loss valuations processed by CCC.

1. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6924e2.htm

2. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

3. Yue Hu, Will Barbour, Samitha Samaranayake, Dan Work. “Impacts of Covid-19 mode shift on road traffic.” May 4, 2020.arXiv:2005.01610v1. P. 1.



6. https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/work-travel-time.html.

7. Andrew Owen, Brendan Murphy, Accessability Observatory, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota. David Levinson, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney. Access Across America: Transit 2016. CTS 17-07.

8. Cambridge Mobile Telematics. “The Harsh Realities of Phone Distraction.” www.cmtelematics.com, 2020, p. 20.

9. Infrastructure Victoria. “Transporting Melbourne’s Recovery: Immediate policy actions to get Melbourne moving.” January 2021. www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au.

10. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/extra-car-trips-more-congestion-slower-speeds-the-covid-impact-on-commuting-20210119-p56v5b.html

11. “Study: Teleworking has little effect on traffic congestion.” The Brussels Times. Friday, 20 November 2020.

12. Benoit Laine and Coraline Daubresse. “Teletravail et demande de transport: une evaluation dans le modele PLANET.” Novembre 2020. Bureau federal du plan, Working Paper 6-20. https://www.plan.be.

13. Ibid.

14. Auto Loss Cost Trend Report, January 2018 (Casualty Actuarial Society, Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, Society of Actuaries). Insurance Information Institute, Loss Cost Presentation given 3/21/2018 Casualty Actuarial Society’s Ratemaking, Product and Modeling Seminar.

SUSANNA GOTSCHDIRECTOR, INDUSTRY ANALYST, CCC

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COVID-19 ONE YEAR INJan 01, 2021 · would still lead to fewer rush-hour trips, less congestion in urban areas, and freer movement of remaining traffic. Freer moving traffic might