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Learning Objectives• Analyze the theories of why people vote and
apply them to the 2012 Election.
• Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.
• There is an L in Public, but no L in FECA
The Dynamics
• The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend
– 23 Democratic Seats
– 10 Republican Seats
• Democrats have a 53-47 lead
The Results
Democrats Republicans Incumbent Winners 16 5 (71%) Challenger Wins 1 (MA) 0 Open Seats Defended 6 of 7 2 of 4 Open Seats Captured 2 (IN, ME) 1 (Neb)
The Vanishing Center
• Moderates from Both Parties lost or Retired– Brown & Snow– Lieberman and Nelson
• Replaced by more extreme candidates from both parties
Looking ahead to 2014
• The Republicans expected to gain…they didn’t
• Democrats have More exposure
• 7 seats are from states where Obama won
Can the Democrats Expand
• Only 1 GOP Seat from a State where Obama Won
• Will the Republicans be “the stupid party”
The Breakdown
• Lincoln Chafee (RI) is the independent
• 2 races in 2013– Chris Christie (NJ)– Virginia
The Impact of the Election
• Obama coattails did not reach the states
• Battles over the Affordable Care Act emerged
Money is a form of Political Speech
• Buckley v. Valeo
• At the federal level, fundraising is not capped
• Neither are expenditures
The Need for More Legislation BCRA
• Soft Money
• The Role of PACS
• Modernize the contribution amounts
The Rise and Fall of 527’s
• 527’s in 2004
• Why the Decline in 2008– The rise of 501(c)’s
– Recession
– Wisconsin Right to Life vs FEC• Money always finds a better outlet
Campaign Finance in 2008
• The First Billion Dollar Presidential Election
– The Demise of Public Funding in the General Election
– The Rise of the Internet as a fundraising tool
• These produced a president who would spend ¾ of a billion for a job that pays 400,000.
Overall Spending in 2008
• Estimates are at $2.4 billion for the presidency
• $5.3 billion overall on 2008 Elections
Mc Cain and Public Financing• Runs as a reformer, with
BCRA as his primary reform achievement
• McCain’s Decision to accept $84 million hindered his campaign
• He has 60% less money
We Used to have public financing of Presidential Elections
• This gave each candidate an equal amount to spend
• President Obama breaks the trend
• Obama raised more money than all other candidates combined
• Obama raised more than the RNC and DNC combined.
Obama has a huge Financial AdvantageMcCain Obama
Individuals $195,927,301 $656,610,810PACS $1,412,559 $1,280
Federal Funds $84,103,800 $0 Other $78,724,163 $83,450,000Total $360,167,823 $764,843,332
The History of Taking the Money
• John Connolly and Steve Forbes
• Bush in 2000
• Bush and Kerry in 2004
• John Edwards in 2008
Government Money in the Primary
• Federal Money is available in primary and general election
• There are Eligibility Requirements, caps on spending, and caps on raising.
• 22 million from the G, and 55 million cap on spending
Federal Money in the 2012 Primaries
• In 2012, no one accepts it
• Candidate strategy helped end this
Public Funding for General Election
• Each candidate could receive 91 million in public money
• It doesn’t kick in until you are officially nominated
• This money served to reduce campaign costs and remove any potential for corruption