Impact of recent weather events on Australian agriculture

Jammie Penm

Chief Commodity Analyst

Impact on Australian commodities

Excessive rainfall in November to mid-December:• wheat export forecast down by $480 million in 2010-11• sugar export forecast down by $470 million in 2010-11

The floods in eastern Australia in late December-January:• loss of agricultural production of an additional $1 billion in 2010-11;

including $600-700 million in winter crops $225 million in fruit and vegetables $150 million in cotton $30 million in sorghum

Coal exports 15 million tonnes lower, or $2 to 2.5 billion between December 2010 and March 2011

Impact of Cyclone Yasi

• Banana production in Far North Queensland, valued at $384 million, accounts for around 90 per cent of Australian production

• Sugar production in the region, valued at $240 million in 2008-09, accounts for 20 per cent of Australian production

• No major damage to mining operation, infrastructure and ports

Banana consignments from north Queensland and banana price

Fruit and vegetable prices

In the Melbourne market:

• prices for many vegetables and fruit have shown signs of easing, after increasing in late December and January

• prices for bananas have increased significantly

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables - Melbourne

Index 04Dec=100

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables - Melbourne

Index 04Dec=100

Weekly wholesale prices for selected fruit - Melbourne

Index 04Dec=100

Total winter crop production

Murray–Darling Basin water storage

Total summer crop production

Conclusions

• Loss of agricultural production and exports of around $2.3 billion in 2010-11.

• Prices for many vegetables and fruit have shown signs of easing after floods.

• Markedly higher crop production nationally despite the impact.