NCIF 11/17/071

Congestion Management:Congestion Management:Leverage & Finance Leverage & Finance

Steve LockwoodSteve Lockwood

PB ConsultPB Consult

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Expansion of Congestion/Loss of ServiceExpansion of Congestion/Loss of Service

Traffic Congestion and Reliability: Trends and Advanced Strategies for Congestion Mitigation FHWA, 2005

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Causes of Performance Loss:Causes of Performance Loss:Not Just CapacityNot Just Capacity

Bottlenecks 40%

Traffic Incidents 25%

Bad Weather 15%

Work Zones 10%

Poor Signal Timing 5%Special Events 5%

Bottlenecks 40%

Traffic Incidents 25%

Bad Weather 15%

Work Zones 10%

Poor Signal Timing 5%Special Events 5%

Growth in Demand

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Why Congestion Management is as Why Congestion Management is as Important as Capacity (Reliability)Important as Capacity (Reliability)

2007 Annual Mobility Report, TAMU

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Congestion Management StrategiesCongestion Management Strategies

1.1. New Capacity (50% of delay today) New Capacity (50% of delay today)

2.2. Systems Operations (Supply Systems Operations (Supply Management): re “incidents” (50% of Management): re “incidents” (50% of delay)delay)

3.3. Pricing (Demand Management): (percent Pricing (Demand Management): (percent of delay depends on extent of of delay depends on extent of applications) applications)

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Three Strategies for CongestionThree Strategies for Congestion

New CapacityNew CapacitySystemsSystems

ManagementManagement

PricingPricing

Facility-by facilityFacility-by facility Network-wideNetwork-wide Facility or Facility or NetworkNetwork

Long cycleLong cycle Short-termShort-term Medium termMedium term

Cover some costs (toll)Cover some costs (toll) Low costLow cost May cover costsMay cover costs

Context-constrainedContext-constrained No impactsNo impacts Policy Policy constrainedconstrained

Low C/ELow C/E High C/EHigh C/E Med C/EMed C/E

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SO&M COMPONENTSO&M COMPONENT CONGESTION/DELAYCONGESTION/DELAY SAFETYSAFETY

1. Ramp Metering1. Ramp Metering -9-11% total delay-9-11% total delay

2. Dynamic Messaging2. Dynamic Messaging -0.5% incident delay-0.5% incident delay

3. Variable Speed Limits3. Variable Speed Limits -5% total delay-5% total delay -5% fatalities-5% fatalities

4. Integrated Corridors4. Integrated Corridors -10% total delay -10% total delay

5. Incident Management5. Incident ManagementDetectionDetection -4.5% incident duration-4.5% incident duration -5% fatalities-5% fatalities

Surveillance CamerasSurveillance Cameras -4.5% incident duration-4.5% incident duration -5% fatalities-5% fatalities

On-Call Service PatrolsOn-Call Service Patrols -25-35% incident duration -25-35% incident duration -10% fatalities-10% fatalities

All CombinedAll Combined Multiplicative reductionMultiplicative reduction -10% fatalities-10% fatalities

6. Weather Management 6. Weather Management -3% total delay (Northern)-3% total delay (Northern)

7. 511 only7. 511 only -3-5% total delay, rural only-3-5% total delay, rural only

8. VII8. VII --12% total delay12% total delay

2. Systems Operations Does Make a 2. Systems Operations Does Make a DifferenceDifference

Future options for the National System of Interstate and Defense Highways, NCHRP, 2007

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Leverage: Long-term BenefitsLeverage: Long-term Benefits(Interstate example)(Interstate example)

Delay (billions of hrs)Delay (billions of hrs) SafetySafetyScenarioScenario CapacityCapacity IncidentIncident TotalTotal SavingsSavings FatalsFatals SavingsSavings

Deployment Deployment TrendsTrends 949949 203203 1,1531,153 -5.6%-5.6% 195K195K -0.7%-0.7%

Aggressive Aggressive DeploymentDeployment

685685 111111 796796 -34.8%-34.8% 179K179K -8.9%-8.9%

Future options for the National System of Interstate and Defense Highways, NCHRP, 2007

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Number of Metropolitan Areas Providing Arterial Travel Time, Speed and Condition I nformation in Real-time to I ncident Management, Freeway Management, Arterial Management or Public Transit Agencies

Number of Metropolitan Areas Surveyed / Returned Survey

Incident Mgt. Freeway Mgt. Arterial Mgt. Public Transit

107 / 106 44 36 32 25

Progress is Slow: Could Use an Progress is Slow: Could Use an IncentiveIncentive

Data Year

% of Deployment

1997 %

1999 14 %

2000 15%

2002 21%

2004 32%

2005 35%

Freeway miles

covered by surveillance

cameras

2006 35%

Data Year

% of Deployment

1997 16%

1999 22%

2000 24%

2002 29%

2004 35%

2005 38%

Freeway miles with real-time

traffic data collection

technologies

2006 38%

Data Year % of Deployment

1997 30%

1999 35%

2000 40%

2002 46%

2004 45%

2005 48%

Freeway miles

covered by on-call service patrols

2006 46%

FHWA Deployment Tracking

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Barriers to Improved OperationsBarriers to Improved Operations

Legacy Culture and organizationsLegacy Culture and organizations

Authorizing EnvironmentAuthorizing Environment

Fragmented jurisdictionsFragmented jurisdictions

Trained PersonnelTrained Personnel

Dedicated Funding (now 1 % national = $1-2B)Dedicated Funding (now 1 % national = $1-2B)

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Funding Methods to Encourage Increased Funding Methods to Encourage Increased Systems OperationsSystems Operations

Planning RequirementsPlanning Requirements Performance Reporting (reduced OversightPerformance Reporting (reduced Oversight Technology investment Higher funding match for Technology investment Higher funding match for

operationsoperations Dedicated program fundsDedicated program funds Off- the top funding by performanceOff- the top funding by performance Service Target-based fundingService Target-based funding Deliberate Interstate PolicyDeliberate Interstate Policy

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3. Pricing :3. Pricing :Tolls Account for 5% of Highway Revenue Tolls Account for 5% of Highway Revenue

Other Dedicated Taxes include dedicated sales and property taxes and value capture revenues

General Fund Revenues include income taxes, property taxes, general sales taxes, other valorem taxes

Last year with data available at all levels of government is 2004. Latest information as of January 2006.

(1) Calendar Year (2) Fiscal Year

Source of Revenue (US$ in billion)

Federal (1)

State (2)

Local (1)

TotalShare per Revenue Source

Motor Fuel Taxes 26.5 29.2 1.1 56.8 43%

Vehicle Fees and Taxes 3.2 16.8 0.9 20.9 16%

Tolls 0 5.6 0.9 6.6 5%

Other Dedicated Taxes 0.3 3.5 11.6 15.4 12%

General Fund Revenues 2.0 7.4 21.7 31.1 24%

Total 32.1 62.5 36.1 130.7 100%

Share per Level of Government 25% 48% 28% 100% 100%

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The Changing Landscape of Highway Finance in the US, Benouaich, PB Consult

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3. Pricing (toll) Projects – How much?3. Pricing (toll) Projects – How much?

Greenfields Opportunities?Greenfields Opportunities? Greenfields feasibility and mixing?Greenfields feasibility and mixing? Non-Greenfields = NHS (where the congestion Non-Greenfields = NHS (where the congestion

is)is)• Conversion Acceptability (HOT path)?Conversion Acceptability (HOT path)?

• Constraints where lanes additions involvedConstraints where lanes additions involved

Where the Action is: The Nation Highway System Where the Action is: The Nation Highway System Network = 162K miles and 45% of VMT (28% Network = 162K miles and 45% of VMT (28% is Interstate) is Interstate)

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Current Status of Toll Project Current Status of Toll Project DevelopmentDevelopment

Not including TTC

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Current Status of Toll Project Current Status of Toll Project DevelopmentDevelopment

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The Next Decade: Toll Role?The Next Decade: Toll Role?

Current toll revenues $7BCurrent toll revenues $7B Current highway revenues $140BCurrent highway revenues $140B

Trend based Trend based total expenditure for new capacitytotal expenditure for new capacity $30-$40 (higher $30-$40 (higher than trend)than trend)

Trend-based Trend-based toll expenditures for new capacitytoll expenditures for new capacity $8-$10B $8-$10B (exclusive of concession payments)(exclusive of concession payments)

Large Growth states 50%-plusLarge Growth states 50%-plus

Trend-based toll Trend-based toll revenues revenues based on Trend 15-17B (exclusive based on Trend 15-17B (exclusive of concession payments)of concession payments)

Trend-based total Trend-based total revenues revenues $165-$170B$165-$170B

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Barriers to Toll/Pricing DevelopmentBarriers to Toll/Pricing Development

Resistance to ConversionResistance to Conversion Need for network level developmentNeed for network level development Concern for network effects (diversion)Concern for network effects (diversion) Consideration of Equity (dual system?)Consideration of Equity (dual system?) Stakeholder/User control (state, local)Stakeholder/User control (state, local) Politics of excess funds investmentPolitics of excess funds investment Credibility of owner/manager with major fundsCredibility of owner/manager with major funds

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Methods to Encourage Greater Use of Methods to Encourage Greater Use of Pricing for Congestion ManagementPricing for Congestion Management

Congestion management targets (to Congestion management targets (to foster pricing)foster pricing)

Interstate Conversion ForgivenessInterstate Conversion Forgiveness Service Target funding with incentive to Service Target funding with incentive to

meetmeet Credit enhancement, etc.Credit enhancement, etc. Aggressive match baitAggressive match bait Deliberate Interstate PolicyDeliberate Interstate Policy

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Vision: Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration Vision: Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration Mixes VMT pricing and Advanced OperationsMixes VMT pricing and Advanced Operations

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CharacteristicCharacteristic 2020thth Century Century 2121stst Century CenturyOrg. ModelOrg. Model Gov’t. DepartmentGov’t. Department Authority (enterprise)Authority (enterprise)

Management styleManagement style Bureaucratic, stable Bureaucratic, stable EntrepreneurialEntrepreneurial

MissionMission Develop systemDevelop system Meet service expectationsMeet service expectations

ResourcesResources Tax politicsTax politics User fees/capital marketUser fees/capital market

Consumer signalsConsumer signals Indirect onlyIndirect only Organized customers/pricesOrganized customers/prices

FocusFocus System DevelopmentSystem Development Systems OperationsSystems Operations

ServiceshedServiceshed Political jurisdictionPolitical jurisdiction Consumer orbit/marketConsumer orbit/market

PartnersPartners Legislative authorityLegislative authority Users, MarketsUsers, Markets

Perf. CriteriaPerf. Criteria On budget/schedule On budget/schedule Customer satisfactionCustomer satisfaction

TechnologyTechnology Procurement-drivenProcurement-driven Best availableBest available

Needed: New Institutional EvolutionNeeded: New Institutional Evolution