COMMUNITY SNAPSHOT · KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS • For the first time in half a century, the District of Columbia’s population is increasing. • The 55-and-older population has been

ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT

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MAY 2013 – FIRST EDITION

COMMUNITY SNAPSHOTA REPORT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL WELL-BEING

OF THE NATIONAL CAPITAL AREA

Prepared for United Way of the National Capital Area by the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis


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Dear Colleagues,

We are pleased to present the inaugural edition of the Community Snapshot produced in collabora-tion with the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis. The report provides a socio-eco-nomic analysis of the residents, economy and com-munities which comprise the Washington, DC re-gion and the footprint of United Way of the National Capital Area. The report has a particular focus on education, income and health— which United Ways across the country believe are the building blocks for a higher quality of life.

While some of the information presented in the report confirms what we think we know about the Washington, DC region, other data sheds light on emerging social and economic trends that are less well known and will drive the future direction of our work.

We recognize that creating a regional community that is among the best places in the nation for all people to live and work is an ongoing task. We can only succeed if individuals and organizations work together to achieve improved outcomes for our citizens. Doing so requires envisioning a high quality of life for everyone; committing to community level goals that are inspirational and achievable; and working to create the systemic changes required to meet those goals.

We invite you to join United Way of the National Capital Area and our part-ners in this important work.

Sincerely, Joseph M. Rigby and Edward C. Davies

WELCOME

Joseph M. RigbyChair, United Way of the National Capital Area

Chairman, President & CEO, Pepco Holdings, Inc.

Edward C. DaviesChair Elect, United Way of the National Capital Area

President, Unisys Federal Systems

HERE IS WHAT WE FOUND

The Washington, DC region excels in a number of key areas:

• The region has attracted people from all over the United States and around the world, and has a growing and in-creasingly diverse population.

• Our regional economy weathered the Great Recession better and rebounded faster than most of the rest of the country.

• Our workforce is among the most highly educated in the United States.

• Average wages and household incomes are higher here than almost anywhere else across the country.

• The Washington, DC region is home to excellent public schools, community colleges and institutions of higher education.

• Crime rates have fallen across the region.

In spite of our overall high quality of life, our region faces a number of critical challenges:

• There continues to be wide geographic and racial dispari-ties in terms of income, poverty and access to economic opportunity.

• Student performance on academic assessments has de-clined in middle school, and high school graduation rates are low for African American and Hispanic students.

• A substantial number of people—particularly young males—have no attachment to either school or the labor force.

• The aging of the workforce is expected to lead to a short-age of workers in key sectors.

• Migration to the region is slowing as the national econo-my improves.

• The region is in a period of slower economic growth and transition as a result of decreased Federal spending.


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United Way of the National Capital Area (United Way NCA) serves the District of Columbia and eight counties and independent cities in the Maryland and Virginia suburbs. The Washington, DC metropolitan area1—of which United Way NCA’s service area is a part—is one of the most diverse, highly educated and wealthy regions in the country. However, the overall high quality of life here is not shared by all of the region’s residents, and access to economic opportunity varies widely. In addition, the Washington, DC region faces economic challenges during the post-recession era of declin-ing Federal spending.

The future vitality of our region depends on increasing connections to economic opportunities across our communities. Persistent regional dis-parities mean that we are not achieving our full potential. Improved coop-eration across boundaries—suburb and city, poor and rich, business and government—is essential for improving economic and social conditions for all of the people of the Washington, DC region.

n METHODOLOGYThe George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, in collaboration with staff at United Way of the National Capital Area, identified more than 40 potential data points that could be used to measure the well-being of the residents, workers and neighborhoods in the Washington, DC region. The characteristics presented in this report were selected to provide a broad picture of the region, and to help United Way of the National Capital Area to identify opportunities for preparing residents for economic success.

The Washington, DC region compares favorably to many metropolitan ar-eas across the country. However, there are substantial variations within the region. As a result, much of the information in this report is presented at the jurisdiction- or neighborhood-level to highlight areas of need.

The data presented in this report were drawn primarily from government data sources, including the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Additional data were collected from state agencies and through phone calls of various institutions. Fee-based proprietary data were used for making projections.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1 The Washington, DC metropolitan statistical area includes all jurisdictions in United Way of the National Capital Area’s service area, plus Calvert, Charles, and Frederick counties in Maryland; Clarke, Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Warren counties and the City of Fredericksburg in Virginia; and Jefferson County, West Virginia.

n WHAT’S INSIDEPopulation & Demographics...................................................................

Economy & Employment.........................................................................

Income & Poverty..................................................................................

Education & Workforce Development....................................................

Health & Well-Being.............................................................................

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7

10

12

15

MONTGOMERYLOUDOUN

PRINCEGEORGE’SFAIRFAX

PRINCEWILLIAM

D.C.

ARLINGTON

FAIRFAX CITY

FALLS CHURCH

ALEXANDRIA

MANASSASPARK

MANASSAS

KEY FINDINGS

• Population & Demographics. Over 4.8 million people live in the

Washington, DC region served by United Way of the National Capital Area.

As the region has grown over the last decade, it has attracted people from

all over the U.S. and around the world, becoming more racially and culturally

diverse than ever before. Racial and ethnic integration has improved in some

suburban and city neighborhoods, but many people around the region still

live in very segregated communities. Net migration to the region has slowed

since 2011 as other places around the country have become more attractive

magnets for migrants. The region’s population is aging as the leading edge

of the Baby Boom generation reaches retirement age.

• Economy & Employment. The Washington, DC region is home to nearly 3.0 million workers, and is the nation’s fourth largest metro-politan area economy. The region lost more than 50,000 jobs during the Great Recession, but recovered more quickly than the rest of the country. Employment rates are generally high across the region, but some groups—particularly young men in the District—are increasingly dropping out of the labor force. A few years out from the downturn, the region faces a period of slower growth and economic transition as a result of decreasing Federal spending. The fastest growing sectors over the next five years will be Construction, Health and Professional and Business Services.

• Income & Poverty. By many measures, the Washington, DC region is an affluent area. However, averages obscure income distributions, and income disparity across the region is increasing. Minority neigh-borhoods tend to also be the region’s lowest income neighborhoods. Poverty remains a persistent problem in the District of Columbia. Rising housing costs have made it increasingly hard for families across the region to find affordable housing.

• Education & Workforce Development. Currently, there are approxi-mately 1.2 million people enrolled in public and private elementary, secondary and postsecondary schools in the region. The region’s 800,000 public school students face different situations from district to district and even from school to school in terms of school perfor-mance, graduation rates and racial segregation. The current types of high school and post-secondary education and training may not be sufficient to prepare students for the workforce.

• Health & Well-Being. Deep divides exist among the region’s resi-dents in terms of health outcomes, including health insurance cov-erage, teen pregnancy, infant mortality, HIV infection, drug use and obesity. Violent and property crime rates around the region have fall-en, but crime levels remain elevated in the District of Columbia and in Prince George’s County.


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n KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

•For the first time in half a century, the District of Columbia’s population is increasing.

•The 55-and-older population has been growing twice as fast as the overall population.

•The Washington, DC metro area became a “majority minority” in 2010, but racial and ethnic segregation persists in many parts of the region.

The Washington, DC region added more than 800,000 people between 2000 and 2012, a growth rate of 19.7 percent. For the first time in half a century, the District of Columbia’s population increased, adding a total of more than 60,000 residents between 2000 and 2012. The city’s population growth ac-celerated between 2008 and 2012, and was fueled by the migration of a large White, young population that moved from other parts of the U.S. during the early part of the economic recovery.

Even as an urban renaissance occurred in the District of Columbia the re-gion’s fastest population growth was in the suburbs, particularly in Northern Virginia. The population of Loudoun County nearly doubled between 2000 and 2012 and the county’s population growth rate was more than eight per-cent annually during the 12-year period. The population of Prince William County increased by 50 percent over the same period.

The population growth in the region’s urban core in the second half of the last decade was largely a result of domestic migration of young workers. During the recession, the Washington, DC region was an attractive destination for migrants from other parts of the U.S. The region recovered more quickly from the recession, and was adding jobs in the early part of the recovery when

many places were not. As the national economy has improved and work-ers have more employment options, the flow of domestic migrants to the Washington, DC area is slowing. The most recent population estimates for the District of Columbia suggest that domestic migration to the city increased between 2010 and 2011 but declined in 2012.

n POPULATION BY RACEPopulation growth in the suburbs has been largely driven by growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations through both immigration and births to first and second generation immigrants. Between 2000 and 2011, the Hispanic population in the Washington, DC region increased by more than 330,000 (or 81 percent) and the Asian population grew by 197,000 (or 62 percent.) By contrast, the non-Hispanic White population in the region grew by just two percent between 2000 and 2011, and the African-American population grew by 11 percent.

While the Hispanic population grew substantially in most jurisdictions in the region, it grew fastest in Loudoun and Prince William counties and in the City of Manassas Park in Virginia. Arlington County is the only jurisdiction in which the number of Hispanics declined between 2000 and 2011. Relative to overall population growth rates, the growth rates of the Asian population were greatest in Montgomery, Fairfax and Loudoun counties.

The White, non-Hispanic population declined in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties in suburban Maryland and in Fairfax County and the cities of Fairfax and Manassas in Northern Virginia. During the 2000-2011 period, the District of Columbia added more than 59,000 White residents, while los-ing nearly 36,000 African-American residents. As a result, African Americans now account for less than 50 percent of the District’s population for the first time since 1960.

n ETHNIC DIVERSITYThe Washington, DC region has become a “majority minority,” with racial and ethnic diversity increasing throughout most of the region. The District of Columbia, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties in Maryland, and Prince William County and the independent cities of Manassas and Manassas Park in Virginia all have non-White majority populations. In the region’s largest

POPULATION, 2000 AND 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census and 2012 Population Estimates

2000

2012

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,0000

District of Columbia

Montgomery

Prince George’s

Arlington

Alexandria

Fairfax

Loudoun

Prince William

l Areas Explored: Population change / Working age population / Foreign born population / Population by race / Domestic migration / Age profile

POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS

African Americans now account for less than 50 percent of the District’s population for the first time since 1960.


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jurisdiction—Fairfax County—the population is 46.1 percent minority. The Loudoun County population was 38.5 percent minority in 2011, up from 20.4 percent in 2000.

The growing ethnic diversity in the region is partially attributable to the growth of the foreign-born population. The number of residents in the Washington, DC region who were born in other countries increased from 805,000 to nearly 1.2 million between 2000 and 2011, a 45 percent increase2. Currently, nearly one out of four residents of the Washington, DC region was born in another

country. The share of foreign-born residents is highest in Montgomery County where 32 percent of residents were born outside the U.S. About 29 percent of Fairfax County residents are foreign born. The District of Columbia has the smallest share of foreign-born residents (14 percent.)

In addition to population growth among foreign-born residents, the region has become more ra-cially and ethnically diverse through the growing populations of second and third generation im-migrants. In every jurisdiction in the region, the child population is more racially and ethnically diverse than the adult population. According to data from individual school districts, the region’s public school student body is 31 percent non-Hispanic White and 69 percent racial or ethnic minority.

n NEIGHBORHOOD DIVERSITYIn spite of growing diversity at a regional level the geographic separation of racial and ethnic groups from one another remains evident in many parts of the region. About 71 percent of the region’s residents live in a neighborhood3 in which a sin-

gle racial/ethnic group accounts for more than 50 percent of its population, and 21 percent of residents live in a neighborhood in which a single racial or ethnic group represents at least 80 percent of the population.

There are more than 100 neighborhoods in the region that are majority Hispanic, with a total of 184,000 residents. There are also 16 neighborhoods that are majority Asian, with a total population of 27,000. The region’s African American residents are the most likely to live in an area with very few residents of other racial or ethnic groups. Among the region’s 241 neighborhoods in

2 The number of foreign-born individuals includes all persons born outside the United States, regardless of citizenship status or legal status.

3 Neighborhoods are defined as block groups from the 2010 Decennial Census, which typically include about 1,000-2,000 residents.

RACE AND ETHNICITY, 2000 AND 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 CensusWhite African American Hispanic Asian Other

2000

2000

2000

2000

2010

2010

2010

2010

REGI

ONDC

MD

SUBU

RBS

VA S

UBUR

BS

50%

50%

44%

28%

35%

43%

33%

65%

55%

29%

27%

59%

37%

39%

11%

11%

10%

15%

3%

16%

16%

12%

13%

8%

11%

3%

3%

2%

3%3%

3%

3%

4%

8%

8%

9%

9%

9%

10% 3%

Currently, nearly one out of four residents of the Washington, DC region was born in another country.


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which one racial/ethnic group accounted for at least 90 percent of the popu-lation, the dominant group was African American in 198 of them.

In spite of the presence of concentrations of single racial/ethnic groups in much of the region, there are a number of suburban areas in which there is not a single dominant group. These include: Germantown, Colesville and the Veirs Mill Road corridor in Montgomery County; Beltsville and Hyattsville in Prince George’s County; Annandale and the I-395/I-95 corridor in Fairfax County; Dale City and Bull Run in Prince William County and Sterling in Loudoun County.

n AGING POPULATIONAs the region has become more racially and ethnically diverse, it has also be-come older. Compared to the nation as a whole, the Washington, DC region’s population has a somewhat greater share of people in their prime working ages (i.e. 30-54 years old) and a somewhat lower share of people in retire-ment or near-retirement years (i.e. age 55 years and older). However, in the Washington, DC area, like in much of the rest of the country, the older popu-lation is growing much faster as the Baby Boom generation ages. Between 2000 and 2011, the number of people in the region 55-64 years old increased by 203,000, reflecting an increase of 58.9 percent. The 65+ year old popula-tion increased by 32.6 percent between 2000 and 2011.

At the same time, the working age population grew much more slowly, with the population of 30-54 year olds in the Washington, DC region growing by just 8.2 percent between 2000 and 2011. In 2000, 30-54 year olds comprised 40.9 percent of the region’s population but by 2011, this group’s share had fallen to 37.6 percent. The share of 55-64 year olds in the population in-creased from 8.5 percent in 2000 to 11.4 percent in 2011, and the 65+ share rose from 9.0 percent to 10.1 percent over that same period. Increasingly, the

population of retirees and seniors in the region is expanding, while the work-ing age population is getting relatively smaller.

The population age 16-29 years old grew at about the same rate as the overall population between 2000 and 2011, adding 166,000 people. The youth and young adult population grew relatively faster in the District of Columbia and in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties. In much of Northern Virginia, the growth rates of the 55+ year old population far outpaced the growth of the 16-29 year old population.

The recent population and demographic change in the Washington, DC re-gion indicates a growing and strengthening urban core, but with continued robust population growth in the outer suburbs. The population rebound in the District of Columbia has been accompanied by a dramatic shift in the ra-cial composition of the city, which brings social, cultural and economic chal-lenges. The region’s suburbs will become increasingly more racially and ethnically diverse which suggests there will be changing needs among sub-urban residents and communities. While some neighborhoods have become more racially integrated, residential segregation remains evident throughout the region. The region as a whole is becoming older, with a slower growing workforce-age population and a youth population that is significantly more diverse than the adult and senior populations.

PERCENT CHANGE IN POPULATION BY AGE, 2000-2011

16-29 30-54 55+

150%

140%

130%

120%

110%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

Dist of Columbia Montgomery Prince George’s Arlington Alexandria Fairfax County Loudoun Prince William Region

23%

3%14

% 20%

2%41

%

15%

0%

45%

18%

8%25

%

-2%

9%37

%

14%

1%

51%

84%

81%

143%

44%

39%

113%

21%

8%

45%

POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS

The region’s suburbs will become increasingly more racially and ethnically diverse

which suggests there will be changing needs among suburban residents and communities.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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n KEY ECONOMIC TRENDS:

•The Washington, DC area economy is in a period of transition as a result of declining Federal spending in the region.

•The region generally has low unemployment and high wages although in D.C. unemployment rates remain stubbornly high.

•Young males in the region are dropping out of the labor force in relatively large numbers.

•Over the next five years, demand for workers will be strongest in the Construction, Health and Education and Professional and Business Services sectors.

There are 3.0 million jobs in the greater Washington, DC metropolitan area. During the Great Recession, the Washington, DC metropolitan area lost 57,000 jobs, but the region began to recover much more quickly than other regions, primarily as a result of the presence of the Federal Government. The region has posted year-over-year job gains every month since early 2010. Between 2009 and 2012, the Washington, DC metropolitan area has added more than 86,000 jobs concentrated in four private sectors—Professional and Business Services, Education and Health Services, Leisure and Hospitality and Retail Trade. While the Government sector added jobs between 2009 and 2012, there have been consistent monthly job losses in the Federal Government sector for most of the last year.

The Washington, DC metropolitan area has one of the highest labor force par-ticipation rates in the country. In 2011, 72.4 percent of the population age 16+ was in the labor force compared to a national labor force participation rate of 64.0 percent. The overall regional labor force participation rate has not changed much since before the recession; however, one segment of the

population—16-19 year old males—appears to have dropped out of the labor force in relatively large numbers with their labor force participation rates de-clining from 39.2 percent in 2007 to 30.6 percent in 2011. (There is a similar, though not as dramatic, decline among 16-19 year old females.) The drop in labor force participation rates could be attributed to a greater likelihood of being in school (either high school or post-secondary school.) More likely, however, is that the trend indicates that this segment of the population is becoming less attached to either work or school in the period following the recession.

l Areas Explored: Regional employment change & forecast / Employment by sector / Workforce demand / Unemployment rate / Income distribution / Projected education needs

ECONOMY & EMPLOYMENT

Washington, DC is the fourth largest metropolitan economy in

the United States, behind New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, 2009 - 2013

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsDistrict of Columbia U.S. Washington Metro Area Maryland Suburbs Virginia Suburbs

12

4

3

2

1

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

PERC

ENT

OF L

ABOR

FOR

CE U

NEM

PLOY

ED

1/09

3/09

5/09

7/09

9/09

11/0

9

1/10

3/10

5/10

7/10

9/10

11/1

0

1/11

3/11

5/11

7/11

9/11

11/1

1

1/12

3/12

5/12

7/12

9/12

11/1

2

1/13


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n UNEMPLOYMENTThe region’s unemployment rate is consistently lower than the national unem-ployment rate. In February 2013, the unemployment rate in the Washington, DC metropolitan area was 5.5 percent, compared with 7.7 percent nationally.

The unemployment rate remains persistently higher in the District of Columbia—approximately two percentage points higher than the rate in the Maryland suburbs and four percentage points higher than in Northern Virginia as of February 2013. In a region with strong job growth, the enduring high unemployment in the District suggests that many residents of the city lack the skills that are needed by the region’s growing sectors.

Across the region, unemployment rates for non-Hispanic Whites are lower than the rates for African Americans and Hispanics. The difference is particu-larly stark in the District of Columbia where the unemployment rate among African Americans is 20 percent, compared to just three percent for non-His-panic whites.

n WAGESThe Washington, DC metropolitan area ranks second (behind the San Francisco area) in both average wages and median household income. But like job growth and unemployment, wages vary significantly across the region.

In the third quarter of 2012, av-erage wages were highest for jobs located in the District of Columbia ($79,000) and Fairfax County ($73,000) and lowest in Prince William County ($43,000). The District and Fairfax County have large employment centers with high concentrations of jobs in the Federal Government and in the Professional and Business Services sectors, which are the two highest wage sectors in the region. Prince William County, along with many of the other suburban jurisdictions, has an economy that is more locally-serving and therefore has more jobs in personal services and retail trade, which tend to be lower-paying sectors.

The high average wage in the Washington, DC region obscures the hollowing out of middle-income households throughout the area. In 1990, about the same share of individuals in the Washington, DC metropolitan area earned below $40,000 per year as earned above $80,000 per year (roughly 20 per-cent of the workforce fell in each category.) Thus, in 1990, 59 percent of work-ers in the region earned wages in the middle, between $40,000 and $80,000 per year. By 2010, in inflation adjusted dollars, 23 percent of workers earned below $40,000 and 39 percent earned $80,000 or more leaving just 39 per-cent earning wages in the middle. Over the past 20 years, the richest house-holds have gotten richer, the number of the poor households has grown, and the share of middle-class households shrank substantially.

In addition to a hollowing out of middle-income earners, for the first time in a non-recession year, average wages (in inflation-adjusted dollars) declined in 2011 (compared to 2010.) The unprecedented (though modest) decline in wages in the region is partially a result of a shift in the types of jobs the re-gion has been adding in the years following the recession.

n ECONOMIC RECOVERYIn the wake of the Great Recession, the Washington, DC area economy is in a period of transition resulting from declining Federal spending in the region. In 2010, nearly 40 percent of the region’s economy was tied to the Federal Government, through Federal payroll, procurement spending and transfer payments. By 2018, it is projected that the Federal Government will account for only 29 percent of the region’s economy. The private sector is expected to step in to fill this gap, primarily in the Construction, Education and Health Services and Professional and Business Services sectors.

The region’s job recovery between 2009 and 2011 was led by two sectors—Federal Government and Education and Health Services. At the end of 2011

WAGE AND SALARY INCOME LEVELS (2011 DOLLARS), 1990 AND 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau1999 2010

25%20%15%10%5%0%

$10 - 20K

$20 - 30K

$30 - 40K

$40 - 50K

$50 - 60K

$60 - 70K

$70 - 80K

$80 - 90K

$90 - 100K

Over $100K

ECONOMY & EMPLOYMENTEDUCATION NEEDED FOR NEW JOBS, 2013 - 2018

4%Associate’s

Source: EMSI; GMU Center for Regional Analysis

34%Bachelor’s or More

62%High School

/Voc. Ed./OJT

Over the past 20 years, the richest households have gotten richer, the

number of poor households has grown, and the share of middle-income earners

shrank substantially.

The high average wage in the Washington, DC region obscures the hollowing out of middle-

income households throughout the area.


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and into 2012, private sector economic growth had become more widespread, with job growth in the Professional and Business Services, Financial Services, Retail Trade, Leisure and Hospitality and Construction sectors. In 2011 and 2012, the Federal Government began shedding jobs in the region. Between February 2011 and February 2013, the Washington, DC metropolitan area lost 8,900 Federal Government jobs. Over 2012, the pace of growth of the Professional and Business Services sector, which includes large numbers of Federal contractors, had slowed, as well.

Federal procurement spending in the Washington, DC metropolitan area has been a primary driver of the region’s economy over the past three decades. Between 1980 and 2010, the Washington, DC region received over a billion dollars of Federal procurement spending which fueled the growth of private sector businesses, particularly in the Professional and Business Services sec-tor. Federal procurement spending in the region declined in 2011 for the first time in three decades, and this decline continued in 2012. Though spend-ing cuts associated with sequestration will have an immediate effect on the Washington, DC region’s economy, declining Federal spending was already af-fecting the region and its influence on the regional economy will continue to diminish regardless of how sequestration is ultimately managed through the Federal budget process.

n LOOKING AHEADLooking ahead, Federal employment is expected to continue to decline in the region over the next five years. The composition of the regional economy is changing, with less reliance on the Federal Government and increased growth in sectors fueled by population growth. In the near-term, between 2013 and 2018, there will be nearly 700,000 job openings in the region. This total in-cludes about 300,000 net new jobs and 400,000 replacement jobs—that is, jobs that need to be filled due to turnover and retirement. Over the next five years, the major sources of job growth in the Washington, DC metropolitan area are forecasted to be the Professional and Business Services, Construction and Education and Health Services sectors, while the number of Federal Government jobs in the region is expected to decline between 2013 and 2018.

Within these broad economic sectors, there will be a number of relatively fast-growing occupations. Over the next five years, the largest number of job openings in the region will be in Sales occupations, followed by Business and Financial occupations and Office Administrative support. Other in-demand occupations include Food Preparation and Service (primarily due to turn-over); Management occupations; Computer, Math and Scientific occupations; Health Care (all types with particular demand for home health care workers); Education and Training occupations and Personal Care occupations.

There is a strong need for increased vocational education and on-the-job training for the region’s future workforce. More than 60 percent of the jobs that will be in demand in the next five years will be occupations that require a high school degree, GED, vocational education training or on-the-job-train-ing. About 34 percent will require a college degree, while just four percent are occupations that require an associate’s degree. Some individuals end up working in jobs for which they have more education than is required; howev-er, these forecasts suggest that increased post-secondary school education should include more skills-based, job-focused training in order to meet the growing needs.

160

FORECASTS OF REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTOR (000S), 2013 - 2018

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

OTHER SECTORS 18

STATE & LOCAL GOVT 12

LEISURE & HOSPITALITY 8

ED & HEALTH SVC 39

PROF. & BUS. SVCS 144

FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 5

INFORMATION 7

RETAIL TRADE 13

CONSTRUCTION 55

FEDERAL GOVT -22

Source: EMSI; GMU Center for Regional Analysis

There is a strong need for increased vocational education and on-the-job

training for the region’s future workforce.

PROJECTED WORKFORCE DEMAND, WASHINGTON, DC METRO AREA 2013 - 2018

REPLACEMENT JOBS

NET NEW OPENINGSDistrict of Columbia

Maryland Suburbs

Virginia Suburbs

60,675 net / 94,650 repl.

56,516 net / 128,271 repl.

178,305 net / 176,903 repl.

Source: EMSI


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n KEY INCOME TRENDS:

•The metropolitan area is home to 6 of the 10 U.S. counties with the highest median incomes.

•The share of middle-income households is shrinking across the region, despite relative high average incomes.

•Child poverty rates are higher than overall poverty rates in most suburban jurisdictions.

•The District of Columbia continues to have a poverty rate more than double that of any subur-ban jurisdiction.

•Housing affordability is a regional problem; as it is becoming increasingly difficult for working families to find housing that is affordable.

By many measures, the Washington, DC region is an affluent area. The me-dian household income in 2011 in the Washington, DC metropolitan area was $86,680. Among the nation’s ten highest income counties as measured by median household income, six are located in the Washington, DC metropoli-tan area—Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William and Fauquier counties in Virginia and Montgomery County in Maryland.6 In Loudoun, Fairfax and Arlington counties, the median household income is about $100,000.

Nearly 28 percent of households across the region have total household in-comes of less than $50,000,7 and 12 percent of the region’s households live on less than $25,000 per year. At the other end of the income distribution, nearly one out of four households in the Washington, DC region has a house-hold income of $150,000 or more.

n INCOME BY RACEThe concentration of the population by race and ethnicity is closely related to the concentration of income across the region. Most of the neighborhoods that lack a dominant racial/ethnic group have median household incomes in the range of $50,000 to $100,000. However, most of the neighborhoods with populations that are at least 90 percent African American have median

household incomes below $50,000. Most of the region’s highest income neighborhoods, with median household incomes in excess of $150,000, are majority White areas in suburban counties located north or west of the District of Columbia. One notable exception is the Woodmore neighborhood, in Prince George’s County, which is more than 80 percent African American and has a median household income of about $160,000.

n POVERTYIn 2001 a total of $2.7 billion was paid in income maintenance benefits to res-idents of the Washington, DC region, or $567 per capita. This was up 49 per-cent from 2007. Income maintenance benefits8 paid to District of Columbia residents in 2011 was $1,459 per capita, more than twice as much as any oth-er jurisdiction. The amount of per capita income maintenance benefits paid increased fastest from 2007 to 2011 in Prince William (61 percent increase), Loudoun (56 percent), and Fairfax (54 percent).

The ongoing transformation of the District of Columbia, highlighted by its recent influx of affluent young professionals, has been well documented. In spite of this positive change, poverty remains a particular concern in the District, where 19 percent of the population lived below the poverty line in 2011. The poverty rate in the city is at least double the rate of all of the region’s suburban jurisdictions. However, poverty rates in the District of Columbia (and the City of Alexandria) have declined slightly over the last decade, while in many suburban jurisdictions, poverty rates have been on the increase. For example, in Fairfax County, the poverty rate in 2000 was less than five per-cent. In 2011, the poverty rate had increased to nearly seven percent.

l Areas Explored: Household income / Children poverty rate / Housing / Average wages / Poverty rate / Transportation & Commuting

INCOME & POVERTY

6 Fauquier County is outside United Way of the National Capital Area’s service area but is within the Washington, DC metropolitan statistical area boundary. Howard County, Md, is also among the 10 high-est income counties nationwide but it is officially part of the Baltimore metropolitan statistical area.

7 Household income includes all income from wages, as well as non-wage income such as interest and rental income and public assistance.

8 Defined by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to include SSI, TANF, AFDC, SNAP, WIC, and other Federal, state, and local tax credits and direct assistance programs

HOUSEHOLD INCOME, 2011

Source: US Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey

24.8%$150,000 or more

19.6%$100,000 - $149,000

13.2%$75,000 - $99,999

15.7%$50,000 - $74,999

14.7%$25,000 - $49,999

12.0%Less than$25,000

In the past 5 years, income maintenance benefits increased

49 percent across the region.


11

Region-wide, poverty rates are higher for African Americans and Hispanics than for Whites and Asians. In the District of Columbia, nearly 30 percent of African Americans live in poverty, compared to seven percent of Whites. Poverty rates among Hispanics are highest in the City of Manassas, where

about 28 percent of Hispanics live in poverty.

Across the region, the child poverty rate tends to be slightly higher than the overall poverty rate. While the poverty rate for children under 18 in DC is slightly lower than the overall rate (16 percent), it is still the highest in the re-gion. The child poverty rate is higher than the overall rate in every suburban jurisdiction aside from Loudoun County, with the largest gap in Alexandria, where 11 percent of children live in poverty compared with 6.8 percent of all residents.

n HOUSINGWhile average wages are high in the region, so, too, are housing costs. By one measure9, when wages are adjusted for the cost of living, the Washington, DC metropolitan area ranks 16th out of 51 large metropolitan areas in terms of affordability.

Housing values in the Washington, DC region have increased during the eco-nomic recovery. The Case-Shiller Housing Index is one measure of regional home prices. Between 2009 and 2012 the Case-Shiller index was up by 6.5 percent for the Washington, DC metropolitan area. On average, regional home prices are still below the peak of 2006 and 2007, but there is wide variation from one jurisdiction to another. The median home sale price in 2012 in Arlington County was $509,125, which is three times greater than the median sale price of $170,000 in Prince George’s County. Median prices also exceeded $400,000 in the City of Alexandria, the District of Columbia and Fairfax County. Other than Prince George’s the only jurisdiction in the region

with a median sale price below $350,000 is Prince William County, which had a median price of $274,990.

In the period following the economic downturn (2009-2011), nearly half of renters and 1/3 of homeowners in the Washington, DC metropolitan area spent 30 percent or more of their income on housing costs. A household is generally considered “housing cost burdened” if it spends 30 percent or more of its gross income on housing costs. This represents a substantial in-crease over 2000, when 35 percent of renters and 22 percent of homeowners were cost burdened.

Interestingly, housing affordability is a growing problem for the region’s moderate- and higher-income households.

n COMMUTINGHigh housing costs in the region affect where working families are able to live. As of 2010, nearly half of all commuters in the Washington, DC met-ropolitan area traveled outside of their city or county of residence to go to work each day. District of Columbia residents are the most likely to work in the same jurisdiction; 74 percent of District commuters also work in the city. Residents of Arlington County and the City of Alexandria are the most likely to commute outside of their home jurisdictions—74 percent of Alexandria resi-dents work elsewhere, as do 68 percent of Arlington residents.

The mean travel time to work of all workers in the Washington MSA was 34.5 minutes in 2011, and 17.5 percent of commuters travel 60 or more minutes each way to work each day. Arlington County residents have the shortest average commutes in the region, at 27 minutes, and only five percent of Arlington residents travel 60 minutes or more to and from work each day. Prince William County residents face the longest commute times, with an av-erage commute time of 41 minutes, and 20 percent travel live at least 60 min-utes from their workplaces.

9 http://www.newgeography.com/content/002950-the-cities-where-a-paycheck-stretches-the-furthest

POVERTY RATE AND CHILD POVERTY RATE, 2011

Source: US Census, American Community SurveyOVERALL UNDER 18

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%


Montgomery

Prince George’s

Arlington

Alexandria

Fairfax

Loudoun

Prince William

7%

9%

8%

7%

7%

4%

7%

19%

8%

11%

9%

11%

10%

4%

10%

16%

HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING 30% OR MORE OF INCOME ON HOUSING, 2009 - 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

10%

0%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

OWNERSRENTERS

Dist of

Columbia

Montgo

mery

Princ

e Geor

ge’s

Arling

ton

Alexan

dria

Fairfa

x

Loudo

un

Princ

e Willi

am

Nearly half of renters and 1/3 of homeowners in the Washington, DC metropolitan area spent 30

percent or more of their income on housing costs.


12

n KEY EDUCATION & WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS:

•The region’s public schools are more racially segregated than the overall population.

•Across the region, student performance on math standardized tests declines dramatically be-tween 4th and 8th grade.

•African American and Hispanic students are significantly less likely than White or Asian stu-dents to pass assessment tests or to graduate high school on time.

•There is a sizeable group of 16-24 year olds who are not in school and not in the labor force.

•Our region’s high schools and post-secondary education and training institutions may not be providing appropriate preparation to meet future labor force needs.

The workforce in the Washington, DC region is among the best educated in the nation. More than half of the population age 25+ has a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 29 percent nationally. The region also has a high concentration of people age 25+ with graduate or professional degrees (25 percent) relative to the national average of 11 percent.

In Arlington County, 70 percent of the population age 25+ has at least a bach-elor’s degree, and 37 percent has a graduate or professional degree. In Prince George’s County, which has the lowest educational attainment levels in the region, the share of residents age 25+ with a bachelor’s degree (30 percent) still exceeds the national average.

Within our highly educated region, there are disparities in educational at-tainment levels. Ten percent of the region’s residents age 25+ do not have a high school degree or equivalent. Nearly 20 percent of adults in the cities of Manassas and Manassas Park have not graduated from high school. Fifteen percent of Prince George’s County adults and 13 percent of District adults have not completed high school. In our very highly educated region, there are places where levels of educational attainment lag far behind average.

Regional workforce development begins with the local public schools. In the Washington, DC region, approximately 55 percent of three- and four-year olds are enrolled in pre-kindergarten programs. Enrollment ranges from a low of 32.1 percent in the City of Manassas Park to a high of 74.6 percent in the District of Columbia. The District of Columbia, in particular, has taken strides to make early childhood programs universally available.

n SCHOOL ASSESSMENTSThe Washington, DC region has some of the best performing schools in the country; it also has many struggling schools. Students across the region gen-erally perform well on standardized assessments, with cumulative passing

l Areas Explored: Graduation rates / Grade level assessments / STEM degrees / Educational attainment / % of youth not in school/not in labor force / School segregation/diversity

EDUCATION & WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT

PERCENT OF POPULATION 25+ WITH A BACHELOR’S DEGREE, 2011


10%

0%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

National

29%

Region

51%

Districtof Columbia

52%

Montgomery

57%

Arlington

70%

Alexandria

60%

Fairfax

59%

Loudoun

56%

PrinceWilliam

37%

Prince George’s

30%

% OF STUDENTS WITH PASSING SCORES ON MATHEMATICS ASSESSMENTS, 2011

60%

90%

48%

77%

Sources: DC Office of the State Superintendent of Education, Maryland Department of Education, Virginia Department of Education

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

SUBURBS

4th Grade 8th Grade

% OF STUDENTS WITH PASSING SCORES ON READING ASSESSMENTS, 2011

44%

89%

51%

89%

Sources: DC Office of the State Superintendent of Education, Maryland Department of Education, Virginia Department of Education

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

SUBURBS

4th Grade 8th Grade

Performance on math assessments declined across the region from Grade 4 to Grade 8.


13

rates of 84 percent on Grade 4 and Grade 8 reading assessments and 79 per-cent on math assessments region-wide.

However, there are two key areas of concern regarding academic performance of the region’s public school students. First, performance on math assess-ments declined across the region from Grade 4 to Grade 8. The region’s av-erage passing rates on math assessment tests in 2011 were 85 percent for Grade 4, but just 73 percent for Grade 8. This pattern was observed in all of the region’s public school districts, with the largest declines occurring in Prince George’s County, the City of Alexandria and Montgomery County.

Second, students in the District of Columbia Public Schools (DCPS) have sig-nificantly lower pass rates on Grade 4 and Grade 8 assessment tests com-pared to students in suburban jurisdictions. For both math and reading as-sessments DCPS students’ scores were 30-50 points below those of students in suburban school districts. The largest gap between DCPS and the region was for Grade 4 reading; on these test the passing rate in suburban districts was 89 percent, more than twice as high as DCPS’ 44 percent passing rate.

n EDUCATIONAL SEGREGATIONMany of our region’s students attend public schools that are even more ra-cially segregated than their neighborhoods. Many parts of the region have

very high concentrations of individual racial and ethnic groups, most notably African Americans in the eastern half of the District of Columbia and the southern part of Prince George’s County. In many public schools in these areas more than 90 percent of students are African American. Even in jurisdictions like Montgomery and Prince William counties where the overall population is more integrated, many schools are segregated by race and ethnicity.

A contributor to the racial and ethnic segregation of the region’s public schools is the relatively low share of White children of school age who are en-rolled in public schools. Regionwide, 45 percent of all children age 5-17 years old are non-Hispanic White, compared with just 32 percent of students

in the region’s public schools. This disparity exists in all jurisdictions, with the largest gaps in the City of Alexandria, Montgomery County and Prince William County. An estimated 13 percent of the region’s elementary and secondary students attend private schools, with a disproportionate share of White students attending private schools.

While 86 percent of the region’s public high school students graduated on time in 2012, District of Columbia students and African American and Hispanic students were significantly less likely to finish high school on time.4 Only 61 percent of DCPS students graduated on time, compared with 88 percent of students in suburban areas. Other than Prince George’s County (76 percent) and the City of Alexandria (82 percent), all suburban districts had on-time graduation rates of at least 87 percent. On-time graduation rates also vary by race and ethnicity. In all jurisdictions across the region, only 78 percent of African American and Hispanic students graduated on-time.

n DISCONNECTED YOUTHEven in jurisdictions with high on-time graduation rates there are substantial numbers of young people who are neither in school nor in the labor force. This group, identified as disconnected youth, presents a challenge to the region.

As of 2010 there were an estimated 28,000 16-24 year olds in the region who were neither in school nor in the labor force. The District of Columbia and Alexandria had the highest shares of disconnected youth. In both cities, about 11 percent of 16-19 year olds were not in school and not in the labor

4 Defined by the U.S. Department of Education (ED) as the share of students who graduate with the cohort with which they enter 9th grade. DC and Maryland use ED’s Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate, which only includes traditional graduates; Virginia uses the Virginia On-Time Graduation Rate, which includes GEDs.

Even in jurisdictions with high on-time graduation rates there

are substantial numbers of young people who are neither in

school nor in the labor force.

In all jurisdictions across the region, only 78 percent of African American and Hispanic students graduated on-time.


14

force. Eleven percent of 20-24 year olds in the District and 8.4 percent of 20-24 year olds in the City of Alexandria were disconnected from school and work.

In the region’s suburbs, the rates of disconnected youth generally were low-er. However, the shares of 20-24 year olds who were not in school or the labor force were higher in the suburbs than the shares of 16-19 year olds. This pat-tern could reflect the difficulty recent college graduates have had in finding a job and the trend of more twentysomethings moving back home. The fact

that 28,000 16-24 year olds in the Washington, DC region have no connection to work or school poses significant challenges for not only those individuals, but also for the ability of the region to grow to its capacity.

n CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION Among the region’s high school graduates, a significant share continues on to one of the area’s four community college systems: Northern Virginia Community College (NVCC), Montgomery College, Prince George’s Community College and the UDC Community College. These systems enrolled a total of 120,968 students during the 2011-12 academic year.

NVCC alone accounted for 63 percent of community college enrollment in the region, with about 77,000 students. These institutions granted a total of 12,524 associate’s degrees in 2012. Some students drop out of commu-nity college programs, but others move on to finish degrees at four-year institutions.

Some high schools across the region offer Career and Technical Education (CTE) programs, which provide vocational and career preparation training and are often attended by students who do not intend to pursue post-secondary school. During the 2011-12 academic year there were 20,224 students en-rolled in these programs across the region. More than half of the region’s en-rollment in CTE programs is in Montgomery and Fairfax counties. Placement5 of CTE graduates between 2009 and 2011 exceeded 95 percent in all Virginia school districts, and was 88 percent for DCPS, but both Montgomery (72 per-cent) and Prince George’s (51 percent) counties reported lower placement rates.

n HIGHER EDUCATIONThe region is home to more than 20 colleges and universities that grant at least bachelor’s degrees, with a total enrollment of about 213,000 students. The area’s public universities are anchored by the University of Maryland College Park and George Mason University, which together have 70,000 stu-dents, but also include the University of the District of Columbia, Bowie State University and the University of Maryland University College.

There are several internationally prominent private institutions located in the District of Columbia, including The American University, Catholic University of America, Georgetown University, George Washington University, Howard University and Trinity Washington University, as well as several smaller pri-vate institutions both in the District and its suburbs. There are also a num-ber of institutions that are affiliated with the government or military (National Intelligence University, National War College, Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences) and one-of-a-kind institutions (Gallaudet University, National Labor College).

There were an estimated 66,364 degrees issued by the Washington, DC re-gion’s colleges and universities in 2012, including 12,500 associate’s de-grees, 26,600 bachelor’s degrees, and 27,200 post-graduate degrees. Of all of the degrees issued in the region, an estimated 8,861 were in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields, representing 13.4 percent of all degrees issued in the region. The region’s share of STEM de-grees as a percent of total degrees is comparable to the national average of 14.3 percent.

EDUCATION & WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT

5 Defined as placement in jobs, college or the military within two quarters of graduation

The fact that 28,000 16-24 year olds in the Washington DC region have no connection to work or school poses significant challenges for not only those individuals, but also for the

ability of the region to grow to its capacity.

PERCENT OF YOUTH NOT IN SCHOOL AND NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE, 2008 - 2010 AVERAGES


NOTE: Data were not reported for Loudoun County or the independent cities of Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas or Manassas Park

16 - 19 YEAR OLDS 20 - 24 YEAR OLDS

10% 12%8%6%4%2%0%


Montgomery

Prince George’s

Arlington

Alexandria

Fairfax

Prince William

11.3%

11.3%

2.4%

5.1%

5.0%

6.6%

0.7%

3.6%

10.6%

8.4%

2.1%

6.5%

4.1%

8.9%


15

n KEY HEALTH & WELL-BEING TRENDS:

•Rates of teen pregnancy and infant mortality are significantly higher for minorities in the region.

•Crime rates have declined overall except in Fairfax County.

Deep divides exist among the Washington, DC region’s racial and ethnic groups in regard to early childhood health. The infant mortality rate among African Americans is much higher than for all other races. The region’s infant mortality rate among this population from 1999 to 2008 was 13.5 per 1,000. By comparison, the average mortality rate for all babies born in the region was 7.4 per 1,000 and the national rate was 6.8. The mortality rate for babies born to Hispanic mothers in the region was just 6.0 per 1,000.

African American mothers in the region are also more likely to give birth to low birth weight babies than are other populations. An average of 12.1 percent of babies with African American mothers born in the region between 1999 and 2008 were low birth weight. This compares to 8.4 percent of all babies in the region and 6.7 percent of babies with Hispanic mothers. The national average in 2009 was 8.2 percent.

These disparate rates among racial and ethnic groups are consistent across all jurisdictions in the region, and contribute to the jurisdictional differences. The District of Columbia has both the highest infant mortality rate (12.4 per 1,000) and the highest share of low birth weight babies (10.9 percent) in the region. Arlington County has the lowest rates in both categories.

n TEEN PREGNANCYThe region’s birth rate among girls age 15-19 years old from 2003 to 2009 was 29.5 per 1,000, compared with the national average of 41.2. Hispanic girls age 15-19 years old had the highest birth rates, with 83.9 births per 1,000, which also exceeded the national average for Hispanics of 79.6. African American

girls age 15-19 had higher birth rates than the regional average, but lower than the national average for all African American girls. As with infant mor-tality and low birth weight, the trends among racial and ethnic groups were consistent in all of the region’s jurisdictions. Overall, the birth rate among all girls age 15-19 years old was highest in two urban jurisdictions with high concentrations of Hispanic and African American youth—Alexandria and the District of Columbia.

n FOOD DESERTS AND OBESITYAccording to the U.S. Department of Agriculture there are more than 231,000 residents of the Washington, DC region who live in “food deserts,”10 repre-senting about five percent of the total population. Areas of the region with concentrations of low-income African American populations are less likely to have healthy food options. Forty-three percent the region’s food desert resi-dents live in Prince George’s County, with most situated around the Beltway in areas like College Park, New Carrollton, Landover and Forestville. Prince George’s also has, by a wide margin, the highest obesity rate11 in the re-gion at 33 percent. The next highest rates are in the District of Columbia (20 percent) and Fairfax (19 percent). Conversely the three areas with no food deserts, Arlington, Alexandria and Loudoun, have the lowest obesity rates in the region.

l Areas Explored: Health status / Obesity rates / Youth arrest rates / HIV infection / Food deserts / Teen pregnancy / Crime rates / Infant mortality / Health insurance coverage

HEALTH & WELL-BEING

10 Defined by USDA as: “low-income areas where a significant number or share of residents is far from a su-permarket, where ‘far’ is more than 1 mile in urban areas and more than 10 miles in rural areas.” http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-access-research-atlas/about-the-atlas.aspx

11 Defined by the Centers for Disease Control as all adults with a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher

PERCENT OF ADULTS WITH A BODY MASS INDEX > 30 (OBESE), 2009*

* No data were reported for Alexandria or Loudoun in 2009; Alexandria figure is from 2007 & Loudoun is from 2008.Sources: Centers for Disease Control, National Center for Health Statistics

5%

0%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

20.1%17.5%

33.4%

11.2%

19.4%

13.8%

17.9%16.2%

Dist of

Columbia

Montgo

mery

Princ

e Geor

ge’s

Arling

ton

Alexan

dria

Fairfa

x

Loudo

un

Princ

e Willi

am

INFANT MORTALITY WITHIN FIRST YEAR* AND LOW BIRTH WEIGHT BABIES** BY RACE OF MOTHER IN WASHINGTON REGION, PER 1,000 BIRTHS

0 0%

3 3%

6 6%

9 9%

12 12%

15 15%

LOW BIRTH WEIGHT

INFANT MORTALITY

All Black/African American Hispanic

* Infant Mortality is average across 1999 - 2008 period; rates calcu-lated based on sum of data year populations.

** Low Birth Weight is average across 2003 - 2009 period; rates calcu-lated based on sum of data year populations.

Source: Centers for Disease Control, National Center for Health Statistics

7.48.4%

13.512.1%

6.0 6.7%


16

n HEALTHHealth insurance coverage varies across the region. More than 15 percent of persons under the age of 65 lack health insurance in Prince George’s County, Prince William County, and the cities of Alexandria, Manassas and Manassas Park. Health insurance coverage—which includes both private and public health insurance—is highest in Loudoun County and the District of Columbia. In both jurisdictions, about nine percent of the population under age 65 does not have health insurance coverage.

The rate of HIV infection is more than six times as high in District of Columbia (2,821 per 100,000 population) as the national average of 448 per 100,000 people. Other jurisdictions with HIV infection rates above the national aver-age are Alexandria (1,040), Prince George’s (778), and Arlington (746).

n CRIME AND SAFETYGood health is an important component of well-being. So, too, is safety. As the region has changed over the past decade, its crime patterns have also changed. The violent crime rate in the Washington, DC region largely mirrored national trends, declining in most areas between 2001 and 2010. Most jurisdictions in the region have consistently maintained violent crime rates well below the national average. The only exceptions are the District of Columbia and Prince George’s County, but both of these areas experienced significant declines in crime rates from 2001 to 2010—the District’s violent crime rate declined by 28 percent and Prince George’s County’s rate declined by 35 percent over the decade. Fairfax County’s violent crime rate increased by more than 250 percent during that period, but it still remains among the region’s lowest at 90 offenses per 100,000 people.

Property crime rates tracked with violent crime rates throughout the region from 2001 to 2010, again keeping in line with national trends. From 2001-2010 the national property crime rate declined by the same rate as violent crime (20 percent). As with violent crime both the District of Columbia and

Prince George’s County have rates above the national average, but both ex-perienced sharper declines than the national average, particularly in Prince George’s where there was a 37 percent decline in the property crime rate be-tween 2001 and 2010. The largest declines in property crime rates occurred in Alexandria (44 percent) and Loudoun (41 percent), and Prince George’s (37 percent). Fairfax was the only jurisdiction that had its property crime rate increase, but it was only by 10 percent, and it remains one of the lowest in the region, with 1,452 reported offenses per 100,000 people.

n YOUTH CRIMESWhile violent and property crime rates have decreased in the region drug abuse arrests12 have not. Among the region’s reporting jurisdictions only Arlington County and the City of Manassas experienced declines in their drug abuse arrest rates between 2002 and 2009. Fairfax County’s drug abuse ar-rest rate spiked from 35 per 100,000 population in 2002 to 197 by 2009, an increase of 462 percent in just seven years. In spite of this increase Fairfax actually maintains the lowest rate in the region, with Arlington (203) and Loudoun (238) being the next lowest. The highest drug abuse arrest rates are in Prince William County (534 per 100,000 population) and Prince George’s County (464).

Youth arrest rates in the Washington, DC region also present cause for con-cern. Rates of violent, property and drug abuse arrests13 among the region’s age 10-17 population increased dramatically in many jurisdictions between 2002 and 2009. Jumps in youth crime rates were exceptionally high in Fairfax County, which experienced substantial increases in youth arrest rates for property crime (984 percent), violent crime (750 percent) and drug abuse arrests (242 percent) from 2002 to 2009. In spite of these sharp increases, though, Fairfax County still maintains among the lowest youth arrest rates in the region in all of these categories. For all crime types the highest arrest rates were in Prince George’s County, Alexandria and Montgomery County. Prince William County had a high rate of property crime arrests, but more modest rates of violent and drug abuse arrests among its youth.

HEALTH & WELL-BEING

12 As reported for the year 2009 by the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP). Data were not reported for the District of Columbia.

13 Also reported by OJJDP; data were not reported for the District of Columbia.

DATA SOURCES

POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICSThe primary source of Population & Demographic data is the U.S. Census Bureau. The key demographic data—population, race/ethnicity, and age—were compiled from the decennial Census, American Community Survey, and Population Estimates. All data are publically-available from the Census Bureau’s website at www.census.gov.

ECONOMY & EMPLOYMENTEmployment, unemployment and wage data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and jurisdiction-level data can be accessed at www.bls.gov. Workforce demand forecasts were produced by the GMU Center for Regional Analysis using data from EMSI, a private company that pro-duces occupational forecasts by jurisdiction.

INCOME & POVERTY Income and poverty data, as well as housing cost bur-den data, are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Home price data are from MRIS, the re-gional multiple listing service.

EDUCATION & WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENTData on educational attainment is from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. School assessment data were compiled from the District of Columbia Office of the State Superintendent, the Maryland Department of Education, and the Virginia Department of Education. On-time graduation rates were compiled from the Executive Office of the Mayor (DC), Maryland Report Card, and Virginia Department of Education, Graduation Cohort Reports.

Data on Community and Technical Education (CTE) programs were compiled from the U.S. Department of Education Ed

Perkins Collaborative Resource Network (DC), the Maryland Department of Education CTE Report Card, and the Virginia Department of Education CTE Performance Reports. Post-secondary enrollment figures and numbers of STEM degrees were gather by reviewing institutions’ websites and through phone calls.

Data on disconnected youth were estimated using the 2008-2010 American Community Survey public microdata sample.

HEALTH & WELL-BEINGThe U.S. Centers for Disease Control and the National Center for Health Statistics were the sources of data for teen preg-nancy rates, infant mortality rates, low birth weight rates, obesity rates. Crime rates were gathered from the FBI’s uni-form crime reporting statistics program.

Four jurisdictions in the region have HIV infection rates above the national average.

Documents

COMMUNITY SNAPSHOT · KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS • For the first time in half a century, the District of Columbia’s population is increasing. • The 55-and-older population has been