Upload
lamthien
View
215
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Macro Economic data
2
After the collapse of the convertibilityregime, economic activity showed aremarkable recovery over the six-year periodbetween 2003 and 2008, growing at anaverage rate of 8.4% and accumulating a riseof 65.9% over the minimum in 2002.
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
IQ 9
4
IQ 9
5
IQ 9
6
IQ 9
7
IQ 9
8
IQ 9
9
IQ 0
0
IQ 0
1
IQ 0
2
IQ 0
3
IQ 0
4
IQ 0
5
IQ 0
6
IQ 0
7
IQ 0
8
IQ 0
9
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
Y.o.Y. change (left axis) GDP $93 (right axis)
Gross Domestic ProductConstant 1993 AR$ millions - seasonally adjusted
The national public sector primarysurplus, grew up after the 2002 crises. Whenrecovery finished it stabilized on 3%. Even inthe middle of 2008 international crises, thisvalue remained positive, and on similarvalues. The same thing happened with thepublic overall balance.
Macro Economic data
Feb-
10
The sustained growth brought arecomposition of the international reserves,that showed a strong upward slope until thebeginning of 2008 (maximum).
Since 2001, current account turnedpositive. The administered float Exchangerate policy sustained the economy'scompetitiveness.
Debt Market Snapshot
4
Indicators 2002 2003 2004 2005 (*) 2006 (*) 2007 (*) 2008 (*) 2009 (*)
Sovereign Debt 166,4% 138,7% 127,3% 73,9% 64,0% 56,1% 48,8% 49,8% EExternal Debt 95,3% 79,2% 74,3% 34,8% 26,3% 24,1% 18,6% 19,3% ETotal Services (**) (**) (**) 11,9% 10,5% 10,2% 8,1% 10,1% E
Debt average life 6,1 6,9 7,8 12,3 12,9 12,6 11,7 11,1
Debt in foreign currency 1154,8% 959,6% 736,2% 236,8% 222,2% 165,4% 165,3% 165,8%
External Debt 836,2% 722,5% 568,2% 217,0% 175,6% 134,6% 120,2% 118,7% E
Debt in foreign currency 415,1% 393,4% 362,8% 141,4% 130,4% 115,1% 93,4% 117,6%External Debt 300,6% 296,2% 280,0% 129,6% 103,1% 93,7% 67,9% 84,2% E
Interest paid (**) (**) (**) 8,5% 7,6% 8,1% 6,6% 8,0%Total Services (**) (**) (**) 52,2% 44,9% 40,8% 31,1% 37,0%
As % of Exports
As % of Tax Revenues
As % of International
Reserves
As % Of GDP
(*) Excluding untendered holdings of 2005 Debt Exchange.(**) Restructuring process.Source: Argentine Ministry of Economy and Public Finances
Debt ratios place Argentina in a solid solvency position compared with other LATAMcountries.Debt services represent 37% of total tax revenues and FX debt services represent only 53% ofFX-linked tax revenues.
Total Outstanding Debt as of December 31, 2009 (1)(2)
U$S 147.1 billion
By Type of instrument By Currency
(1) It does not include untendered holdings of 2005 Debt Exchange.
(2) Debt denominated in currencies other than US dollars has been converted into that currency using the exchange rates as of December 31, 2009
(ARG$/U$S=3.80).
Source: Argentine Ministry of Economy and Public Finances.
By Service Profile
Debt structure presents comfortable conditions, in terms of maturity, currency and type of creditor. The average maturity is over 11 years.
Only 35% of total debt is held by private creditors, representing only 17% of GDP.
Almost 50% of total debt is denominated in local currency.
Short-term debt10%
Bilateral Loans5%
Commercial Banks / Others
4%
Multilateral Loans11%
Guaranteed Loans
3%
Bonds67%
ARG$21%
CER-adjusted ARG$25%
U$S42%
Others2%Euro
10% 2010-201227%
2013-201939%
2020-20299%
2030-208925%
Sovereign Debt Structure
Financial Road Map
Take the necessary steps to advance in normalizing non-performing debt (Holdouts,Paris Club and other creditors).
Deepen measures aimed at improving reputation and consolidating conditions inorder to return to international financial markets.
Advance in converging to a sovereign funding structure with a bigger share of marketsources compared to public sector agencies.
Develop the local Debt Market launching a regular ARS securities Program
Goals
•Improve reputation and consolidate conditions to regain access to international financial markets.•Normalize the financial situation•Consolidate debt sustainability conditions•Balance the funding structure
Local Debt Program
Bi-weekly T-Bills and notes auctions in local currency, using fixed and floating(BADLAR) rate.
Complement the Central Bank experience constructing a local yield curve
Efforts will be concentrated in developing a 1 to 3 years fixed curve and liquidbenchmarks.
Generate an optimal distribution on payments and increase the liquidity of public debton capital markets.
We believe the infrastructure and incentives are set to attract Local and InternationalInvestors.
Further developing the local yield curve will allow Argentina to participate in theGEMX index
Investability Criteria
Argentine non – defaulted debt (B-) exceed the investability criteria (based in capitalcontrols and taxation, liquidity, efficiency, and regulations markets and infrastructure).
Argentina scored 51% weighting the six categories. Government is working in therelevant themes to improve the qualification, aiming at widening the investor base.
On one of the primary concerns, capital control, the finance department is evaluatingpros and cons of alternatives to the then introduced unremunerated reserverequirement such as a capital inflow tax. The decision will consider theoretical impacton liquidity, market confidence and short term foreign capital movements.Simultaneously, government is working on improving access to securities, money andderivative markets.
Market depth
Four types of securities are traded on local markets:
Treasury USD, ARS floating and inflation-linked Bonds
Central Bank fixed (Lebac) and Floating (Nobac) T-Bill and Notes
Before the crisis, monthly volume peaked USD 18 BN. Nowadays the average USD is 5 BN.
10 from 13 local currency bondsexceed USD 100 millions ofoutstanding amount, all withmaturity longer than 18 months.
As part of his liabilitymanagement initiatives, on 2009the Treasury began to issueFloating ARS bonds totalizing USD2,2 BN, with maturities longer than3 years.
Amount outstanding of total debt2006 - 2010
-
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
01-Ene-06
01-Jun-06
01-Nov-06
01-Abr-07
01-Sep-07
01-Feb-08
01-Jul-08
01-Dic-08
01-May-09
01-Oct-09
Million of USD
NobacsLebacsBonos en DólaresBonos en Pesos
Market Liquidity
The Repo market, long recognizedas a pillar of market liquidity, reachUSD 450 BN volume on 2009, andshow a consistent up-trend.
This helped to develop a liquidCentral Bank Fixed Yield curve withmaturity up to 600 days
Lebacs - Secondary market 5-3-2010
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Based on the 4 criteria for liquidity and efficiency, Argentina has a good performance.The turnover ratio is growing up after the crises, and the Bid – Ask spread are tight for themost traded bonds.
Annual Repos volume 2004 - 2010
0
50.000100.000
150.000200.000
250.000300.000
350.000400.000
450.000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Millions de USD
January and february
Consistent carry between ARS and USD
Looking at the Central Bankyields and the USD exchangerate annual rolling change,except for the 6 monthsfollowing the crisis, the carrywas positive for ARS position.
After the crises, the Badlarrate stabilized and converged tothe Central Bank policy rate.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
01-Ago-04
17-Feb-05
05-Sep-05
24-Mar-06
10-Oct-06
28-Abr-07
14-Nov-07
01-Jun-08
18-Dic-08
06-Jul-09
22-Ene-10
Tasa
de
emis
ion
prim
aria
(LEB
AC
S e/
270
y 36
5 di
as)
Varia
cion
inte
ranu
al d
ólar
LebacsVariacion Dolar
Fluctuations of peso/dolar and Lebacs (from 270 to 365 days)2008 - 2009
Badlar and CB rates 2007 - 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10-Oct-06 28-Abr-07 14-Nov-07 01-Jun-08 18-Dic-08 06-Jul-09 22-Ene-10 10-Ago-10
%
Badlar Rate (private banks)Repo rate (1 day)
Hedge Markets
Badlar swap curves show anharmonious performance. Goingfrom 9,49% to 16,3% in 2 years.
Off shore (NDF) and Onshore (Rofex) curve arevery similar, on lowerlevels than past times,consistent with the actualmonetary policy.
Badlar swap curve
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dic-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11
%
NDF and Dollar Future implicit Rate
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800Maturity days
RofexNDF
Concluding Remarks
Argentine local currency debt market has enough depth and liquidity to attract localand international investors.
It has a developed repo market and is improving the derivatives markets that allowinvestors to hedge risk without disrupting liquidity,
There are a wide distribution of maturities on time, although more securities areeither floating or inflation-linked, the next step is to consolidated the Treasury fixedlocal securities.
Capital controls were designed in view of macroprudential risk and not in view ofaffecting the local market investor base. Improvement will be considered, to reconcileboth objectives.
At present, the government is working on new measures to improve the capitalmarket, with the idea of leaving the local and international crises in the past, returningto the markets with a new and consolidated issue program.
13
References
Secretary of Finance
Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
http://www.mecon.gov.ar/finanzas/
Republic of Argentina Central Bank
http://www.bcra.gov.ar
Local Market securities price information
http://www.mae.com.ar