Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions

Issued 14 July 2014

• Forecast Background– ENSO update– Current State of the global climate– SST Forecasts

• Regional Rainfall Forecast maps

• Summary

CPC ENSO Update

• CPC ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

• Synopsis: The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.

(Updated on July 10, 2014)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

Sea surface temperatures (SST) are above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Above-average SST persisted over South Atlantic.

Current State of the Global Ocean

SST Anomaly (top) for June 2014 and Tendency (bottom) for June minus May

Positive SST anomalies persisted over much of the Indian Ocean.

Changes in equatorial SST anomalies were positive across the Central and East Pacific.

Last Month

SST tendency was positive across the southern Indian Ocean.

SST was above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Current State of the Global Ocean

Positive SST anomalies were present over the southern Indian Ocean.

Weekly SST Anomaly 06 July – 12 July 2014 andTendency for 06 July – 12 July minus 29 June – 05 July 2014

Last Week

Negative SST tendency was observed over eastern Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

Negative SST tendency was observed across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

OLR Anomaly, June 2014

Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) was observed across the Maritime Continent, portions of Central Pacific, Central America and Caribbean regions.

Precipitation was suppressed (orange-red shading) over many parts of India, extending into northern Indian Ocean, over parts of Southwest Pacific and North America.

Low Level 850 mb Wind Anomaly

Anomalous low-level westerly winds were observed across the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic.

Anomalous southerly winds over northern Indian Ocean, turning into southeasterlies over the Arabian Sea may have contributed to the observed below-average rainfall over parts India.

Upper Level 200 mb Wind Anomaly

Easterly wind anomalies were observed in the upper-level (200-hPa) over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, mostly south of the equator..

Time

Longitude

Monitoring the Madden Julian Oscillation

The ensemble GFS forecast indicates weakening of the MJO signal during Week-1 and Week-2.

The IOD index was negative during early June.

Summary of State of the Global Climate in June 2014

• ENSO neutral condition continued with OIv2 NINO3.4 value of 0.5oC in June 2014.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are above-average across the

equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• SST was above-average in the south Atlantic and much of the Indian Oceans. The IOD index was slightly below-average during early July.

• Enhanced precipitation was observed across the Maritime Continent, portions of Central Pacific, Central America and Caribbean regions.

• Precipitation was suppressed over many parts of India, extending into northern Indian Ocean, over parts of Southwest Pacific and North America

- Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle of northern summer.

IRI/CPC NINO3.4 Forecast Plume

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño

JJA 2014 1% 35% 64%

JAS 2014 1% 31% 68%

ASO 2014 1% 27% 72%

SON 2014 1% 23% 76%

OND 2014 1% 21% 78%

NDJ 2014 2% 20% 78%

DJF 2014 3% 22% 75%

JFM 2015 3% 25% 72%

FMA 2015 3% 28% 69%

Global SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Initial Conditions 01 – 08 July 2014

Aug - Oct 2014

Sep - Nov 2014

Oct - Dec 2014

Nov 2014 - Jan 2015

Caution: Ocean areaswith skill less than 0.3are shaded in gray

Dec 2014 - Feb 2015

CFS.v2 predicts warmer than normal SST across equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean.Additional forecast resources are found here:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/index.shtmlhttp://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

Global SST Outlook: NMME (top panel) & IMME (bottom panel)

Aug - Oct 2014 Sep - Nov 2014 Oct - Dec 2014

NMME

IMME

IOD Outlook (source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

The IOD index is expected to remain near-average.

Rainfall Guidance, Africa: NMME, Masked Standardized Anomaly, (01 – 08 July 2014 IC)

Aug - Oct 2014 Sep - Nov 2014

Oct - Dec 2014 Nov 2014 - Jan 2015

The forecasts call for climatology over much of Africa, except for a slight tilt in the odds to favor above-average rainfall over portions of the Gulf of Guinea and Sahel regions, during the Aug-Oct and Sep-Nov seasons. There is also a slight tilt in the odds to favor above average rainfall over southern Somalia and eastern Kenya during the Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan seasons.

Individual model forecasts can be found here:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3.

Rainfall Guidance, CAM and Caribbean: NMME, Masked Standardized Anomaly, (01 – 08 July 2014 IC)

Aug - Oct 2014 Sep - Nov 2014

Oct - Dec 2014 Nov 2014 - Jan 2015

The forecasts call for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over portions of the central America and Caribbean region.

Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3.

Individual model forecasts can be found here:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

Rainfall Guidance, South America: NMME, Masked Standardized Anomaly, (01 – 08 July 2014 IC)

Aug - Oct 2014 Sep - Nov 2014

Oct - Dec 2014 Nov 2014 - Jan 2015

The forecasts call for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall across northern South America. In contrast, there is a slight tilt in the odds to favor above average rainfall over portions of southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina.

Individual model forecasts can be found here:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3.

Rainfall Guidance, Central Asia: NMME, Masked Standardized Anomaly, (01 – 08 July 2014 IC)

Aug - Oct 2014 Sep - Nov 2014

Oct - Dec 2014 Nov 2014 - Jan 2015

The forecasts call for climatology over much of Central Asia, except for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over portions of northwestern India and during Aug to Oct and Oct to Dec seasons.

Individual model forecasts can be found here:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3.

Summary• Neutral ENSO state continued to prevail in June. Above-average Sea surface

temperatures (SST) was observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive SST anomalies persisted over the central southern Indian Ocean.

• The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.

• The masked standardized precipitation anomaly forecasts, call for a slight tilt in the odds to favor above-average over portions of the Gulf of Guinea and Sahel regions, southern Somalia, eastern Kenya. In contrast, forecasts call for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over northern India, and portions of Central America and northern South America.

• Additional forecast resources can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/index.shtmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/