Cork and Foran Part 2

“A Biofuel Economy”

Human populationMarine fishingEnergy and greenhouseLand and water Urban infrastructure

Biophysical economics

Biomass

methanol

DME

Thermochemical

Conventional wisdom

Renewables transition

Electricity Options

Fuel OptionsShale

CNG

Ethanol

Methanol/DME

Energy Profit Ratios energy ‘out’/energy ‘in’Methanol from wood

Energy Profit Ratios (Total Out/Total In) for Fossil- and Bio-Methanol Fuels

0

5

10

15

1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051

Simulation Period

Rat

io

Domestic Oil90% Meth

90%Meth+ZeroElect

Forest Wood Productionfor Core 90% Bio-Methanol Scenario

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051

Mill

ion

s

Simulation Period

Cu

bic

Met

res

timber out short euc

timber out pine

timber out mallee

timber out euc

Forest Wood Production for the Bio-Methanol with Transport Efficiencies Scenario

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051

Mill

ion

s

Simulation Period

Cu

bic

Met

res

timber out short euc

timber out pine

timber out mallee

timber out euc

Bio-methanol Transition

wood production million m3

90% Methanol 90% Methanol + Trans Efficiency

Land Use Allocation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Crop Pasture Plantation

Land Uses

Mil

lio

n H

ecta

res

BC

90%Meth

90%Meth + T

No Growth

Changes to Land UseRules for each region:

10% crop, 10% pasture 10% rough land

Base Case

5,000 GL

TAS

QLD

VIC

WA

90% Methanol

12,300 GL

TASNSW

QLD

VICSA

WA

90% Methanol + Trans Efficiency

8,500 GL

TAS

NSW

VIC

QLD

SAWA

Reduction in Continental Runoff at 2051 due to Plantations for

Bio-Methanol

6 million ha 57 million ha 39 million ha

Average Continental Runoff = > 400,000 GL (12% of rain)

National Headline Indicators accumulated over 45 year scenario period

Base Case, Normal Renewables and Low-Growth Renewables

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence

CapitalStocks

Future Fund

Headline Indicator

Mil

lio

ns

Base Case

Renewables

Low Growth

Low growth economy

Base Case, Normal Renewables and Low-Growth Renewables

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence

CapitalStocks

Future Fund

Headline Indicator

Mil

lio

ns

Base Case

Renewables

Low Growth

still battli

ng

Outcomes?

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/fig_tab/461472a_F1.html#figure-title

A Safe Operating Space

for Humanity

Futures

Work ?

Process of Futures….a bit like marriage

delight of the first engagement optimism and inquiry analysis and creation delivery (of the report) dead silence from policy/action start again ?

Mid career peopleSkill them up, enthuse themSend them back to the real worldRecruit a new team, still optimistic

‘Future Woolscapes’ workshop, North Head, Sydney

Institutions Commission for the Future Intergenerational reports Climate change and hydrology currently

Skills Wide knowledge, not prone to cynicism/depression Structure and numeracy across sectors Good political skills but not slippery or politicised

Boundaries Whole-economy but depth in ten+ zones Trade off capability across environment-social-economy

Structural Issues

For Futures Work