COMMERCIAL VEHICLES State of the Industry U.S. Trailers · current month statistics van van sub.tot plat- heavy mediumtank: tank: grain/ all total all dollies, grand variable dry

Americas Commercial Transportation Research Co., LLC • www.actresearch.net

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES State of the Industry

U.S. Trailers Contributor to Blue Chip Economic Indicators

and WSJ Economic Forecast Panel

“State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers” is published monthly by Americas Commercial Transportation Research Company, LLC (ACT), 4400 Ray Boll Blvd., Columbus, IN 47203. Phone: 812‐379‐2085, Fax: 812‐378‐5997, e‐mail: [email protected] Copyright 2015 by ACT with all rights reserved. Reproduction, copying, or publication of this report in whole or part is not permitted without prior approval. This document is for internal use only. Questions and subscription requests should be directed to K.W. Vieth, Publisher.

May & YTD 2015 Data Published June 22, 2015

Industry backlog closed May up 34% y/y.

Shipments up 8% versus same month last year, with

ytd volume up 18%.

May production rates jump to second highest level of the year.

BL/BU ratio pushes total industry commitment into

December.

Cancellations remain insignificant for most products; energy sector headwinds continue in tank categories.

Americas Commercial Transportation Research Co., LLC • www.actresearch.net

State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers

June 2015 • U.S. Trailers

Page(s) Summary Observations ........................................................................................................................................... 1

U.S. Trailer Industry Market Statistics .......................................................................................................... 2-8 Current Month Year to Date Current Month versus Past Month Current Month versus Same Month One Year Ago Current 3 Months versus Same 3 Months One Year Ago Year to Date versus Year to Date One Year Ago Select Periods, Annualized

Related Industry Graphs ......................................................................................................................................... 9 ACT U.S. Freight Composite Carrier Net Income & New U.S. Trailer Orders

Total Industry Summary Graphs ....................................................................................................................... 9-10 Net Order Ratio: U.S. Trailers & Chassis and U.S. Class 8 Tractors Build Ratio: U.S. Trailers & Chassis and U.S. Class 8 Tractors Net Order & Build Comparison

Graphs and Data by Equipment Type ............................................................................................................. 11-17 Dry Vans Reefers Flatbeds Dump Trailers Liquid Tanks Bulk Tanks Total Trailers

U.S. Trailer OEMs’ Build Plans ............................................................................................................................. 18 2015 Actual & Forecast Build by Month & Quarter

Glossary .................................................................................................................................................................. 19 BUILD LOCATION: The geography of a built unit reflects the market for which it is destined, NOT the country in which the actual

production takes place. Current N.A. OEM build occurs in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

STATE OF THE INDUSTRY: U.S. TRAILERS

June 2015 • U.S. Trailers • Page 1

Category May‐15 Last 12 Mo May‐15 Last 12 Mo

Backlog 162,154 153,417

Build 25,109 26,726

Inventory 17,817 16,441

New Orders 16,811 19,782

Cancelations 637 657

Net Orders 16,175 19,773

Shipments 23,961 24,371

Total TrailersActual Seasonally Adj.

MAY 2015: Trailer activity continues to point to exceptionally strong activity in 2015, almost certain to reach a cycle peak this year and probably the best in over 15 years. While recent order volumes have been low, and y/y order comps appear weak, this is not indicative of current customer demand. Instead, the combination of the huge surge of orders late last year and a shortage of available build slots this year continues to dampen additional fleet order placement. In fact, underlying order demand could be building; as reports of OEMs unable to accept additional 2015 commitments continue. Most 2016 order books are still not open, although pressure for an earlier than normal opening continues to build. Cancellations are at extremely low levels, another indication of solid fleet investment intentions.

While an authorization of 33’ pup trailers in the upcoming transportation bill appears to face hurdles, our discussions indicate that the impact may be less than previously anticipated. Fleets planning their investment might be happy to move to 33’s and the resulting capacity increase, but they still need trailers for both replacement and fleet growth. Most short term commitments have been made, and a yea or nay will have minimal impact in the short-term.

While still considered “pre-publication and relative to revision” before actual Federal Register distribution, the recent release of the Green House Gas II regulations must be noted. These CV regulations, the first to include commercial trailers, are scheduled to become effective later in the decade. Although more emphasis is on dry vans and reefers, “non-box trailers” including flats, tanks, chassis and most other vocational trailers, termed “non-box trailers,” will also fall under review. A quick assessment of the proposal indicates low-rolling resistance tires and tire inflation systems will be a requirement for both groups, while aerodynamics and lightweight componentry will be additions to van trailer requirements.

With supporting market demand factors remaining positive, our closing comments remain consistent for the third successive month. Freight volumes at advantageous rates will support fleets, and their investment plans will remain robust. Our view that 2015 will be the best trailer market since the late 1990s remains unchanged.

ORDERS: As the accompanying graph indicates, both new and net orders on a seasonally-adjusted basis have remained fairly steady following the massive surge last fall.

CANCELLATIONS: Excluding energy impacted tank categories, there is no cause for concern; fleet commitments continue to remain solid.

BACKLOG: As the industry proceeds through build season, normal patterns would project backlogs to decline through September; that return to growth

may occur earlier this year. May ended with 162k units on the orderboard, up 34% y/y.

BUILD: After April’s slower quarter-opening pace, May’s build rate was up 4% sequentially; the 1,255upd production was the second highest rate of the year. A shorter, holiday impacted schedule resulted in total production of just over 25k units, down 5% m/m. YTD production is up 23%; the 126k trailers built so far this year converts to 134k seasonally adjusted, and a 322k SAAR.

BL/BU: This measure fell 0.6 months in May, ending the month at 6.2 months. At current build rates, the industry is committed into early December. There is wide variance between trailer categories; total van backlog stretches into early 2016, while flats and dump backlogs go to the Sept/Oct timeframe.

BUILD PLAN: We currently project build rates to remain in the 1,225 to 1,240 range for the remainder of 2015. The dashboard pages that start on page 11 of this report provide perspective on most trailer categories, as well as the total industry.

INVENTORY: Although up for the second straight month, inventory remains well under control. On a seasonally adjusted basis, inventory has been little changed since early 2014. The above plot demonstrates that stability.

SHIPMENTS: Volume was off 8% sequentially, but that was the result of the shortest May production schedule since 2010. The industry shipped almost 24k trailers last month. YTD volume of 119k is up 22% versus last year, converting to a 312k SAAR.

CURRENT MONTH STATISTICS

VAN VAN SUB.TOT PLAT- HEAVY MEDIUM TANK: TANK: GRAIN/ ALL TOTAL ALL DOLLIES, GRANDVARIABLE DRY REEFER VANS FORM LOWBED LOWBED DUMP LIQUID BULK COMM OTHER TRAILERS CHASSIS ETC. TOTAL . Backlog 107,397 30,251 137,648 11,116 1,153 1,383 3,193 3,164 779 2,320 1,399 162,154 1,181 2,687 166,022 . Build 14,270 3,693 17,963 2,926 389 683 692 604 342 746 765 25,109 1,025 678 26,812 . Inventory 14,496 1,312 15,808 891 102 207 104 273 127 190 115 17,817 1,479 2,410 21,705 . New Orders 7,397 3,127 10,524 2,241 317 737 893 436 190 820 653 16,811 360 7 17,178 . Orders Cancel 37 37 74 150 43 28 7 74 201 39 21 637 - 165 802 . Net Orders 7,360 3,090 10,450 2,091 274 708 886 362 (10) 781 632 16,175 360 (158) 16,376 . Factory Shipments 13,392 3,467 16,859 2,850 383 689 682 658 330 746 764 23,961 1,700 525 26,186

PERFORMANCE STATISTICS: May 20 Days . Orders Cancel: % BL 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.2% 2.3% 25.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 6.1% 0.5% . Net Orders: un/dy. 368 155 523 105 14 35 44 18 (1) 39 32 809 18 (8) 819 . Build: units/day 714 185 898 146 19 34 35 30 17 37 38 1,255 51 34 1,341 . Backlog/Build Ratio 7.2 7.8 7.3 3.6 2.8 1.9 4.4 5.0 2.2 3.0 1.7 6.2 1.1 3.8 5.9 in months**

. FS: units/day 670 173 843 143 19 34 34 33 17 37 38 1,198 85 26 1,309 . Net Order/FS @ ratio 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.6 (0.0) 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.2 (0.3) 0.6

*Data sourced from trailer OEMs by ACT Research Co., LLC Data not seasonally adjusted.** Backlog/Build ratio calculated using per day build multiplied by fixed number of days (21).Note: All Other Trailers includes pole & logging, livestock, refuse/transfer, and other miscellaneous trailer types.

May 2015

U.S. TRAILER INDUSTRY STATISTICS*UNITED STATES

TRAILERS


YEAR TO DATE STATISTICS

VAN VAN SUB.TOT PLAT- HEAVY MEDIUM TANK: TANK: GRAIN/ ALL TOTAL ALL DOLLIES, GRANDVARIABLE DRY REEFER VANS FORM LOWBED LOWBED DUMP LIQUID BULK COMM OTHER TRAILERS CHASSIS ETC. TOTAL . Backlog 107,397 30,251 137,648 11,116 1,153 1,383 3,193 3,164 779 2,320 1,399 162,154 1,181 2,687 166,022 . Build 72,893 18,038 90,931 13,644 1,826 3,303 3,273 3,223 1,765 3,770 3,870 125,605 6,221 3,841 135,668 . Inventory 14,496 1,312 15,808 891 102 207 104 273 127 190 115 17,817 1,479 2,410 21,705 . New Orders 60,097 20,537 80,634 12,364 1,829 3,213 3,932 3,417 1,082 3,607 4,014 114,092 1,806 1,211 117,109 . Orders Cancel 1,213 1,013 2,226 683 135 124 47 709 1,839 169 132 6,063 - 165 6,228 . Net Orders 58,884 19,524 78,408 11,681 1,694 3,090 3,885 2,708 (757) 3,439 3,882 108,029 1,806 1,046 110,881 . Factory Shipments 67,616 17,428 85,044 13,419 1,890 3,256 3,270 3,168 1,707 3,770 3,866 119,390 6,518 4,354 130,262

PERFORMANCE STATISTICS: May 105 Days . Orders Cancel: % BL 1.1% 3.3% 1.6% 6.1% 11.7% 8.9% 1.5% 22.4% 236.1% 7.3% 9.4% 3.7% 0.0% 6.1% 3.8% . Net Orders: un/dy. 561 186 747 111 16 29 37 26 (7) 33 37 1,029 17 10 1,056 . Build: units/day 694 172 866 130 17 31 31 31 17 36 37 1,196 59 37 1,292 . Backlog/Build Ratio 7.4 8.4 7.6 4.1 3.2 2.1 5 4.9 2.2 3.1 1.8 6.5 0.9 3.5 6.1 in months**

. FS: units/day 644 166 810 128 18 31 31 30 16 36 37 1,137 62 41 1,241 . Net Order/FS @ ratio 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 (0.4) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.9

*Data sourced from trailer OEMs by ACT Research Co., LLC Data not seasonally adjusted.** Backlog/Build ratio calculated using per day build multiplied by fixed number of days (21).Note: All Other Trailers includes pole & logging, livestock, refuse/transfer, and other miscellaneous trailer types.

May 2015


TRAILERS


CURRENT MONTH VS. PAST MONTH

VAN VAN SUB.TOT PLAT- HEAVY MEDIUM TANK: TANK: GRAIN/ ALL TOTAL ALL DOLLIES, GRAND

DRY REEFER VANS FORM LOWBED LOWBED DUMP LIQUID BULK COMM OTHER TRAILERS CHASSIS ETC. TOTAL

BACKLOG: a.CURRENT MO. 107,397 30,251 137,648 11,116 1,153 1,383 3,193 3,164 779 2,320 1,399 162,154 1,181 2,687 166,022 b.PAST MO. 114,307 30,854 145,161 11,951 1,268 1,357 2,955 3,406 1,130 2,284 1,527 171,040 1,846 3,523 176,409 UNIT CHANGE a-b (6,910) (603) (7,513) (835) (115) 26 238 (242) (352) 36 (128) (8,885) (665) (836) (10,386) % CHANGE -6.0% -2.0% -5.2% -7.0% -9.1% 1.9% 8.1% -7.1% -31.1% 1.6% -8.4% -5.2% -36.0% -23.7% -5.9% BUILD: a.CURRENT MO. 14,270 3,693 17,963 2,926 389 683 692 604 342 746 765 25,109 1,025 678 26,812 b.PAST MO. 15,096 4,066 19,162 2,948 371 705 665 640 352 783 841 26,467 1,571 733 28,770 UNIT CHANGE a-b (826) (373) (1,199) (22) 18 (23) 27 (36) (10) (37) (76) (1,358) (546) (55) (1,959) % CHANGE -5.5% -9.2% -6.3% -0.7% 4.9% -3.2% 4.1% -5.6% -2.9% -4.7% -9.0% -5.1% -34.8% -7.5% -6.8% INVENTORY: a.CURRENT MO. 14,496 1,312 15,808 891 102 207 104 273 127 190 115 17,817 1,479 2,410 21,705 b.PAST MO. 13,618 1,086 14,704 827 96 213 98 322 115 187 110 16,672 2,154 2,257 21,083 UNIT CHANGE a-b 878 226 1,104 64 6 (6) 6 (49) 12 4 5 1,145 (675) 153 623 % CHANGE 6.4% 20.8% 7.5% 7.7% 6.3% -3.0% 6.1% -15.2% 10.0% 0 4.5% 6.9% -31.4% 6.8% 3.0% NEW ORDERS: a.CURRENT MO. 7,397 3,127 10,524 2,241 317 737 893 436 190 820 653 16,811 360 7 17,178 b.PAST MO. 9,234 3,348 12,582 2,330 369 694 488 816 179 866 772 19,096 597 135 19,827 UNIT CHANGE a-b (1,837) (221) (2,058) (89) (52) 43 405 (380) 11 (46) (119) (2,284) (237) (128) (2,649) % CHANGE -19.9% -6.6% -16.4% -3.8% -14.0% 6.1% 83.0% -46.6% 6.2% -5.3% -15.4% -12.0% -39.7% -94.8% -13.4%

CANCELLATION RATE (BL): a.CURRENT MO. 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.2% 2.3% 25.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 6.1% 0.5% b.PAST MO. 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0% 0.2% 3.3% 16.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% PP CHANGE (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) 2.2 0.1 0.1 (0.9) 8.8 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) - 6.1 (0.1) NET ORDERS: a.CURRENT MO. 7,360 3,090 10,450 2,091 274 708 886 362 (10) 781 632 16,175 360 (158) 16,376 b.PAST MO. 8,922 3,222 12,144 2,143 350 667 483 704 (12) 826 747 18,052 597 135 18,783 UNIT CHANGE a-b (1,562) (132) (1,694) (52) (76) 41 403 (342) 2 (44) (115) (1,877) (237) (293) (2,407) % CHANGE -17.5% -4.1% -13.9% -2.4% -21.6% 6.1% 83.4% -48.6% -16.7% -5.4% -15.4% -10.4% -39.7% -217.0% -12.8%

FACTORY SHIPMENTS a.CURRENT MO. 13,392 3,467 16,859 2,850 383 689 682 658 330 746 764 23,961 1,700 525 26,186 b.PAST MO. 14,812 3,898 18,710 2,949 421 710 690 602 345 783 849 26,059 955 763 27,777 UNIT CHANGE a-b (1,420) (431) (1,851) (99) (38) (21) (8) 56 (15) (37) (85) (2,098) 745 (238) (1,591) % CHANGE -9.6% -11.1% -9.9% -3.4% -9.0% -3.0% -1.2% 9.3% -4.3% -4.7% -10.0% -8.1% 78.0% -31.2% -5.7%

*Data sourced from trailer OEMs by ACT Research Co., LLC Data not seasonally adjusted.Note: All Other Trailers includes pole & logging, livestock, refuse/transfer, and other miscellaneous trailer types.


TRAILERS

May 2015


UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: CURRENT MONTH VS. SAME MONTH ONE YEAR AGO



BACKLOG: a.CURRENT MO. 107,397 30,251 137,648 11,116 1,153 1,383 3,193 3,164 779 2,320 1,399 162,154 1,181 2,687 166,022 b. SAME MO.YR AGO 81,800 19,267 101,067 7,240 913 1,734 1,973 3,253 1,084 2,837 1,267 121,368 6,309 2,763 130,440 UNIT CHANGE a-b 25,597 10,984 36,581 3,876 240 (351) 1,220 (89) (305) (517) 132 40,786 (5,128) (76) 35,582 % CHANGE 31.3% 57.0% 36.2% 53.5% 26.3% -20.3% 61.8% -2.7% -28.2% -18.2% 10.4% 33.6% -81.3% -2.8% 27.3% BUILD: a.CURRENT MO. 14,270 3,693 17,963 2,926 389 683 692 604 342 746 765 25,109 1,025 678 26,812 b. SAME MO.YR AGO 12,400 3,438 15,838 2,292 328 590 598 701 251 913 677 22,188 693 255 23,136 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,870 255 2,125 634 61 92 94 (97) 91 (167) 88 2,921 332 423 3,676 % CHANGE 15.1% 7.4% 13.4% 27.7% 18.6% 15.7% 15.7% -13.8% 36.1% -18.3% 13.0% 13.2% 47.9% 165.9% 15.9% INVENTORY: a.CURRENT MO. 14,496 1,312 15,808 891 102 207 104 273 127 190 115 17,817 1,479 2,410 21,705 b. SAME MO.YR AGO 14,187 986 15,173 626 96 173 70 358 57 233 83 16,869 1,292 1,537 19,698 UNIT CHANGE a-b 309 326 635 265 6 33 34 (85) 70 (42) 32 948 187 873 2,007 % CHANGE 2.2% 33.1% 4.2% 42.3% 6.3% 19.2% 48.6% -23.7% 122.8% (0) 38.6% 5.6% 14.4% 56.8% 10.2% NEW ORDERS: a.CURRENT MO. 7,397 3,127 10,524 2,241 317 737 893 436 190 820 653 16,811 360 7 17,178 b. SAME MO.YR AGO 12,304 3,254 15,558 2,215 469 567 742 652 412 1,004 686 22,305 2,334 390 25,029 UNIT CHANGE a-b (4,907) (127) (5,034) 26 (151) 169 151 (216) (222) (184) (33) (5,494) (1,974) (383) (7,851) % CHANGE -39.9% -3.9% -32.4% 1.2% -32.3% 29.8% 20.4% -33.1% -53.8% -18.3% -4.8% -24.6% -84.6% -98.2% -31.4%

CANCELLATION RATE (BL): a.CURRENT MO. 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.2% 2.3% 25.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 6.1% 0.5% b. SAME MO.YR AGO 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 3.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% PP CHANGE (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) 0.2 0.8 0.8 (0.9) 1.0 24.1 0.0 (0.4) 0.0 - 6.1 0.2 NET ORDERS: a.CURRENT MO. 7,360 3,090 10,450 2,091 274 708 886 362 (10) 781 632 16,175 360 (158) 16,376 b. SAME MO.YR AGO 12,194 3,232 15,426 2,133 442 546 720 610 394 957 662 21,889 2,334 390 24,613 UNIT CHANGE a-b (4,834) (142) (4,976) (42) (167) 163 166 (248) (404) (176) (30) (5,714) (1,974) (548) (8,237) % CHANGE -39.6% -4.4% -32.3% -2.0% -37.9% 29.8% 23.1% -40.7% -102.6% -18.4% -4.5% -26.1% -84.6% -140.5% -33.5%

FACTORY SHIPMENTS a.CURRENT MO. 13,392 3,467 16,859 2,850 383 689 682 658 330 746 764 23,961 1,700 525 26,186 b. SAME MO.YR AGO 12,402 3,376 15,778 2,353 356 578 612 748 251 913 668 22,257 539 357 23,153 UNIT CHANGE a-b 990 91 1,081 497 27 111 70 (90) 79 (167) 96 1,704 1,161 168 3,033 % CHANGE 8.0% 2.7% 6.9% 21.1% 7.6% 19.2% 11.4% -12.0% 31.5% -18.3% 14.4% 7.7% 215.4% 47.1% 13.1%



TRAILERS

May 2015


UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: PAST 3 MONTHS VS. SAME 3 MONTHS ONE YEAR AGO



BACKLOG: a.CURRENT MO. 107,397 30,251 137,648 11,116 1,153 1,383 3,193 3,164 779 2,320 1,399 162,154 1,181 2,687 166,022 b.SAME 3 MO.YR AGO 81,800 19,267 101,067 7,240 913 1,734 1,973 3,253 1,084 2,837 1,267 121,368 6,309 2,763 130,440 UNIT CHANGE a-b 25,597 10,984 36,581 3,876 240 (351) 1,220 (89) (305) (517) 132 40,786 (5,128) (76) 35,582 % CHANGE 31.3% 57.0% 36.2% 53.5% 26.3% -20.3% 61.8% -2.7% -28.2% -18.2% 10.4% 33.6% -81.3% -2.8% 27.3% BUILD: a.PAST 3 MO. 45,569 11,674 57,243 8,872 1,158 2,162 2,055 1,965 1,124 2,320 2,533 79,432 4,233 2,228 85,893 b.SAME 3 MO.YR AGO 37,687 9,976 47,663 6,560 938 1,683 1,813 2,193 693 2,837 2,050 66,430 1,605 722 68,757 UNIT CHANGE a-b 7,882 1,698 9,580 2,312 220 479 242 (228) 431 (517) 483 13,002 2,628 1,506 17,136 % CHANGE 20.9% 17.0% 20.1% 35.2% 23.5% 28.5% 13.3% -10.4% 62.2% -18.2% 23.6% 19.6% 163.8% 208.6% 24.9% INVENTORY: a.CURRENT MO. 14,496 1,312 15,808 891 102 207 104 273 127 190 115 17,817 1,479 2,410 21,705 b.SAME 3 MO.YR AGO 14,187 986 15,173 626 96 173 70 358 57 233 83 16,869 1,292 1,537 19,698 UNIT CHANGE a-b 309 326 635 265 6 33 34 (85) 70 (42) 32 948 187 873 2,007 % CHANGE 2.2% 33.1% 4.2% 42.3% 6.3% 19.2% 48.6% -23.7% 122.8% (0) 38.6% 5.6% 14.4% 56.8% 10.2% NEW ORDERS: a.PAST 3 MO. 30,030 9,951 39,981 7,199 1,003 2,074 2,169 1,998 544 2,443 2,830 60,241 1,615 565 62,421 b.SAME 3 MO.YR AGO 45,943 11,451 57,394 7,541 1,169 1,545 2,089 2,477 966 3,263 2,444 78,888 3,049 2,437 84,374 UNIT CHANGE a-b (15,913) (1,500) (17,413) (342) (166) 530 80 (479) (422) (820) 386 (18,647) (1,435) (1,872) (21,953) % CHANGE -34.6% -13.1% -30.3% -4.5% -14.2% 34.3% 3.8% -19.3% -43.7% -25.1% 15.8% -23.6% -47.1% -76.8% -26.0% CANCELLATION RATE (BL): a.PAST 3 MO. 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 1.9% 0.3% 2.3% 19.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.6% b.SAME 3 MO.YR AGO 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% PP CHANGE 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 (0.2) 0.2 17.7 (0.2) (0.2) 0.2 - 1.6 0.3 NET ORDERS: a.PAST 3 MO. 29,347 9,530 38,877 6,751 904 1,995 2,145 1,768 (134) 2,329 2,735 57,369 1,615 400 59,384 b.SAME 3 MO.YR AGO 45,783 11,311 57,094 7,335 1,118 1,485 2,065 2,266 902 3,110 2,358 77,733 3,049 2,437 83,219 UNIT CHANGE a-b (16,436) (1,781) (18,217) (584) (214) 509 80 (498) (1,036) (781) 377 (20,364) (1,435) (2,037) (23,836) % CHANGE -35.9% -15.7% -31.9% -8.0% -19.1% 34.3% 3.9% -22.0% -114.9% -25.1% 16.0% -26.2% -47.1% -83.6% -28.6%

FACTORY SHIPMENT a.PAST 3 MO. 44,486 11,297 55,783 8,850 1,227 2,125 2,042 1,987 1,092 2,320 2,536 77,962 4,700 1,965 84,627 b.SAME 3 MO.YR AGO 37,933 9,573 47,506 6,540 1,022 1,637 1,860 2,251 693 2,837 2,011 66,357 1,407 967 68,731 UNIT CHANGE a-b 6,553 1,724 8,277 2,310 205 488 182 (264) 399 (517) 525 11,605 3,293 998 15,896 % CHANGE 17.3% 18.0% 17.4% 35.3% 20.1% 29.8% 9.8% -11.7% 57.6% -18.2% 26.1% 17.5% 234.0% 103.2% 23.1%



TRAILERS

May 2015


YEAR TO DATE VS. YEAR TO DATE ONE YEAR AGO

VAN VAN SUB.TOT PLAT- HEAVY MEDIUM TANK: TANK: GRAIN/ ALL TOTAL ALL DOLLIES, GRANDDRY REEFER VANS FORM LOWBED LOWBED DUMP LIQUID BULK COMM OTHER TRAILERS CHASSIS ETC. TOTAL

BACKLOG: a. CURRENT YTD 107,397 30,251 137,648 11,116 1,153 1,383 3,193 3,164 779 2,320 1,399 162,154 1,181 2,687 166,022 b. YTD ONE YR AGO 81,800 19,267 101,067 7,240 913 1,734 1,973 3,253 1,084 2,837 1,267 121,368 6,309 2,763 130,440

UNIT CHANGE a-b 25,597 10,984 36,581 3,876 240 (351) 1,220 (89) (305) (517) 132 40,786 (5,128) (76) 35,582 % CHANGE 31.3% 57.0% 36.2% 53.5% 26.3% -20.3% 61.8% -2.7% -28.2% -18.2% 10.4% 33.6% -81.3% -2.8% 27.3% BUILD: a. CURRENT YTD 72,893 18,038 90,931 13,644 1,826 3,303 3,273 3,223 1,765 3,770 3,870 125,605 6,221 3,841 135,668 b. YTD ONE YR AGO 58,711 15,194 73,905 9,701 1,450 2,495 2,878 3,507 1,020 4,611 2,991 102,558 2,072 1,467 106,097

UNIT CHANGE a-b 14,182 2,844 17,026 3,943 376 808 395 (284) 746 (841) 879 23,047 4,149 2,374 29,570 % CHANGE 24.2% 18.7% 23.0% 40.6% 25.9% 32.4% 13.7% -8.1% 73.1% -18.2% 29.4% 22.5% 200.2% 161.8% 27.9% INVENTORY: a. CURRENT YTD 14,496 1,312 15,808 891 102 207 104 273 127 190 115 17,817 1,479 2,410 21,705 b. YTD ONE YR AGO 14,187 986 15,173 626 96 173 70 358 57 233 83 16,869 1,292 1,537 19,698

UNIT CHANGE a-b 309 326 635 265 6 33 34 (85) 70 (42) 32 948 187 873 2,007 % CHANGE 2.2% 33.1% 4.2% 42.3% 6.3% 19.2% 48.6% -23.7% 122.8% (0) 38.6% 5.6% 14.4% 56.8% 10.2% NEW ORDERS: a. CURRENT YTD 60,097 20,537 80,634 12,364 1,829 3,213 3,932 3,417 1,082 3,607 4,014 114,092 1,806 1,211 117,109 b. YTD ONE YR AGO 82,418 20,800 103,218 11,785 1,948 2,408 3,311 3,776 1,715 5,259 3,256 136,675 7,751 2,541 146,967

UNIT CHANGE a-b (22,321) (263) (22,584) 579 (119) 805 621 (359) (633) (1,651) 758 (22,583) (5,945) (1,330) (29,858) % CHANGE -27.1% -1.3% -21.9% 4.9% -6.1% 33.4% 18.8% -9.5% -36.9% -31.4% 23.3% -16.5% -76.7% -52.3% -20.3% CANCELLATION RATE (BL): a. CURRENT YTD 1.1% 3.3% 1.6% 6.1% 11.7% 8.9% 1.5% 22.4% 236.1% 7.3% 10.0% 3.7% - 6.1% 3.8% b. YTD ONE YR AGO 2.7% 0.9% 2.4% 7.9% 8.3% 5.3% 1.3% 12.9% 7.6% 8.7% 9.4% 3.3% - - 3.1%

PP CHANGE (1.6) 2.5 (0.7) (1.7) 3.4 3.6 0.2 9.5 228.5 (1.4) 0.6 0.4 - - 0.7 NET ORDERS: a. CURRENT YTD 58,884 19,524 78,408 11,681 1,694 3,090 3,885 2,708 (757) 3,439 3,882 108,029 1,806 1,046 110,881 b. YTD ONE YR AGO 80,202 20,634 100,836 11,216 1,872 2,316 3,285 3,355 1,632 5,011 3,142 132,665 7,751 2,541 142,957

UNIT CHANGE a-b (21,318) (1,110) (22,428) 465 (178) 774 600 (647) (2,389) (1,573) 740 (24,636) (5,945) (1,495) (32,076) % CHANGE -26.6% -5.4% -22.2% 4.1% -9.5% 33.4% 18.3% -19.3% -146.4% -31.4% 23.6% -18.6% -76.7% -58.8% -22.4% FACTORY SHIPMENTS: a. CURRENT YTD 67,616 17,428 85,044 13,419 1,890 3,256 3,270 3,168 1,707 3,770 3,866 119,390 6,518 4,354 130,262 b. YTD ONE YR AGO 54,560 14,684 69,244 9,626 1,541 2,450 2,944 3,488 1,025 4,611 2,929 97,858 1,852 1,447 101,157

UNIT CHANGE a-b 13,056 2,744 15,800 3,793 349 806 326 (320) 682 (841) 937 21,532 4,666 2,907 29,105 % CHANGE 23.9% 18.7% 22.8% 39.4% 22.6% 32.9% 11.1% -9.2% 66.5% -18.2% 32.0% 22.0% 251.9% 200.9% 28.8%



TRAILERS

May 2015


SELECT PERIODS: ANNUALIZED



BACKLOG**:. CURRENT MO. 107,397 30,251 137,648 11,116 1,153 1,383 3,193 3,164 779 2,320 1,399 162,154 1,181 2,687 166,022 . 3 MO AGO 123,619 32,395 156,014 13,236 1,407 1,550 2,962 3,362 2,037 2,311 1,200 184,080 3,799 4,515 192,394 . 6 MO AGO 103,779 26,209 129,988 11,996 1,388 1,575 2,237 3,772 2,945 2,664 1,321 157,887 2,461 5,125 165,473 . 12 MO AGO 81,800 19,267 101,067 7,240 913 1,734 1,973 3,253 1,084 2,837 1,267 121,368 6,309 2,763 130,440 BUILD:. CURRENT MO. 171,240 44,316 215,556 35,112 4,668 8,192 8,304 7,248 4,099 8,949 9,180 301,308 12,297 8,136 321,740 . PAST 3 MO. 182,276 46,696 228,972 35,488 4,632 8,648 8,220 7,860 4,498 9,280 10,132 317,729 16,930 8,912 343,572 . PAST 6 MO. 170,228 42,654 212,882 31,530 4,336 7,674 7,616 7,970 4,383 9,263 9,276 294,930 13,731 10,062 318,723 . PAST 12 MO. 169,273 41,686 210,959 29,821 4,276 7,238 7,459 8,248 3,979 10,064 9,214 291,258 14,260 8,427 313,945 INVENTORY**:. CURRENT MO. 14,496 1,312 15,808 891 102 207 104 273 127 190 115 17,817 1,479 2,410 21,705 . 3 MO AGO 13,413 935 14,348 882 110 170 96 291 94 205 142 16,338 1,946 2,147 20,431 . 6 MO AGO 11,076 819 11,895 762 109 158 97 317 77 227 142 13,784 2,927 2,523 19,234 . 12 MO AGO 14,187 986 15,173 626 96 173 70 358 57 233 83 16,869 1,292 1,537 19,698 NEW ORDERS:. CURRENT MO. 88,764 37,524 126,288 26,892 3,805 8,840 10,716 5,232 2,285 9,840 7,837 201,736 4,315 84 206,134 . PAST 3 MO. 120,120 39,804 159,924 28,796 4,012 8,298 8,676 7,992 2,176 9,771 11,319 240,964 6,458 2,260 249,682 . PAST 6 MO. 180,086 52,868 232,954 31,242 4,255 7,575 9,314 8,234 4,232 8,997 9,794 316,597 11,171 5,516 333,284 . PAST 12 MO. 197,490 54,330 251,820 35,428 4,832 7,356 8,644 9,271 6,255 10,017 9,640 343,263 9,131 8,521 360,916 CANCELLATION RATE (BL):. CURRENT MO. 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.2% 2.3% 25.7% 1.7% 1.6% 0.4% - 6.1% 0.5%. PAST 3 MO. 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 1.9% 0.3% 2.3% 19.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.6%. PAST 6 MO. 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 2.5% 1.6% 0.4% 3.6% 18.5% 1.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6%. PAST 12 MO. 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 1.4% 2.3% 1.5% 0.3% 2.7% 9.9% 1.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6%

NET ORDERS:. CURRENT MO. 88,320 37,080 125,400 25,092 3,289 8,500 10,632 4,344 (121) 9,377 7,584 194,097 4,315 (1,896) 196,516 . PAST 3 MO. 117,388 38,120 155,508 27,004 3,616 7,979 8,580 7,072 (536) 9,314 10,940 229,477 6,458 1,600 237,535 . PAST 6 MO. 177,466 50,738 228,204 29,770 3,865 7,284 9,180 6,756 50 8,574 9,470 303,154 11,171 5,186 319,511 . PAST 12 MO. 194,869 52,670 247,539 33,700 4,516 7,073 8,551 8,162 3,674 9,547 9,314 332,076 9,131 8,349 349,557

FACTORY SHIPMENTS:. CURRENT MO. 160,704 41,604 202,308 34,200 4,596 8,268 8,184 7,896 3,960 8,949 9,168 287,529 20,400 6,300 314,229 . PAST 3 MO. 177,944 45,188 223,132 35,400 4,908 8,500 8,168 7,948 4,368 9,280 10,144 311,848 18,800 7,860 338,508 . PAST 6 MO. 163,390 41,668 205,058 31,244 4,470 7,576 7,594 8,064 4,284 9,263 9,282 286,835 16,628 10,292 313,755 . PAST 12 MO. 168,965 41,360 210,325 29,542 4,331 7,205 7,404 8,336 3,909 10,064 9,161 290,277 14,073 7,554 311,904

** Since BACKLOG and INVENTORY are non-additive, 3,6, and 12 month data points are actuals.


TRAILERS

May 2015



TL Carrier Database:TL Carrier Net Income (Ex QLTY, SWFT, UACL) & New US Trailer Orders

Year over Year Percent ChangeQ1' 10 - Q1 '15

ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2015

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 410 11 12 13 14 15

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

-25

Y/Y % Chg.Carrier Income Y/Y % Chg.Total Trailer GO Y/Y % Chg.

ACT U.S. Freight Composite Q/Q at SAAR, Y/Y

Q1'10 - Q4'16

Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2015

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 410 11 12 13 14 15 16

0

2

4

6

8

10

-2

-4

-6

Percent Change

+3.2%

ANN. AVG.

+3.0% +4.3%

TRAILER INDUSTRY NET ORDERSJanuary '10 - May '15, 3 Month Moving Average


10 11 12 13 140

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Units (000s)

Total Vans All Other Trailers Total Industry Series 5

ACT Freight Composite Our 3% projection for 2015 freight growth is the result of a recovery from the lackluster Q1 performance for both freight and the overall economy.

TL Carrier Net Income & New Trailer Orders

Although the trailer comparison falls into the red for the first time since Q1’13, it is a reaction to the solid gains posted through all of CY14. Fleet financials should remain solid through 2015.

Trailer Industry Net Orders

Near-full 2015 orderboards continue to hold order volumes down. Unbooked orders are reported to be building, awaiting the official opening of 2016 orderboards.


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

-5

-10

-15

-20

Units (000s)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5Trailer:Tractor Ratio

NET ORDER RATIOU.S. TRAILERS & U.S. CL.8 TRACTORS

3 Month Moving Averages, January '10 - May '15


CL. 8TRACTORS

TRAILERS

TRAILER:TRACTORORDER RATIO (Right Axis)

TOTAL TRAILERS: Past 12 Months NET ORDERS & Actual BUILD

January '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Units (000s)

12MMA NO BUILD

10 11 12 13 14 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-5

-10

-15

Units (000s)

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.0

Trailer:Tractor Ratio

BUILD RATIOU.S. TRAILERS and U.S. CL.8 TRACTORS

3 Month Moving Averages, January '10 - May '15


CL. 8TRACTORS

TRAILERS

BUILD RATIO(Right Axis)

Net Order Ratio – U.S. Trailers & U.S. Cl 8 Tractors

May’s trailer orders pull this measure off the bottom of the usual operating range, growing to the best level since January.

Build Ratio – U.S. Trailers & U.S. Cl 8 Tractors

Stability continues to be the story here, as trailer and tractor build have tracked closely for more than a year.

Total Trailer Net Order and Build Comparison

Actual build and NO 12MMA have remained in synch for three straight months, as the industry finds equilibrium. Expect orders to continue to slide through the summer.

Dry Vans May 2015 M/M Y/Y YTD

Backlog -6% +31%

Build (total) -6% +15% +24%

Inventory +6% +2%

New Orders -20% -40% -27%

Cancel Rate (of BL) 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%

Net Orders -18% -40% -27%

Factory Shipments -10% +8% +24%


FS tracking to forecast; matches 6-month

average.

BL/BU ratio shows delivery commitments

push into early 2016 at current rates.

May build rate 714upd. We project rates

at or above 700upd through year-end.

Net orders lowest since mid-2013; reac-

tion to early commitments last fall. -50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Y/Y % ChangeUnits in 000's

Factory Shipments

Y/Y % Ch

Monthly

6 Mo Avg

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% Cancel of BLUnits in 000's

Net Orders

Orders (L)

% Cancel (R)

CancelRange (R)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Months Units in 000's

Backlog & BL/BU Ratio

BL/BU Ratio (R)

Backlog (L)

BL/BURange (R)

60.2

116.6

129.5134.6

155.9

181.3

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Shipments in 000's

Industry Cycle

12MMT

Annual

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Build - Total Units

Build Actual

Build Forecast

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Build - Units per Day

Build Actual

Build Forecast

Reefers May 2015 M/M Y/Y YTD

Backlog -2% +57%

Build (total) -9% +7% +19%

Inventory +21% +33%

New Orders -7% -4% -1%


Net Orders -4% -4% -5%



Industry builds at 185upd rate for second

straight month; production pace remains

at highest level of the recovery.

BL/BU of 7.8 months is the longest of all

trailer categories.

FS tracking for the best year in history;

last 12 months the strongest FS volume

ever for the industry. -10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Factory Shipments

Y/Y % Ch

Monthly

6 Mo Avg

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Net Orders

Orders (L)

% Cancel (R)

CancelRange (R)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



BL/BU Ratio (R)

Backlog (L)

BL/BURange (R)

27.0

33.5 34.1

35.9

38.6

43.5

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Units in 000's

Industry Cycle

12MMT

Annual

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Build - Total Units

Build Actual

Build Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Build Actual

Build Forecast

Flatbeds May 2015 M/M Y/Y YTD

Backlog -7% +54%

Build (total) -1% +28% +41%

Inventory +8% +42%

New Orders -4% +1% +5%


Net Orders -2% -2% +4%



Build rate jumps to highest level of the

recovery.

BL/BU ratio slides to a point more aligned

with the long-term industry average.

May is historically the lowest month for

cancellations; the rate remains uncharac-

teristically high for the second straight

month. -40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.7

3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Factory Shipments

Y/Y % Ch

Monthly

6 Mo Avg

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Net Orders

Orders (L)

% Cancel (R)

CancelRange (R)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Months Shipments in 000's


BL/BU Ratio (R)

Backlog (L)

BL/BURange (R)

7.944

16.031

24.525

22.122

25.749

33.000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Shipments in 000's

Industry Cycle

12MMT

Annual

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Build - Total Units

Build Actual

Build Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Build Actual

Build Forecast

Dump Trailers May 2015 M/M Y/Y YTD

Backlog +8% +62%

Build (total) +4% +16% +14%

Inventory +6% +49%

New Orders +83% +20% +19%


Net Orders +83% +23% +18%



Revised FS data returns this category to

green after a brief stint in yellow.

Bounce-back in orders surprising; at cur-

rent BL/BU ratio, many deliveries likely to

occur at the end of the current construc-

tion season.

BL/BU little-changed for 4 months. -40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Y/Y % ChangeUnits

Factory Shipments

Y/Y % Ch

Monthly

6 Mo Avg

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% Cancel of BLUnits

Net Orders

Orders (L)

% Cancel (R)

CancelRange (R)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Months Units


BL/BU Ratio (R)

Backlog (L)

BL/BURange (R)

4,125

5,993

6,601

5,342

7,078

8,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Unit Shipments

Industry Cycle

12MMT

Annual

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Build - Total Units

Build Actual

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Build Actual

Liquid Tanks May 2015 M/M Y/Y YTD

Backlog -7% -3%

Build (total) -6% -14% -8%

Inventory -15% -24%

New Orders -47% -33% -10%

Cancel Rate (of BL) 2.3% 1.3% 22%

Net Orders -49% -41% -19%

Factory Shipments +9% -12% -9%


May’s FS improve sequentially, match the

sliding 6-month average.

Seasonals point to May as one of the

stronger order months of the year; the

energy sector continues to hold down in-

vestment.

OEMs continue to carefully managing BU,

keeping BU and NO volumes in sync. -60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Y/Y % ChangeUnits

Factory Shipments

Y/Y % Ch

Monthly

6 Mo Avg

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% Cancel of BLUnits

Net Orders

Orders (L)

% Cancel (R)

CancelRange (R)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



BL/BU Ratio (R)

Backlog (L)BL/BU

Range (R)

4.626

6.216

8.212 8.3018.656

7.500

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Shipments in 000's

Industry Cycle

12MMT

Annual

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Build - Total Units

Build Actual

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Build Actual

Bulk Tanks May 2015 M/M Y/Y YTD

Backlog -31% -28%

Build (total) -3% +36% +73%

Inventory +10% +123%

New Orders +6% -54% -37%

Cancel Rate (of BL) 25.7% 1.7% 236%

Net Orders -17% -103% -146%



BL pattern continues tracking amazingly

close to last cyclical downturn, but

trough might not be as deep.

Negative net orders for five months, but

May nearly broke into positive territory.

BL/BU ratio drops below 2012 low; fall-off

in production and FS imminent.

-200%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

-160

-80

0

80

160

240

320

400

480

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Y/Y % ChangeUnits

Factory Shipments

Y/Y % Ch

Monthly

6 Mo Avg

-24%

-12%

0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

1,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% Cancel of BLUnits

Net Orders

Orders (L)

% Cancel (R)

CancelRange (R)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400

3,000

3,600

4,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Months Units


BL/BU Ratio (R)

Backlog (L)

BL/BURange (R)

1,037

2,820

3,329

1,403

3,227

2,750

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Unit Shipments

Industry Cycle

12MMT

Annual

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Build - Total Units

Build Actual

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Build Actual

Total Trailers May 2015 M/M Y/Y YTD

Backlog -5% +34%

Build (total) -5% +13% +23%

Inventory +7% +6%

New Orders -12% -25% -17%


Net Orders -10% -26% -19%



YTD FS up 22% vs same time last year;

convert to a 312k SAAR.

BU rate up 52upd to 1,255upd. Increase

could not offset two fewer days in sched-

ule versus April.

BU of 25.1k units off 5% sequentially.

Project BU above 1,200upd for rest of

year. -20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Factory Shipments

Y/Y % Ch

Monthly

6 Mo Avg

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Net Orders

Orders (L)

% Cancel (R)

CancelRange (R)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



BL/BU Ratio (R)

Backlog (L)

BL/BURange (R)

124.237

204.276

232.037 234.362

268.746

307.350

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Shipments in 000's

Industry Cycle

12MMT

Annual

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Units in 000'sBuild - Total Units

Build Actual

Build Forecast

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Build Actual

Build Forecast

JAN FEB MAR QI APR MAY JUN QII JUL AUG SEP QIII OCT NOV DEC QIV YEARA A A A A A F F F F F F F F F F F

DRY VANS 13,391 13,933 16,203 43,527 15,096 14,270 15,840 45,206 15,840 15,120 15,120 46,080 15,840 13,490 15,400 44,730 179,543 REEFER VANS 3,370 2,994 3,915 10,279 4,066 3,693 3,850 11,609 3,960 3,780 3,885 11,625 4,070 3,610 4,290 11,970 45,483

VAN SUBTOTAL 16,761 16,927 20,118 53,806 19,162 17,963 19,690 56,815 19,800 18,900 19,005 57,705 19,910 17,100 19,690 56,700 225,026

PLATFORMS 2,387 2,385 2,998 7,770 2,948 2,926 2,860 8,734 2,860 2,730 2,835 8,425 2,970 2,470 2,860 8,300 33,229 ALL OTHER TRAILERS 3,848 3,865 4,741 12,454 4,357 4,220 4,400 12,977 4,400 4,200 4,200 12,800 4,400 3,705 4,290 12,395 50,626

TRAILER SUBTOTAL 22,996 23,177 27,857 74,030 26,467 25,109 26,950 78,526 27,060 25,830 26,040 78,930 27,280 23,275 26,840 77,395 308,881

CONTAINERS 4 - - 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - 4 CHASSIS 664 1,325 1,637 3,626 1,571 1,025 1,210 3,806 1,210 1,155 1,155 3,520 1,210 1,045 1,210 3,465 14,417

CONT/CHASSIS SUBTOTAL 668 1,325 1,637 3,630 1,571 1,025 1,210 3,806 1,210 1,155 1,155 3,520 1,210 1,045 1,210 3,465 14,421

DOLLIES/OTHER PRODUCTS 933 680 817 2,430 733 678 770 2,181 770 735 735 2,240 770 665 770 2,205 9,056

GRAND TOTAL 24,597 25,182 30,311 80,090 28,771 26,812 28,930 84,513 29,040 27,720 27,930 84,690 29,260 24,985 28,820 83,065 332,358

Days 21 20 22 63 22 20 22 64 22 21 21 64 22 19 22 63 254 Units per day 1,171 1,259 1,378 1,271 1,308 1,341 1,315 1,321 1,320 1,320 1,330 1,323 1,330 1,315 1,310 1,318 1,308

PREVIOUS BUILD PLANS: TOTAL TRAILER INDUSTRY: MONTHS FROM ACTUAL 7 MONTHS - - 26,532 74,953 - - - - - - - - - - 28,820 83,065 332,358 6 - 23,620 27,082 76,528 27,522 25,420 28,182 81,344 27,962 27,426 27,846 84,434 29,150 24,985 - - - 5 24,801 24,120 27,412 77,263 27,742 25,420 27,412 79,314 28,732 27,636 27,825 84,370 29,260 - - - - 4 25,326 24,420 27,632 77,893 27,742 24,820 28,402 81,774 28,952 27,615 27,930 84,690 - - - - - 3 25,431 24,620 25,652 73,048 27,082 25,520 28,842 83,054 28,930 27,720 - - - - - - - 2 25,641 23,120 26,422 74,339 27,852 25,920 28,820 83,491 29,040 - - - - - - - - 1 24,276 23,320 27,192 76,971 28,292 25,900 28,930 84,513 - - - - - - - - - ACTUAL 24,597 25,182 30,311 80,090 28,771 26,812 - - - - - - - - - - -

NOTE: A = Modeled as actual by ACT Research Co.; F = forecast build plans.

SIX MONTH FORECASTS AND ACTUAL BUILD BY MONTH & QUARTERU.S. TRAILER INDUSTRY BUILD PLANS: 2015

MAY 2015


STATE OF THE INDUSTRY: U.S. TRAILERS


Trailer Glossary & Primer ACT collects data monthly from OEMs within the Trailer Industry Control Group (TICG). The TICG represents over 80% of the factory shipments of the U.S. trailer industry. MARKET INDICATORS:

BACKLOG: The backlog is the number of vehicles that have been ordered but have not yet been built. Backlog is calculable: Past backlog + current net orders – current build = new backlog.

BUILD: Build, or production, pertains to the number of vehicles produced for a given market, NOT the country in which the actual production takes place. When a unit leaves the assembly line it is counted in the build data.

NEW ORDERS: New orders are the total number of orders received by the industry each month. Also referred to as gross orders.

CANCELLATIONS: Cancellations are units that have been ordered previously and are then cancelled. Order and cancellation cannot occur in the same month.

NET ORDERS: New Orders – Cancellations = Net Orders.

INVENTORY: Inventory is the number of units that have been built, but for which no factory shipment has yet taken place. Inventory is a calculable number, rather than an additive, number: Past inventory + current build – current factory shipments = current inventory.

FACTORY SHIPMENTS: Units that have been built and have left the factory.

TRAILERS: A trailer is a vehicle without motive power designed for carrying property and for being drawn by a motor vehicle. The following are sub-groups within trailers:

Dry vans: Totally enclosed trailer for dry cargo.

Reefer vans: A refrigerated van trailer. Used for hauling any product that is temperature sensitive, such as food, film, and medications.

Platforms: A trailer chassis consisting of a flat loading deck without permanent sides or roof.

Low Beds: A trailer designed to carry large and heavy loads where loaded height is critical. Typically see moving large construction equipment.

Dumps: Three types of dump trailers: side, bottom and end. Used in basic industries and construction. Used for aggregates, such as stone, coal and sand.

Tanks: A trailer with a liquid tight vessel to carry liquid or dry bulk freight

Containers: Containers are the boxes that are used in intermodal service to haul either domestic or international goods. Due to international freight flows, there are no international 20’ or 40’ containers built in North America. The containers produced in the North American market are for domestic freight only and are produced in both dry and refrigerated configurations.

Chassis (aka: container chassis): Chassis are the means by which containerized intermodal freight is delivered from steamships and railroads to customers. A container/chassis combination is basically a two-piece dry van.

Dolly, Converter gear: An auxiliary undercarriage assembly consisting of a chassis, fifth wheel, and tow bar used in combination trailer service.

ACT Research Co., LLC, 2015

STATE OF THE INDUSTRY SERIES: U.S. TRAILERS

Documents

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