Copyright (c) Sacha BERNARD · Response (ECR) or such as Category Management. Geomarketing is a operational marketing technique which is base on a cartographic representation and

Copyright (c) Sacha BERNARD

1 Sacha J.S.BERNARD Mémoire Responsable Marketing

SUMMARY I. Geomarketing 2

A. Definition 2 B. The purpose of geomarketing 4 C. The geomarketing tools: the geographic information system and geotypes 4 1. The GIS ( Geographic information system ) 2. The geotype II. The spatial market 5 A. The shopping area 5

1. Definition of the shopping area 2. Description of a shopping area 3. The different models of delimitation of a market area

B. Practical determination and analysis of the shopping area 15

1. Practical determination of a shopping area 2. Analysis of the shopping area 3. The expert analysis 4. Implementation strategies : for what aim ?

III. Conclusion 23 IV. Annexes 24 V. Bibliography 32 VI. Table of figures 34


INTRODUCTION If we had to rank the neologism the most trendy today in the world of the mass distribution, geomarketing is surely at the fist rank in front of the notions such as Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) or such as Category Management. Geomarketing is a operational marketing technique which is base on a cartographic representation and analysis, the aim of such technique is to study the economic activity territories, by crossing the local commercial data and socio-demographic or behaviourist data’s. Before 1975 supermarkets in France had known a strong expansion, after this date stagnation occurred. This situation can not be explained by a certain unwillingness of the consumer toward this mode of consumption. But by a certain saturation of the French market. Due to this situation it was necessary to precise all the observations city by city, quarter by quarter in order to have an efficient implementation. In this new situation the decision of implementing a new hypermarket became a crucial and a strategic decision for major groups such as Carrefour, Auchan, Leclerc…etc. It seemed interesting to develop the notion of geomarketing a key factor for business implementation, by giving explanations on how a market area was constructed in a theoretical and practical way. GEOMARKETING: The growth of the data system management, combined with the remarkable progress in the cartography, gives the possibility today to random a large amount of combined data’s in economy, geography a social aspects. This alliance gave birth at the end of the eighties, at a new approach: Geomarketing. A. DEFINITION “Tell me where you live, I will tell you who you are.” This slogan may be a little bit simplest . But resume quite correctly the geomarketing, a key tool for direct marketing and for customer relation management in the past twenty years. At the origin of this concept, a fundamental idea: the geographical location of people, plays an essential role in how business is conducted. If it is an evidence for mass distribution networks, it is also the case for other types of activities: prospects and future clients are generally a neighbour of an existing one. Yesterday, we could acknowledge the activity of the commercial representatives by the amount of multicolour pin heads or small flags spread on a map of France. This method was used for implementation indications of new shops, bank agencies or competitors. A tool of


simulation quite empirical. Nowadays we do it better with the help of IT giving us an automatic treatment, a cross analysis of the different sources of information. This is the purpose of the information system in geomarketing. Generally the applications of geomarketing are of tree orders. It gives a more efficient action in mail sending campaigns because the mail is send to the corresponding consumer profile and location. It precise also the territory management of the sale representatives : a delimitation of zones, a customer and prospects targeting, scheduling the sales objectives…etc

Figure 1

Figure 2

Finally, it helps to implement new sales outlets but also to estimate consumers choice for a product in a specific location. In other terms, if geomarketing is used to target marketing operations and to analyse sales, it gives also the possibility to visualise the zones of influence of a sale outlet or of a sale network. It is a tool who gives a synthesis with the help of cartographic reports which gives

Ancienneté dans l'utilisation du géomarketing

47%

34%19% Moins de 2 ans

De 2 à 5 ans

Plus de 5 ans

4134

20

5

Les services dans lesquels est utilisé le géomarketing

Gestioncommerciale

Pilotage réseaucommerciale

Pilotagestratégique

Logistique


results on a specific region, state or country. It also gives indication on the percentage of penetration, of how an infrastructure is deployed or the evolution of a customer care service. Giving information to customer is crucial in the marketing strategy of a company. The customer must know and localise the nearest sale outlet, to know the time it will take to go over there. Also in other cases some other types of customers would like to visualise the geographic implementation of a company, of its branches, offices, industrial outlets…etc. Some others would like to identify the zone of tv , radio or cell phone receptions. Geomarketing goes beyond. It gives the possibility to describe and to manage a radio reception, the occupancy of land, for urbanisation, the infrastructure network ( water, electricity, telephone, roads), the amount of vehicles ( taxis, trucks), the impact consequences of a source of pollution…etc. THE PUPOSE OF GEOMARKETING The technique of geomarketing gives to marketing managers and sales representative, criteria’s for a personal approach of the customer rather than a global one. A precious help, because today companies are seeking niche markets of consumers and less macro segments. THE TOOLS OF GEOMARKETING: THE GEOGRAPHIC INFOMATION SYSTEM AND GEOTYPES. ! The GIS ( Geographic Information System) The GIS gives a new way to comprehend the problems of territorial management . Today, GIS’s represent a market of more then 1 billion Euro on the French territory. The users of GIS spend every year more then hundred million Euros in consulting, software’s, material, and data’s, training and development. Normally, the information’s manipulated every week in the world of management, of production or of services can be associated to a precise localisation: an address, a postal code, geographical data’s, a city name or a country …etc. The GIS software’s are able to manage, present and random all these information’s in conformity with there geographical specificity’s. These information are the geographic objects, geo referenced data, geocodes and images. Geographic objects are polygons who define the territorial limits or impact zones, polylines represents the road networks, telecom or electric networks, other points symbolise antennas, outlets, agencies …etc. Geo referenced data’s or associated to geographic objects, gather sociological economical data’s with the information’s such as regions, states, statistical information such as traffic information combined with the road network in consideration for example. Geocoded data’s are not associated to geographic data’s but to a position. It is the case for an address, a street or a postal code. These data’s are given under the form of a file of client geocoded to an address or of a file of prospects geocoded to the postal code. Finally an image gives the font of the plans which gives complementary visual information (I.G.N maps or MICHELIN maps) The goal is to propose a global solution to the marketing executives or representatives. Companies such as ESRI, ADDE have developed software’s for geomarketing use. According to an American study of DARATECH (geomarketing experts), the market of the GIS has represented 845 million dollars in 1999. This market as increased of 12.8% in 2001.The study based on the annual turnover puts ESRI first of the software’s editors with more than 35% of the market shares (estimated to 300 million dollars). The editor of


REDLANDS has its close competitor INTERGRAPH who takes the second march of the podium with 240 million dollars (28%). A huge gap separates the two leaders of the other competitors: MAPINFO reaches 6%, AUTODESK 5%, SMALLWORLD 4%, LOGICA and GEOGRAPHICS reach 3 % commonly. A grid precise the strength of the Windows solutions (69% of the global revenue) INTERGRAPH takes the head with 36 %.

Figure 3

2. GEOTYPES It’s the heart of the technique, consisting in a characterisation of the geographic zones with a certain number of criteria’s; revenue of the households, the number of children (domestic animals) per homes, social categories, etc… II) THE SPATIAL MARKET One of the essential characteristics of mass distribution now a day is to adapt a rigorous marketing method. Implementation, the survey, of a sale has to involve a study of the shopping area under the rules of a market study. A) THE SHOPPING AREA A number of researches have been made on the fundamentals of business localisation. It is necessary to determine the optimal implementation of a business infrastructure of a town, of a region, etc…By involving theory conditions of frequency of shops.

BASES DE DONNEES

Système de gestion de bases de données relationnelles

Analyse de données

Logiciel de cartographie

Etudes

Tableur Tableau de

bord

• Base clients • Base socio-démographique comportementale • Base concurrents • Base points de ventes : agences


1. DEFINITION OF A SHOPPING AREA. a) Definition The shopping zone is the geographic area surrounding the outlet. It is made of the influential zone where most of the potential customers come. The consumer is influenced by different parameters: ! The influence of the type of business.

Small outlets, corner shops, have a restricted shopping area but relatively stable (Bakers, butchers, etc…) Other types of small outlets or corner shops maybe larger in superficies. In this case, their range is wider and has more potential clients. Small outlets or corner shops customers are normally considered as focused customers. ! The influence of access points. The shopping area is realised under the forma of a map. We distinguish isochronic curves indicating the elapse time needed to go to a outlet (by foot or by car), the isometric curves are drawn at equal distance around the outlet. ! We define 3 zones : The preliminary or of proximity zone, the nearest of the shop. The secondary zone. The tertiary zone or neighbouring, it’s the most distant zone. We can then cut each zone by using the demographic, economic or business (state of the competitors) data’s. We get then homogenous sectors which will be studied in terms of customer’s behaviours: ! The influence of the close access. The proximity of a railway station of a highway, of parking are positive factors. On the contrary the existence of traffic lights, of difficult path ways, doesn’t encourage the customer. ! The influence of attraction points. We can distinguish the social attraction which is constituted of schools, public administrations, offices, etc…and the business attraction that includes competitor’s outlets. They attract a certain amount of the population that are eventual buyers. b) theory of localisation “Consumers always seeks to buy what they desire in a small distance way.” A shop or a business must count on their immediate customers rather then distant ones. We can say if we determine an ideal zone where customers had homogenous moves, than the best localisation would be at the centre of the geographic zone. But this situation is a utopia. There exists a reality, a natural limit concerning the frequentation of a shop or business, determine by the strength of desire to get goods and the cost of going over there. The cost integrates the time to go over there, the price of transports, how hard is it to get over there, etc. To this fact, the frequentation area is reduced to a radius not globally. We can then represent the shops of the same types and of same importance, of a shopping area of the same form and dimension. However, we can see free space between the circles.


Figure 4

All consumers of a market must be served, the circles are going to get on top of each other

and each businessman will be in competition to attract customers living in the regrouped

zones. These areas are described by hexagons.

Figure 5

Figure 6

Free space

R

R

R

Competing Zone


In the hypothetical case of a new implementation of new shops, the process of spatial competitiveness is accelerated: the shops are closer and closer, the circle markets are more and more covered up on each other, creating smaller hexagonal areas. We come up than with an ordered localisation of this business equipment’s that is based on size of the market area. Each shopping centres of an average level are found in the middle of the triangle, formed by tree central and superior level and its area of hexagonal market, giving birth to a new network of an inferior level, etc.

Figure 7

c) Critic on the theory of localisation: A lot of critics have been made concerning this geometric construction of the market areas, We can add to this the principles to a rationalised economy of the consumer, who wants to put costs down. Actually in real life these questions of a homogenous behaviour of customers, of strict equivalence to shops, of the repartition of the population, who seems quite a utopia. We can see tree real elements on determine the frequentation of a business implementation.

Level : High Middle Low


1) The accessibility The access of a shop is not constant, which is easier in term of frequentation for a certain shops rather then others. Accessibility is expressed in kilometres or in time, but this data isn’t the same in every shops. It occurs that the degree of space for parking in front of the shop, the possibility for the drivers to have better parking space or a stop of a public transport can emphasis or not the frequentation of a shop, to increase or reduce the shopping area. We can also notify the fact that in survey concerning tired consumers, who would be more incline to go to a further shopping centre but with a better circulation rather then a closer shop with traffic jam. 2) The attractiveness Shops whom are different in there attractiveness matter to attract consumers, they have build strong and seducing offers to their customers. The shop owner has different means: ! A longer and wider range of products. ! Different quality ! Cheap ! Strong promotion ! Publicity ! Service, welcome, friendly attitude, etc. The shop owner by this way enhances the desire of some of his customers, changing the configuration of the area. The size of the sale outlet can create a sort of distortion in the shopping area: a department store, for example, will attract other customers of other shops of the same type only if this one offers a greater variety of choice than the others, due to its wider space to sell. 2) The consumer. Each customer, due to their economic, social and psychological differences does not wait anything from a shop. In this sub paragraph reveal the partial characters of the consumer behaviourism when this one only knows the cost of consumption. We can analyse that from the surveys, when we ask to the client what are the principle inconvenience when buying goods, it’s that he puts on priority the transportation time. In fact, the evolution of the transportation cost is normally subjective and frequently erroneous. To take into consideration this criteria to build up the area zone of a shopping centre it’s not essential. The criteria are complex: ! A taste for changing ! A sensibility to ads ! Seeking new ideas ! Loyalty to the brand


Also we mustn’t forget the effects of the social structure or economic conditions (for consumers for example: poor people have less mobility, they generally go for their corner shop, but they wouldn’t mind if they could find as close but cheaper shop.) Distance is one of the elements helping to comprehend the human behaviour. The human behaviour is generally stimulated by the attitude of the “less I do the better it is”, ideas commented by Zipf, George Kinsley. This theory puts forward the idea of distance crucial factor of attraction but also the fact of accessibility measured in time and with access facilities. The consumer will seek for a minimum of effort and maximise the utility factor or the satisfaction factor. 2.DESCRIPTION OF THE SHOPPING AREA a) Description 1) Composition of shopping area This area is composed of tree zones, defined by percentage of attraction on customers. The primary zone: 60 – 80 % of the customers of a shop. It ties directly the shop and has the strongest density of clients. Rare are the cases where there is à monopolistic situation on the area ; generally ,there is the existence of area crossing totally or partially . The secondary zone: Contains 15 % to 25 % of the additional clients per shops. This clientele appears more dispersed than the primary zone. The corner shops like the bakeries attract less clients of this zone. The neighbouring zone: Gives the left over clients, dispersed in a huge region. Figure 8

This zone changes relatively to the existing competitors. If two shops of the same activity sector and of the same length are in competition and if one of them increases the dynamic of its brand image, this shop will have a market area twice or tree times larger than the second.

1 – Primary Zone 2-Secondary Zone 3- Neighbouring Zone 4 –Density of customer of the shop

Zone 3 Zone 2

Zone 1


If two shops are implemented next to each other, the size of the market area will be increased but the clients are attracted by a bigger choice of products or the possibility to bulk buy their goods in one go. The existence of other cases where the size of the shopping area depends on competitors, but we mustn’t forget that it depends also of the size of the shop. 3) The format of the shopping area The principal factor explaining the format of a market area of a shop is the geography of specified zone. 3 THE DIFFERENT MODELS OF DELIMITATION OF A MARKET AREA Certain models can give us the possibility to determine rapidly the zone of a shopping area of a specific outlet. They are tools that are useful for a first approach of the problem of a business localisation during implementation decision. Actually, these methods are used for the first phase of the localisation study, the idea is to draw a draft of the market area for example, the utility is to consider the use of such implementation rather then an other one. They are divided in tree groups: a) The models based on the buying moves These models take the idea of the theoreticians of localisation such as CHRISTALLER, the idea is to know that the consumer has a frequency to go to the closest shop under the condition that this shop provides choice and services required. On this basis, the market area can be estimated by defining the zone containing all consumers for which the shop represents the nearest possibility for supplying. The distance becomes then a crucial element to take into consideration. To calculate the attraction of a shop or a city, we have two tools taking into consideration the time taken on the way to the outlet and the other competitors that are on the way or in the sector and providing the same products. ! The REILLY theory in 1931 ! The CONVERSE Theory in 1949 The REILLY theory is based on two hypothesis: The two of competitiveness are equally accessible by the consumer, it’s a homogenous circulation. The shop owners whom are implanted in those two centres are also efficient. This theory says that “two centres of shopping areas attract buyers of a population situated between those areas. This is due to the total number of inhabitants of the considered centres, and due to the inverse function of the square number of the distance necessary to make to go over there” The formula:

2

*

=

DaDb

PbPa

VbVa


Details: Va = the part of the business of the intermediary city attracted by the town A Vb = the part of the business of the intermediary city attracted by the town B Da = distance to the intermediary city to the town A Db = distance to the intermediary city to the town B Pa = Population of the town A Pb = Population of the town B ²= average exponent estimated experimentally by REILLY between 1.5 and 2.5. Example: The urban zone A attracts the buyers of the intermediary city with a attraction force of 1.1 more then the attraction of the urban zone of B. This theory was used to give an estimation of the areas on the inter-metropolitan market of the shopping centres or intermediary cities in the USA. This theory is used when other sources of information’s are not available or too expensive. The CONVERSE theory, CONVERSE takes back the REILLY theory in 1949 and modifies it slightly. The aim is to calculate the standstill of the attraction of a town : the place from where the town doesn’t attract any more. With, Pma = distance measured from A , putting the limit of influence of A Dab = Distance between A and B Pa = Population from town A Pb = Population from town B

1.12

3545*

6000040000

=

=

VbVa

VbVa 10.1=

In termediate Ci ty

45 Km 35 Km

City A 40000 hab City B

60000 hab

PaPb

Dab

+1


Example: Later on, when using this tool in market studies, specialists changed the nature of the two variables of the CONVERSE theory by keeping the same formulation. The evaluation of the selling areas changes the number of the population, whereas the time to travel is substituted to distance. The interest of CONVERSE theory is to give a quick idea of the business flux in a particular geographic zone, without the need of a enquiry that could only give results to verify the previsions. b) The models of utility bases on the past behaviourism of the consumer. A certain number of researchers have been conducted to take into consideration criteria’s such as distance and have proposed to hold the functions such as consumer’s utility, functions including factors such as localisation and factors of preferences. They suppose that consumers have a choice between different buying possibilities, on the basis of a evaluation of the offered utility by each shops and not only on the localisation criteria. D.HUFF (1962) has suggested using an approach said of “preferences revealed”. He starts from the idea that utility of a shop depends on the size and the distance to access it, and recognise that consumers can go to a shop in a particular geographic zone. This factor made him estimate the probability to go in a particular shop is equal to the utility value of this shop brought back to the total sum the shops in use considered like effective by the consumer. It’s written: With: Pij = probability that a consumer i goes to a shop j N = the number of shops considered in the zone Vij = the utility of a shop i for a consumer j HUFF defines the utility of a shop by considering the distance and the attraction of a shop; with this formula:

65.9 km A B

Limit influence point

75000 habitants

20000 habitants

100 kilometres

9.65

75000200001

100=

+=Pma

∑ =

=nk Vik

VijPij

1

βαijjij DSV *=


Sj = measure the attraction of a shop Dij = the distance separating j of the consumer i Alpha and Beta = parameters of sensibility of the consumer, according to attraction and distance. The HUFF theory: Other authors have introduced supplementary variables : for example, the evolution of the image perceived of the shops or by descriptive variables of shops ( time tables , etc.) transports conditions ( costs and security) increasing the performances of the model. B) The limits of the HUFF model. The HUFF model has a limit. Actually he has shown that the perception of the consumers is a phenomena multidimensional, the distance and the size are not always essential factors. The image, forgotten by the HUFF model depends of the perceptions of the consumers on the price level, the social class orientation as well, etc. From this emerged a more general model the MCI model (The multiplicative competitive interaction model) d) The MCI model In 1974, NAKANISHI and COOPER have proposed the MCI model (The multiplicative competitive interaction model) by using the methods of the linear basis of the HUFF model, giving an advantage to simplify the estimation of the perimeters of a linear regression. They have emphasis the concept of attraction of a shop by putting supplementary variables to the HUFF model. The use given by the shop is expressed by variables considered as essential for the consumer (image measure, appearances, price levels, publicity, number of employees, etc.) e) Models of utility based on the direct evolution of behaviours. Its a recent approach of business localisation. The technique consists in using the evaluations made by consumers, directly from hypothetical shop descriptions, in order to calibrate the variables of the utility function. The researchers have observed the real sensibility of the consumer to different possible attributes of a shop and by determining his preferences. This approach needs a costly enquiry. B PRACTICAL DETERMINATION AND ANALYSIS OF A SHOPPING ZONE

∑=

−

−

= n

kkjkj

ijjij

DS

DSP

1*

*

βα

βαα


1) PRACTICAL DETERMINATION OF A SHOPPING AREA a) Determination based on the marking of a shop customer. There are deferent methods of marking off customers, but can only be used if the shop has 2-3 years of activity and has regular customers. We can first of all have the addresses of customers for shops that are not alimentary shops from client’s accounts, from sales notes or delivery bonds. For the shops that are alimentary who don’t give any receipt, it will be namely coupons field in by the customers to play a promotional game. We have also the possibility to use the addresses of the checks. However: We can not have the real samples represented by the shops customers because they reinforce sometimes other segmentation customers: for example, the clients account exclude those who pay cash and on time. The only information’s collected, are only the addresses and nothing else. Following the advice’s of W.APPLEBAUM maybe suitable and also to do enquiry in front of shops in order to build up samples representative of the customers, but also to provide better information’s: social characteristics, buying behaviours etc. To realise an enquiry regrouping a representative sample of the customers, it is necessary to do a selection of days and times corresponding to the shops turnover: generally a normal week day is the basis (without vacations, without promotions, etc.) The number of clients interviewed during this period depends on the cost decided to be engaged in this specific enquiry. It is estimated that the number the most efficient is between 600 and 1000 persons during the weekly query. (a survey = X% of the turnover) It is necessary to interview the clients with a stroke of luck by intervals. How to mark the addresses of the shopping area? When the addresses are collected, they are marked on a detailed map where different zones are circled around the shop, distance 500 m, 1000 m etc. The market area can be divided into 4 zones (north east, north west, south east, south west), making it more precise to locate a customer in the different zones of the shopping area and also to see if the shop is accessible from each zones. It is necessary to group the marks by zones in order to do a classic repartition between primary zones, secondary and neighbouring zones.


Plan:

Figure 9

b) Determination made with distance measures or during customers journeys. This method consist in picking up distant concentric zones from the shop , in order to measure the metric distance or the time distance . Isochronic curves are needed, circling the shop, with curves of 5, 10, 15, 20 minutes. This timing is made realistically by using a car, by driving at an average speed and with average traffic conditions. However: The consumers anticipate the timing concerning his journey to the shop. Difficult as well to define the maximum time that the consumers are ready to put when coming to the shop. The attraction power of each zones is evaluated with the surveys made, aiming to know what are the habits of consumption of the concerned population. c) The determination made by privileged observers. This method was settled up by A.PIATIER in 1955 to know the market areas of a city, in order to know the attraction made by the city to rural zones. It consists in collecting, via the postage, the information’s concerning buying frequencies of the inhabitants. This process has the advantage to be cost less, but it is long to random and the answers via the postal enquiry is not that good (the returns are only of 20 %) 3 stages: The questionnaire

For each city, 3 types of information’s are collected: Means of communication and business equipment. The inhabitants buying relations (where and what do they buy?) The sale relations with other zones. Counting of the questionnaires

- Customers

Residential

- Shop

North West East South


The idea is to give for each answer a number of points, in order to put into specs, showing the importance of the business relations of each region with the economic environment. Modification of the method to have an appreciation of the outlet attraction in rural areas. To give a segmentation of the buying behaviours and the different rhythms of frequencies, we don’t keep 3 types of possibilities but 12 covering the entire attraction frequency of an outlet in rural regions. The system of balance derived from the norms defined by PIATIER have been adapted for each level of frequencies or indemnity The code is quite realistic: if a lot of inhabitants of a village are going each day to buy in a hypermarket, it not too much to say that the attraction of this outlet on this village is close to 100%. However this analysis gives a good overview of the shopping areas but without giving the market evolutions. d) The determination made on the micro analysis It’s a method given by the CECOD (centre d’étude du commerce et de documentation) with the analysis of the rate of R.NELSON. It is called budgetary coefficient method. This method consists in collecting a complete information of buying attitudes, realised by a panel of a representative population. The expenses are allocated, by business expenses items; in percentage per regions (the total of the expenses per items must be equal to 100%) These elements are then random by the computer, editing synthetic coefficients per resident’s area and per products, concerning the buying made in the regions studied, the computer gives a visualisation of all buying results of this specific region. We then have a global view of the attraction of a city in percentage of all expenses and of course of the escape expenses. Then the last step is to convert these data’s in Euros. 2) THE ANALISIS OF THE SHOPPING AREA a) The demographic analysis of a shopping area. 1) The actual population For a first estimate, it is necessary to consult the last population census in city halls or at the regional head office of the INSEE. The idea is to use circular type of poll, a grid is also used for the specific area on the INSEE map scale 1/100 and the total population area has a repartition with a pro rata of they superficies. The information collected: ! The number of people in residence in the specific zone ! The number of families ! The number of working people ! The social aspect ! The age ! The quality and age of the housing 2) The future population


It is a difficult task , either it can conduct to under estimate the population, meaning the saturation of the outlet, or either underestimation , there is not enough cash flow. INSEE does indicative projections of the population at the level of the big economic regions of France, by a repercussion of all the tendencies observed on the population. b) Economic Analysis of the shopping zone 1) The global methods In order to define the global market theory for a type of product in a shopping area, two approaches are possible: By the resources Separating the active urbane population and the active rural population. Afterwards the active population of the shopping area is sub divided in social category. Then is kept the annual amounts of the salaries paid. It is multiplied by the amount of active census population in the specific shopping area. By giving the total revenues of the different social classes, we finally have the exact gross salary for the zone. Finally by using the budgetary coefficient published by the INSEE, giving us the mass of resources allocated to consumption, it is possible to determine the expected turnover for the zone concerning a specific product or an all range of products. By expenses: The process its, the number of families in the zone. Then must be found the regions of allocations expenses. By multiplying these average amounts by the number family’s censuses, we will find the global amount expected for the expenses of the families. This spec must be closely related to the potential turnover of the previous results of the zone. 2) The analytical method The wealth indicator It is the global amount of the resources allocated for buying goods and services of all sort. To each population zone in France is affected, after the study of PROSCOP, a wealth indicator. The wealth indicator (R/P) correspond to 1 for all the national territory, for a city of 35 000 inhabitants (P=35) if the wealth indicator is superior to 20% to the national rate (R/P = 1.2), the effective wealth is R = 35 x 1.2 = 42. The city has the wealth of a city of 42 000 inhabitants. The indicator of business disparity (IBD) IBD are presented under the figures of correcting coefficients giving a certain balance at local level, the national data’s. IBD of 110 (or 85 %) signify that the population consume 10 % more (or 15 % less) then the national level. Example: to calculate the expenses for business matters for a bakery of a town X: ! Number of families in X = 10 300 ! Expenses per family for the bakery = 2372.7 ! IBD of the bakery = 92.00


The potential expenses for business matters in the zone of the bakery of town X will be of: 2372.7 x10 300x (92/100) = 22 483 705.20 FRF c) The determination of the turn over of a business 1) Evaluation of the turnover of the competitors. The idea is to: Give a situation of the competitors; evaluate the superficies and turnover by using a professional indicator such as the turnover per square meters and per year, and the turnover per employees. Using a grid of market network distribution repartition. To do market study ad hoc giving all rates and indicators on the consumers behaviours. 2) How to calculate the potential turnover. The potential demand of a zone processed by the locale population corrected by the attraction of the other cities as well as the buying power and the local consumer behaviours, the potential turnover is equal to: potential zone demand – competitor’s turnover. 3) THE EXPERT METHOD TO GO DEEPER IN THE ANALYSIS. We can say that in the previous parts, the methods were relatively not precise. In this last part we are going to analyse how an expert in the geomarketing field analyse the criteria’s of decisions. It seemed to me interesting to notify the principal divergence between the MCI (Multiplicative Competitive Interaction) theory and the “expert “system. a) The “expert” system. This methodology consists in reproducing the knowledge of a Marketing manager when he evaluates the potentialities of a new information, this method is essentially based on the working experiences and intuitions of the professionals , these techniques are generally quite relevant. The system is composed of two parts: ! The knowledge called facts information’s. It’s a description of the situation and of its

problem (the number of competitors, the number of potential consumers, etc.) ! The knowledge called ruled information’s. These rules translate the expert’s knowledge,

indicating what the consequences to extract from facts are. (Example: if the numbers of potential consumers of the zone are inferior to X, there is no need to implement the outlet.)

1) The reasoning of the expert in terms of implementation. In a first period, the expert verifies that this implementation answers correctly to a certain number of criteria’s that are threshold:

• The size of the city where will be the outlet must be less then a 100 000 inhabitants. • The ground surface for the implementation must be at least of 100 000 square

meters • The distance for the implementation site to the city mustn’t exceed 10 minutes.


• The business density mustn’t exceed 260 square meters of unspecialised business outlets (a saturated zone must be excluded).

In a second phase if the implementation zone hasn’t been rejected after this first analysis of the “Expert”, it is possible to continue with measurements of the business density zone of the shopping area.

• The shopping area is restricted by the entire marking situated in less then 25 minutes

from the outlet. The zone is cut in units. One geographic unit can be a group of blocks or of small residential zone near the city. These units must be homogenous in terms of distance and characteristics (urban criteria for example).

• For each of these units, the expert measures the business density. The determination of the density is quit simple, you divide the number of square meters of the selling surface on a specific zone and then you divide it by the number of inhabitants.

In order to do this operation it is necessary to realise two preliminary steps: It is necessary to enter the number of square meters of the outlet and to affect them to each unity. The “expert” bases his analysis essentially on the measures of the distance separating the outlets from the unity. For the supermarket, the “expert” estimate’s that the attraction has a limit to an equivalent perimeter of roughly 12 minutes around him. However, it is important to specify that a number of units can be attracted by the same outlet. In this case the evaluation of the business density is different, the expert doesn’t allocate to each unity the totality of the square meters of the shop surface but only a fraction estimated by the number of inhabitants in the unity.

• For the hypermarkets, the rules of affectations of the square meters is the same , but it is more complicated due to the fact of taking into consideration the attraction power of the hypermarkets as the units are distant. The “expert” will affect a bigger coefficient as distance is longer (if the distance is inferior to 12 minutes the coefficient is equal to 1, between 12 and 20 minutes the coefficient is 1.7, end finally the distance is superior to 20 minutes the coefficient will be of 0.5).

When the estimation is made, the business density is the ratio between the numbers of square meters by the number of consumers of the unity.

• From this business density, the expert affects an opportunity coefficient for his outlet. The idea is to take into consideration a specific business density, corresponding to a level of saturation in terms of business equipment, in order to have strongest implementation opportunity for a new outlet. • It must also take into consideration of other coefficient, named coefficient of

penetration, estimated by the distance of each unity of the outlet and also of the characteristics of this one. This coefficient reveals the competitive power of the brand.

• Only two equations are needed to estimate the alimentary turn over of the outlet for each unit.

The potential market of the unity = Alimentary expenses per inhabitants x Number of inhabitants in the unit x 0.95 (coefficient corresponding to a percentage of alimentary expenses that are marketable in the mass distribution)


Alimentary Turnover of the unity = Potential market of the unity x coefficient of penetration x coefficient of opportunities 2) Comparison between the MCI and “expert” system. We have to consider the methodological differences. The MCI is a mathematical model, rigid data’s for the turnover, etc. No lace is left for business intuition or for experience. The “expert” model is less rigorous. It’s the reflect of intuition, of experience, also this system depends on the only human expertise the results can be erroneous. The second difference is the reasoning concept. The MCI takes into consideration the individual by extrapolation to generate the global turnover. The “expert” system takes the beginning data’s, the total expenses of the shopping area and allocate afterwards an estimate potential market. It is interesting to use those two systems that are complementary. 4) IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES: FOR WHAT AIM? We saw in the first part how the market studies for the implementation of an outlet, define the shopping area. However different criteria’s that have been seen are quite insufficient to decide to open the outlet. Actually for an example, the demographic factors do not always have the characters of permanency and continuity. Your mustn’t take out these market studies that are essential for taking decisions. a) The implementation strategy It is essential to know if that the final decision is strategic and that there are laws regulating business implementation in France.

1) The different strategies. a) Taking the decision

The decision of implementing a business outlet is always strategic. We can regroup the strategic options towards an implementation in four groups:

• The abandonment The results of the study are not good in the short term neither in the long term. The businessman has a better interest in selling his plot of land.

• The attack The conclusions of the study do not conduct to enthusiasm but the business man wants however difficult the situation is, take a chance. By implementing an aggressive business policy, in order to increase the influence rates towards consumers. The aim is to wait for an acceptable profitability for the outlet.

• The temporisation The profitability is insufficient in a short time delay for the project; the investment is reported for a couple of years, in order to wait for a demographic boom. Sometimes it is strategic for major groups to buy lands in advance and do a portfolio of future sites. It blocs the competitors in the targeted shopping area, and gives guaranties for a potential expansion.

• The defence


The market evaluation in theory intends normally the shops superficies; it happens that the investment goes over budgeted. The aim is to impeach the competitors to implant their outlets on the shopping area, by saturating the offer. b) Strategies of implementation The choice of implementation of an outlet is the result of a strategic conquest of a territory, well defined.

1) The strategy of the fortified town This strategy consists in investing in crucial locations in a city to have a quasi monopoly. Was generally practice due to the existence of the registered office. Example: Lille with Auchan Clermont Ferrand for the Economats du Centre Sainte Etienne for Casino

2) The strategy of the “ grande muraille” This strategy is to target the neighbourhoods of the cities. A good example in the suburbs of Paris , all the big hypermarkets and malls have settled up their outlets, all a long of the peripheral boulevard. When Euromarché wad bought up by Carrefour, it gave the impression for the inhabitants of Paris that the city was under siege, this effect was quickly disrupted by Auchan.

3) the strategy of the citadel This is the case for an outlet that impresses by its superficies or its results, impresses also the suppliers and competitors. Example: The hypermarket Auchan in Velizy, (in the close suburb of Paris) with a global turnover of 2 billion francs.

4) The strategy of watching It’s the place to be, first of all because it is profitable but also this site mustn’t be left to the competitors. It is always the case for new malls. Example : An out number of brands have proposed to be candidate for Euralille. 5) The strategy of the “Barbacane” The prestige implementation use full for the brand image . Example : Yves Rocher on the Champs Elysées 6)The parasite and vaccination strategy The parasite strategy consists in implementing an outlet next to an other one who as a good customer flux. The strategy of vaccination responds to the parasite strategy, by diminishing the sale surface, or to implement an other store from the same company, etc.


III CONCLUSION First of all geomarketing is a new technique, 81% of the users are using this method for the 5 past years. (Source Geoxpand / Marketing Direct 1999). The aim for the marketers is to define the more precisely as possible the geographic area held by the outlet. At the term of the analysis they conclude by an evaluation of the potential economic environment of the outlet, the potential turn over, the rate of attractiveness, etc. Geomarketing is the heart of the strategy of implementation due to the diminution of the available plots of implementation in France, the French legislation (annexe 2) freezing the new possible implementations of major outlets such as hypermarkets; This position has generated a policy of buyback (Docks de France and Auchan) and fusion (Carrefour and Promodès) giving the possibility to enlarge they implementations. This theme made me comprehend the advantages of geomarketing and how it worked, in particular the utilisation and definition of a market area, building the shopping area of an outlet. We can also put in front the difficulties to implement an outlet such as a hypermarket; it is difficult to see clear between the mathematical theory and the expert advice, experience and feeling. It is also interesting to understand that an implementation is a specific a strategy. Actually the brand or company can choose, out of the economic consideration, for example to be against a competitor or have an outlet to serve as a technologic mirror, etc. We can see also the fact that geomarketing companies have installed new sales policies, by proposing a package including the software’s, with cartographic specs, managing data bases, etc. Nowadays there is a real willingness from the companies that are editing these software’s to democratise these geomarketing solutions. (Annexe: Article on Geomarketing from Management June 2001)


IV Annexes

UN PEU D’HISTOIRE CONCERNANT L’HYPERMARCHE

Dès le milieu du XIXème siècle, le commerce se transforme. L’industrialisation

entraîne l’afflux de population vers les villes. Cette évolution a favorisé la production de

masse des produits. La distribution peut être définie comme « l’ensemble des opérations par

lesquelles un bien sortant de l’appareil de production est mis à la disposition du

consommateur ou de l’utilisateur » (P.L. Dubois et A. Jolibert, Le marketing. Fondements et

pratique).

La plupart des concepts importants de la distribution moderne ont pour origine de grands

précurseurs :

• Aristide Baucicaut (France 1810 – 1877)

Il est l’inventeur de la formule du grand magasin en 1852. Il achète, cette année-là, avec

Justin Videau, propriétaire d’un magasin de textile, une boutique de nouveautés dotée

uniquement de quatre rayons de tissus, le « Bon Marché ». Progressivement, il rachète les

magasins voisins pour se développer et fait construire, en 1969, le bâtiment qui correspond à

la structure actuelle.

Pour Aristide Baucicaut, les grands principes de la formule du grand magasin étaient :

" La réduction de la marge brute à 13.5% (celle des commerçants de l’époque était de

40%). Son idée était de se rattraper sur les volumes des ventes,

" L’adoption du système des prix marqués,

" La pratique d’une sorte de droit à l’erreur,

" L’entrée libre,

" La pratique des ventes promotionnelles,

" La diversification de l’assortiment,

" La mise en place d’un service de livraison à domicile,

" La mise en place d’une politique de personnel stimulante.

• Franck Winfield Woolworth (Etats-Unis)


Il est l’inventeur de la formule du magasin populaire en 1879, en ouvrant une boutique

« Five & Ten » qui propose des articles courants à deux prix bas, 5 et 10 cents.

Les grands principes de la formule du magasin populaire selon Woolworth sont :

" L’implantation des magasins dans les artères les plus animées d’une ville,

" Les achats directs aux fabricants,

" L’assortiment limité aux produits de grande consommation,

" La vente à prix unique.

• Clarence Saunders (Etats-Unis)

Il est l’inventeur, en 1915, du premier entrepôt de gros fonctionnant en libre-service,

« Piggly Wiggly ».

Sa formule est celle du « Cash and carry » : les acheteurs enlèvent eux même la

marchandise à l’entrepôt vendeur, paient comptant et se chargent de l’emballage et de

l’acheminement.

• Michael Cullen (Etats-Unis)

Il est l’inventeur de la formule du supermarché en 1930, avec son premier magasin du

nom de « King Cullen ».

Le premier supermarché français fut ouvert par le succursaliste Goulet Turpin en 1958 et,

c’est en juin 1960 que la société Carrefour a ouvert, à Annecy en Haute-Savoie, son premier

supermarché.

Les grands principes de la formule du supermarché selon Cullen sont :

" L’installation des magasins à l’écart des rues commerçantes,

" La limitation et frais généraux,

" La publicité massive sur les articles à prix coûtant.

• Marcel Fournier (France)

Il est l’inventeur de la formule de l’hypermarché.


En 1959, avec Denis et Jacques Defforey, il fonde la société Carrefour.

En 1963, le premier hypermarché Carrefour, d’une superficie de 2 400 m², s’ouvre à Sainte

Geneviève des Bois dans l’Essonne. Le premier hypermarché français et mondial est aussi

créé.

Son succès repose sur le concept du « tout sous le même toit » le libre-service et le

discount.

Ainsi, la distribution assure différentes fonctions pour mettre les produits à la

disposition des consommateurs.


LA REGLEMENTATION DE L’URBANISME COMMERCIALE EN FRANCE

DEFINITION

L'urbanisme commercial est "l'adaptation du commerce aux conditions nouvelles de vie

créées par la fixation de populations de plus en plus nombreuses hors des centres urbains

existants" (Armand Dayon, Manuel de la distribution)

Différents éléments sont à l'origine de l'urbanisme commercial : l'accroissement du parc

automobile des particuliers, par exemple.

L'évolution de l'urbanisme commercial a conduit au développement du concept des rues

piétonnes dans les grandes villes. Les consommateurs s'habituent à laisser leur voiture dans

les parkings et à faire leur shopping dans les rues où ils peuvent flâner. Les commerçants

voient leur chiffre d'affaires augmenter.

LES DATES IMPORTANTES

1969 : Création dans chaque département d'une commission consultante d'urbanisme

commercial, premier embryon de contrôle des grandes surfaces, par le ministre du

Commerce et de l'Artisanat, Yvon Bourges.

1970 : Recommandations faites aux préfets par le Premier Ministre, afin de surveiller la

création des grandes surfaces.

1972 : Amplification des récriminations contre le développement des grandes surfaces. Le

gouvernement impose une taxe de 20 francs/m² aux structures de plus de 400 m² ouvertes

après 1960, pour venir en aide aux petits commerçants âgés.

1973 : Approbation par le Parlement en décembre de la loi d'orientation du commerce et de

l'artisanat, dite "loi Royer" applicable au 1er janvier 1974. (voir 2.3 "La loi Royer")

1977 : Instauration d'un contrôle des concentrations par le Premier ministre Raymond Barre.


1981 : Instauration pendant une année du gel des grandes surfaces par le ministre du

Commerce et de l'Artisanat André Delélis.

1987 : Affirmation de la conformité de la loi Royer au Traité de Rome par la Cour

européenne de justice.

1990 : Soumission à une autorisation préalable des lotissements commerciaux par la loi

Doubin.

1991 : La taxe sur les grandes surfaces passe à 40 francs/m²

1992 : Réforme de la loi Royer sur l'urbanisme commercial.

1993 : Le gel des autorisations pour implanter des grandes surfaces, (toutes les CDEC,

Commission Départementale d'Equipement Commercial ne sont pas en état de fonctionner)

par la circulaire Madelin, ministre des Entreprises et du Développement Economique.

Cette circulaire met tout d'abord en place des dispositions nouvelles en matière d'urbanisme

commercial avec le décret Balladur du 16 novembre 1993.

Elle crée, après, un Observatoire national d'équipement commercial composé de 17

membres, élus pour 3 ans et chargés de présenter au Premier ministre un rapport annuel sur

l'évolution de l'appareil commercial et de l'analyse des décisions prises par les CDEC.

Cette circulaire oblige, ensuite, toute demande d'autorisation déposée auprès des CDEC

d'être accompagnée d'une étude d'impact (c'est-à-dire la délimitation de la zone de

chalandise du projet, le marché théorique, la population des communes concernées, les

équipements commerciaux existants, le chiffre d'affaires prévisionnel TTC du projet) qui sera

adressée aux chambres consulaires concernées par le projet.

Cette circulaire oblige, enfin, les magasins supérieurs à 400m² d'accompagner toute

demande d'extension d'un contrat d'huissier (attestant des surfaces et de la destination des

locaux existants) et d'une attestation de paiement de la taxe sur les grandes surfaces.

1996 : La loi Raffarin (ministre des PME, du Commerce et de l’Artisanat) resserre la

réglementation sur les grandes surfaces et fixe de nouvelles règles d’autorisation

d’exploitation.

Les dispositions principales de la loi Raffarin sont les suivantes :


• Le seuil d’autorisation d’ouverture d’un magasin est abaissé à 300 m² (1 000 m²

auparavant).

• Un plan indicatif de la future surface de vente doit être fourni ainsi que la délimitation et

l’évolution démographique de la zone de chalandise, l’équipement commercial existant,

le chiffre d'affaires annuel attendu et une étude d’impact du projet (pas indispensable

pour les projets de moins de 1 000 m²).

• Tout changement d’activité doit être soumis à une autorisation pour les magasins

dépassant 300 m² dans l’alimentaire et 2 000 m² dans le non alimentaire.

• La création de magasins supérieurs à 6 000 m² est soumise à une enquête publique.

• La composition des CDEC est modifiée (6 membres).

• Après un refus de la CNEC, une nouvelle demande pour un projet de magasin identique

ne peut être déposée pendant une période d’un an.

La CNEC comporte un huitième membre qualifié en matière d’emploi.

LA LOI ROYER

En 1973, l'approbation par le Parlement en décembre de la loi d'orientation du commerce et

de l'artisanat, dite "loi Royer" applicable à compter du 1er janvier 1974.

Cette loi soumet à une procédure d'orientation préalable, les créations de magasins d'une

surface de vente supérieure à 1 000 m² dans les communes de moins de 40 000 habitants,

et d'une surface de vente supérieure à 1 500 m² dans les communes de plus de plus de 40

000 habitants.

Elle instaure des Commissions Départementales d'Urbanisme Commercial (CDUC)

composées de dix membres et une Commission Nationale d'Urbanisme Commercial (CNUC)

de dix membres également.


Figure 10

Cette loi a des effets pervers :

Création de rentes de situations pour certains hypermarchés et accélération du

processus de concentration.

Développement de structure dont les surfaces de vente sont inférieures aux

limites fixées.

Tentations de corruption des membres des CDUC.

En 1992 a lieu la réforme de la loi Royer sur l'urbanisme commercial.

Cette réforme compte deux dispositions essentielles :

La suppression des CDUC et de la CNUC, remplacées respectivement par des

Commissions Départementales d'Equipement Commercial (CDEC) et la

Commission Nationale d'Equipement Commercial (CNEC).

La CDEC a pour fonction d'autoriser les projets soumis en totalité ou partiellement, en

réduisant les surfaces de vente demandées ou en supprimant des éléments du projet.

La CNEC prend des décisions après examen des recours qui lui sont soumis (décisions

susceptibles d'un recours en plein contentieux devant le Conseil d'Etat).

La limitation du rôle du ministre du Commerce qui perd notamment son pouvoir

d'accorder des autorisations, ce dernier appartient désormais à une

commission indépendante composée de magistrats.

Demande d'autorisation à la

CDUC

Examen du projet par la CDUC

Autorisation accordée

Autorisation refusée

Recours auprès du ministre du Commerce et de l'Artisanat (dans un

délai de deux mois)

Avis de la CNUC (dans un délai de trois mois)

Décision finale du ministre du Commerce et de l'Artisanat.


Exemples : Mapping


V Bbibliography

LIVRES

♦ Management stratégique des points de vente, G CLIQUET.

♦ Connaître la Mercatique, Y. CORDEY et B. PERCONTE.

♦ La distribution, D. BARCZYK et R. EVRARD.

♦ Marketing de la distribution, J. JALLAIS, J. ORSINI, A. FADY.

♦ Mercatique, M. KAEHL et J.L. KAEHL.

♦ Notions fondamentales de mercatique, J. HAVAK, M.H. FOSSE, M. DARBELET,

J.L. KAEHL, M. KAEHL.

♦ Kotler & Dubois (9ème édition).

♦ Cinquante fiches pour comprendre le Marketing, B. PERCONTE.

REVUES

♦ Marketing Direct – N°37, mai 1999. Géomarketing : Encore jeune et déjà

mature.

♦ LSA – N°1502, septembre 1996. Faut-il croire au géomarketing ?

♦ Marketing Direct – N°35, mars 1999. Dossier décisionnel, la révolution ordinaire

du géomarketing.

♦ Distribution d’aujourd’hui – octobre 1997.

♦ Décisions Marketing, n°8, mai-août 1996.

♦ LSA, n°1410, 15/09/94.

♦ Recherche et Application en Marketing, l’implantation d’hypermarché :

comparaison de deux méthodes d’évaluation du potentiel, LAURIANE LAPARRA.

♦ Géomarketing Expert-N°2, mars 2000. Géomarketing : Il ne lui manque que les

données

♦ Decision Sciences volume 30 number 1, winter 1999, Presenting géographic

information : Effects of data aggregation, dispersion and users’ spatial orientation,

Morgan SWINK et Cheri SPEIR.


CONFERENCE

♦ 3èmes rendez-vous de la VPC et du marketing direct.

INTERNET

http://www.SIG-la-lettre.com


VI Table of figures

• Figure 1 : Répartition par année d’ancienneté de l’utilisation du géomarketing

Page 3

• Figure 2 : Répartition en pourcentage des services où est utilisé le géomarketing

Page 3

• Figure 3 : Composition du SIG

Page 5

• Figure 4 : Représentation de l’espace Libre entre les zones de chalandises de points de

ventes équivalents

Page 7

• Figure 5 : Représentation de la zone de concurrence du à l’espace libre

Page 7

• Figure 6 : Représentation des aires de marché hexagonales dû notamment à

l’accélération de la concurrence spatiale

Page 7

• Figure 7 : Représentation des naissances des réseaux de niveaux inférieurs

Page 8

• Figure 8 : Représentation des zones de marché

Page 10

• Figure 9 : Constitution des zones en fonction des adresses

Page 16

• Figure 10 : Schéma simplifié de la procédure d'autorisation d’implantation d’un point de

vente

Page 30

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Copyright (c) Sacha BERNARD · Response (ECR) or such as Category Management. Geomarketing is a operational marketing technique which is base on a cartographic representation and