Commodity Weather Group, LLC

Energy WeatherSummer Seminar Presentation

Matt RogersApril 15, 2010

Today’s Agenda

• Brief Intro• Latest Summer Outlook• Key Arguments (and Risks)• Atlantic Hurricane Season

Brief Intro

• Matt Rogers, President and Co-Founder of Commodity Weather Group~16 Years in Commodity Weather Support (Energy)

• Commodity Weather Group, LLC– Started in April 2009– Located in Bethesda, MD– Focus on Agriculture and Energy Commodities– 75+ Collective Years’ Experience in Consulting

CWG Summer Outlook

~.4% warmer than running 10Y normal

~2% warmer than running 30Y normal

~6% warmer than 2009 (both JJA and MJJAS)

Month-by-Month

Best Chance for Most Frequent Heat is in the Pacific Northwest and Texas

Main Themes FavorA Cool Start

and a HotterFinish Overall

Key Arguments

Solar

January

Tropical Pacific

AO

Tokyo?

Solar

Jan-50

May-51

Sep-52

Jan-54

May-55

Sep-56

Jan-58

May-59

Sep-60

Jan-62

May-63

Sep-64

Jan-66

May-67

Sep-68

Jan-70

May-71

Sep-72

Jan-74

May-75

Sep-76

Jan-78

May-79

Sep-80

Jan-82

May-83

Sep-84

Jan-86

May-87

Sep-88

Jan-90

May-91

Sep-92

Jan-94

May-95

Sep-96

Jan-98

May-99

Sep-00

Jan-02

May-03

Sep-04

Jan-06

May-07

Sep-08

Jan-10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Monthly Sunspot Number (Jan 1950 to Mar 2010)

1955 1966 1977 1988 1998 2010

BUT: Solar Split

1955: 6.641966: 6.841988: -2.04

1977: -17.211998: -22.08

Tropical Pacific

Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

195819661969197319831992199820102003

Closest North Pacific Fit

April 3, 2010April 3, 1969

Arctic Oscillation

Dec-50

Aug-52

Apr-54

Dec-55

Aug-57

Apr-59

Dec-60

Aug-62

Apr-64

Dec-65

Aug-67

Apr-69

Dec-70

Aug-72

Apr-74

Dec-75

Aug-77

Apr-79

Dec-80

Aug-82

Apr-84

Dec-85

Aug-87

Apr-89

Dec-90

Aug-92

Apr-94

Dec-95

Aug-97

Apr-99

Dec-00

Aug-02

Apr-04

Dec-05

Aug-07

Apr-09

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.512-Month Running AO

1969

Arctic Oscillation Q1

1969 -2.62010 -2.41960 -2.11958 -2.11970 -1.91966 -1.9

Top AO Years HaveClose Fit Pattern

1958 is Best Fit1969 Second

AO vs. ENSO

W-Based -AO1958 x x1966 x x1969 x x1973 1983 1992 1998 x2003 x

January ClueYear Jan GWHDD Summer

2006 714.8 Hot

2002 820.6 Hot

2007 899.9 Hot

2005 926.3 Hot

2000 932.5 Cool

2008 935.9 Cool

2001 964.1 Cool

2010 983.6 ?

2003 1002.8 Cool

2009 1026.4 Cool

2004 1034.1 Cool

What Could Go Wrong?

What Could Go Wrong?

Still not a big hot summer, but main

anomalies are opposite of

expectations.

BigHot

Summer

The pattern type is similar, but the

Midwest is warmer and Texas is much

much warmer!

A New Clue?

A Tokyo Trigger?

A New Clue?

Four of Five Hottest Chicago Summers

were in Same Year as Relatively Cool Tokyo

May Periods

Four of Five Coolest Chicago Summers

were in Same Year as Relatively Warm

Tokyo May Periods

Actually linked to a prevailing pattern in northeast Asia.Look for more info in Energy Weather blogs in May.

Atlantic Tropics FORECAST 2010 2009 NORMAL

NAMED 14 9 10

HURRICANE 8 3 6

MAJOR 3 2 2Gulf Major: Zero or One

2010 1969 1958 1970 1998 20050

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

March Tropical North Atlantic Index

(1) Upper Level Winds Not Expected to be as Favorable as 2005 in Gulf toWestern Caribbean

(2) Very Warm Atlantic Ocean MayFavor Stronger Cape Verde Season

(3) Late Season Timing Possible

H M GM1969 12 5 11958 7 5 01970 5 2 21998 10 3 02005 15 7 4Mean 9.8 4.4 1.4

Commodity Weather Group

Thank You