Copyright(c)2013 Juan B. Morales Ph.D. CCP 1 WMTA January 2013 Juan B. Morales de la Garza Ph.D. CCP RUIZ-MORALES & ASSOCIATES January 16 th 2013 Tel :(01152664)

Copyright(c)2013 Juan B. Morales Ph.D. CCP1

WMTA January 2013

Juan B. Morales de la Garza Ph.D. CCP RUIZ-MORALES & ASSOCIATES

January 16th 2013Tel :(01152664) 686-4116 Fax: (01152664) 686-1998

Email: [email protected] www.ruiz-morales.com.mx

Labor and Economic Indicators Update for 2013


PRESENTATION PRESENTATION OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

1.0 Employment Indicators – Tijuana Turnover_ Baja California Unemployment

_ IMMEX Employment Data

2.0 Economic Indicators- Inflation

3.0 Modified Projections for 2012


1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSVoluntary Turnover for 2013 slightly Voluntary Turnover for 2013 slightly Higher than past 3 years.Higher than past 3 years.


1.0 INDICADORES DE EMPLEO1.0 INDICADORES DE EMPLEOTotal IMMEX Employment 2’190,339 :Total IMMEX Employment 2’190,339 : Manufacturing: 1,976,412 (90.2%)Non-Manufacturing: 213,927 ( 9.8%)

IMMEX Manufacturing Employment / Empleo Manufacturero IMMEX% Empleo Total IMMEX

% Crecimiento Empleo IMMEX Crecimiento del Empleo IMMEX Empleo IMMEX % of Total % IMMEX Employment Growth IMMEX Employment Growth IMMEX Employment IMMEX Employment

Aug. 2012 vs Aug. 2011 Aug. 2012 vs Aug. 2011 Aug. 2012 Aug. 2012

Tijuana 4.9% 7,433 158,803 8.0%Tecate -4.0% -434 10,419 0.5%Mexicali 5.8% 2,720 49,461 2.5%Ensenada 18.2% 2,772 18,031 0.9%

B.C. 5.6% 12,491 236,714 11.98%

National 6.0% 111,090 1,976,412 100.0%

Chih. 9.1% 22,834 273,374 13.8%

Coahuila 7.7% 13,613 191,410 9.7%

N.L 3.3% 7,461 236,188 11.95%

Tamps. 4.8% 7,695 167,171 8.5%Fuente: Elaboración Propia con datos del INEGI


1.0 INDICADORES DE EMPLEO1.0 INDICADORES DE EMPLEOTotal IMMEX Employment 2’190,339 :Total IMMEX Employment 2’190,339 : Manufacturing: 1,976,412 (90.2%)Non-Manufacturing: 213,927 ( 9.8%)

IMMEX Manufacturing Employment / Empleo Manufacturero IMMEX% Empleo Total IMMEX

% Crecimiento Empleo IMMEX Crecimiento del Empleo IMMEX Empleo IMMEX % of Total % IMMEX Employment Growth IMMEX Employment Growth IMMEX Employment IMMEX Employment

Aug. 2012 vs Aug. 2011 Aug. 2012 vs Aug. 2011 Aug. 2012 Aug. 2012

Tijuana 4.9% 7,433 158,803 8.0%Tecate -4.0% -434 10,419 0.5%Mexicali 5.8% 2,720 49,461 2.5%Ensenada 18.2% 2,772 18,031 0.9%

B.C. 5.6% 12,491 236,714 11.98%

National 6.0% 111,090 1,976,412 100.0%

Chih. 9.1% 22,834 273,374 13.8%

Coahuila 7.7% 13,613 191,410 9.7%

N.L 3.3% 7,461 236,188 11.95%

Tamps. 4.8% 7,695 167,171 8.5%Fuente: Elaboración Propia con datos del INEGI


1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSUnemployment RatesUnemployment RatesQ1 2012Q1 2012 Baja California (5.7%) Higher than National (4.9%) Q2 2012Q2 2012 Baja California (6.1%) Higher than National (4.8%) Q3 2012Q3 2012Baja California (7.1%) Higher than National (5.2%)

States with High Migration

BC – One of the Targets for Migration


1.0 Very Aggressive Employment Growth Objectives for Baja California in 2013


1.0 Very Aggressive Employment Growth Objectives for Baja California in 2013


2.0 2011 National Inflation Lower than 2011 ** December’s Inflation – Lowest Since 2004

Nacional / National Tijuana Mexicali ParidadIndiceMensual / Acumulada / IndiceMensual Acumulada / IndiceMensual Acumulada /

Monthly Accumulated Monthly Accumulated Monthly AccumulatedDic. 2011 # # 13.781$ Ene / Jan 0.71% 0.71% # 0.78% 0.78% # 0.31% 0.31% 13.412$

Feb 0.20% 0.91% # 0.10% 0.88% # 0.31% 0.62% 12.809$

Mar 0.06% 0.97% # 0.11% 0.99% # 0.26% 0.88% 12.745$ Abr / Apr -0.31% 0.65% # 0.12% 1.12% # 0.24% 1.13% 13.080$

May -0.32% 0.34% # 0.38% 1.50% # -8.00% -6.96% 13.684$

Jun 0.46% 0.80% # 0.62% 2.13% # 0.16% -6.81% 13.913$

Jul 0.56% 1.36% # 0.13% 2.26% # 0.55% -6.30% 13.376$ Ago / Aug 0.30% 1.67% # 0.17% 2.43% # 0.27% -6.05% 13.234$

Sept 0.44% 2.12% # 0.14% 2.58% # 0.42% -5.66% 12.936$

Oct 0.51% 2.63% # 0.12% 2.71% # 0.21% -5.45% 12.903$

Nov 0.68% 3.33% # 0.28% 2.99% # 9.06% 3.12% 13.071$ Dic / Dec 0.23% 3.57% # 0.21% 3.21% # 0.08% 3.20% 12.774$

(*)Fuente / Source : Elaboración Propia en base a datos del INEGIwww.banxico.com.mx www.inegi.org.mx Average Exchange Rate 2012 13.177$

Inflación / Inflation 2012

Nacional / National Tijuana Mexicali ParidadIndiceMensual / Acumulada / IndiceMensual Acumulada / IndiceMensual Acumulada /

Monthly Accumulated Monthly Accumulated Monthly AccumulatedDic. 2010 # 12.408$ Ene / Jan 0.49% 0.49% # 0.49% 0.49% 0.48% 0.48% 12.139$

Feb 0.38% 0.86% # 0.45% 0.94% 0.38% 0.86% 12.103$

Mar 0.19% 1.06% # 0.39% 1.34% 0.09% 0.96% 12.008$ Abr / Apr -0.01% 1.05% # 0.54% 1.89% 0.37% 1.32% 11.719$

May -0.74% 0.30% # -0.63% 1.24% -8.11% -6.89% 11.662$

Jun 0.00% 0.30% # -0.32% 0.92% -0.20% -7.08% 11.819$

Jul 0.48% 0.78% # 0.16% 1.08% 0.70% -6.43% 11.681$ Ago / Aug 0.16% 0.94% # -0.02% 1.05% 0.10% -6.33% 12.247$

Sept 0.25% 1.19% # 0.23% 1.28% 0.13% -6.21% 13.087$

Oct 0.67% 1.87% # 0.41% 1.69% 0.19% -6.03% 13.446$

Nov 1.08% 2.97% # 0.53% 2.23% 9.70% 3.08% 13.718$ Dic / Dec 0.82% 3.82% # 1.15% 3.40% 0.52% 3.61% 13.781$

(*)Fuente / Source : Elaboración Propia en base a datos de Banco de México / INEGIwww.banxico.com.mx www.inegi.org.mx Average Exchange Rate 2011 12.449$

Inflación / Inflation 2011


3.0 **2013 ** Projections

Revised Projections 2012 - 2013 PreviousRevised: January 16th, 2012 Trend

Tendencia2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Anterior

Growth / Crecimiento 1.5% -6.1% 5.5% 3.9% 3.8%p 3.6%p

National Inflation / 6.53% 3.57% 4.4% 3.82% 3.57% 3.7%p =Inflación Nacional

Exchange Rate December 13.46$ 12.87$ 12.34$ 13.97$ 12.77$ $ 12.91p Tipo de Cambio Fin de Año

Average Exchange Rate /

Tipo de Cambio Promedio 11.17$ 13.52$ 12.65$ 12.44$ 13.18$ $12.75p

Minimum Wage Increase (Zone-A)

Incremento Salario Mínimo (Zona-A) 4.0% 4.2% 4.85% 4.1% 4.2% 3.9%

Source/Fuente: BANXICO, CNSM, Tendencias Económicas y Financieras, BANAMEX / p=R-M Projection


New Minimum Wage for 2013

3.9% Increase ($2.43 Pesos per Day)


Fiscal Reform ???


Thank You !Questions ?


Documents

Copyright(c)2013 Juan B. Morales Ph.D. CCP 1 WMTA January 2013 Juan B. Morales de la Garza Ph.D. CCP RUIZ-MORALES & ASSOCIATES January 16 th 2013 Tel :(01152664)