COPING WITH THE 21COPING WITH THE 21STST CENTURY; CENTURY; THE ROLE OF WOODLANDSTHE ROLE OF WOODLANDS. 

 

Chris PollockChris Pollock  Aberystwyth UniversityAberystwyth University

CLIMATE CHANGE IS REALCLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL

Models suggest Models suggest that climate that climate

change effects change effects on yieldon yield

are positive are positive or neutral at high or neutral at high

latitudes, latitudes, but negative but negative

at low latitudesat low latitudes

THE MULTIPLIERSTHE MULTIPLIERS

• Growing competition for waterGrowing competition for water

• Increasing populationIncreasing population

• Increasing demand for animal productsIncreasing demand for animal products

• Increasing competition for landIncreasing competition for land

• Increasing fragility of key ecosystemsIncreasing fragility of key ecosystems

How will these interact with the direct effectsHow will these interact with the direct effects to influence global supply networks?to influence global supply networks?

Projections of water use and actual global water withdrawalsProjections of water use and actual global water withdrawalsSCIENCE VOL 302 28 NOVEMBER 2003SCIENCE VOL 302 28 NOVEMBER 2003

Bio

div

ers

ity

Bio

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10,000BC10,000BC 1900 AD1900 AD TodayToday

Natural and semi-natural populationsNatural and semi-natural populations

““Unplanned” populations (weeds etcUnplanned” populations (weeds etc)

““Planned” populations (crops etc)Planned” populations (crops etc)

Changes in biodiversity attributable toChanges in biodiversity attributable to the development of agriculturethe development of agriculture

Redrawn from Edwards & Hilbeck, 2001

Small-scale Small-scale Mixed farmingMixed farming

Large-scaleLarge-scaleSpecialist farmingSpecialist farming

POTENTIAL RISKSPOTENTIAL RISKS

• Rising Prices (*)Rising Prices (*)

• Increased price volatility (**)Increased price volatility (**)

• Reduced security of supply (***)Reduced security of supply (***)

• Possible safety implications (****)Possible safety implications (****)

• Reduction in consumer choice (????)Reduction in consumer choice (????)

• Increased “footprint” of agriculture Increased “footprint” of agriculture (*****)(*****)

SUSTAINABLE LAND USE:SUSTAINABLE LAND USE:

Facilitates the long-term Facilitates the long-term generation of economic or societal generation of economic or societal

benefits with minimal impact on benefits with minimal impact on the environment and in a way that the environment and in a way that

supports the rural economysupports the rural economy

The essential dilemma. Can The essential dilemma. Can we farm sustainably and we farm sustainably and

feed everyone?feed everyone?

THE INDUSTRY MUST RESPONDTHE INDUSTRY MUST RESPOND

• UK Climate Change Bill publishedUK Climate Change Bill published

• All sectors expected to develop All sectors expected to develop mitigation optionsmitigation options

• Land Use has particular challenges:Land Use has particular challenges:– NN22O and CHO and CH4 4 more significant than COmore significant than CO22

– Very complex interactions determine scale Very complex interactions determine scale of emissionsof emissions

– Limited mitigation optionsLimited mitigation options

THERE ARE LOW-HANGING THERE ARE LOW-HANGING FRUITFRUIT

• Reduce direct COReduce direct CO22 emissions (1-2%) emissions (1-2%)

• Reduce CHReduce CH44 emissions by maximising emissions by maximising

conversion efficiency and by good conversion efficiency and by good slurry management (5-10%)slurry management (5-10%)

• Reduce NReduce N22O emissions by improved O emissions by improved

input management (10-15%)input management (10-15%)

• Consider small-scale renewable energy Consider small-scale renewable energy

These can also reduce enterprise costsThese can also reduce enterprise costs

OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR WOODLANDWOODLAND

• Renewable energyRenewable energy• Renewable building materialsRenewable building materials• Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration• Habitat restoration and wildlife Habitat restoration and wildlife

corridorscorridors• Water ManagementWater Management• Clean-up of diffuse pollutionClean-up of diffuse pollution• Enhancement of landscape diversityEnhancement of landscape diversity

THE BIG QUESTIONTHE BIG QUESTION

Do we have the policy framework Do we have the policy framework that will encourage sustainable that will encourage sustainable

land management in general and land management in general and sustainable woodland sustainable woodland

development in particular?development in particular?

THREE EXAMPLES WHERE WE THREE EXAMPLES WHERE WE DO NOTDO NOT

• Compensation for income foregone Compensation for income foregone does not value ecosystem services does not value ecosystem services properlyproperly

• Micro-CHP is not yet profitable because Micro-CHP is not yet profitable because of power company rulesof power company rules

• Residues from anaerobic digestion of Residues from anaerobic digestion of municipal green waste cannot be municipal green waste cannot be applied to cropsapplied to crops

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

• Climate change cannot be viewed in Climate change cannot be viewed in isolationisolation

• Other factors will also impact on UK Other factors will also impact on UK land useland use

• The industry will have to adaptThe industry will have to adapt• There are specific opportunities for There are specific opportunities for

woodlandwoodland• Changes in policy and regulation are Changes in policy and regulation are

neededneeded