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Consumer system deployment
100 Chevy Volts
Home services systems
Sony, Intel, Best BuyWhirlpool
Smart appliances
Residential PV – 175 homes
2008-2010Smart grid “could be as big as the original Internet.”
“Greentech could be the largest economic opportunity of the 21st century.”
“Next-generation smart grid technology [will] grow to a $20 billion market by 2015.”
“Unlike the Internet, which went through a rapid boom-and-bust cycle – a classic bubble – the transition to new energy ... technologies will look more like a long boom.”
“Clean tech offers the promise to be the next big engine of business and economic growth.”
Summer 2011
“Google Kills PowerMeter”June 24, 2011
“Microsoft Follows Google to Home Energy Graveyard”
July 1, 2011
“Cleantech investing drops by a third”
July 6, 2011
“The Crisis in Clean Energy”
July/August 2011
“SolarWorld shuts solar panel factory in California”
September 2, 2011
“Evergreen Solar files for bankruptcy”
August 15, 2011
“Solyndra to file for bankruptcy, lay off 1,100”
August 31, 2011
Why the clean energy economy is
underperforming
Preconditions for disruptive innovations have yet to occur
Disruptive innovations are necessary to achieve significant growth
New technologies have been deployed overwhelmingly by utilities.New products and services overwhelmingly ignore innovation theory.
3 ways new technologies enter market
Sustaining innovation
Within existing market and delivery structure
Regulatory fiat Policy mandates
Disruptive innovation
New customers or consumption occasions
Boeing 777, plasma TV
Smoke alarm, corn ethanol
Telephone, transistor radio, mobile phone, Japanese photocopiers
Economic growth potential
Sustaining innovation
Moderate, incremental
Regulatory fiat Moderate or negative
Disruptive innovation
Significant
Sustaining innovations
How deployed Within existing market and delivery structure
Customers Most demanding customers in industry
What they’ll pay for Improvements to incumbent systems along metrics they value
Capability: software upgrades
Ethical
Winning companies Incumbents
Sustaining innovations
Cramming Deploying new technologies into incumbent models
Impact Not disruptive
New technology’s features a liabilityCompany tries to convince customers to change behavior or put up with something they don’t seem to want
even though they don’t work well in that model
Regulatory fiat
How deployed Regulation, legislation
Customers Subject of government mandate
What they’ll pay for What is required to complyDistinction between product mandate and performance mandate
Disruptive innovations
How deployed New platform
Customers Customer whose needs aren’t well met by incumbent offerings
Requirements Solves a problem for customers that incumbent solutions do not do well
New platform
Killer app
New location / context of consumption
Winning companies New entrants
Disruptive innovations
Platform characteristics
Built on other platforms
Capable of more than one use
“Plug and play”
light bulb sockets, 120v outlets, USB
Examples:
well-defined interfaces
Microsoft Windows
Internet
Electric grid
Empower customers to do job in new context
Disruptive innovations
iPhone and App Store
GPS services
Calculator makers
Camera companies
CD and DVD manufacturersVideo camera companies
Map makers
Stopwatch makers
Compass makersLarge software companies
disruptive to –
Phone companies
Innovation checklist
What type of innovation?
Electric vehicle
In-home charging
In-home charging with –
rooftop solar PV
Solar farms
Home energy management system
in-home battery
Public charging stations
Sustaining innovations
• Gas-fired peakers
• Smart meters
• Demand response
• Time of use pricing
• Electric vehicles
Sustaining innovations
• Solar farms
• Utility-run home energy management
• Utility-scale Batteries
Cramming
Disruptive
Centered on Home Services Systems
Leverage energy data for new products and services
Similar to App Store model
Roadmap
Roadmap
• Vehicle charging in residential garage
• Natural gas grid
• Rooftop PV charging of vehicles
• Apartment building microgrids
• Home apps• Home health care
monitoring
Innovation checklist
What is the product?
Who is the target customer?
Where is the product deployed or used?Is the product deployed or used in a different location than the incumbent solution?
What job is the customer trying to get done with the product?What are the incumbent solutions?
What type of innovation is it?
Is the customer either a low-end customer or a new consumer of products that do this job?
Innovation checklist
What are the metrics of performance that are important to the most demanding customers in the industry?
How do target customers feel underserved by incumbent solutions?
Does the product have performance limitations compared to incumbent products?
How would the product provide superior performance in the area where the target customer feels underserved?
What refinements would be needed in the product to make it attractive to the mainstream market?
Sustaining innovations
Innovation checklist
What is the new platform on which the product is deployed?
Which uses does the platform enable?
How does the product help customers do more easily and effectively what they were already trying to get done?
Disruptive innovations
Does the product’s success depend on the customer changing behavior or adopting new priorities?