EXPERIENCES OF THE MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION IN FLOOD MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN

Petrina RowcroftDevelopment EconomistBasin Development Plan

Regional Workshop on Methodologies of Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Disasters in Asia and their Application for Poverty Eradication and Economic

Development

ContentContentContentContent

Context

MRC approach to flood management and mitigation

Impact Assessment

Mekong River CommissionMekong River CommissionMekong River CommissionMekong River Commission

In 1995, the four governments of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam signed an Agreement for the Sustainable Development of the Lower Mekong Basin

VisionVisionVisionVision

“Economically prosperous, socially just and environmentally sound”

GoalsGoalsGoalsGoals

Enhanced economic and social well-being Improved living standards of the basin

inhabitants Optimisation of the multiple use and mutual

benefits of all riparians Minimising the harmful effects that might

result from natural occurrences and man-made activities

DEALING WITH FLOODSDEALING WITH FLOODSDEALING WITH FLOODSDEALING WITH FLOODS

MRC focus is on:– Regional and transboundary water-related issues

and impacts. – Local impacts dealt with by line agencies together

with international and civil society organisations. MRC provides supplementary services

– Predictive assessment using various basin development planning scenarios (BDP)

– Analysis and assessment of flood-related impacts (FMMP)

– Balanced approach…

Flood BenefitsFlood BenefitsFlood BenefitsFlood Benefits

After-flood abundance of fish Flushes the Mekong Delta to protect from

salinity intrusion Aids fish migration to spawning grounds and

recharge of Tonle Sap Great Lake Deposition of essential sediments for soil

fertility Often attracts large amounts of foreign

investment for flood rehabilitation

Flood CostsFlood CostsFlood CostsFlood Costs

Loss of life (> 800 people during 2000 floods)

Loss of agricultural productivity (measured using agricultural potential)

Damage to infrastructureImpediment to navigation and trade

Flood Management & Mitigation Flood Management & Mitigation Programme (FMMP)Programme (FMMP)

Flood Management & Mitigation Flood Management & Mitigation Programme (FMMP)Programme (FMMP)

Flood Management & Mitigation Strategy – formulated in response to 2000 floods

Based around four groups of management areas to reduce flood risk and flood hazard across the floodplain

Land-use Planning Measures are aimed at ‘keeping people away from the floodwaters’

Structural Measures are aimed at ‘keeping floodwaters away from the people’

Flood Preparedness Measures recognise that - no matter how effective the above types of management measures are – an overwhelming flood will always occur.

Flood Emergency Measures deal with the aftermath of such an event by ‘helping affected people to cope with floods’.

Flood ManagementFlood ManagementFlood ManagementFlood Management

Integrated Floodplain Integrated Floodplain ManagementManagement

Integrated Floodplain Integrated Floodplain ManagementManagement

Requires an integrated and coordinated mix of management measures

Must reflect:– the flooding, flood risk and flood hazard

characteristics of the particular floodplain– the specific social and economic characteristics of

the flood-prone communities– environmental and resource management plans

and policies for the floodplain.

Flood PreparednessFlood PreparednessFlood PreparednessFlood Preparedness

23 hydrological monitoring stations provide real-time data on observed and forecast water levels

Observed levels published daily on MRC website (www.mrcemekong.org)

Also provide weekly flood forecasts and yearly data

Coming Soon…Coming Soon…Coming Soon…Coming Soon…

Establishment of a regional FMM Centre Studies, policy discussions on land use planning and

infrastructure development in relation to flood impacts (BDP)

Flood proofing measures Flood forecasting, warning and dissemination

services Mediation services Analysis of risk and impacts Strengthening of capacity to manage flood

emergencies

Basin Development Plan (BDP)Basin Development Plan (BDP)Basin Development Plan (BDP)Basin Development Plan (BDP)

Working towards the formulation of a management strategy and plan for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB)

Scenario-based planning approach– External conditions (e.g. climate change)– Human interventions

Requires multi-level predictive assessment – current focus is on strategic level

Impact Assessment in the BDPImpact Assessment in the BDPImpact Assessment in the BDPImpact Assessment in the BDP

Tools being developed for assessment of impacts resulting from scenarios – Decision Support Framework (DSF)– RAOM– SEA– SIA– MCA and expert opinion

Results used to focus planning efforts by ranking development scenarios (e.g. most preferred to least preferred)

BDP shortlist BDP strategy

Regional initiativesNational plansBDP longlist

MRC Agreement

Consultation &

Negotiation

Assessment criteria

MCA

Assessment framework

Compare & rank

Scenarios Analysis of impacts

Expert opinion

RAOMSEA

DSF

Scenario formulation

Water Environment Social & economic

Impact analysisImpact analysisImpact analysisImpact analysis Impacts of different scenarios are described using

expert opinion and models (DSF)– hydrological– environmental– social– economic

Impacts may be poorly understood / little data available / difficult to quantify– particularly for social and economic impacts– work with existing knowledge– qualitative / descriptive vs quantitative

DSF

DSF and other sources

Socio-Economic Impact Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Floods in BDPAssessment of Floods in BDP

Socio-Economic Impact Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Floods in BDPAssessment of Floods in BDP

Significance of impacts related to flood timing, flood depth and flood duration

DSF provides hydrological data and simulation models to show extent of floods under different development conditions

Knowledge base contains spatially referenced data (GIS) which assists in prediction of socio-economic and environmental impacts

Most socio-economic assessment done outside of the DSF

Flood depths

Flood durations

Examples of spatial data in the DSF

– Inundation map in Aug & Sept 2000

– Major cities in the LMB

– Village centres (Lao & Cambodia)

DSF Application to DSF Application to environmental and socio-environmental and socio-

economic assessmenteconomic assessment

DSF Application to DSF Application to environmental and socio-environmental and socio-

economic assessmenteconomic assessmentEnvironmental impacts by reference to

changes in flow conditions

Impacts on land-use potential and value by reference to the extent, duration and timing of flooding on lands of different classes

Potentially impacted population Potentially impacted population (PIP)(PIP)

Potentially impacted population Potentially impacted population (PIP)(PIP)

Geo-referenced population data obtained from village-level census (population and number of households) in Cambodia and Laos.

Flood duration data (flood defined as > 0.5m) Sum of population * flood duration = no. of

person days flooding Provides clear indication of where impacts

most felt and therefore provides a focus for basin development planning in terms of flood management and mitigation measures

FloodingDSF gives changes in extent and duration of flooding, and information about the type of land flooded (land use, wetland type)

NO information on

• impact on ecosystems

• impact on fish production

• value of reduced damage from floods as a result of dams

….etc

Flooded area (ha)

Tre

y rie

l ca t

ch

Before dam

After dam

Flooded area (ha)

Cos

t of

flo

od d

amag

e

Before dam

After dam

Environment - wetlands

GIS in DSF gives location of wetlands, and some information on type

Time Series Analysis Tool

01/ Jan/ 1995 - 31/ Dec/ 2000

Kratie: f lowgfedcb M.A.: Kratie: f lowgfedcb

12/5/200012/6/199912/6/199812/6/199712/6/199612/7/1995

flow

(cum

ecs)

55,000

50,000

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

NO information on

• response of wetland plants or animals to changes in flow

• how changes would affect subsistence use

• value of wetland produce and how this would change

Social Impacts

GIS in DSF gives • location of villages• population• some information on social

conditions (from Census, provincial level)

NO information on• subsistence livelihoods• resettlement options and

preferences• cultural values• ethnic minorities…..etc

Economic impactsGIS in DSF gives some information on land use, irrigation

NO information on

• value of agricultural production (at present)

• non-agricultural industries

• value of power generated

• costs of relocation

BEYOND THE DSF…

Social Impact Assessment Social Impact Assessment Social Impact Assessment Social Impact Assessment

BDP currently in process of developing indicators and assessment framework based on Sustainable Livelihoods Approaches (Assets, Capabilities, Vulnerability, etc)

Participatory – requires understanding of how different people relate to different resources (differential impacts on gender, ethnic groups, income groups, etc)

Economic Impact AssessmentEconomic Impact AssessmentEconomic Impact AssessmentEconomic Impact Assessment

Quantitative assessment of relative costs and benefits of flooding

– Changes in agricultural productivity (based on potential value)– Loss of life– Replacement costs of damaged infrastructure– Opportunity costs of limited/no access to infrastructure– Impacts upon subsistence users (opportunity costs of limited

access to/availability of natural resources)– Upstream and downstream impacts (e.g. loss of fish has

implications on suppliers of fishing gear and fish production facilities)

– Environmental-economic impacts difficult to quantify as relationships not yet fully understood (e.g. floods and fish productivity)

Potential for application of Potential for application of ECLAC Methodology?ECLAC Methodology?

Potential for application of Potential for application of ECLAC Methodology?ECLAC Methodology?

Thank youThank you