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Man Zhang1,2,3, Grant Firl3,5, Mrinal Biswas3,5, Dom Heinzeller1,2,3,Ligia Bernardet1,3, Michael Ek3,5, Eric Aligo4, Chunxi Zhang4
1 NOAA/ESRL/Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO2 University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO3 Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO
4 IMSG, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD5 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Improving Tropical Cyclone Forecasting through Physics Advancement: Using the HWRF Physics Suite in the NOAA’s New Hurricane Analysis and
Forecast System
1st UFS Users’ Workshop, Jul 27-29, 2020
NOAA Hurricane Supplemental Project: *Implement HWRF physics in FV3 via CCPP; Configure, test and validate for HAFSv0.1
Outline
Project overview HWRF physics in HAFS HWRF physics suite test plan Statistical evaluation Hurricane Dorian (2019) Summary
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Active HAFS developments are ongoing withcollaborative efforts among NCEP/EMC1,AOML/HRD2, GFDL3, ESRL/GSD4, ESRL/NESII5,OFCM/AOC6, and NCAR/DTC7.
A. Mehra et al.Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS):
A UFS (Unified Forecast System) ApplicationMonday, 12:05PM, Introductory Session
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Scheme/Suite HWRF HAFS_p0.1
Microphysics Ferrier-Aligo with separate cloud species advection
GFDL
PBL K-EDMFw/ HWRF namelist settings
K-EDMFw/ HWRF namelist settings
Deep/shallow CU saSAS with HWRF settings on in all domains
saSAS with GFS settings on in all domains
Radiation HWRF-RRTMG GFS-RRTMG
Surface layer GFDL GFSw/ HWRF namelist settings
LSM HWRF-Noah GFS-Noah
Orographic GWD on for 13km; off for 3 km on for 13km; off for 3 km
Non-stationary GWD off off
Ozone NRL_2015 NRL_2015
H2O NRL_2015 NRL_2015
Overview of HWRF Suite in CCPP
D. Heinzeller et al.The Common Community Physics Package (CCPP):
a shared infrastructure for model physics for operations and research
Monday, 3:15PM Plenary Session
• HAFS_p0.1: UFS MWR physics suitewith Hurricane specific modifications
• The implementation of HWRF physicsinto UFS via CCPP is a collaborative effortbetween DTC, NOAA/GSL andNOAA/EMC. HWRF physics suite isavailable in hafs-community/HAFSrepository
Yellow highlights indicate aspects that differ between the suites.
HWRF Physics Suite Test Plan
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Storms First cycle Last cycle
05L Dorian 2019082406 2019090718
09L Humberto 2019091212 2019091906
13L Lorenzo 2019092212 2019100206
2019 AL Priority Storms
• All experiments were conducted on the Mississippi State University Orion High-Performance Computing system
• The results were compared against the EMC 2019 real-time HAFS runs (HSAR)• Neither vortex initialization nor data assimilation was employed
HAFS v0.a/v0.b Experiments with ATCF identifier
HAFS v0.a (LAM)
HAFS v0.b (global-nesting)
HAFS C768 with refinement ratio of 4
Courtesy of A. Mehra (NOAA/EMC)
Overall Performance Assessment+
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HWRF HAFS_p0.1
SAR(v0.a) HAHW HAH1
NEST(v0.b) HBHW HBH1
+ Model Evaluation Tools –Tropical Cyclone*HSAR is the 2019 HAFS EMC real-time (Dong et al. 2020) results
HAHW HAH1
f72 Hourly Max 10-m Wind Speed (kt)
Excessive storm size in HWRF physics suite!!
Dorian (2019)IC:20190901 18UTC
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HAH1 f72
HAHW f72
HAH1 f72
HAHW f72
• In HAFS_p0.1 suite, GFS saSAS scheme (i.e. convective
precip) takes control of the rainbands
• In HWRF suite, FA mp takes control of the whole storm,
including the eyewall and rainbands
Dorian 6-h Total Precipitation (mm) and EP Fraction
*HAH1 uses GFS saSAS schemes; HAHW uses HWRF saSAS schemes
EP dominates
CP dominates
Dorian (2019)IC:20190901 18UTC
Summary HWRF physics suite is available in the feature branch of hafs-
community/HAFS repository Results of the first exercise with HWRF physics in HAFS are
promising: Better mean track forecast than HAFS_p0.1 suite, especially cross
track error in both regional and global-nesting configuration Improved intensity forecasts compared to HAFS_p0.1 and HSAR Excessive size of the storms Stronger storm-scale precipitation structure in rainbands
Additional customization and testing in a larger and morediverse sample size is needed to realize the benefits of thissuite
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Humberto (09L2019)
HWRF suite less likely to make false landfall forecasts
HAH1 HBH1
HAHW HBHW
Dorian (05L2019)
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GFS
HWRF
HMON
HAH1
2019 EMC HAFS-SAR Real-time EXP
2020 DTC HWRF Physics Test
HAHW
HBH1
HBHW
HSAR
J. Dong et al.The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)-Stand-Along Regional model (SAR) real-time experiments for the
2019 North Atlantic hurricane season and future developments
Tue, 2:30PM
HWRF HAFS_p0.1
SAR(v0.a) HAHW HAH1
NEST(v0.b) HBHW HBH1