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CLIMATIC SCENARIOS AND SERVICES

PROJECT START AND END DATESAPRIL 2013 • SEPTEMBER 2014

INFORMATIONDiane Chaumontprojet@ouranos.ca 514-282-6464www.ouranos.ca

Climate change is a reality that is forcing decision makers to evaluate related risks, vulnerabilities and opportunities. The rapid progress being made in climatology, together with the evolution of our understanding of opportunities and potential risks stemming from the consequences of climate change, will require more proactive and iterative management. This means that decision-makers will be required to have a better understanding of climate information. However, due to the many types of climate products available, climate information-based decision-making remains complex. This guide constitutes a tool enabling decision-makers to gain familiarity with information on the future climate and to evaluate how this information can be used at different points during the adaptation process. This guide is geared towards all stakeholders involved in climate change adaptation, from initial awareness-raising steps to the implementation of adaptation measures.

To help decision-makers better evaluate their climate information needs.To facilitate understanding of useful climate information during the process of adaptation to climate change.To illustrate and explain various types and formats of climate information.

To develop a method for classifying climate information into three main categories, i.e., basic, intermediate and detailed, using a decision tree.To put together a catalogue of different climate products and formats (e.g. tables, maps, evolution, etc.) currently used to present the three categories of climate information.To present fundamental climate modelling concepts that must be mastered in order to understand and analyze climate information.

Charron, I. (2014). A Guidebook on Climate Scenarios: Using Climate Information to Guide Adaptation Research and Decisions. Ouranos, 86 p.ISBN (Print) : 978-2-923292-14-4ISBN (PDF) : 978-2-923292-16-8http://www.ouranos.ca/media/publication/352_GuideCharron_ENG.pdf

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PROJECTCOMPLETED› › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › A GUIDEBOOK ON CLIMATE SCENARIOS: USING CLIMATE INFORMATION TO GUIDE ADAPTATION RESEARCH AND DECISIONS

See overleaf for results.

PCICEnvironment Canada

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Isabelle Charron, Ouranos Diane Chaumont, Ouranos

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• A GUIDEBOOK ON CLIMATE SCENARIOS:

USING CLIMATE INFORMATION TO GUIDE ADAPTATION RESEARCH AND DECISIONS

Category Example of objectives Example of information formats

Basic Initial awareness-raising; overview of risks

Synthesis table, climate normals, historical trends; global changes; map of projected changes

IntermediateEvaluation of vulnerabilities; impact

study; initial development of an adaptation plan

Spatial analogues; scatter plots, maps of projected absolute values; evolution of future values; cumulative distribution

functions

Detailed Evaluation of adaptation measures; research and development

Particular format; temporal series; analyses of extremes;

and climate models)

Table 1. Overview of the three climate information categories (excerpt from Table 1 in the guide)

RESULTS

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BENEFITS FOR ADAPTATION

This guide will facilitate the transfer of knowledge, in addition to fostering exchanges and collaboration between providers and users of climate information.This guide will provide decision-makers with a better understanding of climate information and will enable them to better evaluate how to use this information.This guide provides support for climate change related decision-making for all stakeholders working in the areas of vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptation to climate change.

A GUIDEBOOK ON CLIMATE SCENARIOS: USING CLIMATE INFORMATION TO GUIDE ADAPTATION RESEARCH AND DECISIONS

PROJECTCOMPLETED

The guide is divided into three sections that are repeated here to present the principal results.

1. Classification of climate information A decision tree is presented in this section so users can better evaluate their own climate information needs. This information is divided into three categories (basic, intermediate and detailed), which generally reflect a higher level of detail of the information provided. The main criteria used to distinguish between the three categories are as follows: 1) The intended use of the information or the reason why the information is required; 2) the type of climate variable (or index) that must be provided and 3) the spatial and temporal scales and resolutions over which the information must be established. However, these categories also reflect the work required to produce the information, the support that must be provided to individuals wishing to use the information and the level of uncertainty associated with the information.

2. Climate information formatsThe format in which information is presented and transferred to users turns out to be almost as important as the information itself. Using the appropriate format can ensure that the data is not only useful, but also more usable. The user's experience and areas of expertise will play a key role in the choice of the optimal format. In other words, the same climate information can be presented in different ways, depending on the user's expertise and preferences. A number of formats (Table1) are presented in the guide, together with explanations on how to construct and interpret climate information, in addition to limits or caveats with respect to this information.

3. Fundamental climate modelling concepts The last section of the guide provides a more detailed explanation of many useful concepts underpinning a clear understanding of climate formats: 1) Climate models, climate simulations, climate projections, emissions scenarios and climate change scenarios, 2) Greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emissions scenarios/SRES and representative concentration pathway/RCP), 3) Natural variability in the climate, 4) Use a simulation ensemble, 5) Sources of uncertainty, 6) Downscaling techniques and 7) Post-processing techniques.

Key messages and conclusionsSeveral important messages concerning the interpretation and use of climate information are addressed throughout the guide, including:

The three categories of climate information are all equally useful depending on the type of decision to be made; basic information can be used for decision-making just as much as detailed information.Choosing the most appropriate product and information format can ensure that climate information is clearly understood and properly used.The use of a simulation ensemble is crucial: there is no such thing as a best climate scenario.It is important to understand the limits of the data used to ensure that the information is interpreted properly. A finer spatial resolution is not always required and does not always yield better information.The relative importance of uncertainty sources varies over time and thus has a different effect on the decision-making process.

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