COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico › wp-content › uploads › sites › ... · 2020-05-19 · New Mexico Health Region 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 •

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update

A NMDOH, Presbyterian, LANL, and SNL PartnershipMay 19, 2020


Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states


Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states


Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.18.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

1167.0

65.9175.3

34.886.1

231.4

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

May 11, 2020

1473.6

74.7195.4

47.1122.4

282.5

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

May 18, 2020


COVID-19 cases by race/ethnicity and ageNM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM


Projected doubling time

Projected Doubling Time Based on Date of Test Specimen Collection and Cumulative Average Rate of Increase.Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.18.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

Metro, 8.5

Northeast, 11.2

Northwest, 6.4

Southeast, 12.2

Southwest, 10.1

New Mexico, 7.4

0

2

4

6

8

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12

14

4/18

/202

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2020

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2020

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2020

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2020

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Num

ber o

f Day

s fo

r Cas

e Co

unt t

o Do

uble


Hospitalization Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.18.2020 at 8:08 AM, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

223.1

10.519.9

4.8 12.9

37.8

0

50

100

150

200

250

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New MexicoHosp

italiz

atio

ns p

er 1

00,0

00 P

opul

atio

n

New Mexico Health Region


COVID-19 hospitalizations and ventilator use


COVID-19 hospitalizations by age groupNM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM

Age group (years)

# Hospitalized cases (%)

<1 1 (0.14)1-4 2 (0.28)

5-14 0 (0)15-24 14 (2)25-34 55 (7.8)35-44 91 (12.9)45-54 112 (15.8)55-64 175 (24.8)65-74 127 (18)75-84 76 (10.7)85+ 54 (7.6)

All ages 707


COVID-19 age-specific hospitalization rates per 100,000 population

Source: NM Indicator-Based Information System (IBIS) was used for 2018 population estimates for each age group

NM-EDSS on 5/10/2020 at 8:23 AM


COVID-19 hospitalizations by race/ethnicity

Note: 4 hospitalized cases excluded due to missing race information

NM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM

Race/ethnicity # Hospitalized cases (%)

American Indian or Alaska

Native472 (67.1)

Asian 5 (0.71)

Black or African American

10 (1.4)

Hispanic or Latino

116 (16.5)

White 99 (14.1)

Other Race 1 (0.14)

Total 703


COVID-19 age-adjusted hospitalization rate by race/ethnicity per 100,000 population

Note:4 hospitalized cases excluded due to missing race information1 hospitalized case was excluded because it was “Other Race” and there is no population estimate for “Other Race” in NM-IBIS

NM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM

Race/ethnicity Age-adjusted rate per 100,000 population

American Indian or Alaska Native 261.3

Asian 12.2

Black or African American 27.4

Hispanic or Latino 11.7

White 7.9


Summary statistics of COVID-19 hospitalizations by race/ethnicity and age

NM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM

Note: 4 hospitalized cases excluded due to missing race information


Mortality Rate: Number of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population

Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. 2000 standard population.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.17.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

33.7

0.54.0

0.52.0

10.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico

Dea

ths

per 1

00,0

00 P

opul

atio

n (a

ge-a

djus

ted)



Crude death rate: COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 by U.S. states


Number of COVID-19 crude mortality rate by age group

3.9

20.6

54.9

196.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

<65 65-74 75-84 85+

Rate

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion


Number of COVID-19 age-adjusted mortality rate by race/ethnicity

79.6

3.38.6

4.2 5.3-

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

AIAN Asian/NHOPI Black/AfAm Hispanic White Other/Unk

Rate

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion


COVID-19 death by age and race/ethnicity


Case Fatality Rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death

6.3

1.6

5.9

3.63.3

5.76.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.

Case

Fat

ality

Rat

e (a

ge-a

djus

ted)


Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 5.17.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.


Case fatality rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death by U.S. states


Key points

• COVID-19 prevalence continues to increase in New Mexicoo #30 in the U.S.o Socorro, Sandoval, Cibola, Guadalupe, San Juan, and McKinley counties have prevalence rates higher

than NM overallo AI/AN have highest burden of disease across all health regionso Median age of cases is similar across all race/ethnicity groups except White, which is higher (older

population)o Southwest region’s doubling time has increased since last week since last week (9.7 days)

• Hospitalization rates continue to increase in the NW and Metro Regionso Ventilator use remains at ~25% of hospitalized caseso County-specific rates are similar to the 6 counties with the highest prevalence rateso The elderly and AI/AN groups continue to have the highest rates of hospitalizationso Hospitalized cases who self-identify as White tend to be older than other race/ethnicity groups

• Mortality rates and case-fatality rates (CFRs) are highest in the NW region followed by Metro Regiono #29 in the U.S.o Highest in 85+ age group and AI/AN populationo Deaths by race/ethnicity and age indicate that the White population tends to be oldero NM CFR is similar to U.S. CFR after age-adjustment


COVID-19 in New Mexico: modeling update

As of May 19, 2020Epidemiology & Response Division


The effective rate of transmission for the state has remained static for the last two weeks.

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 19, 2020.

1.13


The Southeast region now has the highest rate of transmission at 1.22.



Northeast R_effective1.09 ↑

Central R_effective1.07 ↓

Southeast R_effective 1.22 ↑

SouthwestR_effective 1.17 ↓

NorthwestR_effective 1.15 ↓ Low Level Endemic

1-1.1

Approaching Low Level Endemic1.11-1.15

Requiring further mitigation >1.15

Key

As of May 11, 2020


Case counts in the Metro region have been slowly declining for the month of May.

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Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – May 18, 2020 Positive samples collected during this

time may not yet be reported.


Case counts in the Northwest region seem to have plateaued.

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Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – May 18, 2020

Northwest Rest of New Mexico 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Northwest) 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Rest of New Mexico)

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.


The spike in R-effective for the Southeast region may be in response to an increase of cases in one county in this region with relatively few cases.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – May 18, 2020 Positive samples collected during this

time may not yet be reported.


While daily case counts for the Southwest region may be stabilizing, the down-stream impact of 2 local outbreaks may not yet be revealed.

0

10

20

30

40

50

Southwest Region Daily Case Count by Collection Date – May 18, 2020

Southwest Southwest without outbreaks 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Southwest) 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Southwest without outbreaks)

Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.


Hospital resource use, to date, statewide has not risen exponentially.



Relaxation of social distancing measures and practices may sharply increase bed use over the summer.

Assumptions:• Relaxation begins on

5/18.• Absent restrictions for

60 days, followed by reintroduction of restrictions for 30 days.

• R-effective becomes 50% worse compared to April 1.Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 19, 2020.


Supplementary Slide


Modeling Assumptions

Variable Measured Value Value as of 5.18.20

R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county

R_eff=1.13

Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 2

Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 1.1% ICU 0.7%Vent Rate 64.5% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.1%

Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected

Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days

Documents

COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico › wp-content › uploads › sites › ... · 2020-05-19 · New Mexico Health Region 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 •