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CONFIDENTIAL
Important messages to an uncertain market
October 23, 2008
2
CONFIDENTIAL
Roadmap
Investors face unprecedented uncertainty
USS Co., Ltd. has a strong opportunity
Important messages to give investors conviction
How does Taiyo Pacific Partners support management?
3
CONFIDENTIAL
Investor psychology in market cycles…
We are here
Market Phase BottomEarly Stage Recovery
Mid-Stage Bull Market
Peak of Bull Market
Bear Market
Asset PriceMovement
FundamentalsImproving but
ignoredSolid underlying
performanceSweet summer of
growth
Optimistic, Overconfidence,
Long-duration projections
Overawareness of deteriorating conditions
ValuationAttractive, but few
takersAbundant bargains
Willingness to pay up
Revised models justify streching
Shocked recognition of
outlandish prices paid
PsychologyExhausion,
disbelief, and demoralization
Doubt, reflection, and conversion
Faith, hope and charity
Euphoria, greed, and extrapolation
Fear, panic, and loathing
Source: David Darst, Global Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley
4
CONFIDENTIAL
Market sentiment is extremely low right now
University of Michigan market sentiment index worst in three decades
Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, measuring implied volatility of index options for S&P 500 over the next 30 days.
5
CONFIDENTIAL
Equity investors are panicked
“Market declines are accelerating!Where can I invest???”
“Market declines are accelerating!Where can I invest???”
“In two months, no more Fannie, Freddie, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch,
Northern Rock, Washington Mutual, or
Wachovia. Record bailout of AIG. Who’s
next?”
“In two months, no more Fannie, Freddie, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch,
Northern Rock, Washington Mutual, or
Wachovia. Record bailout of AIG. Who’s
next?”
“How long will a
recession last?
“How long will a
recession last?
“USD 700bn bailout is four times bigger than the Japanese bad loan
problem. Only the beginning?”
“USD 700bn bailout is four times bigger than the Japanese bad loan
problem. Only the beginning?”
“Almost US 45bn dollars were pulled from US
mutual funds two weeks ago. Should I be holding
stocks?”
“Almost US 45bn dollars were pulled from US
mutual funds two weeks ago. Should I be holding
stocks?”
“World stocks lostJPY 2,000 trillion in one year—a value equal to 40% of world GDP!”
“World stocks lostJPY 2,000 trillion in one year—a value equal to 40% of world GDP!”
6
CONFIDENTIAL
Investors’ immediate priorities
Minimize losses!
Find earnings performance!
Reduce volatility!
7
CONFIDENTIAL
Be the company that satisfies these new priorities
We believe that USS can
attract new investment in the current market
and
retain that investment after the market improves.
Let’s see why…
8
CONFIDENTIAL
Roadmap
Investors face unprecedented uncertainty
USS Co., Ltd. has a strong opportunity
Important messages to give investors conviction
How does Taiyo Pacific Partners support management?
9
CONFIDENTIAL
A sensitive market favors defensive stocks…
Sector Return vs TOPIX relative (last 3 months)
(25.0%) (20.0%) (15.0%) (10.0%) (5.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Global Service
Steal & Machinary
Electronic Machinary & PrecisionInstruments
Materials
Auto
Construction & Real Estate
Fiance
Communication
Domestic Service
Defensive
Source: Bloomberg
10
CONFIDENTIAL
USS has many characteristics of a defensive stock
High earnings visibility!
Low share price volatility! Beta of
0.74!
Attractive risk-return profile! Minimal exposure
to yen appreciation!
Let’s look at these…
11
CONFIDENTIAL
USS has outperformed, earnings visibility is very good
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Gulliver International Co. Ltd. (7599-JP) 39.0 USS Co. Ltd. (4732-JP) 153.8
Relative Strength vs. TOPIX 1st Section17-Oct-2007 to 17-Oct-2008 (Daily)17-Oct-2007=100; Local
Data Source: Exshare ©FactSet Research Systems 2008
10/15/08 downward revision
3/17/08 Downward
revision
9/16/08 downward
revision
1/29/08 upward
revision in dividend
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Gulliver International Co. Ltd. (7599-JP) 39.0 USS Co. Ltd. (4732-JP) 153.8
Relative Strength vs. TOPIX 1st Section17-Oct-2007 to 17-Oct-2008 (Daily)17-Oct-2007=100; Local
Data Source: Exshare ©FactSet Research Systems 2008
10/15/08 downward revision
3/17/08 Downward
revision
9/16/08 downward
revision
1/29/08 upward
revision in dividend
12
CONFIDENTIAL
USS risk-return profile is very attractive
Source: FactSet. Relative return: TSE 33 sector index annualized return relative to TOPIX 1st section over the last one year (October 2007 to October 2008). Risk: measured by standard deviation during the same period
Relative Returns / Risk to TOPIX
Air Transportation
Pulp & Paper
Rubber Products
Construction
Other Financing Business
Other Products
Wholesale Trade
Oil & Coal Products
Iron & Steel
USS
Electric Power & Gas
Land TransportationAgriculture
Foods
Pharmaceutical
Retail Trade
Warehousing
Information & Communication
Banks
Services
Metal ProductsChemicals
Transportation Equipment
Precision
Electric Appliances
Mining
Machinery
Glass & Ceramics Products
Nonferrous Metals
(20.0%)
(15.0%)
(10.0%)
(5.0%)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Risk (%)
Ret
urn
(%
)
13
CONFIDENTIAL
USS is immune to yen appreciation
USS is domestic-oriented and free from currency fluctuation
TSE 33 Sectors Sales by Region
49%
59%
69%
71%
73%
74%
74%
84%
88%
95%
90%
27%
11%
11%
5%
0%
7%
9%
9%
5%
3%
11%
10%
8%
7%
9%
2%
7%
1%
0%
2%
7%
15%
8%
13%
3%
12%
3%
3%
3%
0%
6%
5%
4%
4%
15%
5%
7%
3%
4%
0%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Auto
Elec.Machinery & Pres.Instruments
Steel & Machinery
Materials
Fiance
Global Services
Defensives
Domestic Services
Construction & Real Estate
Communication
USS
Japan US EU Asia Other
(*)
(*): USS 10K 10Q states that oversase sales is less than 10%. Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange
14
CONFIDENTIAL
Not just defensive: USS creates shareholder value!
• Investors require a cost of equity value over 9.0% to beat the opportunity cost of owning a stock
• The aggregate ROE value for TOPIX is lower than the cost of equity, which means that most companies on TOPIX destroy shareholder value
•USS’ ROE exceeds the cost of equity, which means USS creates shareholder value
Shareholder value creation
8.90%
12.80%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
USS TOPIX 1st
ROE (%)
Cost of capital 9.0%
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Based on risk free rate of 2% and equity risk premium 5%
15
CONFIDENTIAL
Roadmap
Investors face unprecedented uncertainty
USS Co., Ltd. has a strong opportunity
Important messages to give investors conviction
How does Taiyo Pacific Partners support management?
16
CONFIDENTIAL
This interim report is a critical part of USS’ opportunity
17
CONFIDENTIAL
Affirm USS’ credibility
• In the current volatility, investors are looking at the management of a company to decide whether the business is reliable.
“Investors will shift away from models, quantitative or otherwise, and back to human beings, where their level of understanding is greater.”
– Quote from “Pinning Down Shape of New-look Financial World,” Financial Times, by Michael Gordon of Fidelity International
• As a result, how you present your results will give investors an important message about the message you are giving.
18
CONFIDENTIAL
Affirm USS’ credibility
• Presentation tips to show USS is reliable:
– Be factual• Emphasize that investors have the data needed to evaluate
the company—this helps investors return to USS’ strong fundamentals.
– Give the bad along with the good• Of course, clear disclosure of potentially negative news
helps investors feel that there are no surprises.• USS’ “negatives” are not that bad—contract completions
may have fallen but earnings are much more stable than alternatives.
• If needed, articulate a plan of action to make a negative item better at the time it is disclosed—help investors see management is in control of the situation.
19
CONFIDENTIAL
Affirm USS’ credibility
• Presentation tips to show USS is reliable:
– Polish up your Q&A answers
• The current market situation could mean you get unusual questions from investors, analysts or the press.
• Have positive answers to questions related to any impacts on the company from credit crunch or the coming recession.
– Emphasize the company’s strong track record re hitting guidance.
20
CONFIDENTIAL
Emphasize USS’ strengths
• Highlight the strength of USS’ balance sheet and lack of debt
• Point out company’s high profitability – OPM >37%; EBITDA margin >47%
• Without naming names, show how the company’s market position and fee model will be a strong advantage even in a weaker economy
• Point out strong dividend policy, record of buybacks returning value to investors
And, of course, you should…
21
CONFIDENTIAL
Emphasize USS’ strengths
• Point out the defensive characteristics of your stock…
– Outperformance in a down market, high earnings visibility
– Attractive risk-return profile
– Minimal exposure to yen appreciation
… and reasons to stay invested after a defensive position is no longer necessary.
– Shareholder value creation!
22
CONFIDENTIAL
Be proactive
• Media and analysts are a microphone. Take control of the story to make sure that it amplifies what you want investors to hear
– Market confidence can be made or broken by analysts. Stay in touch with analysts to explain any data as needed
– Positive news is a way to recruit additional analysts
• At the same time, do not rely on analysts to get out the message
– Continue to make information available online in Japanese and English
– If needed, get in touch with your largest investors if anything needs explaining
23
CONFIDENTIAL
Be proactive
• If needed, refute rumors quickly!
• As some TOPIX companies this month faced one-day drops in share price of over 20%, silence is death in the presence of negative or inaccurate news.
24
CONFIDENTIAL
Long-term vision
• Help investors to remember that there is a bright future amid the current turmoil—talk about long-term goals and your mid-term planning to achieve them
• Show the company’s strong, stable performance record. Help investors to feel comfortable with staying put, and with building or adding to a position
25
CONFIDENTIAL
Long-term vision
“Good company, but limited growth prospects suggest shares are expensive.”
– Which broker analyst said this? Noboru Terashima at ABN-AMRO—in September 1999, just after your IPO
– This growth question has lingered virtually throughout your history as a publicly traded company
• Although this is less pressing than immediate questions about earnings stability, point out how the company has defied skepticism and that USS is actively looking at ways to further expand revenue
– This shows USS is not merely a defensive stock, but one which has growth prospects also!
• Is there any way this crisis gives USS a strategic benefit? Explain!
26
CONFIDENTIAL
Roadmap
Investors face unprecedented uncertainty
USS Co., Ltd. has a strong opportunity
Important messages to give investors conviction
How does Taiyo Pacific Partners support management?
27
CONFIDENTIAL
Taiyo Pacific Partners
• Taiyo Pacific Partners has USD 2 billion assets under management and an operating history exceeding five years.
• We focus only on public and private equity in Japan.
• Our staff features 25 multi-lingual investmentprofessionals with diversebackgrounds in sell-side equity research, portfolio management,banking, consulting, accounting and law.
• More than half of our professionals are Japanese nationals.
28
CONFIDENTIAL
How Taiyo thinks about maximizing corporate value
1. Business Value• Sales growth• Margin improvement• Good investments
2. Reputation Value • Proactive IR• Shareholder friendly• Good disclosure
3. Financial Value• Leverage effect• Optimal structure• Capital Mgmt
Three sources of value to maximize
29
CONFIDENTIAL
We help companies enhance success in all three areas
Business
- Strategic analysis
- Market intelligence on competitors
- Corporate governance successes
- M&A and growth
Investor Relations
- Telling the story.
- Building excitement.
- Attracting sell-side analysts.
- Effective materials.
- Effective communications.
- Roadshows.
Financial
- How to optimize capital structure to maintain flexibility for business decisions.
- Cost of capital. - Which financial
metrics make sense for internal management purposes.
30
CONFIDENTIAL
We are very interested in USS’ business
• Two of our three partners have experience as expert consultants to the auto industry
• We have been doing our own research to see if we can provide data that USS can use
• We welcome a chance to present our findings to you in the near future
CONFIDENTIAL
We look forward to working with you!
CONFIDENTIAL
DisclaimerTaiyo Pacific Partners LP (“TPP”) does not make any warranty, express or implied a) as to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this report, or b) as to the results of relying on any information contained herein.
In no case shall TPP have any liability to any person in respect of any loss, claim, damages, costs or liability arising from reliance on any information contained in this report or use of this report.
Copyright: This report is protected by U.S., Japanese and other copyright laws. Information contained herein may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or broadcasted without the prior written consent of TPP.