CONCEPTS Regional Ocean Forecast System Developmentgodae-data/Symposium/GOV-presentations/… · CONCEPTS Regional Ocean Forecast System Development . GODAE OceanView Symposium,

GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013


Fraser Davidson DFO, NAFC

G. Smith, Y. Lu, D. Dumont, B. Tremblay, J-F Lemieux, H. Ritchie, F Roy,Y Liu, F Dupont,, C Beaudoin, Mathieu Chevalier, G Garric, C-E Testut, P Pellerin and the rest of the CONCEPTS Team

Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada

Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada

Science Branch, Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada Mercator-Océan, Toulouse, France

www.godae-oceanview.org

CONCEPTS Regional Ocean Forecast System Development


Canada requires regional ice-ocean-atmosphere forecasts and information services for:

• Improvements to regional/global weather forecasts days/seasons are expected.

• Canadian Ice Service & Canadian Coast Guard Ice Operations

• Fisheries and aquaculture management • Interpreting biological observations • Regional climate change impacts • Risk assessments for extreme events • Emergency response: Search and Rescue,

dispersion of pollutants • Offshore Oil and Gas Industry. Fog prediction,

Pack Ice and Iceberg Management, Deep Water Riser Vibration Prediction, Site planning, Deep well blow outs


Outline

• Overall Goal

• From RIPS to RIOPS

• RIOPS

– Tuning (ice – ocean model)

– Validation

– Atmospheric coupling and high res winds

– Ice model improvements

• Downscalling

• Summary/COSS Themes/Outlook


METAREA Integrated Marine Prediction System

• Coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean-wave-snow model

– GEM (15km)

– NEMO-CICE-WW3 (3-8km) – Tides, semi-lagrangian scheme, JFNK

solver for CICE, wave-ice coupling

– 3-5 day ensemble forecasts

• Expected implementation:

– March 2015

GEM REPS

15km

CREG12


Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS)

• 5km North American grid

• 3DVar Ice analysis

– SSMI, SSMIS, ASCAT

– CIS daily charts, image analyses, lake analyses

• CICE4.1 Ice model

– Forced by CMC RDPS

• 48hr forecasts at:

– 0Z, 6Z, 18Z, 24Z

• Running at CMC spring 2013


Regional Ice Prediction System Description


Evaluation of Sea Ice Forecasts • Comparison with IMS Analyses:

– Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (NOAA-NIC)

– Daily Northern Hemisphere ice analyses on 4km grid (ice/water)

– Assimilates : AVHRR, GOES, SSM/I • Evaluation Methodology:

– Interpolate model forecasts to IMS grid – Calculate contingency table values using 0.4 ice

concentration cutoff – Bin results on 1° lat-lon grid IMS

Ice

IMS

No ice

Forecast

Ice

Hit ice False

Alarm

Forecast

No ice

Miss Hit water


Evaluation of Sea Ice Forecasts

• A perfect forecast would have PCT=1 and Bias=1

• RIPS shows better statistics than persistence

– Esp. In summer and fall

– Over most of domain

Daily forecasts for 2010, 48hr lead time

Better Worse

Better Worse


Calibration of ice strength (P*)

• Evaluation of ice drift against Arctic Buoys (IABP)

• Forecasts from 5km Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS) – CICE stand-alone, daily 48hr

forecasts at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z • Optimize P* (Hibler, 1979):

– Best value: ~12.5 kN/m2

• Tuning compensates errors in thickness

Lemieux et al. (QJRMS, submitted)


Calibration of ice strength (P*)

• Evaluation of ice drift against Arctic Buoys (IABP)

• Optimized P* gives best representation of stoppage events

Lemieux et al. (QJRMS, submitted)

Free drift

Rigid ice Optimal

parameter stoppage

events

P* = 0 Nm-2

P* = 12500 Nm-

2 P* = 27000 Nm-

2


Evaluation of Sea Ice Forecasts

• Only evaluate points where the 3DVAR analysis changes by more than 10%

– Focus on ice edge and areas of confidence in analysis

• RIPS has lower RMS than persistence for all months

Daily 48hr forecasts for 2010


Regional Ice-Ocean Prediction System

• Couple RIPS to NEMO

– 3-8km Arctic/N.Atl configuration (CREG12)

• SAM2 ocean assimilation (SEEK) with 3DVar ice assimilation

• Expected experimental implementation for March 2014

– Analysis provided by GIOPS SAM2 + ice/sst assim

– RIOPS Analysis 2015


Regional Ice-Ocean Prediction System

• Domains ORCA grid favours higher resolution in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

• configuration (CREG12)

• SAM2 ocean assimilation (SEEK) with 3DVar ice assimilation

• Expected experimental implementation for March 2014


Model Tuning, Improvements Successive Hindcast Experiments


Validation: Sea ice

Summer 2005 ice concentration

comparison using the Global

Ocean Sea Ice Concentration Time

Series (EUMETSAT), illustrating

the accumulation of model ice in

the southern Beaufort Sea.

However total sea ice extent is

reasonably compared with the

satellite radiometer record


Validation: Sea ice

Thickness estimates for

Feb/Mar 2006 from IceSat

data (Kwok et al., 2009) and

the model. This shows that

the model displaces the

thick ice toward the

southern Beaufort &

Chukchi Seas.

Model comparison with a

moored ULS in the

Beaufort Gyre, using ice

thickness category

distribution, also shows the

model ice to be too thick.

Thickness (m)


Tides

• Largest tides in world

– Ungava Bay

• Uncertainty in bottom topography in some areas

– Hudson Straight, Fox Basin


NABD

NABD – ETOPO1

Lack of good bathymetry observations Hudson Bay/straight + Fox Basin


Diff in M2 magnitude

Improve M2 Tide Solution by Refining Bathymetry

CREG12 solution (T1)


CREG12 Hindcast 6 • CREG12-CICE with

tides

– NEMO CONCEPTS_3.0.0+CICE4.0

– ice volume issue


Validation: Sea surface height

Mean dynamic topography from

satellite altimetry (Farrell et al,

2012)

Mean sea surface height from

model CREG12-H5 shows

good agreement on large scale

features e.g. the Beaufort

Gyre.


Validation: Temperature

Mean temperature profiles

from moored profilers show

the model misses the warm

Pacific layer (~60m) in the

central Beaufort Sea – but not

on the shelf.

Comparison of model

temperatures with CTD

measurements at ~60m shows

this cold bias extends across

the deep Beaufort Sea.


Impact of A-O-I Coupling for Beaufort Sea 10 Day Forecasts

Coupled – uncoupled forecast differences for 2008-01-02

Difference in ice fraction Difference in 2m temperature

• GEM 33km coupled to NEMO-LIM 1/4° (15km)


Impact of atmospheric resolution on coastal locations

15 km wind resolution 2.5 km wind resolution


Impact of atmospheric resolution on wind strength near land

2.5 km wind resolution vs 15 km wind resolution


Ice Model Improvements • Improved Ice Models for

Forecast and Analysis system

– Large computers

– Better modelling of ice stresses

• Improving ice lead forecast prediction in Beaufort

• Important for coupling with Atmospheric Forecasts


Landfast Ice Variability Beaufort Sea


Landfast Sea Ice Variability

Shelagsk Cape


form of ice (FA) variable of the egg code is a valid prospect for assessing wave-ice interactions. discriminate MIZ polygons from digital ice charts. Selected polygons are connected along the ice edge and the average width of the MIZ is calculated from the skeleton obtained from thinning operations

Detecting Marginal Ice zone


Adding information on Marginal Ice Zone

• Exchange between wave and ice model

• Determining flow bloc size and width of Marginal Ice Zone


New Data Set

• Canadian Ranger Ocean Watch Program (CROW)

Field Program

Feb-March 2013

Initially for climate monitoring

Adapting to real time data contribution to ocean-ice prediction system


Ice Buoys and SVP


Towards Pan Canadian 1/36 Regional model

Downscaling project for building 1/36 regional zoom funded by oil industry (1.4 M$) Experimental implementation in operations CREG36 East (2015): CREG36 Pan Canadian ~2018


Comparison of 2-year Run results with CREG 1/12 °

Hincast5 and Drifters

CREG 1/12 ° (2003 annual mean surface currents) NFS 1/36° (2003 mean surface currents)

Drifter mean surface speed


Summary • Regional Ice Prediction System currently running in CMC

Operations producing 48hr forecasts 4 times/day at 5km resolution around North America

• Adding in Ocean Prediction (2014)

• Coupling between Atmosphere, Ice and Ocean important in North

• Ice and ocean model improvements ongoing

• Team work, funded projects and strong collaboration with MERCATOR-OCEAN contribute contribute to this team outcome .

• Collaboration with MERCATOR-OCEAN Important


COSS THEMES

Lecce Workshop Themes • Advances in integrated coastal observations

• Advances in downscaling

• Exchanging information and identifying good practices

Puerto Rico workshop (Jan 2014) (THEMES) • Predictability in the coastal oceans

• Upper-ocean processes, waves-current-atmosphere interactions and couplings

• Probabilistic approaches and risk assessment in the COSS, science in support of the mitigation of coastal hazards

• Impact and signature of climate change in the coastal oceans

• Training/Education/Outreach initiatives in the coastal oceans


CONCEPTS Outlook • More Canadian Participation in COSS

• RIOPS Forecast System Experimental (2014)

• RIOPS Analysis System Experimental (2015)

• RIOPS-REPS Coupled Ensemble Forecasts (2015)

• CREG36 East (2015)

• CREG36 Pan Canadian ~2018

• Further down scaling with FVCOM in targeted domains starting now.

Documents

CONCEPTS Regional Ocean Forecast System Developmentgodae-data/Symposium/GOV-presentations/… · CONCEPTS Regional Ocean Forecast System Development . GODAE OceanView Symposium,