Upload
lawrence-stephenson
View
26
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Coupled Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Modeling System HWRF-HYCOM and Hurricane Forecast Performance. Hyun-Sook Kim B. Hundermark, D. Iredell, Y. Kwon, L. Liu, C. Lozano, J. O’Connor, N. Surgi, V. Tallapragada, B. Tuleya, and Z. Zhan. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
1
Coupled Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Modeling System Modeling System HWRF-HYCOMHWRF-HYCOM
and and Hurricane Forecast PerformanceHurricane Forecast Performance
Hyun-Sook Kim
B. Hundermark, D. Iredell, Y. Kwon, L. Liu, C. Lozano, J. O’Connor, N. Surgi, V. Tallapragada, B. Tuleya, and
Z. Zhan
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)/NCEP/NOAA
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, MD 207641
2
meld
ATMOS.
HWRFHWRF
O(9 & 27 km)
OCEAN
HYCOMHYCOM–regional
O(8~14 km)
RTOFS*
(HYCOM–Basin)
O(4~17 km)
Parametric Winds
BC
Data Assimilation (SST, SSH,
Hydro.Graphic.Profiles) using 2D/3DVAR
SST
* Wind-stress* Heat Fluxes* Precipitation* Atm. Pressure
HWRF-HYCOMHWRF-HYCOM
GFS: O(25 km) IC
• Real-Time
Ocean Forecast System
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs
3
Differences HWRF-POM
(Operational HWRF)HWRF-HYCOM
5. IC RTOFS (daily run indpt)
Remote sensing SST/SSH/Feature model to provide meso-scale features in GOM, and Cold wake
6. BC GDEM RTOFS (daily run indpt)
2. Resolution O(20 km) & 23 levels O(8-14 km) & 26 hybrid layers
7. Nowcast Only Init. Stage GFS + Parametric Winds
3. Tides No Yes
4. Mixing Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 GISS
Ready to couple tide & storm surge models
Update a storm location and intensity; Data assim.
1. Ocean Model POM HYCOM
4
HWRF-HYCOM: Model Domains in Atlantic Ocean
O(4-17 km)
O(8-14 km)
O(~27 km)
& HWRF-Nest Moving domain (10 x 10o @4-km Resolution)
Dynamic, depending on a storm location
5
1. Explicit representation of waves: 3-way coupling atmosphere-
ocean-waves (HWRF-HYCOM-WAVEWATCH III).
2. Eddy Resolving Global Ocean Modeling coupled with Ice
model (1/12o) to provide IC/BC to Basin-scale Models, e.g.,
Atlantic RTOFS, Hurricane Eastern Pacific Ocean Model
(HYCOM in collaboration with Navy).
3. Full data assimilation cycle in the Regional Ocean Hurricane
Models.
4. Increase horizontal and vertical resolution in the Regional
Ocean Hurricane Models.
Work in progress to support operational Hurricane forecast
6
HWRF-HYCOM HWRF-HYCOM simulationsimulation
for for
KatrinaKatrina
Compared with
6-hourly GOES SST
(http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003200/a003222/
index.html)
7
Year stormSaffir-
Simpson scale
2005
Dennis 4
Emily 4
Katrina 5
Philippe 1
Rita 5
Wilma 5
2007 Dean 5
2008
Gustav 4
Hanna 1
Ike 4
Kyle 1
Test Cases
& More …
being presented
8
TrackTrack Forecast Skill Comparison:Forecast Skill Comparison:
Katrina
Rita
Gustav Kyle
Conclusion:
Comparable to Op.
Coherent Forecast
Summary:
Error is at the same order of magnitude;
Error bars are consistently smaller
Black – HYCOM
Red – Operational
9
IntensityIntensity Forecast Skill Comparison : Forecast Skill Comparison :
Katrina Rita
Gustav Kyle
Black – HYCOM
Red – Operational
Summary:
Error is at the same order of magnitude;
Error bars are consistently smaller
Conclusion:
Comparable to Op.
Coherent Forecast
10
Example of Individual cycle performance
Katrina
BestBest: NHC
fKat05fKat05: HWRF-HYCOM
H08H08: Operational HWRF
Loop Current
Loop Current
11
1. Ocean Response: SST
Time
Po
siti
on
SST loss rate (average):
For a major Hurricane,
e.g. Katrina
~0.3oC/6-hr
For a weak storm,
e.g. Kyles
~0.1oC/6-hr
Katrina
12
2. Ocean Response: MLD
MLD variation at storm passage:
Relatively large deepening for stronger storms
Relatively large variation at shallower waters
Size @34-kt
Rita
Rita
Kyle
Loop Currents
Eddy
GS
LCEddy
13
SST feedback: Snap Shot Analysis
Rita, a strong storm Kyle, a weak storm
Ut: ~5 m/s
LH Flux: ~3000 W/m2
(SST=29.6oC)
MLD: 1.2 m/6-hr
SST: -0.3oC/6-hr
Ut: ~8 m/s
LH Flux: ~1000 W/m2
(SST=27.7oC)
MLD: 0.4 m/6-hr
SST: -0.1oC/6-hr
Latent Sensible
SST tau
Latent Sensible
tauSST
Latent Sensible
14
Example of Realistic Realization of Oceanic ResponseExample of Realistic Realization of Oceanic Response
Cold Wake
Inertial Waves
km5002/
15
PlanPlan for Years 2009 & …: for Years 2009 & …:
C. 3-way coupling HWRF-HYCOM-WAVEWATCH IIIC. 3-way coupling HWRF-HYCOM-WAVEWATCH III
D. Global Model (1/12D. Global Model (1/12oo) for IC/BC ) for IC/BC
A. Further Improvements in the System to increase A. Further Improvements in the System to increase Track and Intensity Forecast SkillTrack and Intensity Forecast Skill
B. Transition to operationsB. Transition to operations
1.1. Real time exercises for 2009 Real time exercises for 2009
2.2. Operational for 2010, if accepted Operational for 2010, if accepted