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Kyoto and BeyondKyoto and BeyondKyoto and BeyondKyoto and Beyond

Report on CopenhagenReport on CopenhagenReport on CopenhagenReport on Copenhagen

www.isciences.comwww.isciences.com June, 2010June, 2010

IntroductionIntroduction

Click here to view entire series

Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations that provide information concerning the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Report on Copenhagen is a summary of events that transpired in Dec 2009 at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP15), including the drafting of the Copenhagen Accord and subsequent public discourse.

ContentsContents

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5

The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol

Steps toward COP16Steps toward COP16

COP15 and the Copenhagen AccordCOP15 and the Copenhagen Accord

2010 Timeline2010 Timeline

Reactions to COP15Reactions to COP15

The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol

The convocation of nations in Copenhagen to address a future climate agreement is the 15th in a series of meetings resulting from the UNFCCC

The first formal international climate agreement requiring limits to fossil fuel emissions is the Kyoto Protocol which is currently in force.

Kyoto Protocol BackgroundKyoto Protocol Background

The Protocol is a multilateral agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Developed countries were assigned limits on emissions relative to 1990, and targets vary by nation.

The Protocol was signed by 84 countries and ratified by nearly all who signed. The US did not ratify. Countries who ratified are now bound by Protocol requirements.

The Protocol, part of the UNFCCC, has been in force since 2005. The first commitment period ends 2012 and no binding framework has been established post-2012.

Four Conference of the Parties have taken place since the Protocol entered into force. Each COP has been accompanied by a CMP, a meeting specific to the Protocol.

Kyoto Protocol Emissions UpdatesKyoto Protocol Emissions Updates

Developed countries were assigned limits on emissions relative to 1990 levels and targets vary by nation.

This table from UNFCCC data shows progress made in emissions reductions as of 2009.

Image credit: UNFCCC

Kyoto Protocol Emissions UpdatesKyoto Protocol Emissions Updates

Source: World Wildlife Foundation/Allianz

http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/policy/g8-scorecard.html

For specific information on each country, click on the country flags

The Climate Scorecard below shows an interpretation of the performance of key nations (known as the G8) with respect to meeting the terms of the Protocol.

COP15: OverviewCOP15: Overview

The most recent Conference of the Parties was COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark Dec 7-18, 2009.

COP15 was particularly significant due to an increasing international push for new binding climate change legislature.

The focus of COP15 was on attempting to draft new legislation and deciding if goals set by the Kyoto Protocol should continue post-2012.

Time was also spent improving the clean development mechanism and drafting decisions on adaptation, technology, and capacity building.

Click here to view the schedule of COP15

Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

COP15: DetailsCOP15: Details

What was expected What actually happenedFinding a new commitment phase for the Kyoto Protocol that includes emissions reductions from developing countries.

Lowering the target temperature rise from 2C to 1.5C to protect the least developed nations and smallest islands from disappearing.

Forming an agreement on how to avoid catastrophic temperature increases by 2050.

Forming a method for developing countries to receive aid and funding towards reducing emissions levels. Creating an accountability mechanism to ensure funding occurs.

Forming a new legally binding agreement.

No binding framework was created; no obligations on developing countries to make cuts.

The 2C target temperature prevailed due to the high cost associated with the .5C decrease (trillions of dollars per industrialized nation).

The goal of reducing global CO2 emissions by 50% (80% for industrialized nations) was dropped.

No mechanisms put in place to mobilize $100 billion by 2020 to aid developing countries. No decisions were made as to which developed countries would provide funding.

The Copenhagen Accord was created separately from COP15. Not legally binding.

The Copenhagen AccordThe Copenhagen Accord

The Copenhagen Accord was the result of an independent action of the U.S., China, Brazil, India, and South Africa. The meeting, as well as the drafting of the accord, were not an official part of COP15. The process was controversial due to the limited international involvement.

It became apparent that the COP15 process was floundering, and during the last days of COP15 the Copenhagen Accord evolved.

Some countries that were excluded from the process renounced the Accord. These include Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, and Nicaragua.

Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

Contents of the Copenhagen AccordContents of the Copenhagen Accord

AASets a goal limiting the increase in Earth’s average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels; process yet to be established.

BBStates that Annex I countries of the Protocol should further strengthen their efforts to meet targets set by the Protocol.

CCFunding will be provided to developing countries for lowering emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and for adaptation and technology development and transfer.

DDCopenhagen Green Climate Fund will be the operator of finances to help developing countries conduct activities related to mitigation.

NOTE: No specific emissions reductions have been set and the Accord is not legally binding.

Click here to view the entire Copenhagen Accord

OutcomeOutcomeCOP15 did not achieve its objective which was to establish an agreement subsequent to the Kyoto Protocol. However, on the last day, December 18th, it did acknowledge the Accord as a means to move the process forward.

The Copenhagen Accord is not legally binding, but allows for nations to submit voluntary commitments. While the Accord initially raised controversy, there has been increasing acceptance. As of January 2010, 124 countries were engaged in some form of voluntary commitment.

The Accord is currently viewed as a declaration that expresses an intent to act on climate change.

Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

Supportive Reactions to COP15Supportive Reactions to COP15

“The meeting has had a positive result, everyone should be happy. After negotiations both sides have managed to preserve their bottom line. For the Chinese this was our sovereignty and our national interest.” -Xie Zhenhua, Head of China’s Delegation

“The Copenhagen Accord is no substitute for a real-deal treaty, but world leaders became personally acquainted with the tough issues, directly and seriously negotiating for the first time…” -Kelly Sims Gallagher, Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy at The Fletcher School

“We have made a start. I believe that what we need to follow up on quickly is ensuring a legally binding outcome.” -Gordon Brown, UK Prime Minister

“We’ve come a long way but we have much further to go.” -Barack Obama, US President

“The leaders of a small number of key countries…worked to identify a politically feasible path forward. Their roadmap, despite its flaws, offers a possible foundation for progress…Unlike Kyoto, this accord establishes a framework for involving key, rapidly growing developing countries” -Robert Stavins, Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School

“Given where we started and the expectations for this conference, anything less than a legally binding and agreed outcome falls far short of the mark. On the other hand… perhaps the bar was set too high and the fact that there’s now a deal… perhaps gives us something to hang our hat on.” -John Ahse, Chair of Kyoto Protocol Talks

Unsupportive Reactions to COP 15Unsupportive Reactions to COP 15“It’s very disappointing, I would say, but it is not a failure…We have a big job ahead to avoid climate change through effective emissions reduction targets and this was not done here.” -Sergio Serra, Brazil’s Climate Change Ambassador

“Anything above 1.5 Degrees, the Maldives and many small islands and low-lying islands would vanish. It is for this reason that we tried very hard during the course of the last two days to have 1.5 degrees in the document. I am so sorry that this was blatantly obstructed by big-emitting countries.” - Mohamed Nasheed, Maldives’ President

“The draft text asks Africa to sign a suicide pact, an incineration pact in order to maintain the economic dominance of a few countries” -Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping, Head of G-77 Group

“I will not hide my disappointment regarding the non-binding nature of the agreement here. In that respect the document falls far short of our expectations” -Jose Manuel Barroso, EU Commission President

“It looks like we are being offered 30 pieces of silver to betray our people and our future.” -Ian Fry, Tuvalu’s Lead Negotiator

“Copenhagen has been an abject failure. Justice has not been done. By delaying action, rich countries have condemned millions of the world’s poorest people to hunger, suffering and loss of life as climate change accelerates. The blame for this disastrous outcome is squarely on the developed nations.” - Nnimmo Bassey, Friends of the Earth International

Click here to view other reactions

COP15: Limited ProgressCOP15: Limited Progress

The general consensus of attending parties was that COP15 was unsuccessful.

In the coming months, countries will work towards finding an agreement on new binding legislation.

Many feel it will be necessary to provide more detail in the Accord to increase transparency to rebuild trust.

There is talk of creating a global climate fund to service developing nations. This may create balance between the developed and developing nations.

Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

Steps Toward COP16Steps Toward COP16

Forums and Talks

Strengthening Emissions Pledges

Progress Tracking System

Improving Details of the Accord

Further talks necessary beforeCOP 16 in order to reach alegislative agreement.

Emissions pledges not large enough. Need new program to strengthen pledges.

Execute progress tracking systems for developed countries. Create for developing countries.

Details on finance,forests,adaptation,technology.

Click stepped text for further details on each step.

November 29 – December 10, 2010 in Cancun, Mexico

Address by Yvo de Boer at Petersberg

Climate Dialogue

The World’s People’s

Conference on Climate Change in

Bolivia

2010 Timeline2010 Timeline

Decoding the Copenhagen

Accord Event on Capitol Hill

20th Meeting of the Joint

Implementation Supervisory Committee

Speech by Yvo de Boer at Public

Hearing on Climate Change

Bonn Climate Change Talks

9th Meeting of the Enforcement Branch of the Compliance Committee

Bonn Climate Change Talks – Second Round

Second International

Conference on Climate Change

World Energy Congress in

Montreal

Mexico’s Proposed Additional

Climate Change Meeting

G20 Climate Meetings in Seoul

COP16 in Cancun, Mexico

Key

Date Set

Proposed Date

Click on events for further information and supporting documents

January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December

Concluding StatementConcluding Statement

Article 2 of the UNFCCC calls for the stabilization of atmospheric GHG

concentrations at levels that “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with

the climate system.”The UNFCCC/Kyoto/Copenhagen process

continues as nations attempt to meet this objective.

We plan to provide updates and links to important documents when COP16 and

other notable events occur.

ReferencesReferences

Ahmed, Imad. "What Happened at Copenhagen?" Graduate Professional School of International Affairs - The Fletcher School at Tufts University. 7 Jan. 2010. Web. http://fletcher.tufts.edu/news/2010/01/opeds/Ahmed-Jan07.shtml

Baste, Ivar A. "Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee Publishes Report of 20th Meeting - Climate-L.org." Climate-L.org - Daily News. 24 Feb. 2010. Web. http://climate-l.org/2010/02/25/joint-implementation-supervisory-committee-publishes-report-of-20th-meeting/

"Bolivia Climate Change Conference and the Rights of Mother Earth." Ecowalkthetalk.com. 28 Apr. 2010. Web. http://www.ecowalkthetalk.com/blog/2010/04/28/bolivia-climate-change-conference-and-the-rights-of-mother-earth/

"Bonn Climate Change Talks." International Institute for Sustainable Development - Reporting Services (IISD RS) - "Linkages" - A Multimedia Resource for Environment and Development Negotiations. Web. http://www.iisd.ca/climate/ccwg9/

"Bonn Climate Change Talks." United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Web. http://unfccc.int/2860.php

"Bonn Climate Change Talks Conclude: More Optimism, but Still ‘unbalanced’." United Nations Non-governmental Liaison Service. 16 June 2010. Web. http://www.un-ngls.org/spip.php?article2523

Climate Change Conference 2010." Climate Change. University of Queensland. Web. http://on-climate.com/conference-2010/

"End of COP15: Our Work Begins Now." Cascade Climate Network. Web. http://cascadeclimate.org/cop15/index.php/2009/12/20/end-of-cop15-our-work-begins-now/

G20 Seoul Summit. Web. http://www.seoulsummit.kr/"G8 Climate Scorecards." World Wildlife Fund. Web.

http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/policy/G8-climate-scorecards.html"GHG Data from UNFCCC." United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Web.

http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/items/4146.php"Hill Event Analyzes Copenhagen Accord and the Future of Climate Negotiations." The German Marshall Fund of the

United States. 25 Jan. 2010. Web. http://bit.ly/bAoXOaMorales, Alex. "Mexico Proposes Two Additional Climate Change Meetings in 2010." Bloomberg.com. 12 Feb. 2010. Web.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601130&sid=ariJgCukCteIMorgan, Jennifer. "From Angst to Action: Moving Forward After Copenhagen | World Resources Institute." World

Resources Institute | Global Warming, Climate Change, Ecosystems, Sustainable Markets, Good Governance & the Environment. 7 Apr. 2010. Web. 22 May 2010. http://www.wri.org/stories/2010/04/angst-action-moving-forward-after-copenhagen?utm_campaign=wri-digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=wridigest-2010-04&utm_content=hyperlink&utm_term=FromAngstToAction

Stavins, Robert. "Opportunities and Ironies: Climate Policy in Tokyo, Seoul, Brussels, and Washington."Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Harvard University, 21 Mar. 2010. Web. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/analysis/stavins/?tag=cop-16

Vidal, John. "Bolivia Climate Change Talks to Give Poor a Voice." The Guardian. Guardian News, 18 Apr. 2010. Web. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/18/bolivia-climate-change-talks-cochabamba

"What Happened at COP15 in Copenhagen?" GHG Accounting. Web. http://ghgaccounting.ca/?p=282