Commuting and Rural Development - ARKChris Paris Professor of Housing Studies, University of Ulster 11.10 Coffee 11.30 Commuting and impacts on sustainability Karen Donegan, Transport

ARK Rural Development Council

Commuting and Rural Development: Building the Picture

Canada Room Queen's University Belfast

11 November 2002


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The Rural Development Council (RDC) exists to address the needs of deprived rural areas in Northern Ireland. The RDC believes that rural communities play a vital and significant role in the economic, social and environmental life of the whole region of Northern Ireland. Their contribution should be regarded as a valuable regional resource and is one that the RDC actively supports, encourages and develops.

www.rdc.org.uk

ARK is the Northern Ireland Social and Political Archive. Its aim is to make material on the social and political life of Northern Ireland accessible to the widest possible audience. ARK is a joint project between Queen's University Belfast and University of Ulster.

www.ark.ac.uk


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Contents Executive Summary 3

Introduction 6

Format of the seminar 7

RDC/ARK: Towards a Typology of Rural Areas 8

Changing Political Geography of Irish Housing 12

Travel Behaviour Sustainability – A Strategy for its Assessment 15

Rural Planning 17

Update on Census 2001

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Topics arising from the Discussion Session 22

Overarching Messages and Conclusions 24

Issues for Future Research 25

Map 1 Map 2 Map 3 Map 4 Map 5 Map 6 Map 7


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Executive Summary This one-day multi-disciplinary seminar that had three aims: ? ? Firstly, it would bring together people from different sectors and disciplines, but whose work

was complementary. This includes academics, policy makers and practitioners with an interest in planning, transport, housing and rural issues.

? ? Secondly, it would provide a forum for presentations on individual projects and ongoing research.

? ? Thirdly, it would facilitate discussion and debate about a range of relevant issues, and hopefully encourage ideas for future work.

Each seminar paper contributed a number of key messages which are summarised below. Together, they suggest some important overarching policy and planning issues which need further consideration. Toward a Typology of Rural Areas The typology identifies a band of particularly marginal rural wards in the west and north which will require local development solutions to address this specific problems. There is evidence (supported by other presentations during the seminar) of “lifestyle areas” developing in the north east and south east of Northern Ireland. These represent the stretching of the travel to work area of Belfast, and have implications for local social inclusion or displacement. There is a need to gain a better understanding of the contrasting social and economic circumstances of rural areas across Northern Ireland via systematic use of more localised (community/area) baselining exercises Changing Political Geography of Irish Housing There is a need to examine patterns in the provision of social housing, particularly in rural areas and where house prices are higher in relation to local average incomes. Housing in general, and home-owning in particular, is moving away from metropolitan to country areas, yet jobs have tended to remain disproportionately in the metropolitan areas. This means that a growing number of people are travelling to work outside the area where they live Planning restrictions may mean an increasing number of lower income buyers are priced out of the market in some areas. Commuting and Impacts on Sustainability Travel behaviour is an important indicator of lifestyle choices. Increased affluence is correlated with increased mobility and a decentralisation of residential areas. These have implications for land use planning and sustainable development.


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The survey findings presented suggest that a very low percentage of people outside Belfast use public transport to travel to work, possibly because bus stops, and bus and train stations, are too far away from many rural households. The findings also suggest that current patterns of suburbanisation are associated with a culture that is incompatible with sustainable development. Rural Planning A number of unique difficulties face planning in Northern Ireland with the convergence of trends towards a mobile society and cultural 'attachment' to the land. The issue of new dwellings in rural areas is more pronounced in the Republic of Ireland where 30,000 dwellings are built per annum compared to 3,000 in Northern Ireland and 2,500 in England Scotland and Wales. However, the numbers may be significantly increasing in Northern Ireland. This is compounded by the increasing average size of new homes in the countryside, which tend to be twice that of homes in towns. The extent to which second homes built in the countryside for ‘tourism purposes’ may be more likely to receive planning permission than new homes for local residents needs to be examined. The possibility should also be examined that suburbanisation and rural housing are drawing populations away from district towns and thereby perhaps undermining or changing the role of district towns as service centres. Overarching Messages and Conclusions Drawing from the insights provided by the papers as a whole, and from the subsequent discussion amongst participants, it is vital to trace the connections and implications for rural and sustainable development, as well as for regional planning which result from the trend of increased mobility and commuting. Issues of equity and sustainability lie at the heart of this consideration, as do the role and place of rural communities as regional resources. It is therefore imperative to analyse who currently lives and works in rural areas and why they do so. In this way, we can gain a better understanding of the role these areas play, which may lead to developing a consensus around land use planning. Equally important is the need to assess the balances which have to be struck between urban and rural growth, the pattern of service provision, and between metropolitan and more rural economic development. Given the different overall patterns demonstrated by the typology, the potential role and importance of area partnerships as a mechanism for mediating planning with local social and economic circumstances is highlighted.


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Issues for future research Based on the key messages emerging from the presentations, as well as from the discussion with participants, we suggest the following as a (by no means exhaustive) set of key study issues that need to be explored in order to inform thinking: ? ? What are measurable community indicators? ? ? What are the impacts of commuters and second homes on rural areas/communities? ? ? What are the scale and effects of the closure of facilities in rural areas, for example, community

halls, post offices and primary schools? ? ? How much polarisation is there within rural areas, for example, 'indigenous' rural population

versus 'blow-ins', rich versus poor, Protestant/Loyalist versus Catholic/Nationalist. ? ? What is the scale of gentrification of rural areas? What does this mean for those among the

'indigenous' rural population on low incomes? ? ? What is the future of farming? For example, how many rural farms survive by selling off pieces

of their land for building sites? ? ? How dependent are rural communities on cars? Do rural communities use cars more? What

mileage do rural people do? ? ? Development of objective indicators of sustainability. ? ? How do particular subgroups of people moving into rural areas affect community development

and service provision, since each subgroup will have different demands and needs, for example, older people, commuters etc?

? ? The role of housing associations and the factors helping or hindering them to meet targets in

providing social housing options for local low income families. This is vital if homelessness and displacement are not to increase in coming years.

? ? A key element of sustainable development may be the balance between the proportion of new

housing in brownfield sites as counter measures to trends toward suburbanisation, not only in terms of land-use management but in associated patterns in the use of public transport, cycling and walking.


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Introduction This report is based on a seminar on commuting and rural development held on 11 November 2002, which was jointly organised by ARK and the Rural Development Council (RDC). The idea for the seminar came about when ARK was working with the RDC baseline project to develop a typology of rural areas. In this work, we were examining the effects of many factors, such as housing, demography, employment, education, transport. During our discussions, we realised that there were probably other people in Northern Ireland working on complementary projects or using the same data but in different ways. Some of these possibly overlapped with the work we were doing. Therefore, we saw the value in having a one-day multi-disciplinary seminar that had three aims: ? ? Firstly, it would bring together people from different sectors and disciplines, but whose work

was complementary. This includes academics, policy makers and practitioners with an interest in planning, transport, housing and rural issues.

? ? Secondly, it would provide a forum for presentations on individual projects and ongoing research.

? ? Thirdly, it would facilitate discussion and debate about a range of relevant issues, and hopefully encourage ideas for future work.

The morning session consisted of four complementary papers which built up a picture of patterns of commuting and rural development, whilst also highlighting the policy and planning implications. It is important not to think about these presentations as being stand-alone. Together they provide a multi-layered picture of how housing, transport, employment and planning, and other factors interact with each other, and how these impact on the future development and sustainability of rural and non rural areas in Northern Ireland. The afternoon session focused on future development in this area. A discussion session provided participants with the opportunity to interpret and respond to the morning's presentations. Following this, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency outlined the timetable for outputs from the 2001 Census. The seminar ended with a plenary session drawing together responses from the discussion group, as well as suggestions for future work. We hope that you find this report useful and informative, as well as thought-provoking. Paula Devine, ARK Katrina Lloyd, ARK Nick Mack, RDC


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Format of the seminar 10.00 Introduction

ARK and RDC 10.10 'Towards a Typology of Rural Areas'

Nick Mack Rural Baseline Project, Rural Development Council

Paula Devine ARK, based at the Institute of Governance, Public Policy and Social Research, Queen's University Belfast

Katrina Lloyd, ARK, based at the Institute of Governance, Public Policy and Social Research, Queen's University Belfast

10.40 Changing Political Geography of Irish Housing

Chris Paris Professor of Housing Studies, University of Ulster

11.10 Coffee 11.30 Commuting and impacts on sustainability

Karen Donegan, Transport Research Institute - Northern Ireland Centre, Queen's University Belfast

12.00 Rural planning Billy Robinson, Principal Planning Officer, Coleraine Planning Division

12.30 Lunch 1.30 Discussion Session: Policy and Planning Implications 2.30 Update on Census 2001

Robert Beatty, Principal, Demography and Methodology Branch, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

3.00 Concluding remarks: Further research and analysis 4.00 Finish


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RDC/ARK: Towards a Typology of Rural Areas Nick Mack, Paula Devine and Katrina Lloyd Introduction and Context The Rural Development Council (RDC) recently completed a baseline exercise drawing together a range of secondary data and mapping them using Geographic Information Systems (GIS)1. The exercise had a number of objectives ? ? To provide information to assist the targeting of programme resources. ? ? To help ‘Rural Proofing’ of policies and programmes (before and after). ? ? To assist in monitoring and evaluation. ? ? To build a better picture of overall patterns and trends in social and economic activity and the

relationship between rural and urban or ‘rural in the region’. The baseline was prepared in response to a lack of clear information about the situation and roles of rural areas in Northern Ireland. This understanding is particularly important for a range of policy areas, for example: ? ? Department for Regional Development (DRD)’s Regional Strategic Framework, which will

influence the overall relationships between rural and urban areas across Northern Ireland flowing from spatial development choices.

? ? The new Regional Transport Strategy, with implications for impacts on movements of people and patterns of economic development.

? ? The preparation of a Sustainable Development Strategy with implications for management of natural resources, but also social, community, quality of life and lifestyle choices.

? ? The current Public Administration Review, which addresses key issues such as access to services, distribution of public sector activity, organisation of administrative areas, and rural proofing.

? ? Rural Proofing itself as a part of the Programme for Government, which will seek to ensure that new policies do not operate in a manner which is unfair to those living or working in rural areas.

Many of the datasets available from statutory sources are geared to comparing Northern Ireland with the rest of the United Kingdom or the European Union. There is a lot less capacity to look at patterns within the region. In addition to these key policy areas, rural development itself places emphasis on a local context as it is concerned with: ? ? Differences across the Northern Ireland and issues of spatial equity, uneven development,

market failure and associated social need. ? ? The ‘rural’; as a resource, building on cultural economies of difference and authenticity, and

also the social cohesion of rural communities. A survey conducted by RDC in 1996 showed that 80% of people in rural communities lived there to be near their families, and over 80% felt that community was important to them. It would be interesting to repeat this exercise today.

Local Area strategies are in the ascendancy through Local Strategic Partnerships, LEADER + and a variety of other partnership initiatives, providing opportunities for building on specific areas strengths and roles to build regional competitiveness, sustainability and inclusivity.

1 Baseline reports can be obtained from the RDC on request


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Socio-economically, two strong trends are particularly important at this time for rural change: ? ? The increasing pressure for re-structuring in farming and the potential loss of many smaller

farms. These create a ‘vacuum’ in land use and associated patterns of development or new opportunities for re-deployment to build attractiveness and competitiveness in new ways.

? ? An increasingly mobile society moving away from ‘Communities of Place’ and toward ‘Communities of Choice’ overlaid on a non-mobile one which is acting to re-shape social exclusion. Lifestyles are based on ‘the arena society model’ in which people live in one place, work in another, and access a range of amenities and services from a wide area around them.

These policy and socio-economic trends are examples illustrating the need for a ‘bigger picture’ understanding of relative change across Northern Ireland. Monitoring Change A range of different tools are in development to try to target resources and inform policy: ? ? The Robson Index of relative deprivation has now been replaced by the Noble measures of

deprivation. However, the latter is not very rural friendly for a variety of reasons. For example, low incomes are not a feature, poor and affluent households are often close together, and the access to service weighting is low.

? ? The Urban Rural Definition Group consists of Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

(NISRA) statisticians from across Government departments. This group has developed a 9 Point ‘hierarchy’ ‘shading from urban to rural’. It is due to report in Summer 2003, although progress has stalled until NISRA have upgraded their GIS system to a new postcoded output area format.

? ? The ESPON (European Spatial Planning Observation Network) Programme under INTERREG

III includes various spatial thematic studies, of which urban/rural relations is one. ? ? Typologies – these are still under development. They are based on classifying different

administrative units according to a small set of key indicators. Rural Proofing seeks to make policy development more sensitive to the ‘particular characteristics’ of rural areas. However there is no one ‘rural’ which operates in the same way everywhere.

The RDC, working with ARK, has been exploring a typology ‘from the bottom up’, working with emerging trends and patterns in the data rather than administrative units. A key pattern prompting the work was the proportion of people travelling to work outside their district council area (Map 1). The pattern shows three semi circular bands moving east to west from the Belfast Metropolitan Area. The pattern relates in part to the distribution of car ownership. Areas with higher levels of new car registrations show a concentration in and around the major urban centres although there has been a widespread increase in car ownership over the past 10 years. (Map 2). If car registrations are examined in relation to population figures, patterns emerge showing areas where there are more persons per car or effectively, that access to a private car for some is lower, whereas in other areas, car access is as high as one car per person, what we might call transport rich. (Map 3). It is useful to explore demographic characteristics when creating typologies. In particular, we calculated the ratio of the population aged 60 years and over to those aged 15 and under, for each ward. Based on this information, Map 4 shows that shows clusters in the North Coast and North


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Down/Ards, which can be associated with retirement destinations on the coast, but also clusters associated with district towns. These probably represent movements of older people nearer to services, but is this by choice or by necessity? Since family and rootedness are important in rural areas, this may not be entirely by choice and suggests a basis for targeted follow-up research. The next stage of the project was to combine these data and look for patterns of association between them. This created clusters of wards that have similar attributes. Distinct clusters were created using age, birth rates, car ownership, commuting and unemployment levels, and the results are shown in Map 5. The green areas, mostly in the west and north, are those with higher than average unemployment, lower than average travel to work and lower than average car ownership. We might describe these as marginal rural wards. They are outside of the ‘Commuter Zone’ for Belfast so commuting there is not an option. These clusters also had an associated lower birth rate, so perhaps they are also declining demographically, but they are not associated with a higher proportion of older people. The red and orange bands around Belfast illustrate a peri-urban population orientated to work in the city. There is also an extended arm upwards into the north and along the motorway to the south. The orange areas are associated with an older population and lower average birth rate. This may be a mixture of retired person households and commuters. The red areas also have an older population but an average or higher than average birth rate. In all, these clusters seem to be populated by older (possibly more middle class) commuter families. The yellow areas show a mixed pattern of medium (average) travel to work, car ownership and unemployment, but a higher than average birth rate looked at over a five year period, and a young population. Perhaps this is related to house prices and affordability? In the case of Moyle, the green ‘Marginal’ wards are joined by the orange ‘older commuter’ wards. We suggest these latter are defining what we might call ‘lifestyle’ areas, ones in which there are higher levels of commuting and employment as well as higher levels of older people, all coming to live in the area for lifestyle choices. In Map 6, areas demonstrating high house price to income ratios have been added to the pattern – particularly high ratios are found in the north (Moyle and Ballymoney). This reinforces our suspicion of ‘lifestyle’ areas in which a local economy of relatively low incomes is overlaid by a mobile commuter-based population and retirees helping to push house prices up. Often found close to the district towns are those wards coloured blue (high unemployment, low travel outside the district, low car ownership). These wards also show a polarised population profile featuring both a higher than average proportion of older people yet also consistently higher than average birth rates looked at over five years. Perhaps this is shaped by the ‘lifecycle’ of new housing developments – maturing from younger first time buyer estates next door to older estates where families or children have moved on, leaving an older estate community. Light blue wards are found only in the east. These are differentiated from their dark blue counterparts by their higher levels of commuting – sharing the overall pattern of commuting for the east but still demonstrating pockets of high unemployment. Map 7 shows that locations of larger businesses are also associated with the distribution of red and orange wards. These businesses will be providing local employment opportunities but it is evident that this is not necessarily acting against commuting. What they share in common is an association with a good road network. The local economy may not be providing the kind of wages and professional employment which is sought by those commuting.


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Further Work These are preliminary findings that help to demonstrate the value of building a typology of rural areas by highlighting different underlying social and economic trends which can be related in particular to the roads infrastructure. The next step is to explore these initial clusters in more detail to see if they relate to real and meaningful differences in circumstances on the ground. Our plans for this include: ? ? Beacon Communities: working at community level to explore in detail a range of social,

economic and service-related issues sampled across the different areas suggested by the typology.

? ? 2001 Census: updating the patterns shown using the latest census data. The current patterns are

based on population estimates but commuting patterns in particular are restricted to 1991 data. How will things have changed in the intervening period?

? ? Area Mapping exercises: working at District and Local Strategic Partnership levels to explore

the typology in more detail and drawing upon local knowledge of the area. ? ? Monitoring change over time: over the years, successive updates can help build a picture of

change and perhaps help to make stronger connections to causal factors. ? ? Adding more data as datasets are updated will also be a means to test the robustness of the

clusters Key Issues Emerging It is clear that the Belfast Metropolitan Area has a strong influence on settlement and work – which is less well evidenced for district towns. To what extent is this acting to impede local economic development? Will the Regional Strategic Framework provide ‘counterpoints’ in the west to the gravitational pull of the Belfast Metropolitan Area? How will the regional transport strategy help or hinder this? Farming as a development buffer – if farm families reduce in number, what happens to the land? Could urban pressures lead to an accelerated ‘consumption’ of key areas for urban out-migration and lifestyle objectives, particularly in the east? Modulated development strategies - in the Republic of Ireland, border and western areas are still Objective 1 regions whilst elsewhere this has been lost. This recognises the strong differences in development in these areas. Perhaps a similar modulated approach is required here between the east and west. If modulated, do we look for a greater focus on local development models in the west and a more sub regional management of space in the east? What happens in the middle band? Adding the picture of natural resources complicates things even more, especially when key Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty are found in the east where development pressures are high. DRD has been thinking about area partnerships as a tool for modulating planning across Northern Ireland. This picture of rural areas would suggest this is an important policy area to explore.


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Changing Political Geography of Irish Housing Chris Paris This talk draws on recent and ongoing work on housing and urban-regional change in Ireland (Paris, 2001; Paris and Robson, 2001). It presents an overview of Irish housing systems in 1991, and outlined the changing context of housing in Ireland. When considering housing in Northern Ireland, reference must be made to the Republic of Ireland, especially around the border counties, as what is happening in the latter impacts on the housing market in Northern Ireland. In addition, there were many similarities between the housing systems in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland up to the early 1990s. Recent housing market changes in both jurisdictions, therefore, have occurred within similar economic and demographic contexts. In Northern Ireland, there had been slow economic growth and high unemployment up to 1991, while the Republic’s economy had been characterised by a ‘stop-start’ pattern of growth during the 1960s and 1970s, followed by an economic crisis in the 1980s. In terms of demography, there was slow population growth in both the Republic and in Northern Ireland as a result of high net out-migration, particularly in the Republic of Ireland. The impact of both the economic and demographic factors on the two housing markets up to 1991, therefore, was that there was low housing demand and slow house price growth. Housing policies across Ireland have also had an impact on the housing market in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. For example, planning regimes have tended to be much more permissive in both jurisdictions within Ireland than in Britain and much of the public housing stock has been sold off, especially in the Republic of Ireland. Within Northern Ireland, there is also the added and distinctive context of conflict and ethno-religious segregation which has had a major impact on the housing market here (Adair et al, 2000). People who could afford to move out of areas with ethno/political problems did so, leaving behind an increasingly marginalised population within both religious communities, marked by violence on the streets at ‘interface’ flash points (Murtagh, 2001). During the 1990s, however, a number of changes took place in both Northern Ireland and in the Republic of Ireland that have had a major impact on housing in both jurisdictions. In Northern Ireland, there has been significant real economic growth, partly as a result of the ‘peace process’ while more rapid economic growth has taken place in the Republic’s ‘Celtic Tiger’ economy (Clinch et al, 2001). As a result, there has been a turnaround in the pattern of migration, with more people coming into Ireland than leaving it. In the Republic of Ireland, there has been the added impact of an influx of ‘asylum seekers’ over the past few years. Economic growth, together with a migration ‘turnaround’, has led to surging demand for additional housing; such demand has also been further fuelled by the trend in falling household size. To cope with this demand, there has been very strong growth in new private housing construction, especially in the Republic. The growth of private sector housing output has been slower in the North, where recent policy changes have seen a fall in new social housing starts, especially following the switch of new social housing construction from the Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE) to housing associations in the late 1990s. The inevitable result of the increase in housing demand is that there has been strong house price growth in the Republic of Ireland, especially in Dublin, and while the growth in prices in the North was somewhat slower, this has accelerated since 1996, as a result of both the peace process and as a secondary effect of the Republic of Ireland boom (Adair et al, 2001; Berry et al, 2001). Low interest rates have also contributed to the growth in housing demand.


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However, the main trend that has been occurring in house building throughout Ireland is that more and more new developments are being built ever further from large cities such as Belfast and Dublin (Horner, 1999). According to the Irish Auctioneers and Valuers Institute 1999 Property Survey:

The so-called "commuter belt" stretched and strained so much this past year that it needed to be made of elastic, as gussets were stitched into towns and villages in its rounded compass to make way for new housing in every nook and cranny.

Although there has been some inner city area regeneration in both Belfast and Dublin, this has been much more marked in the latter, especially around the Temple Bar and Docklands area. Cities such as Cork, Galway, Limerick and Sligo have also experienced rapid expansion. In the North, since 1995, there has been a strong outward expansion of Derry/Londonderry which has extended across the Border into the Republic. In addition, most of the houses that have been sold off by the NIHE have been outside the metropolitan areas. This means that home-ownership is much higher in the countryside and most of the social sector new build is occurring within Belfast and Derry/Londonderry. Thus, across Ireland, housing in general, and home-ownership in particular, is moving from metropolitan to country areas. In contrast, many commentators believe that jobs have tended to remain disproportionately in the metropolitan areas – though this may need to be examined in rather more detail. What is clear, however, is that more and more people are travelling to work from outside the area in which they live. The roads programmes that have taken place in Ireland have also stimulated ‘rural’ demand as people have better transport systems to take them to work. It is no longer necessary to live and work in the same area. This metropolitan de-concentration can be clearly seen from the Census of Population figures reported by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. These figures show that from 1991 to 2001, there has been a marked decline in the size of the population in Belfast City and an increase in the size of the population in areas such as the North Coast and the Border districts. There has been a ‘hollowing out’ of people especially from Belfast City. However, the largest growth has been in the outer metropolitan areas. This change is reflected in the percentage of housing starts across Northern Ireland with most house building occurring in the outer metropolitan areas. Much of this change has been fuelled by the more permissive planning policies in Northern Ireland than in England, where planning regimes are much more strict. This move from town to country living may be considered as a ‘gentrification’ of the countryside. Due to the rise in house prices in rural areas, many local people cannot afford to live there. Wealthier people may be buying most of the new houses, either as first or second homes. These people commute to work in urban areas and may contribute little to the country areas in which their houses are located. However, the new Regional Development Strategy in Northern Ireland and the National Spatial Strategy in the Republic may signal dramatic changes for planning regimes in both jurisdictions. In Northern Ireland, this new planning strategy will have an impact on many different areas such as the environment and housing. Overall, there may be a clash between the Government, with its preference for ‘urban renaissance’ and the desire of more and more people to live outside urban areas and in the countryside. Issues are beginning to arise in Northern Ireland that have been debated in England for many years such as building new houses on ‘brownfield’ sites using land such as school playing fields, parks and other ‘old’ land. More and more in Northern Ireland there is also the issue of NIMBY (Not in My Back Yard) that has been occurring in England over the years.


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One question that needs to be asked is whether building is being restricted in the very areas of population growth. If this is the case, will it mean that increasingly lower income buyers will be priced out of the market and forced to live in a residualised social sector? It would appear that the answer to these questions is ‘yes’ if planning permission is restricted in country areas and the main emphasis is on building on brownfield sites. The final part of the talk examines the winners and losers in the housing boom in Ireland (Drudy and Punch, 2002). The main winners in both jurisdictions are homeowners, including those who have purchased discounted social sector dwellings, and investors. The winners also include financiers, speculators, exchange professionals, landowners and developers. The main losers have been first time buyers who are priced out of the market, those on low incomes and people in housing need. In Northern Ireland, there is the added problem that homelessness might increase as housing associations fail to meet their development targets. References Adair, A et al (2000) 'The local housing system in Craigavon: ethno-religious residential segregation, socio-tenurial polarisation and submarkets,' Urban Studies, 37:7, pp. 1079-1092. Adair, A et al (2001) 'The changing housing market', in Paris, C (ed.) Housing in Northern Ireland, Policy and Practice Series, CIH: Coventry, pp. 63-77. Berry, J et al (2001) 'Government intervention and impact on the housing market in Greater Dublin', Housing Studies, 16:6, pp. 755-770. Clinch, P et al (2002) After the Celtic Tiger, O’Brien Press: Dublin. Drudy, P J and Punch, M (2002) 'Housing models and inequality: perspectives on recent Irish experience', Housing Studies, 17:4, pp. 657-672. Horner, A (1999) 'Population dispersion and development in a changing city-region', in Killen, J and MacLaren, A (eds.) Dublin: Contemporary Trends and Issues for the Twenty-First Century, Geographical Society of Ireland and Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, Trinity College: Dublin. Murtagh, B (2001) 'Integrated social housing in Northern Ireland', Housing Studies, 16:6, pp. 771-789. Paris, C (ed.) (2001) Housing in Northern Ireland, Policy and Practice Series, CIH: Coventry. Paris, C and Robson, T (2001) Housing in the Irish Border Counties: contrasting images, continuity and change, Northern Ireland Housing Executive and the Department of the Environment and Local Government, Belfast and Dublin.


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Travel Behaviour Sustainability - A Strategy for its Assessment Karen Donegan The issue of travel behaviour is about much more than just government initiatives aimed at changing travel behaviour such as road pricing, integrated transport, bus priority lanes and cycle paths. It is also about land-use planning and lifestyle choices. These factors are important because the impact of increased affluence, greater mobility and advances in transport technology have all encouraged the decentralisation of residential areas, retail outlets and employment opportunities. In this way, land-use and travel patterns have reinforced each other in the emergence of a more dispersed, highly mobile and car dependent society. This study presents a first attempt at researching length of household occupancy in respect of travel behaviour. In order to confront the sustainability issues of lifestyle and land-use it is necessary to be able to quantify the sustainability of household travel behaviour. The research presented in this paper set out to develop a dedicated model which produces a household index of travel behaviour sustainability (HSI). The model focuses on the implications of suburbanisation for travel behaviour and sustainability as a result of urban overspill on dormitory settlements. It seeks to test the hypothesis that current trends in suburbanisation are militating against the aims of sustainable development, whereby people in selecting their living environment, fail to reconcile their lifestyle and travel patterns with appropriate sustainability indicators. The research corresponds with two questions raised by a consultation document developed by the then Department of the Environment in 1997 entitled ‘Shaping Our Future’: ? ? What choice of development opportunities is consistent with a long term sustainable approach

to regional development? ? ? Is it possible to set new directions in relation to the future pattern of development, in order to

produce a better outcome for the region? To answer these questions, this initial research considers four settlement classes within one key commuter corridor of the Belfast City Region and attempts to assess their comparative sustainability in terms of travel behaviour. Because pressure for development is greatest to the south and east of the city, the southern approach corridor provides an appropriate mix of settlement classes. These range from: the inner/middle city brownfield/infill sites (Dublin Road, Ormeau Road and Ravenhill Road) through Fourwinds on the edge of the city, Knockmore (a dormitory area of Lisburn), to Moira (a typical suburbanised village situated at the southern edge of the green belt surrounding the Belfast Urban Area). The framework for the research was constructed from expert opinion using sustainability attributes, and focused on the people living in the different settlement areas, on their travel behaviour, their choices and their attitudes The main aim of the research was to formulate a methodology which was capable of wider application and which supported planning policy considerations. It was also to establish a consensus checklist of travel behaviour indicators reflecting sustainability as a basis for comparing community settlements and as a basis for comparing households in different areas.


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The research had three phases: ? ? Phase 1 - Expert Opinion. ? ? Phase 2 - Household Survey -1,000 households (94% response rate). ? ? Phase 3 - Integration of the two above to create a Household Sustainability Index. The findings from the research indicated that, overall, established residents (those who had lived in the area for five years or more) were more sustainable than those who had lived in the area for less than 5 years (newcomers). This was especially true in Belfast with the main difference between Belfast and Knockmore. This difference was statistically significant. Car ownership was high as was car dependency across all areas. However, 20% of respondents living in inner Belfast did not have a car compared to no respondents living in the Fourwinds area. Indeed, over two-thirds (68%) of respondents living in Fourwinds had two or more cars. The figure for both Moira and Knockmore was 62% while only 32% of people in inner Belfast had 2 or more cars. This may reflect a better public transport system in urban areas. The travel to work behaviour of respondents was examined and three modes of transport were identified - self-propelled (including walking or cycling), private and public. The figures show that with respect to Earner 1 within a household, 31% in inner Belfast used self-propelled methods of transport to work compared with only 1% in Knockmore. In general, there is little use of public transport, with the highest figure only 13% in inner Belfast and the lowest (1%) in Fourwinds. This is despite a good Translink bus service which runs from Fourwinds into Belfast City Centre. Approximately 5% of people use public transport to get to work in Moira. Moira has a good bus/rail service but it does take some people 30-40 minutes to get to their nearest bus stop or railway station. When questioned, most people believed that a more acceptable walking distance to public transport was around 5-9 minutes. In terms of sustainability, the survey found that, overall, there was an effect of length of residency on travel behaviour. Newcomers were less sustainable than established residents. This was most noticeable within Belfast where fewer newcomers than established residents used self-propelled methods of transport to work. Newcomers in inner-city and middle-city Belfast behave in a more similar way to established residents in Belfast than compared to their peers in greenfield sites. This finding has important implications for future land-use planning as it suggests that if newcomers can be attached to brownfield sites, they will tend to behave more sustainably. Residential developments on brownfield sites have a significant positive impact on sustainability, while suburbanisation is reinforcing a culture that is incompatible with sustainable development. References Department of the Environment for Northern Ireland (1997) Shaping Our Future, Department of the Environment: Belfast


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Rural Planning Billy Robinson This presentation examines many of the issues mentioned in the previous talks - from the perspective of a planner working in Northern Ireland. As with many issues in Northern Ireland, it is necessary to root any discussion on planning in the cultural context of the area. There have been many changes noted in planning over the last 30 years which have had an enormous effect on the landscape and environment of Northern Ireland. In Ireland generally, there was a move away from the countryside after the Famine in the 1840s. However, deep in the Irish psyche is an attachment to the land. There is a feeling that there is security/continuity in working the land, and as a result rural landowners, having wrestled control of the land they work from landlords in a previous generation, are not inclined to now relinquish their unfettered development rights of that same land to the state. Thus the whole idea of planning control does not sit comfortably within either Northern Ireland or the Republic of Ireland. People in Britain find this concept difficult to understand, as there does not appear to be the same attachment to land there. As other speakers have said, there is another layer to be taken into account in Northern Ireland, that is, sectarianism. Thus there are a number of difficulties facing planning here in the form of myriad conflicts of interest - landowners/tenants, urban/rural, Protestant/Catholic, rich/poor. The question to be answered is 'What are the goals of planning in Northern Ireland?'. In England, things are more straightforward in that planning has 'signed up' to green belts. There has been rationalisation in the countryside and a general move from small farms to very large farms. Coupled with the problems of BSE and Foot and Mouth disease, changes in rural areas have led to a crisis in agriculture. Nonetheless, the number of new dwellings in rural areas has been growing and is continuing to grow in the United Kingdom, especially in Northern Ireland. However, the numbers are relatively small when compared to the Republic of Ireland. There are around 2,500 dwellings built in rural areas in England, Scotland and Wales per year and 3,000 in Northern Ireland per year. This compares with 30,000 per year in rural areas in the Republic of Ireland. However, there is increasing concern about the countryside in Northern Ireland. The speaker's own experience of working in the Coleraine area is that there has been an increase from around 80 new dwellings per year on rural sites to over 300 in the last year. This is a massive increase and there is no sign of it abating. His figures show that in 1999, 192 houses were built in rural areas, in 2000 this rose to 244 and by 2001 the figure was 302. This means that the figure for houses being built in rural areas around Coleraine has risen by over 50% in just three years. One of the anomalies within the planning system is that it can depend on the purpose to which a dwelling is to be put that can determine whether planning permission is granted. As more and more people want second homes in the country it is possible to seek approval for multiple dwellings. If the title 'tourism' is put on it then planning permission is more likely to be granted. This can appear to be a crazy system, when for example, on Rathlin Island residents have to show need before they can get approval to build but outsiders can come in and get permission to build for 'tourism' as long as the properties are occupied seasonally. This adds another 'twist' in the development of demand in the countryside.


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There have been changes in the spatial distribution of dwellings in the countryside. In the early years the distribution was random but since the post-war period there has been much more roadside development where dwellings are built very close to roads. Thus there has been realignment with dwellings no longer built randomly across the countryside. This has implications for the landscape of the countryside. Until the 1950s there was a very intimate 'tight' landscape with character - now the countryside is becoming more and more open. Now that there is more access to transport the roads have been widened and there are fewer hedgerows. This changes the character of the landscape in the countryside. Another factor that is often overlooked, but is important, is the increasing size of dwellings in rural areas. The majority used to be around 1,000 square feet with 3 bedrooms but now the average size is twice this while the average size of dwellings in towns is still around 1,000 square feet. Who lives in these new dwellings in the countryside? In the old days new dwellings in rural areas were built for farmer's sons or to house retired farmers while their sons took over the running of the farm. This is still true in some cases, but it is becoming more and more for new dwellings in the countryside to house urban dwellers. To all intents and purposes the lives of these residents are based on urban living - they work, shop and send their children to school in urban areas. They do not involve themselves in country life - they just dwell there. Increased affluence and mobility have enabled people to take advantage of the new developments in rural areas and they are consequently moving further and further away from urban areas to travel to work. The movement out of Belfast and towns is accelerating, as noted by the search for planning permission. Thus we have a paradox where local politicians are demanding more and more dwellings to sustain rural communities but the only people gaining access to these dwellings are urban people who want the good life of the countryside but make no contribution to rural life. As a result, country dwellers living in these rural areas are being priced out of the market. They cannot afford to buy in these areas any longer. Farmers can sell land to developers to make money for themselves but the dwellings that are built are being bought by people who have no commitment to country life. Summary There is an agricultural crisis in the countryside and the future is unknown for families who have farmed for generations. Over the past 10 years or so, planning has enabled farmers to supplement their incomes by selling land for development. There is the additional 'twist' of second homes, which provide investment opportunities. This is 'hyping up' demand in many places such as the North Coast and elsewhere. The paradox is that there is a growing population decline in the Belfast City Area and many district towns are only just maintaining their population while the size of the population in rural areas is increasing. Yet at the same time the infrastructure in these rural areas is in decline. The simple solution being propounded by politicians is to build more houses in the countryside but this is not the answer, as it does not sustain country living.


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Update on Census 2001 Robert Beatty One of the main sources of information about the Northern Ireland population is the Census. As the Census is carried out every ten years, researchers can examine issues over time such as population growth, location and travel to work areas. This presentation discusses the conduct of the 2001 Census and outlined the timetable for Census outputs. In 1991, census statistics were produced for everyone who filled in a census form. This represented about 99% of the population. In 2001, there was an anticipation that people may be less willing to comply with official enquiries, and that the response rate might reduce. At the same time, there was a user demand for statistics that reflected the whole population. The Census Office, along with counterparts in Great Britain, developed a methodology to adjust census output for under-enumeration. This adjustment was based on a Census Coverage Survey which consisted of a face to face interview with 10,000 households in Northern Ireland. There were 300,000 households in the United Kingdom as a whole. This Survey asked for information on who was in the household on Census Day (29 April 2001), and thus provided estimates for the characteristics and numbers of people who were not included in the Census. Census Geography Northern Ireland has 26 District Council Areas (DCAs) and 582 Electoral wards, each consisting of about 3,000 people in 1,000 households. There are approximately 5,000 Output Areas (OA), which are aggregates of unit postcodes. For output purposes, the most similar postcodes are aggregated, based on the household structure and tenure type. Further information is provided on the NISRA website (www.nisra.gov.uk). The average OA has about 100-125 households, thus minimising the risk of disclosing individual information. In 1991, the smallest unit of analysis was the Enumeration District. Timetable of Census Outputs Population Counts Date: 30 September 2002 The population counts show that there were 1,685,267 people in Northern Ireland on Census Day. These counts are available by DCA and can be found on the NISRA website. There were 58,789,194 people in total in the UK. Thus, Northern Ireland represents 2.87% of the UK population (this was 2.8% in 1991), In terms of age, 24% of the Northern Ireland population is under the age of 16 years while the comparable figure for the UK as a whole is 20%. While the population in Northern Ireland has increased by 5% since 1991, there are fewer young people aged under 16, and 10% less in the pre school age group. The number of pensioners has increased by 7% since 1991. In terms of location of the population, the number of people living in Belfast DCA has decreased by 5%, but other DCAs have increased by at least 4%. These trend figures are based on 2001 mid year estimates.


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Key Statistics Date: December 2002 These will consist of basic percentages and counts of all census questions for all areas in Northern Ireland, for example, ethnic minorities, religion, occupation, carers, long-term health, access to car etc. A printed report will show data at Northern Ireland and DCA level. Ward and OA data will be available on CD and on the Internet. Date: March 2003 A wide range of crosstabulated census information, for example ethnic origin by age. A printed volume will be published with statistics at the Northern Ireland level, while information for other geographic areas down to electoral ward will be available on CD and on the Internet. However, these tables will not be produced at OA level due to confidentiality issues. Census Area Statistics Date: Mid 2003 (2nd quarter) A series of less detailed tables will be produced for each area at Northern Ireland, DCA, ward and OA. Because of the volume of information, this will be available only on the Internet. Origin Destination Statistics Date: Autumn 2003 (3rd quarter): These will look at migration (crosstabulations between address 1 year ago and current address) and travel to work patterns (where people live by where they work). Other work that will be produced will include a definition of rural/urban areas within Northern Ireland. NISRA is working on a definition of rural/urban in order to produce urban/rural statistics. Working definitions follow a similar structure to those used in Scotland's definition of settlements, and will be sent out for consultation in late 2002. The final definition can then be applied to census statistics. Census Dissemination The focus of dissemination of the 2001 Census will be the Internet, and census products will be part of the NISRA web site, including maps and geographic functions. All results are free to users. There will be two further published reports produced from the 2001 Census - Key Statistics (December 2002) and Standard tables (early 2003). In 1991 there were 10 published reports. Neighbourhood Information Service A pilot neighbourhood information service is already on the NISRA website, consisting of a Geographic Information System producing maps using administrative data. There will be a re-launch in Spring 2003 using census material. Time series data can also be produced, and while inter-censal comparisons cannot be made for OAs, they can be carried out for grid squares.


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User defined Tabulations Date: Mid 2003 A system will be available on the NISRA website for users to create some limited tabulations online, in addition to a service to produce ad-hoc statistics upon demand. Discussion The final section provides answers to questions from participants to Robert Beatty. ? ? The Noble index of deprivation cannot be updated using 2001 census data; for example, some of

the social security benefits have changed. However, census data will have relevance in defining disadvantaged areas, and NISRA will commission work to further examine the geographical distribution of disadvantaged areas.

? ? In 1991, students were recorded in the Census at their home address, while in 2001 they were

recorded at their term time address. For mid-year estimates, term-time address is always used, thus allowing analysis of time-trends.

? ? The census output will contain information on vacant dwellings.


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Topics arising from the Discussion Session 1 Effect of the planning process The discussion began by asking if opposition among planners and/or a slow planning process mean that the transformation of farm buildings for alternative enterprises was hindered. This was seen as necessary within the context of the changing nature and income from farming. There was a feeling that the number of derelict buildings is substantial. However, there is little interest in renovation. Factors which mitigate against renovation include grants which encourage new building, the VAT system and the local psyche which favours building anew. Therefore, it is the lack of demand that means that farm buildings are not being transformed for alternative use, rather than a slow planning process. There was then a discussion of the direction that planning policy is moving to, since environment is constantly changing. There was a feeling that it took a long time to make planning decisions, and that some of the criteria were not constant. For example, the position of septic tanks was relatively objective, but the need for hedgerows was seen as being subjective. 2 Community development Given the growth of 'commuter belts', how can we engage residents of commuter areas in developing community activity or community spirit? This issue is relevant when developing sustainable areas, for example, it is part of the ethos of the sustainable garden village currently being developed at Mallusk. However, there was the question of who exactly the community development work is for? Do commuters want to engage in the development of a sense of community anyway? It was noted that among rural Housing Executive tenants, their top concern was the provision of facilities for teenagers, for example, adequate transport. Therefore, it is important to focus on young people and teenagers within a community development context. 3 Preservation of the countryside One view was that it is too late to preserve the countryside, and that in fact the popular idea of the countryside is actually a romantic notion. The rural community feels under attack by many factors, for example, farmers have not been allowed to build new homes for their children on their land. At the same time however, buildings for tourism purposes have been given planning permission. This leads to exclusion of particular groups, such as local residents. The discussion then moved on to the idea of why people want to live in a rural area. Is it just a romantic notion of living in the countryside, or do they want to get involved in a community? However, it is not enough to just find a community - there is also the idea of making a community. Does the urbanising of rural towns and villages lead to increased or decreased services? Not only residences, but jobs, are moving, and so commuters affect an area. However, it was noted that often it is the 'blow-ins' to an area that drive the conservation lobby.


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The idea of a continuum of the rural population was discussed, ranging from: ? ? Second home. ? ? Rural dweller. ? ? Genuine commuter. ? ? Rural community. Therefore, it is important to develop some kind of typology of the people who live in rural areas. The discussion then moved to the idea of having the right to choose where we want to live. However, there is a cost to this, so should rural communities pay the full cost of their choice? Such higher costs would mean that living in the countryside would become elitist, as only the richer population could afford to live there. This would lead to increasing polarisation, for example, the 'haves' versus the 'have-nots', the 'indigenous' rural population versus the 'blow-ins'. The development of Noble indicators of deprivation have meant that it is now more difficult to see the social divisions leading to increasing polarisation.


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Overarching Messages and Conclusions Drawing from the insights provided by the papers as a whole, and from the subsequent discussion amongst participants, it is vital to trace the connections and implications for rural and sustainable development, as well as for regional planning which result from the trend of increased mobility and commuting. Issues of equity and sustainability lie at the heart of this consideration, as do the role and place of rural communities as regional resources. It is therefore imperative to analyse who currently lives and works in rural areas and why they do so. In this way, we can gain a better understanding of the role these areas play, which may lead to developing a consensus around land use planning. Equally important is the need to assess the balances which have to be struck between urban and rural growth, the pattern of service provision, and between metropolitan and more rural economic development. Given the different overall patterns demonstrated by the typology, the potential role and importance of area partnerships as a mechanism for mediating planning with local social and economic circumstances is highlighted.


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Issues for Future Research Based on the key messages emerging from the presentations, as well as from the discussion with participants, we suggest the following as a (by no means exhaustive) set of key study issues that need to be explored in order to inform thinking: ? ? What are measurable community indicators? ? ? What are the impacts of commuters and second homes on rural areas/communities? ? ? What are the scale and effects of the closure of facilities in rural areas, for example, community

halls, post offices and primary schools? ? ? How much polarisation is there within rural areas, for example, 'indigenous' rural population

versus 'blow-ins', rich versus poor, Protestant/Loyalist versus Catholic/Nationalist. ? ? What is the scale of gentrification of rural areas? What does this mean for those among the

'indigenous' rural population on low incomes? ? ? What is the future of farming? For example, how many rural farms survive by selling off pieces

of their land for building sites? ? ? How dependent are rural communities on cars? Do rural communities use cars more? What

mileage do rural people do? ? ? Development of objective indicators of sustainability. ? ? How do particular subgroups of people moving into rural areas affect community development

and service provision, since each subgroup will have different demands and needs, for example, older people, commuters etc?

? ? The role of housing associations and the factors helping or hindering them to meet targets in

providing social housing options for local low income families. This is vital if homelessness and displacement are not to increase in coming years.

? ? A key element of sustainable development may be the balance between the proportion of new

housing in brownfield sites as counter measures to trends toward suburbanisation, not only in terms of land-use management but in associated patterns in the use of public transport, cycling and walking.

Documents

Commuting and Rural Development - ARKChris Paris Professor of Housing Studies, University of Ulster 11.10 Coffee 11.30 Commuting and impacts on sustainability Karen Donegan, Transport