Conducting Research to Improve Equity in Higher Education Attainment

COLLEGE OF EDUCATION’S 10TH ANNUAL DEAN’S SYMPOSIUM ON INCREASING MOMENTUM FOR

POSTSECONDARY STUDENT SUCCESS FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY

SEPTEMBER 26, 2016

Conducting Research to Improve Equity in Higher Education Attainment

Laura W. Perna

Executive Director, Penn AHEAD James S. Riepe Professor

@lauraperna1

Why Do We Need to Improve Equity in Higher Education

Attainment?

Improving Higher Education Attainment Is One of the Most Important Issues of Our Time

Aninvestmentinknowledgepaysthebestinterest.BenjaminFranklin

Higher Education is Increasingly Important to Individual AND Societal Well-Being

Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (2010). Help wanted. Washington, DC: Georgetown Center for Workforce and the Economy.

Salaries Increase with Educational Attainment

Available Jobs in the U.S. Increasingly Require Postsecondary Education

Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (2013). Recovery: Job growth and education requirements through 2020. Washington, DC: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce .

72%

16%

44%

29%

41%32%

36% 35%

NomorethanHighSchool Bachelor'sormore

1973 1992 2010 2020

Higher Education Attainment in U.S. Has Fallen Behind Other Nations

Percent of 25 to 34 year olds with a type a tertiary degree: 2000 and 2012

Source: Cahalan, M. & Perna, L. W. (2015). Indicators of Higher Education Equity in the United States. The Pell Institute and Penn AHEAD.

The U.S. Cannot Achieve Required Attainment Without Closing Gaps

What are Gaps in Attainment?

15% 22%

37%

60%

Lowest quartile Second quartile Third quartile Highest quartile SocioeconomicStatus

Source: Cahalan, M., Perna, L.W., Yamashita, M., Ruiz, R., & Franklin, K. (2016). Indicators of Higher Education Equity in the United States. Washington, DC: The Pell Institute and Penn AHEAD.

Bachelor’s Degree Attainment of 2002 10th Graders by 2012

College Enrollment Rates Increase with Family Income

Source: Baum, S., Ma, J., & Payea, K. (2013). Education Pays. Washington, DC: College Board.

Postsecondary Enrollment Rates of Recent High School Graduates by Family Income, 1987 to 2012

Among Those Who Enroll: Completion Rates Increase With Family Income

6

26

35

44

58

52

38

31

27

20

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Independent

LowestquarCle

2ndquarCle

3rdquarCle

HighestquarCle

Bachelor's Associate's CerCficate Enrolled Notenrolled

Source: Baum, S., Ma, J., & Payea, K. (2013). Education Pays. Washington, DC: College Board.

Outcomes by Family Income Five Years After First Enrolling, 2003-04

Educational Attainment Varies by Race / Ethnicity

54%

34%

18%

10%

60%

40%

23%

15%

Asians Whites Blacks Hispanics

2000 2012

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2013). Digest of Education Statistics. Washington, DC: Author.

Percentage of adults age 25 to 29 with at least a bachelor’s degree, 2012

Educational Attainment is Lower for Men than Women Regardless of Racial / Ethnic Group

55%

36%

19% 12%

64%

44%

27%

17%

Asian White Black Hispanic

Male Female

Source: Census Bureau, Quick Facts, 2009-2013.

Percentage of adults age 25 to 29 with at least a bachelor’s degree, 2012

The Racial/Ethnic Diversity of The U.S. Population Is Increasing

Source: WICHE (2012). Knocking on the college door. Boulder, CO: Author.

White

Hispanic

Black

Asian American Indian

Composition of U.S. Public High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, 2008-09 (Actual) and 2009-10 to 2027-28 (Projected)

As Is The Composition of Public High School Graduates in Florida

53% 47% 42%

23% 27% 32%

21% 21% 21%

3% 4% 5%

2008-09 (actual) 2014-15 (projected) 2019-20 (projected)

Asian

Black

Hispanic

White

Source: WICHE (2012). Knocking on the College Door.

What Do We Know From Research

About How to Improve Equity in Higher Education

Attainment?

Educational Attainment is a Longitudinal Process

College Enrollment Decisions: Students Weigh the Benefits and Costs

Source: Derived from Perna, L. W. (2006). Studying college choice: A proposed conceptual model. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher Education: Handbook of theory and research, Vol. XXI .

Factors That Influence Benefit-Cost Calculations

Source: Derived from Perna, L. W. (2006). Studying college choice: A proposed conceptual model. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher Education: Handbook of theory and research, Vol. XXI (pp. 99-157). Springer.

Improving Higher Education Attainment Requires Attention to the Context

Source: Derived from Perna, L. W. (2006). Studying college choice: A proposed conceptual model. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher Education: Handbook of theory and research, Vol. XXI (pp. 99-157). Springer.

ToImproveEquity:AddresstheSystemicandStructuralBarriers

ThatLimitOpportunityandOutcomes

How Do We Conduct Research to Inform

Policy and Practice?

What Does a Program of Research on Equity in Attainment Look Like?

An Evolving Program of Research on Improving Equity in Higher Education Attainment

One Example: The Role of State Policy In Closing Gaps in Attainment

Context Matters: Educational Attainment Varies By State

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55% M

assa

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C

onne

ctic

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New

Ham

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Col

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orth

Dak

ota

Min

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New

Jer

sey

Mar

ylan

d N

ew Y

ork

Verm

ont

Virg

inia

H

awai

i W

ashi

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hode

Isla

nd

Illin

ois

Kan

sas

Neb

rask

a U

tah

Sout

h D

akot

a Io

wa

Cal

iforn

ia

Ore

gon

Wis

cons

in

Penn

sylv

ania

U

S M

onta

na

Del

awar

e N

orth

Car

olin

a M

aine

Fl

orid

a A

lask

a G

eorg

ia

Wyo

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ichi

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Mis

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i O

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Idah

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uth

Car

olin

a A

rizon

a N

ew M

exic

o In

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a Te

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Ala

bam

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klah

oma

Tenn

esse

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Ken

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irgin

ia

% Adults with College Degrees (2008)

Annual % Increase Needed to Meet 55% Goal by 2020

Georgia National Average

Illinois

Texas

Washington Maryland

Florida

Source: Kelly (2010)

What Did We Do?

•  Georgia•  Illinois•  Maryland•  Texas• Washington

States

•  Documents•  Reports•  ExisCngdata•  Interviews

DataSources•  Casestudyreports

•  Cross-caseanalysis

Products

Perspec7ve GA IL WA TX MD

StateHigherEducaConLeaders 18 13 22 9 14

StatePoliCcalLeaders 4 5 8 10 4

InsCtuConalLeaders 6 6 8 8 4

K-12andP-16/P-20EducaConLeaders 4 1 2 1 1

Business/Research/PhilanthropicLeaders 1 1 4 2 1

Others 3 3 4 4 1

TOTAL 36 29 48 34 25

WhoDidWeInterview?

Varying Demographics

State %Blacks

%Hispanics ProjectedGrowthHispanicH.S.Grads2005-

2022

Georgia 29.6 8.3 711%

Maryland 28.7 7.2 372%

Total–U.S. 12.1 15.8 88%

Illinois 14.4 15.3 70%

Texas 11.2 36.9 79%

Washington 3.3 10.3 152%

Racial/EthnicDiversityofthePopula7on:2009

U.S.CensusBureau,TableC03002,“HispanicorLa7nooriginbyrace,”universe:totalpopula7on;dataset:2009AmericanCommunitySurvey,h[p://fac\inder.census.gov,accessedOct.1,2010;WesternInterstateHigherEduca7onCommission,KnockingattheCollegeDoor,datafiles,h[p://www.wiche.edu/knocking/data,accessedDec.1,2009.

Varying Systems of Higher Education

State Public4-year

Public2-year

PrivateNFP PrivateFor-Profit

Illinois 15% 60% 13% 12%

Texas 30% 55% 6% 9%

Washington 38% 51% 7% 4%

Maryland 36% 49% 9% 6%

Total–U.S. 31% 44% 13% 12%

Georgia 41% 37% 10% 12%

Distribu7onofTotal12-monthUnduplicatedUndergraduateHeadcountbySector:2008-09

Source:IntegratedPostsecondaryEducaConDataSystem(IPEDS).2009enrollmentsurvey.hdp://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/login.aspx

Findings from The Attainment Agenda: Five Unique State Stories

•  Perpetuating Disparity Georgia

•  A Story of Decline Illinois

•  Much Accomplished, Much at Stake Maryland

•  Hard Choices Ahead Texas

•  State Policy Leadership Vacuum Washington

Source: Perna, L.W. & Finney, J.E. (2014). The Attainment Agenda: State Policy Leadership for Higher Education. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Emergent Conceptual Model: How State Policy Influences Attainment

Source: Perna, L.W. & Finney, J.E. (2014). The Attainment Agenda: State Policy Leadership for Higher Education. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. .

How State Policy Influences Attainment: Three Categories of Policies

Source: Perna & Finney (2014).

Another Example: Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)

Our Study: 16 Penn Coursera Courses Offered Between June 2012 and July 2013

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

ParCcipantsbyCourse

Users

Registrants

Starters

AcCveUsers

Persisters

“Sequential Flow” As Measured as Share of Registrants Accessing at Least One Lecture in Each Course Module

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Module1 Module2 Module3 Module4 Module5 Module6 Module7 Module8 Module9Module10Module11Module12

AxisTitle

ADHD

Calculus

Cardiac

Design

GamificaCon

HealthPolicy

MicroEcon

ModPo

Myth

Networks

RaConing

Vaccines

Music

Source:Perna,L.W.,Ruby,A.,Boruch,R.,Wang,N.,Scull,J.,Ahmad,S.,&Evans,C.(2014).MovingthroughMOOCs.Educa9onalResearcher,43,421-432

A Third Example: College Promise Programs

Many emerging initiatives nationwide Place-based scholarship programs •  Kalamazoo Promise State-based free-tuition programs •  Tennessee Promise Other programs with promise label

“Promise” Program vs. “Student Financial Aid” Program

108 “Promise” Programs

308 State-Sponsored Aid Programs

Other Scholarship

Program 30 3

Source:Perna,L.W.,Leigh,E.,&Ruiz,R.(2016,June).Growth,scopeandimpactofcollegepromiseprograms.KeynotepresentaContoConferenceonDesigningSustainableFundingforCollegePromiseIniCaCves,EducaConalTesCngService,Princeton,NJ.

Many Remaining Questions About College Promise Programs

How Do We Conduct Research to Inform

Policy and Practice?

Value of Multiple Theoretical Perspectives and Methodological Approaches

Connecting Research and Policy / Practice: An Iterative and Reciprocal Process

Policy/PracCceResearch

Source:Perna,L.W.(2016,January).Connec9ngresearchandstatepolicy:Implica9onsforacademicresearchersandintermediaryorganiza9ons.Indianapolis,IN:LuminaFoundaCon,LuminaIssuePapers.

Mechanisms for Promoting Connections

Association for the Study of Higher Education (ASHE) Collaborations •  Council of Independent Colleges •  NAFSA: International Educators •  National Association for Student Financial Aid Administrators •  Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Education •  Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education Financial support from: William T. Grant Foundation

Many Pieces in Conducting Research to Inform Policy and Practice that Improves Equity

Improving Equity in Higher Education Opportunity and Outcomes

Must Be A Priority of Policy, Practice, and Research

Contact Us: —

Laura W. Perna University of Pennsylvania

Alliance for Higher Education and Democracy

@PennAHEAD @lauraperna1