http://store.bmiresearch.com/egypt-country-risk-report.htmlhttp://store.bmiresearch.com/egypt-country-risk-report.html#sthash.Ag26iOI1.dpuf

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for changeCore Views 2016 will be a relatively positive year for the Egyptian economy, as the currency stabilises and investment returns to the county. The fiscal and net export position will improve significantly on the back of fuel subsidy reform. Subsidy cuts will likely be watered down if public unrest occurs on a significant scale, however, the bulk of reform will remain in place. Hikes to domestic energy prices will push consumer price inflation back into the double digits by the end of the year. Egypt's geopolitical importance will ensure that even if an IMF agreement is delayed for longer than expected, further foreign aid commitments will materialise around the turn of the year. Western powers such as the US and EU have an interest in ensuring the North African country does not experience a more pronounced economic and political crisis. However, it will be donations from the GCC which keeps Egypt afloat this year. Parliamentary elections in Q415 will result in a fragmented legislative with minimal Islamist presence.Major Forecast Changes We now expect sharper depreciation in the Egyptian pound over the coming year, reaching EGP8.8000/USD by end-2016.Key Risks A failure to secure external financing (whether through the IMF or bilateral aid) raises the risks of a disorderly devaluation of the Egyptian pound. Terror attacks, or disturbances caused by the Muslim Brotherhood could have a significant impact on investment and tourism figures.Economic Activity (Egypt 2010-2019)

Indicator20102011201220132014e2015f2016f2017f2018f2019f

Nominal GDP, USDbn214.1230.7259.5255.0282.0291.2303.7323.3346.5369.5

Real GDP growth, % y-o-y5.51.41.32.22.22.64.14.84.54.2

GDP per capita, USD2,7892,9543,2683,1593,4363,4923,5853,7583,9684,171

Population, mn82.083.885.787.689.691.593.495.297.098.8

National Sources/BMI

Summary Table of Contents Product DescriptionExecutive Summary5Core Views5Major Forecast Changes5Key Risks To Outlook5Chapter 1: Political Outlook7SWOT Analysis7BMI Political Risk Index7Political Outlook8Insurgency To Remain Greatest Threat To Government8Table: Political Overview8Long-Term Political Outlook9Four Scenarios For The Coming Decade9Chapter 2: Economic Outlook13SWOT Analysis13BMI Economic Risk Index13Economic Activity14Fragile Growth To Solidify14Table: Components Of GDP (% Of Total)14Table: Private Consumption Forecasts14Table: Government Consumption Forecasts15Table: Fixed Investment Forecasts15Table: Net Exports Forecasts16Fiscal Policy17Fiscal Position Starting To Improve17Table: Fiscal Policy17Balance Of Payments18Slow But Steady Turnaround Ahead18Table: Current Account18Exchange Rate Policy20EGP - Slower Pace Of Depreciation Coming20Table: BMI Currency Forecast20Islamic Finance21Islamic Banking: Slowdown In Place21Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast25The Egyptian Economy To 202425Policy Uncertainty Weighs On Outlook25Table: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS25Chapter 4: Operational Risk27SWOT Analysis27Operational Risk Index27Operational Risk28Table: Operational Risk28Market Size And Utilities29Table: Middle East And North Africa - Market Size And Utilities Risk30Interstate Security Risk33Table: Middle East And North Africa - Interstate Security Risk34Chapter 5: Key Sectors37Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare37Table: Pharmaceutical Sales , Historical Data And Forecasts38Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts39Telecommunications40Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts41Other Key Sectors47Table: Oil And Gas Sector Key Indicators47Table: Defence And Security Sector Key Indicators47Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators47Table: Food And Drink Sector Key Indicators48Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators48Table: Freight Key Indicat Ors48Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook49Global Outlook49Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events49Table: Global Assumptions49Table: Developed States , Real GDP Growth, %50Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %50Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth , %51

The Egypt Country Risk Reporthelps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Egypt. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.An influential new analysis of Egypt's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.Key Uses Forecastthe pace and stability of Egypt's economic and industry growth through end-2019. Identifyand evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation. Assessthe critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability. ContextualiseEgypt's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system. Evaluateexternal threats to doing business in Egypt, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.TheEgypt Country Risk ReportbyBMI Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook,Political Outlook,Operational RiskandKey Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:How will the Egypt' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Egypt through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.Economic Outlook ContentsThe Egypt Country Risk Reportfeatures BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.Key Areas Covered:Data: Full 10-year forecasts with data- for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate. BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system- rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.Written Analysis: Economic Activity- real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence). Balance of Payments- trade and investment, current and capital account. Monetary Policy- interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price). Exchange Rate Policy- currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves. Fiscal Policy- macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms. Foreign Direct Investment- approvals, inflows and climate. External Debt- debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations). Global Assumptions- forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.Key Benefits Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Egyptand underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic databaseon Egypt, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.Political Outlook:What are the political risks to doing business in Egypt over the next 5-years?BMI's Egypt country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.Political Outlook Contents SWOT Analysis for the Egypt Market- Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Egypt. Political Stability and Risk Assessment- BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Egypt's risk are compared with regional and global averages. Current Administration and Policy-makingBMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment. Long-Term Political OutlookBMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Egypts political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits Benchmark Egypt's risk profileagainst its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risksto the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans. Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.Operational RiskWhat are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Egypt?The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Egypt against its neighbours.Operational Risk ContentsThe chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within: Labour Market Risk(Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs) Logistics Risk(Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance) Trade and Investment Risk(Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks) Crime and Security Risk(Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market: Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict. Assess your companys exposureto country specific operational and business risks, using BMIs insight on the current dangers of operating in the market. Evaluate Egypts risk profileagainst its regional peers, helping you understand the markets strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.Key Sector Outlook*Which industry sectors in Egypt will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?BMI identifies investment opportunities in Egypt's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.Key Areas Covered: Market Overview- Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance. 5-year Industry Forecasts- Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry. Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts- BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.Key Benefits Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities. Compare the growth path of different industriesto identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.*Not all Country Reports contain the Key Sector Outlook chapter. Please enquire above for more information.

http://www.bmiresearch.com/node/38424##http://www.bmiresearch.com/node/38424#tihttp://www.bmiresearch.com/node/38424#country_risk

http://www.bmiresearch.com/node/38424 http://www.bmiresearch.com/egypt

EgyptIn-depth country-focused analysis on Egypt's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight.

Egypt is a crucial market for many of our clients. Its economy is the third largest in the Arab world after Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The country has strong ties with the West and has played an important negotiating role in the Israel-Gaza conflict. Egypt's main export is crude petroleum and the country also boasts a thriving textiles industry. We ensure our clients make sound investment decisions in Egypt, using our risk-assessed total analysis model. Our teams keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Our expert views are supported by our interactive data and forecasting. We also provide in-depth analysis on 23 of Egypt's most important industries. Our analysts will make sure you, as our client, have the edge in Egypt.

http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2015/09/08/investors-tapping-range-commercial-opportunities-despite-challenging-operating-environment-country-risk-report/#

http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2015/09/08/investors-tapping-range-commercial-opportunities-despite-challenging-operating-environment-country-risk-report/

Latest products and reports

08 September 2015Egypt: Investors tapping range of opportunities despite challenging operating environment Country Risk ReportInvestors have pointed to wide-ranging business reforms in March 2015, and the discovery of an offshore supergiant gas field in August, as positives in Egypts investment climate. Yet, foreign businesses face a number of challenges. In addition to growing security concerns, foreign companies have to contend with a challenging operating environment as a result of Egypts inefficient bureaucracy. The extent to which President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi continues to rely on the military to execute large-scale projects such as the new Suez Canal Zone Development project underscores the institutional shortcomings of the Egyptian bureaucracy.A deceleration in the pace of structural economic reforms constitutes an additional concern. Although the development of the Zohr gas field will provide a boost for the Egyptian economy from 2017 onward, a short and medium term decline in foreign exchange reserves could temper investor confidence. The gas find may also cause the government to delay painful economic reforms.Verisk Maplecrofts Country Risk Report on Egypt provides comprehensive coverage of key political, regulatory and security issues as well in-depth analysis of the countrys economy, human rights landscape and environmental issues. The report also draws extensively on a broad range of indices, maps and Verisk Maplecrofts Global Alerts Dashboard.Contactinfo@maplecroft.comfor more information

https://maplecroft.com/about/news/country-risk-reports-egypt-april17.html

Latest product newsAdvisory Services

Country Risk Report -EgyptMaplecrofts latest Country Risk Report for Egypt provides forecasts for the business environment and comprehensive analysis of the key risks affecting companies operating in the country.Instability shows no sign of abating in Egypt in the short- or medium term and companies should be aware that this will continue to adversely impact the legislative agenda, the economy and business confidence. Rapidly mounting economic challenges pose a significant risk to the countrys long-term political stability. As the failure to secure a vital loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) compounds the crisis, volatility in the political landscape is likely to increase and pose a high risk of disruption to business operations and investments.Furthermore, the report states that authoritarian tendencies of the Muslim Brotherhood have become more apparent in 2013, and will likely provoke an increasing popular backlash against the government. Crucially, the judiciary continues to play an overtly political role in opposing the government. With no solution on the horizon, this fractious relationship is likely to have a long-term negative impact on the Egyptian legal environment.The near-term prospects for the Egyptian economy hinge on developments on the political front and whether or not the government can reach agreement with the IMF regarding a US$4.8bn credit facility. International investors are closely watching IMF negotiations and treating progress, or the lack thereof, as a barometer for the governments will and ability to enact structural economic reforms. These are necessary to help stave off a crisis in Egypts balance of payments and a further devaluation of the pound.As Egypts negotiations with the IMF progress, the country is likely to enter a period of fiscal austerity, with little room for stimulus in the short term. In addition, monetary easing is unlikely as the central bank continues with its policy to defend the pound. As such, the short-term growth outlook is bleak.

http://www.bmiresearch.com/node/38424##

Egypt Trade and Investment Risk ReportBMI view:BMI View:Egypt is one of the less attractive destinations for trade and investment in the MENA region. The country lacks a well-defined and implemented legislative environment, and has relatively weak intellectual property rights. That said, there have been some improvements on this front as of late, which should continue with the entrenching of Presidental-Sisi's administration. We have awarded Egypt a score of45.6out of100 for the overall BMI Trade and Investment Risk Index, placing it 12th out of 19MENAstates.Egypt's poor infrastructure and convoluted, over-regulated labour market is an unattractive proposition, deterring potential foreign direct investment (FDI). In addition, the market is relatively closed to investors, which hinders the country's ability to capitalise on its innate advantages, namely its geographic proximity to Europe, Asia and the growing economies of Sub-Saharan Africa. Although recent reforms should improve the business environment and prospects for foreign investment, these will require time to take effect. At present, Egypt is only ranked in the middle of the pack regionally for the Economic Openness pillar ofBMI's Trade and Investment Risk Index, in 11th out of 19 MENA states, with a score of 52.6 out of 100.Egypt has a relatively low tax burden and payment procedures have seen significant clarification. In addition, tax breaks are available for certain investments, particularly in terms of real estate. However, the excessive length of time to pay these taxes leads to considerable delays and costs. Additional risks are presented by the limited availability of domestic credit, which is further damaging worsening consumer confidence, in turn impeding demand for imported retail goods. Egypt consequently scores poorly for the Government Intervention pillar ofBMI's Trade and Investment Risk Index, with 42.9 out of 100 placing it seventh from bottom out of 19 MENA states.Another key impediment to trade and investment in Egypt is the weak rule of law. Anecdotal evidence and official measures indicate that the rule of law in the country has worsened in the past few years off the back of significant political instability. Low-level corruption and graft is widespread in Egypt, and was considerably worsened by the Arab Spring. This is coupled with the improved ease of doing business within Egypt's bureaucratic environment which, despite still being slow and costly, earns the country its highest score in theBMITrade and Investment Risk Index, placing 10th out of 19 MENA countries for Legal risks, with a score of 41.2 out of 100.Middle East And North Africa - Trade And Investment Risk Index

CountryEconomic OpennessGovernment InterventionLegalTrade And Investment Risk

Source: BMI Trade And Investment Risk Index

UAE68.470.172.170.2

Qatar54.465.176.065.1

Saudi Arabia61.263.262.862.4

Bahrain57.264.765.262.3

Jordan67.960.753.160.6

Oman59.258.361.859.8

Israel62.552.358.457.7

Lebanon65.965.336.856.0

Tunisia55.755.654.555.3

Morocco58.855.747.854.1

Kuwait51.158.740.350.0

Egypt52.642.941.245.6

Algeria42.027.839.136.3

Iran28.442.532.234.4

West Bank And Gaza29.642.229.033.6

Iraq39.228.530.432.7

Syria21.742.632.132.1

Yemen26.532.133.230.6

Libya35.520.815.123.8

BMI's Operational Risk Index quantitatively compares the challenges of operating in 201 countries worldwide. The index scores each country on a scale of 0-100, with 100 being the lowest risk state. The entire index consists of 20 sub-index scores and 79 individual surveys and datasets, which all contribute to the headline score. A full methodology can be found at the end of the report.

http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/country-reports/Pages/Egypt.aspx

EGYPTRETURN OF THE DEEP STATEDownload the full reportincluding graphs and images

GENERAL INFORMATION

GDPUSD259.5bn (2012 estimate)

Population80.72 million (World ranking 16, World Bank 2012)

Form of stateRepublic

Head of governmentInterim administration backed by the military

Next electionsUndergoing political transition, presidential and parliamentary polls in 2014

COUNTRY RATINGD4

Strengths Large domestic market and strategic position between the regional Middle Eastern and African markets Relatively diversified economy and sources of FX generation: including oil and gas, tourism, Suez Canal and a manufacturing base Although an IMF facility is proving time consuming, financial assistance from the US and the region (particularly the GCC) remains supportive External debt repayments are comfortableWeaknesses Nascent political system, with untested abilities of new government to implement policies and retain support within the country. Recently unseated elected head of state and uncertain political transition Regional uncertainties (relationship with Israel, contagion risk from Syria and Irans nuclear programme) Poverty and lack of job prospects, two underlying reasons behind pressures for regime change, have not been tackled effectively The difficult and protracted political transition has slowed the rebound in economic performance, with consumption and investment (domestic and foreign) awaiting clarity of policies

EConomic overviewGrowth momentum depends on the political transitionGrowth of GDP in North Africa fell markedly in 2011, particularly in Libya, and registered only +1.8% in Egypt, after over +5% the year before. All sectors of the economy were adversely affected by the period of demonstrations, strikes and regime change and by the uncertainties that followed. In particular, tourism was badly affected, with visitor numbers and sector earnings down sharply. Widespread demonstrations have dwindled in intensity and levels of activity have therefore increased, but only moderately. Uncertain governance (changes to the electoral timetable) and policies (with several key reversals) continued into 2012, so that domestic consumption and investment were constrained and foreign investment very limited. GDP growth in that year is estimated at around +2.2% and a further political upheaval in mid-2013 again disrupted economic activity, with GDP growth last year of only +2%. Most of the factors impeding higher growth in 2011-13 remain evident in the early part of 2014, although business confidence has improved moderately under the military-backed government. EH expects GDP growth of +2.8% in 2014 but this is markedly below potential. Growth of +4% is possible in 2015 but GDP forecasts are dependent on stability being maintained (election uncertainty and militant attacks provide downside risks) and are therefore tentative. Since the fall of the Mubarak regime in 2011, economic policies have been uncertain, reflecting the inexperience of new leaderships and an inability to counter the economic deterioration while meeting expectations of the population. With the fall of the Morsi government in July 2013 and installation of a military-backed interim administration, activity levels have picked up, although lingering uncertainties have only been partially assuaged. Until elections are held and a civilian government is in place, an IMF financial support package is unlikely. In the interim, the Egyptian economy is reliant largely on the GCC countries, which have provided injections of liquidity and supplies of oil and oil products.Inflationary pressures exacerbated by EGP weakness, reflecting economic uncertaintiesAverage annual inflation was over 7% in 2000-08 and remained elevated through to the time of the political transition, ending 2011 at 9.5%. The social impact of high prices will remain a key concern of the government as it attempts to limit further protests. A policy of subsidy reduction is difficult to implement against such a background. Moreover, EGP depreciation and a high import propensity (Egypt is an exporter of crude oil and gas but requires inflows of refined energy products and it is the worlds largest wheat importer) will keep inflationary pressures high in 2014. The central bank will remain cautious in relation to monetary policy, balancing the inflation/growth dynamics and social imperatives. While aid from the GCC is providing some support for the EGP (and reserves), currency depreciation is likely to continue and against this background, EH expects inflation to average 9.9% in 2014 and end the year at around 11.7%. EH expects the exchange rate system of a managed float of the EGP will be maintained throughout 2014.Wide fiscal deficits will persist, reflecting limited revenue streams and large social expenditure commitmentsTraditionally-high annual fiscal deficits (-7% of GDP in 2009-10, with subsidy provision a leading cause) have been heightened because of the current political and economic environment. Annual average fiscal deficit-GDP ratios are likely to register double digits throughout the period 2011-14. Deficits of this magnitude are not sustainable and the IMF, if it is to agree financial support, is likely to want strong evidence that whatever government is in place can implement some austerity measures in this regard. EH believes that only limited progress will be achievable in relation to fiscal deficits, given the social imperatives of maintaining cheap foodstuffs and overall stability. Accordingly, a fiscal deficit of around -9% of GDP in 2015 is currently forecast by EH.Public debt is increasingThe public debt-GDP ratio had been declining pre-crisis compared with a ten-year average trend and is estimated to have remained below 70% in 2012. However, with revenue streams limited but spending needs remaining high, public borrowings will increase and debt is set to rise, perhaps to around 75% of GDP by 2014, with little likelihood of marked improvement in 2015.Current account deficits, weak FDI but low foreign debt ratiosThe current account balance registered an annual average surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2000-08 but deficits began to be registered even before the Mubarak regime change and accompanying economic slowdown from 2011. As with the fiscal accounts and other economic indicators, current account deficits increased with the onset of political change, reflecting a combination of disruption to the domestic economy, high propensity to import and reduced tourism earnings. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is unlikely to recover to inflow levels seen pre-regime change (Mubaraks fall) until stability and security and a track record of political consolidation are observable. While some stability has ensued following the fall of the Morsi government in mid-2013, FDI is unlikely to recover until a new civilian government is voted into power and its policy stance has been assessed. External debt ratios and servicing of existing obligations were relatively low going into the crisis period. In 2010, external debt/GDP and external debt to total FX earnings were below 17% and 59%, respectively, and annual debt servicing was below 5% of export earnings. At such levels, obligations are unlikely to present problems in the short term. However, it remains to be seen what impact existing and ongoing external financial assistance will have on debt levels. Some of this assistance is in the form of outright grants.

Foreign exchange reserve depletion has stabilised, but FX levels remain fragileFrom the onset of the social/political crisis, net international reserves fell sharply from their peak of over USD30 billion. Currently, they stand at USD17 billion (January 2014 and +25.7% y/y, reflecting somewhat of a recovery) and provide import cover of around three months, which is the international benchmark minimum comfort level. However, official foreign exchange reserves (excluding gold and SDRs) are currently only USD13.2 billion. Recent relative stability in reserves reflects large inflows of aid from the GCC states, including Saudi Arabia, that have pledged a further USD12 billion in loans, grants and oil concessions. In contrast, the domestic economic activities that should be responsible for reserve accumulation (including the tourist sector, associated and other service sectors and the manufacturing industry) remain weak. Accordingly, and in the absence of a financial support package from the IMF, Egypt will remain dependent on support from bilateral sources.

Last review: 03/31/2014

http://www.eulerhermes.com/mediacenter/Lists/mediacenter-documents/Infographic-country-risk-map.pdfhttp://www.eulerhermes.com/mediacenter/Lists/mediacenter-documents/Country-Risk-Ratings.pdfhttp://www.eulerhermes.com/mediacenter/Lists/mediacenter-documents/Infographic-Sector-Risk-Map.pdf

http://www.eulerhermes.com/mediacenter/Lists/mediacenter-documents/Economic-Outlook-the-7-dwarfs-of-global-growth-1222-jan16.pdfhttp://www.eulerhermes.com/mediacenter/Lists/mediacenter-documents/Country-Report-Egypt.pdf http://www.eulerhermes.com/mediacenter/Lists/mediacenter-documents/Economic-Outlook-International-Debt-Collection-1213-dec14.pdf

http://www3.ambest.com/ratings/cr/reports/Egypt.pdf

https://store.eiu.com/article.aspx?productid=60000206&articleid=1783138362

DefinitionsApril 27th 2015Sovereign riskThis risk category assesses the risk that the sovereign or an entity guaranteed by the sovereign defaults on its debts. Sovereign default is defined as a build-up in arrears of principal and/or interest on foreign- and/or local-currency debt owed by a government or a government-guaranteed entity. The sovereign risk rating is informed by scores for a combination of political, policy, cyclical and structural variables.Currency riskThis risk category measures the risk of a devaluation against the reference currency (usually the US dollar, occasionally the euro) of 25% or more in nominal terms over the next 12-month period. The currency risk rating is informed by scores for a combination of political, policy, cyclical and structural variables.Banking sector riskThis risk category gauges the risk of a systemic crisis whereby bank(s) holding 10% or more of total bank assets become insolvent and unable to discharge their obligations to depositors and/or creditors. A banking crisis is deemed to occur even if governments restore solvency through large bail-outs and/or nationalisation. A run on banks facing a temporary lack of liquidity rather than underlying solvency problems is not deemed to constitute a crisis, provided that public confidence in the banking system is quickly restored. Banking crises are typically associated with payment difficulties in the corporate or household sectors; bursting of asset price bubbles; currency and/or maturity mismatches. The rating can therefore serve as a proxy for the risk of a systemic crisis in the private sector. The banking sector risk rating is informed by scores for a combination of political, policy, cyclical and structural variables.Political riskThis risk category evaluates a range of political factors relating to political stability and effectiveness that could affect a countrys ability and/or commitment to service its debt obligations and/or cause turbulence in the foreign-exchange market. The political risk rating informs the ratings for sovereign risk, currency risk and banking sector risk.Economic structure riskThis risk category is derived from a series of macroeconomic variables of a structural rather than a cyclical nature. Consequently, the rating for economic structure risk will tend to be relatively stable, evolving in line with structural changes in the economy. The economic structure risk rating informs the ratings for sovereign risk, currency risk and banking sector risk.Overall country riskThis risk rating is derived by taking a simple average of the scores for sovereign risk, currency risk and banking sectorrisk.

https://store.eiu.com/article.aspx?productid=60000206&articleid=1743138358Example for Brazil

http://country.eiu.com/egypt

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1883829972&Country=Egypt&topic=Summary&subtopic=Fact+sheet

http://country.eiu.com/egypt

Egypt Summary Politics Economy Risk Regulation Business Industry

In briefEgypt's political transition culminated in the election of a parliament, which held its first session in January. The new assembly is largely supportive of the policies introduced by the president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Nevertheless, the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood will also fuel Islamist militancy, illustrated in January by an attack on tourists in Hurghada. We expect growth to average 4.6% in 2016-20 as political stability improves and economic reform progresses.

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=983830082&Country=Egypt&topic=Summary&subtopic=Basic+data January 7th 2016Basic dataLand area997,739 sq km, of which only 5% is inhabited and cultivated territoryPopulation92m (2012 census)Main townsPopulation (July 2007 official estimates)Greater Cairo (capital; Cairo, Giza, Helwan, 6th of October & Kalyoubia governorates): 18,440,076Alexandria: 4,123,869Port Said: 570,603Suez: 512,135ClimateHot and dry, with mild winterWeather in Cairo (altitude116metres)Hottest month, July, 21-36C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, January, 8-18C; driest months, July, August, 0 mm average rainfall; wettest month, December, 5 mm average rainfallLanguageArabicMeasuresMetric system. Local measures are also used, especially for land area: feddan=0.42 ha or 1.04 acres; cereal crops: ardeb=198 litres or 5.6 US bushels; 8ardebs=1 dariba; cotton: Egyptian bale=720 lb (325.5 kg), qantar (metric)=50kg (replacing the traditional qantar equivalent to 44.93 kg)CurrencyEgyptian pound (E) = 100 piastresTimeTwo hours ahead of GMTPublic holidaysThe dates of Islamic holidays are based on the lunar calendar and are therefore approximate: National Police Day (January 25th); birthday of the Prophet Mohammed (December 12th 2016); Sinai Liberation Day (April 25th); Labour Day (May 1st); National Day (July 23rd); Eid al-Fitr (July 5th 2016); Armed Forces Day (October 6th); Eid al-AdhaFeast of the Sacrifice (September 11th 2016); Islamic New Year (October 2nd 2016)

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1013830085&Country=Egypt&topic=Summary&subtopic=Political+structureJanuary 7th 2016Political structureOfficial nameArab Republic of EgyptLegal systemBased on the new constitution approved in a referendum in January 2014National legislatureUnicameral, following the passage of the amended constitution in January. Members of parliament serve a five-year term. There are 568 elected members in the new House of Representatives, and 28 members appointed by the president to boost the numbers of underrepresented minorities such as women and CoptsNational electionsElections for the presidency took place in May 2014, and elections for the House of Representatives took place over two rounds; the first took place during October 18th-19th and the second on November 22nd-23rd. The next presidential election is scheduled in 2018Head of statePresident. Abdel Fattah elSisi was sworn in as president on June 8thNational governmentCouncil of Ministers headed by the prime minister, Sherif Ismail, who was previously the petroleum minister, and was appointed to the new role in SeptemberMain political partiesFree Egyptians; Future of a Homeland; WafdKey ministersPrime minister: Sherif IsmailAgriculture: Essam FayyedCommunication: Yassr el-KadyDefence: Sedki SobhiEducation: El-Hilali SherbiniElectricity: Mohammed ShakerFinance: Hany Kadry DimianForeign affairs: Sameh ShoukryHealth: Ahmed RadyHigher education: Ashraf el-ShihiHousing: Mostafa MadbouliInterior: Magdy Abdel-GhafarInternational co-operation: Sahar NasrInvestment: Ashraf SalmanIrrigation & water resources: Hossam el-Din MoghaziJustice: Ahmed el-ZendLabour: Gamal SorourLocal development: Ahmed Zaki BadrPetroleum & mineral resources: Tareq el-MollaPlanning: Ashraf al-ArabySocial solidarity: Ghada WalySupply & internal trade: Khaled HanafiTechnical education & teaching: El-Hilali SherbiniTourism: Hisham ZaazouTrade & industry: Munir Fakhry Abdel-NourTransport: Saad el-GeyoushiCentral Bank governorTarek Amerhttp://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1433517727&Country=Egypt&topic=Summary&subtopic=Political+forces+at+a+glanceSeptember 18th 2015Political forces at a glancePresent government: The transitional road map set out after the ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi as president in July 2013 called for the drafting of a new constitution and the election of a new head of state and a new parliament. A newly drafted constitution was passed in a public referendum in January 2014, and the former defence minister, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, was elected president of Egypt in May of the same year. Upon his inauguration, MrSisi reinstated Ibrahim Mahlab as prime minister, who is expected to remain in his post until a new parliament is elected by end-2015. The cabinet largely comprises technocrats, most of whom have no affiliations to political parties.The current government lacks Islamist representation, and most of the Muslim Brotherhood's leading figures are either in jail or in self-imposed exile. Prior to his election, MrSisi vowed to end the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in politics, and he has not wavered from his hardline stance since his inauguration. The army and the broader security establishment have demonstrated, by deposing MrMorsi and ruthlessly suppressing his supporters, that they remain the dominant force in Egyptian political life, as they have been since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1952.Parliamentary forces: Egypt has been without a parliament since the dissolution of the Islamist-dominated parliament by the Supreme Constitutional Court in 2012 on the grounds that the electoral law was biased against individual candidates, and hence unconstitutional. With the passage of a new electoral law, parliamentary polls will finally proceed before end-2015, although the legislation severely undermines the potential for a multi-party system as it allocates only one-fifth of parliamentary seats to party-based candidates. In any case, almost all of Egypt's existing political parties are newly founded and all of them lack a popular base of support upon which to fight an election. Prior to the Muslim Brotherhood's ousting in 2013, the group's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) was the most organised (and well-financed) political party, with grassroots support that enabled it to secure over 40% of the seats in the previous parliament. However, the FJP has been banned and its assets confiscated, and its ultra-conservative Islamist rival, Nour, has lost much of its popularity after the Islamists' disappointing year in government and in parliament. The remaining other political forces are split between nationalists who are broadly in favour of a degree of authoritarianism and a small rump of liberals who are concerned at the erosion of political and human rights. Meanwhile, the large quota given to independent candidates may provide an opportunity for the lower ranks of HosniMubarak's defunct National Democratic Party (NDP) to run in large numbers in the coming polls.

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1363517720&Country=Egypt&topic=Economy&subtopic=Long-term+outlook&subsubtopic=SummarySeptember 18th 2015SummaryDownload the numbers in Excel There is significant potential for strong real GDP growth in the long term. Egypt is strategically located between the Middle East and North Africa, and is geographically close to European markets as well. The country is also home to a large and well-trained workforce, and its strong productivity growth underpins the country's potential. However, success will also depend on a commitment to structural reform as well as on major improvements to political stability and institutional effectiveness. We forecast that real GDP growth will average 3.5% a year in 2015-30 and 3.1% in 2015-50.

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1133843297&Country=Egypt&topic=Risk&subtopic=Credit+risk&subsubtopic=Overview

December 16th 2015Overview

Download the numbers in ExcelSovereign riskPolitical and security uncertainties, as well as the large public debt stock and a persistently high fiscal deficit, will continue to impair Egypt's creditworthiness. Although Gulf Arab aid inflows will be forthcoming, they will decline compared with 2013-14, forcing the government to become increasingly reliant on multilateral support from the IMF and the World Bank.Currency riskIn line with our forecast, the central bank is likely to effect steeper depreciation of the poundafter allowing the currency to weaken significantly in January 2015 and less significantly in July and Octoberin order to eliminate the black-market rate. Disbursements of multilateral support and rising inward investment, including from the Gulf, will help to moderate the pace of depreciation.Banking sector riskBanks' profits should be bolstered by the expected high returns on government debt instruments. Yet the high level of government debt held by banks leaves the sector exposed to sovereign risk.

Political riskRenewed security concerns and the weakening position of the president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, weigh on the political risk rating. Nevertheless, Egypt's political transition is coming to an end, with the newly elected parliament likely to hold its first session before the end of 2015. The greatest risk to long-term stability stems from divisions between the current regime, the liberal opposition and the deposed Muslim Brotherhood.Economic structure riskThe economy is diversified, but security concerns pose a great risk to earnings from tourism and hydrocarbons, as well as to investor appetite. With the global economy growing only slowly, a recovery in Egyptian exports will be slow and piecemeal.

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=83731792&Country=Egypt&topic=Risk&subtopic=Credit+risk&subsubtopic=Sovereign+risk&oid=1133843297&aid=1November 25th 2015Sovereign risk

Download the numbers in ExcelCurrent assessment

Downward revisions to the real GDP growth outlook underscore the two-point deterioration in the underlying score for sovereign risk. Importantly, the score continues to be constrained by a wide budget deficit and a relatively large public debt stock. The Ministry of Finance has not yet released a final fiscal outturn for fiscal year 2014/15 (July-June), but the deficit is likely to have been about 11.5% of GDP, some 1.5percentage points above the government's target of 10%, despite the favourable impact of low oil prices on fuel subsidy expenditure. As a result, the government will inevitably continue to rely on, and receive, Gulf Arab aid and multilateral support as it works to reduce the large deficit. Egypt's public debt stands at about 90% of GDP, although public foreign debt is estimated by The Economist Intelligence Unit at a relatively modest 15.5% of GDP in 2015. According to the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), external debt stood at US$48.1bn at end-June2015, but we estimate that that figure will have risen to about US$49.2bn by end-2015, as the government secures further support from the World Bank and regional development funds. Foreign reserves have generally declined since Aprilwhen the Gulf Arab countries deposited US$6bn at the CBEto US$16.4bn at end-October, as tourism and foreign direct investment growth failed to offset the persistent trade deficit.Positive factors The positive reception for a US$1.5bn dollar-denominated bond issue in June may encourage the government to return to the market later in 2016-17, providing an additional source to finance the large budget deficit. Multilateral support from the World Bank, the IMF and regional development funds will be forthcoming in 2016-17, and at rates that will almost certainly be lower than those offered by domestic banks.Negative factors The current low oil price climate will constrain the ability of Egypt's Gulf allies to support it through aid inflows on a scale similar to that seen in 2013/14. The US monetary policy tightening cycle, which is expected to begin in December 2015, may affect demand for emerging market debt in 2016-17. The weakening pound will increase the costs of foreign-currency-denominated debt repayments.

Rating outlookThe rating, which is still in the higher end of the CCC band, will be weighed down by the weak public finances and security threats from terrorist groups. Conversely, if the growth outlook for the economy, and especially the tourism sector, improves, an upgrade is possible.

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=303652414&Country=Egypt&topic=Regulation&subtopic=Regulatory%2fmarket+assessmentNovember 3rd 2015Regulatory/market assessment The Egyptian army has completed the Suez Canal Axis, a 72km waterway integrated into the existing canal. Opened in August 2015, the site aims to ease congestion, reduce waiting periods and increase canal revenues. In March 2015 the government organised a three-day meeting of international business and political leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh. The purpose of the Egypt Economic Development Conference was to showcase the governments local development agenda while highlighting investment opportunities in the country. Results from the event included the signing of several investment deals with international energy companies, a 272m assistance package from the EU, and a US$12.5bn aid and investment agreement with Arab Gulf countries. The government has continued its effort to return to coal power generation as a solution for satisfying the countrys unmet energy needs. In May 2015 the Cabinet of Ministers adopted executive regulations for the transport, storage and combustion of coal. The state-owned Egyptian Electricity Holding Company also signed an agreement with a group of international investors to build a 2,460 MW coal-fired power plant in the Suez area. The government expects coal to make up 25-30% of the countrys energy mix by 2030. The government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has maintained the flat 25% corporate tax issued by the Morsi administration in 2013. The previous scheme had taxed corporate profits above E10m at 25% and everything below at 20%. New natural gas findings in 2015 have offered Egypt the prospect of greater energy self-sufficiency. In August that year, Italian energy giant Eni announced the discovery of the largest known gas field in the Mediterranean. The Zohr field could hold 30trn cu ft of gas within a 100 sq km area.

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1273517711&Country=Egypt&topic=Business&subtopic=Business+environment&subsubtopic=Rankings+overviewSeptember 18th 2015Rankings overview

Download the numbers in Excel Egypt's global and regional positions in The Economist Intelligence Unit's business environment rankings remain roughly unchanged for the forecast period (2015-19) compared with the historical period (2010-14), as the impact of some business-friendly reforms is offset by higher taxation. Investment-related reforms implemented by the current regime will continue under future administrations, although improving the government's overstaffed and sluggish state bureaucracy will remain a long-term objective rather than a short-term one. Donor funding will lead to improved financing opportunities, especially for infrastructure development, although the reluctance of local banks to lend to the private sector will pose challenges to businesses.

http://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/egypt/riskEgypt: Risk AssessmentDue to the current political unrest in Egypt, the information on these pages may not reflect current conditions in the country.Country Rating1Rating:CBusiness Climate Rating1Rating:BRisk Assessment2Tumultuous political transitionThe extensive powers which president Morsi elected in June 2012 and coming from the conservative Islamic Muslim Brotherhood movement arrogated to himself, the controversial approval of a constitution drawn up by an Islamist-dominated assembly and the regimes inability to improve the daily lives of Egyptians led to huge protests, triggering the removal of the president by the army in July 2013.In mid-January 2014, the adoption of a new constitution by referendum marked the first step of the "democratic transition" pledged by the armed forces chief Abdel al Sisi. Under that transition plan, it was followed by a presidential election held in May 2014, in which the former Field Marshal and defence minister al Sisi who has emerged as the strong man of the country achieved a landslide victory, although the turnout was low. After that, parliamentary elections are normally scheduled to take place in October 2014.While a majority of Egyptians are favouring stability, the coming period will look very delicate, as the authorities have failed to forge a consensual transition: the country remains indeed deeply divided between non-Islamists and Islamists, and the Muslim Brotherhood is still powerful despite a ban and a crackdown on it having been declared a terrorist organisation by the authorities while demonstrations, strikes, violence and terrorist attacks could continue. As a matter of fact, the introduction of a regime similar to that of former President Mubarak is likely.Weak rebound in economic growth expected in 2014GDP growth is expected to rebound weakly in 2014, with the positive impact of the two stimulus packages funded by grants from some Gulf countries and the election of A. al Sisi as president, provided the political, social and security situation really improves.As the economy remains affected by a relatively weak consumer and business confidence, GDP growth will continue to be supported by high public spending levels and their impact on consumption and investment, with a revival of infrastructure projects. Improved security could lead to a rebound in tourism, a key sector for the country (16% of GDP in the broadest terms), although reaching the pre-2011 level of tourists will prove challenging. Moreover, the Suez Canal should benefit from a slight recovery in international trade.Meanwhile, price tensions will remain high, exacerbated by distortions and the weakness of the Egyptian pound.Continued slippage in public financesThe deficit is forecast to widen in fiscal year 2013-2014 and to narrow slightly in 2014-2015. Revenues are expected to grow slightly thanks to financial aid from Gulf countries and new taxes on businesses, but spending will continue to rise due to the implementation of the two stimulus packages. On top of this is the huge burden of subsidies representing about a quarter of total spending and 10% of GDP, even if energy subsidies are due to be cut and the high cost of servicing the debt. Traditionally the fiscal deficit has been mostly funded by the local market and particularly the banking sector, although the already very high public debt (mainly domestic) is set to rise and to reach almost 100% of GDP.With the recent political changes, the generous financial aid from the Arab world has increased: since July 2013 a US$14 billion package has been granted by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, and a further US$ 20 billion aid package is likely to be added by Gulf countries following al Sisi's election as president. These grants and loans may, however, provide only temporary respite.Furthermore, Egypt has been in discussions with the IMF since early 2012. However, an agreement with the Fund for a $4.8 billion loan conditioned, in particular, by the cutting of subsidies has been repeatedly postponed. Relations with the IMF have recently improved, with the authorities expressing interest in seeking IMF technical assistance in enacting economic reforms, including the introduction of value-added tax. It seems, nevertheless, that the new government is not interested in reopening negotiations on a stand-by credit, as long as it continues to receive a substantial and advantageous financial aid from Gulf countries.The external accounts and the Egyptian pound still under pressureHydrocarbon sales abroad are expected to benefit from continuing firm prices, but the sluggish economic recovery in the EU (representing about 30% of exports and 60% of tourists) together with the problematical political situation will keep a downward pressure on exports and tourism income. In parallel, Egypt remains the worlds leading importer of cereals. Income from the Suez Canal is expected, however, to be resilient and remittances should benefit from economic momentum in the Gulf States, which are employing many Egyptians. Overall, the pressure on the external accounts will remain strong.The external deficit will be only partly covered by foreign direct investment flows, with the main part being funded by the financial aid from Arab countries. External debt will therefore remain manageable (about 20% of GDP).In this context, maintaining the pounds informal peg to the dollar remains a challenge, although the currency is expected to be less fragile in 2014-2015, with a slight renewal in investors confidence following al Sisis election in May 2014. Nevertheless, the recovery of foreign exchange reserves is due to Arab countries aid and not to an improved balance of payments. Furthermore, reserves are still at low levels around 3 months of imports for a country which covers most of its substantial food needs through purchases abroad.Vulnerable banking sectorDominated by inefficient state-owned banks, the banking sector is actually not sufficiently capitalised, although it is relatively profitable and the high proportion of non-performing loans is declining. However, the banks, constrained to help financing the fiscal deficit, are overexposed to Egyptian sovereign risk.Strengths Diversified foreign currency resources (Suez Canal, gas, tourism, transfers) Manageableexternal debt Political and financial support from the Gulf monarchies and western countriesWeaknesses Sharp political and social tensions, unstable geo-political environment High levels of poverty (40% of the population) and unemployment Deteriorated public finances Very low level of foreign exchange reserves Weak banking system

1Country and Business Climate Ratings courtesy ofCoface(10/2014)2Risk Assessment and methodology courtesy ofCoface(10/2014).

http://www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and-Country-Risks/Egypt

RISK ASSESSMENTEconomic recovery in 2015After several years of stagnation, the Egyptian economy seems to have resumed growth. The national growth rate increased during the second half of 2014 driven by the manufacturing sector and a recovery in the tourist industry. The energy mining industry will remain depressed due to the fall in oil & gas prices and should record a negative growth rate. This will be largely offset however by strong performances in the construction sector and higher revenues from the Suez Canal. Investments increased, compared to 2013/2014, due to a recovery in private investment. Consumer spending should continue to support economic activity particularly given the high level of public expenditure and increased household consumption. This improvement has been confirmed by a stronger consumer confidence index. The PMI index which gauges corporate confidence also reflects an improvement in the economic climate.No sign of improvement in the public financesDespite signs of an economic recovery, Egyptian public finances should remain strongly in deficit in 2015. In spite of increased revenues stemming from financial aid provided by the Gulf States and new corporate taxes, the budget deficit should remain above 10 % on the year. Spending will continue to increase under planned stimulus policies. This increase should be offset by a reduction in energy subsidies which began in July 2014. Despite these measures, spending on subsidies will continue to weigh on the budget as it represents almost 5.1% of GDP. The significant deficits recorded 2011 have resulted in a substantial increase in public debt. Mainly domestic, it is held by the banks. The reforms aimed at cutting subsidies and attracting joint funding for future major investment projects will help gradually bring down the debt.External accounts and Egyptian pound still under pressureThe 2011 Egyptian crisis had major repercussions on the external balance sheet. Since 2013, Egypt has been a net importer of oil & gas and remains highly dependent on grain and energy imports. The trade balance deficit is likely to exceed 9 % of GDP in 2015, although it will be offset by a slight trade surplus in services thanks to a stabilisation of transfers from expatriates and an increase in the number of tourists. The current account excluding grants should also remain negative and worsen in 2015. The deficit will be only partially covered by direct foreign investments and financial aid from the GCC. External debt should remain at a manageable level (around 20% of GDP).In this context, it will be difficult to keep the Egyptian pound informally pegged to the dollar. The devaluation of the pound in January 2015 from 7.14 to 7.53 per dollar and restrictions introduced aiming to combat a shadow forex market should limit downside pressure.Following fresh aid from the Gulf States, Egyptian reserves should reach 20 billion dollars in 2015, which is the highest level in four years.Completion of political transitionEgypt has regained a degree of political stability following the election of President Abdel Fatah El Sissi in June 2014. The Egyptian president presents himself as the country's new strong man. His policies are based on two areas: reviving the Egyptian economy and an unrelenting war on terrorism. Despite a generally calmer atmosphere, the near future is likely to be difficult for the country. The Egyptian authorities have not succeeded in bringing about a consensual transition and Egyptian society remains deeply divided between the different revolutionary movements (Islamists and left-wing secular parties). Moreover, the regime's repression of the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization declared a terrorist group by the government, increases the risk of a violent response by its members. These tensions have been exacerbated since the former president Mohamed Morsi was condemned to death in April 2015.With regard to the economy, the international marketing campaign led by the President since his election (visit to the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, presence at Davos) seems to be bearing fruit. The International Egypt Economic Development Conference held on 13 March 2015 in Sharma El Sheik resulted in the signing of $36 billion in contracts, which could, in future, help revive the Egyptian economy.Vulnerable banking sectorEgypt's banking system remains inefficient and highly exposed to sovereign risk. Holding almost 95% of the public debt, it hardly involves the private sector, which suffers from a crowding out effect. Moreover; the bank account penetration rate (10 %) is very low compared to other MENA countries. However, though weakly capitalised, Egypt's banks are still fairly profitable and the ratio of non-performing loans is declining.A new reform has been introduced to facilitate and therefore encourage investment in Egypt. This reform has reduced a number of constraints including the abolition of manager criminal liability and decreased customs levies on capital goods.