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Feb 15-19/2015
1
ByProf. Karim El-Dash
1Prof. Karim El-Dash www.projacsacademy.com
Prof. Karim El-Dash www.projacsacademy.com 2
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Human Resources
Risk
Cost
Time Quality
Procurement Communication
Stakeholders
Prof. Karim El-Dash www.projacsacademy.com 3
A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique
Product
Service
Improvement
ResultProf. Karim El-Dash www.projacsacademy.com 4
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Project Management is the application
of knowledge, skills, tools, and
techniques to project activities to meet
project requirements.
Prof. Karim El-Dash www.projacsacademy.com 5
1. Initiating
2. Planning
3. Executing
4. Monitoring & controlling
5. Closing
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Prof. Karim El-Dash www.projacsacademy.com 7
Time
Start the project
Organizing & preparing
Carrying out work Closing the project
Project Charter
Project Management Plan
Accepted deliverables
Archived project documents
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cost
Influence / risk
Time
Prof. Karim El-Dash www.projacsacademy.com 9
Is a narrative description of products or services to be
delivered by the project
For internal projects, the project sponsor provides the
statement of work
For external projects, the statement of work can be
received from the customer as part of a bid document
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The project management plan is the process of documenting the actions necessary to define, prepare, integrate, and coordinate all subsidiary plans.
How project will be executed?
How changes will be monitored and controlled?
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Perform activities
Create deliverables
Staff, train, and manage
Manage and use resources
Implement the planned methods and standards
Establish and manage project communication channels
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How the scope will be defined, developed, monitored, controlled, and verified.
1. Preparing scope statement2. Enable creation of WBS3. Specify how formal acceptance will be obtained4. Control processing of change requests
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How requirements will be analyzed, documented, and managed.
1. Requirements activities planned, tracked, reported.
2. Configuration management activities3. Prioritization4. Metrics 5. Traceability structure
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Scheduling Methods
Scheduling Tools
Project schedule
Schedule model
Output
Project Information
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Project Budget
Management reserve
Cost Baseline
Control accounts
Contingency reserve
Work packages cost estimates
Activity contingency reserve
Activity cost estimate
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It is an authorized time-phased
budget at completion (BAC)
that is used as a basis against
which to measure, monitor,
and control overall cost
performance on the project.
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Variable Costs that change with the amount of production.
Fixed Costs that do not change as production changes.
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Direct Costs for a project include the direct
costs for materials, labor, and equipment that
can be related specifically to a task or an
activity.
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Indirect costs are the necessary costs of doing business that
cannot be related to a particular activity and in some cases
cannot be related to a specific project.
general overhead
project overhead.
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Includes all the processes & activities of the
performing organization that determine
quality policies, objectives, and
responsibilities so that the project will satisfy
the needs for which it was undertaken.
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Quality is
“the degree to which a set of inherent
characteristics fulfill requirements”
Grade is
“a category assigned to products or services
having the same functional use but different
technical characteristics”
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Customer satisfaction
Prevention over inspection
Continuous improvement
PDCA
SIX SIGMA
LEAN SIX SIGMA
OPM3
CMMI
Management responsibility
Cost of quality
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Plan Quality
Perform Quality Assurance
Perform Quality Control
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Less rework
Higher productivity
Lower costs
Increased satisfaction
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Quality costs are:
Investment in preventing nonconformance to
requirements
Appraising the product or service for
conformance to requirements
Failing to meet requirements (rework)
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Conformance =
prevention +
appraisal
Non-conformance
= internal + external
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1- Cause-and-effect diagram / Fishbone / Ishikawa
Delay in Project
ManagementMaterialsFunding
ScopeProductivity
Labor
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2- Flowcharts
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3- Checksheets
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4- Pareto diagram
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5- Histograms
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6- Control charts
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7- Scatter diagram
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Identify best practice
generate ideas for
improvement
provide a basis to measure
performance
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DOE is a statistical method
for identifying which factors
may influence specific
variables of a product or
process under development
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Mean
Standard deviation
Mode
Median
Probability distribution
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Brainstorming
Force field analysis
Nominal group technique
Quality management & control tools
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Quality Management Plan
Quality Metrics
Quality Checklists
Process Improvement Plan
Process boundaries
Process configurations
Process metrics
Targets for improved performance Project document updates
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Is the process of auditing the
quality requirements and the
results from quality control
measurements to ensure
appropriate quality
standards and operational
definitions are used
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http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/statistical_thinking_tools/interrelationship_digraphs/
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Quality audit
Is a structured, independent review to determine if project
activities comply with organizational and project policies,
processes, and procedures
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It examines problems,
constraints, and non-value-
added activities
It includes root cause
analysis - to identify a
problem, discover
underlying causes, and
develop preventing actions
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The process of monitoring
and recording results of
executing the quality
activities to assess
performance and
recommend necessary
changes.
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Perform Quality Control
1. Project management plan2. Quality metrics3. Quality checklists4. Work performance data5. Approved changes requests6. Deliverables7. Project documents8. Organizational process
assets
Inputs
1. Seven basic quality tools2. Statistical sampling3. Inspection4. Approved change request
review
Tools & Techniques
1. Quality control measurements2. Validated changes3. Verified deliverables4. Work performance information5. Change requests6. Project management plan
updates7. Project document updates8. Organizational process assets
updates
Outputs
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WEEK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
AVG 300 333 325 332 340 345 350 340 341 345 349 354 350 344 333 325 318 305 298 306 310 315 310 318
Centerline = .3325
2423222120191817161514131211109876543210
0.290
0.300
0.310
0.320
0.330
0.340
0.350
0.360
Weeks of the Season
Ba
ttin
g A
vera
ge
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Signal of special cause variation:
7 or more consecutive ascending or descending points
Centerline= 23
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Nu
mb
er
of
Inju
rie
s
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Signal of special cause variation:
7 or more consecutive data points on the same side of the centerline
3130292827262524232221201918171615141312111098765432100
10
20
30
40
March 1994 - Weekdays only plotted
Nu
mb
er
of
Me
ssa
ge
s
Centerline= 15
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Name: Karim EldashPosition: ManagerAge: 48
Name: Ahmad hasanPosition: Dept. MngrAge: 28
Name: John MarkPosition: Dept MngrAge: 37
Name: Joan LeePosition: Dept asstAge: 32
Name: Aishwarya RaiPosition: Dept MngrAge: 29
Name: Komaro BahramPosition: Asst Mngr
Age: 36
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Ahmed Hasan Aly Manal Haitham Aya
Feasibility R A I
Design I R A
Execute A R
Outsourcing A R
Handing out A R I
Public
relationsC C R A
R=responsible, A=accountable, C=consult, I=inform
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Team performance assessments
Skills
Competencies
Reduced turnover rate
Team cohesiveness
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Observation and Conversation
Project Performance Appraisals
Formal or informal
360 degree
Conflict Management
Withdrawing / smoothing /
compromising / forcing /
collaborating / confronting
Interpersonal skills
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Observation and Conversation Project Performance Appraisals Conflict Management Issue Log
Interpersonal skills
Leadership
Influencing
Effective decision making
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Goals
Decision making process
Environmental factors
Available info
Personal qualities
Stimulate creativity
Manage risk
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Includes the processes required to
ensure timely and appropriate
planning, creation, collection,
distribution, storage, retrieval,
management, control, monitoring,
and ultimate disposition of project
information
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Urgency of the need for information
Availability of technology
Ease of use
Project environment
Sensitivity & confidentiality
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Ideas, facts, suggestions
Ideas, facts, suggestions
Encode Decode
Noise
Feedback
Project environment
Acknowledgement
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Variance analysis
Forecasting methods
Communication
methods
Reporting systems
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Objectives are to:
increase the probability and impact of
positive events, and
decrease the probability and impact of
events adverse to the project
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Project risk is an uncertain event or condition
that, if it occurs, has an effect on a project
objective.
Objective : Scope / time / cost / quality
A risk has a cause or more and, if it occurs, an
impact or more.
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Stakeholder risk profile analysis
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Strategic risk scoring sheet
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Methodology Roles and responsibilities Budgeting Timing Categories Probability & Impact A relative scale “very unlikely” to “almost certainty”
could be used. Numerical probabilities on a general scale (e.g., 0.1,
0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9)
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Project
OrganizationalProjectManagement
Technical External Others
Time
Cost
Resource
Quality
Performance
Complexity
Objectives
Fund
Collaboration
Weather
Labor
Politics
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Level Likelihood Expected or actual frequency experienced
1 RareMay only occur in exceptional circumstances; simple process; noprevious incidence of non-compliance
2 UnlikelyCould occur at some time; less than 25% chance of occurring; noncomplex process &/or existence of checks and balances
3 Possible
Might occur at some time; 25 –50% chance of occurring; previousaudits/reports indicate non-compliance; complex process with extensivechecks & balances; impacting factors outside control of organization
4 Likely
Will probably occur in most circumstances; 50-75% chance ofoccurring; complex process with some checks & balances; impactingfactors outside control of organization
5 Almost certain
Can be expected to occur in most circumstances; more than 75%chance of occurring; complex process with minimal checks & balances;impacting factors outside control of organization
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Relative or numerical scales
ObjectiveVery low /
0.05Low / 0.10
Moderate / 0.20
High / 0.40Very
High / 0.80
CostInsignificant
increase<10%
increase10-20% increase
20-40% increase>40%
increase
TimeInsignificant
increase <5% increase5-10%
increase 10-20% increase>20%
increase
Scope
Barely noticed change
Minor changeMajor
changeUnacceptable by
sponsor
Product is
useless
QualityBarely noticed
Applications affected
Sponsor approval required
Unacceptable by sponsor
Product is
useless
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Consequences
Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Extreme
Rare Low Low Low Low Low
Unlikely Low Low Low Medium Medium
Possible Low Low Medium Medium Medium
Likely Low Medium Medium High High
Almost
certainLow Medium Medium High Extreme
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Involves changing the project management plan to eliminate the threat entirely
Some risks that arise early in the project can be avoided by clarifying requirements, obtaining information, improving communication, or acquiring expertise
One form of avoidance is to shut down the project
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Requires shifting the negative impact of a threat, along
with ownership of the response, to a third party.
Cost-type contract transfer the cost risk to the buyer
Fixed-price contract transfer risk to the seller
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Implies a reduction in the probability and/or impact of an adverse risk event to an acceptable threshold
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Indicates that the project team has
decided not to change the project plan
to deal with a risk, or is unable to
identify any other suitable response
Passive acceptance requires no action
Active acceptance strategy is to establish a contingency reserve for known (sometimes unknown) risks
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Eliminate the uncertainty associated with a
particular upside risk by making the
opportunity definitely happen.
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Involves allocating
ownership to a third party
who is best able to capture
the opportunity for the
benefit of the project
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Modifies the “size” of an
opportunity by:
1. Increasing probability
and/or positive impacts
2. Identifying and maximizing
key drivers of these
positive-impact risks
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Chapter 1
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Under-performance of in-house staff
Under-performance of worker teams and sub-contractors
Under-performance of suppliers
Damage to and/or loss of materials and equipment
Unavailability of working capital
Industrial action and other disputes
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Collaborative Planning, Lean Planning, Pull Planning, Right to left planning or Short-term planning
Minimizing work variability between tasks
Creating look-ahead plans that are based upon work without interruption, rework, or remobilization
Planning work on weekly basis through coordination meetings
Measuring progress using weekly learning to improve work practices
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Involves the creation of small, well defined, Work Packages that support the construction workforce.
Work Package supports one rotation (5 to 10 days) of a work crew
WP is based on activities that are extracted directly from the construction plan
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70% and 90% of projects overrun
Overrun varies between 50% and 100% of budget
Sydney Opera House - Final cost was 15 times more than originally planned
Channel Tunnel - Final cost was 80% more than originally planned
Boston Arterial Tunnel - Final cost was 196% more than originally planned
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1957 – 1963 – 1973 $12.5 ->>>>> $102
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1986 - 1994 £ 2.7 - >>>> £ 4.9
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1982 – 1997 – 2007 $ 2.7 - >>>>>> $ 15
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1. Creating material and information flows
2. Maximizing value generation
3. Using plan, execute and control paradigms
4. Optimization of entire system through collaboration
5. Continual improvement and pursuit of perfection
6. Focus on delivering the value desired by client
7. Systematically eliminating obstacles to value creation
8. Elimination of processes that create no value
9. Creating pull production
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Chapter 2
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Administration of the construction contract
Monitoring the work of the Contractor
Receive and resolve requests for information
Process all requests for changes
Responding to concerns from the public.
Minimize the impact on residents and businesses.
Checking all payments interim and final
Monitoring the quality of the work installed
Record all nonconforming & corrective action.
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Not responsible for safety of the work
Monitoring the work of others assigned
Promote a team environment
Perform periodic reviews
Reporting to the PM on the progress
Report major deviations of schedule, price, or quantity.
Report serious accidents to city administration.
Set up and maintain the project files.
Monitor all testing and maintain records
Notify the PM of quantity/testing issues
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Works under the direction of the Construction Engineer.
Perform inspection of a construction contractor’s work
Observes the contractor’s work and recommends approval
Maintains inspection records
Prepares daily inspection reports
Verify and maintain quantity data for payments.
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Labor and equipment mobilized
Material purchase orders
Permits obtained
Statutory requirements fulfilled
Schedules produced
Knowledge of plans, specifications and contract
Status of right of way and utility relocations
Site and the surrounding areas
Forms and contract administration procedures
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Check construction database, design, and accounting information
Formal communications made with the Prime Contractor
Representatives should be identified before pre-construction conference.
Know who the person representing the contractor.
Promote relationships with the contractors, utility companies and governmental authorities
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Potential areas for site offices,
Impact on local residences and businesses
Effect on permanent work
Cost of Contractor
Temporary services
Area provided for Contractor’s use
Plan of office layout by contractor
Access to the site.
The site security requirements
Prohibition of access toto areas of hazards 114Prof. Karim El-Dash www.projacsacademy.com
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Specifications, drawings, and standards referenced in the contract
Inspectors are familiar with the requirements
CI plays lead role in meetings with the Contractor
Revised documents.
Keeping as-built information.
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Notify testing agent of scheduled start
Coordinate testing requirements
Reliable schedule information
Appropriate testing equipment
Staff available for earthwork, concrete placement, asphalt
Notice of Nonconformance
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Checklist of all permits required
Who is responsible to get them.
Building Permit, Demolition,
Erosion and Sediment Control,
Cut and Fill, Tree Removal,
Haul Routes, Traffic Control,
Off-site Grading Plans, Noise,
Plumbing/Mechanical/Electrical,
Sewer Connection, Elevator/Escalator,
Automatic Sprinkler
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Qualifications, pre-approval,
% performed by subcontractors,
Payments to subcontractors.
Prime Contractor involved in planning, problem resolution
Official communications with subcontractors through the Prime Contractor.
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CORRESPONDENCES
DAILY/MONTHLY REPORTS
MEETINGS
PROJECT RECORD DOCUMENTS
PHOTOGRAPHIC RECORDS
CONTRACT DRAWING DISTRIBUTION AND REVISIONS
SHOP DRAWINGS, SAMPLE SUBMITTALS
REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION/CLARIFICATION
AGENCY/UTILITY COORDINATION MEETINGS
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Chapter 3
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Final schedule within two (depends on the project) weeks after the notice to proceed.
Procurement activities
Submittals and approval of shop and working drawings
Major equipment or material purchases
Maximum of 15 working days duration
Review logical sequence
Review durations are sensible and achievable
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Chapter 4
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Review all notifications of change from the Contractor
Monitor labor, equipment and materials involved
It may be necessary to proceed prior to settlement
Contractor notifies the CE of changed site conditions
Alert to field conditions to anticipate potential change.
CE requests detailed breakout of labor and material costs
If the CE agrees, the proposal is forwarded for approval.
CE will attempt to negotiate with the Contractor.
A change order may require an extension of contract time.
If there is no time extension, assess liquidated damages.
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The contractor is required to proceed with the work
CE acknowledge receipt of notice of intent of claim, in writing
The contract stipulates the dispute resolution procedures to be adopted.
CE shall assemble all documentary and other evidence relating to the claim
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Budget baseline
Schedule baseline
Control account baseline
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Method 1—Units Completed This method is applicable to tasks that involve
repeated production of easily measured pieces of work, when each piece requires approximately the same level of effort.
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Method 2—Incremental Milestone
This method is applicable to any control account that includes subtasks that must be handled in sequence.
Segmenting a task into subtasks is called developing “rules of credit ”
The percentage is normally based on the number of work-hours estimated.
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Method 3—Start/Finish
This method is applicable to tasks that lack definable intermediate
milestones.
A starting percentage of 50 % is reasonable for short duration, lower-
value tasks.
For tasks with a longer duration, a lesser percentage (20-30 %) would
be used at start.
For very short tasks, the start/finish percentages are usually 0 :100 %.
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Method 4—Supervisor Opinion
Where developing a more discrete status is not feasible.
Dewatering, temporary construction, and landscaping.
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Method 5—Cost Ratio This method is applicable to tasks that involve a
long period of time or that are continuous during the life of a project, and which are estimated and budgeted on bulk allocations of dollars and work-hours.
completionatforecast
datetoworkhoursorcostactualcomplete%
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Method 6—Weighted or Equivalent Units When the task being controlled involves a long period of
time and is composed of two or more overlapping subtasks, each with a different unit of work measurement. (rules of credit)
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Construction labor costs are the most variable element of the project construction budget.
Project management must continually compare the actual dollars to the budget dollars to identify deviations.
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crew sizes and craft composition; craft density (area per worker); interference with other crews; scheduling; material availability; equipment and tool availability; information availability, rework site layout; weather; constructability.Prof. Karim El-Dash www.projacsacademy.com
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Approach
Milestone
Critical activities
Responsibilities
Prioritization
Analyzing
Documentation
Change process
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Is a form of progressive
elaboration planning.
Work to be accomplished in the
near term is planned in detail at a
low level of the WBS
Work far in the future is planned
for WBS components that are at
a relatively high level of the WBS.
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Rolling Wave Planning
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Mandatory dependency inherent in the nature of the work being done / contractuallyrequired (hard logic)
Discretionary dependency determined by project team (soft logic)
External
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Expert judgment:
Analogous estimating
Parametric estimating
3-point estimate
Reserve analysis
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Expert judgment
Analogous estimating: also called top-down estimating, means using the actual duration of a previous, similar activity as the basis for estimating the duration of a future activity based on specific parameters like duration, budget, size, weight
Parametric estimating
3-point estimate
Reserve analysis
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Expert judgment
Analogous estimating
Parametric estimatinguses statistical relationship between
historical data and other variables
to estimate for activities, such as
multiplying quantity of work by
productivity rate
3-point estimate
Reserve analysis
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Expert judgment
Analogous estimating
Parametric estimating
3-point estimate
Optimistic, most likely, pessimistic
and
6
4 pMo
E
tttt
6
op ttt
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• Activity Cost Estimates
• Bases of estimates
how it was developed
assumptions
constraints
range of possible estimates (±15%, 8-10)
Confidence level
• Project document updates
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1- Crashing
2- Fast tracking
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Variable Costs that change with the amount of production.
Fixed Costs that do not change as production changes.
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Indirect costs are the necessary costs of doing business that
cannot be related to a particular activity and in some cases
cannot be related to a specific project.
general overhead
project overhead.
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Activity PV 1 2 3 4
A 60,000
B 40,000
C 60,000
D 40,000
Monthly Indirect Cost 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
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A 66,000
B 44,000
C 66,000
D 44,000
Monthly Direct Cost 33,000 77,000 88,000 22,000
Cumulative Monthly Cost 33,000 110,000 198,000 220,000
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A 66,000
B 44,000
C 66,000
D 44,000
Monthly Direct Cost 33,000 77,000 88,000 22,000
Cumulative Monthly Cost 33,000 110,000 198,000 220,000
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Activity PV1 2 3 4
% Complete
AC
A 66,000 100 69,000
B 44,000 60 28,000
C 66,000 40 22,000
D 44,000 10 4,000
123,000
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Activity PV 1 2 3 4 % Complete EV
A 66,000 100 66,000
B 44,000 60 26,400
C 66,000 40 26,400
D 44,000 10 4,400
Total EV 123,200
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BCWP = budgeted cost for work performed
BCWS = budgeted cost for work scheduled
ACWP = actual cost for work performed
Schedule variance = SV = BCWP – BCWS
Schedule performance index = SPI = BCWP / BCWS
Cost variance = CV = BCWP –ACWP
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PV =110,000
EV= 123,200
AC=123,000
SV = 123,200 – 110,0000 = 13,200
SPI = 123,200 / 110,000 0 = 1.120
CV = 123,200 – 123,000 = 200
CPI = 123,200 / 123,000 = 1.001
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EAC1 = ACWP +(BAC – BCWP)
EAC = estimate at completion
ACWP = actual cost of work performed to date
BAC = original budget at completion
BCWP= budgeted cost of work performed to date
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EAC2 = BAC / CPI
where:
CPI = cost performance index
Other terms as above
EAC3 = New estimate as required
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EAC3 = BAC / (CPI * SPI)
where:
CPI = cost performance index
SPI = schedule performance index
EAC4 = New estimate as required
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Contract Price
Total Allocated Budget Negotiated Contract Cost + Authorized Unpriced Work = Contract Budget Baseline
NCC + AUW = CBB
Contract Budget Baseline + Overrun = Over-Target Baseline
CBB + Overrun = OTB
Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB)
Undistributed Budget
Control Accounts
Work Packages
Planning packages
Summary Level Planning
Packages
Management Reserve
Profit/Fees
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Chapter 5
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ISO 8402 Quality Vocabulary
Quality: The totality of features and characteristics of a product or service that bear on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs.
Quality Assurance: All those planned and systematic actions necessary to provide adequate confidence that a product or service will satisfy given requirements for quality.
Continuing evaluation
Verification and audits
Quality Control: The operational techniques and activities that are used to fulfill requirements for quality.
Monitoring a process
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Contractor is contractually responsible for the quality
QA or QC activities performed by other parties in no way invalidate the Contractor’s responsibility for quality.
The QA/QC program will usually be under the direction of the CE.
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Contractor will provide a CQC Plan.
The CE should require early submittal of the CQC Plan before any construction work is begun.
Forbid commencement of any construction prior to approval of the CQC Plan.
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Compliance with the terms of the contract.
Reject both unsatisfactory workmanship and materials.
Rejections must be made immediately upon discovery.
Documentation should include photographs where possible.
Work shall not be directed to stop.
Daily inspection reports.
Off-site inspections.
Inspect all materials delivered to site.
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Ensure that their resources are planned and available.
Follow-on work may proceed.
Cooperate with the Contractor.
Results are distributed to all required parties upon receipt
Reports are to be maintained on file.
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Basic survey controls are to be protected.
Frequent checks on layout to confirm work is accurately installed.
The CI and surveyors should do regular spot checks of measurements and elevations should be made including pile locations; foundation elevations; anchor bolts for structural framing and major equipment; rooms, recesses and closets to receive furniture, fixtures and equipment fabricated off-site; ceiling heights and space for utilities.
Final pay items that can be verified.
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Non-conforming work was brought to attention of Contractor
Corrective action was taken by the Contractor
Corrective action was pre-approved
Corrective action was observed
Minor non-conformances can be verbally notified.
Notification of non-conforming work shall be by means of a Non-Compliance Notice (NCN).
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Chapter 6
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Location (central tendency) Mean (average): is the sum of measurements divided by the number
of measurements.
Median: is the middle number when the data observations are arranged in ascending or descending order.
If the number n of measurements is even, the median is the average of the two middle measurements in the ranking.
Mode: is the measurement that occurs most often in the data set.
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•Note that the median lies between the mode and mean in all skewed distributions.
•If negatively skewed, the median is higher than the mean.
•If positively skewed, the median is lower than the mean.
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Measures of dispersion Range: is the difference between the largest and the smallest
values of the data set. The alternative might be to calculate the average absolute
deviation. However, this measure is rarely used because it is difficult to handle algebraically.
Variance
Standard deviation
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Variance of population
Variance of sample
Standard deviation is the positive square root of the variance.
The population standard deviation is denoted by σ.
The sample standard deviation is denoted by s.
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Relative standing Percentile: the pth percentile is the number with exactly p % of the
measurements fall below it
Z-score: is the number of standard deviations a point is above or below the mean of a set of data.
The population z-score for a measurement x is:
The sample z-score for a measurement x is: s
xxz
)(
)(
xz
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A random variable is a variable whose numerical value is
determined by the outcome of a random experiment.
Discrete probability distribution
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The expected value μ is:μ = E(x) = Σx.p(x)
The population variance is defined as:σ = E(x-μ)2 = Σ(x- μ)2.p(x)
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Risk is:
Enhance opportunities Reduce threats
Risk processes
1. Planning
2. Identification
3. Assessment
4. Analysis
5. Mitigation
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Risk Responsibility ChartTop
managementPM
Management Team
Risk Owner
Plan Risk Management X X X
Identify Risk X X
Perform Qualitative Risk Management X X X
Perform Qualitative Risk Management X X X
Plan Risk Responses X X X
Monitor & Control Risks X X X
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Project
OrganizationalProjectManagement
Technical External Others
Time
Cost
Resource
Quality
Performance
Complexity
Objectives
Fund
Collaboration
Weather
Labor
Politics
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Level Likelihood Expected or actual frequency experienced
1 RareMay only occur in exceptional circumstances; simple process; noprevious incidence of non-compliance
2 UnlikelyCould occur at some time; less than 25% chance of occurring; noncomplex process &/or existence of checks and balances
3 Possible
Might occur at some time; 25 –50% chance of occurring; previousaudits/reports indicate non-compliance; complex process with extensivechecks & balances; impacting factors outside control of organization
4 Likely
Will probably occur in most circumstances; 50-75% chance ofoccurring; complex process with some checks & balances; impactingfactors outside control of organization
5 Almost certain
Can be expected to occur in most circumstances; more than 75%chance of occurring; complex process with minimal checks & balances;impacting factors outside control of organization
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Relative or numerical scales
ObjectiveVery low /
0.05Low / 0.10
Moderate / 0.20
High / 0.40Very
High / 0.80
CostInsignificant
increase <10% increase10-20% increase 20-40% increase
>40% increase
TimeInsignificant
increase <5% increase5-10%
increase 10-20% increase>20%
increase
ScopeBarely noticed
change Minor changeMajor
changeUnacceptable by
sponsor
Product is
useless
Quality Barely noticedApplications
affected
Sponsor approval required
Unacceptable by sponsor
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Stakeholder Tolerance Matrix
Stakeholder Requirements
Tolerances
Time Cost Quality
PMDeliver product as
requested More than
10% Phase IIMore than
5% Phase IIConformance to all specs
Technical
Manager
Passing all QC criteria
More than 20% Phase II
More than 10% Phase II
Conformance to all
limitations
Marketing
ManagerVerify profits
More than 5% Phase II
More than 2% Phase II
Customer acceptance
IT Manager
Customer satisfaction (internal
& external)
More than 20% Phase II
More than 5% Phase II
Positive feedback
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Consequences
Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Extreme
Rare Low Low Low Low Low
Unlikely Low Low Low Medium Medium
Possible Low Low Medium Medium Medium
Likely Low Medium Medium High High
Almost
certainLow Medium Medium High Extreme
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Impact
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1Probability
0.9 0.81 0.63 0.45 0.27 0.09
0.7 0.63 0.49 0.35 0.21 0.07
0.5 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 0.05
0.3 0.27 0.21 0.15 0.09 0.03
0.1 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01
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Probability – Impact Matrix
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High impact
High probability
Low probability
Low impact
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High urgency Low urgency
High severity
Low severity
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WBS
ElementLow Most Likely High
Design $2 $4 $7
Build $35 $45 $60
Verify $5 $7 $10
Total $42 $56 $77
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Probability
Time / Cost
Beta distribution
Optimistic Most likely
Pessimistic
Triangular distribution
Probability
Time / Cost
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+ + =
A B C Sum
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+ + =
A B C Sum
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Activity Min Most Likely
Max Distribution Median(50%)
Design 5.5 7.0 9.7 Trig. 7.3 0.8
Construction 150 190 260 b 205 13.2
Commission 12.0 15.2 19.8 Trig. 15.8 1.2
------------- ------ ------- ------- ------- ------- ----
Total 163.4 210.4 281.4 Simulated 226.2 13.9
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Contingency is an amount added to anestimate or schedule to allow for changes thatexperience shows will likely be required.
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Con
tract
or in
cent
ive
Firm Fixed Price (FFP)
Fixed Price Plus Incentive Fee (FPIF)
Fixed Price with Economic Price Adjustments (FP-EPA)
Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF)
Cost Plus Incentive Fee (CPIF)
Customer influence
Cost Plus Award Fee (CPAF)
Time & Materials
Customer risk
Con
tract
or ri
sk
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Chapter 7
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General Mitigation Processes During Construction
Mitigation of air pollution
Mitigation of water pollution
Mitigation of soil pollution
Mitigation of Construction Noise
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Chapter 8
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Map of site
Plan starting with work and physical sequence
Identify potential problem areas
Planning of site access and circulation
Positioning temporary site services and facilities
Materials storage and handling
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Chapter 9
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Chapter 10
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Chapter 11
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Reduced operating costs
Reduced waste
Reduced liability
Enhanced productivity and learning
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1. What is the Resource Base?
2. What is the Embodied Pollution?
3. What is its Impact in Use?
4. What is its Final Destination?
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Carbon emissions from buildings.
Five times as expensive as the unit cost of heat.
Lack of attention to fan power, pumps, IT and lighting controls.
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Chapter 12
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CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES IN GENERAL
AS-BUILT DRAWINGS AND RECORD DRAWINGS
WARRANTIES, GUARANTEES, AND OPERATING START-UP
CONTRACTOR’S FINAL PAYMENT/FINAL ESTIMATE
FINAL MEASUREMENT BY SURVEYORS
CLOSEOUT DOCUMENTATION
ARCHIVING FILES AND DRAWINGS
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