Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population

Policy Responses

Ricardo Paes de Barros Diana Coutinho

Rosane Mendonça

Nelspruit, March 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

n)

Actual and Expected Evolution of the Brazilian Population from 1872 to 2060

17,3 million

173 million

228 million

100 years

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

2014

40 years

A. Demographic dynamics

A. Demographic dynamics

-10

-5

0

5

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25

30

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55

60

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

rate

s p

er

tho

usa

nd

pe

rso

ns

Brazilian Population Dynamics: 1880-2060

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

Crude birth rate

Crude death rate

Natural growth rate

Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V

2014

A. Demographic dynamics

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

rate

s p

er

tho

usa

nd

pe

rso

ns

Brazilian Population Dynamics: 1880-2060

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

Crude birth rate

Crude death rate

Net migration rate

Natural growth rate

Population growth rate

Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V

2014

B. Health transition

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

5

10

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30

35

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45

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55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Infa

nt

Mo

rtal

iy R

ate

(‰

)

Life

Exp

ect

ancy

at

Bir

th (

year

s)

Actual and Predicted Evolution of Life Expectancy at Birth and Infat Mortality Rate: Brazil, 1910-2060

Life Expectancy

1/3

22 years

2014

1/2 extra year of life per calendar year

Infant Mortality Rate

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

40

70

48

16

Life expectancy in Brazilian Municipalities: 1991

1/6/14 Impressão do Mapa | Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil 2013

atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/imprimir_mapa/ 1/1

Mapa

Realização:

1991 - Esperança de vida ao nascer 06/01/14

LEGENDA

Source: HDI-M Atlas

1/6/14 Impressão do Mapa | Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil 2013

atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/imprimir_mapa/ 1/1

Mapa

Realização:

2010 - Esperança de vida ao nascer 06/01/14

LEGENDA

B. Health transition

Life expectancy in Brazilian Municipalities: 2010

1/6/14 Impressão do Mapa | Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil 2013

atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/imprimir_mapa/ 1/1

Mapa

Realização:

2010 - Esperança de vida ao nascer 06/01/14

LEGENDA

Source: HDI-M Atlas

1/6/14 Impressão do Mapa | Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil 2013

atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/imprimir_mapa/ 1/1

Mapa

Realização:

2010 - Esperança de vida ao nascer 06/01/14

LEGENDA

B. Health transition

B. Health transition

Infant mortality rate in Brazilian Municipalities

Source: HDI-M Atlas

B. Health transition

1/6/14 Impressão do Mapa | Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil 2013

atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/imprimir_mapa/ 1/1

Mapa

Realização:

2010 - Mortalidade até um ano de idade 06/01/14

LEGENDA

1/6/14 Impressão do Mapa | Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil 2013

atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/imprimir_mapa/ 1/1

Mapa

Realização:

1991 - Mortalidade até um ano de idade 06/01/14

LEGENDA

1991 2010

1/6/14 Impressão do Mapa | Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil 2013

atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/imprimir_mapa/ 1/1

Mapa

Realização:

1991 - Mortalidade até um ano de idade 06/01/14

LEGENDA

B. Health transition

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Tota

l Fe

rtili

ty R

ate

(b

irth

s p

er

wo

me

n)

Actual and Predicted Evolution of Total Fertility Rate : Brazil, 1940-2060

40 years

1/3

6 births

2 births

2014

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

C. Fertility decline

C. Fertility decline

Source: HDI-M Atlas

Total fertility rate in Brazilian Municipalities

1991 2010

0,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

0,18

0,20

0,22

0,24

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Fert

ility

rat

e (

bir

th p

er

wo

me

n)

Evolution of the Brazilian age-specific fertility rates: 1980-2030

15 to 19 years old

20 to 29 years old

30 to 39 years old

40 to 49 years old

2014

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

C. Fertility decline

0

5

10

15

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40

45

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55

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

pe

rce

nat

ge o

f b

irth

s

Evolution of births according the the age of the mother: Brazil, 1980-2030

30 to 39 years old

20 to 29 years old

40 to 49 years old

15 to 19 years old

2014

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

C. Fertility decline

1. Improvements in family living conditions, in particular, in the educational achievement of women.

2. Improvements in the status of women, in particular those related to the increase in female labor force participation and labor income.

3. Access to information and orientation on contraceptive methods.

4. Easy and free access to a variety of contraceptive methods.

5. Freedom to choose the contraceptive methods of ones own choice.

Determinants of the Decline in Fertility Rates

C. Fertility decline

C.1. Improvements in living conditions

C.1. Improvements in living conditions

0,50

0,52

0,54

0,56

0,58

0,60

0,62

0,64

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Gin

i In

dex

Evolution of income inequalityBrazil 1976-2011

Source: SAE/PR based on the PNADs from 1976 to 2011.

C.1. Improvements in living conditions

C.1. Improvements in living conditions

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

HD

I

Percentage of municipalities and countries

Distribution of Brazilian municipalities and countries of the World according to HDI, 2010

Source: SAE/PR, based on Demographic Census 2000 and 2010 and HDI as calculated by the UNDP, Human Development Report

Brazil - 2010

World - 2010

Uganda

Netherlands

85%

C.1. Improvements in living conditions

Indicator Public School

AIDS or other sexually transmitted diseases 84

Pregnancy prevention methods 82

Free acess of condoms and other options for pregnacy

prevention64

Percentage of students in the 8th grade who have received

information in school regarding:

Access to sexual and reproductive information:

Brazil - 2009

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisa, Coordenação de População e Indicadores Sociais, Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar 2009.

C.3. Access to information on conceptive methods

C.4. Easy and free access to contraceptives methods and preservatives

TypeQuantity

(million)

30,7

3,6

7,4

3,6

1,0

850

25

0,063

0,773

Male sterilization (Vasectomy) 0,039

Female sterilization (Tubal Ligation) 0,065

Intra Uterine Device (IUD)

Free access to contraceptives methods and

preservatives

Combined pill (Ethinylestradiol and Levonorgestrel)

Source: Helvécio M . M agalhães Júnior (M inistry o f Health), 2014

Minipill (Norethisterone)

Emergency oral contraception (Levonorgestrel)

Monthly injection (Estradiol Valerate and Norethisterone Enanthate)

Quarterly injection (Valerate Medroxyprogesterone)

Diaphragm

Female preservative (Condoms)

Male preservative (Condoms)

C.5. Freedom to choose the preferred contraceptive method

LEI Nº 9.263, DE 12 DE JANEIRO DE 1996.

Art. 2º:Para fins desta Lei, entende-se planejamento familiar como o conjunto

de ações de regulação da fecundidade que garanta direitos iguais de

constituição, limitação ou aumento da prole pela mulher, pelo homem ou pelo

casal.

Parágrafo único: É proibida a utilização das ações a que se refere o caput para

qualquer tipo de controle demográfico

Art. 5º: É dever do Estado, através do Sistema Único de Saúde, em associação,

no que couber, às instâncias componentes do sistema educacional, promover

condições e recursos informativos, educacionais, técnicos e científicos que

assegurem o livre exercício do planejamento familiar.

Art. 9º: Para o exercício do direito ao planejamento familiar, serão oferecidos

todos os métodos e técnicas de concepção e contracepção cientificamente

aceitos e que não coloquem em risco a vida e a saúde das pessoas, garantida a

liberdade de opção.

C.5. Freedom to choose the preferred contraceptive method

Family Planning Law

Law No. 9263, January 12th, 1996

Art. 2º: ..... family planning is understood as the complete set of actions aimed

at regulating fertility ......

Single paragraph: It is forbidden the use of any family plan action for any type

of demographic control.

Art. 5º: It is a State obligation ……. to ensure all the conditions and resources

….. necessary for the free exercise of family planning.

Art. 9º: … It will be offered all contraceptive methods and techniques

scientifically accepted that do not threat health, ensuring freedom of choice.

BC. Health transition and fertility decline

Source: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 3.

D. Demographic bonus

0

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

n)

Evolution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060

Less than 15 or at least 60 years old

Between 15 and 59 years old

65million

2014

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

0

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

pe

rce

nta

ge o

f th

e p

op

ula

tio

n (

%)

Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060

Less than 15 or at least 60 years old

Between 15 and 59 years old

30 p.p.

2014

Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

D. Demographic bonus