Copyright©2009 Juan B. Morales1 WMTA April 2009 Juan B. Morales de la Garza MBA CCP RUIZ-MORALES & ASSOCIATES April 15 th 2009 Tel :(01152664) 686-4116

Copyright©2009 Juan B. Morales 1

WMTA April 2009

Juan B. Morales de la Garza MBA CCP RUIZ-MORALES & ASSOCIATES

April 15th 2009Tel :(01152664) 686-4116 Fax: (01152664) 686-1998

Email: [email protected] www.ruiz-morales.com.mx

2009Labor & Economic Indicators


PRESENTATION OBJECTIVESPRESENTATION OBJECTIVES

1.0 Labor Indicators.

2.0 Economic Indicators

3.0 Revised Projections for 2009


1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSTijuana Maquila Turnover continues to DecreaseTijuana Maquila Turnover continues to Decrease

2007 2007 8.0% Avg. Turnover 8.0% Avg. Turnover 2008 2008 5.3% Avg. Turnover 5.3% Avg. Turnover

2009 2009 3.4% February 3.4% February (Preliminary)(Preliminary)

DECNOVOCTSEPTAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN

12.0%

11.0%

10.0%

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

3.5%

2.5%

3.8%

4.7%

5.6%5.4%5.4%

4.4%

5.1%4.8%

3.4%

5.8%

3.9%

8.1%

2007 Tijuana Maquilas Turnover2008 Tijuana Maquilas Turnover2009 Tijuana Maquilas Turnover

Source/Fuente: RUIZ-MORALES Y ASOCIADOS MONTHLY Turnover Tracking City / Ciudad J an/Ene Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average(1)

Tijuana Maquilas 2009 3.9% 3.4 Tijuana Maquilas 2008 8.1% 5.8 4.8 5.1 4.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 4.7 3.8 2.5 3.5 5.3% Tijuana Maquilas 2007 11.0% 7.7 8.3 7.0 7.2 8.0 7.8 9.9 8.2 7.2 5.8 5.3 8.0%

*- Preliminary J an. – Feb. 2009 / * Datos Preliminares Source / Fuente: Ruiz-Morales y Asociados (1) Yearly Weighted Average Based on Number of Employees / Promedio Anual Ponderado en base al Número de Empleados


1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSTijuana Non Maquila Turnover DecreasesTijuana Non Maquila Turnover Decreases




12.0%

11.0%

10.0%

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

4.2%

5.1%4.7%

7.4%

9.7%

7.0%6.4%

5.1%

6.5%6.4%

3.3%

6.2%

4.2%

6.9%

2009 Tij No Maquilas2008 Tij No Maquilas2007 Tij No Maquilas


Tij No Maquilas 2009 4.2% 3.3 Tij No Maquilas 2008 6.9% 6.2 6.4 6.5 5.1 6.4 7.0 9.7 7.4 4.7 5.1 4.2 6.9% Tij No Maquilas 2007 7.3% 6.7 7.3 6.7 6.5 6.1 7.4 7.6 6.9 6.2 3.9 4.1 6.4%



1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSTecate Maquila Turnover continues to DecreaseTecate Maquila Turnover continues to Decrease




9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

2.3%2.0%

4.7%

4.1%

6.2%

4.9%

4.4%

5.7%5.4%

4.6%

3.5%

5.1%

4.0%

6.8%

2007 Tecate Maquilas2008 Tecate Maquilas2009 Tecate Maquilas


Tecate Maquilas 2009 4.0% 3.5 Tecate Maquilas 2008 6.8% 5.1 4.6 5.4 5.7 4.4 4.9 6.2 4.1 4.7 2.0 2.3 5.1% Tecate Maquilas 2007 8.3% 7.3 7.9 4.9 5.7 5.6 5.8 7.0 6.8 6.2 4.2 4.7 7.1%



1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSEnsenada Maquila Turnover continues to DecreaseEnsenada Maquila Turnover continues to Decrease




12.0%

11.0%

10.0%

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

2.4%1.8%

1.4%

2.9%2.4%

3.4%3.1%3.2%

4.2%4.0%

1.9%

5.2%

2.0%

8.1%

2009 Ensenada Turnover2008 Ensenada Turnover2007 Ensenada Turnover


Ensenada Maquilas 2009 2.0% 1.9 Ensenada Maquilas 2008 8.1% 5.2 4.0 4.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 2.4 2.9 1.4 1.8 2.4 3.5% Ensenada Maquilas 2007 9.8% 7.6 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.7 8.7 7.7 6.1 5.6 5.2 6.4 7.3%

*- Preliminary J an. – Feb. 2009 / * Datos Preliminares Source / Fuente: Ruiz-Morales y Asociados

(1) Yearly Weighted Average Based on Number of Employees / Promedio Anual Ponderado en base al Número de Empleados


1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSTijuana Maquila Absenteeism DecreasesTijuana Maquila Absenteeism Decreases


8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

1.5%

4.3%

1.9%

6.3%2009 Real Absenteeism2008 Real Absenteeism2007 Real Absenteeism

2009 Total Absenteeism2008 Total Absenteeism2007 Total Absenteeism

TIJ UANA MAQUILADOR ABSENTEEISM SUMMARY / RESUMEN DE AUSENTISMO MAQUILAS TIJ UANA Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic

Total Absenteeism 2009 6.3% 4.3 Total Absenteeism 2008 7.5% 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.7 8.1 Total Absenteeism 2007 7.7% 6.2 5.6 6.0 5.8 5.6 6.2 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.2 6.9 Real Absenteeism 2008 1.9% 1.5 Real Absenteeism 2008 4.1% 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 Real Absenteeism 2007 4.7% 3.6 2.9 2.9 3.4 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.7

*Preliminary Data / Datos Preliminares Nov.-Feb. 2009 Source / Fuente: Ruiz-Morales y Asociados


1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS1.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSBC Unemployment vs Border States & NationalBC Unemployment vs Border States & National


2.0 Economic Indicators Tijuana’s Inflation Higher than last Year.

(*)Fuente / Source : Banco de México www.banxico.com.mx


2.0 Economic Indicators Tijuana’s Inflation Higher than last Year.

(*)Fuente / Source : Banco de México www.banxico.com.mx

Nacional / National Tijuana MexicaliIndiceMensual / Acumulada / IndiceMensual Acumulada / IndiceMensual Acumulada /

Monthly Accumulated Monthly Accumulated Monthly AccumulatedDic. 2008Ene / Jan 0.23% 0.23% 1.00% 1.00% 0.56% 0.56%Feb 0.22% 0.45% 1.05% 2.06% 1.29% 1.86%Mar 0.58% 1.03% 0.72% 2.79% 0.43% 2.29%

Inflación / Inflation 2009


3.0 Bottom in Sight ??

3.0 Companies are more Proactive


3.0 Revised Projections 2009March 15th - 2009

• Growth 2008 1.3% • Growth 2009 -5.0 & -3.0% (2.5% Sept. 2008 Projection)•Xchg Rate at the close of 2009 Between 12.50 - 15.50

• Inflation 2008 6.53% (Initial Inflation Projections for 2008 were 3.25 - 4.0% )• Inflation 2009 4.0 – 6.0% (Tijuana Higher)

• Increase in the Legal Minimum Wage for 2008 4.0%• Legal Minimum Wage Increase for 2009 4.6% ( Zone –A- 4.2%)

** Maquiladora Increases have been higher than the Increases in the Legal Minimum Wage based on Supply and Demand.

** For 2008 Annualized (Sept. 2007 to Sept. 2008) Increases for Directs Averaged 6.3%, while the Minimum Wage Increased 4.0% during that period.

** For 2009 Projected Annualized Wage & Salary increases between 5.2% and 5.7%


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Copyright©2009 Juan B. Morales1 WMTA April 2009 Juan B. Morales de la Garza MBA CCP RUIZ-MORALES & ASSOCIATES April 15 th 2009 Tel :(01152664) 686-4116