Consumer Demand and Market TrendsComments on Data

Helen H. Jensen

Iowa State University

Data for analysis

Consumer survey, scanner, intake data provide– Form of food eaten– Location of eating– Factors associated with food choice– Useful for program design and evaluation

Food supply/availability provide– Historic trends, cross country comparisons

New technical data bases for users

Pyramid food servings– Converts foods as eaten to pyramid group

servings

Technical data bases on commodities (EPA)– Converts foods to amounts of basic

“commodities”

Food supply – servings data Individual diet analysis (CNPP)

ISU study of trade data on wheat

Goal: to investigate losses in system due to omissions of wheat trade (imports and exports)

Current trade estimates include wheat flour and wheat flour in pasta, macaroni, etc.

We estimated amount of wheat in other traded foods (breads, cereals and mixes)

Results: – Amount of wheat in other food products was a significant

component of both exports and imports but net effect is relatively small

– Distribution among products differs between exports and imports

Figure 3. Current and New Estimates of Wheat Flour Exports (2000)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Current New

1000

cwt

Wheat flour Pasta Mixes , cereals , bread and s imilar products

Source: Current estimates ( USDA, Food consumption prices and expenditures http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/spreadsheets.asp)New estimates: Calculated by Iowa State University (Batres-Marquez and Jensen, 2002). Data for new estimates: http://www.fas.usda.gov/ustradeFood commodity Intake database (FCID) and Technical support files (from CSFII 1994-96,98)

Figure 7. New Estimates Wheat Flour Exports from Value Added Products by Commodity Groups (2000)

Group 2 (Pasta)24%

Group 3 (Cereals)11%

Group 4 (Bread and similar prod.)

42%

Group 1 (M ixes) 23%

Source: Batres-Marquez and Jensen, 2002. Data for new estimates: http://www.fas.usda.gov/ustrade/, Food commodity Intake database (FCID) and Technical support files (from CSFII 1994-96,98)Note: Pasta includes uncooked, canned and frozen (stuffed, nesoi pasta); and couscousBread and similar products includes corn chips and similar savory snack foods and pizza and quicheNew estimates: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/schedules/b/2002/schdb.txt., Food commodity Intake database (FCID) and Technical support files (from CSFII 1994-96,98)

Figure 9. Current and New Estimates of Wheat Flour Imports (2000)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Current New

1000

cw

t

Wheat flour Pasta Mixes, cereals, and bread and similar products

Source: Current estimates ( USDA, Food consumption prices and expenditures http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/spreadsheets.asp) New estimates: Batres-Marquez and Jensen, 2002. Data for new estimates: http://www.fas.usda.gov/ustrade/, Food commodity Intake database(FCID) and Technical support files (from CSFII 1994-96,98)

Figure 13. New Estimates Wheat Flour Imports from Valued Added Products by

Commodity Group (2000)

Group 1 (Mixes)9%

Group 2 (Pasta)49%

Group 3 (Cereals)3%

Group 4 (Bread and similar products)

39%

Source: Current estimates ( USDA, Food consumption prices and expenditures http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/spreadsheets.asp) New estimates: Batres-Marquez and Jensen, 2002. Data from: http://www.fas.usda.gov/ustrade/, Food commodity Intake database (FCID) and Technical support files (from CSFII 1994-96,98)Note: Pasta includes uncooked, canned and frozen (stuffed, nesoi pasta); and couscousBread and similar products includes corn chips and similar savory snack foods and pizza and quiche

Discussion

Commodities are not “foods” New markets and technologies mean continuing

changes Increasing demand for consumer information and

education on use of labels. – Dairy vs. orange juice as source of calcium– Color of bread vs. label as indicator of whole wheat

Regulatory challenge of new food products– Biofortification with benefits for consumers– Increased use of specialty grains (e.g.,high protein, altered

fatty acid composition, other functional properties)