Commodity Market (de)Regulation: Development Consequences and Prospects Perspectives and Experiences from Africa. By: Kiama Kaara Kenya Debt Relief Network Presented at Civil Society Policy Forum, World Bank/IMF Spring Meeting 2011, Washington DC By Way of Background A Season of Crisis. Multiple/Triple Crisis Across SSA Energy Crisis Food Crisis Political/Governance Crisis Kenya, et al Three Bands Of Growth Fragility and Conflict Risk Anlaysis, EIU 2010 SSA Terms of Trade 1998 2008, WB ARS (Feb 2011) MNCs Profits As a Percentage of firms returns MNCs Profits. As percentage of equity Commodity Prices Crash, Exports Sink Returns on Resource Extraction , Substantial Commodity Prices Increases, then Crash Commodity Devaluations. Change In Prices, July Dec 08 (UNCTAD, The Global Economic Cris, May 09). UNCTAD Explains Transfer Pricing: on $2000, Sale, Tax = $226 Going Forward Crisis point exacerbated by excessive speculation. Commodity markets Central to African economies. Speculation Hurts Macro Economic Framework Design Ferments tensions Responses Arab spring, SSA ( Kenya Unga 30 process) Not necessarily a quantum issue Value addition, etc. Financialization at capitals. Efforts to bring back Price Controls, Regulation Kenya???? Contd it is difficult to identify any consistent policy explanation for this growth performance. The most powerful influences appear to be the impact of civil conflict and the instability of commodity prices The end or decline of conflict in more than a half-dozen countries resulted in an upward shift in the regions growth rate of over two and one-half percentage points. (John Weeks, UNCTAD Report, Conflict and Commodities). Work In Progress THANK YOU! / Asante Sana!!