16thApril,2019

Castor | Sugar | RM Seed | Jeera

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All India Weather Status

Last week all India Rainfall status: 4th April 2019 to 10th April 2019

• Manipur, Mizoram, Sikkim, Punjab, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana States received

deficit rainfall

• Nagaland and Karnataka states received the excess rainfall

• Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Tamil

Nadu and Kerala states received the large deficit rainfall

• Meghalaya, Tripura, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttarakhand state received the large excess

rainfall

• Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Odisha and Chhattisgarh state received the normal rainfall

• No rainfall is observed in Gujarat State

During the week, rainfall was below Long Period Average (LPA) by 22% over thecountry as a whole.

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st March 2019 to 15th April 2019.

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana,

Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh states received the

deficit rainfall.

• Tripura state received the excess rainfall

• Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Goa, Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala states received large

deficit rainfall.

• West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar states received the large excess rainfall

• Meghalaya, Sikkim, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka states received the normal rainfall.

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 01st March to 15th April 2019 was below LPA by 38% over the

country as a whole.

Weather Forecast:

• Below normal rainfall likely over west Bengal & Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu

& Kashmir; and near normal over the rest of the country during 18th to 24th April.

• Near Normal of below normal day maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except Jammu & Kashmir, Odisha,

south Chhattisgarh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu and West coast of India.

• Development of heat wave conditions is less likely over any parts of the country during 19th to 25th April.

All India Reservoir Status: as on 11th April 2019

Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 91

reservoirs of the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly

bulletin on every Thursday. The total live storage capacity of these 91

reservoirs is 161.993 BCM which is about 63% of the live storage

capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to have been created in

the country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated 11.04.2019, live

storage available in these reservoirs is 46.513 BCM, which is 29% of

total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the

live storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding

periodwas 41.339 BCM and the average of last 10 years live storage

was 45.162 BCM. Thus, the live storage available in 91 reservoirs as

per 11.04.2019 Bulletin is 113% of the live storage of corresponding

period of last year and 103%of storage of average of last ten years.

Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC

Current Crop Scenario Current Crop Scenario

Wheat Change in Acreage: 298.47 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 306.29 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The crop harvesting is ongoing. Matured crop has been affected due to strong wind and rainfall in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Further, crops has suffered damage due to unseasonal rains and moderate to heavy storm in several areas of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat in third week of April-2019. However, climatic conditions were favorable for wheat crop due to rainfall received in winter season. Overall crop condition is below normal to normal. Production: According to NCML Research, Wheat production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 971 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 991 lakh MT

Prediction:Yield is expected to be normal.

Mustard Change in Acreage: 69.37 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 61.25 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The Mustard crop has been harvested. Rainfall in Jan-19 when crop was in seed development stage was beneficial to crop. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field during crop growing. Overall crop condition was satisfactory. Production: According to NCML Research, Mustard production for the year 2018-19 is

estimated to be 82.5 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 84

lakh MT

Gram Change in Acreage: 96.59 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 89.45 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The gram crop has been harvested. Incidence of disease and insect has been observed in some regions like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh & Telangana. Crop in Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan is affected by frost and drought. Overall crop condition is below-normal to normal. Crop in Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan is affected by frost and drought. Overall crop condition was below-normal to normal Production: According to NCML Research, Gram production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 81 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 103 lakh MT

Lentil Change in Acreage: 16.93 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 13.94 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The crop has been harvested. Rainfall received in month of Feb-19 was beneficial for crop yield. Incidence of disease and insect was not observed in field. Overall current crop condition was normal. Production: According to NCML Research, Lentil production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 14.5 lakh MT, whereas, 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 15.3 lakh MT

Fundamental Analysis- CASTOR

• Strong buying activities from millers and stockists kept Castor

seed prices firm in spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Moreover, firmness in Castor seed futures also kept the

domestics market sentiments positive.

• Trader’s view is that strong demand from processors amid

positive crush margins will support prices in coming days.

Medium to long term outlook is positive on expectation of lower

crop production. However, IMD forecast of near normal monsoon

rainfall is likely to keep a check on any significant upward

movement.

• According to the latest second advance estimates by Ministry of

Agriculture, Castor seed production for 2018-19 is estimated to

decline by 21.37 per cent at 11.77 lakh tonnes as compared to 14.97

lakh tonnes last year. The target set by government for 2018-19

castor seed production is 18.31 lakh tonnes.

• According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, Castor

seed production expected to decline to 1.20 to 1.25 million tonnes

in 2018-19 (July-June) against 1.42 million tonnes in the previous

year.

• As per trade sources, the decline in all India castor seed

production is mainly due to lower crop estimates from Gujarat

because of deficient rainfall during monsoon 2018 in major Castor

producing areas of Mehsana, Patan, and Surendranagar districts.

• As per the latest revised second advance estimates for 2018-19

crop by the Department of Agriculture Gujarat, Castor seed

production is estimated to decline by 35.24 per cent at 9.61 lakh

tonnes as against 14.84 lakh tonnes during 2017-18.

• As per the Department of Agriculture Rajasthan, Castor seed

production in 2018-19 is likely to decline at 1.56 lakh tonnes as

compared to 1.66 lakh tonnes during 2017-18.

• Castor seed acreage in Andhra Pradesh & Telangana for the year

2018-19 is 60270 hectares as per the government’s estimates

against last year’s estimate of 57930 hectares, which has

increased by 4 per cent as compared to the previous year. Total

production in the state is estimated to be 0.23 lakh tonnes during

the year 2018-19 compared 0.27 lakh tonnes in 2017-18.

• According to the Solvent Extractors Association of India, export

of castor seed meal during financial year 2018-19 has declined

significantly by 35.83 per cent at 3.67 lakh tonnes as against 5.72

lakh tonnes exported in 2017-18.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 15-04-2019 08-04-2019

%Change

Deesa 5929 5701 3.99

Kadi 5985 5708 4.85

Rajkot 5815 5390 7.88

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Strong buying activities from millers and stockists in most of the spot markets

Bullish

Profit booking at higher levels Bearish

Castor seed production in 2018-19 estimated to decline by 21.37 per cent at 11.77 lakh tonnes

Bullish

Lower production estimates from Gujarat and Rajasthan

Bullish

Export of castor seed meal in 2018-19 has declined significantly by 35 per cent at 3.67 lakh tonnes

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3,6003,9004,2004,5004,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,300

Castor seed: Deesa

Fundamental Analysis- SUGAR

• Domestic sugar prices remained mostly steady with slight

upside at major markets in the country due to limited buying by

bulk buyers.In Mumbai prices were at Rs 3172 to Rs 3232 a

quintal for S-grade and at Rs 3226 to Rs 3330 per quintal for M-

grade Sugar.

• Slight improvement in demand from stockists and bulk

consumers such as soft drink and ice-cream manufacturers was

noted as summer season just started.

• Going ahead such demand will rise and prices are likely to

remain supported until June due to the on-going summer

season but supply glut will also continue to cap the upside.

Lower monthly sale quota for April may also support prices in

the days to come.

• Government has asked mills to export 50 lakh tonnes of sugar

in 2018-19 marketing year (October-September) to liquidate

surplus stock. The government is providing various incentives

to boost sugar exports.

• India's sugar exports rose to 17.44 lakh tonnes so far in the

current marketing year as against about 5 lakh tonnes shipped

in the entire 2017-18. Raw sugar accounted for nearly 8 lakh

tonnes and another 4.3 lakh tonnes are in export pipeline.

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia and Iran are the major export

destinations.

• Sugar mills can sell 18 lakh tonne of the sweetener in the open

market in April 2019. The central government has allocated

monthly sugar quota for sale to each of the 524 mills in the

country. The Centre has also allowed mills to sell their unsold

sugar stocks of March in the month of April.The government

had fixed monthly sugar sale quota at 24.5lakh tonne for March

2019.

• According to the Second advance estimates for 2018-19 crops,

Sugarcane output is estimated at 380.83 million tonnes from

353.22million tonnes during 2017-18.

• India's sugar production is estimated to decline to around 310

lakh tonnes this marketing year from 325 lakh tonnes in the

previous year. Still, the country has surplus stock as annual

domestic demand is around 260 lakh tonnes and mills are

carrying a huge stock from the previous year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 15-04-2019 08-04-2019 %

Change

Kolhapur 3137 3146 -0.28

Kanpur 3235 3238 -0.09

Muzaffar Nagar 3141 3140 0.03

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Limited buying by bulk buyers in most of the markets

Bearish

Expectation of improved demand from soft drink and ice-cream manufacturers

Bullish

Government fixed lower monthly sale quota for April 2019

Bullish

Government asked mills to export 50 lakh tonnes of sugar in 2018-19 marketing year

Bullish

Exports rose to 17.44 lakh tonnes so far in the current marketing year

Bullish

Sugar production estimated to decline to around 310 lakh tonnes from 325 lakh tonnes

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

Sugar: Kolhapur

Fundamental Analysis- RM SEED

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 15-04-2019 08-04-2019 %Change

Jaipur 3868 3873 -0.13

Alwar 3870 3716 4.14

SRI Ganga Nagar

3775 3800 -0.66

• NAFED procurement activities of mustard crop at MSP price of Rs

4200 have started in major producing states giving support to the

domestic price. As on 15th April, NAFED had procured 28.46 thousand

MT in Rajasthan, 1.92 lakh MT from Haryana and 0.47 thousand MT

from Madhya Pradesh. Total procurement reached around 2.22 lakh

MT.

• According to the AGMARK data, all India mustard crop arrivals in the

second week of April is reported at 2.07 Lakh MT which is 40.81

percent higher than the last year arrivals of 1.47 Lakh MT in the same

time periods. Higher arrivals are due to higher production estimate

this year.

• According to the latest report of SEA, all India mustard production for

2018-19 is estimated at 8.5 million MT which is around 18.88 per cent

higher than last year production estimate of 7.15 million MT. Higher

production estimate is due t0 higher sowing acreage and favourable

weather condition in major producing states.

• According to the trade sources, market participants are actively

buying mustard as they are expecting prices to increase in the coming

months due to good demand of mustard meal. The export of mustard

meal is sharply increased due to robust demand from traditional

buyers including South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand.

• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of March 2019 were 50.964

thousand MT (provisional), lower by 36 per cent against 79.643

thousand MT in February 2018. Total exports of rapeseed meal from

April 2018 to March 2019 were 10.51 lakh MT which is 58.28 percent

higher than 2017-18 exports of 6.64 lakh MT in the same time period.

Average FoB price of mustard meal in the month of March is $220 per

tonne which is slightly higher than theFoB price of January of $218 per

tonne.

• All India mustard oil imports from November 2018 to March 2019 is

reported at 0.44 lakh MT which is 66.41 percent lower than the last

year imports of 1.31 lakh MT in the same time period. Lower imports

are due to higher crushing for fulfil mustard meal export demand.

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Starting of procurement activities by the government

Bullish

Higher crop arrivals in the domestic mandis

Bearish

Good demand from the millers Bullish

Higher export meal demand Bullish

Lower imports of mustard oil Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

Oct

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No

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Jan

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Feb

-17

Mar

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Sep

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Oct

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Jan

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Feb

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Mar

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Sep

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Jan

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Feb

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Mar

-19

Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur

Fundamental Analysis- Jeera

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Expectation of higher arrivals in the domestic mandis

Bearish

Higher export demand Bullish

Lower production estimate of Turkey and Syria

Bullish

Higher domestic demand Bullish

Higher production estimate Bearish

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 15-04-2019 08-04-2019 %Change

Unjha 16621 16450 1.04

Rajkot 15000 14500 3.45

Jodhpur 16300 16200 0.62

• According to the AGMARK data, all India jeera arrivals in the

second week of April 2019 is reported at 23.96 thousand MT

which is around 198.75 per cent higher than the last year arrivals

of 8.02 thousand MT in the same time period. Arrivals are higher

as farmers are bring their crop due to higher prevailing domestic

prices.

• As per trade sources India is likely to have exported around

120,000 tonnes Jeera in April-December. Exports of the jeera

have risen due to strong demand from China, Europe, United

States, and West Asia.

• As per market sources, Cumin seed production in Syria and

Turkey is estimated to decline. Syria production is estimated

around 25,000 tonnes this year as major part of their crop has

been damaged and discoloured due to heavy rains. Turkey jeera

production is estimated at 8,000 tonnes as rains have damaged

25 per cent of the crop.As a result, India is becoming the key

supplier in the International market.

• Demand from exporters and bulk buyers are activity buying in the

market as they are expecting demand to increase in the coming

months.

• According to the second advance estimates, production of Jeera

in Gujarat in 2018-19 is expected to be lower by about 25 percent

to 2.23 lakh MT compared to last year’s forecast of 2.97 lakh MT

amid lower acreage in the state due to dry conditions during the

sowing season and expected lower yield .However, Federation of

Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) has estimated output in Gujarat

may be down by only 3 per cent to 1.67 lakh MT and expect an

increase of 20% in Rajasthan to 2.50 lakh MT.

• As per Federation estimate, all India Jeera output is estimated at

be 4.16 Lakh MT in 2019, up by 9 percent from last year due to

jump in production in Rajasthan.

13,000.00

15,000.00

17,000.00

19,000.00

21,000.00

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Jul-

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May

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Jun

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Jun

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May

-18

May

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Jun

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Jul-

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Jan

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Feb

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Mar

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9

Cumin Seed (Jeera) - Unjha

• CAI trims cotton crop size to 321 lakh

bales, lowest since 2009-10

• Cottonseed prices gain 25%, making cattle

feed costlier

• NBHC releases Rabi crop estimates for

the year 2018-19

• IMD predicts good spread of rains this

monsoon

• At 1.44 mt, veg oil imports in March

highest this season

• India aims to up mango exports as govt's

promotional events bear fruit

• India shares with China list of 380

products for exports to bridge trade

deficit

• FSSAI relaxes certification norms for

small organic food producers

• Relief for Maharashtra farmers; grape

exports surge 20% this season

• Containers handled at major ports up 8%

at 9.876 million TEUs in FY19

• Rise in yields will push wheat output to

record high: IIWBR

• To purchase the India Commodity Year

Book 2019, contact us at

research@ncml.com

The Week That Was!

Official Production Estimates Second advance estimates 2018-19& previous years’

estimates: Fourth Advance Estimates 2017-18

Link for commodity-wise and market-

wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrivals/Co

mmodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1550 1750

paddy grade A 1590 1770

Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430

Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450

Bajra 1425 1950

Ragi 1900 2897

Maize 1425 1700

Tur/Arhar 5450 5675

Moong 5575 6975

Urad 5400 5600

Groundnut 4450 4890

Sunflower seed 4100 5388

Soyabean black 3050 3399

Sesamum 5300 6249

Nigerseed 4050 5877

Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150

Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450

RABI

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

Wheat 1735 1840

Barley 1410 1440

Gram 4400 4620

Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475

Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200

Safflower 4100 4945

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago

15-Apr-19

1-Apr-19 16-Mar-19 16-Apr-18

Soybean 3879 3840 3737 3832

RM seed 3868 3882 3810 3921

Sugar 3143 3152 3140 2888

Cotton 13043 12654 12401 11529

Jeera 16621 15856 15920 16042

Castor 5935 5220 5178 4000

PRICE TRACKER

1 According to the report, how much is the stock of Rice as on 01st March 2019?

26.40 mil l ion tonnes

2 Which country is the largest importer of oi l meals from India?

South Korea

3 Wheat Stock with FCI in March 2019 isagainst last year stock

Higher

AGCON QUIZ ANSWERS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!

S.No Name Department Location

1 AnilkumarParvathaneni Risk Gurgaon

2 Kuldip Singh Silo Projects Gurugram

3 Sarita Mittal SCM Officer

4 Praveen Kumar Mundra S&P Ellenabad

5 Nikhil Thakur Risk Delhi

6 Shefali Jain CWIG Gurgaon

7 Vineet Poonia S&P Ellenabad

8 Surender kalwa S&P Ellenabad

9 Satpal S&P Ellenabad

10 Sunny Kumar S&P Ellenabad

11 Yogesh Sanwarmal Sharma IT

Kanjurmarg Mumbai

12 FANEESH TALWAR T&C Gurgaon

13 Ajendra Singh Chauhan Mktyard Gurgaon

AdvisoryTeam

Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Mukesh Agri Analyst Mukesh.u@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG rajiv.ku@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Nahalaxmi. J Client Service Executive: TCIG nahalaxmi.j@ncml.com

Shefali Jain Operation Executive: TCIG shefali.j@ncml.com

Ratanpriya Assistant Manager: TCIG ratnapriya.a@ncml.com

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support ansh.a@ncml.com

Ajendra Singh Chauhan

Mktyard

CONGRATULATIONS !

NAME of the LUCKY WINNER

Disclaimer:

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addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of AGCON. Any

third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of AGCON. AGCON has exercised

reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.

No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, AGCON assumes no liability for any loss resulting

from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are

based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on

which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.

© NCML AGRI BUSINESS CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITED (AGCON) 2019