Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1/1 Origin Energy Limited ACN 000 051 696 • Level 45 Australia Square, 264-278 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000 GPO Box 5376, Sydney NSW 2001 • Telephone (02) 8345 5000 • Facsimile (02) 9252 1566 • www.originenergy.com.au
To Company Announcements Office Facsimile 1300 135 638
Company ASX Limited Date 26 March 2012
From Helen Hardy Pages 35
Subject PRESENTATIONS
Attached for your information is a presentation being made to overseas investors by Mr Grant King, Managing Director and Ms Karen Moses, Executive Director Finance & Strategy. A copy of the presentation can also be obtained from our website www.originenergy.com.au under the Investor Centre – Presentations section. Regards
Helen Hardy Company Secretary 02 8345 5023 – [email protected]
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Origin EnergyInternational Roadshow
Grant King, Managing Director
Karen Moses, Executive Director, Finance and Strategy
March, April 2012
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Important NoticeThis presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any
securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction (including the USA). This presentation is for information purposes only, is in a
summary form, and does not purport to be complete. This presentation does not take into account the investment
objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any investor, potential investor or any other person. No investment
decision should be made in reliance on this presentation. Independent financial and taxation advice should be sought before
making any investment decision.Certain statements in this presentation are in the nature of forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements
of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome
in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties,
assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed
or implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Origin and
cannot be predicted by Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks,
circumstances and events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, joint ventures and
associated undertakings operate. They also include general economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, the regulatory environment,
competitive pressures, selling price, market demand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause objectives to change or may
cause outcomes not to be realised. None of Origin or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their
respective officers, employees or agents) (the "Relevant Persons") makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or
likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. The forward
looking statements in this presentation reflect views held only at the date of this presentation. In addition, statements about past
performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Subject to any continuing obligations under law or the ASX Listing Rules,
Origin and the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking to disseminate after the date of this presentation any updates or
revisions to any forward looking statements to reflect any change in expectations in relation to any forward looking statements or any change
in events, conditions or circumstances on which such statements are based.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this
presentation and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Origin or any of the Relevant Persons in relation to it. In particular,
Origin does not endorse, and is not responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information in this presentation relating to a third party.
All references to "$" are references to Australian dollars unless otherwise specified.
All references to debt refer to interest-bearing debt.
A reference to Contact is a reference to Contact Energy of New Zealand, currently a 52.8% subsidiary of Origin.
A reference to Australia Pacific LNG or APLNG is a reference to Australia Pacific LNG Pty Limited, an incorporated joint venture in which Origin
currently holds a 42.5% interest.
A reference to the “NSW energy assets” or “NSW acquisition” is a reference to the Integral Energy and Country Energy retail businesses and the
Eraring GenTrader arrangements.
A reference to FID 1 is a reference to the Final Investment Decision on the first phase of APLNG’s two train CSG to LNG project taken on 28
July 2011. A reference to FID 2 is a reference to a Final Investment Decision on the second phase of APLNG’s two train CSG to LNG project.
A reference to NEM is a reference to Australia’s National Electricity Market.
All comparative data is in relation to the prior corresponding period, 1 July 2010 to 31 December 2010, unless otherwise stated. Certain
comparative amounts have been reclassified to conform with the current year’s presentation.
2 |
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
An investment in Origin today provides a stake in a company with…
3 |
The largest fuel integrated generation retail business in Australia and New Zealand
• Large and diversified portfolio of physical and contracted fuel supply
• Largest and most diversified generation portfolio
• Largest retail energy customer base
A substantial investment in Australia’s premier coal seam gas resource
• Strong and well aligned joint venture with unrivalled expertise
• Largest 2P reserves to cover domestic and export contracts
• FID taken on first LNG train, FID on second LNG train pending
• Binding sales contracts signed for 8.6 mtpa of LNG
Growing resource opportunities domestically and overseas
• Domestic and international gas exploration opportunities
• Clean energy development opportunities including geothermal, hydro and solar
…a proven track record of delivering value through investment in
development projects and acquisitions
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cents
per
Share
Origin Earnings per Share
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$ m
illion
Free Cash Flow
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$ m
illion
Productive Capital
Origin has added value by successfully investing capital that has
delivered commensurate growth in cash flows and earnings
4 |
CAGR 18%1
CAGR 22%1
CAGR 26%1
CAGR 17%1
(1) From listing, until 30 June 2011.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$ m
illion
Free Cash Flow
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
5
Origin will continue to invest in growing its business and
expects to double productive capital over the next five years …
…with cash flows and earnings to follow a similar trend
Full benefit from NSW acquisition
Legacy fuel uplift
Te Mihi geothermal project
Start of gas sales to QCLNG
Potential gas sales to other LNG projects
APLNG Train 1
APLNG Train 2
Mortlake Power Station
Cash
flo
w
2012 2016For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
• Mortlake Power Station to be fully operational by mid-2012
• Unwind of NSW provisions, which are suppressing cash flows in FY 2012 by around
$230 million
• Transition Services Agreement (TSA) provisions - approximately $100 million
• Onerous contracts – over $130 million
• Costs linked to these provisions expire almost entirely by the end of FY2015
• Origin’s legacy gas and coal contracts and gas reserves exposed to strong increases
in wholesale energy prices
• Access to around 3,000 PJe of contract rights and uncontracted 3P equity gas reserves
• Over 2,000 PJe of legacy coal contracts
• In addition, Origin has tenure over significant conventional and unconventional
exploration opportunities in existing acreage
• Completion of Te Mihi marks the end of Contact’s substantial investment program
in New Zealand
• Around 400 MW of low cost, flexible, thermal and geothermal generation capacity added
• The current Te Mihi development is expected to be on line in 2013
• Completion of this program will add significantly to Contact’s cash flows
6 |
Growth in cash flows and earnings will come from Origin’s
underlying businesses…
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2017
An
nu
al P
rod
uct
ion
-p
eta
jou
les
Australia Pacific LNG Gas Production (100%)
LNG (oil price linked)Domestic
• US$20 billion(1) capital cost estimate
for full 2 train development (does not
include capital for domestic operations
and non-APLNG project costs)
• Domestic sales ongoing (~2,000 PJ at
legacy prices)
• Sales to QCLNG to commence on
project start up (expected 2014)
• up to 640 PJ linked to LNG
exports
• Potential for additional gas sales to
other projects as they start up
• Contracts with Sinopec(2) and Kansai
for the sale of 8.6 mtpa of LNG for 20
years
• APLNG Train 1 - 2015
• APLNG Train 2 - 2016
7 |
…and from commencement of production from the Australia
Pacific LNG’s CSG to LNG Project
(1) Based on foreign exchange rates assumed at the time of FID 1
(2) 3.3 mtpa subject to government approvals and a FID on the second LNG train.
Petajoule equivalent (PJe) conversions
1 million tonnes of LNG = 55 PJe
1 million barrels of oil equivalent = 5.83 PJe
1 million mmbtu = 1.05 PJe
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
-
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
International Integrated
ASX200 ASX200 Util ASX200 Engy
P/E M
ult
iple
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
$/sh
are
ORG excl APLNG APLNG
The 2nd Sinopec investment in Australia Pacific LNG values
Origin’s stake in APLNG at $5.50 to $6.00 per Origin share …
8 |
Recent share
price (1)
Sinopec
valuation of
APLNG implies
ORG ex APLNG
P/E multiple of
around 8.5x
12.2x 12.5x
15.9x
21.3x
… implying a P/E multiple for Origin’s other businesses well below
appropriate benchmarks
(1) $13.05 per share as at 19 March 2012
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
9 |
(1) As at 30 June 2010; excludes Contact
(2) As at 31 December 2011; excludes Contact
Jun 20101 ($5.6b) Dec 20112 ($9.5b)
26%
55%
4% 15%
Funding Diversity at 30
June 2010
26%
45%
7%
10%
5%7%
Funding Diversity at 31 December 2011
Bank Facilities - Domestic Bank Facilities - International
European Hybrid Issue Australian Retail Notes
Senior Unsecured Notes - US Issue Medium Term Notes
US Private Placement
26%
45%
7%
10%
5%7%
Funding Diversity at 31 December 2011
Bank Facilities - Domestic Bank Facilities - International
European Hybrid Issue Australian Retail Notes
Senior Unsecured Notes - US Issue Medium Term Notes
US Private Placement
• Given facilities Origin has in place, there
is no intention to raise additional equity
for APLNG Train 1 and other committed
projects
• Origin’s funding choices for APLNG Train
2, including additional equity, will be
dependent on:
• Timing of APLNG Train 2 decision
• Final equity share in APLNG
• The quantum and cost of project
finance for APLNG
• Consideration of credit metrics
To support the growth in investment Origin has raised additional
capital to further strengthen its balance sheet, improve liquidity
and diversify its funding sources
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
10 |
Material opportunities for growth in the longer term
• Margin growth through Origin’s legacy gas, coal and renewables positions due to
imminent tightening of market supply/demand balances
• Gas supply to third party CSG to LNG projects at export prices
• Commencement of APLNG’s project, offering exposure to rapidly growing Asian
energy markets
Growth in the medium term from existing resources and committed projects
• Gas development options on Australian east coast such as Ironbark and Halladale/Blackwatch
• Exploration for gas in New Zealand, Otway/Bass basins, South East Asia, Botswana and Kenya
• Unconventional reserves growth in Australia (Cooper, Surat/Bowen, Perth basins)
• Exploration and development of geothermal resources in Chile and Indonesia
• Assessment and development of hydro resources in PNG
Origin continues to build value through a business with strong and
predictable cash flows and earnings…
• Extensive fuel position in physical and contracted resources
• Large, flexible and diverse generation portfolio
• Leading energy retail market share
• Integration of fuel, generation and retail positions
Strong and predictable earnings from existing business
…which will grow substantially in the years ahead
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Segment Review
11 |
Origin reports its results in the following segments:
• Energy Markets
• Exploration & Production
• Contact Energy
• Australia Pacific LNG
• Corporate (including development opportunities)
Financial information for these segments is reported in the Company’s financial statements
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Operating segments have been revised in line with management’s
view of the operational performance of the business
12 |
• Final Investment Decision on the first phase of APLNG’s CSG to LNG project
• Deepening integration within Origin’s Energy Markets business
• Increased development opportunities outside of existing operations
Segment Business Description
Energy MarketsAustralian energy retailing, associated products and services; power generation in Australia; and LPG operations in Australia, the Pacific, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam
Exploration & Production
Gas and oil exploration and production in Australia, New Zealand and international areas of interest
Contact Energy Origin’s investment in its 52.8% owned New Zealand subsidiary Contact Energy Ltd
Australia Pacific LNGOrigin’s investment in Australia Pacific LNG including current domestic operations and the Australia Pacific LNG CSG to LNG project
Corporate Corporate activities that are not allocated to other operating segments and business development activities outside of Origin’s existing operations
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Energy Markets
13 |
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
14 |
Origin is Australia’s leading fuel-integrated generator/retailer
• Portfolio over 5,800 MW1
• Gas-fired, coal-fired, and
wind power stations
• Peaking, intermediate and
baseload operation
• Located in all major regions
of the National Electricity
Market
• 4.4 million electricity, gas and
LPG customer accounts
• Operates in all major regions
of the NEM
• Other energy solutions
including solar PV, solar hot
water, electric vehicle charging
and trigeneration
• Over 5,000 PJe of gas and coal
reserves and contracts at
legacy prices
• Equity gas portfolio diversified
across Australian east coast
energy markets
• Large contracted coal position
(1) Includes Mortlake Power Station
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
VIC NSW SA USD 65/bbl
USD 85/bbl
USD 105/bbl
CurrentDomestic Spot Prices
EnergyQuest ForecastLNG Netback Prices
$/G
J
15 |
PJ/aOrigin Sources and Uses of Fuel
Legacy F
uel Posi
tion
NSW domestic coal prices
expected to increase
towards export parity
Australian domestic gas
prices expected to increase
towards export parity
Australian Domestic Gas Prices
1 2
3
(1) Average market spot price since market commencement (1 Feb 2007 for Vic, 1 Sep 2010 for NSW and SA)
(2) EnergyQuest report “Australian Coal Seam Gas 2011: From Well to Wharf”
(3) Woodmac Coal Supply Service, June 2011
Eraring Coal
Contracts
Origin
Equity Gas
APLNG
Purchases
Origin JV
Partners -
Contracted
Coal-fired
Generation
Third Party
Contracts
Gas-fired
Generation
Retail &
Wholesale
Gas Demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Fuel Sources Fuel Uses
PJOrigin 2011 Fuel Supply/Demand
Legacy fuel contracts set at previously low domestic prices will
drive growth in earnings as wholesale energy prices rise
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Origin
TRUenergy
Mac. Gen.
Snowy Hydro
Stanwell
CS Energy
IP/GDF Suez
AGL
Delta West
LYMMCo
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
The wholesale energy portfolio supports a unique and strategic
generation portfolio….
16 |
Origin Generation Capacity2
by fuel:
by region:
Largest Generation
Portfolio in Australia1• Fast-ramp generation portfolio
- Ramp from 20% to 98% capacity
factor in less than 90 minutes
• Fuel-switching capability
- Switch between coal and gas
depending on market conditions
• Flexible gas transmission
arrangements
- Ability to easily move gas around
east coast market
• Energy procurement
optimisation
- Flexibility to run generation, or
purchase from contract or spot
markets
~ 5,800 MW
(1) Includes the AEMO NEM registered capacity of scheduled and non-scheduled market generation as at March 2012 (Mortlake included for Origin)
(2) Includes Mortlake Power Station, currently under construction, and 2,800 MW from Eraring Power Station
QLD NSW
VIC SA
QLD NSW
VIC SA
QLD NSW
VIC SA
Black Coal Gas
Peaking Liquids Hydro
Wind
Black Coal Gas
Peaking Liquids Hydro
Wind
Black Coal Gas
Peaking Liquids Hydro
Wind
….that results in a competitive cost of energy for Origin’s retail business
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
17 |
Origin’s retail business provides a stable and growing channel
to market that monetises Origin’s investments in fuel and
generation…
Top 3 Electricity and Natural Gas retailers1
QLD NSW VIC SA NEM
1. Origin 1. Origin 1. Origin 1. AGL 1. Origin
2. AGL 2. TRU 2. TRU 2. Origin 2. AGL
3. TRU 3. AGL 3. AGL 3. TRU 3. TRU
Origin customer accounts
3,075,000 electricity customer accounts
950,000 gas customer accounts
355,000 LPG customer accounts
NEM Market Share of Electricity and
Gas retail customers accounts1
Origin
33%
Electricity and Natural Gas Market share in the NEM regions
Sources and Uses of Fuel
0
100
200
300
400
Fuel Generation Retail
Fuel/Generation - GasFuel/Generation - CoalRetail - GasRetail - Electricity
(1) Based on number of Origin customer accounts as at 30 June 2011 and estimated and reported market customer accounts as at 30 June 2011
…and provides strong and predictable earnings in the energy
markets business
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Exploration & Production
18 |
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
19 |
Approximately 80% of Origin’s conventional 2P reserves are gas
supplying domestic markets in Australia and New Zealand…
233 -
803
990
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Conventional 2P CSG 3P
Origin Reserves (PJe)
Liquids Gas CSG30 June 2011
Petajoule equivalent (PJe) conversion
1 million barrels of oil equivalent = 5.83 PJe
1 million mmbtu = 1.05 PJe
…and Origin has substantial undeveloped 3P reserves of CSG
outside the APLNG project
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
20 |(1) LNG assumptions (source: EnergyQuest): gas production estimates for LNG projects that have reached FID. Based on company announcements
for contracted offtake from two trains, with start-up staggered over two years for each project. Fuel gas assumed to be 10%.
Gas demand in eastern Australia is expected to triple over the
next 5 years…
…and Origin continues to invest in domestic exploration and
development in anticipation of this growth
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500 East coast gas production 2000-2017 (PJ)
LNGRamp GasEast Coast
Calendar Years
Source: EnergyQuest February 2012LNG assumptions: gas production estimates for LNG projects that have reached FID. Based on company
announcements for contracted offtake from two trains, with start-up staggered over two years for each
project. Fuel gas assumed to be 10%.
PJ
Source: EnergyQuest Feb 20121
Gas demand
expected to triple
• Origin currently supplies around 15% of eastern
Australia’s gas
• Maintenance & enhancement of offshore assets
creates flexibility to address opportunities as LNG
projects ramp-up gas production through to 2017
• In addition, upside potential exists in all major
regions in which Origin is involved
• Otway Basin - Geographe development,
Halladale & Black Watch fields, material
exploration opportunities
• Surat / Bowen – Ironbark CSG, deep gas
potential in Surat and Bowen
• Cooper Basin – contingent resources, deep
gas and shale gas
• Bass Basin – BassGas MLE and upside in
Trefoil, Rockhopper and further exploration
• In the Otway Basin the Thistle-1 exploration well is
planned to be drilled Q2 FY2012 targeting ~500 bcf
gas in place
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
21 |
New Zealand: Canterbury Basin: Origin 50%, Operator Anadarko
Targeting the Carrack/Caravell prospect with potential
recoverable resources in excess of 500 million barrels of
oil equivalent
Drilling is expected to commence in 2013
Kenya: Lamu Basin: Origin 20%, Operator Apache
Targeting the Mbawa-1 prospect with a potential un-
risked mean recoverable resource of more than 230
million barrels of oil equivalent
Drilling is expected to commence in late 2012
Vietnam: Hong Song Basin: Origin 100% and operator
Whale prospect offshore Vietnam targeting potential
mean recoverable resources of greater than 140 million
barrels of oil (un-risked)
Drilling is expected to occur in late 2012
Botswana: Karoo Basin: Kubu Energy Resources, a 50:50 JV with
Sasol, established to explore for CSG in Botswana
Exploration operations expected to commence in the
Karoo Basin later in 2012
… and prospects that have the potential to make a
material difference to Origin
Origin is undertaking a staged exploration program in regions
that offer high prospectivity and access to growing markets …
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Contact Energy
22 |
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Origin owns a 52.8% interest in Contact Energy, one of New
Zealand’s leading fuel-integrated generator/retailers …
23 |
Energy Retailer
• 443,000 electricity customers
• 60,000 gas customers
• 60,200 LPG customers1
Generation Portfolio
• 290 MW geothermal generation
• 752 MW hydro generation
• 1,176 MW gas generation
• Over 2,000 MW in generation
development opportunities
(1) Including franchises
… supplying gas, electricity and LPG products across the country
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Recent investments have added significant flexibility to
Contact’s portfolio …
24 |
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Ge
oth
erm
al R
an
ge
CC
GT
@ $
7.7
5/G
J
Ga
s B
ase
Lo
ad
ed
Hyd
ro R
an
ge
OC
GT
@ $
7.7
5/G
J
Ga
s
Win
d R
an
ge
Co
al @
$5
.30
/GJ
CC
GT
@ $
15
/GJ
Ga
s B
ase
Lo
ad
ed
$ /
MW
h
Long-run costs
Range $25/t Carbon $50/t Carbon
Generation long-run costs1
• 166 MW Te mihi geothermal power station currently
under development, expected to be completed in 2013
• Contact has substantial additional geothermal
resources to be developed as required
(1) Dollars are NZD
Ahuroa Gas Storage
• First natural gas storage facility
constructed in New Zealand
• Enables Contact to inject and
extract gas as required
Stratford Peakers
• 200 MW gas-fired peaking power
station
• Provides flexibility to be able to
meet peaks in demand
… while the Te Mihi development will replace high-cost thermal
generation with low-cost geothermal generation
Low-cost generation
Increased Portfolio Flexibility Low cost geothermal generation
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Completion of the Te Mihi geothermal development will mark the
end of Contact’s significant investment program …
25 |
… resulting in increased free cash flow from FY2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Co
st $
'm
Capital Expenditure - Committed
Whirinaki purchase Other Gas flexibility Geothermal Stay in business
Contact capital expenditure – committed1
(1) Dollars are NZD
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Australia Pacific LNG
26 |
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Origin, with its strong joint venture partners ConocoPhillips and
Sinopec, is developing one of Australia’s largest CSG to LNG
projects
• Australia’s largest integrated
energy company
• Listed in S&P/ASX 20 index
• Integrated energy company with
global operations
• One of world’s largest CSG operators
with over 25 years’ experience
• Integrated energy and chemical company
• One of China’s largest petroleum products
suppliers and crude oil and natural gas
producers
• 7.6 mtpa LNG off-take
agreement for 20 years
• 1 mtpa LNG off-take
agreement for 20 years
Developer of CSG to LNG
project based on Australia’s
largest CSG 2P Reserves base
• Operated by Origin
• Long history of CSG production in Australia,
complemented by ConocoPhillips’ 25 years
of CSG experience
• Operated by ConocoPhillips
• 40 years’ LNG experience
• Owner of Optimised Cascade® Process LNG
technology
• Using ConocoPhillips technology licence,
Bechtel has delivered 8 LNG trains globally
UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
• Domestic
contracts
42.5%(1) 42.5%(1)15%(1)
(1) Ownership to become 37.5%/37.5%/25%, subject to Australian and Chinese Government approvals and a Final Investment Decision on Train 227 |
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
28 |
APLNG is underpinned by a large, high quality reserves base with
strong, experienced operators in CSG and LNG developments
Quality of the CSG resource
• APLNG holds acreage in both of the region’s
“sweet spots” – Spring Gully/Fairview and the
Undulla Nose
Australia’s largest 2P reserves base
• Large CSG reserves position
• Prime acreage in both Qld CSG “sweet spots”
• Well developed resource base
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Ramp and Tail Gas Train 2 Train 1
QCLNG GSA Domestic Gas Origin Contract
3C 2C
3P 2P
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
PJ
Jan-Jun
Jul-Dec
Origin Share
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Ramp and Tail Gas Train 2 Train 1 QCLNG GSA Domestic Gas Origin Contract 3C 2C 3P 2P
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Ramp and Tail Gas Train 2 Train 1 QCLNG GSA Domestic Gas Origin Contract 3C 2C 3P 2P
Estimated
Requirements
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Ramp and Tail Gas Train 2 Train 1 QCLNG GSA Domestic Gas Origin Contract 3C 2C 3P 2P
Bowen Basin
Undulla Nose
Eastern
Walloons
Spring Gully /
Fairview
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Description: • CSG to LNG project based on Australia’s largest 2P CSG reserves base
Size: • Two trains, each with a nominal production capacity of 4.5 mtpa
• Initial commitment to one train and infrastructure to support a second train
LNG Project
Costs (FID 1
announcement):
• US$20 billion* for two trains, from FID until Train 2 start-up; includes $2.5 billion
contingency
• Split between upstream and downstream costs approximately 50%/50%
• Two-thirds of costs denominated in AUD with balance predominantly USD
• Over 60% of capital costs at fixed/lump sum or unit rate costs
FID 1 • FID on first LNG train on 28 July 2011
• Initial commitment of US$14 billion* for one train and infrastructure to support second train
FID 2 • FID on second LNG train on track to occur by mid-2012
• Incremental commitment of US$6 billion*
Key
Contractors:
• Bechtel: EPC contract LNG facility
• McConnell Dowell and Consolidated Contracting (MCJV): pipeline construction
Timing: • First gas: Train 1 expected mid-2015, Train 2 expected early-2016
29 |
… with FID on the second train pending and expected by mid-2012
The joint venture has taken a Final Investment Decision (FID)
on the first phase of its project …
PROJECT OVERVIEW
* Based on foreign exchange rates assumed at the time of FID 1
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Binding sales contracts have been signed for 8.6 mpta of LNG
Sinopec
• 7.6* mpta LNG supply for 20 years
• Represents the largest LNG supply
agreement in Australian history by annual
volume
• Commencing 2015 for 4.3 mtpa and
3.3* mtpa in 2016
Kansai
• 1.0 mtpa LNG supply for 20 years
• Commencing 2016
30 |* 3.3 mtpa subject to government approvals and a FID on the second LNG train.
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Elements of valuation
• The headline net consideration for the second Sinopec agreement
was US$1.1 billion for a 10% equity interest
A$11 billion(1)
• Further to this, the consideration is adjusted to include
shareholder cash contributions to the project between 1 January
2011 and completion. This includes the cash injection from the
first Sinopec agreement and cash calls made on shareholders.
A$3 billion – A$4.3 billion (depending on date of completion)
31 |
APLNG is valued at $5.50 to $6.00 per Origin share using a
Sinopec look-through valuation
(1) Assumes exchange rate parity for AUD/USD
(2) Based on shares on issue as at 19 March 2012 – 1.086 billion
(3) $13.05/share as at 19 March 2012
A$ Range of Valuation
Total APLNG Value 14.0 billion 15.3 billion
Per % of APLNG 140 million 153 million
Origin’s Share (42.5%) 6.0 billion 6.5 billion
Per Origin share(2) 5.50 6.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
$/sh
are
ORG excl APLNG
APLNG
Recent share
price (3)
Assuming the mid point of this
APLNG valuation, and based on
current share price levels(3),
the remainder of Origin’s
business has an implied FY12
P/E multiple of around 8.5xFor
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Corporate
32 |
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
33 |
Building on its domestic success, Origin is exploring for
resources in markets that offer high prospectivity and access to
growing demand…
• Low cost resources
• Fuel source of the future
• Leverage existing experience
• Low cost market entry
• Growing demand for energy
• Low regulatory environment
• Feasibility studies for PNG hydro have begun; FID expected by 2015
• Exploration continued in Chile; JV acquired additional geothermal concessions
• Exploration activities continue in Indonesia in second half FY2012
• Habanero 4 exploration well commenced drilling in March 2012
• Transform Solar completed commissioning 20 MW p.a. production line
• Exploring range of alternative pathways to scale SLIVER technology
…that will provide long term growth for Origin
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y
Thank you
Further Information
Angus Guthrie
Group Manager, Investor Relations
Email: [email protected]
Office: +61 2 8345 5558
Mobile: + 61 417 864 255
Website
www.originenergy.com.au
34 |
For
per
sona
l use
onl
y