46
Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 1 Who Moved My Who Moved My RISK??? RISK??? Integrating Risk Efforts Between Systems Integrating Risk Efforts Between Systems Engineering & Project Management Engineering & Project Management Becky Reed/President & CEO Becky Reed/President & CEO Steve Waddell/Vice-President Steve Waddell/Vice-President Reed Integration, Inc. Reed Integration, Inc.

Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 1 Who Moved My RISK??? Integrating Risk Efforts Between Systems Engineering & Project

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Page 1: Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 1 Who Moved My RISK??? Integrating Risk Efforts Between Systems Engineering & Project

Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 1

Who Moved My RISK???Who Moved My RISK???

Integrating Risk Efforts Between Integrating Risk Efforts Between Systems Engineering & Project Systems Engineering & Project

ManagementManagementBecky Reed/President & CEO Becky Reed/President & CEO

Steve Waddell/Vice-PresidentSteve Waddell/Vice-President

Reed Integration, Inc.Reed Integration, Inc.

Page 2: Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 1 Who Moved My RISK??? Integrating Risk Efforts Between Systems Engineering & Project

Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 2

In theory all life is interconnected….

What are the weak and strong forces connecting the biosphere, geosphere, and atmosphere at regional to

continental scales?

Customer Vision for Project XCustomer Vision for Project X

Page 3: Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 1 Who Moved My RISK??? Integrating Risk Efforts Between Systems Engineering & Project

Page 3Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Project XProject X A continental-scale research instrument,A continental-scale research instrument, Geographically distributed infrastructure,Geographically distributed infrastructure, Networked state-of-the-art communications system, Networked state-of-the-art communications system, Cutting edge lab and field instrumentation,Cutting edge lab and field instrumentation, Site based experimental infrastructure,Site based experimental infrastructure, Natural history archive facilities,Natural history archive facilities, Computation, analytical, and modeling capability, Computation, analytical, and modeling capability, Wall-to-wall remote sensing coverage,Wall-to-wall remote sensing coverage, A linked computational network.A linked computational network.

Project X is a national research platform to provide fundamental knowledge about the biosphere and biospheric processes operating at regional to continental scales. Project X infrastructure will sense, measure, and forecast changes in the biosphere resulting from regional to continental scale climate and landuse change.

Page 4: Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 1 Who Moved My RISK??? Integrating Risk Efforts Between Systems Engineering & Project

Page 4Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

The RealityThe Reality

4

Multiple “pieces”…….

Data

ResearchersFacilities

Fixed Towers

Inst

rum

enta

tion

Cyberinfrastructure

Mobile/Relocateable Platforms

Airborne Observatory Project X Employees

Page 5: Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 1 Who Moved My RISK??? Integrating Risk Efforts Between Systems Engineering & Project

Page 5Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

…….to be integrated into one .to be integrated into one functional networkfunctional network

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Page 6Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Project X SE ApproachProject X SE Approach

Systems Engineering Planning

Systems Engineering Controls

Project X Systems Engineering Approach

Interface Definition & ControlTrade StudiesArchitecture Definition

Requirements Capture,Development, & Management

System Development & Analysis

TraceabilityRequirements Management Database

Integration &Verification

Testing, Demonstration, Analysis, InspectionConstruction, Installation, Certification

Risk ManagementConfiguration ManagementDesign Reviews

Delivery & Operations

Feedback of Test Data, Analysis Results Feedback of Test Data,

Analysis Results

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Page 7Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Requirements Analysis ApproachRequirements Analysis Approach

ORD.1 Intelligence Information System Source Requirements

Date:August 3, 1996

Author:System Engineer

Number: Name:

documents documents documents

incorporates incorporates incorporates incorporates

generates causes

constrained by

ORD.1

IntelligenceInformation SystemSource Require...

Document

OR.1

SpecificRequirements

OriginatingRequir...

OR.1.1

Accept Requests

OriginatingRequir...

I.1

Media of Requests

Issue

OR.1.2

Retain Inventory

OriginatingRequir...

OR.1.3

Control MultipleSensors

OriginatingRequir...

OR.1.4

Maximum Staff

OriginatingRequir...

R.1

Staffing Per Shift

Risk

OR.2

Continuous Support

OriginatingRequir...

SYS.1

IntelligenceInformation System

System

C.1

ContinuousOperation

ConstraintDate:

October 27, 1997Author:

System Engineer

Number:U.1

Name:Context (Root Function For Universe)

AND

C.1

Perform CustomerFunctions

0

Operate IntelligenceInformation System

C.2

Perform CollectorFunctions

AND

products requests

data

status

tasking

Date:August 4, 1996

Author:System Engineer

Number:C.0

Name:Universe

built from built from built from

C.0

Universe

External System

C.1

Customers

External System

C.2

Collectors

External System

SYS.1

IntelligenceInformation System

System

Architecture Domain

Requirements trace to behavior

Requirements trace to physical components

Function Assess Kill

Function Perform Intercept

Function Request Intercept

Function (With Exits) Discrimina

Function Threat Track

Function Detect & Initiate Track

Resource MIPS

0

5

0 10 20 30 40 50 57.0

Source Requirements Domain

V&V Domain

Behavior Domain

Behavior is allocated to physical components

verified by

verified by

verified by

Architecture

Analysis

Behavior Analysis

Design V & V

Source Requirements Analysis

CORECORERepositoryRepository

© 2006 Vitech Corporation. All rights reserved. Used with permission.

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Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 8

SustainabilitySustainability

Project X integrates science-based data

across the continental U.S.,

Alaska, and Hawaii to support research,

forecasting, and education for a minimum of 30

years

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Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved Page 9

Project X Risk Register 25-Apr-2007

Item Risk ID Risk Statements (If, then)

Source of Risk

Proba-

bility (1-5)

Impact (1-5)

Risk Factor (P X I)

Impact Time

Frame Risk Response Strategy Risk Owner Response Status

1

P-001 If the identification of a permanent project manager is delayed long term, then the project activities (scope, schedule, budget) could go off track due to lack of guidance.

Plan Updateprior to CDR

3 5 15 Jan-07 Candidate interviews in January 2007

D. Jones CLOSED: Feb 2007 - Project Manager hired and on board.

2

P-002 If the requirements are not clearly defined, reviewed and baselined, then design changes will be ongoing causing cost and schedule impacts.

Plan Update prior to CDR

2 4 8 Ongoing Sep. 2006: Science Requirements Doc. (SRD) was drafted and will be distributed for review with CDR documentation.

SE March 07: SRD baselined with system functional & performance requirements. Section 5.0 Science Reqts in development for PDR.

3

P-003 If Project X has to purchase or rent site property, project cost will increase.

Plan Update prior to CDR

3 4 12 2007 April 2007: Need to revisit budget allocation or determine other options

R. Shultz

RE-OPENED: April 2007: Funding not in budget. CLOSED: Oct. 2006 - Funding was added to budget to include leasing of site property.

Project X Risk Register ExcerptProject X Risk Register Excerpt

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Page 10Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

OverviewOverview

Project XProject X BiosBios SE and PM Roles and ResponsibilitiesSE and PM Roles and Responsibilities Risk Terminology and ProcessesRisk Terminology and Processes Risk Management Implementation & Risk Management Implementation &

IntegrationIntegration ConclusionConclusion Shameless PlugShameless Plug

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Page 11Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

• Reed Integration, Inc., Hampton Roads, VA President and CEO, Technical Solutions and TrainingCertified Systems Engineering Professional (CSEP), INCOSE

• INCOSE: •Member Board Representative – Region V 2007•Hampton Roads Chapter: President 2006, Vice-President 2005•Huntsville Chapter: President 2000-2003 (UAH SE Certificate Program)

• Peninsula Engineers Council (PEC): President May 2005 – May 2007

MORGAN Research Corporation, Huntsville, AL and Hampton Roads, VAProgram Development Manager, Science & Engineering ProgramsSystems Eng & Integration WBS Manager, ISS microgravity research

projectBWX Technologies, Inc., Lynchburg, VA & Livermore, CA

Systems Engineering Manager, Separator Engineering Group, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Lead Integration Engineer, medical isotope target manufacturing project Project Lead Systems Engineer, new technology nuclear programSystems Engineer, Accelerator and Magnet Systems Division

Boeing consultant/Computer Sciences Corporation, Huntsville, ALInformation Systems Engineer for MSFC Propulsion Lab; PrISMS contract

Grumman Aerospace Corporation, Huntsville, ALLead Systems Engineer, Space Station Freedom Program

Becky Reed, CSEPBecky Reed, CSEP

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Page 12Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Steve Waddell, MBA, PMPSteve Waddell, MBA, PMP©©

Reed Integration, Inc. Hampton Roads, VA Reed Integration, Inc. Hampton Roads, VA Vice President of Strategy for Reed Integration, Inc, Vice President of Strategy for Reed Integration, Inc, Technical Solutions and TrainingTechnical Solutions and Training

Certified Project Management Professional (PMPCertified Project Management Professional (PMP)) – Project Management – Project Management Institute (PMI)Institute (PMI)

Certified Competent Toastmaster (CTM) Certified Competent Toastmaster (CTM) – Toastmasters, International.– Toastmasters, International. PMIPMI, , ViceVice President, Special ProjectsPresident, Special Projects, , Hampton Roads Chapter 2003-2006Hampton Roads Chapter 2003-2006 HRA INCOSEHRA INCOSE, , President/Past PresidentPresident/Past President,, Hampton Roads Chapter 2001- Hampton Roads Chapter 2001-

2002 / 20032002 / 2003 ToastmastersToastmasters, Vice President - Marketing, , Vice President - Marketing, Peninsula Chapter 2003Peninsula Chapter 2003 Certified NASA Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Instructor Certified NASA Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Instructor

Northrop Grumman IT - Newport News, VANorthrop Grumman IT - Newport News, VA– – Senior Project ManagerSenior Project Manager

UC Irvin – Hawthorne, CA / Hampton Roads, VAUC Irvin – Hawthorne, CA / Hampton Roads, VA– – Lead Instructor, Project Management Certificate ProgramLead Instructor, Project Management Certificate Program

Naptheon – Newport News, VANaptheon – Newport News, VA– – Strategy and MarketingStrategy and Marketing

Florida Institute of Technology – Melbourne, FL / Hampton Roads VAFlorida Institute of Technology – Melbourne, FL / Hampton Roads VA– – Adjunct Professor, Graduate ProgramsAdjunct Professor, Graduate Programs

Newport News Shipbuilding – Newport News, VANewport News Shipbuilding – Newport News, VA– – Lead Systems Engineer / Risk Management Subject Matter Expert, Systems EngineeringLead Systems Engineer / Risk Management Subject Matter Expert, Systems Engineering

– – Shift Refueling Engineer, USS EnterpriseShift Refueling Engineer, USS Enterprise

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Page 13Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Systems Engineer and Project Systems Engineer and Project Manager Roles are DifferentManager Roles are Different

The Role of Systems Engineer is to:The Role of Systems Engineer is to: Represent the Project Manager in managing the project’s Represent the Project Manager in managing the project’s

technical effort.* E.G. -technical effort.* E.G. - Define, clarify, and document requirements; perform trade Define, clarify, and document requirements; perform trade

studies; recognize when interface impacts might occur, and studies; recognize when interface impacts might occur, and take early action to avoid problems.*take early action to avoid problems.*

The Role Project Manager is:The Role Project Manager is: The person assigned by the performing organization to The person assigned by the performing organization to

achieve the project objectives.** Primarily, achieve the project objectives.** Primarily, Deliver the Deliver the specifiedspecified quality of goods and quality of goods and

services, on schedule, within budget.services, on schedule, within budget.**PMBOK Guide 3rd Edition Glossary pg 369

Each of these roles has shared responsibilities

– The allocation of responsibilities depends upon the project

*INCOSE Sys Eng Handbook Ver 2.a

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Page 14Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Typical Division of ResponsibilitiesTypical Division of Responsibilities

Project Leadership Project Planning Schedule Management Cost Allocation & Management Acquires Resources Project Communication Quality Management Monitors Project Progress Holds Customer Status Meetings Status Reports (cost, etc.) Replans Project if Needed Risk Management Issue Management Customer Interface Lessons Learned Reward and Recognition

Plans Technical Management Effort Provides Input to Project Plan Defines, Manages Requirements Develops and Synthesizes System

Architecture Trade Studies Controls RM, CM Supports QA Defines and controls interfaces Technical Integration Provides Technical Status Requirements Traceability Matrix V&V Plan and Implementation Technical Risk Management Technical Lessons Learned Clean up after project management

The Systems Engineer = technical right arm of the PM!

Project Manager Systems Engineer

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Page 15Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Risk and Risk ManagementRisk and Risk Management What is Risk?What is Risk?

An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project’s has a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives. objectives. (A Guide to the PMBOK, 3(A Guide to the PMBOK, 3rdrd Ed) Ed)

““A measure of the uncertainty of attaining a A measure of the uncertainty of attaining a goal, objective, or requirement pertaining to goal, objective, or requirement pertaining to technical performance, cost, and schedule.” technical performance, cost, and schedule.” (INCOSE Handbook)(INCOSE Handbook)

What is Risk Management?What is Risk Management? Systematic method for identifying, assessing, Systematic method for identifying, assessing,

mitigating, and monitoring / controlling mitigating, and monitoring / controlling unplanned events that may impact a projectunplanned events that may impact a project

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Risk Terms and Roles: Risk Terms and Roles: SE PerspectiveSE Perspective

INCOSE Handbook:INCOSE Handbook: ““A measure of the uncertainty of A measure of the uncertainty of

attaining a goal, objective, or attaining a goal, objective, or requirement pertaining to technical requirement pertaining to technical performance, cost, and schedule.” performance, cost, and schedule.”

Technical focus for SETechnical focus for SE

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Risk Terms and Roles: Risk Terms and Roles: SE PerspectiveSE Perspective

INCOSE Handbook:INCOSE Handbook: Risk has two components –Risk has two components –

LikelihoodLikelihood that an undesirable event will that an undesirable event will

occuroccur Likelihood is often expressed as a Likelihood is often expressed as a probabilityprobability

ConsequenceConsequence of the event if it does occur. of the event if it does occur. Consequence is expressed in terms that depend Consequence is expressed in terms that depend

on the nature of the event (e.g., dollars, on the nature of the event (e.g., dollars, performance loss). performance loss).

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Risk Terms and Roles: Risk Terms and Roles: PMI PerspectivePMI Perspective

PMI includes negative and positive PMI includes negative and positive impactimpact Can you have a risk that has both?Can you have a risk that has both?

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Page 19Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Rumsfeld on Types of RiskRumsfeld on Types of Risk

What does he really mean?

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Performance Measurement Baseline Performance Measurement Baseline and Management Reserveand Management Reserve

Contract PriceContract Price

KnownEffort

ContractPrice Minus

Fee/Profit = BB Minus MR

= PMB

PerformanceMeasurement Baseline (PMB)

PerformanceMeasurement Baseline (PMB)

ManagementReserve

ManagementReserve

Target Profit / Fee

Target Profit / Fee

Budget Base (CBB)Budget Base (CBB)

Withheld For Risk &

Unknowns

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Page 21Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Risk vs ProblemRisk vs Problem

Problem: No uncertainty remains, risk has occurred and the consequences must be dealt with.

Risk: Not 100% certain trees will fall, may or may not happen, could choose to wait before taking any action depending upon budget priorities.

What is the difference between a risk and a problem?

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Page 22Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Risk Sources – Everyone Agrees!Risk Sources – Everyone Agrees!

TechnicalRisk

Cost RiskSchedule

Risk

Lim

ited

Fund

sTe

chni

cal P

robl

ems

Imposed Budgets

ThreatChanges

Com

pressed Schedules

Technical Problem

sDemand Schedules

Schedule Slips

ProgrammaticRisk

POLITIC

S!

PERSO

NNEL!

NEWREQUIREMENTS!

WEATHER!

FACILI

TIES

!

INCOSE SE Handbook v2a

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Balancing ActBalancing Act

“Developing the Aircraft Carrier Risk Management Process”, INCOSE Mid-Atlantic Regional Conference 1999, Waddell

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Page 24Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Technical Risk

Schedule Risk

Components of RiskComponents of Risk

Cost Risk

Schedule Risk

Cost Risk

Technical Risk

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Page 25Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

What is the Triple Constraint?What is the Triple Constraint?Project management involves competing demands between cost (including quality and risk), schedule, and performance. This is sometimes called the Triple Constraint, or Iron Triangle. The triple constraint is a framework for evaluating competing project demands.

Time/ Schedule

Cost/Resources

Scope/Quality/Performance

*PMBOK Guide 3rd Edition pg 8

It is shown as an equilateral triangle to illustrate that all three are in balance.

RII / ODU Fundamentals of Project Management Course

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Page 26Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Managing the Triple ConstraintManaging the Triple Constraint

Scope

Time

Initial Project Plan has these time, cost, and scope constraints.

During the course of the project, if you must decrease your project schedule, you may have to decrease scope also to get there.

Time

Or decrease scope.

Cost Cost

Scope

RII / ODU Fundamentals of Project Management Course

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Page 27Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

How do you know which How do you know which constraint to change?constraint to change?

You analyze the hierarchy of the constraints.

Identify: The “Driver” - Met at all costs.The “Middle Constraint” - Greater flexibility than “Driver”,

Less flexibility than Weak ConstraintThe “Weak Constraint” - Most Flexible

Time

Cost

Scope/Quality/Performance

RII / ODU Fundamentals of Project Management Course

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Page 28Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

PrioritizationPrioritizationEnsuring All Stakeholders Agree on PrioritizationDifferent stakeholders have different priorities, and typically, the sponsor is not the only major stakeholder. There can be key stakeholders both internal and external to the project. Therefore, it is up to the project manager to ensure all stakeholders have agreed to the pre-determined priority of the triple constraint components.

Ultimately, the sponsor is the one funding the project, and should therefore have the final say……

Cost Performance

Schedule

Driver (Fixed) Middle Constraint Weak Constraint

RII / ODU Fundamentals of Project Management Course

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Page 29Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

INCOSE Risk Management Process

1. PlanningEstablishment of the risk

management program plan and

assignment of responsibilities

2. Risk IdentificationAnticipation, recognition &

prioritization of potential

adverse outcomes and the

associated root causes

3. Risk AssessmentCharacterization of the

Magnitude and likelihood of

risks, to the depth warranted

4. Risk AnalysisEvaluation of costs and benefits

associated with available risk

mitigation options, if needed

5. Risk HandlingProgram intervention to reduce

or eliminate risks, if justified,

and tracking to assure success

ProgramManagement &

SystemsEngineering

Requirements, Functions& System Elements

Modifications to

program plan

1. PlanningEstablishment of the risk

management program plan and

assignment of responsibilities

2. Risk IdentificationAnticipation, recognition &

prioritization of potential

adverse outcomes and the

associated root causes

3. Risk AssessmentCharacterization of the

Magnitude and likelihood of

risks, to the depth warranted

4. Risk AnalysisEvaluation of costs and benefits

associated with available risk

mitigation options, if needed

5. Risk HandlingProgram intervention to reduce

or eliminate risks, if justified,

and tracking to assure success

ProgramManagement &

SystemsEngineering

Requirements, Functions& System Elements

Modifications to

program plan

INCOSE SE Handbookv2a Chapter 6

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Page 30Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Risk Management ProcessRisk Management Process

RiskIdentificatio

n

Qualitative Risk

Assessment

Risk Respons

e Planning

Risk Monitorin

g and Control

Quantitative Risk

Assessment

RiskManagement Planning

“A Lean Approach to Risk Management”, NASA PM Challenge, 2006 Waddell/Reed

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Page 31Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

PMI Assessment ProcessPMI Assessment Process

Probability and Impact Matrix

Threats Opportunities

Pro

bab

ility

.90 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.72 0.72 0.36 0.18 0.09 0.05

.70 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.28 0.56 0.56 0.28 0.14 0.07 0.04

.50 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.03

.30 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.02

.10 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.20 0.01 0.5

Impact 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.80 0.80 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.05

High – Major project disruption Medium – Moderate disruption

Low – Minimum Impact

KEY:

Medium – Moderate improvement

Low – Minimal Improvement

High – Major project improvement .18 - .72

.06 - .14

.01 - .05

.18 - .72

.06 - .14

.01 - .05

The Systems Engineer should also look for technical opportunities as well!

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Page 32Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

“A Lean Approach to Risk Management”, NASA PM Challenge, 2006 Waddell/Reed

INCOSE & PMI INCOSE & PMI Processes Are SimilarProcesses Are Similar

Qualitative Risk Assessment

Risk Response Planning

Risk Monitoring and Control

Quantitative Risk Assessment

RiskManagement Planning

Mitigate (neg) /

Enhance (opp)Risk

Transfer (neg) /Share (opp)

Risk

Accept (neg) /

Accept (opp)Risk

Avoid (neg) /Exploit (opp)

Risk

RiskIdentification

Risk Management

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Page 33Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Risk Response – INCOSERisk Response – INCOSE

Accept

Avoid

Transfer

• Risk is yours• Risk Exposure is low (acceptable)• Cost to absorb risk < cost to

mitigate / watch

• Do nothing now• Plan to absorb the risk

when it comes through a contingency reserve.

• Risk is yours• Risk Exposure is on the med.-high

side • Cost to mitigate or avoid < cost to

absorb risk

• Reduce the probability and/or impact by developing and executing a risk handling plan

• Monitor risks for change

• Risk is yours• Risk Exposure is med. or high• Cost to avoid < cost to absorb risk

• Change the project plan to eliminate the threat or relax the objective that is in jeopardy

• Risk is better handled by someone else.

• Responsibility, accountability & authority can be transferred to someone else

Allocate RAA to a 3rd party. Can involve the use of insurance, payment of a risk premium, etc.

Mitigate

Approach Select When

Actions Taken

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Page 34Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

Risk Response – INCOSERisk Response – INCOSE/PMI/PMI

Accept

• Risk is yours• Risk Exposure is low (acceptable)• Cost to absorb risk < cost to

mitigate / watch• Opportunity gained < cost to

exploit or enhance

• Do nothing now• Plan to absorb the risk when it

comes through a contingency reserve.

• Periodically monitor to determine if the opportunity occurred.

• Risk is yours• Risk Exposure is med. or high side • Cost to mitigate < cost to absorb

risk• Opportunity gained > cost to

exploit or enhance

• Reduce the probability and/or impact by developing and executing a risk handling plan

• Modify the “size” of the opportunity by increasing probability and/or positive impact

• Risk is yours• Risk Exposure is med. or high• Cost to avoid < cost to absorb risk• Opportunity gained > cost to

exploit or enhance

• Change the project plan to eliminate the threat or relax the objective that is in jeopardy

• Eliminate uncertainty to ensure the opportunity is realized

• Risk is better handled by someone else.

• Responsibility, accountability & authority (RAA) can be transferred to someone else

• Someone else can better manage the opportunity.

• Allocate RAA to a 3rd party. Can involve the use of insurance, payment of a risk premium, etc.

• Allocate RAA to a 3rd party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project.

Approach Select When

Actions Taken

Avoid / Exploit

Transfer/ Share

Mitigate

Enhance

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“A Lean Approach to Risk Management”, NASA PM Challenge, 2006 Waddell/Reed

Integrated Process ApproachIntegrated Process Approach

Lessons Learned

Issues Risks

Today’s Projects

Future Projects

Past Projects

TODAYIssue

Management

TOMORROW Risk Management

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

-George Santayana

YESTERDAY

Lessons Learned Management

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Page 36Copyright© Reed Integration, Inc. 2007, All Rights Reserved

SE Technical Risk Focus SE Technical Risk Focus During Architecture Trade StudiesDuring Architecture Trade Studies

Cost drivers

Trade spaceoptions

Trade spaceoptions

•Performance requirements •New technologies•Cost •Expansion and growth•Schedule

•Producibility•Reliability•Maintainability•Availability •Supportability

Iterate

CONOPS

STATEVECTOR

Schedule

Technical Drivers

NODEA

Communications Network

Architecture Alternatives

Risks

CONOPS

STATEVECTOR

NODEA

System interfaces

Risks

Budget

Trade Study Process

CompromisesCompromises

ArchitectureDesign

Schedule

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Interface Risk – Project XInterface Risk – Project X

Areas of Risk for the Systems Engineer to Consider:Internal – External Interfaces

Supplier A – Supplier BHardware - HardwareSoftware - SoftwareHardware - Software

Subsystem - Subsystem

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Role of Risk Management Within SERole of Risk Management Within SEConcept

Of Operations

Concept of Operations

Requirements & Architecture

PreliminaryDesign

Detail Design & Construction TestOperations& Support

System Requirements

System Architecture

SystemDesign

DetailDesign

Detailed Design& Construction

Unit Testing

Subsystem Verification

SystemIntegration

System Verification Acceptance Testing

System Validation /Operations

SADSAD

SDDSDD

CDRCDR

SRRSRR

PRRPRR

Risk Management is conducted throughout the entire life cycle.

SE Is Key for Technical Risks!!!!!!

Inte

gra

tion

, Rec

ompos

itio

n, an

d

Ver

ifica

tion

Decom

position and Definition

Systems Engineer Responsibility

Design Engineer ResponsibilitySystems Engineer Responsibility, Significant Developer Involvement

Systems Engineer Control Gate

Developer Control Gate

Systems Validation Plan

Systems Verification Plan

Unit Test Plan

Subsystem Verification Plan

CI Test Plan

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PMs Need to Understand PMs Need to Understand Their Systems EngineerTheir Systems Engineer

Risk Averse Risk SeekingRisk Neutral

Figure Taken From Chapter 11-Project Requirements: A Guide to Best Practices by Ralph R. Young, 2006

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ConclusionConclusion

PMI and INCOSE Risk Processes Very PMI and INCOSE Risk Processes Very SimilarSimilar

SE is the Lead for the Project’s Technical SE is the Lead for the Project’s Technical RiskRisk

PM Has Overall Responsibility for RiskPM Has Overall Responsibility for Risk Risk – Issues – Lessons Learned: Risk – Issues – Lessons Learned:

Integrated Approach = Greatest ValueIntegrated Approach = Greatest Value PMs Need to Understand Their Systems PMs Need to Understand Their Systems

Engineer and Vice-Versa!Engineer and Vice-Versa!

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Obligatory Obligatory Shameless PlugShameless Plug

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RII Offers:RII Offers: Complete set of risk management Complete set of risk management

services services Entire methodology implementationEntire methodology implementation Risk Identification and AnalysisRisk Identification and Analysis Mitigation strategy development and action Mitigation strategy development and action

planningplanning Risk tracking and monitoringRisk tracking and monitoring Training and WorkshopsTraining and Workshops

Comprehensive risk management Comprehensive risk management productsproducts

Risk Management Handbooks and Plans Tailored Risk Management Handbooks and Plans Tailored For Your Project / Program NeedsFor Your Project / Program Needs

Detailed Risk Process Audits / Findings ReportsDetailed Risk Process Audits / Findings Reports Risk Management Data Bases (i.e. RMDB and PM Risk Management Data Bases (i.e. RMDB and PM

Tool)Tool)

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Get the RII / ODU Advantage – Get the RII / ODU Advantage – Registration For Fall Courses is OPEN!!!Registration For Fall Courses is OPEN!!!

PMP© PreparationCSEP© Preparation PgMPSM Preparation

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The Old Dominion University Tri-Cities Higher Education Center is a full-service facility offering upper level undergraduate 300 and 400 level degree completion classes, graduate and certificate programs, admissions, registration, advising and other student services for residents of Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk and surrounding areas. Our new state-of-the-art-facility is scheduled to open for the fall, 2007 semester. The new center will be located at 1070 University Blvd., Portsmouth, VA just off College Drive (I-664, Exit 8B) in the new Mast Center Corporate Research Park.

Tri-Cities Higher Education CenterTri-Cities Higher Education Center

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And Remember……And Remember……

The early bird may get the worm, but The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the the second mouse gets the cheese……cheese……

Unless that mouse is a good systems engineer!!

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Contact InformationContact InformationBecky Reed, CSEPBecky Reed, CSEP

President/CEO, President/CEO, Reed Integration Inc.Reed Integration Inc.

[email protected]

Steve Waddell, MBA, PMPSteve Waddell, MBA, PMP©©

Vice President, Vice President, Reed Integration Inc.Reed Integration Inc.

[email protected]